Survivor 44 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 44 is just around the corner, and just like I did for Survivor 43, I'm going to go through each of the cast and predict where I think they'll land.  As before, I'll give a range of each player on where I expect them to finish.  Hopefully, I do better than the 33% (6/18) I did last season.  And yet again, I'll make a winner pick.  You'll have to wait and see at the end.  And now, here are the players, alphabetically by first name:

Brandon Cottom, 30, Security Specialist from Newtown, PA
Comparables: Danny McCray, Ryan Medrano
I do actually remember Brandon playing for the Seahawks, my favorite team.  Unfortunately, it was only in the preseason, as he never made a final 53-man roster.  I think he'll have a game similar to Danny and/or Ryan, where he gets fairly far, but not the end.  He'll be my favorite and the one I'm rooting for most, so I hope he wins.  But I just can't see it.
Predicted Finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 10th.  Damnit!  Couldn't you have survived one more vote, Brandon?

Bruce Perrault, 46, Insurance Agent from Warwick, RI
Comparables: Eric Abraham, Rocksroy Bailey
I genuinely feel like the best Bruce can do in this game is about Rocksroy's spot, getting eliminated shortly after the merge.  But I think it's more likely he's an early boot, like Eric Abraham.  Also, *SPOILER ALERT*, there's a strong likelihood that Bruce is the one down shown in the preview for 44, and this likely is the first challenge.  Bruce could be a medevac here, and yes, that did factor into my placement for him.
Predicted Finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 18th.  Although I did know that was him being attended to at the challenge, I did not know for sure if he was medically evacuated from the game or not.

Carolyn Wiger, 35, Drug Abuse Counselor from Hugo, MN
Comparables: Lindsay Carmine, Heather Aldret
Carolyn is one of those women who will either be an early boot or get very far.  There's no in-between.  And it's so hard to tell.  Two things: She compared herself to Noura (yikes, but maybe it's good to be that self-aware?), and also she was featured in the promo at the 43 Finale.  So I think she's likely a losing finalist or loses at fire-making like Heather.
Predicted Finish: 7th-2nd
CORRECT, 3rd.  She was indeed a losing finalist!

Carson Garrett, 20, Aerospace Engineering Student from Atlanta, GA
Comparabes: Zach Wurtenberger, Christian Hubicki
Can Carson avoid being an early boot?  On pure appearances alone, I don't think so.  He's going to have a tall task trying to convince his tribe he's older than he is (or more mature than his age).  I think he's got a good head on his shoulders, but I cannot see him getting far.  He's like a younger Christian, which isn't necessarily a good thing.  Also, the next youngest on his starting tribe is 27, so it's going to be tough for him to form bonds.
Predicted Finish: 16th-11th
WRONG.  Carson has already gotten better than 11th.

Claire Rafson, 25, Tech Investor from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Chanelle Howell, Liana Wallace
I see Claire as more of a UTR Liana or a Chanelle that fits in better.  Well, she's got to try to do one of those two things to get far.  I could see it.  Can she accrue just enough agency to get votes at the end and win?  Time will tell.  I think she'll get targeted for being a jury threat in the mid-merge.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 15th.  Claire was robbed!  

Danny Massa, 32, Firefighter from Bronx, NY
Comparables: David Voce, Jonathan Young
Danny is a gym rat who will definitely help his tribe in challenges early on.  But like Voce and Jonathan, I don't see him having too much game acumen.  Like Jonathan, he may slip by just because the others will know he won't win a jury vote or because others might use him as a meat shield.  I can't see him being an early boot due to his kindness and strength.
Predicted Finish: 11th-6th
CORRECT, 7th.  He was more of a strategist and social player than I thought, but he did slip by because people had other targets.

Frannie Marin, 23, Research Coordinator from Cambridge, MA
Comparables: Kellyn Bechtold, Evvie Jagoda
Frannie, the youngest female, may have a story to tell if she gets to the final 3.  It's hard to see her getting there, but it is a possibility.  She's one of several that I feel could literally be anywhere from first boot to a finalist.  But as the youngest female, it's hard to see her winning.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
CORRECT, 8th.  I knew she'd be somewhere in the middle.  Too good socially (and surprisingly good at challenges) to vote out early.

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt, 42, Engineering Manager from Pittsburgh, PA
Comparables: Marya Sherron, Tiffany Seely
Heidi is another woman in her 40s cast to fulfill an archetype.  Tiffany in 41 has done the best of this archetype so far in the new era, which isn't saying much.  So it's fairly safe to say Heidi could be a pre-merge boot.  Hey, some people have to be.
Predicted Finish: 17th-12th
WRONG.  Heidi has already gotten better than 12th.

Helen Li, 29, Product Manager from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Jeanine Zheng, Erika Casupanan
Unfortunately, Asian women in recent seasons have been targeted for being smart.  Helen will somehow have to lower her threat level at some point.  I could see her being a major player if she survives the pre-merge, which I'm going to guess she will.  But since people on this season have seen Season 41, she'll likely become a target since people may see her as the next Erika.
Predicted Finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 16th.  Helen was robbed!

Jaime Lynn Ruiz, 35, Yogi from Mesa, AZ
Comparables: Elie Scott, Noura Salman
My gut feeling is that Jaime will have a tough time finding her footing in this game and will not be included in the majority alliance/vote.  She has a chance to perhaps make big moves and get far, but I don't see it happening.  Her dual profession of yogi/Tiktoker makes me think she's going to possibly annoy people out there.  She seems like the kind of player others won't feel guilty about betraying.
Predicted Finish: 16th-11th
WRONG.  Jaime Lynn has already gotten better than 11th.

Dr. Joshua Wilder, 34, Podiatrist from Atlanta, GA
Comparables: Dr. Peter Baggenstos, Wendell Holland
I'd recommend Dr. Wilder keep his occupation a secret, as people will think he's too smart, rich, or both.  I think he'll do a good job ingratiating himself, but I see a blindside/downfall episode for him in the post-merge.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 12th.  Not off by too much.  He did try to keep his occupation a secret, though.

Kane Fritzler, 25, Law Student from Saskatoon, SK
Comparables: Daniel Strunk
I only included one comparable because if this guy wasn't cast to be Strunk 2.0, then I'm an alien from outer space.  Both are pale, semi-nerdy-looking lawyers with patchy facial hair and light brown hair.  Hopefully for Kane, he will do better than Daniel, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.  The best case is he makes the merge but gets left out of the majority early on.
Predicted Finish: 15th-10th
WRONG.  Kane has already gotten better than 10th.

Lauren Harpe, 31, Elementary School Teacher from Mount Belvieu, TX
Comparables: Shan Smith, Drea Wheeler
I'm getting Shan vibes from Lauren.  She might play a similar game.  I think she has a chance to play a much more UTR game and has a chance of getting fairly far.  She is the perfect age to play Survivor, after all.  She's a divorced elementary school teacher, so she likely can handle conflict and drama.  I'm here for a deep run for Lauren.
Predicted Finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 5th.  I was pretty spot on in my assessment of Lauren, playing a UTR game.

Maddy Pomilla, 28, Charity Projects Manager from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Natalia Azoqa, Molly Byman
Maddy is another that is so hard to pinpoint.  She looks friendly enough, but like Cassidy in 43, I can't see her winning if she gets to the end.  I think she'll either be voted out shortly before the finale or right at the merge.  I'll lean towards merge.  She also could be a losing finalist like Cassidy.
Predicted Finish: 13th-8th
WRONG, 17th.  She continues the "M" curse for women!  I should've seen this coming.

Matt Blankinship, 27, Security Software Engineer from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Hai Giang, Owen Knight
We oddly didn't have a picture of him when the cast was first leaked.  That was also true of Rocksroy, so it leads me to believe Matthew won't get terribly far, either.  He must not have been as important of a player in 44.  
Predicted Finish: 13th-8th
CORRECT, 11th.  Although he should've gotten farther if not for a dumb twist...

Matthew Grinstead-Mayle, 43, Barbershop Owner from Columbus, OH
Comparables: Ben Driebergen, Mike Gabler
Matthew was featured in the season preview slipping on some rock he was trying to climb, so I wonder how that fall affected him.  I'm gonna go on a limb and say he's supposed to be someone we're supposed to remember.  He'll get far, and that fall will either not be enough to take him out or will occur late in the game.
Predicted Finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 13th.  Although I'd bet he would've made it to at least 7th had he not been med-evac'ed from the game.  Huge shame.

Sarah Wade, 26, Management Consultant from Chicago, IL
Comparables: Sarah Wilson, Cassidy Clark
And yet another female that I cannot pinpoint.  My gut says she's a pre-merge boot, like Justine from 43 or Sarah from 41.  She's just got a forgettable face.  Sorry, Sarah!
Predicted Finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 14th.  Although she played a bit better than I thought she would...

Yamil "Yam-Yam" Arocho, 36, Salon Owner from San Juan, PR
Comparables: Naseer Muttalif, Ricard Foye
Yam Yam was also featured in the preview, and he was featured last (as in he'll be the one we remember most).  He's got to get far, right?  I debated putting him as my winner pick, considering how out of the box the winners have been in this new era.  Could he?
Predicted Finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 1st.  I was so close to picking the winner, too!  Damn, I knew I should've picked Yam-Yam!

All right, based on ALL of that, how would a boot order go based on their predicted finishes?

18th: Bruce Perrault
17th: Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt
16th: Sarah Wade
15th: Carson Garrett
14th: Jaime Lynn Ruiz
13th: Kane Fritzler
12th: Matt Blankinship
11th: Maddy Pomilla
10th: Danny Massa
9th: Frannie Marin
8th: Dr. Joshua Wilder
7th: Claire Rafson
6th: Brandon Cottom
5th: Helen Li
4th: Carolyn Wiger
3rd: Yamil "Yam Yam" Arocho
2nd: Matthew Grinstead-Mayle
1st: Lauren Harpe

Yep, Lauren is my winner pick for 44!  So far, my winner picks in the new era have placed 9th, 1st, and 4th.  Let's hope she doesn't pull a Lindsay Carmine and go from favorite to pre-merge boot.  I decided against Yam-Yam because typically, in Survivor history, people with accents have not done well at the final tribal council (See Tai Trang).  The only winner in Survivor history you could say had a foreign accent was Sandra, which her accent is slightly Puerto Rican, but still very intelligible.  But I will be rooting for Yam Yam along with Brandon and Jaime (Follow her on Tiktok).  Yam Yam would be the first Hispanic male to win if he could.  

As for actual winners, my pre-season placement for them was 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), and 18th (Gabler).  Well, at least if a woman wins, I'm pretty close.  Watch Bruce end up winning now.  

Well, not too bad!  I placed 8/18 (44%) right this time!  And I was soooo close to the winner pick.  Now the people that ended up winning, I placed them 3rd, 1st, 18th, and 3rd again.  And my winner picks have finished 9th, 1st, 4th, and 5th.  This season, I most overestimated Matthew (left with injury, not my fault) and Helen.  I most underestimated Heidi, who went from 2nd boot (my prediction) to 2nd place.  Also Carson, who I thought would be more of a Zach Wurtenberger than a Sami or Xander.

My initial thoughts of the Survivor 43 and 44 casts

 With the casts of Survivor's 43 and 44 leaking, I thought I'd give about a one or two sentence thought on each player.  It'll be interesting to come back after each of these seasons and see how close my first impressions were.

43:

Cassidy Clark - Definitely a bombshell, I think someone or a group of people will find her intimidating.  Mid-merge boot at best.  

Cody Assenmacher - He seems like he'll be one of the more interesting characters.  I could easily see him getting blindsided and having an all-time great reaction.

Dwight Moore - Could be a finale goat or a forgettable boot.  I'm not sure if we're supposed to get too attached to him.

Elie Scott - Likely targeted for being the next Parvati, as many women have before her.  Can she lower her threat level?  

Geo Bustamante - He looks like he says "Bro" a lot.  I cannot see him winning.  

Jay Jones - Will he be more Rocksroy or more Deshawn?  If he's more Deshawn I could see him doing well.

Jeanine Zheng - My dark horse for the season, she looks smart and mature for her age and I could see a deep run, if she can survive the pre-merge.

Jesse Lopez - My pre-pre-season winner pick.  He got a great confessional in the preview for the season and no pure Latino man has ever won Survivor.  About time to change that.

Justine Brennan - Anything from a very early boot to a possible finale player.  Hard to tell.

Karla Godoy - Her confessional about her willingness to do anything I think is a bad sign... I think she'll do something that'll bite her in the butt.

Lindsay Carmine - Early boot or finale loser.  She's the Chrissy of this season.

Mike Gabler - He'll either be like Mike from 42 or Brad from 41.  For his sake, hopefully the former.

Morriah Young - I love her colorful personality and I can't see anyone disliking her.  She should get fairly far.

Noelle Lambert - We haven't had contestant missing a limb since 21, so it'll be interesting to see how she is viewed.  So that makes predicting her finish very difficult.

Nneka Ejere - Can't see her gelling too well.  Even if she gets in a sizable alliance, I think she'll be towards the bottom.

Owen Knight - I think he'll be a fan favorite, like a smarter Woo.  

Ryan Medrano - This season's Jonathan, likely a mid-merge boot.

Sami Layadi - Early boot or finale goat.  Nineteen-year-olds cannot win.


My EARLY final 3 prediction is Jesse, Janine, and Dwight.  


Now for 44:

Brandon Cottom - I remember when he played for the Seahawks (he never made a final 53-man roster, but was in training camp three straight years).  I'll be rooting for him, and I do think he'll do pretty well, based on his application video I watched.

Bruce Perreault - Another Eric Abraham?  He's not quite as old, but he's definitely a longshot to win.

Carolyn Wiger - Her personality will determine everything, if she survives the pre-merge, and how well she'll fit in an alliance.

Carson Garrett - He should do better than Zach in 42, but his age will work against him.

Claire Rafson - Not much to say, I'd have to see her more, but she could do well.

Danny Massa - Reminds me of Voce from 41, appearance-wise.  If he can survive the merge, he's got a shot.

Frannie Marin - She reminds me of Kelyn from Ghost Island.  Hopefully she won't be as emotional.

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt - She looks like she's going to want things her way, and that's not a good thing.  

Helen Li - Erika 2.0?  She'll likely be a social/strategic threat at some point.

Jaime Lynne Ruiz - I followed her on TikTok; she has good content.  I hope she does well, too.  I think she could.

Dr. Joshua Wilder - Hard to say how well he'll do... don't have much of a read on him.

Kane Fritzler - No exact age, from Saskatchewan... I have a feeling he'll have a tough time fitting in.

Lauren Harpe - I get Shan vibes from her, but not as assertive, which is a good thing.  She could do well.

Maddy Pomilla - Either a great player or early boot.  No in between.

Matthew Grinstead-Mayle - He will rub someone the wrong way.  Or multiple people.  I can't see him doing too well.

Matt ??? - No picture, age, or occupation, just his name and location of San Francisco.  I get the feeling we're not supposed to get too attached to him (like Rocksroy).

Sarah Wade - She'll be an early merge boot, following in the steps of Sydney, Tori, and Lydia.

Yamil "Yam Yam" Arocho - He's like Ricard, Naseer, and Omar rolled into one person.  Could he have all of their good qualities?  Hopefully.  But if he does, he'll be a huge threat.


It looks like Survivor cast very well again, and I'm looking forward to these seasons.  I might come back after these seasons have aired and see how my first impressions were.