Who's to Fault for the Mariners

 I decided against doing an MLB predictions post.  It's kind of my way of protesting the crap uniforms this season.  But mostly, I forgot.  I went into the 2024 season with less excitement than ever for the Mariners and baseball in general.  It's the first MLB season of my life that I won't be able to watch the Mariners on cable, after ditching it late last year.  So far, I've resorted to other methods (Ahoy, mateys!) to watch Mariner games, but I've also enjoyed simply listening on the Seattle sports app on occasion.  

Anyway, the Mariners have gotten off to another slow start, starting as bad as 6-10 but they won their last couple and now sit at 8-10.  But still, not the ideal start.  Just like the last couple of years, this team has gotten off to a slow start, and we may be looking back at this slow start just like we did last year as to why this team maybe barely misses the playoffs again.  

Fortunately, the entire AL West has gotten off to a slow start.  The Astros started even slower than the Mariners, and the defending WS champ Rangers lead the division with a .500 record.  The Mariners only sit one game back.   But we all know someone is bound to go on a run in the middle of the season.  We can only hope it'll be the Mariners, but it'll more likely be the Rangers or Astros.

So who is to blame for all of this?  I got bad news.  It's everyone.  Ownership.  Front office.  Coaching.  Players.  Every single department is to blame.  But as most sports fans know, it starts with ownership.  

The Mariners made a few cost-cutting moves this off-season, such as trading Eugenio Suarez and Robbie Ray.  This to me screams that ownership told the Front Office (Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander) that they could only spend up to a certain amount.  That's not the way to successfully run a team.  The ownership group, headed by John Stanton, handcuffed the Front Office and made their jobs tougher.  

However, the Front Office could have made better decisions, despite being handcuffed.  Was it wise to trade all we did for Jorge Polanco?  The Mariners have an influx of pitching but didn't use any as trade chips, either.  But honestly, I can't fault them too much.  They did what they thought was the best move they could do at the time.  Again, given free rein and virtually unlimited spending, this Mariners team would look better this season.  Think about if the Mariners could spend like the Dodgers.  Ah, if only.

I do also think coaching factors in as well.  I think preaching the same message over and over has gotten old with some players.  I wish I could read the minds of JP Crawford, Cal Raleigh, and Julio Rodriguez, and see if they'd rather have a different manager.  I think they would.  Now, Scott Servais isn't a terrible manager, but he does very little to elevate the team.  No one will ever call him one of the game's best.  Pete Carroll was considered one of football's best.  And he was just let go.  So why should the Mariners hold on to Servais if the team struggles more?  I know, different sport and different circumstances, but Servais has been given an incredibly long leash.  And I personally feel (along with many Mariners fans) that the Mariners success that they've had has been in spite of Servais, not because of him.

But all of this does trickle down to the players.  This still is a team that, if they all play to their capabilities, can win a lot of games.  That's the problem, though.  They don't, at least not early in the season.  So, what gives?  

It does all start at the top with ownership, and what gets them panicking and willing to change things is a loss of sales and money.  So that's why I urge Mariners fans to sail the fine seas with me in order to watch games.  Cut ties with cable.  Do not upgrade to be able to watch Mariners games.  Do not subscribe to Fubo TV.  And for the love of God, do not purchase those awful Fanatics jerseys.  And don't go to a game unless it's a special occasion.  

We really should only reward the team when they succeed.  For now, I'm withholding my money from any Mariners-related purchase until they start really winning.  I urge others to do the same.  If enough of us do it, ownership will get the message.  They are the main ones to blame.  

Mariners Off-Season Outlook after Two Payroll-Shedding Trades

Two big trades have been made so far this off-season for the Mariners; two trades that their fans have ridiculed the front office for making.  First was Eugenio Suarez to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a backup catcher and a reliever.  Then Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, and Evan White were sent to the Atlanta Braves for a AAAA-type pitcher (good in minors, bad in majors) and a solid relief pitching prospect.  Both moves have been seen as ways of shedding payroll.  Why would they do this?  Let me explain.

First off, there is no salary cap in MLB like there is in the NFL.  Owners are free to let their GMs spend as much as they want.  They'll just have to foot the bill for any salaries/bonuses they hand out.  It seems in the Mariners case that ownership has restricted the front office of Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander, who definitely would like to spend on a few big bats, but may have needed to shed some payroll first in order to be under a certain budget.  This isn't what fans of a team want to hear.  You should want your owner to allow your GM to spend as much as they need to in order to field the best team possible.  Limiting them only limits their chances of building a successful team.

But let's look at the good.  We haven't lost a ton.  Eugenio Suarez regressed in 2023 after a very solid 2022.  His OPS was down from .791 to .714, and his league-leading strikeout totals rose further.  He did play gold glove-caliber defense, but his offensive numbers still dropped, especially his power.  Jerry Dipoto made the comment that they wanted to be a more contact-focused offense, but my question is this: Why acquire high strikeout guys in the first place?  Jerry chose to trade for Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, known high-strikeout guys.  Perhaps his focus has changed, but that's not altogether encouraging.  

And of the three players we sent to the Braves, none were really huge impact players.  Yes, Kelenic still has a bit of potential, but he had two and a half seasons to realize it with us and just couldn't.  He had one hot stretch in early 2023, but that's it.  He's been largely a bust offensively.  He also strikes out a lot, like Suarez.  Marco was a back-of-the-rotation starter, who was hurt a huge chunk of 2023.  He was the longest-tenured Mariner, but he had reached his ceiling, and his ceiling quite frankly wasn't good enough for our rotation anymore.  And Evan White battled injuries and offensive inconsistency and lost his job to Ty France.  He wasn't going to regain his spot.  

So, we shed some dead weight, honestly.  Suarez and Hernandez (who left in Free Agency) were occasional good middle-of-the-order hitters, but just struck out too much.  That led to too many times where all we needed was a ball put in play and they struck out.  Marco was a lot of money for little return, and Evan White and Kelenic could never fully figure out hitting with us.  

But now let's look at the bad.  There are a ton of holes on this team.  Both corner outfield spots, DH, third base, and second base all need to be addressed.  There's also the fact we could use another starter with Robbie Ray hurt (*cough cough* Blake Snell! *cough*).  We should not be going into 2024 with our middle-of-the-lineup players being France and Raleigh.  This team, as it stands now, would certainly regress in 2024 if no major additions were made.  

So we can only hope and pray as Mariners fans that Jerry and Justin have a plan.  I'm hoping that they were given the luxury of increasing payroll at least a bit.  Perhaps they did the math and realized the guys they wanted to sign or extend after a trade would require more financial room than they already had.  But just because they have their eyes on a few players, doesn't mean they'll get them.  I worry they may have made this room unnecessarily, and they might strike out on acquiring some big names.  This off-season, simply saying "We tried" is not good enough.  

Our dream, of course, is to see big name after big name acquired by the Mariners.  We want to see the social media posts of "Welcome to Seattle, ____!" for a lot of household names.  We do not want to see it for players along the likes of Tommy LaStella, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock.  Of course, not every good player is available in free agency, and some will require a trade to acquire.  I just hope we don't mortgage our future in the hopes of getting back to the post-season.  That was attempted and failed at too many times from 2002-2021.  

The rest of this off-season will be hugely telling for this team and its future.  Jerry and Justin have their work cut out for them.  I think this is the single most important off-season of their Mariners' careers because a failure this off-season will likely eventually cost them their jobs.  I'm sure they're aware of the magnitude of this off-season.  Simply put, an abysmal showing this off-season, and they should not be surprised if ticket and merch sales drop.  At that point, none of us should spend any extra money on this team.  But a good showing will bring this fanbase back around and instill hope for 2024.

Five Biggest Needs for the Mariners for 2024

 The Mariners finished 2023 88-74, missing the playoffs by 1 game and the division by 2 games.  They failed to follow up their magical 2022 season with a successful step forward.  At best, they took a step sideways.  General Manager Justin Hollander has even admitted their moves this past off-season were not adequate enough.  They acquired Teoscar Hernandez and Kolten Wong in trades, and signed AJ Pollock, Tommy LaStella, and Cooper Hummel.  Only one of those players, Hernandez, was on the big league team at season's end.  It's safe to say they need to do better this off-season.  So I have compiled the five biggest needs for this team, and some possible names who could fill that role.  Ranked, in order from least to most important, here are the five biggest needs this Mariners team needs to address this off-season:

5) Rotation depth
Possible candidates: Vince Velasquez, Jordan Montgomery
It'll be hard to say how the back end of the rotation will look come 2024, but I think one thing the Mariners need is depth at the rotation.  Someone who would potentially be okay signing a minor league deal with an option to make the big league club.  I wouldn't be opposed to either Woo or Miller starting 2024 in the minors, especially if they have a rocky spring.  But one thing that hurt the Mariners this past season was the lack of rotation depth.  They need to sign someone to bolster the rotation.  
Result: No one?  I can't think of anyone the Mariners acquired for rotation depth.  They briefly had Anthony DeSclafani before shipping him out for Jorge Polanco.  Grade: INC.

4) Right-handed/switch-hitting outfielder with range, contact
Possible candidates: Harrison Bader, Jurickson Profar
We absolutely should not be starting Dylan Moore or Sam Haggerty in the outfield while on a playoff run again.  They are bench guys.  Jerry and Justin tried to address this with Pollock and LaStella last off-season but to no avail.  I like Bader, and while he struggled in Cincy, I love his effort on defense.  And Profar is a switch-hitter, but hits better historically right-handed, and he would add even more culture to our locker room, being from Curacao.  
Result: We got Mitch back... yay?  I like Mitch, I just hope he can stay healthy.  But he does not have much range or contact.  We also got Luke Raley, but he's a lefty and he too does not have much range.  Grade: D

3) Infielder that can hit
Possible candidates: Rhys Hoskins, Amed Rosario
Our infield just seemed to be filled with black holes this year, not counting JP.  But it seemed someone was always struggling, whether it was Ty, Geno, or whoever was at second base.  Rhys Hoskins was out all of 2023, but if we shipped Ty for a prospect or in a package, I'd love to have Hoskins instead.  And Rosario still can hit around .250 with solid D.  Our infield just needs to improve.  We still haven't found our answer at second base since trading Cano.
Result: We got Jorge Polanco, and if you want to count him, Mitch Garver, but he's counted more for #1 (see below).  We also got the aforementioned Luke Raley.  Our infield should hit better next season.  But we did have to give up a lot to get Polanco.  Grade: B-

2) Veteran closer/bullpen help
Possible candidates: Will Smith, Craig Kimbrel, Ryne Stanek
With the trade of Sewald and the loss of Penn Murfee to the Mets, our bullpen is in need of help.  Brash was overworked, guys like Topa, Campbell, and Thornton were used in higher-leverage situations than they should be, and it showed.  I would love it if we could bring in a veteran guy to add a presence and help mentor some younger guys.  
Result: We got Gregory Santos, he'd be the closest thing to a "veteran" guy that we acquired.  Hopefully he'll fit right in, but he might take a while to do so since he came to us hurt.  Lovely.  Update: We also signed Ryne Stanek late, a guy who I really like, so I'll raise this a tad.  Grade: B+

1) Full-time legit Designated Hitter
Possible candidates: Shohei Ohtani, Jorge Soler, JD Martinez
The last good full-time DH the Mariners had was Nelson Cruz, in 2018.  Before that, it was Edgar.  This team absolutely should not go into the season with guys like LaStella, Hummel, or Haggerty DH'ing.  Obviously, Shohei would be the ideal choice, with him joining the rotation in 2025 due to injury.  Soler would be a nice substitute if his player option falls through.  And I wanted us to acquire JD Martinez last off-season, but of course, he goes to LA.  I doubt he'd come here, but you never know.  We just need SOMEONE at DH we can count on, someone we can put at 3 or 4 in the order and never have to worry about.  
Result: We got Mitch Garver, our one lone significant free agent signing.  Would it be too much to ask for another Nelson Cruz type hitter?  I guess so.  We'll have to see what Mitch does.  I'm more excited for his bat than Polanco's or Raley's, for what it's worth.  Grade: B

Well, that is my list of the top 5 needs the Mariners have this coming off-season.  Let's hope they address most, if not all, of these.  I feel like if they address most of these adequately, a return to the playoffs in 2024 will be in the cards.  I'm going to come back, perhaps around spring training time, and comment on what they did to address these needs, and if it was good enough.  

The Mariners have already reached their peak, at least with this front office and ownership

Hey, this is Brian from Oct. 2023, the regular text is what I wrote towards the end of July.  It was right before the Mariners went on their amazing run in August.  Unfortunately, they followed it up with a stinker of a month in September.  I thought I'd go through and make any additional comments to what I previously said.  I'll save them for after the paragraph (if I have a comment), so I'm not interrupting too often.  

 I haven't done a mid-season review of the Mariners, but I think it's obvious why I haven't.  This year's team, the 2023 team, is painfully mediocre.  They capitalized last year on a lot of players finding success, and most of those same players have not been able to replicate last year's success, for the most part.  I believe last year was their peak, and they will not reach any higher heights with this front office and ownership.  I think this season is more of a regression to the mean.  I think the average amount of wins you will get with these kinds of teams is 80-90.  They're slightly better than average, on average.  This year, they're just average.

The Mariners finished with 88 wins, right where I said.  90 wins is about their ceiling.  They may get lucky and get 92, 93, 94 wins, but a division title is unlikely given the competition from Texas and Houston.

One reason why this team will never eclipse 90 or so wins or win the division or even get to the ALCS is because ownership has restricted spending.  Take a look at the last couple of big contracts they dished out: Robinson Cano and Robbie Ray.  It's safe to say that so far they have not been worth the money spent.  Cano did have a couple great years, but he was unable to help us get to the playoffs.  I think ownership and John Stanton are extremely hesitant to give Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander the green light on doling out a contract worth $100m or more, mainly because the last few haven't quite panned out.  They aren't the cheapest ownership group in sports, but they're cheaper than the average ownership group.  

Another reason why this team will never reach a higher peak is because hitting just cannot be developed in a consistent manner.  How many hitters have come through the Mariners' minor league system and had a successful career with them?  Not many.  Kyle Seager is basically the only one in the last 20 years.  Julio and Cal Raleigh can perhaps join that list, but both have had down years after great first full years in 2022.  For whatever reason, this team and organization can develop pitchers as well as anyone, but they cannot develop hitters.  The most baffling thing to me is how they preach "Control the Zone", yet the Mariners are consistently near the top of the league in strikeouts.  

Julio's massive August really boons his season, and I think it's safe to say he's a rare success story coming out of the minors.  Cal is borderline.  But Julio had so much upside it was hard for him not to pan out.  Also, the Mariners finished 2nd in the AL in strikeouts, behind only Minnesota.  But Minnesota was 4th in the AL in OPS, while the Mariners were barely above league average.  

The one thing I can fault the front office for most is the construction of the roster, namely the position players.  A team built on pitching doesn't need to be complemented by power hitters who strike out a lot.  They need consistent on-base guys that have speed, get around the bases, and play small ball to support the pitching.  It is a lot easier to play small ball and manufacture runs than it is to rely upon the home run ball.  Relying upon the home run ball is just asking for spurts of bad offense, which will ultimately result in losses.  Acquiring guys like Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez were not the smartest moves, because this team already had high strikeout guys in Julio, Kelenic, and Raleigh coming up through the system.  It's like having a football team with a great defense, but an offense that cannot run the ball nor has a short passing game.

One thing I am always quick to point the finger at during losses is coaching, namely manager Scott Servais.  But Servais is not an awful manager.  However, I do not believe he is the type of manager that can elevate a team with average talent.  He's great at motivating young guys, and would probably have a surprising amount of success on a team like Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Colorado.  And he'd probably do ok managing elite talent-level teams, like the Dodgers and Astros (which is true of most managers).  His in-game management and decisions leave a lot to be desired, such as his reliance on having a left/right advantage with the opposition.  Often, he will remove a better hitter for a worse hitter just to get that advantage.  He doesn't seem to have a good game feel, relying on colder bats in clutch moments than hot ones.  I don't think he's the biggest reason for this team's inability to do better than 2022, but he's certainly a contributing factor.  I think Servais, once he leaves the Mariners, will likely be mostly remembered for his decision to put in Robbie Ray against Yordan Alvarez in Game 1 of the ALDS.  If he goes with Swanson or someone else, the Mariners likely win the game, and who knows how that series turns out.    

I will always root for the Mariners, but it is extremely disheartening being as confident as I am that this team will never eclipse 2022 with its current front office, management, and likely, ownership.  In fact, I am willing to bet on it.  If the Mariners win the World Series under Dipoto/Hollander/Servais, I will get a tattoo of the Mariners logo and the words "____ World Series Champions", with the year they won it at the beginning.  I don't like the idea of permanently scarring my body with tattoos, but that just shows how confident I am that this team will not do any better than last season.  I could say I'd get a tattoo if they reach the ALCS or the World Series, but a tattoo saying "2024 ALCS representative" sounds pretty lame to me.  If they get to the ALCS or World Series under this regime, I will spend the combination of wins and team batting average on Mariners merchandise.  So if they win 95 games and have a team batting average of .250, I will buy $345 dollars worth of Mariners merchandise.

I'm sticking to this.  So long as Jerry, Justin, and Scott are with the Mariners, if the Mariners win a World Series, I will get that tattoo.  And I'll stand by what I said about spending money on merch, too.  I am that confident that this team will not do better than a borderline wild card/ALDS loser.  Last year, 2022, was their peak.

I hope I am wrong about all of this and the team surprises me.  But I have watched enough baseball, specifically Mariners baseball, to know that this team is still shackled by its ownership, front office, management, and roster construction.  They will have plenty of great moments and may once again sneak into the playoffs, but I will be beyond shocked if this team plays like one of the league's absolute best for any significant amount of time under this regime.  In my opinion, there are too many things that would need to change about this team and organization in order to consistently become one of MLB's best.  Simply firing Servais wouldn't do it.  Acquiring a contact bat: same thing.  But I can still enjoy their good moments when they come, despite the fact that I will be wishing they were more frequent.

Update, 2024: Well, the Mariners fired Servais, so I'm taking the tattoo offer off the table.  I'll still spend money on the Mariners if they at least make the ALCS under Dipoto.  But I knew Servais wasn't the guy to take us to the World Series.  But perhaps Wilson or someone else is.