2023 NFL Predictions

 Hard to believe, but another NFL season is almost upon us.  I might be doing this a tad early, but I'd rather do it now when I have time.  Anyway, I will go division by division, predicting win/loss records and then the playoffs for each conference.  Normally, I'd go further in detail to my Seahawks, but I don't think I will this time.  I don't know what it is; I'm not particularly excited about this upcoming season.  I feel like we outperformed last year, so I'm expecting some regression this year.  Also, I'm going to make some very surprising picks, because I feel we get surprised by the NFL every year, and there are always a few teams that are almost the complete opposite of what we expect.  Anyway, here are my predicted NFL standings!  Wild cards will have asterisks.

AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills: 11-6
2. Miami Dolphins: 10-7*
3. New York Jets: 9-8
4. New England Patriots: 7-10
The Bills still have the most talented roster in the AFC East, but it's tightening fast.  I wouldn't be surprised if they had to fight for a wild card, but I still put them as division winners because Miami and the Jets are still missing a few pieces.  The Patriots remain competitive under Belichick, but remain mediocre at best.

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens: 10-7
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-9
4. Cleveland Browns: 6-11
Call this the battered and blue division because these teams are going to beat each other up this season.  I don't see any team losing or winning more than 4 in-division games.  And I hate predicting injuries, but I have a bad feeling about Joe Burrow.  His pre-season calf injury worries me and makes me think that might linger or he might suffer a different minor injury that knocks him out for a few games and costs the Bengals the division.  The Steelers and Browns remain competitive, but it's hard to do much better in a very tough AFC.  And yes, I have Mike Tomlin suffer his first losing season as head coach.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts: 9-8
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-9
3. Tennessee Titans: 8-9
4. Houston Texans: 5-12
Here's one of my surprising predictions: The Colts winning the AFC South.  Anthony Richardson has a solid/borderline rookie of the year campaign and leads the Colts to the playoffs.  The Jags return back to Earth a bit and realize they've still got a few holes.  The Titans are just... there.  The Texans still have a ways to go, but surprise some people. Ha!  Try all of us.  What I thought would be the Colts ended up being the Texans.  

AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5
2. Denver Broncos: 11-6*
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 7-10
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 2-15
The Chiefs are good, as expected, and retain the AFC's #1 seed.  It's only with a record of 12-5, though, due to the competitiveness of the AFC.  The Broncos are another of my surprise teams, and they claim the top wild-card spot.  Russell Wilson mostly returns to form thanks to the help of new head coach Sean Payton. The Chargers get outcoached in many games and Brandon Staley likely loses his job at the end of the season.  The Raiders stink with Jimmy G (who likely gets hurt, again) and Josh Jacobs shows his displeasure.  If they can afford it, they fire McDaniels.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6
2. New York Giants: 10-7*
3. Washington Commanders: 9-8
4. Dallas Cowboys: 6-11
Hard to believe that we haven't had a repeat NFC East champion in almost 20 years.  I think that ends here.  The Eagles are too talented.  The Giants will make it close, however.  The Commanders, no longer having the worst owner in professional sports, play inspired football and almost make the postseason.  The Cowboys have a down year, due to not having much depth behind skill players Ceedee Lamb and Tony Pollard.

NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings: 13-4
2. Detroit Lions: 10-7*
3. Chicago Bears: 8-9
4. Green Bay Packers: 6-11
The Vikings with the best record in the NFL?  You heard it here first.  Kirk Cousins is now the best QB in his division (although Goff is close).  The Vikings will put together a 7 or 8 game win streak, and go 6-4 or 5-4 in their other 10 or 9 games.  The Lions don't win the division, but they do snag a wild-card playoff spot.  The Bears are slightly improved, but Fields can only do so much.  The Packers regress heavily after losing Aaron Rodgers, and Jordan Love leads the Packers' front office to quickly try to find the next heir apparent.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints: 10-7
2. Carolina Panthers: 7-10
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-11
4. Atlanta Falcons: 5-12
Derek Carr and the Saints claim the division title, thanks to Carr easily being the best QB in the division.  The Panthers surprise a bit, and Bryce Young does enough to win rookie of the year.  The Bucco's switch to Kyle Trask after Mayfield struggles.  The Falcons are just there.

NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
2. Los Angeles Rams: 11-6*
3. Seattle Seahawks: 8-9
4. Arizona Cardinals: 3-14
The Niners repeat as division champs, likely with multiple QB's starting games for them.  The Rams bounce back and claim the top wild card spot thanks to Matthew Stafford's resurgence.  My Seahawks do okay for most of the year, but they lose too many close games, due to either the defense allowing a late score or Geno Smith not being able to engineer a game-winning drive.  The Cardinals are expected to not be very good, and they won't be.

Here are the playoff seedings: 
AFC
1. Kansas City (12-5)
2. Buffalo (11-6)
3. Baltimore (10-7)
4. Indianapolis (9-8)
5. Denver (11-6)
6. Cincinnati (10-7)
7. Miami (10-7)

NFC
1. Minnesota (13-4)
2. San Francisco (12-5)
3. Philadelphia (11-6)
4. New Orleans (10-7)
5. Los Angeles Rams (11-6)
6. New York Giants (10-7)
7. Detroit (10-7)

Here's how I think the playoffs would go:
AFC Wild Card
(7) Dolphins at (2) Bills: Dolphins win
In a rematch of last year's wild card, the Dolphins get the upper hand this time.
(6) Bengals at (3) Ravens: Bengals win
Another rematch, this time with the Ravens as the higher seed, but it still doesn't matter.
(5) Broncos at (4) Colts: Broncos win
The Broncos' leadership (Payton/Wilson) has plenty of playoff experience, and it proves valuable.
NFC Wild Card
(7) Lions at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
I'd be rooting for the Lions like crazy, but it would just be too tough for them, just like it was for my Seahawks last season.
(6) Giants at (3) Eagles: Eagles win
Divisional showdown!  Eagles come out on top easily.
(5) Rams at (4) Saints: Rams win
The Rams prove too much for Carr and the Saints.

AFC Divisional Round:
(7) Dolphins at (1) Chiefs: Chiefs win
Tyreke Hill returns to Kansas City!  But he loses, due to the KC pressure being too much for Tua.
(6) Bengals at (5) Broncos: Bengals win
The Bengals have a more well-rounded roster in terms of talent and experience, which proves to be the difference.

NFC Divisional Round:
(5) Rams at (1) Vikings: Vikings win
The home field advantage proves too much for the Rams, who also cannot figure out a way to shutdown Justin Jefferson.
(3) Eagles at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
In a rematch of last year's NFC Championship game, the 49ers get the upper hand due to home field advantage, but also having a healthy quarterback this time.

Conference Championships:
(6) Bengals at (1) Chiefs: Bengals win
For the third year in a row, this is the AFC Championship game matchup.  And it goes back to Cincy.  The Bengals have an up and down season, but they catch fire at the end of the season, which is all that matters.
(2) 49ers at (1) Vikings: Vikings win
Whoever is under center for the 49ers is going to struggle under the lights and noise, and the Vikings win a close, hard-fought game.  

Super Bowl LVIII: Vikings vs. Bengals: Bengals win
The Bengals enter as very slight underdogs but emerge victorious.  In a matchup of two teams, each who has yet to win a Super Bowl, the Bengals come out on top.  It's an electrifying Super Bowl, filled with plenty of lead changes.  Joe Burrow wins Super Bowl MVP.  

There you have it.  The Cincinnati Bengals are my Super Bowl pick. Yikes!  Couldn't have done worse, lol.  However, my conference championship losers ended up being the Super Bowl, so there's that. Despite me thinking they'll have a down regular season, I think they'll do well late and in the playoffs.  They were so close last year to returning to the Super Bowl, and this year I think they do and win it.  Before I go, here are the coaches who I think get fired or leave by season's end: 

Bill Belichick, Patriots (retires) Didn't retire, but he's done anyway
Mike Vrabel, Titans Yep
Brandon Staley, Chargers Yep
Josh McDaniels, Raiders Yep
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers Nope
Other possibilities: Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals), Arthur Smith (Falcons) Yep, Matt LaFleur (Packers), Pete Carroll (Seahawks, retire?) Yep, Ron Rivera, Commanders (retire?) Yep

The firing I did not consider: Frank Reich (first year!)

My 2023 MLB Predictions

 It's about that time of year!  The MLB season officially gets underway later this month, so I got to get my predictions out.  

Like last year, I'm going to predict the order of each division (no win or loss totals), the wild card teams, and I'll run through the playoffs.  Last year, I correctly picked the Mariners to end their playoff drought, and I even got their playoff seeding right (#5)!  I'll also pick the team leaders for statistical categories and All-Stars.  Let's hope I do better in that department this year.  Just a refresher: I had Frazier leading in average, JP leading in stolen bases, Ray leading in ERA, and Winker, Haniger, and Ray as All-Stars.  Oops!  Without further ado, the 2023 MLB predicted standings:

NL EAST
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies*
3. New York Mets*
4. Miami Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
Comment: In the highly competitive NL East (at least with the first three teams), I have the Braves winning the division.  They lost Dansby Swanson but still have a great core with Riley, Acuna, and Harris.  The Phillies will be a strong wild-card team after acquiring Trea Turner.  The Mets did get Verlander, but he shows his age, and the Mets take a small step back.  

NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Comment: This is likely the worst division in baseball.  The Brewers and Cardinals will fight for the division, but the Cards have too much firepower with Goldschmidt and Arenado.  The retirements of Pujols and Yadi will open up spots for younger players to emerge.  The Cubs will be slightly better, and could possibly challenge for a wild card spot. 

NL WEST
1. San Diego Padres
2. Los Angeles Dodgers*
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Comment: My biggest surprise pick (standing-wise) is the Padres winning the NL West over the Dodgers.  The Dodgers will hold the division for most of the season, but a combination of a late Padres run and a Dodgers late collapse results in the Padres winning the division.  The Dodgers will still get a wild card.  The Giants will be decent again, but like the Cubs may still be a year away.

AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays*
3. Baltimore Orioles*
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Boston Red Sox
Comment: The Yankees win the division... again.  The Blue Jays again claim the top wild-card seed.  The Orioles leapfrog the Rays and claim the final wild-card spot.  The Orioles have a young core that will only get better.  The Red Sox lost Bogearts and well... they need to rebuild.

AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Guardians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Comment: The Guardians have a solid young core and aren't going anywhere.  The Twins should compete and will challenge for a wild card spot, but it won't be enough.  The White Sox will feel the loss of Jose Abreu.  

AL WEST
1. Houston Astros
2. Texas Rangers*
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: I hate to say it, but the Mariners are missing the playoffs.  I hope I'm wrong.  I think the Rangers signing DeGrom and getting Bruce Bochy as manager were huge.  I don't think the Mariners did enough this offseason, and it will come back to bite them.  Of course, the Astros aren't going anywhere, unfortunately.

So, the 2023 playoffs!  Perhaps a few surprise teams?  No Mariners... let's hope if they miss the playoffs (like I'm predicting) that it doesn't start a new drought for the team.

NL WILD CARD
(6) Mets at (3) Cardinals: Cardinals win
(5) Phillies at (4) Dodgers: Phillies win

AL WILD CARD 
(6) Orioles at (3) Guardians: Guardians win
(5) Rangers at (4) Blue Jays: Blue Jays win

NL DIVISIONAL ROUND
(5) Phillies at (1) Braves: Braves win
(3) Cardinals at (2) Padres: Padres win

AL DIVISIONAL ROUND
(4) Blue Jays at (1) Astros: Astros win
(3) Guardians at (2) Yankees: Guardians win

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Padres vs. Braves: Braves win
Guardians vs. Astros: Guardians win

WORLD SERIES
Guardians vs. Braves: Braves win in 7

Yep, a rematch of the 1995 World Series, 28 years later.  The Braves win again.  Now, who I think will lead certain categories for the M's:

Average: JP Crawford (resurgent season)
Home Runs: Julio Rodriguez
RBI: Ty France
Stolen Bases: Julio Rodriguez
Wins: Luis Castillo
Strikeouts: Robbie Ray
ERA: George Kirby
Saves: Paul Sewald
All-Stars: Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby

I'm going to do a further look at the M's, what I expect from each player, and perhaps go in depth as to why I think they'll miss the playoffs (barely).  Look for that soon!

So this is Brian from late 2023, the MLB season is now in the playoffs and I wanted to point out the biggest things I got right and the biggest things I got wrong:

Biggest things I got right:
- Mariners missing the playoffs.  I wish I wasn't right on this...!  Sigh.
- The Texas Rangers finishing 2nd to the Astros and snagging a wild card, along with two other AL East teams.  
- The Baltimore Orioles making the playoffs--although I did not see them winning the East!
- The Dodgers losing their first playoff series--again.  Although, I had them losing the wild card instead of losing in the divisional round.

Biggest things I got wrong: 
- Guardians winning their division and the AL Pennant--Whoops!
- Cardinals winning the NL Central--but I wasn't the only one to get this wrong
- The Padres winning the NL West over the Dodgers.  Hey, they lost a lot of close games, if you switch those, you basically get what I predicted.
- The Yankees winning the AL East while the Rays finish 4th.  Basically switch those two. 

Twenty-One Years in the Making

 The 2022 Mariners, barring the most miraculous finish by Baltimore and the most epic of collapses by them, will make the playoffs for the first time in twenty-one years.  The playoff drought for this team will not see its 21st birthday if you count from the last playoff game in Mariner's history, which was October 22, 2001.  Just one more win by the Mariners and one more loss from the Baltimore Orioles will make it so it is impossible for Baltimore (or any team behind them, for that matter) can supplant the Mariners from a Wild Card playoff spot.

I have waited twenty-one long and painful years for this.  As a Mariner fan, I have endured ineptitude, horrible trades and free agent acquisitions and have always been disappointed by September at the latest.  It's going to be weird.  The Mariners in the playoffs seems so abnormal in today's world, like seeing someone still using an iPod shuffle or a Microsoft Zune.  But the Mariners making the playoffs has to become a new fad or trend, and one that will hopefully stick around longer than the Zune did.

It's hard to express my emotions right now.  To be honest, part of me is half-expecting to wake up and realize this was a dream and see the 2022 Mariners with a losing record.  So it might take a while for it to sink in with me.  

What would also help is having a home playoff game.  Playoff baseball in Seattle is like no other.  Unfortunately, there hasn't been enough of it in MLB history.  But playoff baseball in Seattle is, for lack of a better term, electric.  The Kingdome rocked in the 1990s with pennant fever.  T-Mobile park has shown signs of what the players have dubbed "The electric factory."  But imagine if the Mariners did damage and won a playoff series at home.  

Unfortunately, with the way the playoffs are currently designed, the Mariners would have to get the top wild card spot in order to guarantee themselves home playoff games.  Otherwise, they'd have to win their wild card series on the road, likely against Cleveland or Toronto.  Neither is an easy task.  So while the Mariners may end their playoff drought, they still might not get to host a playoff game, and that streak could continue.  

But I'm sure many Mariners fans, myself included, would take this situation in a heartbeat.  After twenty-one years, you'll just take any modicum of success your team can achieve.  To have the Mariners in a playoff series, even if it's entirely on the road, is something I've dreamed about for twenty-one years.  When I watch them play in the playoffs, it's going to feel so surreal, on the verge of feeling unreal, almost.  

I'm so stoked these guys are on the verge of ending this drought, and I wish them the absolute best for the rest of the season and in the playoffs.  Regardless of the finish (provided we clinch the playoffs), this 2022 season will always be looked back at fondly.  The playoff drought now is longer than the one this team endured to start its existence.  And you know what?  It's about damn time we made the playoffs.  Go Mariners.

What Constitutes a Successful Season at this Point for the 2022 Mariners

 The 2022 Seattle Mariners season has been quite the roller coaster.  From being 10 games under .500 to going on a 14-game winning streak, this team has really experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.  The Mariners currently sit at 82-67, guaranteed their first consecutive back-to-back winning seasons since 2002 and 2003.  But the team's sights are set on the postseason, to make their first trip there in 21 years.  

The Mariners are currently nearing the end of a three-city road trip, a road trip that has gone about as bad as it could for a contending team.  They salvaged the final games in each series so far from the Angels and A's, two teams that have no shot at the postseason.  They also seem to have lost Julio Rodriguez, their star player, for at least a few games.  Even if the Mariners sweep the Royals, they cannot have a winning road trip.

I'm left wondering what constitutes a successful season at this point.  The worst realistic scenario would be this hitting slump continues, injuries mount, and the Mariners limp into the #6 wild card spot and promptly lose two games in Cleveland.  That to me would not constitute a successful season given where the Mariners once stood.  

I'd say the bare minimum for the Mariners is they need to win a playoff game.  I could argue the Mariners need to host a playoff game, which would mean either claiming the top wild card spot or winning their wild card series.  I'll say this: If the Mariners can host a playoff game, it will definitely be a successful season, regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes.  If they cannot, it'll definitely be left up to the determination of their fans.

This recent stretch of losing and poor hitting is certainly concerning.  But if the Mariners can enter the postseason on a hot streak, good things can happen.  They'll need to use their final homestand to get right.  They'll need to use it to figure out which hitters will be on the postseason roster and to break some hitters out of slumps.  

Of course, the Mariners have not clinched anything yet.  The postseason is not guaranteed.  But a collapse of that proportion would be too much for most Mariners fans, myself included, to handle.  We have put up with too much heartbreak in the last two decades, and a collapse of that nature would put me over the edge as a Mariners fan.  

Once the season is over, I will make another post recapping and say if it was a successful season or not.  It'll be hard to say it's not a successful season if the Mariners make the playoffs, ending a 21-year postseason drought.  But if the Mariners limp in, promptly lose both games and fail to even host a playoff game, it'll be equally hard to call it a successful season.

2022 NFL and Seahawk Predictions

 The 2022 NFL season is almost here, and with that comes my annual NFL predictions.  Now, with the trade of Russell Wilson, expectations are much lower for the Seahawks.  Also, my excitement for watching the NFL this season is tempered, since my team is no longer a contender.  However, that still will not stop me from predicting records, division winners, playoff game winners, and a Super Bowl Champion.  

I will also predict each game of the Seahawks regular season after that.  An asterisk denotes a wild card team.  Here we go!

AFC EAST
1. Buffalo Bills: 13-4
2. Miami Dolphins: 10-7*
3. New England Patriots: 8-9
4. New York Jets: 6-11

Some people see the Jets making strides, but with all the news surrounding Zach Wilson, I don't.  I think the Dolphins have a fairly dynamic offense with Tyreek Hill, but not as much as they'd hope.  The Patriots are mediocre.  The Bills win the division fairly easily.

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens: 11-6
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
4. Cleveland Browns: 6-11

The Ravens have a bounceback year, as they always do after a disappointing one.  The Bengals regress a bit, I think part of their success last year was catching teams off guard.  The Steelers are competitive but without a true franchise QB this is the best they can be.  The Browns have way too much drama and an inexperienced coach like Stefanski won't be able to handle it too well.  They also won't have the services of Watson all season.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts: 10-7
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-9
3. Tennessee Titans: 7-10
4. Houston Texans: 5-12

A bit of a surprise here, eh?  Keep in mind, we see surprising results at the end of the year we didn't really expect in August.  The Colts should be good enough to win a bad division with veteran Matt Ryan.  The Jaguars take a huge step forward and T-Law looks much better.  The Titans struggle as Henry shows age and Tannehill is too mistake-prone.  The Texans still have a ways to go, but upset some teams.

AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6*
3. Denver Broncos: 9-8
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9

To sum up, they're going to beat each other up.  I doubt any team will have a division record better than 4-2.  The Chiefs win the tiebreaker over the Chargers.  Meanwhile, the Broncos narrowly miss the playoffs as Russ takes too long to acclimate to a new team.  The Raiders are extremely competitive but lose too many close games.

NFC EAST
1. Washington Commanders: 9-8
2. Dallas Cowboys: 8-9
3. New York Giants: 7-10
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 5-12

This division is a total crapshoot.  They haven't had a repeat division winner since the Eagles did it 2003-2004.  I think that trend continues.  The Cowboys lost too much, while Carson Wentz has a semi-resurgence in DC.  The Giants and Danny Dimes make strides but not enough.  The Eagles fall apart (hey, at least one team that isn't expected to does every season).

NFC NORTH
1. Minnesota Vikings: 12-5
2. Green Bay Packers: 10-7*
3. Detroit Lions: 9-8
4. Chicago Bears: 4-13

The Vikings win the division with new coach Kevin O'Connell helping spur Kirk Cousins to an amazing season.  The Packers regress without Davante Adams, and Aaron Rodgers either gets hurt or seems to lose interest.  The Lions have a resurgent season, but it's not enough.  The Bears are just bad and Fields looks lost.

NFC SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11-6
2. Carolina Panthers: 9-8*
3. New Orleans Saints: 7-10
4. Atlanta Falcons: 5-12

The Bucs get 5 or 6 of their wins in-division (meaning they are 5-6 or 6-5 outside the division), showing they can beat up their division still but not other teams too much.  The Panthers have a surprisingly good season with Baker Mayfield proving to be a capable starter.  The Saints are a shell of themselves without Brees and Payton, but still have some talent.  The Falcons, meanwhile, can surprise some teams but not a ton.

NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams: 13-4
2. San Francisco 49ers: 9-8*
3. Arizona Cardinals: 7-10
4. Seattle Seahawks: 7-10

The Rams run away with the division, as is almost expected.  The 49ers are decent with Lance but he isn't able to clutch up some wins for them late.  The Cardinals get off to a somewhat decent start (5-2 or so) but then lost 8 of their last 10.  The Seahawks are more competitive than people give them credit for and they win 7 games.

Before we get to the playoffs, here are the coaches I expect to be fired based on these standings:
- Nick Siriani, Eagles
- Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
- Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals
- Kevin Stefanski, Browns

Generally there's 6 or 7 firings, but those are the only coaches I see getting fired based on those standings.  There may be some coaches (Belichick, Reid, Carroll) that may retire.  Also, I can see Matt Rhule getting fired if the Panthers do any worse than what I predicted.  Even if the Titans struggle like I predict, it's hard to see a well-respected guy like Mike Vrabel getting fired.  Also, there are a few coaches that I don't see doing particularly well (Smith-Falcons, Eburflus-Bears, Saleh-Jets, Smith-Texans, Allen-Saints), but I think their teams would give them another year. 

All right, now time for the playoffs!  Here are the seedings as predicted by yours truly: 

AFC
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Miami Dolphins

NFC
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Washington Commanders
5. Green Bay Packers
6. San Francisco 49ers
7. Carolina Panthers

Now for the playoff matchups: 

Wild Card Round
AFC
(7) Dolphins at (2) Ravens: Ravens win
(6) Bengals at (3) Chiefs: Chiefs win
(5) Chargers at (4) Colts: Chargers win

NFC
(7) Panthers at (2) Vikings: Vikings win
(6) 49ers at (3) Buccaneers: 49ers win
(5) Packers at (4) Commanders: Commanders win

Divisional Round
AFC
(5) Chargers at (1) Bills: Bills win
(3) Chiefs at (2) Ravens: Ravens win

NFC
(6) 49ers at (1) Rams: Rams win
(4) Commanders at (2) Vikings: Vikings win

Conference Championships
AFC: Ravens at Bills: Ravens win
NFC: Vikings at Rams: Rams win

Super Bowl LVII: Ravens over Rams

I know, bold, right?  The Ravens seem to have a Super Bowl-caliber season once every 10-12 seasons, and it's getting to the point.  Rams are unable to repeat, just like the Seahawks nine seasons prior.

All right, now time for some award winners: 
MVP: Kirk Cousins, Vikings
OPOY: Justin Jefferson, Vikings
DPOY: TJ Watt, Steelers
OROY: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
DROY: Aidan Hutchinson, Lions
Coach of the Year: Kevin O'Connell, Vikings
Comeback player: Derwin James, Chargers

Now, for my Seahawks.  I will go game by game, predicting wins and losses.  Not going to do scores, way too unpredictable there.

vs. Broncos: L (0-1)
I think we hang with them tough and give Russ fits, but either are unable to come up with a late clutch score or they do.  

@ 49ers: W (1-1)
We always seem to do well against the Niners and I think K9 (Kenneth Walker III) pops off here.

vs. Falcons: W (2-1)
A low-scoring unexciting game results in a narrow win for the Hawks, something like 20-16.  

@ Lions: L (2-2)
I expect the Lions to be tough this season, but not unbeatable.  But too tough for the Hawks.

@ Saints: W (3-2)
Seahawks starting 2-1 on the road?  Yep.  Put that in the win column.  

vs. Cardinals: L (3-3)
Unfortunately, this is early-season Cardinals, so they'll be pretty tough.  

@ Chargers: L (3-4)
I don't see a way we win this at all.  I just hope our defense doesn't get too embarrassed.

vs. Giants: W (4-4)
Danny Dimes struggles against the 12s and the Seahawks win another close, low-scoring game.

@ Cardinals: W (5-4)
I'd like to think that this game starts the downfall for Kliff, Kyler, and the Cards.  

@ Buccaneers in Munich: L (5-5)
Boy this'll be a tough one.  The Bucs don't play many easy games outside of their division, so they will need to take this one.

vs. Raiders: L (5-6)
In what may be a close game, the Seahawks just struggle to defend against Carr, Adams, Waller, and Renfrow.  

@ Rams: L (5-7) 
The Seahawks head to LA hoping to not be on a 3-game skid, but it's just too tall of a task to overcome.  

vs. Panthers: L (5-8)
Rumors swirl about Pete Carroll's job security, but given the team's low expectations he is not fired.

vs. 49ers: W (6-8)
The Hawks beat the 49ers again in what may be a game that saves Pete Carroll's job.  Expect this to be a sloppy back-and-forth game.

@ Chiefs: L (6-9)
The Seahawks finish with a record of 0-4 against the AFC West (unsurprisingly).  But hey, at least they're 6-9.  Nice.

vs. Jets: W (7-9)
The Hawks know Robert Saleh and are able to exploit his tactics.  

vs. Rams: L (7-10)
It depends on if the Rams will actually need to win this game for playoff positioning, but I'll say they do since I have the Vikings on their heels.  The Hawks can't wrap up the season with a W.

There you have it, 7-10.  Do I feel I'm being a bit optimistic?  Sure.  But Pete Carroll teams are always competitive, enough to get 6 or 7 wins.  I think the Hawks surprise some teams and actually do fairly well against their own division (I have them at 3-3 in-division).  

It's interesting to enter a season with low expectations, but hey, it'll be hard to be disappointed, then!  Go Hawks!

Thoughts on Castillo Trade, M's Future

Just a few days ago, I warned the Mariners and Jerry Dipoto not to give up too much for a player like Juan Soto.  Unfortunately, they gave up a lot, and not even for Juan Soto.  They sent four prospects (3 of the top 5 in the Mariners' system) to the Cincinnati Reds for Luis Castillo, an All-Star pitcher.  He's a borderline top 10 starter in the game and still should have plenty of productive years left.  He is only signed through 2023, so the Mariners may only get a season and a half out of him.  Was this an overpay?  It will all depend on how things shake out.

I understand that you have to give up a lot to get star players.  But man, losing 3 of your top 5 prospects does hurt.  The winner of this trade will be determined by how much Castillo can help the Mariners toward a playoff birth and run and how well those prospects do with the Reds.  

I get it.  The Mariners are desperate for a playoff berth.  I am desperate for that, too.  But if the Mariners make the playoffs once or twice, each followed by early playoff exits, and another drought ensues, was it worth it?  I'd say it hardly was.  However, Castillo will solidify a very good rotation even further for at least the next year and a half, and as the saying goes, you can never have too much good pitching.

The good thing is that 99.9% of prospects are not a sure thing.  We weren't even sure Julio Rodriguez was a sure thing going into this season.  Jarred Kelenic was a highly rated prospect and has still not panned out, and he might never.  At this point, I wish Jerry Dipoto had traded him earlier while his value was still high.  That's what he did with our prospects he sent for Castillo.  He sent them away while their value was still high.  

Obviously, if you trade a prospect that becomes a perennial All-Star or Hall of Famer and don't get the value in return, it becomes an awful trade and one of the worst in franchise history.  But that's the risk you take with trades in MLB.  Every team in the majors has made a huge trade that they regret.  

As Mariner fans, we can only hope Castillo leads us to the playoffs, and we go on a playoff run, and the prospects we sent away only have marginally successful careers at best.  If we aren't able to end the playoff drought and the prospects have great careers with the Reds helping them get to the playoffs, that's going to be too much for us Mariner fans to handle.  We've seen this happen too many times before.  

I hope to look back on this trade and not feel remorse like I do so many other trades in Mariner history.  I often wonder what Mariners' history would've been like if we had held on to the likes of Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe, David Ortiz, and Adam Jones.  

Before I fail to mention, the first full game played after the announcement of this trade, Julio Rodriguez went down with a hand injury and went on the 10-day IL the day after.  The need for hitting became even more apparent.  But Jerry Dipoto decided to go with pitching.  I'm not wholely against that idea because pitching often wins in the playoffs, but if the bats go quiet due to a lack of depth and injuries, that's going to really hurt the M's chances of even making the playoffs.  

We will know in 2 months whether this trade is starting to be worth it or it's looking like another dud trade to add to the list in Mariners history.  Let's hope for the former.

2021 NFL Predictions! (With basements and ceilings)

The 2021 NFL season is almost upon us, and I thought I'd make my NFL Predictions differently this year.  I usually go division by division, predicting the W-L record of each team.  Instead, I'll go team by team, giving them a ceiling (best they could do) and a basement (worst they could do).  To figure out about my W-L prediction for them, generally, go somewhere in the middle.  I'll try not to have too large a gap between the ceiling and the basement, setting my max at five games.  And in case anyone has forgotten, this is the first season with seventeen games; therefore, we will have some odd W-L records.  Finally, some teams may finish lower than their basement if they lose their starting quarterback (or have multiple significant injuries) for a substantial amount of time; I went with each starting quarterback staying relatively healthy.

Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 6-11
Comment: In a tough division, 11 wins may seem like a stretch, but if one or two teams in the NFC West struggle, then the Cardinals could take advantage of that opportunity.  Alternatively, they could struggle to beat division foes if everyone else is playing decent football.

Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: I figure the Falcons' offense should be enough to carry them to a few wins.  The loss of Julio Jones is offset by drafting Kyle Pitts.  Their defense will be the difference between a 2nd place finish and possibly last place.  I may be more optimistic than most people with the Falcons, but I like the pairing of Arthur Smith and Matt Ryan.  If he can revive Ryan Tannehill's career, think of what he could do with the better arm of Matt Ryan.

Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 9-8
Comment: The Ravens are almost guaranteed a winning record with their talent and dynamic QB, Lamar Jackson, and balanced roster.  How high they fly will be determined by how well they do against the Browns and Steelers.  They got a good shot at winning their division, but they will have to hold off the talented Browns and always competitive Steelers.

Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 14-3
Basement: 10-7
Comment: The Bills are now one of the top-notch teams in the AFC.  They will be able to beat up on the Jets and take AT LEAST one game from each of the Patriots and the Dolphins.  However, I see them tripping up throughout the season a few times.  Their team is still a bit young, but they also remind me of that Chiefs team that lost the AFC Championship Game, but then the following season won the Super Bowl.

Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 9-8
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Panthers will be a scrappy bunch and certainly have some talent, but not enough to challenge Tampa Bay for the division (yet).  Their success will largely depend on how well Sam Darnold adjusts to playing in Carolina and if Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy.  Can Matt Rhule and Sam Darnold become a great coach/QB duo? Time will tell.

Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: If the Bears finish around their basement or lower, Matt Nagy and Ryan Grigson will have to find new jobs.  But I do not think they will.  A switch to Justin Fields could ignite the offense and team, similar to what we saw in San Francisco when they transitioned to Kaepernick in 2011.  They could win the NFC North, or they could plummet and wonder if they will ever find a franchise quarterback.

Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Even if Joe Burrow stays healthy all year, there's too much competition in their division AND conference.  And I could still see them struggling quite a bit, but I think they have enough talent to win a small handful of games, even if they lose Burrow again.  Let's hope Burrow can stay healthy all year to prove what he is capable of accomplishing.

Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Browns are a fickle bunch.  They could continue their rise, fall flat on their face (because let's face it, they're the Browns), or they could be somewhere in-between.  I think they will be somewhere in-between and grab a wild card spot (again).  

Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: These records are if Dak stays relatively healthy all season.  They have the most talent easily in the NFC East, and in my opinion, should win it this year.  If he struggles to stay healthy or the Cowboys struggle to handle their division, they may lose it again.

Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 8-9
Basement: 3-14
Comment: For the Broncos to get close to eight wins, they would need Teddy Two-Gloves to play his best football since Minnesota and make good connections with Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the receivers.  Or he could get hurt, Drew Lock struggles with a lack of confidence, and the Broncos get a top 5 pick.

Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 2-15
Comment: For the Lions to approach their ceiling, they will need another NFC North team to collapse.  Each of those three expects to sweep Detroit.  But it could happen.  Or, new coach Dan Campbell's message could get old fast, and the Lions become the worst team in the NFC.  

Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Aaron Rodgers drama will either affect them a little or a lot.  If it's a little, they will remain division champs and again get a top seed.  If it's a lot, they may lose the division title or maybe a playoff spot altogether.  They have a very talented roster, but Aaron certainly carries them at times.  The Packers currently have a situation where if one bad thing happens, it could lead to a chain reaction of bad things happening, ultimately derailing their entire season.

Houston Texans
Ceiling: 4-13
Basement: 0-17
Comment: It is not very often we see a team come into the season with such low expectations.  The Texans were terrible last year, and somehow they got even worse.  Their coaching hire of David Culley was incredibly uninspired, and who knows if and when Deshaun Watson will play.  When your basement is literally zero wins, you know you're in trouble.

Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Colts' two injuries to two of their most important players makes them hard to predict.  If the injuries don't last too long, they should remain competitive, but I see a ceiling of about 12 wins for them.  On the other hand, they could succumb to the injuries, but there is no way they lose more than ten games if that.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Trevor Lawrence should immediately give them a boost.  Also, the Texans being as awful as they are, should give the Jags one, probably two easy wins.  They do play a last-place schedule, which helps.  However, they lost running back Travis Etienne for the year, and their offensive line does not look good, so I do not expect much from them.  Even if Trevor Lawrence is a football god, there's no way they get to .500 or better.

Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 15-2
Basement: 10-7
Comment: The Chiefs are a borderline dynasty.  If they win the AFC conference championship again, I would argue they are a dynasty.  Even if Mahomes gets a little banged up as he did two years ago, they should still reach double-digit wins.  They are just too talented and too well-coached not to get there.

Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Raiders have some talented players, but I would bet on them finishing with seven wins or fewer if I was betting on them.  They rely a bit too much on Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr, and if either misses significant time, they are SOL.  Jon Gruden doesn't seem to be able to turn this team around.  They may compete or fall flat on their face.  

Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: It is tough to see the Chargers doing worse than seven wins if Herbert stays healthy after they rebuilt their offensive line.  Herbert set rookie records last year with one of the worst offensive lines in football.  New coach Brandon Staley shouldn't face too much challenge, and I bet the Chargers can reach second place.

Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Rams made a significant change at the quarterback position, acquiring former Lions signal-caller Matthew Stafford.  I feel there will be a learning curve, and Stafford will be marginally better than Goff if it all.  They should contend for a wild card spot at the very least, but a division title does not seem as easy as everyone else is predicting.

Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Fins gave Tua some more weapons and help, and he should at least be halfway decent.  They could be as good as a top wild card seed or missing out on the playoffs because the offense cannot come together.  The Bills seem to remain the superior team for the time being.

Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 6-11
Comment: I feel for Mike Zimmer.  His QB refuses to vaccinate.  The Vikings never show enough to escape the middle of the NFC North.  They remind me of the Mariners of the mid-2010s: never awful, some exciting players, but never good enough to do anything of note.  They may surprise and win ten games, or they may suck and lose eleven.  I think it will be somewhere in-between.

New England Patriots
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: We cannot forget that New England is a well-coached, well-run team.  They have an excellent offensive line, and Mac Jones in his rookie season should have a decent amount of success.  They may compete with or even surpass Miami for second place in the division.

New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Saints still have Sean Payton as their head coach, even if Drew Brees retired.  They won't be awful, but they sure will not feel like the same Saints of old.  We'll have to see how they do with Jameis Winston, but I'm guessing he might struggle against some of the more formidable NFC teams.

New York Giants
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: Even if everything goes right, I do not see the Giants taking the league by storm.  The problem is, I do not see everything going right.  The Giants seem like a fragile team that cannot handle even one bad thing going wrong, such as losing Saquon Barkley to injury.  I do like Joe Judge, but a midwest-type team may better suit him.

New York Jets
Ceiling: 6-11
Basement: 2-15
Comment: The Jets, like the Jaguars, are undergoing a slow rebuild.  They could not even lose enough to get the number one overall pick last season.  However, with Zach Wilson, they should be at least a tad better.  If they win close to six games, they should consider it an improvement and a start.

Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 8-9
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Many are predicting the Eagles to be awful, citing their uninspired coaching hire and lack of quality moves in the offseason.  I initially thought they'd be halfway decent, but they will undoubtedly have to undergo a rebuild.  If Jalen Hurts can carry them a la Deshaun Watson with the Texans, they might get 6, 7, or maybe even 8 wins.  But it's more likely they will hit double-digit losses and close to a top-five pick in next year's draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Steelers have somehow never had a losing season in the 14 seasons under Mike Tomlin.  Bill Cowher cannot say the same; he had three losing seasons.  But all good things must come to an end, right?  However, I feel like whenever I or anyone else counts the Steelers out, they have a surprisingly good season.  Therefore, I'm not exactly sure what to expect.  

San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: Last year was a disaster for the 49ers following their Super Bowl loss.  They hope to stay healthier this year.  With an impending QB change looming, how will that affect the team?  I know a lot of 49er players love Jimmy Garoppolo (George Kittle being one).  The 49ers are the one team that could be a Super Bowl contender if everything comes together, or they could have a repeat of last season.  They will be slightly better than last season, but they will have some speed bumps due to not having consistency at QB.

Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 9-8
Comment: The Hawks have never had a losing record in the Russell Wilson era, and it's tough to see that ending this season.  The overall consistency between the offense and the defense will make or break this season for the Hawks.  Can they be at their best at the same time?  If they can, the Hawks should win the division and get a top seed.  If not, they may be battling the Rams or 49ers for the division and may even lose it.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 15-2
Basement: 11-6
Comment: The defending Super Bowl champs return all 22 starters, unheard of in today's NFL.  They should be able to avoid the adjustment period they underwent in the first half of last season.  However, opposing teams will circle them on their schedules, resulting in getting the best from their opposition every week.  They won't go undefeated, but I'd be shocked if they didn't have the division wrapped up by mid-December.  

Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Titans are fortunate to play in a reasonably easy division.  Their success will largely be determined by how well they beat up their division foes.  They'll be in decent shape if they can sweep Houston and Jacksonville and take at least one from Indy.  I'm not counting on huge things from Tennessee this season, even with the addition of Julio Jones.  They will likely be a borderline playoff team.

Washington Football Team
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: WFT somehow won the division last year despite having very inconsistent quarterback play.  They were lucky to arguably have the best defensive line in the entire NFL last season.  And it should remain at least one of the best.  They could challenge for the division crown, but they will need a quarterback, Fitzpatrick or Heinicke, to step up and do enough necessary to win.

Now let's predict the playoffs:
AFC Seedings
1) Kansas City
2) Buffalo
3) Baltimore
4) Indianapolis
5) Tennessee
6) Cleveland
7) New England

NFC Seedings
1) Tampa Bay
2) Seattle
3) Green Bay
4) Dallas
5) Los Angeles Rams
6) San Francisco
7) Chicago

AFC Wild Card Round
(7) New England at (2) Buffalo: Buffalo wins
(6) Cleveland at (3) Baltimore: Cleveland wins
(5) Tennessee at (4) Indianapolis: Tennessee wins

NFC Wild Card Round
(7) Chicago at (2) Seattle: Seattle wins
(6) San Francisco at (3) Green Bay: San Francisco wins
(5) Los Angeles Rams at (4) Dallas: Los Angeles Rams win

AFC Divisional Round
(6) Cleveland at (1) Kansas City: Kansas City wins
(5) Tennessee at (2) Buffalo: Buffalo wins

NFC Divisional Round
(6) San Francisco at (1) Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins
(5) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Seattle: Seattle wins

Conference Championships
AFC: Buffalo at Kansas City: Buffalo wins
NFC: Seattle at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins

Super Bowl LVI: Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins

Award winners:
MVP: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay
OPOY: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
DPOY: TJ Watt, Pittsburgh
OROY: Justin Fields, Chicago
DROY: Micah Parsons, Dallas
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay
Comeback player of the year: Dak Prescott, Dallas

Coaches Fired:
Vic Fangio, Denver
David Culley, Houston
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona
Jon Gruden, Las Vegas

I'll try to come back and see how many of the 32 teams I correctly called their ceiling and basement, making sure to point out any teams that fell outside the range.  See you then!