The 2012 Major League Baseball season is almost upon us, so it is time for me to make some predictions. I will predict each team’s record, as well as award winners and who will win each playoff matchup. I’ll give a quick sentence or two on each team, explaining why I think they’ll do well or not. As you will see, I spend more time discussing American League teams than National League teams, but that’s because the Mariners are in the AL and play mainly AL teams. An asterisk denotes one of the two wild card teams.
Now with reviews from after the regular season!AL EAST1. New York Yankees: 98-64
The Yankees do have aging veterans, but they also added Michael Pineda to their rotation and are still one of the top hitting teams in the league. I see them playing inspired ball for Mariano Rivera this season, given that this is Rivera’s last.
They won the East just like I thought. They were 3 games worse than I predicted.2. Tampa Bay Rays: 91-71*
Many believe the Rays have the best rotation in the American League and they might. Their weaknesses are lack of a jumpstarter on offense and experience. They should at least contend all the way to the end of September.
I was just one game off, but they did not make the wild card like I predicted. Just too much talent in the AL with the resurgences of the O's and A's.3. Boston Red Sox: 88-74
Following that disastrous final day of the regular season, the Red Sox will come back still competitive but will again fall short. They will probably have this one season with new coach Bobby Valentine as a kind of “getting used to one another” experience but they should be in the race all season.
Well, I kinda knew they wouldn't make the playoffs again, but I didn't know they would finish in LAST with less than 70 wins! Way off here.4. Toronto Blue Jays: 79-83
The Jays suffer from the curse of playing in a very tough division. They are a team that is getting better and has some good young hitters. They will need one of the “Big Three” to struggle, either this year or next, for them to have any shot in the next two years.
The Jays struggled more than I thought they would but for a while they were playoff contenders. Oh well.5. Baltimore Orioles: 65-97
The O’s have an extremely shaky rotation that every other team in their division will beat up. They have good hitters in Markakis, Jones, and Wieters, but they may decide to rebuild, causing Markakis or Jones to possibly be traded.
Next time I'll REALLY look at a team's rotation before saying that! I was a whopping 28 games off. Good for the O-birds.AL CENTRAL1. Detroit Tigers: 96-66
There is no easier division to pick the division winner in than the AL Central—the Tigers are clearly the best team, lead by last season’s Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and new signee Prince Fielder. They might be the first team to clinch their division crown this season.
The Tigers won the AL Central, just like I predicted, but they weren't as dominant as I thought. They weren't the first to clinch their division. Their defense was suspect as I should have seen. 2. Kansas City Royals: 78-84
This team will be competitive, and they have good young hitters in Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler. They need to resign Alex Gordon and get a few good arms in the rotation before being a serious contender in the AL.
Another ho-hum season for the Royals. I was only off by 6 games. Will they ever get better? Who knows.3. Chicago White Sox: 74-88
There are too many question marks on this team. Will Konerko keep up his numbers, despite his age? Will Jake Peavy get back to his old form? Will Adam Dunn bounce back? Will Robin Ventura be a good Major League manager? Nine times out of ten a team with this many questions doesn’t make the playoffs.
The White Sox gave the Tigers a run for their money, but the Tigers have too much more money (to spend on players) than the Sox. Off by 11 games.4. Cleveland Indians: 72-90
They were a tale of two teams last year, and they did very little to improve this team. The veteran leaders on this team are constantly injured, leaving the young guys to try to lead, but it is too much pressure. This team is still a few moves and years away from being a consistent contender like they were in the 90’s.
Only off by 4 games, the Indians struggled off and on like I thought they would. 5. Minnesota Twins: 69-93
This has all the makings of a team headed down the toilet. Mauer and Morneau are neither durable nor playing as well as they have in the past, their rotation is lead by Carl Pavano, a middle of the order guy at best, and they lost two notable contributors this offseason (Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer). My prediction is that Mauer asks for a trade and Morneau retires early.
Only off by 3 games, and the Twins turned out to be even more horrible than I thought they'd be. Who plays on their team, again? They are the AL's Houston Astros... well that is until the Astros move to the AL next season. AL WEST1. Texas Rangers 93-69
The Rangers are the reigning division champs and they will be again. Yu Darvish will be good, but not great, seeing as he pitches in Texas. But they will hit as well as ever and be in quite a few high scoring games.
I am very proud to say I got their record EXACTLY right! Too bad they didn't win the west like I predicted. They had competition, but it was from a team I didn't expect. 2. Los Angeles Angels: 89-73*
The addition of Pujols to any ballclub adds at least ten wins, so the Angels became instant contenders when he signed with them. I see a bit of an adjustment period, similar to the Red Sox last year after they signed Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but the Angels should be good enough to nab one of the wild card spots.
Another team I got EXACTLY right with the W-L record! But... we can't forget the A's, who made the Angels a third place team. 3. Seattle Mariners: 78-84
Nope, no playoffs this year (again), but I got us at an 11 game improvement from last year, something I think most of us would take. We will have quite a few bright spots this season, but all the pieces aren’t there QUITE yet. It takes a lot longer to rebuild in baseball than most other sports.
I was off by only 3 games, which means an 8 game improvement, which is something. The Mariners had a bad run through parts of September that prevented them from getting back to .500. Oh well. 4. Oakland Athletics: 65-97
Their number 3 hitter is Coco Crisp. They lost Andrew Bailey and Gio Gonzalez in the offseason. They signed a guy well past his prime in Manny Ramirez. Things look bleak for the A’s this year, and not just with their team, but with their stadium situation.
To be 29 games off is kind of embarrassing, but who saw this coming? No real stars on their team, just a lot of guys who work hard and play hard. NL EAST1. Philadelphia Phillies: 95-67
They still have that amazing rotation. Until that rotation gets broken up, they will continue to win.
The Phillies are an aging ballclub and I should've seen that. They were injury plagued and it dropped them 14 games from what I predicted. 2. Atlanta Braves: 86-76
They had an up and down season last year, and I think they will have another. A lot rest on Jason Heyward.
The Braves were really good this year--I'll even say the best non-division winner. I should've picked them to win wild card. 3. Washington Nationals: 84-78
They will be one of the most improved teams and they will have a lot of bright spots this season, especially if we get to see Bryce Harper.
This Nats team came together a lot faster than I thought it would. They almost won 100 games! 4. Miami Marlins: 79-83
They have talent, but I see way too much potential chaos on this team. Too many big egos and Hanley Ramirez still isn’t happy about the switch, although he did accept it.
Boy what I right about them being a let-down; but they were even more of a let-down than I thought! 10 games off. 5. New York Mets: 72-90
They get Johan Santana back, but too many poor front office decisions lead them to this mess. They need to go in rebuild mode sooner rather than later.
I was only two games off, but they didn't finish in last place. NL CENTRAL1. Cincinnati Reds: 87-75 (Win tiebreaker)
With two of the game’s biggest stars leaving this division, it is now the Reds’ to lose. Joey Votto should emerge as the best first baseman in the division now.
No tiebreakers needed as they won the division by 9 games and I was 10 games off. 2. St. Louis Cardinals: 87-75*
Sure, they lost Pujols, but they still have a good rotation and good depth. They won’t repeat as champs, but they should still be contenders.
I was only ONE game off for the Cards. I knew they'd still be pretty good without Albert and I was right. 3. Milwaukee Brewers: 81-81
Losing Fielder will hurt them, perhaps even more than the Cardinals losing Pujols. They will compete, but miss out on the playoffs.
I was only two games off for the Brewers and they competed just like I said, but too much other talent to deal with in the NL. 4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 71-91
Another losing season? Yup. They’re headed in the right direction (I believe), but I think next year they’ll end their strike. They *might* come close this year.
And they did come close this year (a two game swing would've put them at .500). But a 20th straight losing season for the Buccos. 5. Chicago Cubs: 70-92
Former Mariner prospect Bryan LaHair at first base? Desperate much? I feel so bad for Cubs fans.
Cubs were even worse than I thought--other teams really put the smackdown on them. Off by 9 games.6. Houston Astros: 59-103
I will try to name five players on the Astros. Wandy Rodriguez, Carlos Lee… uh… I’m stumped. They move to the AL next year, so perhaps that will be good for them.
I find it really hard to believe the Astros did WORSE than what I predicted them to do. Not many teams fail to win 60 games. Off by 4. NL West1. San Francisco Giants: 93-69
Getting Buster Posey back, getting Melky Cabrera (A good gap hitter in a good park to hit doubles in), and holding onto Lincecum will keep the Giants not only competitive, but return them to being division champs.
Division champs: Check, Low to mid 90's in wins: Check. But who could've seen Melky being suspended for 50 games? I knew he'd be good and I was right... well, until he got suspended.2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 88-74*
I think the Dodgers emerge this season. I mean, after all, they have two of the NL’s best players in Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp.
Only two games off for the Dodgers, but they did not get a wild card spot like I thought they would. But they were close.3. Arizona Diamondbacks: 82-80
I think last year was a bit of a fluke. They will be competitive, but won’t have the magic they did last season.
Pretty much hit the nail on the head with this one. I was just one game off.4. San Diego Padres: 75-87
Hard to say if they should go in rebuilding mode. They keep letting go of their best players (Peavy, Gonzalez).
Again, nail, meet hammer. One game off here. 5. Colorado Rockies: 73-89
Good hitters? For the most part. Good pitching? Heck no. They almost need to build a roofed stadium to get pitchers to come to Colorado.
Oh, Rockies. When will you stop being the Rockies and be the ROCKIES? Off by 9 games. Yeesh.Awards:AL
MVP: Robinson Cano, Yankees
(Will be either Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera)Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
(Felix fell out of the race in September, sadly)Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero, Mariners
(Monterro wasn't horrible but he's nothing compared to Mike Trout)Coach of the Year: Joe Girardi, Yankees
(With the surprising A's and O's either Showalter or Melvin gets this)NL
MVP: Joey Votto, Reds
(No shot for Votto--injury plagued. Will go to Ryan Braun, Buster Posey, Yadier Molina or someone else)Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, Giants
(Oops. Tim's struggles were known to all Giants fans. This will go to Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel, or someone else.)Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper, Nationals
(Bryce might actually get this. His biggest competition is D-Backs pitcher Wade Miley)Coach of the Year: Don Mattingly, Dodgers
(Not too likely as the Dodgers failed to make the playoffs. This could go to either Davey Johnson of the Nats, Dusty Baker of the Reds, or Fredi Gonzalez of the Braves)2012 MLB Playoffs
Wild CardsAL
Angels at Rays: Rays
NL
Cardinals at Dodgers: Cardinals
Divisional RoundAL
Rays at Yankees: Yankees in 5
Rangers at Tigers: Tigers in 4
NL
Cardinals at Phillies: Phillies in 3
Reds at Giants: Giants in 4
League Championship SeriesAL
Tigers at Yankees: Yankees in 6
NL
Giants at Phillies: Giants in 7
World SeriesGiants vs. Yankees: Giants in 6
Well, there you have it. My 2
nd favorite team, the Giants, winning the 2012 World Series, making them the 2
nd professional team with the team name of Giants to win a championship this year. My 2012 Mariners preview will come shortly after this, with player and team predictions.