The 2012 Mariners season is almost upon us, and while the expectations from the fans isn't that high, there is a sense of muted optimism in the air. The Mariners traded for Jesus Montero (right) to be their catcher and hitting star for the future. We signed a few Japanese imports (Kawasaki and Iwakuma) and this is a young, hungry team. I will go over each player briefly that is expected to make the 25 man roster. I will then predict the Mariners final record, who will lead the team in certain categories, and other stats.Starting pitchers
Felix Hernandez - Two years removed from his Cy Young season, Felix looks to get his 2nd crown and again lead this pitching staff. I expect another solid season barring injury (knock on wood), and if he gets the run support he needs, he could actually be near the top in the AL in wins.
Jason Vargas - One of the pitchers rumored to be traded this offseason was Vargas, but instead the younger Michael Pineda was traded. Vargas has a lot to prove this season, like can he be a rotation mainstay? For the time being, he is expected to be Felix's #2, but if this team struggles early on, he could be out the door in a trade.
Hector Noesi - Acquired in the trade for Michael Pineda, Hector Noesi has been named the #3 starter for the club and will be given every chance to hold onto it to season's end. He's only 25 and from the Dominican Republic, so he could have a bright future with this ballclub.
Blake Beavan - He had a great emergence last year, showing he has the stuff to start in the Major Leagues. He replaced Doug Fister and did a really good job. Now the question is: Can he keep it up for a full season? His consistency will determine how long he holds a spot in the rotation.
Kevin Millwood - Kevin was somewhat surprisingly named the 5th starter, but he has a ton of Major League experience, and he can use that experience to help guys like Vargas, Beavan, and Noesi. I don't think many people expect him to be a rotation mainstay, but we'll see how he does.
Bullpen
Brandon League, Closer - Brandon had an all-star season last year, but many including myself won't forget the awful week he had where he blew five games in a row. Brandon's main problem is his confidence, and once he starts pitching poorly he loses a ton of it. League is also a player with a good chance to be traded before the deadline. But for now, he is the team's closer.
George Sherrill, Left Hander - George is in his 2nd stint with the team, and I expect him to be one of the team's more consistent relievers. He will mostly be used as a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY), but if he pitches well enough he could be the main set-up man for League.
Shawn Kelley, Right Hander - He pitches well--when he's healthy. The M's have to be careful to not overwork their bullpen, especially Shawn.
Erasmo Ramirez, Right Hander - Who knows what his future holds, but he is given a job on the 25 man roster. Expect him to not see too much action this year, especially if he struggles, which if he does, he will be sent back down.
Tom Wilhelmsen, Right Hander - Here's a guy that came out of nowhere last year. He is good for either mop-up work or pitching two or three innings in relief. He is currently the only Mariners pitcher with a Win as of this moment.
Hisashi Iwakuma, Right Hander - Some thought Iwakuma would make the rotation, but the coaches decided they didn't want to put too much pressure on the Japanese import. If he pitches well, he has a good shot of sneaking into that rotation at some point.
Lucas Luetge, Left Hander - A rule 5 draft pick, but he could surprise us. He is mainly in the bullpen to be the only other lefty, other than Sherrill. Don't expect him to be put in difficult situations.
Steve Delabar, Right Hander - He was decent after a call-up last season, but he has been so-so in his career, even in the minors. Hard to say what will happen to him, but part of me thinks he won't be on the roster when the season finishes.
Starting Lineup
1. Chone Figgins, 3B - Chone had a somewhat sub-par first season in Seattle, then last year was a disaster, hitting under .200 in 2011. Chone has now been given the leadoff spot in the order for the time being, and frankly, there isn't much more we can do for him to succeed. If he continues to struggle AGAIN, he will be out the door by the trade deadline.
2. Dustin Ackley, 2B - Dustin started off his Major League career really hot last year, then cooled down, but still had one of the best averages on the team last year. He is expected to be one of our most consistent hitters in just his first full major league season. I also look for his defense to improve. He may be moved to spots 1 or 3 in the order this year.
3. Ichiro Suzuki, RF - Ichiro struggled last year, and of his three yearly usual accomplishments, he achieved none. No 200 hits, no gold glove, and no All-Star appearance. Manager Eric Wedge thinks moving him to #3 will be good for Ichiro, whether or not it takes off any pressure is to be determined. We'll see how he handles it, but I don't expect him to finish the year hitting #3. I also worry he might get injured, given his age.
4. Justin Smoak, 1B - Justin started last year off really hot, but by mid-May and June he struggled, then got injured. He dealt with a lot, like the passing of his father, so we gave him a pass. But now is the time for Justin to prove he can be a middle of the order threat. Otherwise, we might have to start looking for a replacement first baseman for the future.
5. Jesus Montero, DH - As mentioned earlier, Jesus was acquired for Michael Pineda in a trade that will probably benefit both clubs. He is easily one of the best hitting prospects and is an early contender for AL Rookie of the Year. He'll be put into the middle of the order straight away, so we'll see how he handles it. He will see time at catcher, but they want to ease him into the position, so he'll only get a 1/3 of the catching duties, at most.
6. Mike Carp, LF - Carp was arguably the best power hitter on this team last year, and he is being rewarded with not only a spot on the roster, but a spot in the starting lineup in left field. Mike can also take over at first every now and then for Smoak and can also DH for Montero when Montero is catching or resting. Carp can hit anywhere from 3rd-7th in the order, and I expect him to do well.
7. Miguel Olivo, C - Miguel actually led this team in home runs last year, which is pretty sad, seeing how he didn't even hit 20. He's been put in a difficult situation with the Montero trade and will have a good chance of being dealt at the trade deadline. Until then though, I expect Olivo to hit well given the competition he now has.
8. Michael Saunders/Franklin Gutierrez, CF - With Guti again hurt, Michael Saunders will start the season in centerfield, given the hot spring he had. Saunders really struggled last year, and he is down to his last chance to make this team. Guti should be back before May starts and hopefully he can recover to the rangy and solid-hitting centerfielder we saw in 2009.
9. Brendan Ryan, SS - I recently read an article on Bleacher Report that said shortstop is our weakest position, and I don't blame them. Brendan is an average defender, with good hustle, and an average bat at best. You usually want a top of the lineup hitter or a defensive whiz at this position, neither of which Ryan fulfills. We might see a prospect come up at some point this year and see if he can take over (Nick Franklin, perhaps). Brendan Ryan is expendable, just like Jack Wilson was, so he might get traded as well.
Bench
John Jaso, C - I don't know a ton about John, seeing as we just acquired him this offseason, but I have the confidence that if we traded Olivo that he and Montero could together handle the catching duties. There is also Adam Moore, who creates a bit of a logjam at the catching position. I look for one of the three expendables (Olivo, Jaso, or Moore) to be gone by July.
Kyle Seager, INF - Because the club is continuing to stick with Figgins and Ryan, Seagar again is relegated to the bench and spot starts. He has the potential and he was a college teammate of Dustin Ackley's, so he could form a good middle infield combo with Ackley if given the chance. If Figgins or Ryan are traded or released, expect Seager to get a ton more starts.
Casper Wells, OF - Casper was acquired last year for Pauley and Fister along with Furbush and Chance Ruffin, and he played pretty well, especially when he hit a home run in four straight games. Casper is pretty much this team's fourth outfielder this season, so with the injury to Guti and Ichiro being a prime injury suspect, look for him to get a few starts.
Munenori Kawasaki, INF - Kawasaki at the very least should be a good fill-in at three infield spots, occasionally starting for Ackley, Ryan, and Figgins. If he plays well and Figgins/Ryan struggles, then he could get a lot more starts.
PREDICTIONS
Record: 78-84 (Range 70-92 to 85-77)
Batting leader: Ackley
HR leader: Smoak
RBI leader: Smoak
Wins leader: Felix
Saves leader: League
Team MVP: Felix Hernandez
Well, there you have it. Unless by some miracle, look for this season to be more of a building-block type season than a playoff run. If all goes well, I expect a serious playoff push next season in 2013. This team is coming together, we just can't get impatient and blow it up... again.
Blake Beavan - He had a great emergence last year, showing he has the stuff to start in the Major Leagues. He replaced Doug Fister and did a really good job. Now the question is: Can he keep it up for a full season? His consistency will determine how long he holds a spot in the rotation.
Kevin Millwood - Kevin was somewhat surprisingly named the 5th starter, but he has a ton of Major League experience, and he can use that experience to help guys like Vargas, Beavan, and Noesi. I don't think many people expect him to be a rotation mainstay, but we'll see how he does.
Bullpen
Brandon League, Closer - Brandon had an all-star season last year, but many including myself won't forget the awful week he had where he blew five games in a row. Brandon's main problem is his confidence, and once he starts pitching poorly he loses a ton of it. League is also a player with a good chance to be traded before the deadline. But for now, he is the team's closer.
George Sherrill, Left Hander - George is in his 2nd stint with the team, and I expect him to be one of the team's more consistent relievers. He will mostly be used as a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY), but if he pitches well enough he could be the main set-up man for League.
Shawn Kelley, Right Hander - He pitches well--when he's healthy. The M's have to be careful to not overwork their bullpen, especially Shawn.
Erasmo Ramirez, Right Hander - Who knows what his future holds, but he is given a job on the 25 man roster. Expect him to not see too much action this year, especially if he struggles, which if he does, he will be sent back down.
Tom Wilhelmsen, Right Hander - Here's a guy that came out of nowhere last year. He is good for either mop-up work or pitching two or three innings in relief. He is currently the only Mariners pitcher with a Win as of this moment.
Hisashi Iwakuma, Right Hander - Some thought Iwakuma would make the rotation, but the coaches decided they didn't want to put too much pressure on the Japanese import. If he pitches well, he has a good shot of sneaking into that rotation at some point.
Lucas Luetge, Left Hander - A rule 5 draft pick, but he could surprise us. He is mainly in the bullpen to be the only other lefty, other than Sherrill. Don't expect him to be put in difficult situations.
Steve Delabar, Right Hander - He was decent after a call-up last season, but he has been so-so in his career, even in the minors. Hard to say what will happen to him, but part of me thinks he won't be on the roster when the season finishes.
Starting Lineup
1. Chone Figgins, 3B - Chone had a somewhat sub-par first season in Seattle, then last year was a disaster, hitting under .200 in 2011. Chone has now been given the leadoff spot in the order for the time being, and frankly, there isn't much more we can do for him to succeed. If he continues to struggle AGAIN, he will be out the door by the trade deadline.
2. Dustin Ackley, 2B - Dustin started off his Major League career really hot last year, then cooled down, but still had one of the best averages on the team last year. He is expected to be one of our most consistent hitters in just his first full major league season. I also look for his defense to improve. He may be moved to spots 1 or 3 in the order this year.
3. Ichiro Suzuki, RF - Ichiro struggled last year, and of his three yearly usual accomplishments, he achieved none. No 200 hits, no gold glove, and no All-Star appearance. Manager Eric Wedge thinks moving him to #3 will be good for Ichiro, whether or not it takes off any pressure is to be determined. We'll see how he handles it, but I don't expect him to finish the year hitting #3. I also worry he might get injured, given his age.
4. Justin Smoak, 1B - Justin started last year off really hot, but by mid-May and June he struggled, then got injured. He dealt with a lot, like the passing of his father, so we gave him a pass. But now is the time for Justin to prove he can be a middle of the order threat. Otherwise, we might have to start looking for a replacement first baseman for the future.
5. Jesus Montero, DH - As mentioned earlier, Jesus was acquired for Michael Pineda in a trade that will probably benefit both clubs. He is easily one of the best hitting prospects and is an early contender for AL Rookie of the Year. He'll be put into the middle of the order straight away, so we'll see how he handles it. He will see time at catcher, but they want to ease him into the position, so he'll only get a 1/3 of the catching duties, at most.
6. Mike Carp, LF - Carp was arguably the best power hitter on this team last year, and he is being rewarded with not only a spot on the roster, but a spot in the starting lineup in left field. Mike can also take over at first every now and then for Smoak and can also DH for Montero when Montero is catching or resting. Carp can hit anywhere from 3rd-7th in the order, and I expect him to do well.
7. Miguel Olivo, C - Miguel actually led this team in home runs last year, which is pretty sad, seeing how he didn't even hit 20. He's been put in a difficult situation with the Montero trade and will have a good chance of being dealt at the trade deadline. Until then though, I expect Olivo to hit well given the competition he now has.
8. Michael Saunders/Franklin Gutierrez, CF - With Guti again hurt, Michael Saunders will start the season in centerfield, given the hot spring he had. Saunders really struggled last year, and he is down to his last chance to make this team. Guti should be back before May starts and hopefully he can recover to the rangy and solid-hitting centerfielder we saw in 2009.
9. Brendan Ryan, SS - I recently read an article on Bleacher Report that said shortstop is our weakest position, and I don't blame them. Brendan is an average defender, with good hustle, and an average bat at best. You usually want a top of the lineup hitter or a defensive whiz at this position, neither of which Ryan fulfills. We might see a prospect come up at some point this year and see if he can take over (Nick Franklin, perhaps). Brendan Ryan is expendable, just like Jack Wilson was, so he might get traded as well.
Bench
John Jaso, C - I don't know a ton about John, seeing as we just acquired him this offseason, but I have the confidence that if we traded Olivo that he and Montero could together handle the catching duties. There is also Adam Moore, who creates a bit of a logjam at the catching position. I look for one of the three expendables (Olivo, Jaso, or Moore) to be gone by July.
Kyle Seager, INF - Because the club is continuing to stick with Figgins and Ryan, Seagar again is relegated to the bench and spot starts. He has the potential and he was a college teammate of Dustin Ackley's, so he could form a good middle infield combo with Ackley if given the chance. If Figgins or Ryan are traded or released, expect Seager to get a ton more starts.
Casper Wells, OF - Casper was acquired last year for Pauley and Fister along with Furbush and Chance Ruffin, and he played pretty well, especially when he hit a home run in four straight games. Casper is pretty much this team's fourth outfielder this season, so with the injury to Guti and Ichiro being a prime injury suspect, look for him to get a few starts.
Munenori Kawasaki, INF - Kawasaki at the very least should be a good fill-in at three infield spots, occasionally starting for Ackley, Ryan, and Figgins. If he plays well and Figgins/Ryan struggles, then he could get a lot more starts.
PREDICTIONS
Record: 78-84 (Range 70-92 to 85-77)
Batting leader: Ackley
HR leader: Smoak
RBI leader: Smoak
Wins leader: Felix
Saves leader: League
Team MVP: Felix Hernandez
Well, there you have it. Unless by some miracle, look for this season to be more of a building-block type season than a playoff run. If all goes well, I expect a serious playoff push next season in 2013. This team is coming together, we just can't get impatient and blow it up... again.
No comments:
Post a Comment