Feelings after a Second Super Bowl Title for the Seahawks

I realized I hadn't talked about it on here yet, but yes, my Seattle Seahawks are once again Super Bowl Champions!  I don't know if it hasn't fully sunk in yet or if I've almost become numb to winning, but I'm not overly ecstatic about this one for some reason.  I am, of course, very surprised that in Mike Macdonald's second season EVER as a head coach, he won a Super Bowl with us.  He turned us around so quickly.  The unfortunate thing for him is that this will be hard for him to live up to.  But on the flip side, he will be able to coast on this one for a while, regardless of how the Hawks do in the next few years.  I'm going to go over my overall thoughts about this team, what I expect going forward, and if we have a potential dynasty brewing here.

I honestly believe that this defense had a better year than the 2013 Seahawks did.  They were dominant against the run, and outside of Puka Nacua, no star players had a good game against the Hawks this past year.  The 2013 Hawks were hard-hitting and forced turnovers, while this defense just doesn't allow yards or points.  I think the latter is overall better, because they didn't have to rely on turnovers to do well.  

I'm just mostly stoked we have a competitive team with likable players.  Sam Darnold, our quarterback, is one of the most likable quarterbacks in the league after what he has gone through.  Geno Smith had a similar arc and story, but he didn't exude likability.  We know that if we build a consistent winner here, Sam will do what it takes to agree to a contract extension when the time comes, rather than demand a high amount that would hurt the team to give out.

What's crazy about this #1 defense is that there aren't really any huge stars on it.  Sure, there are Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, and Ernest Jones, all of whom have gotten a Pro Bowl nod, at least second-team All-Pro, or both.  But they aren't the marketable defensive stars you see on other teams like TJ Watt, Maxx Crosby, Micah Parsons, Sauce Gardner, or Myles Garrett.  They're just a bunch of dudes.  It's funny that the best defense in the NFL only had one first-team All-Pro in Williams.  It shows the depth of this defense and how well-rounded they are.  Some defenses are poor against the pass, run, or both.  This team is poor against NOTHING.  There is not one situation or type of offense that they are weak against.  They can play heavy or light, whatever the situation calls for.  

I fully expect this team to continue to build, plug in holes when guys leave or retire, and continue to compete each and every year.  And if, worst-case scenario, they have a really bad year, general manager and team president John Schneider has shown he can build a team out given a few top picks, and isn't afraid to dish away a star player to help build a new team.  

It's crazy how the trades in recent years were mocked and lauded, only for them to work out swimmingly.  First, of course, was the Russell Wilson trade, which netted the Hawks multiple firsts and helped them land their stud left tackle in Charles Cross and a stud corner in Devon Witherspoon.  Then, just this past off-season, the trades of DK Metcalf and Geno Smith that netted the Hawks a second and third round pick.  The second round pick would eventually (after a trade with Tennessee) net them stud safety Nick Emmanwori, who was a vital contributor on the Super Bowl team.  The third round pick netted Jalen Milroe, who is a project QB, but I guarantee the Hawks are not going to just let him walk in a year or two.  

Do we have a potential dynasty?  Possibly.  The key will be if they can establish an identity on offense, and either get an offensive coordinator who will stick around, or establish an identity well enough so that it doesn't particularly matter who the OC is, as long as they stick to the script.  I think we're going to see a very competitive team from the Seahawks for the next several years, and I would not be surprised in the slightest if we saw another Super Bowl appearance or win.  I think best-case scenario we have a borderline dynasty, one that we could argue is a dynasty or not, similar to the Legion of Boom years in the 2010s.  

One thing that is potentially looming is the sale of the team.  Rumors have started sprouting about the team possibly going for sale.  If you have a good ownership situation, you do not want your team sold, but unfortunately, it will have to happen at some point, due to Paul Allen's passing and his sister Jodi serving as the temporary chairperson.  If the Hawks can get a good owner or a good ownership group, we should be ok.  I worry that the Hawks could go into someone's hands, like Jeff Bezos, who would only want to use the Hawks to further line his pockets and not be emotionally invested in the team.  I'll likely most a post about my thoughts when that happens, so I'll worry about that when the time comes.  

Ownership aside, I'm excited for the future.  Mike Macdonald will likely be our coach for a long time, and we know he's a good one.  And he seems like the kind of guy who isn't set in his ways, and is willing to evolve and change as the NFL game evolves and changes.  That's not something I could say about his predecessor.  And Sam Darnold, our QB, is already one of the top QB's in team history after just one year, so hopefully, he will grow and evolve as well and be a Seahawk for a long time, too.

2026 New NFL Head Coach Hire Grades

 I did this two years ago, when the Seahawks were in the market for a head coach for the first time in 14 years, so I thought I'd do it again with so many openings this off-season.  I'll go in order of date hired, and grade each from F to A+.  I just went back and re-graded the hirings from two years ago.  Some, like Macdonald and Morris, I was spot on about.  Others, like Canales and Callahan, I was very wrong about.  So it'll be interesting to see what I get right or wrong a few years from now.  

Giants hire John Harbaugh: B+
It's funny, I gave his brother's team an "A" for hiring him two years ago.  I just feel that in this situation, success is not guaranteed.  Harbaugh was treading water in Baltimore, and his players lost faith in him.  Why should we think he can turn around a struggling Giants organization?  Sure, he'll be better than Daboll as a head coach overall, but New York can be a nasty sports city, and any struggles will be harped on early.  But, what else is New York going to do?  This is their best bet.

Falcons hire Kevin Stefanski: B
Stefanski is a solid coach.  He made the most of what he was given in Cleveland.  Unfortunately for him, he goes from one mess of a QB room to another.  Can he get the most out of Michael Penix?  We know he'll be able to get good seasons out of Bijan, Pitts, and Drake London.  Just need to have a solid QB season, and of course, improve the defense.  The NFC South is potentially wide open, so it's anyone's for the taking.

Dolphins hire Jeff Hafley: D+
I feel like D+ might even be too nice.  Hafley is an uninspiring choice, and it's almost guaranteed that the Dolphins' offense is going to struggle in 2026, whoever the QB is.  They might have an above-average defense, but try telling that to the Jets.  I will be very surprised if Hafley lasts more than three seasons, if two.  He may keep them fairly competitive, but with the Patriots having returned to being competitive, the Bills having Josh Allen and a good roster, and the Jets potentially on their way up, the Fins could be in big trouble the next few years.

Titans hire Robert Saleh: C-
I'll give the Titans this: some defensive coaches do well on a second or third stint.  Here are a list of defensive-minded coaches who didn't have success until their second or third team: Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, and to some extent, Mike Vrabel.  Is Saleh one of those guys, though?  I'd have to say probably not.  Saleh already struggled in New York, and now he is tasked with turning around a bottom-feeder in Tennessee.  How is Cam Ward expected to succeed?  He'll need a great OC to help him, and even if they get one, he may get snatched away in a year or two to become a head coach.  Really needed an offensive coach here.  

Ravens hire Jesse Minter: B-
I guess this shows the Ravens wish they had kept Macdonald and promoted from within, but too late for that.  I'm not entirely sold on Minter being a head coach, because not every up-and-coming coordinator has success; see Saleh, Mike McDaniel, and Aaron Glenn to name a few.  But Minter's going to a stable, well-run organization with good ownership.  I could see this going either way, but considering the Ravens are well-run enough to have only had three head coaches in 30 seasons, I'd say it'll likely work out.

Steelers hire Mike McCarthy: D-
Feels weird to give an extremely stable organization like the Steelers a "D-", but they deserve it for this hire.  On one hand, I am happy for McCarthy, who will be able to coach the team he grew up rooting for.  On the other hand, there is an almost zero chance that this ends in something other than disappointment.  McCarthy won a Super Bowl in Green Bay with a stud, talented QB and a young team around him.  McCarthy benefited from having a great team built by their GM.  Ever since, he's been unable to get a team back to a Super Bowl.  He will almost undoubtedly be the shortest tenured Steelers head coach ever, and not just because he's starting older than the other coaches were when they left.  It's because he's this generation's Jeff Fisher, cashing in on one good year for an entire career.  The worst part of this all is that there was no one else wanting to hire him, and there was zero hurry to make this move, yet they hurried to make it.  They avoid an "F" because McCarthy, like his predecessor before him, will be able to keep the Steelers competitive, but he will also keep them from winning any trophies.

Bills hire Joe Brady: D+
Let me ask this.  When is the last time a team promoted from within, and it worked wonders?  I can't think of one.  This does not feel like a step forward for the Bills.  With the Patriots' resurgence, they needed a coach to offset Mike Vrabel, and they did not get it.  Now, they'll likely compete for wild cards on Josh Allen's talent alone.  Way to go.  This grade is a D+ and not any lower because there is a bit of upside to hiring a younger, offensive mind, as we have seen in recent years.  But man, I will be shocked if Joe Brady ever leads them to a Super Bowl.  He may not even lead them to a playoff win.

Browns hire Todd Monken: C-
I don't absolutely hate this hire, but Monken was marginal at best as an offensive coordinator, despite having Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.  Also, a first-time head coach at 60?  Basically unheard of these days.  There's a chance he can make them slightly competitive, but this is a very uninspiring and unsexy hire.  I do like that he comes from a stable organization, ironically, the one that used to be the Browns.  But how is he an improvement over Kevin Stefanski?  It feels like a downgrade.  Monken has more experience, but I don't think there are many fans that consider him a brighter offensive mind.  Perhaps he'll be better at handling the chaos in Cleveland.

Cardinals hire Mike LaFleur: C
I'm giving this one a 50/50 shot of working, so a C is the right grade.  On one hand, LaFleur could not get a struggling Jets offense to function.  On the other hand, it WAS the Jets, and he made the Rams offense look good under Sean McVay.  But again, he had McVay to guide him, so how will he do without him?  He's going to be tasked to find a way to succeed in the stacked NFC West.  My best bet is that he will have one good season (maybe his first or second) and then be coasting on that for a while.  Think Zac Taylor in Cincinnati, who, coincidentally, is also a McVay protege.  

Raiders hire Klint Kubiak: C+
I mostly hate that this forces the Seahawks to go find their fourth coordinator in the past four seasons.  I didn't have 100% faith in Klint the whole season, so it will be interesting to see how he does as a head coach.  He does have it in his blood, as his dad, Gary, was a head coach for the Texans and Broncos.  I think there's a semi-decent chance this works, but like LaFleur with the Cardinals, Kubiak is going to need some other team to take last place.  Will the Chiefs continue falling?  Will the Chargers or Broncos take a huge step back?  I feel like both are unlikely.  If they give Klint some time, this may work.  He will have weapons to work with.  My #1 piece of advice for their front office is to improve their offensive line and get one receiver weapon for their #1 draft pick to throw to.

Top Eight Tribal Councils of the New Era

The New Era is technically over with the conclusion of Survivor 49, so I thought I'd make a list ranking the Top Eight Tribal Councils of the New Era.  Why eight?  Because that is literally all that I can think of that were memorable enough to include on a list.  

These tribal councils were the ones that got me on the edge of my seat, got my heart pumping, got me shocked, or all of the above.  This will not include Final Tribal Councils or Firemaking Councils/challenges, so only up to the final five vote.  It would include potential final four votes, but they essentially got rid of them by including forced firemaking.  Perhaps if I remember another, I'll include it on this list, and make any changes in a different color.


8. Survivor 48: Mary's Shot in the Dark hits, Cedrek is left deciding between Sai and Justin
I'm only ranking this at eight because it involved a player losing their vote in Justin, but this tribal was pretty crazy.  Mary was the fairly obvious target, so she played her Shot in the Dark, which miraculously hits and saves her.  Then, on the revote, there is a split between Sai and Justin.  Then some wonky Survivor rules came into play, which meant Cedrek, by not being a part of the vote (but still having one), was the only one who would decide who went home, and he shockingly went against his original vote for Sai and sent Justin home.  I felt so bad for Justin, especially since he lost his vote in a manner that was completely outside his control.

7. Survivor 42: Deadlock between Jenny and Lydia, and Strunk caves in
Another smaller pre-merge tribal, this one was also a deadlock, and they got to a point where drawing rocks was on the table.  Hai stood firm and said he would go to rocks, not giving away his position.  Daniel Strunk, however, really did not want to go to rocks and caved, and Jenny was sent home.  The tension in the air for this one was palpable.  And for Strunk, he ended up being voted out two episodes later, so maybe he should have just gone to rocks.  And this is lower with number eight because it involved a player, Chanelle, losing her vote.  If she had not risked her vote, this tribal council would have never happened, at least not this way.

6. Survivor 48: Kyle and Kamilla blindside original Lagi and Thomas with their idol and advantage
After the tribe swap in 48, Kyle and Kamilla found themselves on the bottom against the three original Lagi men in Joe, Thomas, and Shauhin.  Fortunately for them, they had acquired an idol and an extra vote before then.  Leading up to the vote, Kyle and Kamilla expertly duped the other three into thinking they weren't close and would just vote for the other.  However, when tribal came, they played both the idol and advantage correctly, and Thomas was blindsided.  Now, with the successful idol play, the extra vote was not necessary, but they were likely being extra safe.  It was still an epic blindside.

5. Survivor 44: First Vote on Ratu results in the first successful Shot in the Dark, a Shot in the Dark used to hide someone's allegiance, a banked vote, and a successful idol play.
This will likely forever be my favorite first vote of a season in the New Era.  Before tribal, Brandon found an Idol, which he ultimately played for himself.  Yet, the majority of the people who actually voted decided to vote for Brandon, hoping he wouldn't play it, or, at the very least, would flush it from him.  Jaime played her Shot in the Dark as she was worried at her first tribal (when she shouldn't have been), and it became the first ever Shot in the Dark to hit, although it negated zero votes.  Matthew strategically used his Shot in the Dark to hide his allegiance (since it took his vote away).  Lauren earned a Bank a Vote advantage on the journey, which she used to save her vote for a later tribal council, and Brandon played the idol he found earlier to negate Kane and Maddy's votes on him.  That all resulted in Brandon's lone vote for Maddy being the only vote that counted, sending her home.  

4. Survivor 45: Final five vote results in a 2-1-1 vote, and Dee narrowly escapes a blindside
This final five vote was crazy.  Case in point, without Jake's idol play on Katurah, it would have been a 2-1-1-1 vote.  Madness.  Anyway, Jake was counting on Katurah voting out Dee, and his good faith gesture in her agreeing to the plan was him playing his idol on her.  But Katurah did not repay Jake's kindness, voting instead for the safe vote of Julie.  Had she gone with Jake, the season would have turned out much differently.  This vote definitely sank Jake's game.  

3. Survivor 45: Kaleb's Shot in the Dark Hits, negating a unanimous vote
The season prior, we witnessed the first-ever Shot in the Dark to hit in Jaime's.  But it did not negate any votes.  Kaleb knew he was the target, so he played his Shot in the Dark, and for the first time in Survivor history, it negated votes.  Not only did it negate votes, but it negated a majority vote, AND it negated a record 11 votes.  No other idol play or shot in the dark play has ever negated that many votes.  The reactions by everyone, especially Kaleb, when Jeff revealed the "Safe" parchment, made this moment special.  Unfortunately for J. Maya, they had to revote, and she was the next target after Kaleb.

2. Season 45: Kellie's blindside results in some memorable reactions
This vote showed we don't have to see idols or advantages to have a great tribal.  At this tribal, Jake was at the bottom, and he was the perceived boot by many, including most of the audience.  But little did many know, the majority had turned on Kellie due to her being a threat.  It resulted in two great reactions from those who got votes.  First, Jake's epic reaction of "WOAH...!  Sorry... woah," is still hilarious to this day, showing how he initially reacted and then corrected his reaction to be more polite.  Then Kellie's "What the hell, guys?" was the cherry on top, as she grabbed her torch.  We need more reactions like this when people get voted out!

1. Survivor 43: Jesse blindsides Cody and flushes Karla's idol all in one fell swoop
This may be the greatest performance at a single tribal council in the New Era, maybe in all of Survivor.  Jesse managed to sway Gabler and Owen into blindsiding Cody.  Not only that, but he managed to flush Karla's idol by playing one he had recently held onto from Cody.  Cody had wanted it back, but Jesse was able to hang onto it for one vote long enough to blindside him.  This instantly put Jesse at the very top as the frontrunner, and if he could've only beaten Gabler in fire, he easily would've won this season.  

Determining Through Process of Elimination Who Will Win Survivor 50

 Survivor 50 is just more than a month away, and I thought I'd attempt to determine the winner of this upcoming season by process of elimination.  Basically, I'm slowly going to exclude players in groups or one by one until I'm down to one.  At one point, I will say which group I think the winner will almost assuredly come from, but I will still narrow down all the way to one.  This will be fun to go back to once the season is over to see how close I was, and what metric may have eliminated the winner (when it shouldn't have).

As a refresher, here are the players, in order of first appearance on Survivor:
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty, Colby Donaldson, Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick, Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Coach Wade, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Angelina Keeley, Mike White, Rick Devens, Jonathan Young, Emily Flippen, Dee Valladares, Tiffany Ervin, Q Burdette, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, Joe Hunter, Kyle Fraser, Rizo Velovic, Savannah Louie

Now I'm going to eliminate them based on things that typically winners do not exemplify. 

The first thing I'm going to eliminate is the known final tribal goats.  These players are either laughingstocks or not taken seriously, and haven't necessarily made a final tribal council, but if they did, they got at most 1 vote.  Now, if someone did get to a final tribal council and got 1 or 0 votes, that doesn't necessarily mean they will be kicked out here.  It's based on whether I think they can change.

With that, we will eliminate Stephanie, Angelina, Mike, Jonathan, Q, and Joe.  Considered Chrissy, but I feel like she could make a better FTC case.

That leaves the remaining group at Jenna Lewis-Dougherty, Colby Donaldson, Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Coach Wade, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Rick Devens, Emily Flippen, Dee Valladares, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, Kyle Fraser, Rizo Velovic, and Savannah Louie.

Now I probably should've done this from the start, but the second thing we are eliminating potential winners from is if they were a previous winner.  I can't see a single winner being allowed to get to the end.  And if they did, I can't see a jury re-rewarding them.  So that kicks out Dee, Kyle, and Savannah.  

That leaves us with Jenna Lewis-Dougherty, Colby Donaldson, Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Coach Wade, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Rick Devens, Emily Flippen, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, and Rizo Velovic.

Next we are going to take out players that haven't played too recently.  Here is how many seasons passed between a returning player's win and their previous season: 6, 4, 13, 2, 3, 7, 2, 6, 6.  Sandra was the outlier at 13.  But no one has ever won with more than 13 seasons separating them from their previous season.  However, Survivor has been slack on the returning player seasons in recent years, so I'll be a little lax myself and allow back to 34, Game Changers.  So I am going to have to eliminate Jenna, Colby, and Coach.  

That leaves us with Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Rick Devens, Emily Flippen, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, and Rizo Velovic.

I'm going to eliminate Rizo.  People haven't seen his game, and even if he somehow manages to sneak his way to the end (unlikely), he's likely not beating more experienced/likable players.  So we are down to 11.  

In what will perhaps be the hardest round for me personally, I'm going to have to eliminate the final tribal council darlings.  These are players that are just too likable for their own good.  So that will eliminate Cirie, Christian, and Rick Devens.  I recall seeing a video Jeff posted after 50 finished shooting, and he didn't seem too thrilled/excited for the result, which leads me to believe these three did not win.

That leaves us with the 8 of Ozzy Lusth, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Emily Flippen, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, and Kamilla Karthigesu.  

Now I'm going to eliminate those who wouldn't be taken to the end, and can't win fire or immunity easily.  That eliminates Emily and Kamilla.  I don't think either has a good path to get to the end.  By the way, this also would have eliminated Cirie.

We are left with the 6 of Ozzy Lusth, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, and Genevieve Mushaluk.  

Now I'm going to eliminate Ozzy.  Sorry Ozzy.  One, it's been 16 seasons since he played, and two, he has never shown the strategic or social acumen to win.  He's a likely target around the merge, like he was in Game Changers.  

That leaves us with Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, and Genevieve Mushaluk.  This is the group I think the winner is almost for sure coming from.  But now I have to make some tough calls.  From this point on, I think I will likely eliminate the winner if I haven't already.  And I'm going to go one by one at this point, with a brief explanation for each.  

Tiffany is out.  Do people want Tiffany to be the Winner of 50?  I can't see it.  

Charlie is next out.  He was the last man standing for me.  He's too big a threat, nearly winning and showing skill in all phases of the game.

Aubry is next out.  She has slowly gotten worse each time playing, and she is a known social/strategic threat.  

That leaves us with Chrissy and Genevieve.  And I'm going to eliminate Chrissy.  She has a great story, but I think she's a bit too old, might be sniped early, etc.  Too many things could go wrong for her.  That leaves Genevieve Mushaluk of Survivor 47 as my winner pick!  Crazy as it might seem, she's going fly under the radar and then make a great case at final tribal.  I'm curious to see if I'll be right on this one.  I'll do my Survivor 50 Preview and Predictions when it gets closer, but it looks like my winner pick will indeed be Genevieve.

10 Changes Survivor NEEDS to make for Seasons 51 and Up

Obviously, I love the show, "Survivor".  I've gone over how to improve the show before, but this time I want to go over ten changes the show really needs to make post-Season 50.  It'll be another chance for a new era, a fresh start.  Also, these ten changes are ones the show could easily make and most of them wouldn't cost them any more money.  So, here are changes I think most fans would absolutely approve of, in no particular order:

1. Either go back to two tribes at the start, or keep mixing it up
This has been something that hardcore fans have grown tired of.  For nine straight seasons, (41-49), the show started with three tribes of six people.  Why?  Smaller tribes are ok on occasion, but not at the start of every season.  Why can't we have two tribes of eight, nine, or ten people every now and then?  Is that too much to ask?  Jeff needs to get over his obsession with this setup.

2. Quit taking away flint
A minor change, but a necessary change nonetheless.  Part of the punishment of losing a pre-merge challenge is that the losing tribe loses its flint.  That action has only increased the odds of a tribe continuing to lose and falling significantly behind in numbers, creating the dreaded "disaster tribe."  It also adds basically nothing to the entertainment value. 

3. No mergatory, just merge at different times
We don't need to split people up as part of the merge.  Why, for so long, did they have to "earn" the merge?  For 40 seasons, earning the merge meant surviving enough votes or winning enough tribal challenges to get to the merge stage of the game.  Please revert to that.  They did for 49, so I have high hopes they will for 50 and beyond.  To keep it fresh, merge at different times like they did before 40.  

4. Only split people up post-merge for a reward

Another pet peeve we hardcore Survivor fans have is how they split players up post-merge for not only immunity, but sometimes separate tribal councils.  Too many players have gotten screwed by being put in a group with no allies.  Jeff Probst seems to like it when luck is a major factor in Survivor, but introducing twists like this adds way too much luck to the game.  We don't want to see lucky players win, we want to see GOOD players win.

5. Fewer journeys
I initially hated "journeys", when players go off to a separate island to compete for an advantage.  I think I'm okay with them now, in moderation.  I hate seeing them in every pre-merge episode.  I most dislike how they use them to replace separate reward challenges.  Gone are the days when most Survivor episodes were a reward, an immunity, and a tribal council.  I would like it if they could throw in a couple more pre-merge reward challenges and stop combining the reward with immunity every time.  Sometimes, all a struggling tribe needs is to win a reward, and they can't do that if it's always paired with immunity.

6. No forced loss of votes

One of my personal biggest pet peeves of modern Survivor is how easily players lose their votes.  It's especially irksome when the player(s) involved have zero say in whether they lose their vote or not.  Losing their vote to play their shot in the dark?  Fine.  Lose their vote to get a beware advantage?  Also ok.  Losing your vote because you were selected for a journey?  NOT OK.  Too many players have been screwed over by this.  If you give the players the choice, that's fine.  But do not instantly say they lose their vote and have to "earn" it back.  Again, this is production forcing luck to be a part of the game, which most fans do not like.

7. Give them a small amount of rice at the start
Survivor players used to instantly get rice.  Yes, that was for 39-day seasons, but even for 26-day seasons, not having ANY food really takes a toll on them, and makes them more lethargic and less active with gameplay and strategy.  I even recently saw a comment from Sophi on Season 49 where she said she would have been way more active if she had any food.  You want exciting gameplay, Jeff?  Give them a small amount of food.  Doesn't have to be a lot.  Just enough so they aren't lifeless and have zero energy.

8. Make idols hard to find and introduce idol clues again
Think of the most iconic idol finds in Survivor history.  Yul on Exile Island.  Terry on Exile Island.  Russell without a clue.  Idols finds were fun to watch when they were very hard to find and typically required a clue to find.  Too often in the New Era, they put them between waist and eye level, and we can see them sticking out of a crevice.  They need to bury them again, or even put them at challenges again.  Just change it up.  The "beware advantage" format is beyond stale.

9. Diversify challenges
I wish I had a nickel for every pre-merge challenge in the New Era that ended in a puzzle or a post-merge challenge in the New Era that was endurance-based.  It seems like the majority of each.  Challenges used to be my favorite part of every episode because of how unique and diverse each was.  I know Jeff has stated they want to stay away from physical challenges that could result in injury, such as Sumo at Sea and Smergenbrawl, but there are other challenges in Survivor's history I would love to see return that pose no risk of physical harm.  How about the memory challenges from Amazon or Worlds Apart?  Or how about the memory math challenge from Tocantins that Stephen dominated?  Or how about the knowledge-based games that have players holding a cube and using that for their answers?  Jeff is so insistent on every challenge having a physical and puzzle element early on, and an endurance element in the post-merge.  Change it up, Jeff, please!

10. Cast from more backgrounds
I'm very happy Survivor is casting more diversely, ethnically.  However, that has caused them to cast too many people in white collar cushy jobs and not enough blue-collar "struggling to make ends meet" jobs.  Where are the construction workers?  Where are the waiters and waitresses?  Where are the cashiers and stockers?  I know those kinds of people apply too, so why are they being avoided?  And while I'm at it, a large chunk of New Era players are from two regions in the U.S.: California and the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.  I would wager around 40% if not more, New Era players are from those two regions.  Where are the people from the Midwest, the South Atlantic, and Appalachia?  How about the Pacific Northwest, my home region?  And lastly, while I am still on the topic of casting, I would suggest they cast fewer super fans and more casual fans.  Survivor actually had some of its best seasons when casting recruited.  Casting itself has gotten stale, and the head of casting, Jesse Tannenbaum, NEEDS to have a different approach.  Not everyone has to be a good storyteller.  When everyone is a decent storyteller, nobody sticks out, and the season is not memorable.

BONUS: Let things speak for themselves rather than having the player narrate in a confessional
Survivor editors/producers need to focus more on showing us rather than telling.  I feel like every advantage/idol find, and every journey is narrated by the person involved, and I'd rather just have the moment speak for itself.  Watch past seasons.  They allow moments to speak for themselves, and only add a confessional when it adds to the moment.  But in modern Survivor, they have the player narrate in the confessional.  I'd much rather have them do the journey or find the idol, then, after it's over, talk about it, rather than narrating it and explaining it as it happens.

It Hurts

To be one game away from our first World Series appearance... it hurts.  We had not one but two shots at clinching our first ever pennant, and we blew it both times.  We had a chance to even clinch on our home field, if we could just win 2 of 3 at home, but we couldn't.  As a lifelong Mariners fan, you wonder if it will ever truly be your year, your time to shine, and your chance for happiness.  The Mariners have now played 49 seasons.  At most, they've played with 14 other American League teams, so the law of averages would state they would be the final AL team about 3 times so far in their history.  Nope.  Not even once.  The Mariners have now been one step shy of the World Series four times, and all four times have failed.  I think I can begin to relate to how Buffalo Bills fans feel, how they were one step short of a Super Bowl win four times and failed all four times.  It doesn't seem remotely likely, yet it happened.  

I have to remember that after barely missing the playoffs the last two seasons, expectations were tempered for 2025.  Heck, even heading into September this year, the Mariners were at best expected to be a wild card.  But they went out and won the division for the first time in 24 years.  That was one milestone this team was long overdue to accomplish.  And, when they weren't expected to, they went out and did it.  

Now comes a crossroads for this team.  Will they continue to try to improve and take a step forward, or will they take a step back?  This may be the most important offseason in Mariners history.  Expectations are likely going to be high for this team in 2026.  Anything short of back-to-back division titles will likely be a disappointment.  

I think one of the most crucial factors that will determine this team's success next season, and their overall long-term success, is how they handle this heartbreak mentally.  Will they let it haunt them, or will they use it as motivation?  Cal Raleigh is now this team's vocal leader, so he'll need to lead by example, which he has so far done as a big league catcher.  In my mind, he's the MVP for that reason.  

But we have to continue to temper our expectations for the next season.  We expect too much, and disappointment becomes ever more likely.  I want to say this team will continue where they left off in 2025, but we have seen collapses before.  After the Seahawks lost Super Bowl XLIX, they could not handle it all too well, and they struggled out of the gate the following season and still to this day have not even returned to the NFC Championship game.  

But we can also be optimistic.  But I would advise caution.  This is a team that would rank near the bottom in MLB in terms of success vs. the age of the franchise.  They play their 50th season in 2026, and the question is, will it be a memorable one?  I would wager to say yes.  But will it be memorable for the right reasons?  That remains to be seen.  

Survivor 49 FOUR WORD GAME

Survivor 49 has had its premiere, and I think we're in for another good season.  Like past seasons, I'm going to give each player remaining in the game (and the booted player) four words to describe the current state of their game, what they need to do, what I noticed, and anything that might stand out about them to me.  I'll then elaborate a tiny bit on that, especially only a little early on, considering I have a lot of players to get through.  

As always, I'll be starting with my lowest-ranked player, then going sequentially to my highest-ranked player.  This first week is based on my pre-season rankings from my other Survivor 49 post.  Let's go!

EPISODE 1 FOUR WORD GAME

Matt: WAY off on him
I don't know why I thought he'd be an even kookier Gabler, but I did.  But no, Matt seems to be very well-prepared for Survivor, at least physically.  His biggest obstacle will be connecting with players 20+ years younger than him.  But he seems grounded and 

Steven: Tribe gushing over him
Another I think I may have been way off on is Steven.  His whole tribe seemed to gush over him: Matt, Jason, and MC.  That is HUGE.  I can no longer see him as a pre-merge boot.  He may have a long run in him.  We shall see.

Shannon: Connecting better than expected
Shannon seemed to form a duo with Savannah.  And you know what, that's EXACTLY what I thought would happen when first seeing the tribe divisions.  But I allowed other people's predictions for her to infiltrate my mind.  I gotta go with my gut more.

Nate: Call him Papa Cool
At least, that's what I would if I was on his tribe, even though Nate is less than 6 years older than me... sigh.  He seemed to immerse himself well on his tribe, connecting with Savannah.  

Sage: Too weird for Survivor
She's mentioned collecting pimples (pre-season interview), peeing off the boat and showing her butt, and that she likes poop.  There is no way she will be taken seriously if she gets to the final tribal.  I did like how she connected with Shannon, but I get this feeling Shannon would turn on her if she had to.

Jason: This season's puzzle master
We've had some puzzle masters in the New Era (Evie, Carson, Kamilla), and I think Jason could join their ranks.  He dominated the cube puzzle in the first challenge.  

Kristina: Cirie style of edit?
Cirie's first ever episode of Survivor showed her afraid of bugs and leaves and how she's a couch potato.  VERY similar of edit and story for Kristina.  I 100% believe they are trying to recreate a New Era Cirie.  Whether or not they are successful, I'm not sure.  I'm surprised we didn't see an instant connection between her and MC, but perhaps their personalities are too different.

Alex: Set up to fail
Not just in the one-on-one challenge against Rizo, but the edit is setting him up to be blindsided.  At least that's how it feels to me.  But in the challenge, man, how could he have 15 extra minutes of digging and not find the shipwheel before Rizo?  I like his connection to Jake, and he tried to make one with Annie before she threw his name out.  

MC: Physically perfect for Survivor
She seems in great shape.  I don't think we got much of her game socially or strategically.  One note I'll make here: She sounds a lot like Sydney (Ayo Edibiri) from the TV show "The Bear".  They have similar voices.  Would love to see more next week from MC.

Jawan: Not a great start
He seemed to really be into the fact that Nate worked on a Spider-Man film, but we never saw Jawan and him connect much.  Then, he tries to start a fire, and it gets to him both physically and mentally, and Savannah takes notice.  Just not a great start for him.  Savannah DID like him, but after his fire-making debacle, she might be willing to just let him go.

Sophi: Have to be careful
And what I mean by that is if people notice you're making too many connections, they will target you.  See Swati in 42.  But the way it was portrayed, it didn't seem too bad.  I think she's in a great spot, since Annie would prefer to go with her and Jeremiah over Jake and Alex.

Jeremiah: That damn annoying laugh...
My word.  I don't know if I can take a full season of it.  Here's hoping we have a few episodes without it.  I do like his positioning in the game and the connection he made with Sophi.  He seemed to also get along with Jake, a fellow Canadian.  Socially, he seems to be there, unless people realize they can no longer put up with his annoying laugh.

Jake: Too much bro energy
He's just too much.  I do like his connection with Alex, but I am foreseeing a blindside on him shortly after the merge.  He should survive the pre-merge unless their tribe is dumb and wants to lose 3+ pre-merge challenges.  

Annie: Doesn't have it socially
She literally said she's never done a competition with a social element before.  RED FLAG.  She also threw Alex's name out AFTER making an alliance with him.  She also went off on her own and didn't connect to too many other people (Sophi, kind of).  

Rizo: Will be featured player
He's definitely going to finish at or near the top for confessionals, no doubt.  Sure, the one-on-one challenge helped since they make players narrate it, but he still would've been in the top half without it I think.  He also seems to have ingratiated himself well into his tribe.  His tribe seems to like him.  

Sophie: Did well guiding challenge
I really don't recall any camp life stuff with her, so this is all I have.  She seems to remain calm under pressure, which is good.  But I feel if she was a major player this season, she would have had more in the premiere episode.  Plus, we don't know of any alliance for her.  So I am a bit concerned.

Savannah: Exactly how I predicted
I had a good feeling that Savannah would form good bonds early.  She would be the one person on her tribe I would most be surprised to be blindsided.  We saw her perspective on a few different things, which always bodes well for a potential winner.  

And to our departed player...

Nicole: Not for this show
Physically she wasn't handling it well.  Socially, she spit in Jeremiah's face to help clear the mud out of his eyes, which I'm sure rubbed him at least a little the wrong way.  And lastly, she couldn't detect that her tribemates were lying to her.  She just wasn't cut out for Survivor, unfortunately.

First official power rankings!  There is obviously going to be a LOT of movement early from my pre-season rankings.  Some players I think I already got massive misreads on.  

17th: Jawan (-9)
16th: Annie (-12)
15th: Sophie (-13)
14th: Sage (-1)
13th: Kristina (-2)
12th: Alex (-2)
11th: Shannon (+4)
10th: Jake (-5)
9th: Jason (+3)
8th: Matt (+10)
7th: Sophi (0)
6th: MC (+3)
5th: Nate (+9)
4th: Jeremiah (+2)
3rd: Steven (+14)
2nd: Rizo (+1)
1st: Savannah (0)

Big risers: Matt (+10), Nate (+9), Steven (+14!)
Big fallers: Jawan (-9), Annie (-12), Sophie (-13)

Comment: Jawan falls the hardest for me and to #17.  I'm going to predict we don't quite have a disaster tribe this season and both red and yellow go to tribal pre-merge.  I worry for Jawan if red goes.  I'd like to put Annie higher, but socially, she just doesn't seem to be quite there.  I also thought that about Gabler, so maybe she has a Gabler-style run in her.  Then we have a bunch of players we didn't see enough strategy from (#15-11), then some who I got good feelings about but still worry a bit (#10-6).  My top 5 I could see going far.  We shall see.  

AFTER EPISODE 2 FOUR WORD GAME

Jawan: Endeared himself to tribe
Interesting how we got Savannah's take on it (again), but Jawan did endear himself to his tribe by not only winning the journey but choosing to help his tribe over himself.  But then that put him in the tough spot of having to alienate an entire tribe.  For that reason alone, I might've chosen to help myself.

Sophie: Somehow connected to group
We saw something, I guess, with her connecting through MC to the main foursome on Hina.  But Sophie undoubtedly will be in trouble if Hina loses a challenge, which after seeing this past immunity, might not happen.

Sage: Oddly sat out challenge
To me, Sage comes across as one of the more physical women on the cast, having served in the military.  Yet she was Uli's first ever sit out.  Not tiny Savannah, not skinny Shannon, and not skinny Rizo.  Her.  Seems like it worked out, though.

Kristina: Should watch allies closely
Especially MC, who seems to maybe not want to be in the group.  We might have a power struggle.  But with how little content we've gotten from Hina, they might not go to a pre-merge tribal.  

Alex: Saving idol smart move
Also was getting Jake to help him.  If Alex had saved Annie, that would have earned her trust but lost Jake's, Sophi's, and Jeremiah's.  He is now the most powerful player in the game, being the only one currently with an idol or advantage.

Shannon: Spiritual stuff must stop
She can't be the Kumbaya leader, even if that makes people happier.  People won't respect her as a Survivor player at the end.  Shannon might get far, but her win equity remains low.

Jake: Shoe bandit must stop

Even if he doesn't get caught, it's contributing to his tribe's low morale.  If he absolutely must do it, he needs to hide his own shoe.  But so far, the person whose shoe he has hidden has been voted out, so that might not be the wisest.

Jason: Still the puzzle king
Hina absolutely killed it at the challenge, and it was largely because of Jason's puzzle prowess.  Even Jeff is starting to take notice.  Let this be a lesson to future Survivor players.  It's more important to be able to do puzzles than to be in top notch physical shape.  Although you do have to be in somewhat good shape.

Matt: Smart to form alliance

And it was an interesting one, with two white males and two black females.  I don't think we have ever had an alliance like that on Survivor.  I think it will largely be on Matt to keep it together and not do anything to cause the women to go with Sophie and pick up Jason.

Sophi: Weirdly close to Jake
I'm getting a weird vibe with how close she seems to be to Jake, but it's not really shown, only told.  Like the producers are cutting stuff out they don't want to show us.  Anyway, Sophi needs to pick it up at puzzles or she could be the next to go.

MC: Absolutely right move made
Not only did she form a foursome, but she connected with Sophie just in case she wanted to make a move against them.  Worst comes to worst, she turns on Sophie pre-merge, which won't hurt her since Sophie wouldn't be on the jury.  

Nate: He's not that old
I'm sorry, but Nate is still a millennial.  He is now the old man on his tribe.  That's crazy to me.  I'm a millennial, so it makes me feel old as well.  At least he's trying to relate to his tribe.

Jeremiah: Next on chopping block?
He might be.  If Kele loses AGAIN, it sure looks like Jeremiah might be the next to go.  He seems the least connected player remaining on his tribe.

Steven: Left out, stock falls
Steven was largely absent from this past episode, so my winner stock in him ultimately has to fall.  I like how he formed that foursome with Matt, MC, and Kristina, and I think even if MC and Kristina turn on them, they're more likely to turn on Matt than Steven... I think.

Rizo: Showing that generational gap 
I think that was Rizo's purpose this past episode.  We saw a bit from Savannah as well, but mostly Rizo.  He was largely devoid of any real game content, so that's a small concern, but I don't believe winners in the New Era get game content EVERY episode.

Savannah: Devious but at top
I'm keeping Savannah here until I see any large evidence to think otherwise.  She's gotten good content the first two episodes and outside of Kele has been the most consistently prominent player.  

And to our departed player...

Annie: Not her ideal season
Switch Annie with Sue Smey from 47.  Does Sue do any better this season?  I don't think she does.  She wouldn't help the tribe more.  My point is, Annie was put on a bad tribe on a less than ideal season.  Timing is everything in Survivor, including what season you get put on.

New power rankings!  Obviously, this early on, there will be a LOT of movement.  I've definitely gone back and forth on multiple players.  Here it is:

16th: Jeremiah (-12)
15th: Sage (-1)
14th: Jawan (+3)
13th: Sophie (+2)
12th: Jason (-3)
11th: Matt (-3)
10th: Alex (+2)
9th: Sophi (-2)
8th: Kristina (+5)
7th: Steven (-4)
6th: MC (0)
5th: Jake (+5)
4th: Nate (+1)
3rd: Shannon (+8)
2nd: Rizo (0)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rise: Shannon (+8)
Biggest fall: Jeremiah (-12)

I'm going all-in on Kele being the disaster tribe and voting out Jeremiah next episode.  Yes, he was included in the promo for 49, but so was Brandon Donlon for 45.  The next few are who I feel are either at the bottom of near the bottom of their tribes, then two of the other Kele and Alex and Sophi, than the remaining Hina members, then Jake, then the power alliance on Uli.  With Kele struggling and Hina not getting screen time, that says to me Uli is the tribe that goes furthest in this game.  That's usually the case.  It's not the disaster tribe (outside of 44), and it's not the tribe ignored in the edit.  We shall see.  

AFTER EPISODE 3 FOUR WORD GAME
Quick side note: I did NOT like this past episode.  Kele lost again, and I am so sick of the current format which almost ensures we have one tribe taking up all the screen time and time at tribal.  It's BEYOND old at this point.  Also, I was VERY tempted to not do a 4WG for some players who barely got any screen time this past episode, but a lot of these will be very short and brief.
 
Sage: Wise to do something
Besides just be on the outs.  Good for Sage to stir something up.

Jawan: Still thinks he's in
The majority, or so it appears.  With a tribe swap coming up, we will never find out.  Thanks, Jeff.  

Sophie: Medevac got her emotional
Sophie was one I noticed was particularly shocked by the news.  

Jason: Jeff making him threat
Jeff keeps pointing out how well Jason is doing at the puzzle portion.  That's not doing Jason any favors.

Matt: Bring in someone else
Whoever is a new tribemate to Matt, Matt needs to bring them into his four.  

Alex: Had to play safe
He had to play his idol, right?  Despite not getting votes from both Sophi and Jeremiah, he would've been kinda silly not to, since he could always find another.  That should be a rule of thumb for future Survivor players: If you have a tribe of 3 and you have an Idol, play it.  

Sophi: Will find new life
The complex content Sophi has gotten leads me to believe she will go fairly far.  Obviously, Alex and Sophi will not be considered threats, as Uli and Hina will be gunning for each other.  

Kristina: Did challenge surprisingly well
I think it's safe to say that Kristina is of a similar build to Cirie, who famously struggled with a water balance beam in Game Changers, so I was pleasantly surprised to see how well Kristina did.

Steven: Social game determines everything 
We know Steven isn't too physically threatening nor weak, which is good.  He can likely strategize.  Him bonding with other players come the tribe swap and merge will determine how far he goes.

MC: Found advantage, good position
To me, MC is the top of the Hina tribe.  She has the beware advantage that seems easy enough to become an idol, and she has connections to the four and Sophie.  She's solid.

Nate: How will age affect?
If not at all, I could see Nate going very far.  If it's a slight issue, it could be the reason he goes.

Shannon: Power position, but vulnerable
Shannon was referred to being in a power position, but I could easily see Savannah casting her aside if she needed to.  I have a feeling that may happen shortly after the merge.

Rizo: Lack of maturity there
It makes me think if Rizo gets to the end, he won't even be 2nd.  I worry about anyone taking him seriously.

Savannah: Must lower threat level
I think her lack of size won't fool many people.  Small can be mighty in the game of Survivor.  

And to our TWO departed players...

Jake: Departure seemed bit off
Like there was still some information we're not getting.  Did his wife communicate to him that he hadn't had their baby, and used this "medevac" as an excuse to go home?  Also, if Jake REALLY wanted to stay in the game, the smart thing would've been to lie and say the snake only brushed up against him, because it appears they did not get it on camera.  But perhaps he was worried for his own safety.  

Jeremiah: Another gay man fifteenth
The last FIVE players to be the fourth boot (or finish in 15th) have ALL been gay men, most of them non-white.  From 45 on, it has been Sean, Bhanu, Kishan, Thomas, and now Jeremiah.  If you're a gay man going to tribal that night, play your idol or shot in the dark!

And our new power rankings... we have a VERY predictable tribe swap next episode, so that'll affect things here a bit.  I'm going to have to go with more of how they're being portrayed rather their current position on their tribes, since I don't know how the tribes will shake out.

14th: Sophie (-1)
13th: Sage (+2)
12th: Kristina (-4)
11th: Jason (+1)
10th: Jawan (+4)
9th: Matt (+2)
8th: Steven (-1)
7th: Nate (-3)
6th: Alex (+4)
5th: MC (+1)
4th: Shannon (-1)
3rd: Rizo (-1)
2nd: Sophi (+7)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rise: Sophi (+7)
Biggest fall: Kristina (-4)

Alex and Sophi take huge jumps as they will no longer be considered threats, and it appears Hina and Uli will be going after each other.  If it was just Alex and Sophie each joining a different tribe (like in Philippines), I would have them much lower, but it appears everyone is dropping their buffs and that is not the case.  Most of Hina is near the bottom, because of the two tribes that have YET to go to tribal STILL, Hina is definitely not getting as much screen time.  

AFTER EPISODE 4 FOUR WORD GAME

Sophie: Right to criticize food
Finally!  Someone stuck their neck out and criticized production for not giving them food that will temporarily ACTUALLY fill their bellies.  I guess this is why Sophie is getting a bad edit.  

Sage: In temporary bad spot
With her and Shannon being the only two original Uli's, Sage could be in trouble.  The merge is likely after the next vote, so she really only has to survive the next vote, IF they lose.

Kristina: Some in depth content
Good to see some in depth, emotional content for Kristina.  I think that means she at least makes the jury.  I don't think she wins because of her poor edit prior to this, but it's something.

Jason: Tribe has to win
Otherwise, he's a goner, right?  At this point, they would not turn on Nate or Jawan, and Sophi has ingratiated herself well with her new tribe.  Fortunately, odds are it ends in a puzzle since the last one didn't, so that gives them good odds with having Jason.

Jawan: Swap helps resolidify bonds?
Jawan was on the outs of Uli, which he even recognized and pointed out.  Now that they're forced to work together to maintain majority, perhaps he will resolidify his bonds with Savannah and Rizo and Nate?  

Steven: Introduction seen at least
We saw Steven introduce himself, interestingly not as a rocket scientist but as a progammer for a space company.  I wonder if that's actually true and it's considered LIKE a rocket scientist or he is trying to lower his threat level.  Sorry, that's all I remember from him this episode.

Nate: Held firm, stayed cool
Despite him and Matt being against each other, which surprised me.  I'd have thought they would've bonded, given them both being on the older side of things.  Nevertheless, Nate held his ground well.  Including at the challenge lifting both Rizo and Savannah up.

Alex: Finally won a challenge!
Congrats to Alex!  And I thought he did fairly well introducing himself to his new tribe.  I think he'll be fine even if they lose the next challenge.

MC: Challenge MVP of season
Just, wow.  I'm very impressed with MC's athleticism.  The way she was able to lift up players on HER shoulders, usually something reserved for men.  

Shannon: Fortune dropped real fast
She went from a majority alliance to the bottom real fast.  Plus, these meditation things she's doing in the morning MIGHT be cause for the rest to vote her out.  

Rizo: Found idol, now what?
What's his gameplan?  Stick with Savannah and Nate and possibly Jawan?  I want to see him intereact with more than them.

Sophi: Played post swap perfectly
We've seen some impressive post-swap games, but Sophi did hers VERY well.  Connected with basically everyone, but the one that stood out to me was her connection to Savannah.  I think that might last a long time....

Savannah: Still out there dominating
I don't know what to say.  She's the winner.  Unless she gets targeted like Rachel did and is unable to save herself.  

And to our departed player...

Matt: Another twist screwed player
Whether's it's a swap, loss of a vote, advantage, there always seems to be at least one player screwed over in the pre-merge.  I think Matt could've at least made jury if not for this, but alas, it wasn't meant to be.

New rankings!  With the tribe swap, some definitely have to move a bit.  Some might stay about the same.  

13th: Jason (-2)
12th: Sage (+1)
11th: Shannon (-7)
10th: Sophie (+4)
9th: Kristina (+3)
8th: Jawan (+2)
7th: Steven (+1)
6th: Nate (+1)
5th: Alex (+1)
4th: MC (+1)

3rd: Sophi (-1)
2nd: Rizo (+1)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rise: Sophie (+4)
Biggest fall: Shannon (-7)

Sophie rises, mostly because she got swapped to a decent position.  If they do a "fake merge" and re-swap the "tribes", my pick is Sophie to be the one screwed over.  Anyway, it was mostly just Shannon falling and everyone rising a spot.  I swapped Sophi and Rizo, mostly because Rizo has an idol, but I'm also questioning Sophi's winning chances slightly.  

AFTER EPISODE 5 FOUR WORD GAME

Sage: Won over her tribe
By telling them about Rizo's advantage and likely idol.  Honestly, it's probably smart since Sage was not in their core four.  She also was right to clock Shannon for being fake.  

Shannon: Playing way too hard
I give Shannon credit, she is working her tribe, but it seems to be too much and with too many people.  I don't think Shannon would've survived had they lost immunity.

Sophie: Only talks about food
Not saying it's her choice, but she only got to talk about chicken this week after talking about the fruit last week.  Sigh.  It must mean we're not supposed to get too close to her.

Kristina: Handed chicken for nothing
She sat out of the challenge because she's the most out-of-shape player on their tribe, and she does nothing to help prepare the chicken to be eaten.  To top it off, she made an asinine comment in her confessional about being scared of birds but wanting to eat the chicken.  Safe to say I don't like Kristina.  

Jawan: Can't get social foothold
What I mean by that is a solid place in this game socially.  I didn't realize Jawan would struggle this much socially, but it was clear at tribal that it's going to be tough sledding for him.  

Steven: Upcoming social play important
There's going to be ANOTHER tribe swap it appears, and a merge soon after.  How Steven plays those rounds will determine his fate in the game.  I could see him fitting in somewhere or I could see him being a target since he is one of the figureheads of old Hina.

Nate: Incredibly smart journey play
To propose leaving one bag, and then deke MC into thinking there was hardly any time left.  I'm surprised we didn't see her catching on to him.  He prevented her from getting an advantage, which he knew he wouldn't find before her.  He's very aware of people's abilities.

Alex: What is his strategy? 
I'm not exactly sure what Alex's strategy is in this game right now.  Has he bonded with those former Hina members?  Sure, kind of.  But who does he want to to go to the end with?  I'm not exactly sure.  It'll be interesting to see if he can make a bond with Nate (who he apparently gets swapped with) and if Sophi will bring him into that group alongside Rizo and Savannah.

MC: Should have gotten advantage
I think Nate and the journey may have worn her down a bit, but that advantage they had out there was MC's for the taking.  She does still have her beware advantage, but she hasn't been able to search for it because she remains one of SIX players to STILL not have gone to ONE tribal council, now coming up on our sixth episode.  Crazy.

Sophi: Struggling but staying alive
She has been to every tribal council.  Crazy.  Meanwhile, six players in this game have not been to one.  Whatever production needs to do to even those kinds of numbers out in the future, they need to do.  I hope after the swap she's not on the one team that loses next week.  

Rizo: Hero spot but failed
Rizo had the hero spot in the challenge with shooting the baskets but failed and was beaten by Alex.  I don't think that will come up in the future, but you never know.  He also bonked Sophi on the head, which, man, poor Sophi.  

Savannah: Center of the show
I feel like Savannah gets so much focus and time each week.  She is going far in this game, no doubt.  She is either the winner or being set up as the final boss.  Time will tell.

And to our departed player...

Jason: No puzzles cost him
The two challenges post-swap both did not end in a puzzle, which cost Jason the game.  Honestly, it's rotten luck when you combine that with the tribe swap that screwed him.  

New power rankings!  How do things shape up now?   Let's see...

12th: Kristina (-3)
11th: Sophie (-1)
10th: Shannon (+1)
9th: Jawan (-1)
8th: Steven (-1)
7th: Sage (+5)
6th: Alex (-1)
5th: MC (-1)
4th: Nate (+2)
3rd: Sophi (0)
2nd: Rizo (0)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rise: Sage (+5)
Biggest fall: Kristina (-3)

My top remains the same, but some notable movement, although not a ton.  Kristina drops for me.  I just can't stand her at this point.  She has zero of the charm of Cirie, I'm sorry.  So until she redeems herself for me, she might stay at the bottom.  Sage jumps up; I like that she told people about Rizo's advantage.  Nate jumps up as well a tiny bit, I think he's smarter then even he lets on.  

AFTER EPISODE 6 FOUR WORD GAME

Kristina: Gets things for nothing
She got the chickens even though she sat out.  She got grilled cheese even though she barely helped.  She got immunity even though she almost cost her tribe by not being able to construct a steady wooden pole.  I swear to God if in the post-merge people take her on a lot of rewards, I'm going to lose it.  

Sophie: Smartly keeping options open
She didn't just stick to Kristina; in fact, it looks like she's willing to turn on her.  Finally saw some strategy from Sophie in this episode, although she still hasn't been to a tribal.  I like that she was willing to work with Nate and Alex.

Jawan: Keeps getting lucky swaps
Jawan got swapped with multiple original Uli's BOTH times they swapped tribes.  He might be the only one that can say he got swapped with two original tribe members both times.  As for this episode, he wasn't going to be the main target for anyone outside of Shannon, but Jawan is definitely going to be a name brought up post-merge.  I can't see Savannah wanting to keep him around for too long.

Steven: Social game saved him
And that's what he needs!  He had made bonds with Savannah and Sage on their previous tribe.  He made a bond in this episode with Jawan.  He was the obvious vote and didn't even get a single one.  He may be better socially than a lot of people think.  Problem is, if they notice, he's a goner.

Sage: From zero to hero
Sage has gone from a semi-annoying likely pre-merge boot to one of the best characters (if not THE best) this season.  Her facial expressions, confessionals, god, so good.  I hope she survives a good chunk of the merge, because she has become one of my favorites.

Alex: Will first connection help?
To Sophi, that is.  Will she try to bring him in to her new group, or will he become a sitting duck at some point?  That will determine his success in this game, I think.  I think Alex is a very likely jury member, just if he's one of the first or last is up in the air.

MC: Challenge prowess her factor
Will other players consider MC a challenge threat and target her?  Possibly.  It would be wise for her to keep her advantage (and likely, idol) a secret.  We could see a situation where she is always the target but keeps saving herself through immunities and idols.

Nate: Working back to group?
The original group he had with Savannah and Rizo (and Shannon, but she's gone).  Will he work back to them?  I think so.  I'm excited to see him navigate the post-merge.  I think he's one of the best strategic minds this season.

Sophi: Finally not at tribal!
And got food!  She seems pretty solidified with Savannah and Rizo, so that's good.  Will she bring in Alex?  I think she should, but also be willing to turn on him when the time comes.

Rizo: Get rid of idol
Since everyone knows, he might as well use it at the first merge tribal council.  He obviously doesn't have to use it on himself.  He could use it to save someone else.  But an idol everyone knows about is not a ton of power.  It is definitely putting a target on his back.

Savannah: Disdain for Jawan hilarious
I caught her making a comment and face when Jawan was talking before the reward, and man, we haven't seen a beef like this in a while.  How effectively/quickly Savannah is able to get Jawan out will determine how much power she has in the game.

And to our departed player...

Shannon: Too insufferable and spiritual
She rubbed people the wrong way, most notably Sage, who put up a great front in not letting Shannon on to the fact she couldn't really stand her.  Shannon had zero chance of winning, but could've made it further with a better swap or winning that immunity.

New power rankings!  Going into the merge, how do things shake up?  These rankings will largely be based on how I think they'll integrate with one another.

11th: Jawan (-2)
10th: Kristina (+2)
9th: Sophie (+2)
8th: Steven (0)
7th: MC (-2)
6th: Alex (0)
5th: Sage (+2)
4th: Nate (0)
3rd: Rizo (-1)
2nd: Sophi (+1)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rises: Kristina and Sage (+2)
Biggest falls: Jawan and MC (-2)

There's not too much movement, but I think there will be after next week's episode.  I think Jawan was saved by Sage, but she either won't or can't come post-merge.  MC will have a decent threat level, and I don't know if she was able to make bonds with Savannah, Rizo, and Sophi.  And I keep flip-flopping Rizo and Sophi, merely because I don't want the same exact top 3 every single week.

AFTER EPISODE SEVERAL FOUR WORD GAME

Jawan: "Bottoms Up" is top
As in, they're at the top now.  Great move by them, I gotta say.  Savannah, Rizo, and Nate did not sus out their story.  Jawan, to me, was the leader of that, having been closest to the Uli three of the Bottoms Up alliance.  Good for him.  

Kristina: Complete joke, no shot
Breaking the hammock, losing the challenge, only wanting food but not having to work for it... yeah Kristina is a joke this season.  She also still has zero shot of winning.  But I unfortunately could see her skirting along like a Mitch last season.  

Sophie: Probably safe without immunity
Given the Bottoms Up Alliance went with the original Hina, including Sophie, who was the original target.  But good on Sophie to not only win immunity, but to get more screentime this past episode.

Steven: Will likely get credit
If he makes it far, he'll likely get credit for "pulling in" Jawan and Sage to the Hina's, which is essentially true, but it was more Jawan and Sage not wanting to work with the Uli's.

MC: Didn't earn winner equity
The way she found the idol (not being able to keep it secret) and playing it for herself when she didn't need to is not going to help MC if she makes it to the end.  

Alex: Surprisingly quiet merge episode
Tied with the fewest confessionals (2), and I believe he went against his former ally in Sophi.  That might create a rift between them.  He wanted to be on the right side of the merge vote, and he was.  

Sage: Playing well, but respected?
I wonder if Sage were to continue on like this and get to the end, if she would garner any votes to win.  I'm not sure.  She is playing better than I was expecting from the first few episodes.

Rizo: Having idol a curse
At least, a publicly known idol.  If you hold onto it, you put a target on your back.  You play it, it gets put back into the game for potentially one of your enemies to find.  It's a lose-lose situation as Rizo illustrated.  Not sure if he did the right thing by announcing he was going to play it then not.  Shows you can't trust everything he says, but that's true of everyone in Survivor.

Sophi: Can't sink with ship
If her alliance is indeed doomed, she can't go down with them.  Better to try to find some in roads with Alex and the others.  But something tells me they aren't doomed.  

Savannah: Villainy might prevent win
Savannah's villainy is being seen by others, notably MC, who I believe shared what Savannah did with others in trying to hinder her idol find.  I no longer think I can say I see Savannah winning.  I think she's like Joe last season, and will either be a finale loser or a final boss.

And to our departed player...

Nate: Ousted by his association
With Savannah and Rizo.  He really did nothing wrong, just was associated with them and he was the one they were sure Rizo wouldn't play an idol for.  At least he made the jury.

New power rankings!  And these rankings ARE going to change.  I believe there has been a big shake up in the game.  I believe I have to move the trio of Rizo, Sophi, and Savannah down, but who moves above them and who stays below?  

10th: Sophie (-1)
9th: Alex (-3)
8th: MC (-1)
7th: Kristina (+3)
6th: Jawan (+5)
5th: Rizo (-2)
4th: Savannah (-3)

3rd: Sophi (-1)
2nd: Sage (+3)
1st: Steven (+7)

Biggest rise: Steven (+7), also Jawan (+5)
Biggest fall: Savannah and Alex (-3)

Told you I'd shake it up.  My new winner pick is STEVEN.  Yes, he got votes tonight, but Yam-Yam also got votes around this point.  He's just gotta make it through unscathed, which I think he will.  I also really wanted a new #1.  I might not keep it this way long at all; we'll just have to see how next week goes.  Sophie remains at the bottom, I definitely could see her being screwed somehow in the game (perhaps Rizo plays his idol and she is idoled out?).  Alex drops due to not having any close ties.  MC drops due to her idol fumble.  Sage rises as well.  She is definitely like the Carolyn Wiger of the season.  Entertaining as hell, but not a ton of winner equity.  

AFTER EPISODE 8 FOUR WORD GAME

Sophie: Nearly ousted, needs alliance
Sophie's lack of good connections in this game almost cost her.  It shouldn't have been an issue to begin with, but Jeff just loves splitting them up because heaven forbid we have more than 5 or 6 people voting.  She also shouldn't have thrown out Jawan's name, which almost cost her as well.  She needs damage control next episode.  

Alex: Still quiet post merge
I mean we hear from him, but it's minimal and almost because we have to.  But it feels like Alex is largely inconsequential post-merge.  What moves is he trying to make?  We don't know.  

Kristina: Hardly has to work
She didn't have to win the challenge in order to enjoy the reward.  She was first out, yet she still got the reward.  DUMB.  She also found the idol which was NOT well-hidden, and because it's post-merge, there is nothing she has to do to "unlock" it.  She just has a free fully-fledged idol.  Kristina may be our finale goat this season.  I thought she might be Cirie coming into this season, but she is way more Cassandra in Fiji.

Jawan: Stayed calm, followed plan
Jawan heard his name thrown out by Sophie, which would make anyone want to go for her.  First off, he kept his cool when he heard it.  Secondly, the vote was leaning more MC, and he went with it rather than go against the group.  Jawan is smarter than I originally thought.  But I don't think he has much winner equity.

Rizo: Amazingly ran the vote
He was on the bottom, with an idol, and he got through the tribal unscathed, without a single vote.  Amazing.  He also got out the one he wanted in MC, who he said had more connections than Sophie.  This was an impressive episode from the man, the myth, the legend, R-I-Z-G-O-D, Rizgod baby!

Savannah: Next vote super critical
Savannah, Sophi, and Rizo are still on the bottom, it might appear.  But they only need two for a majority.  If Savannah uses her extra vote, they only need one to force a tie.  Can they sway Sophie or Alex?  This next vote is super critical to Savannah's game, and will determine if I vault her back to #1 or not.  

Sophi: Quiet, but presence felt
I still feel Sophi has a better shot of winning than her former Kele tribemate, Alex.  Yes, she's on the bottom, but I think if hypothetically Rizo and Savannah were ousted, she would not be the next target.  I expect her to have a bigger impact next episode.  She needs to use her Knowledge is Power before it's too late.  Perhaps she will hear about Kristina's idol (oh please, hear about it!).

Sage: Never the target somehow
I don't know how others perceive Sage, but in a five person group, her name was never brought up again.  I wonder if it's because others don't consider her a threat to win at all.  Or is she playing THAT well?  Unlikely... but you never know.

Steven: Needs an idol, advantage
If Steven skates on by to the end without ever finding anything, does he have a shot at winning?  Eh... maybe?  I was really hoping it would be him finding the idol, not Kristina.  But, if he can convince Kristina to play it on him, that would be just as good.  We shall see.  

And to our departed player...

MC: Orchestrated her own demise
Running off to tell Jawan Sophie was throwing his name out?  Big mistake.  I can't remember what else she did wrong, but she certainly orchestrated her own demise.  She had the numbers, they just had to vote Rizo and keep it quiet (which it looked like they WERE doing), but nope.  Her lack of game knowledge hurt her, as she had only recently gotten into Survivor before coming on the show.

New power rankings!  I think I gotta shake things up again.... right?  Well, here's how they stack up for me:

9th: Sophie (+1)
8th: Alex (+1)
7th: Jawan (-1)
6th: Kristina (+1)
5th: Sage (-3)
4th: Steven (-3)
3rd: Savannah (+1)
2nd: Rizo (+3)
1st: Sophi (+2)

Biggest rise: Rizo (+3)
Biggest fall: Sage and Steven (-3)

Top 9 baby!  A little shuffling with my bottom half, but not much.  Sage and Steven drop, not really through any fault of their own, but I feel like I overreacted a bit last week.  The top 3 is back to being Savannah, Rizo, and Sophi, and for the first time, Sophi as the #1.  Because we know Rizo and Savannah are on Season 50, I really feel they would not immediately bring a winner back.  I could be wrong.  But no winner in the history of Survivor has come back to play the very next season.  Again, I could be wrong.  But for now, Sophi is my #1.  I have my rankings bookended by Sophi(e)s.

AFTER EPISODE 9 FOUR WORD GAME

Sophie: Smart to switch sides
It was the right call.  The rest of the majority didn't seem to want too much to do with Sophie.  Good for her to vote with the other Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo.  However, she can't just ride with them until the end.  She'll have to make a big move that she can stamp her name on.

Jawan: Can we believe him?
He keeps saying he wants to take Rizo out (or at least flush his idol), but he keeps not doing it.  He's had three opportunities now.  It's almost as if we can't believe what Jawan says anymore.  Good for him to get food and get an emotional backstory.

Kristina: Complete different opinion now
I was giving Kristina SO MUCH crap for all the things she's been given.  And when I saw her win the reward again without having to do too much, I actually said out loud, "If she had honor and integrity, she's give her reward to Jawan" and what do you know, she did it!  I have to say I actually like Kristina now.  I still don't want her to win, but I'm ok with her staying til near the end.  

Sage: What's her game plan?
I'm not entirely sure.  I think she still wants Savannah out, but like Jawan, why isn't she doing anything about it?  Their numbers are almost gone now.  I still hope Sage sticks around, but I'm afraid it won't be for much longer.

Steven: He's a sitting duck
Steven is only two people left in the game who didn't vote Alex, the other being Kristina.  My rankings will have to reflect that.  He went from being in an amazing position to now being in a terrible one.  My dude is one of the next to go for sure.

Savannah: Immunity run in her?
She has two, and I could see more.  Perhaps she wins 4 or 5, and they brought her back for 50 because they want challenge beasts on 50.  She's got a lot of the right skills to win the post-merge endurance challenges.  

Rizo: Balls of freaking steel
I don't know how he's done it.  My man has balls of freaking steel.  I would've played the idol multiple rounds ago.  It's definitely going to help his chance of winning at the end, should he get that far.  He wanted MC and Alex out, got them both.  Who's next on Rizo's radar?  Steven?  

Sophi: This season's social butterfly
She got Savannah to tell her about her former occupation as a news reporter.  That's huge.  She hasn't even told Rizo.  Sophi is perhaps the best social player this season.  If she gets to the end, she's got a GREAT shot.  

And to our departed player...

Alex: Played like a politician
He worked both sides too much.  In this game, you can't play like a politician, at least not anymore.  You have to play more like a CEO.  Be ruthless when you need to be and appease your underlings.  Which is why I don't think anyone in politics will win Survivor anytime soon.  It's why Jon Lovett had zero shot of winning.  

New power rankings!  How will things shake up with just 8 left?  Only so much movement can happen at this point.  

8th: Steven (-4)
7th: Sophie (+2)
6th: Sage (-1)
5th: Jawan (+2)
4th: Kristina (+2)
3rd: Rizo (-1)
2nd: Savannah (+1)
1st: Sophi (0)

Biggest rise: Sophie, Jawan and Kristina (+2)
Biggest fall: Steven (-4)

Steven falls for me.  He's got few allies left, and he was left out of the vote.  The bottoms up alliance has lost some momentum, and I think one of them is gone next episode.  My pick is Steven.  Sophie joined up with the power 3 in Rizo, Savannah, and Sophi, but she's playing with fire, and everyone still does not seem to like her, and they only took her in because they needed the numbers.  Sage falls due to the quiet episode.  Kristina is often ranked low by a lot of people due to her being so quiet pre-merge (two episodes in a row of zero confessionals), but I don't think that means she's going anytime soon.  I think she's a Lauren or Heather type boot around 4th or 5th.  Also, I have to add... after the jury has started with three African-American people, I highly doubt Jawan or Kristina is next.  They might also be safe for the following vote as well.

Sophi retains the top spot for now, but I was tempted to have Savannah take her place.  I kept Sophi there because I liked how Savannah confided in her.  Plus, Savannah keeps getting referred to as a mean girl and a threat.  Right now, I see a final three of Rizo, Savannah, and Sophi, with Sophi winning.  

AFTER EPISODE 10 FOUR WORD GAME
(I am doing this Friday after the episode, so not the morning after, so my memory may be a bit spotty from the episode).

Steven: Man on the outs
He really is.  Kristina is basically his only ally (I guess Sage a bit too), and he hasn't been on the right side of the votes.  It's only a matter of time.

Sophie: Revealed flippers too quickly
Or perhaps she shouldn't have revealed them at all.  The main trio this season was under the assumption Jawan and Sage were back with them, only for Sophie to tell them they weren't.  According to the edit, this was done almost right away, when she really should've waited or not said anything to hold the power.

Sage: Hell... a woman scorned
Obviously, can't fit the whole phrase but "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned" is the full phrase, and that is Sage now.  She lost one of her closest allies and still cannot get Savannah out.  She likely isn't voting that way at the end.

Kristina: Has pity, not agency
Kristina showed she is breaking down mentally, and the rest of the cast certainly has pity on her.  But she has zero game agency, and even if she gets to the end, her pity will not (and honestly, should not) be enough to garner her any votes.

Rizo: Multi-faceted idol bluff
Not only did he gauge whether the rest of the cast was upset at him potentially playing an idol (like Rachel did with her SitD in 47), but he "played" an Idol, which might lead some to believe he had a fake idol all along.  Definitely something for his resumé.

Savannah: Should earn some respect
From the jury, should she get to the end.  I know, I'm getting ahead of myself, but she keeps surviving these votes despite being the #1 target and threat.  That has to mean something, right?  

Sophi: That KIP collecting dust
KIP being the Knowledge is Power, which Sophi still has.  She even got wind of the rumor of Kristina's idol and still didn't use it.  She is going along with her trio, not doing anything to stand out.  She has to do something or she won't have a shot at the end.

And to our departed player...

Jawan: Some bad jury optics
First four players of 49's jury, all black.  Yikes.  The cast of 42 would be having a coronary over this.  But about Jawan, he didn't build enough of a core, and when you flip, you gotta have more than 1 or 2 trusted allies.  He didn't.  

New power rankings!  We're getting down to the wire, just several left!  If the power trio has Sophie, they could now coast to the final 4 unscathed.  Here's how I rank them: 

7th: Steven (+1)
6th: Sage (0)
5th: Kristina (-1)
4th: Sophie: (+3)
3rd: Sophi (-2)
2nd: Savannah (0)
1st: Rizo (+2)

Biggest rise: Sophie (+3)
Biggest fall: Sophi (-2)

The man, the myth, the legend, R-I-Z-G-O-D Rizgod, baby!  Sorry, I had to.  He is my new #1, and I think people might respect his game at the end.  I know I've said I doubt 49's winner returned for 50. because no player in the history of Survivor has ever returned the next season after winning, but there's a first for everything.  Plus, Russell Hantz thought he had won Samoa and returned right away.  It takes a special level of ego to be able to do that (to say they think they can be the first back-to-back champ), and I think Rizo has it.  Savannah's still up there.  Sophi falls because I can't see her winning right at this moment.  Sophie takes the biggest jump, despite me criticizing her move of telling the main trio about the flippers.  I think she's doing all right.  But I think they might snipe her before too long.  Steven, Sage, and Kristina, are clearly on the bottom now, hence them being my bottom 3.  Kristina is at the top of them as the least threatening player.

AFTER EPISODE 11 FOUR WORD GAME

Steven: Saved himself one round
Now what, though?  He earned a block a vote, which apparently no one knows about, and they suspect is a steal a vote.  If he doesn't use it correctly next tribal, he's got 0 chance of winning.

Sage: Needs coalition against Savannah
She got her revenge on Sophie.  Now, can she get Savannah out, finally?  However, even if Savannah doesn't win immunity, Rizo could play his idol on her.  We could see a very interesting Final 6 tribal...

Kristina: Voted correctly, now what?
Kristina finally voted correctly, but now she's in a tough spot.  Can she get Sophi, her, Sage, and Steven to work together to target one of the other two?  And target the one who doesn't get an idol played for them?  Or convince Rizo again not to play it?  It's gonna be tough...

Sophi: Her game is teetering
Right on the edge between a finale goat and the winner.  She makes a big move against Savannah/Rizo and pulls it off, she is all of a sudden in the driver's seat to win.  She sits on her hands like she has been, she might as well start accepting third place.  Her Knowledge is Power is likely what will determine it.  She has to play it to get Rizo's idol and turn on them.  She cannot try to use it on Steven or just not use it.

Savannah: Winning game not visible
She's a huge target and threat, and even if she gets to the end, she's been called a mean girl and hasn't made a ton of close friends outside of Rizo and Sophi, who are both still in the game.  I know all the stuff about Season 50, and how she was put on a tribe with no winners (making people think she wins this season), but I reiterate that no player has ever won and then played the very next season.  I think Savannah just misses it.

Rizo: Game still idol dependent
If he allows Sophi to steal it, that will really hurt his chances.  If he gives it to Savannah, who then plays it, that would be huge.  Sitting on an idol is fine when you and your closest allies are fine.  But we're getting to the point where he's got to do something with it, already.  Yes, being able to sit on it the entire game and not have to play it is an argument he could make at the Final Tribal Council, but it's more impressive if he plays it and plays it correctly.

And to our departed player...

Sophie: Needed an idol, awareness
Sophie not only needed an idol, but awareness to know she was the target, which she didn't.  Also, she tried playing the middle too much, which, as we've seen with Alex and Jawan, the other players don't like too much.  

New power rankings!  Second to last of the season.  How will the final six shape up?  

6. Steven (+1)
5. Savannah (-3)
4. Kristina (+1)
3. Sage (+3)
2. Rizo (-1)
1. Sophi (+2)

Biggest rise: Sage (+3), also Sophi (+2)
Biggest fall: Savannah (-3)

I'm taking a huge swing as we head into the final six.  Steven is still at the bottom for me, naturally.  Savannah, though, is now 2nd from the bottom.  The one who I had ranked first for the first half+ of the season.  She's got a huge target, and even if Rizo saves her with an idol, she still would be vulnerable the next vote.  Sage rises a bit, as I think she could make a compelling case in front of the jury.  And Sophi (for now) snags the top spot, despite still not doing much.  It's more me expecting her to play her Knowledge is Power correctly and/or turn on Savannah and Rizo and take over the game.  I do believe she's gotten a good underdog Kenzie-style edit.  Next week will obviously determine if I keep Sophie their for my final ranking or move someone else up.  

AFTER EPISODE 12 FOUR WORD GAME

Savannah: May win by default
I'm starting to get the feeling that we may have a winner the jury isn't fully behind, but they have to pick someone.  If Savannah is there against basically anyone, they likely vote for her by default, being the only person there they think deserves to win.  

Kristina: Not playing to win

Who is her closest ally in this game?  It wasn't Steven, she just voted him out.  If Kristina gets dragged to the end, she certainly is not winning.  She may get a sympathy vote or two due to her story, but I'm hoping the jury doesn't fall for it and give her multiple votes, should she get there.

Sage: Had to eliminate someone 
There are, in most people's eyes, three people going into the Final 6 vote who had more win equity than Sage: Savannah, Rizo, and Steven.  Savannah had immunity.  Sage was under the belief Rizo was playing his idol.  So that left Steven as her natural target, despite them being in the "Bottoms Up" alliance together.  So much for that trio.  

Rizo: Flashiness not impressing jury
I've noticed Rizo's non-idol plays are not impressing the jury.  I think the jury is under the belief Savannah runs things in their group, so Rizo is going to have to make a move against Savannah in order to win, it appears.  If he plays his idol correctly and negates a majority vote at Final 5, that would be a huge start.  But if he coasts to the end against Savannah without a savvy idol play, he is not winning.

Sophi: Blunder not that bad
Many think Sophi should have used the KiP to steal Rizo's idol.  But to take his idol and not vote him out would have been risky and foolish, because Sophi then very likely goes at 5 (and she loses favor with both Rizo and Savannah).  The target was already Steven.  Her main blunder was telling Rizo and Savannah about her KiP.  She should've told Steven, Kristina, and Sage and had them target Rizo since he would have been vulnerable.  In order to win Survivor, you gotta make moves like that.  She didn't.

And to our departed player...

Steven: Nice, but no allies
Apparently, since Sage and Kristina were so willing to turn on him.  But Savannah winning Final 6 immunity really sunk his ship.  It was cool to see him shoot down Sophi's attempt to steal his advantage.  And his block a vote had zero effect on the outcome.  When's the last time an advantage (not an idol) had a legitimate effect on the game?  It feels like every one of them fail and fall flat or have no effect.

Final power rankings.... are coming up!  But first, as I do before every finale, I'm going to rank the remaining players on how much I think the jury likes them.  I will give 5 points for them being 1st with a juror, 4 for 2nd, and so on all the way to 1 point for 5th.  Also, I want to preface that this is just how I see the jury's perception of each player currently.  Obviously, if someone makes a great speech at FTC they could jump ahead in someone's rankings.

Nate: Savannah, Rizo, Kristina, Sage, Sophi
MC: Kristina, Sage, Sophi, Savannah, Rizo
Alex: Rizo, Sophi, Savannah, Kristina, Sage
Jawan: Sage, Savannah, Rizo, Sophi, Kristina
Sophie: Savannah, Sophi, Rizo, Kristina, Sage
Steven: Savannah, Rizo, Kristina, Sage, Sophi

The point totals would then be:
Savannah: 24
Rizo: 20
Kristina: 16
Sage: 15
Sophi: 15

Fairly close after Savannah.  Now let's rank what each of the final 5 thinks of the other players in the Final 5, and use 4 for 1st, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 point for 4th:

Savannah: Rizo, Sophi, Sage, Kristina
Rizo: Savannah, Sophi, Sage, Kristina
Kristina: Savannah, Sage, Sophi, Rizo
Sage: Savannah, Rizo, Sophi, Kristina
Sophi: Savannah, Rizo, Sage, Kristina

Those points when added to the above points puts each of them at:

Savannah: 40
Rizo: 31
Sophi: 26
Sage: 24
Kristina: 20

Hmm... interesting.  Well, if Savannah gets to the end, she likely wins it.  Take that how you will, but I also had Joe squeaking out a win over Kyle last season.  Now, my final rankings of the season, are:

5. Kristina (-1)
4. Sage (-1)
3. Sophi (-2)
2. Rizo (0)
1. Savannah (+4)

Last week, I definitely was counting on Savannah not winning immunity.  It would've been interesting to see how the vote would've gone and if Rizo would've used his idol on her had she not won.  But to me, Savannah is the frontrunner, with Rizo having the best chance if she is not there.  I honestly could see Kristina getting a few votes and shocking us.  The jury is predominantly black, and if she manages to get her story out about her mom (again), she could earn some sympathy.  But let's hope the jurors vote with the heads and not their hearts.  

AFTER FINALE FOUR WORD GAME

Kristina: Firemaking ability became downfall
Crazy how now in Survivor, if you are too good at firemaking, that can be a reason you are targeted and voted out.  Kristina didn't have a shot at winning, but Savannah knew that could've meant she was gone at 4.  Kristina obviously needed more on her resumé than being able to make fire.  

Rizgod: Two huge glaring weaknesses
That cost him the game.  One, is his challenge and puzzle ability.  Dude could not win an immunity to save his life.  Literally.  He couldn't even put the puzzle together for the track for the ball to go down.  And he was surprisingly bad at making fires.  Seems strange a Survivor superfan and someone who thinks it's the best show ever would be so bad at those parts of the game.

Sage: Too emotional to win
One might say.  Now I'm not saying she cries too much, but she played with her heart more than her head, which is not how you win Survivor.  Case in point when she targeted Sophie for turning on her and Jawan rather than getting out the bigger threat in Savannah.

Sophi: Amazing FTC, not enough
Sophi had an amazing Final Tribal Council, but it was not enough to win.  Whether it was her just going with the flow for most of the votes or incorrectly playing her Knowledge is Power, she just hadn't done enough going into FTC to win.

Savannah: Another dominant female winner
What can I say?  She won when she needed to like Rachel, and she got two people to be her ride or dies like Dee.  She dominated challenges like Kim.  I'm not sure where most people are going to rank her game in the end, but she's likely top half, if barely.  

Well, that is it for Season 49!  All in all, not a bad season.  I wish we could've seen a bit more competitive play from those on the jury, but that's why they ended up on the jury.  Next up, Season 50: In the Hands of the Fans.  Am I going to do a Four Word Game for each player after each week?  Uh... maybe?  It'll be tough to keep up with, but I think I'll give it my best shot.  See you then!