We have a new season of Survivor, the most anticipated since Winners at War, and with that, I have to do a new Four Word Game. If you're new, it's where I (in the past) would talk about a player's game in four words, such as "Needs to find idol". I would elaborate on it, however, in case the four words were not clear enough.
For 50, I decided to only do Four Word Games for each tribe rather than each player. It would be a lot to do it for each player each week. I will do two word games for each tribe, and I'll try to mention each player at least once. I will also continue to do four word games for each player who leaves the game. And, I will go back to going over each player once we get to the merge episode, even if we merge at 15 players or so.
And, after this, I will indeed rank all remaining players, even when there are 20+ left in the game. So, without further ado...
AFTER EPISODE ONE FOUR WORD GAME
Cila: Nerd alliance is amazing / Lines not fully clear
The Cila tribe, the one we saw go to Tribal Council, had some interesting groupings. First off, was what I'm calling the "nerd alliance" of Christian, Devens, and Emily. It was too perfect. Plus, seeing Christian and Devens fawn over each other was TV gold. I live for that bromance. But other than that, the alliance lines on this tribe are not fully clear, since the Jenna vote off was unanimous. It seemed like potentially Joe and Savannah were with her, but it appears they decided not to go down sinking with her. So to me, we have the nerd alliance, Joe and Savanah, and Ozzy and Cirie. Which group will be targeted next? Also, I wanted to throw out there, there were two subtle hints to Ozzy possibly hurting his back during the supplies challenge, so that's something to keep an eye on.
Kalo: Cohesion not clear yet / Girls group in trouble
We didn't see too much cohesion in this tribe, with the most notable grouping being the girls alliance, which also happens to be the three minorities on the tribe in Kamilla, Dee, and Tiff. If they're too tight, they could be in huge trouble. We saw Coach bond with Jonathan and Chrissy, Mike bond with the girls, so it'll be interesting to see how the groups shake out once they go to tribal, because with how many boots we need to get through, they are definitely going to tribal council. If the girls can bring in Mike and maybe Charlie, they can run this tribe.
Vatu: Rotten luck for most / Great together, not individually
Vatu is the most interesting tribe to me. Somehow, the five-person alliance of Colby, Steph, Kyle, Q, and Genevieve went from having five votes to two votes in the span of one episode--without EVER having gone to tribal council. Crazy! That's just rotten luck. Colby and Q lost votes, and Kyle got medevaced. Colby will have to bring in Rizo, but their first tribal should be interesting. They seem to be doing very well at the tribe challenges, but individually, they are terrible, with Q and Colby each losing their respective "journeys".
And to our departed players...
Jenna: Too hard too fast
Jenna played too hard too fast, throwing out Cirie's name before they had even competed in an immunity challenge. She should've slow played her game, built bonds with other people than Cirie, and Cirie is a possible first boot. It's a shame the Borneo representative is gone first, but someone had to be.
Kyle: Was positioned so well
It's a shame for Kyle. A lot of fans pegged the winners as early boots, but Kyle was positioned so well on his tribe and did tremendously at the start. I didn't see too much of a sentiment to get winners out, so Kyle was possibly going to be golden. It's a shame what happened to his Achilles. Let's hope he gets a third shot a few years from now.
And now my rankings! So, I didn't officially rank all 24 players before the season started, so I won't have any "movement" from them. But I will say some players have already made jumps for me while others have fallen.
22. Q
21. Rizo
20. Savannah
19. Angelina
18. Chrissy
17. Mike
16. Jonathan
15. Ozzy
14. Coach
13. Stephenie
12. Dee
11. Cirie
10. Charlie
9. Colby
8. Kamilla
7. Tiffany
6. Aubry
5. Joe
4. Devens
3. Emily
2. Christian
1. Genevieve
"What about Genevieve?!" I started with Aubry was my #1, but Genevieve is now my new #1. It worries me she already lost a close ally in Kyle, but I bet she will recover. The nerd alliance makes up the rest of my Top 4. Aubry falls to 6 for me. I think she had a pretty bad premiere episode. Ozzy and Coach aren't too high--I worry about them both physically. There's Ozzy's back, and there was a snippet in the preview for Episode 2 showing Coach struggling.
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Survivor 50 FOUR WORD GAME
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Survivor 50 Preview and Predictions!
Tier one will be winner contenders. These are the players I expect to vie for the 50 crown. I will be fairly surprised if the winner is not in this tier.
Tier two will be somewhat long-shot winner contenders. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the winner came from this tier, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it, either. There is typically one thing with each player in this tier that will hold them back from winning.
Tier three will be the actual longshots. These players are very likely not winning, but if crazy things happened and they played well, you never know.
Tier four will be the no shots. I would bet money on these players not winning 50. It's not necessarily a zero percent shot (as I'd put Gabler here at the start of 43), but 9 times out of 10, these players stand no shot.
I'm going to go alphabetically, quick thought about each player, and then declare their tier. I'll do my best to divide the tiers evenly, but it will likely not be perfectly even with six in each. At the end, I'll pick my true winner pick from tier one.
I will also go back to this after each week of Survivor with a quick word about my prediction and if they were in the correct tier, with that text being in blue.
Angelina Keely
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
I expect Angelina to try to be taken more seriously in an effort to have a chance at winning. Unfortunately for her, I don't see that being enough, and I think a serious Angelina will rub people the wrong way. She's not completely out of it, but I would be surprised.
Tier THREE
Aubry Bracco
Survivor Kaoh Rong (32), Game Changers (34), and Edge of Extinction (38)
I expect Aubry to improve upon her EoE and GC performances. She has set herself up fairly well by lowering her threat level coming into this season. For that, she is in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Charlie Davis
Survivor 46
The big question will be if Charlie will be able to hide behind the perceived target on him due to him almost winning. I think he might be able to. He's a smart dude. And for that, he's in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Chrissy Hofbeck
Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (35)
Chrissy is coming in as the screwed over queen, being the one that had to deal with the surprise forced firemaking. I think she may fly under the radar and I do think she has a shot. She certainly can make a case at the end this time, given her double mastectomy/cancer scare. But can she warm up to people enough to earn the W?
Tier TWO
Christian Hubicki
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Christian is coming into the game as one of the most likable people. It should be enough for him to avoid being an early merge boot, but he may be one of the larger targets come post-merge. We shall see. I still kinda like his chances. He's almost a lock to win if he makes the end, since he just had a baby and could whip that nugget of information out at the final tribal.
Tier ONE
Cirie Fields
Survivor Panama: Exile Island (12), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), Heroes vs. Villains (20), Game Changers (34)
Can she finally do it? Cirie has always left the game a different way, whether it's Advantage-geddon, idoled out, losing in fire, or being the sole vote at final 3. Cirie in her four times playing has yet to be voted out by a simple plurality vote. She's definitely a front-runner for me, but can she do it?
Tier ONE
Coach Wade
Survivor Tocantins (18), Heroes vs. Villains (20), South Pacific (23)
Coach is coming into 50 as a more mature, subdued player, and I think that bodes well for his chances. I think he has some of the best odds for any male, and if he can fit in and not break promises and own his game at the end, he has a shot.
Tier TWO
Colby Donaldson
Survivor: The Australian Outback (2), All-Stars (8), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
Colby is also coming into the game with a new perspective and strategy. I don't know how well he will handle all the idols and advantages, but I do believe people are not going to want to vote him out easily. I just worry about his ability to handle the modern game.
Tier THREE
Dee Valladares
Survivor 45
Dee is not only coming into 50 as a winner, but arguably the strongest known winner. She will have a lot of work to do to get further than the early merge portion of the game. But if anyone can pull it off, it's Dee. Surprisingly, she's not in my bottom tier, but she can't get hire than Tier three due to her winner status.
Tier THREE
Emily Flippen
Survivor 45
Emily will likely have a low threat level, which should work in her favor. But could she win at the end in front of a jury? I'm on the fence with that one. She's definitely going to be a dark horse winner pick for many.
Tier TWO
Genevieve Mushaluk
Survivor 47
Genevieve will have to work hard to build relationships and win people over since she has very few connections coming into 50. That may work for or against her. Time will tell. I really think Genevieve has great potential as a player, as she gives off Kim Spradlin vibes.
Tier ONE
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Survivor Borneo (1) and All-Stars (8)
Jenna is setting the record for the longest gap (42!) between seasons. But she seems like she'll be ok adjusting to the modern game. She was one of the surprising players who adjusted to the game at the time in All-Stars, so she shows great adaptability. But I do feel like it's been too long and she still has that known distinction of being annoying to other players.
Tier THREE
Finish: 24th / All Jenna had to do was target Cirie... AFTER the challenge. But she just couldn't wait. I think she overestimated how fast the modern game moves. It moves fast, but not in the first few days. I was wrong about her adjusting to the modern game, and she played like a Tier four player.
Joe Hunter
Survivor 48
On one hand, Joe doesn't have a big strategic or social threat level, but on the other hand, it doesn't seem like he's willing to adjust his game from 48 in which he was the final tribal council goat. I think he'll have a good shot of being in the mix come post-merge, but then he's got to make a move and then showcase it at the end.
Tier TWO
Jonathan Young
Survivor 42
Jonathan is known for one thing, and if he cannot make himself known for something else, he has zero shot of winning 50. He can beast challenges all he wants, but in order to win, he will have to make friends, strategize, and make a good strategic move or two. I'm not sure he's capable, ESPECIALLY against these returning players.
Tier FOUR
Kamilla Karthigesu
Survivor 48
Kamilla could very well fly under the radar, but if Kyle makes the merge with her, she's screwed. She has to hope he's gone pre-merge. I don't think anyone will believe she and Kyle wouldn't work together again. But if he is gone, she could fly under the radar. The question is if she can do enough to win without him.
Tier TWO
Kyle Fraser
Survivor 48
Why? Why is he back? I mean I like Kyle and all, but the last season everyone saw was his winning one. He's got zero chance. He may make that case in order to keep him around, but no one is going to feel guilty about voting him out.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 23rd / I definitely didn't have Kyle's chances very high, but he instantly formed a majority on his tribe, and was positioned quite well on a tribe that was doing well in tribal challenges. Unfortunately for him, his achilles took him out. So I did have him in the right tier, technically, but only because of his injury, which I knew nothing about going in.
Mike White
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Mike is another person I am wondering why they are here. Mike is a decent player and a great storyteller, but he's yet another with zero chance of winning. I'll at least enjoy his quips while he's on.
Tier FOUR
Ozzy Lusth
Survivor Cook Islands (13), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), South Pacific (23), Game Changers (34)
I can't imagine a scenario where Ozzy wins. I mean... can he? He certainly can survive a pre-merge. But after that... he might as well just cross his fingers. I'm interested to see how he handles a modern game. I guess you never know. He was one vote away in Cook Islands as a 24-year-old.
Tier THREE
Q Burdette
Survivor 46
Q is too crazy to win Survivor. He just is. He's 95% character and 5% player. He's the new Coach. I want to see some Q antics, but I don't think I'll see them for very long.
Tier FOUR
Rick Devens
Survivor: Edge of Extinction (38)
I go back and forth on Devens. On one hand, he's likable and would easily win over a jury AND there are some likable shields for him (Christian, Cirie, etc.). On the other, he was an early boot that had to return via the Edge and still couldn't get to the end. Apparently, he's practiced fire, but hopefully, he's practiced lowering his threat level, too.
Tier TWO
Rizo Velovic
Survivor 49
Rizo is the big unknown to the other players this season (outside of Savannah), so his chances take an immediate blow. Coach compared him to Russell Hantz, who steamrolled everyone else in HvV because they didn't know his game, either. Rizo's get a HUGE uphill battle.
Tier FOUR
Savannah Louie
Survivor 49
Apparently, everyone will know Savannah won 49, but they won't know all the details, so Savannah is another huge threat and target early. Given her sometimes brash personality... that cannot bode well for her.
Tier FOUR
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Survivor Palau (10), Guatemala (11), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
First off, ICK. If you know, you know. Secondly, Steph has not shown any ability that she knows how to play a modern reality TV game. Just watch her performances in Snakes in the Grass or The Traitors. If I'm ranking these players 1-24 on their chances, she's 23rd at best.
Tier FOUR
Tiffany Nicole Ervin
Survivor 46
I would wager Tiff is coming into the game with perhaps the lowest threat level. That typically is a good thing in a returning player season, but if the big threats get together and target the smaller threats, she is toast. But I don't see that happening. I like Tiff's chances.
Tier ONE
Well, that is everyone! Let's see how the tiers shake out
TIER ONE
Aubry
Charlie
Christian
Cirie
Genevieve
Tiffany
TIER TWO
Chrissy
Coach
Emily
Joe
Kamilla
Rick
TIER THREE
Angelina
Colby
Dee
Jenna
Ozzy
TIER FOUR
Jonathan
Kyle
Mike
Q
Rizo
Savannah
Stephenie
All right, now with that, I'm going to reveal my official winner pick for 50. It's obviously someone in Tier One.
And that is...
AUBRY! She has lowered her threat level tremendously coming into 50, and if she can avoid "having a dialogue" with everyone, she's got a really good chance.
I will likely continue my Four Word Game for 50, but to do it for 24 players the first week, 22 the second, and so on will be very tough. I'll figure something out.
Friday, February 13, 2026
Feelings after a Second Super Bowl Title for the Seahawks
I honestly believe that this defense had a better year than the 2013 Seahawks did. They were dominant against the run, and outside of Puka Nacua, no star players had a good game against the Hawks this past year. The 2013 Hawks were hard-hitting and forced turnovers, while this defense just doesn't allow yards or points. I think the latter is overall better, because they didn't have to rely on turnovers to do well.
I'm just mostly stoked we have a competitive team with likable players. Sam Darnold, our quarterback, is one of the most likable quarterbacks in the league after what he has gone through. Geno Smith had a similar arc and story, but he didn't exude likability. We know that if we build a consistent winner here, Sam will do what it takes to agree to a contract extension when the time comes, rather than demand a high amount that would hurt the team to give out.
What's crazy about this #1 defense is that there aren't really any huge stars on it. Sure, there are Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, and Ernest Jones, all of whom have gotten a Pro Bowl nod, at least second-team All-Pro, or both. But they aren't the marketable defensive stars you see on other teams like TJ Watt, Maxx Crosby, Micah Parsons, Sauce Gardner, or Myles Garrett. They're just a bunch of dudes. It's funny that the best defense in the NFL only had one first-team All-Pro in Williams. It shows the depth of this defense and how well-rounded they are. Some defenses are poor against the pass, run, or both. This team is poor against NOTHING. There is not one situation or type of offense that they are weak against. They can play heavy or light, whatever the situation calls for.
I fully expect this team to continue to build, plug in holes when guys leave or retire, and continue to compete each and every year. And if, worst-case scenario, they have a really bad year, general manager and team president John Schneider has shown he can build a team out given a few top picks, and isn't afraid to dish away a star player to help build a new team.
It's crazy how the trades in recent years were mocked and lauded, only for them to work out swimmingly. First, of course, was the Russell Wilson trade, which netted the Hawks multiple firsts and helped them land their stud left tackle in Charles Cross and a stud corner in Devon Witherspoon. Then, just this past off-season, the trades of DK Metcalf and Geno Smith that netted the Hawks a second and third round pick. The second round pick would eventually (after a trade with Tennessee) net them stud safety Nick Emmanwori, who was a vital contributor on the Super Bowl team. The third round pick netted Jalen Milroe, who is a project QB, but I guarantee the Hawks are not going to just let him walk in a year or two.
Do we have a potential dynasty? Possibly. The key will be if they can establish an identity on offense, and either get an offensive coordinator who will stick around, or establish an identity well enough so that it doesn't particularly matter who the OC is, as long as they stick to the script. I think we're going to see a very competitive team from the Seahawks for the next several years, and I would not be surprised in the slightest if we saw another Super Bowl appearance or win. I think best-case scenario we have a borderline dynasty, one that we could argue is a dynasty or not, similar to the Legion of Boom years in the 2010s.
One thing that is potentially looming is the sale of the team. Rumors have started sprouting about the team possibly going for sale. If you have a good ownership situation, you do not want your team sold, but unfortunately, it will have to happen at some point, due to Paul Allen's passing and his sister Jodi serving as the temporary chairperson. If the Hawks can get a good owner or a good ownership group, we should be ok. I worry that the Hawks could go into someone's hands, like Jeff Bezos, who would only want to use the Hawks to further line his pockets and not be emotionally invested in the team. I'll likely most a post about my thoughts when that happens, so I'll worry about that when the time comes.
Ownership aside, I'm excited for the future. Mike Macdonald will likely be our coach for a long time, and we know he's a good one. And he seems like the kind of guy who isn't set in his ways, and is willing to evolve and change as the NFL game evolves and changes. That's not something I could say about his predecessor. And Sam Darnold, our QB, is already one of the top QB's in team history after just one year, so hopefully, he will grow and evolve as well and be a Seahawk for a long time, too.
Monday, February 9, 2026
2026 New NFL Head Coach Hire Grades
I did this two years ago, when the Seahawks were in the market for a head coach for the first time in 14 years, so I thought I'd do it again with so many openings this off-season. I'll go in order of date hired, and grade each from F to A+. I just went back and re-graded the hirings from two years ago. Some, like Macdonald and Morris, I was spot on about. Others, like Canales and Callahan, I was very wrong about. So it'll be interesting to see what I get right or wrong a few years from now.
Giants hire John Harbaugh: B+
It's funny, I gave his brother's team an "A" for hiring him two years ago. I just feel that in this situation, success is not guaranteed. Harbaugh was treading water in Baltimore, and his players lost faith in him. Why should we think he can turn around a struggling Giants organization? Sure, he'll be better than Daboll as a head coach overall, but New York can be a nasty sports city, and any struggles will be harped on early. But, what else is New York going to do? This is their best bet.
Falcons hire Kevin Stefanski: B
Stefanski is a solid coach. He made the most of what he was given in Cleveland. Unfortunately for him, he goes from one mess of a QB room to another. Can he get the most out of Michael Penix? We know he'll be able to get good seasons out of Bijan, Pitts, and Drake London. Just need to have a solid QB season, and of course, improve the defense. The NFC South is potentially wide open, so it's anyone's for the taking.
Dolphins hire Jeff Hafley: D+
I feel like D+ might even be too nice. Hafley is an uninspiring choice, and it's almost guaranteed that the Dolphins' offense is going to struggle in 2026, whoever the QB is. They might have an above-average defense, but try telling that to the Jets. I will be very surprised if Hafley lasts more than three seasons, if two. He may keep them fairly competitive, but with the Patriots having returned to being competitive, the Bills having Josh Allen and a good roster, and the Jets potentially on their way up, the Fins could be in big trouble the next few years.
Titans hire Robert Saleh: C-
I'll give the Titans this: some defensive coaches do well on a second or third stint. Here are a list of defensive-minded coaches who didn't have success until their second or third team: Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, and to some extent, Mike Vrabel. Is Saleh one of those guys, though? I'd have to say probably not. Saleh already struggled in New York, and now he is tasked with turning around a bottom-feeder in Tennessee. How is Cam Ward expected to succeed? He'll need a great OC to help him, and even if they get one, he may get snatched away in a year or two to become a head coach. Really needed an offensive coach here.
Ravens hire Jesse Minter: B-
I guess this shows the Ravens wish they had kept Macdonald and promoted from within, but too late for that. I'm not entirely sold on Minter being a head coach, because not every up-and-coming coordinator has success; see Saleh, Mike McDaniel, and Aaron Glenn to name a few. But Minter's going to a stable, well-run organization with good ownership. I could see this going either way, but considering the Ravens are well-run enough to have only had three head coaches in 30 seasons, I'd say it'll likely work out.
Steelers hire Mike McCarthy: D-
Feels weird to give an extremely stable organization like the Steelers a "D-", but they deserve it for this hire. On one hand, I am happy for McCarthy, who will be able to coach the team he grew up rooting for. On the other hand, there is an almost zero chance that this ends in something other than disappointment. McCarthy won a Super Bowl in Green Bay with a stud, talented QB and a young team around him. McCarthy benefited from having a great team built by their GM. Ever since, he's been unable to get a team back to a Super Bowl. He will almost undoubtedly be the shortest tenured Steelers head coach ever, and not just because he's starting older than the other coaches were when they left. It's because he's this generation's Jeff Fisher, cashing in on one good year for an entire career. The worst part of this all is that there was no one else wanting to hire him, and there was zero hurry to make this move, yet they hurried to make it. They avoid an "F" because McCarthy, like his predecessor before him, will be able to keep the Steelers competitive, but he will also keep them from winning any trophies.
Bills hire Joe Brady: D+
Let me ask this. When is the last time a team promoted from within, and it worked wonders? I can't think of one. This does not feel like a step forward for the Bills. With the Patriots' resurgence, they needed a coach to offset Mike Vrabel, and they did not get it. Now, they'll likely compete for wild cards on Josh Allen's talent alone. Way to go. This grade is a D+ and not any lower because there is a bit of upside to hiring a younger, offensive mind, as we have seen in recent years. But man, I will be shocked if Joe Brady ever leads them to a Super Bowl. He may not even lead them to a playoff win.
Browns hire Todd Monken: C-
I don't absolutely hate this hire, but Monken was marginal at best as an offensive coordinator, despite having Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Also, a first-time head coach at 60? Basically unheard of these days. There's a chance he can make them slightly competitive, but this is a very uninspiring and unsexy hire. I do like that he comes from a stable organization, ironically, the one that used to be the Browns. But how is he an improvement over Kevin Stefanski? It feels like a downgrade. Monken has more experience, but I don't think there are many fans that consider him a brighter offensive mind. Perhaps he'll be better at handling the chaos in Cleveland.
Cardinals hire Mike LaFleur: C
I'm giving this one a 50/50 shot of working, so a C is the right grade. On one hand, LaFleur could not get a struggling Jets offense to function. On the other hand, it WAS the Jets, and he made the Rams offense look good under Sean McVay. But again, he had McVay to guide him, so how will he do without him? He's going to be tasked to find a way to succeed in the stacked NFC West. My best bet is that he will have one good season (maybe his first or second) and then be coasting on that for a while. Think Zac Taylor in Cincinnati, who, coincidentally, is also a McVay protege.
Raiders hire Klint Kubiak: C+
I mostly hate that this forces the Seahawks to go find their fourth coordinator in the past four seasons. I didn't have 100% faith in Klint the whole season, so it will be interesting to see how he does as a head coach. He does have it in his blood, as his dad, Gary, was a head coach for the Texans and Broncos. I think there's a semi-decent chance this works, but like LaFleur with the Cardinals, Kubiak is going to need some other team to take last place. Will the Chiefs continue falling? Will the Chargers or Broncos take a huge step back? I feel like both are unlikely. If they give Klint some time, this may work. He will have weapons to work with. My #1 piece of advice for their front office is to improve their offensive line and get one receiver weapon for their #1 draft pick to throw to.
Monday, January 26, 2026
Top Eight Tribal Councils of the New Era
These tribal councils were the ones that got me on the edge of my seat, got my heart pumping, got me shocked, or all of the above. This will not include Final Tribal Councils or Firemaking Councils/challenges, so only up to the final five vote. It would include potential final four votes, but they essentially got rid of them by including forced firemaking. Perhaps if I remember another, I'll include it on this list, and make any changes in a different color.
8. Survivor 48: Mary's Shot in the Dark hits, Cedrek is left deciding between Sai and Justin
I'm only ranking this at eight because it involved a player losing their vote in Justin, but this tribal was pretty crazy. Mary was the fairly obvious target, so she played her Shot in the Dark, which miraculously hits and saves her. Then, on the revote, there is a split between Sai and Justin. Then some wonky Survivor rules came into play, which meant Cedrek, by not being a part of the vote (but still having one), was the only one who would decide who went home, and he shockingly went against his original vote for Sai and sent Justin home. I felt so bad for Justin, especially since he lost his vote in a manner that was completely outside his control.
7. Survivor 42: Deadlock between Jenny and Lydia, and Strunk caves in
Another smaller pre-merge tribal, this one was also a deadlock, and they got to a point where drawing rocks was on the table. Hai stood firm and said he would go to rocks, not giving away his position. Daniel Strunk, however, really did not want to go to rocks and caved, and Jenny was sent home. The tension in the air for this one was palpable. And for Strunk, he ended up being voted out two episodes later, so maybe he should have just gone to rocks. And this is lower with number eight because it involved a player, Chanelle, losing her vote. If she had not risked her vote, this tribal council would have never happened, at least not this way.
6. Survivor 48: Kyle and Kamilla blindside original Lagi and Thomas with their idol and advantage
After the tribe swap in 48, Kyle and Kamilla found themselves on the bottom against the three original Lagi men in Joe, Thomas, and Shauhin. Fortunately for them, they had acquired an idol and an extra vote before then. Leading up to the vote, Kyle and Kamilla expertly duped the other three into thinking they weren't close and would just vote for the other. However, when tribal came, they played both the idol and advantage correctly, and Thomas was blindsided. Now, with the successful idol play, the extra vote was not necessary, but they were likely being extra safe. It was still an epic blindside.
5. Survivor 44: First Vote on Ratu results in the first successful Shot in the Dark, a Shot in the Dark used to hide someone's allegiance, a banked vote, and a successful idol play.
This will likely forever be my favorite first vote of a season in the New Era. Before tribal, Brandon found an Idol, which he ultimately played for himself. Yet, the majority of the people who actually voted decided to vote for Brandon, hoping he wouldn't play it, or, at the very least, would flush it from him. Jaime played her Shot in the Dark as she was worried at her first tribal (when she shouldn't have been), and it became the first ever Shot in the Dark to hit, although it negated zero votes. Matthew strategically used his Shot in the Dark to hide his allegiance (since it took his vote away). Lauren earned a Bank a Vote advantage on the journey, which she used to save her vote for a later tribal council, and Brandon played the idol he found earlier to negate Kane and Maddy's votes on him. That all resulted in Brandon's lone vote for Maddy being the only vote that counted, sending her home.
4. Survivor 45: Final five vote results in a 2-1-1 vote, and Dee narrowly escapes a blindside
This final five vote was crazy. Case in point, without Jake's idol play on Katurah, it would have been a 2-1-1-1 vote. Madness. Anyway, Jake was counting on Katurah voting out Dee, and his good faith gesture in her agreeing to the plan was him playing his idol on her. But Katurah did not repay Jake's kindness, voting instead for the safe vote of Julie. Had she gone with Jake, the season would have turned out much differently. This vote definitely sank Jake's game.
3. Survivor 45: Kaleb's Shot in the Dark Hits, negating a unanimous vote
The season prior, we witnessed the first-ever Shot in the Dark to hit in Jaime's. But it did not negate any votes. Kaleb knew he was the target, so he played his Shot in the Dark, and for the first time in Survivor history, it negated votes. Not only did it negate votes, but it negated a majority vote, AND it negated a record 11 votes. No other idol play or shot in the dark play has ever negated that many votes. The reactions by everyone, especially Kaleb, when Jeff revealed the "Safe" parchment, made this moment special. Unfortunately for J. Maya, they had to revote, and she was the next target after Kaleb.
2. Season 45: Kellie's blindside results in some memorable reactions
This vote showed we don't have to see idols or advantages to have a great tribal. At this tribal, Jake was at the bottom, and he was the perceived boot by many, including most of the audience. But little did many know, the majority had turned on Kellie due to her being a threat. It resulted in two great reactions from those who got votes. First, Jake's epic reaction of "WOAH...! Sorry... woah," is still hilarious to this day, showing how he initially reacted and then corrected his reaction to be more polite. Then Kellie's "What the hell, guys?" was the cherry on top, as she grabbed her torch. We need more reactions like this when people get voted out!
1. Survivor 43: Jesse blindsides Cody and flushes Karla's idol all in one fell swoop
This may be the greatest performance at a single tribal council in the New Era, maybe in all of Survivor. Jesse managed to sway Gabler and Owen into blindsiding Cody. Not only that, but he managed to flush Karla's idol by playing one he had recently held onto from Cody. Cody had wanted it back, but Jesse was able to hang onto it for one vote long enough to blindside him. This instantly put Jesse at the very top as the frontrunner, and if he could've only beaten Gabler in fire, he easily would've won this season.
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Determining Through Process of Elimination Who Will Win Survivor 50
Survivor 50 is just more than a month away, and I thought I'd attempt to determine the winner of this upcoming season by process of elimination. Basically, I'm slowly going to exclude players in groups or one by one until I'm down to one. At one point, I will say which group I think the winner will almost assuredly come from, but I will still narrow down all the way to one. This will be fun to go back to once the season is over to see how close I was, and what metric may have eliminated the winner (when it shouldn't have).
As a refresher, here are the players, in order of first appearance on Survivor:
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty, Colby Donaldson, Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick, Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Coach Wade, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Angelina Keeley, Mike White, Rick Devens, Jonathan Young, Emily Flippen, Dee Valladares, Tiffany Ervin, Q Burdette, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, Joe Hunter, Kyle Fraser, Rizo Velovic, Savannah Louie
Now I'm going to eliminate them based on things that typically winners do not exemplify.
The first thing I'm going to eliminate is the known final tribal goats. These players are either laughingstocks or not taken seriously, and haven't necessarily made a final tribal council, but if they did, they got at most 1 vote. Now, if someone did get to a final tribal council and got 1 or 0 votes, that doesn't necessarily mean they will be kicked out here. It's based on whether I think they can change.
With that, we will eliminate Stephanie, Angelina, Mike, Jonathan, Q, and Joe. Considered Chrissy, but I feel like she could make a better FTC case.
That leaves the remaining group at Jenna Lewis-Dougherty, Colby Donaldson, Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Coach Wade, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Rick Devens, Emily Flippen, Dee Valladares, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, Kyle Fraser, Rizo Velovic, and Savannah Louie.
Now I probably should've done this from the start, but the second thing we are eliminating potential winners from is if they were a previous winner. I can't see a single winner being allowed to get to the end. And if they did, I can't see a jury re-rewarding them. So that kicks out Dee, Kyle, and Savannah.
That leaves us with Jenna Lewis-Dougherty, Colby Donaldson, Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Coach Wade, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Rick Devens, Emily Flippen, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, and Rizo Velovic.
Next we are going to take out players that haven't played too recently. Here is how many seasons passed between a returning player's win and their previous season: 6, 4, 13, 2, 3, 7, 2, 6, 6. Sandra was the outlier at 13. But no one has ever won with more than 13 seasons separating them from their previous season. However, Survivor has been slack on the returning player seasons in recent years, so I'll be a little lax myself and allow back to 34, Game Changers. So I am going to have to eliminate Jenna, Colby, and Coach.
That leaves us with Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Rick Devens, Emily Flippen, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, and Rizo Velovic.
I'm going to eliminate Rizo. People haven't seen his game, and even if he somehow manages to sneak his way to the end (unlikely), he's likely not beating more experienced/likable players. So we are down to 11.
In what will perhaps be the hardest round for me personally, I'm going to have to eliminate the final tribal council darlings. These are players that are just too likable for their own good. So that will eliminate Cirie, Christian, and Rick Devens. I recall seeing a video Jeff posted after 50 finished shooting, and he didn't seem too thrilled/excited for the result, which leads me to believe these three did not win.
That leaves us with the 8 of Ozzy Lusth, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Emily Flippen, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, and Kamilla Karthigesu.
Now I'm going to eliminate those who wouldn't be taken to the end, and can't win fire or immunity easily. That eliminates Emily and Kamilla. I don't think either has a good path to get to the end. By the way, this also would have eliminated Cirie.
We are left with the 6 of Ozzy Lusth, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, and Genevieve Mushaluk.
Now I'm going to eliminate Ozzy. Sorry Ozzy. One, it's been 16 seasons since he played, and two, he has never shown the strategic or social acumen to win. He's a likely target around the merge, like he was in Game Changers.
That leaves us with Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, and Genevieve Mushaluk. This is the group I think the winner is almost for sure coming from. But now I have to make some tough calls. From this point on, I think I will likely eliminate the winner if I haven't already. And I'm going to go one by one at this point, with a brief explanation for each.
Tiffany is out. Do people want Tiffany to be the Winner of 50? I can't see it.
Charlie is next out. He was the last man standing for me. He's too big a threat, nearly winning and showing skill in all phases of the game.
Aubry is next out. She has slowly gotten worse each time playing, and she is a known social/strategic threat.
That leaves us with Chrissy and Genevieve. And I'm going to eliminate Chrissy. She has a great story, but I think she's a bit too old, might be sniped early, etc. Too many things could go wrong for her. That leaves Genevieve Mushaluk of Survivor 47 as my winner pick! Crazy as it might seem, she's going fly under the radar and then make a great case at final tribal. I'm curious to see if I'll be right on this one. I'll do my Survivor 50 Preview and Predictions when it gets closer, but it looks like my winner pick will indeed be Genevieve.
Monday, November 17, 2025
10 Changes Survivor NEEDS to make for Seasons 51 and Up
1. Either go back to two tribes at the start, or keep mixing it up
This has been something that hardcore fans have grown tired of. For nine straight seasons, (41-49), the show started with three tribes of six people. Why? Smaller tribes are ok on occasion, but not at the start of every season. Why can't we have two tribes of eight, nine, or ten people every now and then? Is that too much to ask? Jeff needs to get over his obsession with this setup.
2. Quit taking away flint
A minor change, but a necessary change nonetheless. Part of the punishment of losing a pre-merge challenge is that the losing tribe loses its flint. That action has only increased the odds of a tribe continuing to lose and falling significantly behind in numbers, creating the dreaded "disaster tribe." It also adds basically nothing to the entertainment value.
3. No mergatory, just merge at different times
We don't need to split people up as part of the merge. Why, for so long, did they have to "earn" the merge? For 40 seasons, earning the merge meant surviving enough votes or winning enough tribal challenges to get to the merge stage of the game. Please revert to that. They did for 49, so I have high hopes they will for 50 and beyond. To keep it fresh, merge at different times like they did before 40.
I initially hated "journeys", when players go off to a separate island to compete for an advantage. I think I'm okay with them now, in moderation. I hate seeing them in every pre-merge episode. I most dislike how they use them to replace separate reward challenges. Gone are the days when most Survivor episodes were a reward, an immunity, and a tribal council. I would like it if they could throw in a couple more pre-merge reward challenges and stop combining the reward with immunity every time. Sometimes, all a struggling tribe needs is to win a reward, and they can't do that if it's always paired with immunity.
6. No forced loss of votes
7. Give them a small amount of rice at the start
Survivor players used to instantly get rice. Yes, that was for 39-day seasons, but even for 26-day seasons, not having ANY food really takes a toll on them, and makes them more lethargic and less active with gameplay and strategy. I even recently saw a comment from Sophi on Season 49 where she said she would have been way more active if she had any food. You want exciting gameplay, Jeff? Give them a small amount of food. Doesn't have to be a lot. Just enough so they aren't lifeless and have zero energy.
8. Make idols hard to find and introduce idol clues again
Think of the most iconic idol finds in Survivor history. Yul on Exile Island. Terry on Exile Island. Russell without a clue. Idols finds were fun to watch when they were very hard to find and typically required a clue to find. Too often in the New Era, they put them between waist and eye level, and we can see them sticking out of a crevice. They need to bury them again, or even put them at challenges again. Just change it up. The "beware advantage" format is beyond stale.
9. Diversify challenges
I wish I had a nickel for every pre-merge challenge in the New Era that ended in a puzzle or a post-merge challenge in the New Era that was endurance-based. It seems like the majority of each. Challenges used to be my favorite part of every episode because of how unique and diverse each was. I know Jeff has stated they want to stay away from physical challenges that could result in injury, such as Sumo at Sea and Smergenbrawl, but there are other challenges in Survivor's history I would love to see return that pose no risk of physical harm. How about the memory challenges from Amazon or Worlds Apart? Or how about the memory math challenge from Tocantins that Stephen dominated? Or how about the knowledge-based games that have players holding a cube and using that for their answers? Jeff is so insistent on every challenge having a physical and puzzle element early on, and an endurance element in the post-merge. Change it up, Jeff, please!
10. Cast from more backgrounds
I'm very happy Survivor is casting more diversely, ethnically. However, that has caused them to cast too many people in white collar cushy jobs and not enough blue-collar "struggling to make ends meet" jobs. Where are the construction workers? Where are the waiters and waitresses? Where are the cashiers and stockers? I know those kinds of people apply too, so why are they being avoided? And while I'm at it, a large chunk of New Era players are from two regions in the U.S.: California and the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. I would wager around 40% if not more, New Era players are from those two regions. Where are the people from the Midwest, the South Atlantic, and Appalachia? How about the Pacific Northwest, my home region? And lastly, while I am still on the topic of casting, I would suggest they cast fewer super fans and more casual fans. Survivor actually had some of its best seasons when casting recruited. Casting itself has gotten stale, and the head of casting, Jesse Tannenbaum, NEEDS to have a different approach. Not everyone has to be a good storyteller. When everyone is a decent storyteller, nobody sticks out, and the season is not memorable.
BONUS: Let things speak for themselves rather than having the player narrate in a confessional
Survivor editors/producers need to focus more on showing us rather than telling. I feel like every advantage/idol find, and every journey is narrated by the person involved, and I'd rather just have the moment speak for itself. Watch past seasons. They allow moments to speak for themselves, and only add a confessional when it adds to the moment. But in modern Survivor, they have the player narrate in the confessional. I'd much rather have them do the journey or find the idol, then, after it's over, talk about it, rather than narrating it and explaining it as it happens.