NFL QB's and Head Coach Tiers

I don't do NFL Predictions anymore, but for the upcoming 2026 NFL season, I thought I'd put each NFL Head Coach/QB pair into a tier or group.  These tiers will be based on expectations going into this season and how much pressure is on them to succeed.  There are a total of six tiers, and here they are, with descriptions:

You are set for a while tier
This tier is the top.  The QB and coach could each have down years in 2026 and each keep their jobs going into 2027.  Pairs in this tier have achieved enough success that they are afforded a down year, if they have one.

We need more tier
This tier is for pairs that have had success, but their fans are demanding more.  Whether they are tired of always losing in the playoffs, or they haven't had any legitimate success for a while, the fans are getting restless and want an outstanding season.

Only one of the two has pressure tier
Either the head coach or the QB has pressure, but not so much on the other.  Perhaps one has had more time to achieve success with their current team, but hasn't.  Or, fans realize when they lose only one is to blame.

Someone is new, but expectations are still fairly high tier
Either the QB or coach is new, but expectations are still fairly high.  Either the QB or coach is expected to come in and have success right away.  Rebuilding is not their plan.  And if they don't get legitimate success in their first few seasons, both could be gone in a few years.

You have time tier
Perhaps the QB is still really young, or the coach is still in his first few years (or both), but despite the lack of legitimate success, they still have time to get it done.  Perhaps there was a recent rebuild and the team might take another year to get to their peak.

Losing is expected, but heads still gotta roll tier
Teams in this tier are almost guaranteed to have a losing record, but depending on how bad the season is, could still result in the team moving on from their QB, head coach, or both.  



I'm going to go division by division and put each into a tier, with explanations after each division.

AFC EAST: 
New England Patriots: You are set for a while
Buffalo Bills: Someone is new, but expectations are still fairly high
Miami Dolphins: You have time
New York Jets: Losing is expected, but heads gotta roll

Comment: The Patriots recent AFC Championship saves Vrabel and Maye for a while.  The Bills and their fans are tired of playoff losses, I'm sure.  But with new head coach Joe Brady hired this offseason, he will get a few years to get them to the promised land.  The Dolphins are seemingly rebuilding from the Tua/McDaniel era, and the Jets might not give Aaron Glenn a third (or Geno a second) year if the season goes poorly enough.

AFC NORTH: 
Baltimore Ravens: Someone is new, but expectations are still fairly high
Pittsburgh Steelers: Someone is new, but expectations are still fairly high
Cincinnati Bengals: We need more
Cleveland Browns: Losing is expected, but heads still gotta roll

Comment: Both the Ravens and Steelers made surprising head coaching changes this offseason and come into 2026 with fairly high expectations.  Both Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson need to do better than they did in 2025.  The Bengals expect more, since they are not long removed from their AFC Championship.  And the Browns... well let's just say Todd Monken seems like a scapegoat/lame duck head coach.  I think they are biding time, hoping to get a high pick for the 2027 draft, and move on from both Monken and Watson.  

AFC SOUTH: 
Houston Texans: We need more
Indianapolis Colts: Only one of the two has pressure
Jacksonville Jaguars: You have time
Tennessee Titans: You have time

Comment: The Texans, with their top-5 defense, have to achieve more.  And that's on CJ Stroud, mostly, but also a bit on Demeco Ryans.  It's debatable for the Colts that only one has pressure, but head coach Shane Steichen is expected to lead this team to the playoffs if Daniel Jones can stay healthy this year.  And it seems crazy to put the Jags and Titans in the same tier considering how different their success has been the last few years, but I think they both will be afforded another year if they have a down 2026.  

AFC WEST: 
Denver Broncos: We need more
Kansas City Chiefs: You are set for a while
Los Angeles Chargers: We need more
Las Vegas Raiders: You have time

Comment: The Broncos have made the playoffs in both of Bo Nix's season, and if he can stay healthy throughout the playoffs, their expectations remain sky high.  The Chiefs are obviously set, even if they have a second straight down year, which does not seem all too likely.  The Chargers fans obviously want more, as they have yet to even reach the AFC Championship in recent memory.  And the Raiders with their new QB/head coach pairing will be given at least a few years.

NFC EAST: 
Philadelphia Eagles: We need more
Dallas Cowboys: Only one of the two has pressure
Washington Commanders: Only one of the two has pressure
New York Giants: Someone is new, but expectations are still fairly high

Comment: The Eagles won the Super Bowl just two seasons ago, but I know 2025 was a disappointment from them and the fans still want more.  Another down season could cause them to move on from Hurts, Sirianni, or both.  The Cowboys love Dak, and we know he's not the reason for their lack of success (it's their defense).  So it's on head coach Brian Schottenheimer to get them back to the postseason.  The Commanders are just a year removed from reaching the NFC Championship game, yet come into 2026 with low expectations.  Jaden Daniels was hurt for a large part of 2025, so the pressure is on Dan Quinn to turn them back around.  And the Giants already have expectations with new head coach John Harbaugh, working with QB Jaxson Dart.

NFC NORTH: 
Chicago Bears: We need more
Green Bay Packers: Only one of the two has pressure
Detroit Lions: We need more
Minnesota Vikings: Only one of the two has pressure

Comment: The Bears head into 2026 with high expectations after winning a playoff game last season, and already I know Bears fans want more.  I do believe we see Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams in 2027 for Chicago even if they miss the playoffs in 2026, but I know their fans want more.  I honestly believe Jordan Love has a ton of pressure next season.  He's following in the footsteps of Favre and Rodgers, which is incredibly difficult to do.  If he struggles or gets hurt again, I could see the Packers wanting to move on.  The Lions fans want more, since their window won't stay open forever.  The Vikings have a new QB in Kyler Murray, who will battle for the job with JJ McCarthy, so it's on coach Kevin O'Connell to turn them back around.

NFC SOUTH: 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Only one of the two has pressure
Carolina Panthers: You have time
New Orleans Saints: You have time
Atlanta Falcons: Only one of the two has pressure

Comment: I was surprised the Bucs didn't fire Todd Bowles last season, but they had BARELY missed the playoffs, so they gave him the benefit of the doubt.  But all pressure is on Bowles this season.  Even though the Panthers won the division last season, I'd say Young and Canales have time to make a legitimate run.  The Saints have plenty of time considering their massive rebuild.  And the Falcons, since head coach Kevin Stefanski is new, I'd say the pressure is on the duo of Tua and Penix.  If neither has success in 2026, the Falcons will look for new QB help next off-season.

NFC WEST: 
Seattle Seahawks: You are set for a while
Los Angeles Rams: We need more
San Francisco 49ers: We need more
Arizona Cardinals: Losing is expected, but heads gotta roll

Comment: The defending champion Seahawks are set for a while, so even a disappointing 2026 will allow Macdonald and Darnold (likely) to keep their jobs.  Macdonald for sure, likely on Darnold.  Both the Rams and 49ers want more, after they both suffered defeats to Seattle in the playoffs.  I expect both head coaches to be fine, but the pressure does start to build for both QB's.  The Cardinals... well, they're the Cardinals.  Good luck LaFleur, is all I gotta say.  

So here's how the teams look when grouped by each tier: 

You are set for a while tier (3)
New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks

We need more tier (9)
Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers

Only one of the two has pressure tier (7- 5 coaches, 2 QB)
Indianapolis Colts (Coach), Dallas Cowboys (Coach), Washington Commanders (Coach), Green Bay Packers (QB), Minnesota Vikings (Coach), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Coach), Atlanta Falcons (QBs)

Someone is new, but expectations are still fairly high tier (4)
Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants

You have time tier (6)
Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints

Losing is expected, but heads still gotta roll tier (3)
New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals

So there we have it.  Shows how much fans want more from their team, with 9 in that tier.  Before I finish things, I'm going to predict which teams will make a head coaching change before the start of the 2027 season.  There's always between 5-8 changes, so my total will be in that range.

Aaron Glenn, NYJ (Fired)
Todd Monken, CLE (Fired)
Zac Taylor, CIN (Fired)
Andy Reid, KC (Retires)
Dan Quinn, WAS (Fired)
Brian Schottenheimer (Fired)
Todd Bowles, TB (Fired)

The big surprise being Andy Reid.  If the Chiefs have another down year, I could see him calling it quits.  We shall see.  As a Seahawks fan, I'm really looking forward to this season.  GO HAWKS!