Survivor 51 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 51 is less than a month away, and with the official cast release, it's time for my cast review and predictions.  Like I did for the entire New Era, I will give each player two comparables of who they remind me of, and then give them a placement I think they'll fall into with a range of 6 spots, such as 12th to 7th, 18th to 13th, etc.  The most recent New Era season, I got 9/18 (and I never did better than that), so I'm hoping to finally get more than half right.  With a 21-person cast, that would mean getting at least 11/21.  I'll organize them alphabetically by first (or preferred) name so I can find them easier later on.  I'll be updating these as they get voted out to see if I'm right or wrong; those updates will be in BOLD.


Aaliyah Puglia, 24, Chef from Providence, RI
Comparables: Lauren Harpe, Tasha Fox
I wasn't quite sure about her comparables; she doesn't look too much like anyone I can think of.  But she seems like a real go-getter.  She's used to fast-paced environments, so I expect her to survive the pre-merge unless she has bad luck (bad tribe) or overplays.  But I can't see her winning; I think people are going to think she plays too hard.  But I could see her possibly getting to the finale, or at least close.  
Predicted finish: 9th-4th

Alexis Levine, 34, Criminal Defense Attorney from Atlanta, GA
Comparables: Elie Scott, Sophie Clarke
Alexis is smartly not going to be telling people her current job, instead going with one of her former ones.  I like that she has a family, is the right age, and has gone through a lot in her life.  If Alexis isn't winning, she's either out pre-merge (possible physical liability) or post-merge as a threat.  I do believe if she gets to the end, she is winning. 
Predicted finish: 6th-1st

Ana Sani, 34, Voice Actress from Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Comparables: Venus Vafa, Kamilla Karthigesu
Despite her comparables above, I think due to her profession, she might come across more like a Maryanne or Soda.  She hopefully won't annoy her tribesmates with her voices.  But I don't think she will.  I think she could get far, but I don't see people rallying to her cause or giving her a ton of votes to win.  Mid-merge boot, I think.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th

Brady Booker, 27, Pro Wrestler from Knoxville, TN
Comparables: Jonathan Young, John Henigan
Brady should get to the merge based on strength alone.  Although, if he has a bad pre-merge, I could see a group targeting him despite him likely being good for them in challenges.  I think Brady's best-case scenario is a losing finalist like Jonathan in 50.  But will he even get that far?  
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd

Angelica "Jelly" Loblack, 29, Sociology Professor from Bloomington, IN
Comparables: Katurah Topps, Shan Smith
I don't know what it is, but I can't see Jelly winning.  Sometimes people just have a look or a face you don't want to trust, and I think that's the case for her.  I think she'll likely get to at least near the merge, but I can't see her being an endgame threat.  
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

Carter Krull, 24, Livestock Farmer from Sioux Falls, SD
Comparables: J.T. Thomas, Dirk Been
I went way back for Carter's comparables, but that just goes to show how seldom the show casts of Carter's farmer type.  I think Carter's midwest/farmer accent will lower people's guards, and I could see him getting far.  But unlike J.T. in Tocantins, people will be on to this and snipe him out before he can get to the end, I bet.  I think he'll do better than Dirk, but worse than J.T. in Tocantins.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th

Cristian Chavez, 26, Head of HR from Salt Lake City, UT
Comparables: Jeremiah Ing, Yam-Yam Arrocho
There is a fine line between annoying and lovable.  Can Cristian be more lovable?  He seems like he'd fit in well with Jeremiah, but Jeremiah was a pre-merge boot (although it was due to him being on a disaster tribe).  I have to say that I don't think Cristian is getting very far.  His laugh is annoying and I don't think people will feel too bad about blindsiding him.
Predicted finish: 19th-14th

Devin Way, 24, Actor from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: Ryan Medrano, Xander Hastings
I feel like Devin lacks the life experience to make a big impact in this game; although I thought the same of Rizo.  I think Devin likely survives the pre-merge if he keeps his head down, finds some alliance partners, and doesn't make too much noise.  But after that, all bets are off.  I could see him being targeted shortly after the merge.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th

Eric Macksoud, 34, Mental Health Counselor from Windsor Locks, CT
Comparables: Mikey Bortone, Danny Massa
Eric has that look that will make people not want to trust him, which is not good for his game.  He's one of the few I would put money on NOT winning 51.  He has that Italian/mobster kind of look to him, and I doubt he'll have too many close allies willing to go the distance with him.  Early boot likely, I think.
Predicted finish: 19th-14th

Jenna Doore, 30, Wedding Photographer from Toledo, OH
Comparables: Shannon Fairweather, Jessica Johnston
She seems like a more levelheaded Shannon, so that's good.  I just can't see her standing out, though.  Like I'm sure she'll find a close ally or two, but she doesn't come across as particularly memorable.  I think she'll be a boot around the merge, whenever that is.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

Danny "Kilby" Kilby, 30, Game Designer from London, Ontario, Canada
Comparables: Andy Rueda, Brandon Donlon
Kilby is sure to be one of the more interesting characters this season.  Will he flame out early like Brandon, or will he be able to somehow survive like Andy?  I guess it will depend if he has others to carry him.  You know what?  I'll give Kilby the benefit of the doubt.  If he somehow manages to squeak his way to the end, he'll likely be a non-factor like Ben in 46.  
Predicted finish: 9th-4th

Kristin Flickinger, 49, Crisis Management from Santa Barbara, CA
Comparables: Elaine Stott, Scout Cloud Lee
I hate to say it, but Kristin is my pick for first boot.  Someone's gotta be, right?  Maybe she'll be in the position of joining whoever loses, but I think she's an early boot.  Her best case is getting far but being voted out for being a bit of a jury threat.  But I don't think she even gets that far.
Predicted finish: 21st-16th

Lewis Kelly, 28, Farmer from Puerto Rico
Comparables: Rizo Velovic, Gavin Whitson
Lewis is definitely a hard one to pinpoint.  I can't see him being TOO early of a boot unless he just can't handle the game at all.  I think he'll get fairly far, but his chances of winning are pretty close to zero, I think.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th

Linnea Capobianco, 25, Entrepreneur from Jersey City, NJ
Comparables: Amanda Kimmel, Sage Ahrens-Nichols
She's got the look of Amanda Kimmel but the quirkiness of Sage from 49.  What do they both have in common?  Yep, final tribal council losers.  I think Linnea could join them.  I think her good looks will be enough to get her to the merge, and I think she'll win over some guys to get far, but not enough to snag the title.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd

Maggie Nestor, 40, Farmer from Charlestown, WV
Comparables: Wendy Jo Desmidt-Kohloff, Annie Davis
I think in her get-to-know the tribesmates video, she said her own family thought she was too out there.  I think her tribesmates will, as well.  She could be one of our losing finalists, but I think even though she'll likely be a provider and hard worker around camp, her tribe will want her gone.  
Predicted finish: 18th-13th

Mike Pinsky, 32, Baseball Executive from New York, NY
Comparables: David Samson, John Cody
If anyone finds out Mike's profession, zero shot of winning.  But can he even get to the end?  It's tough to say.  He's a baseball executive like David from Cagayan, and we all know how that went.  I think Mike does better, but maybe not a ton better.  Perhaps he has trouble fitting in the majority post-merge or he becomes a target right before then.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th

Ori Jean-Charles, 27, Personal Trainer from Spring Valley, NY
Comparables: TK Foster, Alan Ball
We've had a few Division 1 football players (or better) on Survivor, and Ori becomes the newest.  One thing they all have in common is an inability to get in the majority and get far.  We've had early boots like TK, and we've had some get fairly far like Q but still get taken out.  I think Ori will be closer to Q, but I can't see him getting terribly far.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

Patt Cannaday, 33, Federal Prosecutor from Washington D.C.
Comparables: Tori Meehan, Sierra Wright
Patt with two T's is one I'm skeptical of.  I don't like her chances of getting to the finale, but she should get at least somewhat close to the merge?  I know that's not saying a lot.  Obviously, she's gotta keep her job a secret, but if she gets to gung-ho about getting people out as a federal prosecutor, the vote could (and likely will eventually) turn on her.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th

Rob Antonson, 40, Airline Gate Agent from Cumberland, RI
Comparables: Matt Williams, Robb Zbancik
Rob (with only one B) is the second straight older airport worker on a newbie season, following Matt in 49.  He definitely is going to try to relate to the younger crowd, but that big bald head of his is going to be a tough thing to overcome via first impressions.  I hate to say it, but Rob's my pick for getting unlucky this season, such as in a swap screw.  There's VERY likely going to be a tribe swap and I think Rob won't be able to survive it.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th

Sharonda Cox, 34, Resident OBGYN from Richmond, KY
Comparables: Soda Thompson, Kristina Mills
I think Sharonda will fit in well somewhere.  She's an OBGYN, so she's used to making women feel comfortable and safe.  I think she gets fairly far, but becomes a casaulty late post-merge.  Someone has to be.
Predicted finish: 9th-4th

Thien An Nguyen, 24, Medical Student from Fort Worth, TX
Comparables: Helen Li, Eva Erickson
Thien An (pronounced TEN ON) is very full of energy.  This could either work for her or backfire.  Eva had a ton of energy as well, and was the same age.  Either she'll be a pre-merge boot like Helen or she will be a late-gamer like Eva.  So she's high variance.  I think she might grate on people's nerves, so I'm going with the former, unfortunately.  
Predicted finish: 20th-15th

And now a boot order based on where I expect them to finish (this will also be my pre-season power ranking for them):

21st: Kristin
20th: Thien An
19th: Cristian
18th: Eric
17th: Maggie
16th: Rob
15th: Mike
14th: Patt
13th: Devin
12th: Jenna
11th: Ori
10th: Jelly
9th: Ana
8th: Carter
7th: Lewis
6th: Kilby
5th: Ana
4th: Sharonda
3rd: Brady
2nd: Linnea
1st: Alexis

There you have it, my winner pick for Survivor 51 is Alexis!  She has all the qualities I see in Sole Survivors, and if she can survive the pre-merge, she's in great shape.  I don't see too many viable winners in this cast, but I'm sure a few will emerge after the first episode or two.

Here are my winner picks and how they've done so far:
41 - Evie, 9th
42 - Maryanne, 1st WINNER
43 - Jesse, 4th
44 - Lauren, 5th
45 - Sabiyah, 16th
46 - Kenzie, 1st WINNER
47 - Aysha, 16th
48 - Kevin, 17th
49 - Savannah, 1st WINNER (had knowledge she was a 50 returnee)
50 - Aubry, 1st WINNER


And here's where I ranked each of the eventual winner pre-season:
41 - Erika: 3rd
42 - Maryanne: 1st
43 - Gabler: 18th (yikes)
44 - Yam-Yam: 3rd
45 - Dee: 9th
46 - Kenzie: 1st
47 - Rachel: 18th (Another yikes)
48 - Kyle: 2nd (So close)
49 - Savannah: 1st
50 - Aubry: 1st

With an average placement of 5.7.  I have now correctly predicted the winner in four of the last 10 seasons (since the start of the New Era).  It'll be interesting to see if my luck continues into the "Open Era".  

I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range.  Any updates will be in BOLD.  Hoping to somehow get more than half right.  I'll even be content with at least one-third (7/21) right.  We shall see!