Wow, I have somehow almost forgotten to do a post before Survivor 50. Yikes. I'm going to do this one a bit different, since it's a returning player season, but also because it's 24 players instead of 18. I'm going to tier rank the 24 players into just four tiers.
Tier one will be winner contenders. These are the players I expect to vie for the 50 crown. I will be fairly surprised if the winner is not in this tier.
Tier two will be somewhat long-shot winner contenders. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the winner came from this tier, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it, either. There is typically one thing with each player in this tier that will hold them back from winning.
Tier three will be the actual longshots. These players are very likely not winning, but if crazy things happened and they played well, you never know.
Tier four will be the no shots. I would bet money on these players not winning 50. It's not necessarily a zero percent shot (as I'd put Gabler here at the start of 43), but 9 times out of 10, these players stand no shot.
I'm going to go alphabetically, quick thought about each player, and then declare their tier. I'll do my best to divide the tiers evenly, but it will likely not be perfectly even with six in each. At the end, I'll pick my true winner pick from tier one.
Angelina Keely
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
I expect Angelina to try to be taken more seriously in an effort to have a chance at winning. Unfortunately for her, I don't see that being enough, and I think a serious Angelina will rub people the wrong way. She's not completely out of it, but I would be surprised.
Tier THREE
Aubry Bracco
Survivor Kaoh Rong (32), Game Changers (34), and Edge of Extinction (38)
I expect Aubry to improve upon her EoE and GC performances. She has set herself up fairly well by lowering her threat level coming into this season. For that, she is in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Charlie Davis
Survivor 46
The big question will be if Charlie will be able to hide behind the perceived target on him due to him almost winning. I think he might be able to. He's a smart dude. And for that, he's in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Chrissy Hofbeck
Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (35)
Chrissy is coming in as the screwed over queen, being the one that had to deal with the surprise forced firemaking. I think she may fly under the radar and I do think she has a shot. She certainly can make a case at the end this time, given her double mastectomy/cancer scare. But can she warm up to people enough to earn the W?
Tier TWO
Christian Hubicki
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Christian is coming into the game as one of the most likable people. It should be enough for him to avoid being an early merge boot, but he may be one of the larger targets come post-merge. We shall see. I still kinda like his chances. He's almost a lock to win if he makes the end, since he just had a baby and could whip that nugget of information out at the final tribal.
Tier ONE
Cirie Fields
Survivor Panama: Exile Island (12), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), Heroes vs. Villains (20), Game Changers (34)
Can she finally do it? Cirie has always left the game a different way, whether it's Advantage-geddon, idoled out, losing in fire, or being the sole vote at final 3. Cirie in her four times playing has yet to be voted out by a simple plurality vote. She's definitely a front-runner for me, but can she do it?
Tier ONE
Coach Wade
Survivor Tocantins (18), Heroes vs. Villains (20), South Pacific (23)
Coach is coming into 50 as a more mature, subdued player, and I think that bodes well for his chances. I think he has some of the best odds for any male, and if he can fit in and not break promises and own his game at the end, he has a shot.
Tier TWO
Colby Donaldson
Survivor: The Australian Outback (2), All-Stars (8), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
Colby is also coming into the game with a new perspective and strategy. I don't know how well he will handle all the idols and advantages, but I do believe people are not going to want to vote him out easily. I just worry about his ability to handle the modern game.
Tier THREE
Dee Valladares
Survivor 45
Dee is not only coming into 50 as a winner, but arguably the strongest known winner. She will have a lot of work to do to get further than the early merge portion of the game. But if anyone can pull it off, it's Dee. Surprisingly, she's not in my bottom tier, but she can't get hire than Tier three due to her winner status.
Tier THREE
Emily Flippen
Survivor 45
Emily will likely have a low threat level, which should work in her favor. But could she win at the end in front of a jury? I'm on the fence with that one. She's definitely going to be a dark horse winner pick for many.
Tier TWO
Genevieve Mushaluk
Survivor 47
Genevieve will have to work hard to build relationships and win people over since she has very few connections coming into 50. That may work for or against her. Time will tell. I really think Genevieve has great potential as a player, as she gives off Kim Spradlin vibes.
Tier ONE
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Survivor Borneo (1) and All-Stars (8)
Jenna is setting the record for the longest gap (42!) between seasons. But she seems like she'll be ok adjusting to the modern game. She was one of the surprising players who adjusted to the game at the time in All-Stars, so she shows great adaptability. But I do feel like it's been too long and she still has that known distinction of being annoying to other players.
Tier THREE
Joe Hunter
Survivor 48
On one hand, Joe doesn't have a big strategic or social threat level, but on the other hand, it doesn't seem like he's willing to adjust his game from 48 in which he was the final tribal council goat. I think he'll have a good shot of being in the mix come post-merge, but then he's got to make a move and then showcase it at the end.
Tier TWO
Jonathan Young
Survivor 42
Jonathan is known for one thing, and if he cannot make himself known for something else, he has zero shot of winning 50. He can beast challenges all he wants, but in order to win, he will have to make friends, strategize, and make a good strategic move or two. I'm not sure he's capable, ESPECIALLY against these returning players.
Tier FOUR
Kamilla Karthigesu
Survivor 48
Kamilla could very well fly under the radar, but if Kyle makes the merge with her, she's screwed. She has to hope he's gone pre-merge. I don't think anyone will believe she and Kyle wouldn't work together again. But if he is gone, she could fly under the radar. The question is if she can do enough to win without him.
Tier TWO
Kyle Fraser
Survivor 48
Why? Why is he back? I mean I like Kyle and all, but the last season everyone saw was his winning one. He's got zero chance. He may make that case in order to keep him around, but no one is going to feel guilty about voting him out.
Tier FOUR
Mike White
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Mike is another person I am wondering why they are here. Mike is a decent player and a great storyteller, but he's yet another with zero chance of winning. I'll at least enjoy his quips while he's on.
Tier FOUR
Ozzy Lusth
Survivor Cook Islands (13), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), South Pacific (23), Game Changers (34)
I can't imagine a scenario where Ozzy wins. I mean... can he? He certainly can survive a pre-merge. But after that... he might as well just cross his fingers. I'm interested to see how he handles a modern game. I guess you never know. He was one vote away in Cook Islands as a 24-year-old.
Tier THREE
Q Burdette
Survivor 46
Q is too crazy to win Survivor. He just is. He's 95% character and 5% player. He's the new Coach. I want to see some Q antics, but I don't think I'll see them for very long.
Tier FOUR
Rick Devens
Survivor: Edge of Extinction (38)
I go back and forth on Devens. On one hand, he's likable and would easily win over a jury AND there are some likable shields for him (Christian, Cirie, etc.). On the other, he was an early boot that had to return via the Edge and still couldn't get to the end. Apparently, he's practiced fire, but hopefully, he's practiced lowering his threat level, too.
Tier TWO
Rizo Velovic
Survivor 49
Rizo is the big unknown to the other players this season (outside of Savannah), so his chances take an immediate blow. Coach compared him to Russell Hantz, who steamrolled everyone else in HvV because they didn't know his game, either. Rizo's get a HUGE uphill battle.
Tier FOUR
Savannah Louie
Survivor 49
Apparently, everyone will know Savannah won 49, but they won't know all the details, so Savannah is another huge threat and target early. Given her sometimes brash personality... that cannot bode well for her.
Tier FOUR
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Survivor Palau (10), Guatemala (11), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
First off, ICK. If you know, you know. Secondly, Steph has not shown any ability that she knows how to play a modern reality TV game. Just watch her performances in Snakes in the Grass or The Traitors. If I'm ranking these players 1-24 on their chances, she's 23rd at best.
Tier FOUR
Tiffany Nicole Ervin
Survivor 46
I would wager Tiff is coming into the game with perhaps the lowest threat level. That typically is a good thing in a returning player season, but if the big threats get together and target the smaller threats, she is toast. But I don't see that happening. I like Tiff's chances.
Tier ONE
Well, that is everyone! Let's see how the tiers shake out
TIER ONE
Aubry
Charlie
Christian
Cirie
Genevieve
Tiffany
TIER TWO
Chrissy
Coach
Emily
Joe
Kamilla
Rick
TIER THREE
Angelina
Colby
Dee
Jenna
Ozzy
TIER FOUR
Jonathan
Kyle
Mike
Q
Rizo
Savannah
Stephenie
All right, now with that, I'm going to reveal my official winner pick for 50. It's obviously someone in Tier One.
And that is...
AUBRY! She has lowered her threat level tremendously coming into 50, and if she can avoid "having a dialogue" with everyone, she's got a really good chance.
I will likely continue my Four Word Game for 50, but to do it for 24 players the first week, 22 the second, and so on will be very tough. I'll figure something out.
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