Wow, I have somehow almost forgotten to do a post before Survivor 50. Yikes. I'm going to do this one a bit different, since it's a returning player season, but also because it's 24 players instead of 18. I'm going to tier rank the 24 players into just four tiers.
Tier one will be winner contenders. These are the players I expect to vie for the 50 crown. I will be fairly surprised if the winner is not in this tier.
Tier two will be somewhat long-shot winner contenders. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the winner came from this tier, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it, either. There is typically one thing with each player in this tier that will hold them back from winning.
Tier three will be the actual longshots. These players are very likely not winning, but if crazy things happened and they played well, you never know.
Tier four will be the no shots. I would bet money on these players not winning 50. It's not necessarily a zero percent shot (as I'd put Gabler here at the start of 43), but 9 times out of 10, these players stand no shot.
I'm going to go alphabetically, quick thought about each player, and then declare their tier. I'll do my best to divide the tiers evenly, but it will likely not be perfectly even with six in each. At the end, I'll pick my true winner pick from tier one.
I will also go back to this after each week of Survivor with a quick word about my prediction and if they were in the correct tier, with that text being in blue.
Angelina Keely
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
I expect Angelina to try to be taken more seriously in an effort to have a chance at winning. Unfortunately for her, I don't see that being enough, and I think a serious Angelina will rub people the wrong way. She's not completely out of it, but I would be surprised.
Tier THREE
Finish: 19th / With the way the season went for Angelina, she should've been tier four. She had zero win equity and was on a terrible tribe post-swap. She definitely wasn't trying too hard.
Aubry Bracco
Survivor Kaoh Rong (32), Game Changers (34), and Edge of Extinction (38)
I expect Aubry to improve upon her EoE and GC performances. She has set herself up fairly well by lowering her threat level coming into this season. For that, she is in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Finish: 1st / I think it's safe to say that I called this one. She was my unofficial winner pick coming in as you can see below, since I knew she had set herself up well for this season. Man, I'm good. She would be the 4th correct winner pick I've made since I've done this (starting new era), after Maryanne, Kenzie, and Savannah.
Charlie Davis
Survivor 46
The big question will be if Charlie will be able to hide behind the perceived target on him due to him almost winning. I think he might be able to. He's a smart dude. And for that, he's in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Finish: 18th / Yikes. My first big miss. He couldn't get past the fact that Rizo didn't supposedly vote for his #1 at the end. And Rizo was able to sway more people on their tribe than him.
Chrissy Hofbeck
Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (35)
Chrissy is coming in as the screwed over queen, being the one that had to deal with the surprise forced firemaking. I think she may fly under the radar and I do think she has a shot. She certainly can make a case at the end this time, given her double mastectomy/cancer scare. But can she warm up to people enough to earn the W?
Tier TWO
Finish: T-12th / I knew early on Chrissy wasn't a winner contender after her bad edit. She did kind of fly under the radar, but unfortunately for her, she tied herself to Coach at a time she really should not have.
Christian Hubicki
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Christian is coming into the game as one of the most likable people. It should be enough for him to avoid being an early merge boot, but he may be one of the larger targets come post-merge. We shall see. I still kinda like his chances. He's almost a lock to win if he makes the end, since he just had a baby and could whip that nugget of information out at the final tribal.
Tier ONE
Finish: 10th / He was able to avoid being a pre-merge boot, despite being on some terrible tribes. I wish he could've done better for his son, and I wish we could've seen him mention him at the FTC. Well, there's always the reunion.
Cirie Fields
Survivor Panama: Exile Island (12), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), Heroes vs. Villains (20), Game Changers (34)
Can she finally do it? Cirie has always left the game a different way, whether it's Advantage-geddon, idoled out, losing in fire, or being the sole vote at final 3. Cirie in her four times playing has yet to be voted out by a simple plurality vote. She's definitely a front-runner for me, but can she do it?
Tier ONE
Finish: 5th / For the first time, she left the game having received the most votes from multiple people. I think it became fairly obvious that Cirie can never get to the end because she can't win fire or win immunities or find idols--hence why she will never win. This will probably be the last we ever see of her, because, unless they drastically change the game, she can never get to the end.
Coach Wade
Survivor Tocantins (18), Heroes vs. Villains (20), South Pacific (23)
Coach is coming into 50 as a more mature, subdued player, and I think that bodes well for his chances. I think he has some of the best odds for any male, and if he can fit in and not break promises and own his game at the end, he has a shot.
Tier TWO
Finish: T-12th / He did NOT come into 50 as a more mature player. That was all pre-game press. Turns out, Ozzy was the one who came in more mature, not him. He was the same ol' Coach, and as soon as I realized that, he was out as a winner contender for me.
Colby Donaldson
Survivor: The Australian Outback (2), All-Stars (8), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
Colby is also coming into the game with a new perspective and strategy. I don't know how well he will handle all the idols and advantages, but I do believe people are not going to want to vote him out easily. I just worry about his ability to handle the modern game.
Tier THREE
Finish: 15th / Dang, I didn't have the highest of hopes for Colby, but once he got confessionals every episode and decent content, I was starting to feel good about him. At least he played with more gusto this time.
Dee Valladares
Survivor 45
Dee is not only coming into 50 as a winner, but arguably the strongest known winner. She will have a lot of work to do to get further than the early merge portion of the game. But if anyone can pull it off, it's Dee. Surprisingly, she's not in my bottom tier, but she can't get hire than Tier three due to her winner status.
Tier THREE
Finish: 14th / Oddly, it wasn't really her winner status that got her eliminated. She had an argument with Jonathan and his and Coach's side was able to rally everyone else to vote Dee. No two-time winner this go around.
Emily Flippen
Survivor 45
Emily will likely have a low threat level, which should work in her favor. But could she win at the end in front of a jury? I'm on the fence with that one. She's definitely going to be a dark horse winner pick for many.
Tier TWO
Finish: 9th / Well, she had a dark horse chance up until the point she was voted out, which doesn't happen without Cirie's extra vote. She was playing a messy game and would've had to sit at the end against unlikable players.
Genevieve Mushaluk
Survivor 47
Genevieve will have to work hard to build relationships and win people over since she has very few connections coming into 50. That may work for or against her. Time will tell. I really think Genevieve has great potential as a player, as she gives off Kim Spradlin vibes.
Tier ONE
Finish: 16th / Dang, she was one of my winner picks. But she had some CRAZY bad luck. Never got a good swap, found two idols she couldn't even use, yet Aubry, her #1 enemy, was gifted one.
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Survivor Borneo (1) and All-Stars (8)
Jenna is setting the record for the longest gap (42!) between seasons. But she seems like she'll be ok adjusting to the modern game. She was one of the surprising players who adjusted to the game at the time in All-Stars, so she shows great adaptability. But I do feel like it's been too long and she still has that known distinction of being annoying to other players.
Tier THREE
Finish: 24th / All Jenna had to do was target Cirie... AFTER the challenge. But she just couldn't wait. I think she overestimated how fast the modern game moves. It moves fast, but not in the first few days. I was wrong about her adjusting to the modern game, and she played like a Tier four player.
Joe Hunter
Survivor 48
On one hand, Joe doesn't have a big strategic or social threat level, but on the other hand, it doesn't seem like he's willing to adjust his game from 48 in which he was the final tribal council goat. I think he'll have a good shot of being in the mix come post-merge, but then he's got to make a move and then showcase it at the end.
Tier TWO
Finish: 3rd / I cannot believe I ranked him tier two, although he does play a game that will get to the end more often than not. But he had no shot at the end... again. He played way too similar a game to his 48 one, and the players in the game had just seen it, too.
Jonathan Young
Survivor 42
Jonathan is known for one thing, and if he cannot make himself known for something else, he has zero shot of winning 50. He can beast challenges all he wants, but in order to win, he will have to make friends, strategize, and make a good strategic move or two. I'm not sure he's capable, ESPECIALLY against these returning players.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 2nd / I have to say, Jonathan was one of the players (along with Ozzy) who really surprised me this season. If you had told me going into 50 that he was going to make FTC, I would've thought he was getting 0 votes. But he got 3. He definitely played better, but there was still more room to improve.
Kamilla Karthigesu
Survivor 48
Kamilla could very well fly under the radar, but if Kyle makes the merge with her, she's screwed. She has to hope he's gone pre-merge. I don't think anyone will believe she and Kyle wouldn't work together again. But if he is gone, she could fly under the radar. The question is if she can do enough to win without him.
Tier TWO
Finish: 17th / Well, Kyle was gone pre-merge, but it wasn't enough. Kamilla got a bit of a swap screw in being put on a team with Jonathan, who she had just voted against his interest.
Kyle Fraser
Survivor 48
Why? Why is he back? I mean I like Kyle and all, but the last season everyone saw was his winning one. He's got zero chance. He may make that case in order to keep him around, but no one is going to feel guilty about voting him out.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 23rd / I definitely didn't have Kyle's chances very high, but he instantly formed a majority on his tribe, and was positioned quite well on a tribe that was doing well in tribal challenges. Unfortunately for him, his achilles took him out. So I did have him in the right tier, technically, but only because of his injury, which I knew nothing about going in.
Mike White
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Mike is another person I am wondering why they are here. Mike is a decent player and a great storyteller, but he's yet another with zero chance of winning. I'll at least enjoy his quips while he's on.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 20th / Another one I correctly had placed low. However, he seemed to have control of his tribe, at least through their first vote post-swap. But Christian managed to turn the tribe against him. Mike was not winning, but I thought he'd get a little bit further.
Ozzy Lusth
Survivor Cook Islands (13), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), South Pacific (23), Game Changers (34)
I can't imagine a scenario where Ozzy wins. I mean... can he? He certainly can survive a pre-merge. But after that... he might as well just cross his fingers. I'm interested to see how he handles a modern game. I guess you never know. He was one vote away in Cook Islands as a 24-year-old.
Tier THREE
Finish: 8th / I gotta say, it did not take long for me to think he could potentially win. But he fooled all of his. He's still the Ozzy of old, trusting in people when he shouldn't. Still can't read people. And he just had to open his big mouth.
Q Burdette
Survivor 46
Q is too crazy to win Survivor. He just is. He's 95% character and 5% player. He's the new Coach. I want to see some Q antics, but I don't think I'll see them for very long.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 21st / Well, I don't think I particularly forsaw Q going early, but he is the type of player who can. Just because he has physicality doens't mean he's a great assets in challenges, camp life, or people want to vote with. It's a shame. He was a joy to watch.
Rick Devens
Survivor: Edge of Extinction (38)
I go back and forth on Devens. On one hand, he's likable and would easily win over a jury AND there are some likable shields for him (Christian, Cirie, etc.). On the other, he was an early boot that had to return via the Edge and still couldn't get to the end. Apparently, he's practiced fire, but hopefully, he's practiced lowering his threat level, too.
Tier TWO
Finish: 7th / I was fairly spot on with Devens. I knew he would have win equity at the end; it's just he would have trouble getting there. And he couldn't do it again.
Rizo Velovic
Survivor 49
Rizo is the big unknown to the other players this season (outside of Savannah), so his chances take an immediate blow. Coach compared him to Russell Hantz, who steamrolled everyone else in HvV because they didn't know his game, either. Rizo's get a HUGE uphill battle.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 4th / Rizo, like Joe, is a player that can make it far pretty often. But we know his kryptonite, and it's lady fire. He just can't make it. Maybe bring him back in 4-7 years from now, when he's closer to 30, has some more life experience, and either he has practiced fire or the show has hopefully gotten rid of it.
Savannah Louie
Survivor 49
Apparently, everyone will know Savannah won 49, but they won't know all the details, so Savannah is another huge threat and target early. Given her sometimes brash personality... that cannot bode well for her.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 22nd / I think I was fairly spot-on with my assessment of Savannah. She bonded fairly well with her tribe, but became the odd person out after they lost the first two immunity challenges.
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Survivor Palau (10), Guatemala (11), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
First off, ICK. If you know, you know. Secondly, Steph has not shown any ability that she knows how to play a modern reality TV game. Just watch her performances in Snakes in the Grass or The Traitors. If I'm ranking these players 1-24 on their chances, she's 23rd at best.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 10th / Steph did a lot better than I thought she would, given her recent appearances on shows and given she was often on a terrible tribe that went to tribal council often. But she stayed out of the line of fire, and it's hard to say how much win equity she would've had at the end, had she made it. Probably not a ton, but more than I was expecting.
Tiffany Nicole Ervin
Survivor 46
I would wager Tiff is coming into the game with perhaps the lowest threat level. That typically is a good thing in a returning player season, but if the big threats get together and target the smaller threats, she is toast. But I don't see that happening. I like Tiff's chances.
Tier ONE
Finish: 5th / She definitely had a lower threat level like I thought. She just became too much of a social and physical threat late. And she was that puzzle away from getting to final 4, maybe winning Simmotion, and the season.
Well, that is everyone! Let's see how the tiers shake out:
TIER ONE
Aubry
Charlie
Christian
Cirie
Genevieve
Tiffany
TIER TWO
Chrissy
Coach
Emily
Joe
Kamilla
Rick
TIER THREE
Angelina
Colby
Dee
Jenna
Ozzy
TIER FOUR
Jonathan
Kyle
Mike
Q
Rizo
Savannah
Stephenie
All right, now with that, I'm going to reveal my official winner pick for 50. It's obviously someone in Tier One.
And that is...
AUBRY! She has lowered her threat level tremendously coming into 50, and if she can avoid "having a dialogue" with everyone, she's got a really good chance.
I will likely continue my Four Word Game for 50, but to do it for 24 players the first week, 22 the second, and so on will be very tough. I'll figure something out.
Showing posts with label Survivor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Survivor. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Monday, January 26, 2026
Top Eight Tribal Councils of the New Era
The New Era is technically over with the conclusion of Survivor 49, so I thought I'd make a list ranking the Top Eight Tribal Councils of the New Era. Why eight? Because that is literally all that I can think of that were memorable enough to include on a list.
These tribal councils were the ones that got me on the edge of my seat, got my heart pumping, got me shocked, or all of the above. This will not include Final Tribal Councils or Firemaking Councils/challenges, so only up to the final five vote. It would include potential final four votes, but they essentially got rid of them by including forced firemaking. Perhaps if I remember another, I'll include it on this list, and make any changes in a different color.
8. Survivor 48: Mary's Shot in the Dark hits, Cedrek is left deciding between Sai and Justin
I'm only ranking this at eight because it involved a player losing their vote in Justin, but this tribal was pretty crazy. Mary was the fairly obvious target, so she played her Shot in the Dark, which miraculously hits and saves her. Then, on the revote, there is a split between Sai and Justin. Then some wonky Survivor rules came into play, which meant Cedrek, by not being a part of the vote (but still having one), was the only one who would decide who went home, and he shockingly went against his original vote for Sai and sent Justin home. I felt so bad for Justin, especially since he lost his vote in a manner that was completely outside his control.
7. Survivor 42: Deadlock between Jenny and Lydia, and Strunk caves in
Another smaller pre-merge tribal, this one was also a deadlock, and they got to a point where drawing rocks was on the table. Hai stood firm and said he would go to rocks, not giving away his position. Daniel Strunk, however, really did not want to go to rocks and caved, and Jenny was sent home. The tension in the air for this one was palpable. And for Strunk, he ended up being voted out two episodes later, so maybe he should have just gone to rocks. And this is lower, like number eight, because it involved a player, Chanelle, losing her vote. If she had not risked her vote, this tribal council would have never happened, at least not this way.
6. Survivor 48: Kyle and Kamilla blindside original Lagi and Thomas with their idol and advantage
After the tribe swap in 48, Kyle and Kamilla found themselves on the bottom against the three original Lagi men in Joe, Thomas, and Shauhin. Fortunately for them, they had acquired an idol and an extra vote before then. Leading up to the vote, Kyle and Kamilla expertly duped the other three into thinking they weren't close and would just vote for the other. However, when tribal came, they played both the idol and advantage correctly, and Thomas was blindsided. Now, with the successful idol play, the extra vote was not necessary, but they were likely being extra safe. It was still an epic blindside.
5. Survivor 44: First Vote on Ratu results in the first successful Shot in the Dark, a Shot in the Dark used to hide someone's allegiance, a banked vote, and a successful idol play.
This will likely forever be my favorite first vote of a season in the New Era. Before tribal, Brandon found an Idol, which he ultimately played for himself. Yet, the majority of the people who actually voted decided to vote for Brandon, hoping he wouldn't play it, or, at the very least, would flush it from him. Jaime played her Shot in the Dark as she was worried at her first tribal (when she shouldn't have been), and it became the first ever Shot in the Dark to hit, although it negated zero votes. Matthew strategically used his Shot in the Dark to hide his allegiance (since it took his vote away). Lauren earned a Bank a Vote advantage on the journey, which she used to save her vote for a later tribal council, and Brandon played the idol he found earlier to negate Kane and Maddy's votes on him. That all resulted in Brandon's lone vote for Maddy being the only vote that counted, sending her home.
4. Survivor 45: Final five vote results in a 2-1-1 vote, and Dee narrowly escapes a blindside
This final five vote was crazy. Case in point, without Jake's idol play on Katurah, it would have been a 2-1-1-1 vote. Madness. Anyway, Jake was counting on Katurah voting out Dee, and his good faith gesture in her agreeing to the plan was him playing his idol on her. But Katurah did not repay Jake's kindness, voting instead for the safe vote of Julie. Had she gone with Jake, the season would have turned out much differently. This vote definitely sank Jake's game.
3. Survivor 45: Kaleb's Shot in the Dark Hits, negating a unanimous vote
The season prior, we witnessed the first-ever Shot in the Dark to hit in Jaime's. But it did not negate any votes. Kaleb knew he was the target, so he played his Shot in the Dark, and for the first time in Survivor history, it negated votes. Not only did it negate votes, but it negated a majority vote, AND it negated a record 11 votes. No other idol play or shot in the dark play has ever negated that many votes. The reactions by everyone, especially Kaleb, when Jeff revealed the "Safe" parchment, made this moment special. Unfortunately for J. Maya, they had to revote, and she was the next target after Kaleb.
2. Season 45: Kellie's blindside results in some memorable reactions
This vote showed we don't have to see idols or advantages to have a great tribal. At this tribal, Jake was at the bottom, and he was the perceived boot by many, including most of the audience. But little did many know, the majority had turned on Kellie due to her being a threat. It resulted in two great reactions from those who got votes. First, Jake's epic reaction of "WOAH...! Sorry... woah," is still hilarious to this day, showing how he initially reacted and then corrected his reaction to be more polite. Then Kellie's "What the hell, guys?" was the cherry on top, as she grabbed her torch. We need more reactions like this when people get voted out!
1. Survivor 43: Jesse blindsides Cody and flushes Karla's idol all in one fell swoop
This may be the greatest performance at a single tribal council in the New Era, maybe in all of Survivor. Jesse managed to sway Gabler and Owen into blindsiding Cody. Not only that, but he managed to flush Karla's idol by playing one he had recently held onto from Cody. Cody had wanted it back, but Jesse was able to hang onto it for one vote long enough to blindside him. This instantly put Jesse at the very top as the frontrunner, and if he could've only beaten Gabler in fire, he easily would've won this season.
These tribal councils were the ones that got me on the edge of my seat, got my heart pumping, got me shocked, or all of the above. This will not include Final Tribal Councils or Firemaking Councils/challenges, so only up to the final five vote. It would include potential final four votes, but they essentially got rid of them by including forced firemaking. Perhaps if I remember another, I'll include it on this list, and make any changes in a different color.
8. Survivor 48: Mary's Shot in the Dark hits, Cedrek is left deciding between Sai and Justin
I'm only ranking this at eight because it involved a player losing their vote in Justin, but this tribal was pretty crazy. Mary was the fairly obvious target, so she played her Shot in the Dark, which miraculously hits and saves her. Then, on the revote, there is a split between Sai and Justin. Then some wonky Survivor rules came into play, which meant Cedrek, by not being a part of the vote (but still having one), was the only one who would decide who went home, and he shockingly went against his original vote for Sai and sent Justin home. I felt so bad for Justin, especially since he lost his vote in a manner that was completely outside his control.
7. Survivor 42: Deadlock between Jenny and Lydia, and Strunk caves in
Another smaller pre-merge tribal, this one was also a deadlock, and they got to a point where drawing rocks was on the table. Hai stood firm and said he would go to rocks, not giving away his position. Daniel Strunk, however, really did not want to go to rocks and caved, and Jenny was sent home. The tension in the air for this one was palpable. And for Strunk, he ended up being voted out two episodes later, so maybe he should have just gone to rocks. And this is lower, like number eight, because it involved a player, Chanelle, losing her vote. If she had not risked her vote, this tribal council would have never happened, at least not this way.
6. Survivor 48: Kyle and Kamilla blindside original Lagi and Thomas with their idol and advantage
After the tribe swap in 48, Kyle and Kamilla found themselves on the bottom against the three original Lagi men in Joe, Thomas, and Shauhin. Fortunately for them, they had acquired an idol and an extra vote before then. Leading up to the vote, Kyle and Kamilla expertly duped the other three into thinking they weren't close and would just vote for the other. However, when tribal came, they played both the idol and advantage correctly, and Thomas was blindsided. Now, with the successful idol play, the extra vote was not necessary, but they were likely being extra safe. It was still an epic blindside.
5. Survivor 44: First Vote on Ratu results in the first successful Shot in the Dark, a Shot in the Dark used to hide someone's allegiance, a banked vote, and a successful idol play.
This will likely forever be my favorite first vote of a season in the New Era. Before tribal, Brandon found an Idol, which he ultimately played for himself. Yet, the majority of the people who actually voted decided to vote for Brandon, hoping he wouldn't play it, or, at the very least, would flush it from him. Jaime played her Shot in the Dark as she was worried at her first tribal (when she shouldn't have been), and it became the first ever Shot in the Dark to hit, although it negated zero votes. Matthew strategically used his Shot in the Dark to hide his allegiance (since it took his vote away). Lauren earned a Bank a Vote advantage on the journey, which she used to save her vote for a later tribal council, and Brandon played the idol he found earlier to negate Kane and Maddy's votes on him. That all resulted in Brandon's lone vote for Maddy being the only vote that counted, sending her home.
4. Survivor 45: Final five vote results in a 2-1-1 vote, and Dee narrowly escapes a blindside
This final five vote was crazy. Case in point, without Jake's idol play on Katurah, it would have been a 2-1-1-1 vote. Madness. Anyway, Jake was counting on Katurah voting out Dee, and his good faith gesture in her agreeing to the plan was him playing his idol on her. But Katurah did not repay Jake's kindness, voting instead for the safe vote of Julie. Had she gone with Jake, the season would have turned out much differently. This vote definitely sank Jake's game.
3. Survivor 45: Kaleb's Shot in the Dark Hits, negating a unanimous vote
The season prior, we witnessed the first-ever Shot in the Dark to hit in Jaime's. But it did not negate any votes. Kaleb knew he was the target, so he played his Shot in the Dark, and for the first time in Survivor history, it negated votes. Not only did it negate votes, but it negated a majority vote, AND it negated a record 11 votes. No other idol play or shot in the dark play has ever negated that many votes. The reactions by everyone, especially Kaleb, when Jeff revealed the "Safe" parchment, made this moment special. Unfortunately for J. Maya, they had to revote, and she was the next target after Kaleb.
2. Season 45: Kellie's blindside results in some memorable reactions
This vote showed we don't have to see idols or advantages to have a great tribal. At this tribal, Jake was at the bottom, and he was the perceived boot by many, including most of the audience. But little did many know, the majority had turned on Kellie due to her being a threat. It resulted in two great reactions from those who got votes. First, Jake's epic reaction of "WOAH...! Sorry... woah," is still hilarious to this day, showing how he initially reacted and then corrected his reaction to be more polite. Then Kellie's "What the hell, guys?" was the cherry on top, as she grabbed her torch. We need more reactions like this when people get voted out!
1. Survivor 43: Jesse blindsides Cody and flushes Karla's idol all in one fell swoop
This may be the greatest performance at a single tribal council in the New Era, maybe in all of Survivor. Jesse managed to sway Gabler and Owen into blindsiding Cody. Not only that, but he managed to flush Karla's idol by playing one he had recently held onto from Cody. Cody had wanted it back, but Jesse was able to hang onto it for one vote long enough to blindside him. This instantly put Jesse at the very top as the frontrunner, and if he could've only beaten Gabler in fire, he easily would've won this season.
Monday, November 17, 2025
10 Changes Survivor NEEDS to make for Seasons 51 and Up
Obviously, I love the show, "Survivor". I've gone over how to improve the show before, but this time I want to go over ten changes the show really needs to make post-Season 50. It'll be another chance for a new era, a fresh start. Also, these ten changes are ones the show could easily make and most of them wouldn't cost them any more money. So, here are changes I think most fans would absolutely approve of, in no particular order:
1. Either go back to two tribes at the start, or keep mixing it up
This has been something that hardcore fans have grown tired of. For nine straight seasons, (41-49), the show started with three tribes of six people. Why? Smaller tribes are ok on occasion, but not at the start of every season. Why can't we have two tribes of eight, nine, or ten people every now and then? Is that too much to ask? Jeff needs to get over his obsession with this setup.
2. Quit taking away flint
A minor change, but a necessary change nonetheless. Part of the punishment of losing a pre-merge challenge is that the losing tribe loses its flint. That action has only increased the odds of a tribe continuing to lose and falling significantly behind in numbers, creating the dreaded "disaster tribe." It also adds basically nothing to the entertainment value. We know they don't have much food. You don't need to take away flint to make the show look tougher, which it doesn't even do.
3. No mergatory, just merge at different times
We don't need to split people up as part of the merge. Why, for so long, did they have to "earn" the merge? For 40 seasons, earning the merge meant surviving enough votes or winning enough tribal challenges to get to the merge stage of the game. Please revert to that. They did for 49, so I have high hopes they will for 50 and beyond. To keep it fresh, merge at different times like they did before 40.
BONUS: Let things speak for themselves rather than having the player narrate in a confessional
Survivor editors/producers need to focus more on showing us rather than telling. I feel like every advantage/idol find, and every journey is narrated by the person involved, and I'd rather just have the moment speak for itself. Watch past seasons. They allow moments to speak for themselves, and only add a confessional when it adds to the moment. But in modern Survivor, they have the player narrate in the confessional. I'd much rather have them do the journey or find the idol, then, after it's over, talk about it, rather than narrating it and explaining it as it happens.
1. Either go back to two tribes at the start, or keep mixing it up
This has been something that hardcore fans have grown tired of. For nine straight seasons, (41-49), the show started with three tribes of six people. Why? Smaller tribes are ok on occasion, but not at the start of every season. Why can't we have two tribes of eight, nine, or ten people every now and then? Is that too much to ask? Jeff needs to get over his obsession with this setup.
2. Quit taking away flint
A minor change, but a necessary change nonetheless. Part of the punishment of losing a pre-merge challenge is that the losing tribe loses its flint. That action has only increased the odds of a tribe continuing to lose and falling significantly behind in numbers, creating the dreaded "disaster tribe." It also adds basically nothing to the entertainment value. We know they don't have much food. You don't need to take away flint to make the show look tougher, which it doesn't even do.
3. No mergatory, just merge at different times
We don't need to split people up as part of the merge. Why, for so long, did they have to "earn" the merge? For 40 seasons, earning the merge meant surviving enough votes or winning enough tribal challenges to get to the merge stage of the game. Please revert to that. They did for 49, so I have high hopes they will for 50 and beyond. To keep it fresh, merge at different times like they did before 40.
4. Only split people up post-merge for a reward
Another pet peeve we hardcore Survivor fans have is how they split players up post-merge for not only immunity, but sometimes separate tribal councils. Too many players have gotten screwed by being put in a group with no allies. Jeff Probst seems to like it when luck is a major factor in Survivor, but introducing twists like this adds way too much luck to the game. We don't want to see lucky players win, we want to see GOOD players win. We can only imagine the great players and winning games we were potentially robbed of in recent seasons because someone got put on a team with few or no allies and they were voted out.
5. Fewer journeys
I initially hated "journeys", when players go off to a separate island to compete for an advantage. I think I'm okay with them now, in moderation. I hate seeing them in every pre-merge episode. I most dislike how they use them to replace separate reward challenges. Gone are the days when most Survivor episodes were a reward, an immunity, and a tribal council. I would like it if they could throw in a couple more pre-merge reward challenges and stop combining the reward with immunity every time. Sometimes, all a struggling tribe needs is to win a reward or challenge of any kind, and it is a lot harder to do if it's always paired with immunity.
6. No forced loss of votes
I initially hated "journeys", when players go off to a separate island to compete for an advantage. I think I'm okay with them now, in moderation. I hate seeing them in every pre-merge episode. I most dislike how they use them to replace separate reward challenges. Gone are the days when most Survivor episodes were a reward, an immunity, and a tribal council. I would like it if they could throw in a couple more pre-merge reward challenges and stop combining the reward with immunity every time. Sometimes, all a struggling tribe needs is to win a reward or challenge of any kind, and it is a lot harder to do if it's always paired with immunity.
6. No forced loss of votes
One of my personal biggest pet peeves of modern Survivor is how easily players lose their votes. It's especially irksome when the player(s) involved have zero say in whether they lose their vote or not. Losing their vote to play their shot in the dark? That's fine. Lose their vote to get a beware advantage? Also ok. They chose it. Losing your vote because you were selected for a journey? NOT OK. Too many players have been screwed over by this. If you give the players the choice, that's fine. But do not instantly say they lose their vote and have to "earn" it back. Again, this is production forcing luck to be a part of the game, which most fans do not like.
7. Give them a small amount of rice at the start
Survivor players used to instantly get rice. Yes, that was for 39-day seasons, but even for 26-day seasons, not having ANY food really takes a toll on them, and makes them more lethargic and less active with gameplay and strategy. I even recently saw a comment from Sophi on Season 49 where she said she would have been way more active if she had any food. You want exciting gameplay, Jeff? Give them a small amount of food. Doesn't have to be a lot. Just enough so they aren't lifeless and have zero energy.
8. Make idols hard to find and introduce idol clues again
Think of the most iconic idol finds in Survivor history. Yul on Exile Island. Terry on Exile Island. Sugar in Gabon. Russell, without using a clue. Idols finds were fun to watch when they were very hard to find and typically required a clue to find. Too often in the New Era, they put them between waist and eye level, and we can see them sticking out of a crevice. They need to bury them again, or even put them at challenges again. Just change it up. The "beware advantage" format is beyond stale.
9. Diversify challenges
I wish I had a nickel for every pre-merge challenge in the New Era that ended in a puzzle or a post-merge challenge in the New Era that was endurance-based. It seems like the majority of each. Challenges used to be my favorite part of every episode because of how unique and diverse each was. I know Jeff has stated they want to stay away from physical challenges that could result in injury, such as Sumo at Sea and Smergenbrawl, but there are other challenges in Survivor's history I would love to see return that pose no risk of physical harm. How about the memory challenges from Amazon or Worlds Apart? Or how about the memory math challenge from Tocantins that Stephen dominated? Or how about the knowledge-based games that have players holding a cube and using that for their answers? Jeff is so insistent on every challenge having a physical and puzzle element early on, and an endurance element in the post-merge. Change it up, Jeff, please!
10. Cast from more backgrounds
I'm very happy Survivor is casting more diversely, ethnically. However, that has caused them to cast too many people in white-collar cushy jobs and not enough blue-collar "struggling to make ends meet" jobs. Where are the construction workers? Where are the waiters and waitresses? Where are the cashiers and stockers? I know those kinds of people apply too, so why are they being avoided? And while I'm at it, a large chunk of New Era players are from two regions in the U.S.: California and the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. I would wager around 40%, if not more, New Era players are from those two regions. Where are the people from the Midwest, the South Atlantic, and Appalachia? How about the Pacific Northwest, my home region? And lastly, while I am still on the topic of casting, I would suggest they cast fewer super fans and more casual fans. Survivor actually had some of its best seasons when casting recruited. Casting itself has gotten stale, and the head of casting, Jesse Tannenbaum, NEEDS to have a different approach. Not everyone has to be a good storyteller. When everyone is a decent storyteller, nobody sticks out, and the season is not memorable.
7. Give them a small amount of rice at the start
Survivor players used to instantly get rice. Yes, that was for 39-day seasons, but even for 26-day seasons, not having ANY food really takes a toll on them, and makes them more lethargic and less active with gameplay and strategy. I even recently saw a comment from Sophi on Season 49 where she said she would have been way more active if she had any food. You want exciting gameplay, Jeff? Give them a small amount of food. Doesn't have to be a lot. Just enough so they aren't lifeless and have zero energy.
8. Make idols hard to find and introduce idol clues again
Think of the most iconic idol finds in Survivor history. Yul on Exile Island. Terry on Exile Island. Sugar in Gabon. Russell, without using a clue. Idols finds were fun to watch when they were very hard to find and typically required a clue to find. Too often in the New Era, they put them between waist and eye level, and we can see them sticking out of a crevice. They need to bury them again, or even put them at challenges again. Just change it up. The "beware advantage" format is beyond stale.
9. Diversify challenges
I wish I had a nickel for every pre-merge challenge in the New Era that ended in a puzzle or a post-merge challenge in the New Era that was endurance-based. It seems like the majority of each. Challenges used to be my favorite part of every episode because of how unique and diverse each was. I know Jeff has stated they want to stay away from physical challenges that could result in injury, such as Sumo at Sea and Smergenbrawl, but there are other challenges in Survivor's history I would love to see return that pose no risk of physical harm. How about the memory challenges from Amazon or Worlds Apart? Or how about the memory math challenge from Tocantins that Stephen dominated? Or how about the knowledge-based games that have players holding a cube and using that for their answers? Jeff is so insistent on every challenge having a physical and puzzle element early on, and an endurance element in the post-merge. Change it up, Jeff, please!
10. Cast from more backgrounds
I'm very happy Survivor is casting more diversely, ethnically. However, that has caused them to cast too many people in white-collar cushy jobs and not enough blue-collar "struggling to make ends meet" jobs. Where are the construction workers? Where are the waiters and waitresses? Where are the cashiers and stockers? I know those kinds of people apply too, so why are they being avoided? And while I'm at it, a large chunk of New Era players are from two regions in the U.S.: California and the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. I would wager around 40%, if not more, New Era players are from those two regions. Where are the people from the Midwest, the South Atlantic, and Appalachia? How about the Pacific Northwest, my home region? And lastly, while I am still on the topic of casting, I would suggest they cast fewer super fans and more casual fans. Survivor actually had some of its best seasons when casting recruited. Casting itself has gotten stale, and the head of casting, Jesse Tannenbaum, NEEDS to have a different approach. Not everyone has to be a good storyteller. When everyone is a decent storyteller, nobody sticks out, and the season is not memorable.
BONUS: Let things speak for themselves rather than having the player narrate in a confessional
Survivor editors/producers need to focus more on showing us rather than telling. I feel like every advantage/idol find, and every journey is narrated by the person involved, and I'd rather just have the moment speak for itself. Watch past seasons. They allow moments to speak for themselves, and only add a confessional when it adds to the moment. But in modern Survivor, they have the player narrate in the confessional. I'd much rather have them do the journey or find the idol, then, after it's over, talk about it, rather than narrating it and explaining it as it happens.
Friday, May 30, 2025
Alternative Picks for Each of the Survivor 50 Cast
I already gave my thoughts on the Survivor 50 cast, and while it's a decent cast and it should be a fun watch, I would have to say for a large majority of them, there is a player who I'd rather see, and most of those alternatives are people who would actually want to play again. So in other words, I think they mostly got the cast wrong. And I will do my best to pick a player of the same archetype or at least of the same gender, and even from the same era, although I'm going to replace a lot of New Era players with non-New Era players. I'll go through and list an alternative for each player on 50, and then I'll rate it on a scale of 1-5. Here's what the scale means:
1- I actually prefer who the producers chose, but not by a ton.
2- I'm okay either way. Happy to see either choice.
3- I would kind of prefer to see my choice, but I understand.
4- I really prefer my choice. I need an explanation, Jeffrey.
5- WTF why didn't they chose my person instead of theirs I'm so mad.
Player cast: Jenna Lewis-Dougherty - Borneo, All-Stars
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jerri Manthey, Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
Rating: 4
Comment: I'm guessing they really wanted someone from Borneo to have someone bookend 1 and 50, but I'd much rather have Jerri on my screen again than Jenna. Besides, gotta have Jerri to go with Colby!
Player cast: Colby Donaldson - Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Rob Cesternino - Amazon, All-Stars
Rating: 4
Comment: How can they have Colby and not Jerri? Sigh. I know, Colby is one of the biggest names in Survivor history, but Rob Cesternino is up there as well, especially with RHAP.
Player cast: Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick - Palau, Guatemala, Heroes vs. Villains
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Heidi Hamels (nee Strobel) - Amazon
Rating: 3
Comment: Funnily enough, these two both married MLB pitchers. But I'd rather see Heidi, who I know has kept in good shape, since she hasn't returned yet, while Stephenie has twice. But I undestand going for Stephenie as she is the bigger name.
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Amanda Kimmel - China, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains
Rating: 3
Comment: Amanda is the only one of the Black Widow Brigade's F3 that hasn't played in recent years. There were rumors she might return. She did pop up recently with her real estate business in Montana. But I guess she's done with the show.
Player cast: Ozzy Lusth - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, South Pacific, Game Changers
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jonathan Penner - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Philippines
Rating: 4
Comment: Again, if we had to cast someone from Cook Islands and Micronesia, why not Penner? I know he's older, but I know his story about his wife would touch everyone. But Ozzy not being able to dominate in challenges anymore makes him just not as entertaining.
Player cast: Coach Wade - Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains, South Pacific
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Stephen Fishbach - Tocantins, Cambodia: Second Chance
Rating: 2
Coach is the first casting that I probably wouldn't change. But he's in his 50s, and I don't need a senile Coach. Although that'd be entertaining. I know Stephen has stayed in the community, appearing on RHAP, and I'd love to see him play again.
Player cast: Aubry Bracco - Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Edge of Extinction
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Abi-Maria Gomes - Philippines, Cambodia: Second Chance
Rating: 4
Comment: Abi is such an entertaining villainess, and from her social media, we know she wanted to play again and was in the casting process. Aubry to me isn't nearly as entertaining. And we've seen Aubry one more time (now two more times) than Abi.
Player cast: Chrissy Hofbeck - Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Victoria Baamonde - Edge of Extinction
Rating: 3
Comment: Like I said in my previous post, the show basically owes Chrissy, but I think I'd rather see Victoria. Not that she's the same archetype, but I think she's better TV, if slightly. Plus, she's younger and easier on the eyes.
Player cast: Christian Hubicki - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Devon Pinto
Rating: 1
Comment: I even struggled to think of someone for this. Christian is 100% a good casting. Devon, however, would be fun to see back, too.
Player cast: Angelina Keeley - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Hannah Shapiro - Millennials vs. Gen X
Rating: 1
Comment: Again, I'm 100% ok with this casting. Hannah, however, would have been an out of left field casting that I would appreciate.
Player cast: Mike White - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Domenick Abbate - Ghost Island
Rating: 5
Comment: Jeff picking his friend over the only person to lose a tiebreaking FTC vote is certainly a choice. Mike isn't a boring character, at least. But Domenick would be so fun to see.
Player cast: Rick Devens - Edge of Extinction
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Dean Kowalski - Island of the Idols
Rating: 1
Comment: Again, no complaints. Love seeing Devens back. Dean was an underrated character who I was rooting for on his season, so there's that.
Player cast: Jonathan Young - 42
Who I'd maybe cast instead: David Kinne - 48
Rating: 2
Comment: I could go either way with these New Era challenge beasts. Jonathan was more of a pre-merge challenge beast, while David did a little better with post-merge challenges. I like David's strategic game a little more, though. Oh well.
Player cast: Emily Flippen - 45
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Carolyn Wiger - 44
Rating: 4
Comment: I think I'm in the majority in saying Carolyn would be more interesting than Emily, although both are good TV. I just wonder why they chose Emily over Carolyn. Just seems puzzling.
Player cast: Dee Valladares - 45
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Kellie Nalbandian - 45
Rating: 3
First off, why two winners? Feels weird. But I think Kellie was a diamond in the rought (would greatly improve with a second chance), so maybe Kellie should wait for Second Chances 2, if they ever do that.
Player cast: Quintavius "Q" Burdette - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Kaleb Gebrewold - 45
Rating: 2
Q is a great character, so I'm not complaining. But I really want to see Kaleb back, as well. But I will admit Q is a better character. I'd just prefer to see Kaleb's gameplay.
Player cast: Charlie Davis - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Austin Li Coon - 45
Rating: 2
Comment: I really liked 45's cast, I guess! Both these guys lost a final tribal to a young female. But if they were going to bring back Dee, I think they should've brought back Austin.
Player cast: Tiffany Ervin - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Shan Smith - 41
Rating: 5
Comment: Shan is a villain, with her own "Shanthem". What does Tiffany bring? Uh.... she got voted out with an idol? She dealt with Q and Bhanu? She's not a bad character or player, but it certainly is puzzling to say the least.
Player cast: Genevieve Mushaluk - 47
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Karla Cruz Godoy - 43
Rating: 3
Comment: First, 50 needs more queer representation. But secondly, Karla was a more interesting character to me. She wasn't purpled pre-merge like Genevieve was. Plus, add another POC.
Player cast: Kyle Fraser - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jesse Lopez - 43
Rating: 5
Comment: Why did Kyle have to return so soon? Doesn't make a ton of sense. And how they didn't cast Jesse will puzzle me for a long time. I really want to try to understand this, but I can't.
Player cast: Joe Hunter - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Cody Assenmacher - 43
Rating: 4
Comment: Another from 43 I'd love to see again is Cody. And he was more interesting than Joe. As endearing? Maybe not. I just feel like in casting they were too biased towards the recent seasons.
Player cast: Kamilla Karthigesu - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Maryanne Okech, 42
Rating: 2
Comment: Well, if we're going to bring back winners, why not Maryanne? She was a very fun and likable winner. Although I'm interested to see how Kamilla does on a quick second chance.
Player cast: Male 49 returning player
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Hunter McKnight, 46
Rating: 4
Comment: I'm not going to spoil who it is here (look it up if you want to know), but regardless of how that player is, I'd rather see Hunter. I liked him. Why the heck not?
Player cast: Female 49 returning player
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Star Toomey, 48
Rating: 3
Comment: If we're going to bring back players from 48, why not Star? She was entertaining as all get-out, the few times she was on screen. But we'll have to wait and see how a certain someone is on 49.
And now that I've gone over alternate picks, here's an alternate cast of 50. I'm going to replace each player if I gave a 3 or higher. If I gave a 1 or 2, I won't.
Males:
Rob Cesternino
Jonathan Penner
Coach Wade
Christian Hubicki
Domenick Abbate
Rick Devens
Jonathan Young
Q Burdette
Charlie Davis
Jesse Lopez
Cody Assenmacher
Hunter McKnight
Females:
Jerri Manthey
Heidi Strobel
Amanda Kimmel
Abi-Maria Gomes
Victoria Baamonde
Angelina Keeley
Carolyn Wiger
Kellie Nalbandian
Shan Smith
Karla Cruz Godoy
Kamilla Karthigesu
Star Toomey
Now which cast is better, the actual 50 cast or my 50 cast? Obviously, I think my own, but I'm still happy with the one they actually chose. But there sure are some really good ones they missed out on.
Wednesday, May 28, 2025
My Thoughts on Each of the Survivor 50 Players
The Survivor 50 Cast has officially been revealed, and I'm somewhere between whelmed and excited. I guess you could say my excitement is tempered. There are a few things I'd like to comment on now, such as no players whose original season was between Seasons 19-31, and how we got 11 players from seasons 45-49. Definitely some recency bias there. But man, it is going to be so fun seeming some of these players interact. For each player, I'm going to rate them on a scale of 1-5 (5 being the highest) on how much I'm personally clamoring to see them back (which includes how much I'll be rooting for them) and what I think their chances of winning are.
After reviewing each player, I'm going to pick my Top 5 Duos I want to see interact. Each duo will be someone new, so I won't use the same player for any two duos.
Also, there are two rumored players from 49 on 50, but I won't comment on them just yet, since I haven't seen them play. After 49, however, I'll come back and talk about them here.
Here we go, in order of their initial season...
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty - Borneo, All-Stars
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of Winning: 2
They had to have a token Borneo player, and I know people were rooting for Greg, maybe a Colleen or Gervase. But Jenna works, I guess. I kind of expect her run to go similarly to Kelly Wigglesworth's in Second Chances. Possibly a purple edit with no real chance of winning. But, you never know. She will certainly not be a threat. My biggest worry for her is the older players being targeted early, just like they were in Winners at War.
Colby Donaldson - Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 2
I don't think I've even seen what Colby looks like in recent years. Surely he's nowhere near as athletic. But he was the first legitimate star of Survivor, with people naming their kids after him. One thing I've wondered is if he may have had more win equity in HvV than AO. He had Hero pals on the jury. If he can make friends and get to the end, you never know. But like Jenna, I worry about the newbies ganging up on the "oldies".
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick - Palau, Guatemala, Heroes vs. Villains
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 1
Stephanie couldn't win a season she had an edge on as a captain, so I don't think she'll be capable of winning here. I actually expect her to be an early boot, like she was on HvV, as I worry about her ingratiating herself with other tribe members, especially more recent players. Or she could slip on by. It'll depend on what the main driving force will be on a lot of votes.
Cirie Fields - Panama: Exile Island, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains, Game Changers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 4
Anyone else suffering Cirie fatigue? That kinda rhymes. And I didn't even really watch her Traitors season, although I saw her on AU vs. the World. I worry the show may force her too much on us, or may try to hand her the win. I'm okay with Cirie winning if it happens, but I don't want it in any way to be given to her. Honestly, I'm kinda clamoring for her to go out in some way she hasn't gone yet.
Ozzy Lusth - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, South Pacific, Game Changers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
Just... why? I don't quite get it. On Game Changers, we saw he had physically declined and could no longer dominate challenges. That was filmed 9 years before 50 will film. So Ozzy will have to rely on his social and strategic game. IF he gets to the end, I could see it, but he'd have to get to the end. Also, since he got into the adult entertainment industry, I'm surprised they wanted him back. Hmm.
Coach Wade - Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains, South Pacific
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 2
Coach is such a great character, even in his 50s, I'm sure he'll bring something to the show. I wonder who he will say is the "dragon" of this season. There are a lot of choices. And honestly, it'd be smart for a lot of the newer players to bring him along as a potential FTC goat, like Sophie did in SP. I don't think Coach's chances of winning are a "1", as if he plays a similar game to SP and owns up his game at the end (unlike what he did that season), he has a shot... I guess.
Aubry Bracco - Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Edge of Extinction
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 4
Typically, someone fairly smart (often a woman) wins these All-Star-type seasons, like Amber in All-Stars, Parvati in Micronesia, and Sandra in HvV. Aubry could be that this season. Is the fourth time the charm? And yes, I don't really need to see her play again, but it is what it is. I just think she's really going to fade into the background with larger names taking more focus.
Chrissy Hofbeck - Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
The show definitely "owes" Chrissy due to the stupid twist of forced fire-making that surprised the cast of that season. I believe Jeff when he says it was planned (and not just put in because Ben was in danger), but I also believe he likely told Chrissy after the season how he probably felt bad with the way it played out and promised her a chance on a returning player season due to that. Otherwise, her inclusion feels... a bit out of place. She may get purpled, as I think she's one of the less interesting characters on this cast.
Christian Hubicki - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 5
Chances of winning: 3
I have been clamoring for his return for years. Thank goodness. I think Christian's chances are somewhere in the middle. He'll definitely have to keep his threat level low enough into the merge, should he make it that far. If he plays a great game and gets to the end, I could see it. It would have to be very similar to Cochran's game in Caramoan. But the problem is, I don't see him making it to the end.
Angelina Keeley - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 2
It's hard to rank FTC losers higher than a 2 on chances of winning. The only person to win AFTER losing at a FTC is Boston Rob. But I'm fairly excited to see Angelina back. I worry, however, that she won't be as engaging, funny, or meme-worthy. I really hope she tries to negotiate something with Jeff, and the show would be smart to open that opportunity.
Mike White - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 1
Mike is a millionaire already, so he's not going to win. He would have to play the greatest game we've ever seen. However, he may be worth a few funny moments on the show. I just wasn't clamoring to see him, and we know he only got back on due to his friendship with Jeff, and how Jeff very likely told him he'd be on the next non-winners returning players season.
Rick Devens - Edge of Extinction
How much I want to see: 5
Chances of winning: 3
Dude was made for TV, and I'm excited to see him back. He's kept in touch with the show, being the co-host of the On Fire podcast for a season. Like Christian, I'll be rooting for him and hope to see him go far, but I'm worried about his chances of getting to the end.
Jonathan Young - 42
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 1
Yes, I am putting Jonathan's chances of winning at a 1. He has little to no social/strategic game, as we saw on 42. Is there a chance he has some on 50? Sure, but there's no way it'll be enough for him to win. His best shot would be to absolutely dominate the individual challenges and be likable enough along the way to win. But the moment he doesn't win one, he's gone. I'll still be stoked to see him dominate challenges, and whoever gets him on their tribe is going to be very lucky.
Emily Flippen - 45
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 3
She can make good points and I think if she gets to the end in 45 against anyone except Dee, she likely wins. I'm also surprised to see her, as I know she said on social media shortly after 45, that she likely wouldn't play again. Well, I guess we all have to eat our words at some point. There are certain players I know she won't like, such as Coach, Q, and Jonathan, and she's very likely to have someone like that on her starting tribe.
Dee Valladares - 45
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
I almost wanted to put Dee's chances at a 1, but Sandra pulled off the back-to-back wins, and they have similar games, so I could see it. But man, I wish they hadn't cast winners. It'll be interesting to see how she downplays it. I could see her being an early target, or make it very far. High variance player to say the least.
Quintavius "Q" Burdette - 46
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 1
Like Coach, Q is such a great character for TV. I cannot see him winning, however. His problem is that I don't think he'd be taken seriously enough. He's kind of like the male Angelina that way. But he is going to have some interesting interactions with people, I can almost guarantee that.
Charlie Davis - 46
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 3
Charlie is the young white male who's come the closest to winning in the New Era, technically losing by a single vote. I don't think he'll be considered a threat, which is good for him. I wonder if he'll find another Maria on 50, perhaps Jenna, Chrissy, or heck, even Cirie. I'd be down for any of those duos.
Tiffany Ervin - 46
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 3
I'm really perplexed by this one. There are plenty of African-American women in the New Era to choose from, and they go with... Tiff. Here's a list I'd personally rather see: Shan, Drea, Lauren, and Sai, and Star. All to me are either better players or characters. Tiff is a well-rounded Survivor player, but I don't think she excels at anything. Perhaps she'll be the Wentworth of the season and blossom more of a player and character.
Genevieve Mushaluk - 47
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 4
I was a bit surprised by this pick, mostly because Gen was purpled in the pre-merge on her season. I really like her chances, but I worry because of the All-Star cast that she'll get purpled again. If she wins, they better not. There are so many threats that she could sneak by and be the Parvati/Amber of the season.
Kyle Fraser - 48
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 1
Like... why? I don't dislike Kyle at all. As a character, he was mid. Not boring, but not the most engaging, either. As a player, well, he just won, so why? Kyle ties Jenna (6 and 8) and JT (18 and 20) as the players who returned most quickly after winning. Neither of them did particularly well on their returning seasons, although Jenna left of her own accord. I cannot see Kyle doing well, and his target as a winner will either carry him as a goat or be a target for him at some point.
Joe Hunter - 48
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
I just finished his season, so I'm not exactly clamoring to see him back at the moment, especially considering he wasn't the most interesting character. Will he find another Eva this season? There aren't many options for someone of that archetype. I could see him trying to Godfather his way through the season but be on the outs at some point, like Boston Rob was on WaW. He's got almost no shot.
Kamilla Karthigesu - 48
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 4
Yes, I actually want to see Kamilla back, but I wasn't counting on it with Kyle. They'll likely be put on different starting tribes, however, but if they both make it to the merge, Kyle better do everything in his power to help her. Although I could definitely see if they both make the merge, that putting a target on both of their backs. But Kamilla is one of the smarter players in recent history. I could see it. If she did win, she would tie Jeremy Collins (29-31) in the quickest return from the game to a winning season. Boston Rob also won two seasons after he played, but his winning game was his fourth time playing.
And there are two players on 49 who are also on 50, who I did see who they are, but I won't spoil it here. But at this point, I would give each of their "want to see" scores a 1 and a chances of winning also a 1, because no one has won any season playing back-to-back.
And as previously promised, here are 5 duos I'm excited to see interact:
- Christian and Kamilla
Or Christian with anyone smart. I want to see them decode a really tough puzzle together. That'd be fun.
- Coach and Q
Can you imagine the chaos? I bet Coach will make Q his dragon if the opportunity arises.
- Colby and Jonathan
The OG challenge beast and the New Era challenge beast. I know Jonathan must look up to Colby, so this would be cool to see. I know Jonathan is good friends with Boston Rob, so this is a natural fit.
- Cirie and Devens
Or Charlie, Christian, really any likable younger man. I bet she'll bond with someone like that.
- Aubry and Emily
I bet they will form an instant connection if given the chance. Let's hope they are.
And lastly, just for organization's sake, here's everyone ranked by their chances of winning:
1's:
Stephanie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Mike White
Jonathan Young
Q Burdette
Kyle Fraser
2's:
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Colby Donaldson
Ozzy Lusth
Coach Wade
Chrissy Hofbeck
Angelina Keeley
Dee Valladares
Joe Hunter
3's:
Christian Hubicki
Rick Devens
Emily Flippen
Charlie Davis
Tiffany Ervin
4's:
Cirie Fields
Aubry Bracco
Genevieve Mushaluk
Kamilla Karthigesu
And I did not give out any 5's. Well, it's hard to figure out what each player's threat levels are going to be like coming into this. And I didn't really want to hand out any 5's because that's basically giving away my winner pick. Anyway, I'll come back and add the players from 49 once that is over, and probably do another post or two about this cast before the season even airs.
Friday, April 18, 2025
My Votes in Each Round of Survivor 50's Fan Voting
Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans (Lame title, IMO) has started its online voting as they're going to allow fans to have an impact on certain game elements. A lot are cosmetic, but some will impact how the showrunners and producers run the game. Here are the rounds and votes so far, what I said for each, and why.
I'm here during and after Survivor 50, so I'm chiming in with what the result ended up being and my thoughts.
ROUND 1
Rice or no rice?
I said: Rice
I think Survivors play a more intelligent and well-thought-out game when they aren't nearly starving to death. Operation Italy doesn't happen in 47 without the food reward. Give them rice, I say. Yes, I like Survivor to be tough, but this still allows the game to be tough. They had rice in S2: The Australian Outback, one of the toughest seasons. It also adds a potential layer of drama with someone maybe eating too much rice, them using up too much too soon, or someone not cooking the rice well.
Result: No rice
I find it hard to believe this lost, but I guess there are enough Survivor fans out there that want the show to be tough and not enough that realize that gameplay is better when they have SOME sort of food.
Forced Fire-Making at Final 4?
I said: No Fire-Making
I wish Jeff understood that by introducing Final 4 Firemaking, it only made it so that the threats were taken out even sooner, and we got less time with them. Some say Ben only won HHH because of this, but I say he only won it because of all the idols he kept finding. So if Jeff wants big names like Ben to get to the end, allow Idols to be good through the Final 4. Also, if you're a good enough player, you can stay under the radar, and you'll be a part of the majority at Final 4. Allow firemaking if there's a deadlock at Final 4, sure, but let them have a chance to vote first.
Live Reunion in Los Angeles or Fiji Aftershow?
I said: Live Reunion in Los Angeles
This is a no-brainer. The Fiji aftershow is downright cruel to the final tribal council losers. At least give them time to reflect on their game and prepare themselves for what to say if they lose. Plus, the live reunion allows us to get all players in on it, not just the ones who made the jury. I'm tired of the pre-jurors getting snubbed.
Result: Live Reunion in LA
It hasn't happened yet as of me writing this, but it has been confirmed 50 will have a live reunion and reading of the votes. Thank goodness.
Tribe Colors
I said: Orange, Teal, and Purple
First off, *sigh*, it looks like it's going to be another three tribe season. No way one of the three is the merge tribe. Anyway, it was between this and Blue, Orange, and Green for me. I chose the one I did because we don't see teal enough as a tribe color. But the remaining two options each contained colors that have been used 3+ times in the New Era. My second choice would've been Blue, Orange, and Green, because those are my three favorite colors. I guess I'd also be okay with Red, Green, and Yellow, since those were the colors in the first returning player season ever (All-Stars, Season 8), so it would pay homage to that.
Result: Orange, Teal, and Purple
I'm glad this one, not that it was a big decision or anything.
ROUND 2
Final 4 Challenge
I said: Simmotion
What can I say, I love Simmotion. If you don't know, it's the one where you have to constantly catch the balls out of the chutes and put them back on top as they make their way down a mechanism, and you slowly add more balls to it, increasing the difficulty. It really does a good job of showing which Survivors still have the best focus in the game. Plus, it's a classic going back to (at least) S18: Tocantins. I decided against the Final 4 challenge from 46 because pre-game alliances could affect whether someone decides to help another player here. They could abandon their puzzle and help the other player know when to catch their ball. I don't think people want to see that. The third option looked way too similar to dozens of other new era challenges: an obstacle course with a puzzle at the end. Easy one to rule out.
Advantages: How much power?
I said: Minimal power
There is a fine line between too many advantages and not enough. I think the consensus on it is less than what Jeff and production think, which is why I chose "minimal" power. Also, let the players play. They will be legends of the game, after all. And yes, a lot of great game moments have come from an idol or advantage being involved, but typically not multiple, and typically it's a situation not too convoluted or complex to understand. Lastly, there's a good chance a lot of viewers will be returning to the show for the first time in years, likely due to a returning player they like, so they really shouldn't overcomplicate the game for anyone returning after not watching the past dozen seasons or more.
Result: Dynamic Power
I wish my choice had won, and I find it hard to believe I'm in the minority (again). I've been listening to podcasts and seen videos of people who have been confused by some of the game elements, and this is exactly why I voted for minimal power. Should've made it easy for potential first-time viewers. Now they'll be turned off because the show is too complicated. I know I would be.
Tribe Swap or No Tribe Swap?
I said: Tribe Swap
This one I debated on. I don't like how the showrunners have only used a tribe swap when a tribe has struggled in the New Era. It should be more random. If they keep it up, players may throw a challenge to avoid a tribe swap. But maybe they want that. Anyway, tribe swaps add a layer of complexity to the game, and especially for a returning player season, we will want to see as many interactions between players as possible. If this were a newbie season we were voting on, I'd likely say "no swap" since I like to see tribal lines tested, not blurred. But again, returning player season. Got to have as many interactions as possible.
Result: Tribe Swap
I'm glad my choice won, but it wasn't that great or had that big of an impact. At least this way, there was more fluidity post-merge, although the original Cila tribe members sure have lasted awhile post-merge.
ROUND 3
Immunity Necklace Design
I said: Option B (Bird and wingspan make up half of the necklace)
Option A isn't bad, but minus the bird emblem, it looks like dozens of other immunity necklaces. Option B, however, is pretty sick. The literal wingspan of the bird makes up half the necklace. You would look like you literally have a mythical bird on your chest when wearing it. Whereas the other one is relegated to a round emblem on the bottom of it.
Result: Option B
Again, purely a cosmetic choice for us, but I'm glad the far superior option won.
Tribe Supplies
I said: Give them Tribe Supplies
This goes with the rice, so I'm sure people will typically have the same answer for this as they did for rice. I said to give them supplies. The "sweat vs. savvy" and the one-on-ones in recent seasons have been underwhelming and a waste of time, frankly. Don't make whether or not they have a pot or machete yet or flint a part of the game. Let the players be the focus. Also, why even have this be a part of the game if they don't even bother to show the tribes struggling when they don't have supplies?
Result: No supplies
Why, people? The sweat vs. savvy challenge Coach, Ozzy, and Q did was pretty dumb. Yes, it stirred up some beef between Ozzy and Coach, but it also resulted in Q losing his vote and not getting to vote all game. Boo!
Twists
I said: Keep them straightforward/rare
I'm a big fan of old school Survivor. New School has had its fun with twists, but I fear introducing twists could leave older players in the dust, strategically. Like in Winners at War, I don't want to see all the old school players go early. Give them a chance. Keep the game simple and give them a chance to run their game without having twists they wouldn't have had to worry about on their original season(s).
Result: Keep the game shifting
Just... why? This vote resulted in the "Blood Moon", which was an absolute flop. It also resulted in the dynamic duos twist at the Final 13, and I didn't like how much they deviated from traditional Survivor. Why should someone be punished for being in a group with a terrible player, ESPECIALLY when they didn't know what the pairs meant when they chose them? To me, that wasn't a great twist, either.
ROUND 4
Idols or No Idols?
I said: No Idols
A bit disappointing this final round of voting only had one thing for us to vote on. I voted "No Idols", but I could've been convinced to vote the other way. I voted "No Idols" to basically spite Jeff and the producers. The way they word some of these, they think we can't have a good season of Survivor anymore without a bunch of twists and idols and advantages. But here's the other thing: I'd rather have a season with no idols than a season with too many idols. I think this vote will be a bit close and I ultimately think there being Idols will win, but I just wanted to show Jeff and production more of us want a less twist and Idol-heavy season than he may think.
Result: Idols
Of course. Why wouldn't it be? I wasn't getting my hopes up on this one, but it would've been funny with no idols this season. I doubt they would've allowed that result, honestly.
Overall tally: 4/9 votes went my way. And of the votes that actually affected the game (removing cosmetic choices or where the votes are read), I only got 1/6 to go my way. One out of freaking six. It started to lead me to believe the votes were fixed/rigged, since I have a good pulse on the Survivor fanbase. I feel like had the twists all gone my way, we would've had a much better season.
Tuesday, February 11, 2025
My Survivor 50 Cast (Mostly New Era)
Survivor 50 is scheduled to air around this time next year. Crazy. With that said, I thought I'd put together a cast that I would use for Survivor 50. I'll take into account who production seems to like, and who doesn't want to play again (won't cast them). Here are some ground rules I put together for myself:
- No more than 2 returning players for one season
- Only using casts from seasons 35-48. 34 was a returning players season, 33 and earlier have at least had a chance to return so far. 48 has not aired yet, but more on that later.
- Trying to cast 1 or more from each of the above seasons. However, one season, 39, did not make the cut. I think Survivor at this point is okay with not casting from EVERY season, especially considering what 39 is known for.
- Follow the diversity mandate, meaning half the cast has to be people of color (non-white).
- No winners allowed. I considered this a "Second Chance" type cast.
With that said, I'm going to list the players, why I chose them, and who was close to making it but ultimately didn't. And then at the end, I'll put together the tribes so that there aren't any players from the same original season on the same tribe.
Survivor 35 (Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers): Chrissy Hofbeck
Only Chrissy makes the cast from here. She's still talked about with how well she did at challenges, and Survivor owes it to her to give her another chance after how they screwed her over with the surprise fire-making twist that allowed Ben to have another chance. There wasn't really anyone else here I considered. I'd like to see Devon Pinto again, but he said he'd only play again with his mom on a "Blood vs. Water" type season. Ryan Ulrich loses out to a nerd from two seasons later.
Survivor 36 (Ghost Island): Dominic Abbate
Dominic is the only player to lose on a tie-breaking final vote. How can he not be brought back? The only other player I somewhat considered was Michael Yerger, who I liked but likely has been forgotten about at this point. He could be a dark-horse candidate, but the problem is, there's already a ton of white males to choose from.
Survivor 37 (David vs. Goliath): Christian Hubicki and Angelina Keeley
Christian remains one of the game's biggest fan favorites. Imagine him dissecting strategy with some other All-Stars. Angelina comes back solely for the memes but also because Jeff loves her. Let's hope for another Natalie/coat situation or another rice negotiation from Angelina. I considered Gabby Pascuzzi and John Hennigan, but Christian and Angelina beat them out.
Survivor 38 (Edge of Extinction): Rick Devens
How could he not be brought back? He was so close to a win, he's great TV, and he's clearly liked by production as he was a co-host of the On Fire podcast. I also considered Victoria Baamonde, who was a last-minute cut because I needed to abide by the diversity mandate.
Survivor 39 (Island of the Idols): No one
As mentioned above, no one made it from this cast. Like I said, I think production would be okay to completely ignore this season. I considered Elaine, who was closest. I really like Janet, but she was involved with the Dan Spilo incident, albeit not in a bad way, but I know production wants to steer very clear of it. She's also a bit on the older side.
Survivor 41: Shantel "Shan" Smith
She has her own theme song. I can see production incorporating that into their promos for 50. How could they not? She's made some comments that I don't think production really liked, but she's still talked about in Survivor circles. I considered Ricard, but there are too many males that I'd want to see more than him.
Survivor 42: Omar Zaheer
I could be wrong, but I think they're more likely to cast strategic and social masterminds rather than physical players, which is why I chose Omar over his Taku tribemate, Jonathan. I'd love to see Jonathan beast challenges again, but we know he's got zero shot to actually win the game against all-star strategists. I also considered Mike and Lindsay, who fell short as well.
Survivor 43: Jesse Lopez and Karla Cruz Godoy
I so badly wanted both Jesse AND Cody, but I couldn't fit Cody. Maybe production can. But at least I have Jesse, who is my personal favorite strategist of the New Era. I also included Karla, who I think could learn and improve upon her first game, which started very strong but fizzled out toward the end. Both also fulfill the diversity mandate.
Survivor 44: Carolyn Wiger and Lauren Harpe
This is the only time I cast two of the same gender from the same season. Carolyn is an obvious choice. Production might not like her ties to Carson or her appearance on The Traitors (on a rival network), but she is on the New Era Mount Rushmore of characters. And Lauren might seem like a weird pick, which it maybe is, but she was a dark horse on her season who other players said would likely win if she gets to the end (at least against anyone except Yam-Yam). I also considered Carson, but production doesn't love him anymore. Plus, I don't need more white males.
Survivor 45: Kaleb Gebrewold and Kellie Nalbandian
Weird how my two picks from this season were the first two jury members. Kaleb was a fan favorite, had a legendary shot in the dark play, and likely fares better when there are other threats he's playing with. Kellie might also seem like an odd pick, but she had a pretty legendary blindside, and the Survivor community and production seem to love her. She's got a good mind for the game, which is what led to her ouster. She could definitely showcase her strategic chops on a second try.
Survivor 46: Q Burdette
I wanted to include a second, but there was no room. Q had to make it, being the legendary character he is. It'd be a big mistake not to bring him back. I considered Charlie, but as I've said, there were too many white males ahead of him. I also considered Venus, Hunter, and Tiffany.
Survivor 47: Andy Rueda and Genevieve Mushaluk
I'm pretty sure Jeff hinted to already asking Andy to come back for 50. So he has to make it. Gen, meanwhile, was such a great female powerhouse and I think could shine on an all-star cast. Sure, she didn't get the greatest edit in the world early on, but a lot of great female players didn't.
Survivor 48: One male, one female
In order to make my complete cast, one man and one woman from this season makes it onto 50. I'm not sure who. I'm not going to even fathom a guess at this point. But in order to abide by the diversity mandate, one has to be a person of color. I'll update here once 48 is at least close to over. If I don't like two people enough to be on 50, I'll go back and add someone from a prior season.
My actual picks from 48: David Kinne and Kamilla Karthigesu
So my picks from this season are David and Kamilla. I know the rumors are Joe and Sai, but I think I'd rather see David and Kamilla. David would certainly learn from his first game, and it'd be fun to watch him dominate challenges again. And Kamilla played a great game but just fell short due to losing at fire-making.
Survivor 49: No one
49 will air in the fall of 2025, and I feel like that's not enough time for production to gauge the reaction of the cast there. Plus, they probably want to avoid back-to-back seasons, although they've done that several times before when the seasons were 39 days. But the cast of 50 is very likely going to be announced before we see 49 (or at least, finish 49). So the players from 49 will have to hope for a returning players season after 50 that they can get a second chance on.
So that makes 18 players. I know a lot of people think they might up the amount of players to 20 for Season 50, but they seem so infatuated with the three tribe format. I don't see it changing, even for 50. Here is my 18-player, 3-tribe cast, keeping duplicates from the same season on different tribes and trying to balance them out for challenge strength:
RED TRIBE
Dominic Abbate, 36
Jesse Lopez, 43
David Kinne, 48
Angelina Keely, 37
Shan Smith, 41
Kellie Nalbandian, 45
BLUE TRIBE
Rick Devens, 38
Omar Zaheer, 42
Kaleb Gebrewold, 45
Karla Cruz Godoy, 43
Carolyn Wiger, 44
Genevieve Mushaluk, 47
GREEN TRIBE
Christian Hubicki, 37
Q Burdette, 46
Andy Rueda, 47
Chrissy Hofbeck, 35
Lauren Harpe, 44
Kamilla Karthigesu, 48
Oh man, what a cast! I'll be interested to see how this compares to the actual cast of 50. And again, once 48 is over or close to over, I will put in my two picks from that season here.
I made a Brant Steele simulation of this season. Here it is to simulate. https://brantsteele.com/survivor/32/r.php?c=G53zz0Xh
Friday, January 31, 2025
Survivor 48 Preview and Predictions
Survivor 48 is a bit less than a month away, and with the official cast release, it's time for my cast review and predictions. Like I've done in the New Era so far, I will give each player two comparables of who they remind me of, and then give them a placement I think they'll fall into with a range of 6 spots, such as 12th to 7th, 18th to 12th, etc. Last season I only got 6/18 after routinely getting at least 8 or 9 right. So I have to return to form this season. I'll organize them alphabetically by first name so I can find them easier later on. I'll be updating these as they get voted out to see if I'm right or wrong; those updates will be in BOLD. Unlike last season, I'm not really going to watch videos of them ahead of time. Just gonna go off of Entertainment Weekly's article about it done by Dalton Ross, which you can see here. Also, I will color code these by tribe. There is CIVA, LAGI, and VULA. And lastly, I'll put together a boot order given my placements for them at the end of all this. Without further ado, here's the cast:
Bianca Roses, 33, PR Consultant from Arlington, VA
Comparables: Moriah Gaynor, Sarah Wade
Bianca is one of the most high-variance players this season. She could be an early boot or make it to the finale, or anywhere in-between. Then I look at her tribe. Oh yeah, that's my pick for the disaster tribe. Therefore, I think I have to say Bianca is an early boot. Possibly a mergatory or earlier boot, just like Moriah and Sarah were. Sometimes tribe placement is just awful luck, and I think that'll be the case for Bianca.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 14th. Oddly her tribe was strong, but she got swapped to a bad one and lost her vote due to chance. All luck here.
Cedrek McFadden, 45, Surgeon from Greenville, SC
Comparables: Rocksroy Bailey, Josh Wilder
I chose Rocksroy because of the glasses and Josh because of them both being surgeons. Neither Josh nor Rocksroy made it terribly far, so I'm leaning towards the same with Cedrek. He seems to check most boxes, but I just have this feeling he'll either not be in the majority alliance or he'll be blindsided. If he tries to assume too much of a leadership role and becomes a bit too bossy, the best I could see for him is a Bruce-type run in 45. But that's unlikely. I don't think Green will be a disaster tribe, but I do think they'll be going to multiple pre-merge tribals, with Cedrek being one of the casualties.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th
CORRECT, 11th. He was not in the majority alliance like I predicted, but he did not go pre-merge. I like how I said "I don't think Green will be a disaster tribe". Whoopsie!
Charity Nelms, 34, Flight Attendant from St. Petersburg, FL
Comparables: Hannah Rose, Sierra Wright
I like how Charity says she doesn't quit, which is more than I can say for her first comparable. But I don't like how she says her hidden talent is singing. We saw how Soda's singing in 46 got under some of her tribemates' skins. I'm not high on any of the women on the Orange tribe, but if I had to pick one, I guess I'd pick Charity. If she can form a tight duo or trio with any of the men on her tribe, I can see her getting far. But I do see Charity becoming a casualty of a vote somewhere along the way.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
WRONG, 13th. I actually overestimated her. She was, however, in between Hannah's and Sierra's placements. I should have gone for that.
Chrissy Sarnowki, 55, Fire Lieutenant, South Side of Chicago, IL
Comparables: Chrissy Hofbeck, Julie Wolfe
Chrissy Hofbeck is a comparable because of the name and Julie because she was also a female firefighter. Anyway, Chrissy is this season's token older woman, so we know a losing finalist is certainly a possible spot for her. She could also be an early boot. But I think she'll be on a strong enough tribe and make a connection. Someone: Kevin, Mitch, Kamilla, Charity, will want her as their #2. She's making it fairly far, but not winning.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 10th. So close, too! Chrissy just got a tad too aggressive. I thought she'd be passive and coast to the end as a zero vote finalist, but nope.
David Kinner, 39, Stunt Performer from Buena Park, CA
Comparables: Jonathan Young, Nick Maiorano
David is definitely a physical tank like Jonathan, but maybe not as much of a tank. It should be enough to carry him to the merge, unless he's bad socially, which I can't rule out for him. But here's the thing: If I had to bet on one player NOT winning this game.... I think I'd say David. Either him or Thomas (see below). Which is odd, because David would be one of the ones I'm most sure makes the merge. He will have a ginormous bullseye on his back post-merge. Even if the group consensus is that David isn't a threat, he'll then not be looked at positively enough, even if he gets to the Final Tribal Council.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
CORRECT, 9th. If David had a decent social game, which it looked like pre-merge he did, he could've won. But guys like this always ended up rubbing people the wrong way... eventually.
Eva Erickson, 24, PhD Candidate from Providence, RI
Comparables: Ashley Nolan, Noelle Lambert
Eva's a spunky former hockey player who is open about her autism. It'll likely be a reason to root for her, like Noelle's disability was. Physically, she reminds me of Ashley Nolan, and I believe both Ashley and Noelle were mid-jury boots. I think Eva will be, too. She's only 24, so she may get taken advantage of at some point. I'd be mildly surprised to see her as a pre-merge boot, but I wouldn't rule it out. I mean, she's on my predicted disaster tribe. Possibly a casualty around the mergatory, as well.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
WRONG, 2nd. I was wrong about Eva, I guess. She ended up getting the 2nd most votes at the FTC, something I certainly didn't see happening, even up to the Finale.
Joe Hunter, 45, Fire Captain from West Sacramento, CA
Comparables: Danny Massa, Mike Turner
Sacramento, CA represent! Sorry, my GF's from there. Anyway, Joe is yet another firefighter in the New Era, hence the comparables. I expect Joe to be kept around for his strength pre-merge, but then once the merge hits, the target gets put on his back, and I can't see Joe being one to shed it. I also can't see him going on a crazy immunity/idol run. He may be a fan favorite (possibly Facebook's favorite), but winning this game, Joe likely is not. As I state perhaps a few times, I think Purple will be a disaster tribe yet again, so Joe has a 50/50 shot at being one of the pre-merge boots, roughly.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th
WRONG, 3rd. And oddly, it looked like he was going to win going into the Finale, so he should've been even further away from my prediction.
Justin Pioppi, 29, Pizzeria Manager from Winthrop, MA
Comparables: Cody Assenmacher, Kyle Ostwald
Justin will likely be at least somewhat of a fan favorite. But will he be a favorite amongst the castaways? Maybe not as much. He's not only worked but managed in the service industry so he knows how to handle tense situations. I'm sure he's had to calm down an angry customer or two. I'd be surprised if he was an early boot. In fact, I think Justin will blend into the background well enough to sneak on by to near the end. But will he get there? We'll just have to wait and see.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 16th. Guess I'm surprised that he's an early boot. But you put him on Civa or Lagi, and it's a different story.
Kamilla Karthigesu, 31, Software Engineer from Foster City, CA
Comparables: Jem Hussain-Adams, Swati Goel
I hate to say it, but since Natalie Anderson, women of South Asian descent do not typically do well on Survivor. I don't see it changing with Kamilla. She may surprise me and get fairly far due to tribe strength and/or a strong alliance, but I'd be surprised to see her in the finale. She seems funny, but also easily irritated. Almost like a Venus from 46.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
WRONG, 4th. Our fire-making casualty. She did end up surprising me and got fairly far due to a strong tribe/alliance. And she did make the finale. Wow, wrong again.
Kevin Leung, 34, Finance Manager from Livermore, CA
Comparables: Austin Li Coon, Owen Knight
Yet another Asian male oozing with charisma. I gotta say, I have a good feeling about this one. For one, he was the most memorable castaway from the 48 promo that aired at the end of 47. He seems like a guy no one hates. Like the kind of guy who hears you're going on vacation and offers to water your plants and pick up your mail for you. That's why Kevin is in huge consideration to be my winner pick for 48. Something seriously must go wrong if Kevin is an early boot. And he seems to me like a player a lot of others will gravitate towards.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
WRONG, 17th. My goodness how wrong I was.
Kyle Fraser, 31, Attorney from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Rome Cooney, Nick Brown
Fortunately for Kyle, the similarities to Rome are just physical. But he personality-wise reminds me more of Nick Brown, another African-American male in the field of law. Kyle seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and as an attorney, he should be willing to be ruthless if need be. However, when it comes down to it, can I see him winning a jury vote? I can't say I can. He seems too bland and not charming enough. Possible losing finalist?
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 1st. Dude... I was so close! And honestly... a person with a better FTC performance relegates Kyle to runner up, which is where I had him. Dag nabbit.
Mary Zheng, 31, Substance Abuse Counselor from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Lucy Huang, Carolyn Wiger
I chose Carolyn since they are in the same profession, if that wasn't obvious. It's hard to pinpoint Mary. I see her as another high-variance player. It really depends on if she's on the outs early or if she joins a majority alliance. I think she joins a majority alliance. I could see her joining a group with Kevin, Stephanie, and/or Sai. Really anyone on her tribe. I think she becomes a mid-merge boot if I had to guess.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
CORRECT, 7th. She didn't ever join a majority alliance, not for good, anyway. But she was a mid-merge boot (at least towards the end of the mid-merge boots).
Mitch Guerra, 34, PE Coach from Waco, TX
Comparables: Sean Edwards, Sol Yi
Fortunately for Mitch, I don't see him essentially quitting like Sean did. That wouldn't be a good message for the students in his PE Class. Although Sean is a principal... Anyway, I see him being on the outs early, like Sol. Fortunately for Sol, he was able to navigate to the merge but not much further. I'm going to say Mitch might not even make the merge. Orange is usually a pretty strong tribe, but I could see Mitch being on the outs or being unlucky. He seems like the kind of guy that has a smile on his face even when backstabbed and blindsided.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
WRONG, 5th. He was in good spirits despite being the presumptive boot. He did make the merge and was fairly lucky in the game.
Saiounia "Sai" Hughley, 30, Marketing Professional from Simi Valley, CA
Comparables: Soda Thompson, Sabiyah Broderick
Yet another "S" African-American female, and I think Sai will have around the same placements as Soda or Sabiyah. Somewhere between late pre-merge to early merge. She just seems like she'll come off in a similar way. I can't see her pulling a Maryanne like she wants to.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
CORRECT, 12th. And she did place near Soda (who was 11th). She survived longer than I thought she would after seeing the first few episodes, though!
Shauhin Davari, 38, Debate Professor from Costa Mesa, CA
Comparables: Randen Montalvo, Ronnie Bardah
I'm going out on a huge limb here, preparing to be wrong. But I think Shauhin will flame out early. I don't know if it's the overconfidence or the beard or perhaps being on the disaster tribe (or all of the above), but I think Shauhin's not long for the game like his comparables weren't. Again, I could be so incredibly wrong, but my gut is saying that his tribe makes the merge with at most 3 people. Both Tika and Yanu were purple tribes who made the merge with only 3. But they each contained the winner of the season. But that is not Shauhin. He's more Bhanu than Yam-Yam. *Quick note, I wanted to add this was TheMeranianReview's winner pick (Check him out on YouTube), so one of us is likely going to be very wrong.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
WRONG, 6th. I was incredibly wrong. Shauhin had winner potential. He was more Yam-Yam than Bhanu, and I was wrong. TheMeranianReview was more on track, but his winner pick didn't win, either.
Star Toomey, 28, Sales Expert from Augusta, GA
Comparables: Tiffany Ervin, Katurah Topps
Star is a kooky one, I'll give her that. She's on my disaster tribe pick, so the question is, does she survive it. And I'm gonna say yes. Black females tend to survive them. Shan and Tiffany both survived them. I think Star will. And the good news is those that survive disaster tribes tend to make it far. How far? Time will tell. What I didn't particularly like was that Star said she's an introvert and really shy. That doesn't bode well for a game as social as Survivor. But I think that'll help her fly under the radar. Just a hunch.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 8th. SOO close! Her being an introvert made her not get screen time, but she really became an interesting character post-merge. Dang, just needed her to survive one more vote!
Stephanie Berger, 38, Tech Product Lead from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Molly Byman, Lindsay Dolashewich
I wonder if Stephanie will lie about her age to try to fit in better. She certainly looks like she could pass for younger, unlike a particular 59-year-old last season. Anyway, Stephanie looks affable and has been in both business and teaching professions, so I think she'll be able to find a majority to fit in, perhaps with Mary, Kevin, and Sai. However, I lose confidence in her with the merge. She doesn't seem ruthless enough. But she is saying a lot of the right things.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
WRONG, 18th. It didn't help she was put on one of the worst tribes ever.
Thomas Krottinger, 34, Music Executive from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: Jon Lovett, Mike White
Ah, the successful white male who has no shot of winning. Well, he should be a good narrator at least, for as long as he lasts. So the question is: Is he more Jon Lovett or Mike White? When I look at the tribes and see he's on my pick for the disaster tribe, it's obvious that Thomas is more likely to be Jon Lovett 2.0. I could see him as a losing finalist a 'la Mike White if he's able to survive the pre-merge. But that's a big "if" in the New Era.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 15th. Although, he was a better player than I thought, and he was screwed over by a swap.
All right, now a boot order, based on where I predicted them to finish:
18th: Thomas
17th: Shauhin
16th: Bianca
15th: Cedrek
14th: Sai
13th: Mitch
12th: Joe
11th: Kamilla
10th: Eva
9th: David
8th: Mary
7th: Charity
6th: Stephanie
5th: Justin
4th: Star
3rd: Chrissy
2nd: Kyle
1st: Kevin
My winner pick for Survivor 48 is Kevin! Crazy how he is the first "Kevin" to ever play Survivor. And I think it's a good sign. I think perhaps Kevin and Kyle form a tight duo post-merge, bring in Chrissy, and run the table. So far, my winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 16th, 1st, and 16th. Let's hope I didn't pick another 16th placer.
I have placed actual winners of the season 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), 18th (Gabler), 3rd (Yam-Yam), 9th (Dee), 1st (Kenzie), and 18th (Rachel). Either I rank them very high or I've ranked them last. So, Thomas, you have a shot!
I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range. Any updates will be in BOLD. Hoping to improve upon the paltry 6/18 I got last season. Let's hope for half right again, at least.
TOTAL CORRECT: 6/18
Again, I get 6/18 placements correct. Dang. I used to be good at this! I almost had the winner pick nailed in Kyle, at least. It continues the streak of me ranking the eventual winner of the season either very high or very low, no in-between. I was wrong about Kyle's ally being Chrissy, but instead it was Kamilla. Should've had them switched. Oh well. Let's hope I can get back to close to half right next season.
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