10 Changes Survivor NEEDS to make for Seasons 51 and Up

Obviously, I love the show, "Survivor".  I've gone over how to improve the show before, but this time I want to go over ten changes the show really needs to make post-Season 50.  It'll be another chance for a new era, a fresh start.  Also, these ten changes are ones the show could easily make and most of them wouldn't cost them any more money.  So, here are changes I think most fans would absolutely approve of, in no particular order:

1. Either go back to two tribes at the start, or keep mixing it up
This has been something that hardcore fans have grown tired of.  For nine straight seasons, (41-49), the show started with three tribes of six people.  Why?  Smaller tribes are ok on occasion, but not at the start of every season.  Why can't we have two tribes of eight, nine, or ten people every now and then?  Is that too much to ask?  Jeff needs to get over his obsession with this setup.

2. Quit taking away flint
A minor change, but a necessary change nonetheless.  Part of the punishment of losing a pre-merge challenge is that the losing tribe loses its flint.  That action has only increased the odds of a tribe continuing to lose and falling significantly behind in numbers, creating the dreaded "disaster tribe."  It also adds basically nothing to the entertainment value.  We know they don't have much food.  You don't need to take away flint to make the show look tougher, which it doesn't even do.

3. No mergatory, just merge at different times
We don't need to split people up as part of the merge.  Why, for so long, did they have to "earn" the merge?  For 40 seasons, earning the merge meant surviving enough votes or winning enough tribal challenges to get to the merge stage of the game.  Please revert to that.  They did for 49, so I have high hopes they will for 50 and beyond.  To keep it fresh, merge at different times like they did before 40.  

4. Only split people up post-merge for a reward

Another pet peeve we hardcore Survivor fans have is how they split players up post-merge for not only immunity, but sometimes separate tribal councils.  Too many players have gotten screwed by being put in a group with no allies.  Jeff Probst seems to like it when luck is a major factor in Survivor, but introducing twists like this adds way too much luck to the game.  We don't want to see lucky players win, we want to see GOOD players win.  We can only imagine the great players and winning games we were potentially robbed of in recent seasons because someone got put on a team with few or no allies and they were voted out.

5. Fewer journeys
I initially hated "journeys", when players go off to a separate island to compete for an advantage.  I think I'm okay with them now, in moderation.  I hate seeing them in every pre-merge episode.  I most dislike how they use them to replace separate reward challenges.  Gone are the days when most Survivor episodes were a reward, an immunity, and a tribal council.  I would like it if they could throw in a couple more pre-merge reward challenges and stop combining the reward with immunity every time.  Sometimes, all a struggling tribe needs is to win a reward or challenge of any kind, and it is a lot harder to do if it's always paired with immunity.

6. No forced loss of votes

One of my personal biggest pet peeves of modern Survivor is how easily players lose their votes.  It's especially irksome when the player(s) involved have zero say in whether they lose their vote or not.  Losing their vote to play their shot in the dark?  That's fine.  Lose their vote to get a beware advantage?  Also ok.  They chose it.  Losing your vote because you were selected for a journey?  NOT OK.  Too many players have been screwed over by this.  If you give the players the choice, that's fine.  But do not instantly say they lose their vote and have to "earn" it back.  Again, this is production forcing luck to be a part of the game, which most fans do not like.

7. Give them a small amount of rice at the start
Survivor players used to instantly get rice.  Yes, that was for 39-day seasons, but even for 26-day seasons, not having ANY food really takes a toll on them, and makes them more lethargic and less active with gameplay and strategy.  I even recently saw a comment from Sophi on Season 49 where she said she would have been way more active if she had any food.  You want exciting gameplay, Jeff?  Give them a small amount of food.  Doesn't have to be a lot.  Just enough so they aren't lifeless and have zero energy.

8. Make idols hard to find and introduce idol clues again
Think of the most iconic idol finds in Survivor history.  Yul on Exile Island.  Terry on Exile Island.  Sugar in Gabon.  Russell, without using a clue.  Idols finds were fun to watch when they were very hard to find and typically required a clue to find.  Too often in the New Era, they put them between waist and eye level, and we can see them sticking out of a crevice.  They need to bury them again, or even put them at challenges again.  Just change it up.  The "beware advantage" format is beyond stale.

9. Diversify challenges
I wish I had a nickel for every pre-merge challenge in the New Era that ended in a puzzle or a post-merge challenge in the New Era that was endurance-based.  It seems like the majority of each.  Challenges used to be my favorite part of every episode because of how unique and diverse each was.  I know Jeff has stated they want to stay away from physical challenges that could result in injury, such as Sumo at Sea and Smergenbrawl, but there are other challenges in Survivor's history I would love to see return that pose no risk of physical harm.  How about the memory challenges from Amazon or Worlds Apart?  Or how about the memory math challenge from Tocantins that Stephen dominated?  Or how about the knowledge-based games that have players holding a cube and using that for their answers?  Jeff is so insistent on every challenge having a physical and puzzle element early on, and an endurance element in the post-merge.  Change it up, Jeff, please!

10. Cast from more backgrounds
I'm very happy Survivor is casting more diversely, ethnically.  However, that has caused them to cast too many people in white-collar cushy jobs and not enough blue-collar "struggling to make ends meet" jobs.  Where are the construction workers?  Where are the waiters and waitresses?  Where are the cashiers and stockers?  I know those kinds of people apply too, so why are they being avoided?  And while I'm at it, a large chunk of New Era players are from two regions in the U.S.: California and the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.  I would wager around 40%, if not more, New Era players are from those two regions.  Where are the people from the Midwest, the South Atlantic, and Appalachia?  How about the Pacific Northwest, my home region?  And lastly, while I am still on the topic of casting, I would suggest they cast fewer super fans and more casual fans.  Survivor actually had some of its best seasons when casting recruited.  Casting itself has gotten stale, and the head of casting, Jesse Tannenbaum, NEEDS to have a different approach.  Not everyone has to be a good storyteller.  When everyone is a decent storyteller, nobody sticks out, and the season is not memorable.

BONUS: Let things speak for themselves rather than having the player narrate in a confessional
Survivor editors/producers need to focus more on showing us rather than telling.  I feel like every advantage/idol find, and every journey is narrated by the person involved, and I'd rather just have the moment speak for itself.  Watch past seasons.  They allow moments to speak for themselves, and only add a confessional when it adds to the moment.  But in modern Survivor, they have the player narrate in the confessional.  I'd much rather have them do the journey or find the idol, then, after it's over, talk about it, rather than narrating it and explaining it as it happens.

What's Wrong with the Seahawks?

The Seahawks are 4-5, which isn't too bad, but when you consider they started 3-0 and have lost 5 of 6, and four straight at home, you realize there are some problems with the team.  Clearly, they were buoyed by their easy start, which involved facing: A rookie QB in his first game, a rebuilding Patriots team they barely beat, and a Dolphins team on their 3rd string QB.  Most competent teams would go 3-0 in that stretch, just as the Seahawks did.  But when they finally started facing teams built to win now, they started losing.  They even lost to a Giants team at home that still only has one other win, over the struggling Browns.

So, what's the issue?  On offense, it's pretty clear the offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL.  Geno Smith has one of the highest pressure rates and total number of pressures in the NFL, and it's not because he's always holding onto the ball too long, although I will admit he does that on occasion.  But I think the bigger issue is not being able to establish a running game.  To establish a running game, you need four things: A good running back, an offensive line that can create holes, a run-blocking scheme and coaching that will allow this to happen, and an offensive coordinator who will not abandon the run too quickly.  The Seahawks have the first one.  But they are largely missing the other three.  The offensive line has been unable to open holes in the A or B gaps.  Most of Kenneth Walker's big runs have been outside the tackles, where he has used his speed to get around the edge.  The run-blocking scheme also seems to be largely not there.  The Seahawks recently faced a 4th and 1 in Overtime against the Rams and could not get one yard.  And lastly, I'm not sure Ryan Grubb is the right fit for an offense that needs to be balanced in today's NFL.  He does seem to abandon the run after it doesn't work in game.

But that's just the offense.  The defense is actually not performing too poorly.  They've certainly shown to be dominant at times.  But they are inconsistent and lacking a bit of discipline.  I think, with time, they can develop into a dominant unit more consistently.  Perhaps not "Legion of Boom" dominant, but maybe close to it.  The pass rush could be improved, but the run defense seems better.  The pass defense is inconsistent, seemingly dependent on the aerial attack they face.  The defense has some above-average players in Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, and Ernest Jones, but that's about it.  They could use a bit more talent.

I must also talk about starting quarterback Geno Smith.  Geno has a lot of people calling him to be benched.  I can see where they're coming from, but our other option is Sam Howell, who led the league in interceptions last season.  Sure, a change at quarterback can spark an offense, but it can also cause division.  Geno has a lot of close friends on the team, namely receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, and his benching would certainly upset them, especially if it's somewhat unwarranted.  We'd also be asking a second-year quarterback to be successful when the Seahawks, as I stated above, have one of the worst pressure rates allowed in the NFL.  It's very likely the people who are calling for Geno to be benched would then be calling for him to come back.  I do not believe Geno will be our quarterback for too much longer, as his age will likely lead to us looking for a younger option soon.  Just not this season.

Safe to say, coach Mike Macdonald has his work cut out for him.  I hate that I'm hearing people calling him to be fired already.  Like, come on, people.  This was not a team ready to make a Super Bowl run when he took over.  Pete was let go because there were struggles with the team that, unfortunately, still exist today.  Therefore, I think the issues with this team are largely due to the construction of the roster by General Manager John Schneider.  I could do an entirely separate post about him, but the point I want to make here is that he's likely been overvalued as a GM and should, therefore, be held accountable for the team's struggles.   He's not been a good GM with trades, he's only had two or three good drafts out of 14, and he overvalues some positions (wide receiver) while undervaluing others (interior OL).  

If the Seahawks really want to make a run at a Super Bowl in a few years, two things need to happen.  One, they need to find the next franchise quarterback.  Geno is a good holdover quarterback, but he will likely start declining soon (if he hasn't already), and the Hawks will need to find a younger option.  The second thing the Hawks will need to do is either replace John Schneider, or he has to change his philosophy on roster construction.  I don't see the latter happening, as people that high on teams don't tend to be malleable and are set in their ways.  Yes, he put together a team that won us a Super Bowl in 2014.  However, the NFL has changed in the last ten years, and I think he's failed to realize this.  I still like Schneider as a team-builder more than Jerry Dipoto on the Mariners, but it's starting to get close.  Like Dipoto, I feel a championship might not be possible under his reign.  

The thing Seahawks fans most have to understand is this is a team in transition.  We aren't going to make a Super Bowl run this year or even next.  Some legitimate holes on this team still need to be filled, and Macdonald still has to install his system and way of doing things.  This team still feels like it has remnants of Carroll's philosophy, so that needs to change.  Nothing against Carroll, but he's not the coach anymore.  This is Macdonald's team now, whether fans like it or not.  Let's all be patient.

Ranking the Potential Type of Returnee Season for Survivor Season 50

 Jeff Probst recently announced that Season 50 of Survivor will be returning players, but that was not much surprise to anybody.  We had a feeling they'd have to do something special for Survivor's 50th season.  And it will not come too soon, as it's been since Season 40 that we had a season with multiple returning players.  That is the longest such stretch in Survivor history without multiple returning players.

So after this announcement, a lot of speculation has happened among Survivor fans as to what kind of cast it will be.  There are a few different ways they could go with this, and I'm going to rank them 10 to 1 based on how well each theme would work out and be received by the Survivor fanbase as a whole.  Keep in mind Jeff did not explicitly state that it would be all returning players, so there are a couple of previously used themes potentially in play.  Here are the possible themes ranked:

10. First Boots
What's so special about first boots?  I have no idea.  Could they even get 18 or 20 of them?  Are there really 18 or 20 first boots we want to see again?  I don't think there are.  There are certainly a handful, such as Zane, Jelinsky, Zach Wurtenberger, and possibly even Francesca, but the list grows short after that.  

9. Fans vs. Favorites 3
Yes, they could do a Fans vs. Favorites 3, which would only be 1/2 returnee players.  I highly doubt they will do this since fans want to see a full returning players season, and this would definitely enrage the fanbase a bit.  

8. Blood vs. Water 3
Again, it would only be 1/2 of the cast, but we could see 10 new-ish era players with their loved ones.  I highly doubt they'll do this again, but Jeff does love this theme, I know that.  Again, Jeff did not explicitly say it would be all returning players.

7. Regular All-Stars Type Season
Like All-Stars in Season 8 or Game Changers in Season 34, this would be a regular cast of All-Stars, with winners allowed and no clear theme for the division of the tribes.  One small negative I see to this is it would allow the showrunners to have three tribes of six (AGAIN), which has become a New Era staple.   But also, this theme would be so bland and generic, and while any returning player season would be fun, not having any kind of theme would instantly make it a bit lame. 

6. Rivals
A Rivals-type season has been long-talked about, but never happened.  So it would be like Blood vs. Water, but the opposite, I guess.  10 players and 10 of their rivals.  Domenick and Chris Noble?  Shan and Ricard?  Katurah and Bruce?  Liz and Q?  There are a few ideas.  The issue would be casting them so there are even number of men and women.  But I like this idea a lot, because I bet there'd be a lot of drama and there'd likely be a rival pairing or two that would actually want to work together, since no one would expect them to. But Rivals seems like a bit of a kind of lamer season, so it's here at number 6.

5. New Era vs. Old Era 
I don't think it'd be called this (New School vs. Old School?  Battle of the Ages/Eras?), but this is one I could see happening that wouldn't excite the fanbase too much, but maybe enough to keep the ratings up.  They'd have to settle on a demarcation point as to what constitutes a new era and what constitutes an old era player.  My suggestion is Season 25 as the demarcation point, since that'd be halfway at this point.  But I do see the issue with trying to find 8-10 old era players that would be willing and able to keep up with the new era players.  They key being if they're able to.  Not many would.  Alternatively, they could make this a three-tribe format, with 6 old era players (1-19), 6 "middle" era players (21-39), and 6 New Era players (41-49).  But again, I'd worry about the old era players keeping up.

4. Outwit vs. Outplay vs. Outlast
What would be a good way to culminate 50 seasons of Survivor?  By having six players that have excelled in outwitting, six players who excelled in outplaying, and six players who excelled in outlasting others.  Again, this would be another three tribe, six player start, but I would be okay with this one.  It would be interesting to see who would be on which tribe.  I would worry about the Outplay tribe possibly dominating challenges, but that's where they'd have to cast a couple of players who excelled more in finding idols rather than challenges.  One thing I'd say about this season's cast: No losing finalists.  If they truly excelled at "out"-whatevering, then they would've won their season.  

3. Heroes vs. Villains 2
I'm a huge fan of this theme, and I think the fanbase as a whole would really like it.  However, the line between hero and villain has certainly gotten blurred over the years in the game of Survivor.  Maybe they could do Heroes vs. Villains vs. Anti-Heroes?  That would be a bit easier for them to cast for.  Either way, the theme of good vs. evil is always entertaining.  A good story has a good villian to root against and a good hero to root for.

2. Legends vs. Rising Stars
This is a theme I'm putting forth, and I think it would work.  First off, a tribe of legends.  Who wouldn't want that?  No restrictions on how much they've played or if they've won or not.  Just 8-10 legends of the game--some of the biggest names in Survivor history.  We certainly have plenty of those.  Then, on the other tribe, you have 8-10 up-and-comers.  Rising stars, if you will.  These would be players who made a big name for themselves their first time playing and are determined to do so again.  It would be like having a baseball game of future Hall of Famers against future All-Stars.  Wouldn't that be fun to watch?

1. Second Chances 2
Let the fans decide again.  Why not?  There are a lot of ways to run the voting, and who wouldn't love to have a say in the cast again?  Potential players could run campaigns, trying to establish trending hashtags for their support.  The previous time we had the fans vote, social media was not the thing it is today.  Yes, this would only be players who have played once before, but that's fine--we've got plenty of those.  I do worry that the showrunners/producers would find a way to force a minimum number of New Era (41+) players in the game, but even if that happened, there are plenty of those who we'd love to see again as well.  Also, I must add, it'd be hard to enforce the diversity mandate.  They couldn't split them up into whites vs. minorities.  But I'm sure they could find a way.  Perhaps fans could pick their favorites from a list of 100, and the producers choose from there.  Just an idea.

Mariners Off-Season Outlook after Two Payroll-Shedding Trades

Two big trades have been made so far this off-season for the Mariners; two trades that their fans have ridiculed the front office for making.  First was Eugenio Suarez to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a backup catcher and a reliever.  Then Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, and Evan White were sent to the Atlanta Braves for a AAAA-type pitcher (good in minors, bad in majors) and a solid relief pitching prospect.  Both moves have been seen as ways of shedding payroll.  Why would they do this?  Let me explain.

First off, there is no salary cap in MLB like there is in the NFL.  Owners are free to let their GMs spend as much as they want.  They'll just have to foot the bill for any salaries/bonuses they hand out.  It seems in the Mariners case that ownership has restricted the front office of Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander, who definitely would like to spend on a few big bats, but may have needed to shed some payroll first in order to be under a certain budget.  This isn't what fans of a team want to hear.  You should want your owner to allow your GM to spend as much as they need to in order to field the best team possible.  Limiting them only limits their chances of building a successful team.

But let's look at the good.  We haven't lost a ton.  Eugenio Suarez regressed in 2023 after a very solid 2022.  His OPS was down from .791 to .714, and his league-leading strikeout totals rose further.  He did play gold glove-caliber defense, but his offensive numbers still dropped, especially his power.  Jerry Dipoto made the comment that they wanted to be a more contact-focused offense, but my question is this: Why acquire high strikeout guys in the first place?  Jerry chose to trade for Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, known high-strikeout guys.  Perhaps his focus has changed, but that's not altogether encouraging.  

And of the three players we sent to the Braves, none were really huge impact players.  Yes, Kelenic still has a bit of potential, but he had two and a half seasons to realize it with us and just couldn't.  He had one hot stretch in early 2023, but that's it.  He's been largely a bust offensively.  He also strikes out a lot, like Suarez.  Marco was a back-of-the-rotation starter, who was hurt a huge chunk of 2023.  He was the longest-tenured Mariner, but he had reached his ceiling, and his ceiling quite frankly wasn't good enough for our rotation anymore.  And Evan White battled injuries and offensive inconsistency and lost his job to Ty France.  He wasn't going to regain his spot.  

So, we shed some dead weight, honestly.  Suarez and Hernandez (who left in Free Agency) were occasional good middle-of-the-order hitters, but just struck out too much.  That led to too many times where all we needed was a ball put in play and they struck out.  Marco was a lot of money for little return, and Evan White and Kelenic could never fully figure out hitting with us.  

But now let's look at the bad.  There are a ton of holes on this team.  Both corner outfield spots, DH, third base, and second base all need to be addressed.  There's also the fact we could use another starter with Robbie Ray hurt (*cough cough* Blake Snell! *cough*).  We should not be going into 2024 with our middle-of-the-lineup players being France and Raleigh.  This team, as it stands now, would certainly regress in 2024 if no major additions were made.  

So we can only hope and pray as Mariners fans that Jerry and Justin have a plan.  I'm hoping that they were given the luxury of increasing payroll at least a bit.  Perhaps they did the math and realized the guys they wanted to sign or extend after a trade would require more financial room than they already had.  But just because they have their eyes on a few players, doesn't mean they'll get them.  I worry they may have made this room unnecessarily, and they might strike out on acquiring some big names.  This off-season, simply saying "We tried" is not good enough.  

Our dream, of course, is to see big name after big name acquired by the Mariners.  We want to see the social media posts of "Welcome to Seattle, ____!" for a lot of household names.  We do not want to see it for players along the likes of Tommy LaStella, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock.  Of course, not every good player is available in free agency, and some will require a trade to acquire.  I just hope we don't mortgage our future in the hopes of getting back to the post-season.  That was attempted and failed at too many times from 2002-2021.  

The rest of this off-season will be hugely telling for this team and its future.  Jerry and Justin have their work cut out for them.  I think this is the single most important off-season of their Mariners' careers because a failure this off-season will likely eventually cost them their jobs.  I'm sure they're aware of the magnitude of this off-season.  Simply put, an abysmal showing this off-season, and they should not be surprised if ticket and merch sales drop.  At that point, none of us should spend any extra money on this team.  But a good showing will bring this fanbase back around and instill hope for 2024.

2023 NFL Predictions

 Hard to believe, but another NFL season is almost upon us.  I might be doing this a tad early, but I'd rather do it now when I have time.  Anyway, I will go division by division, predicting win/loss records and then the playoffs for each conference.  Normally, I'd go further in detail to my Seahawks, but I don't think I will this time.  I don't know what it is; I'm not particularly excited about this upcoming season.  I feel like we outperformed last year, so I'm expecting some regression this year.  Also, I'm going to make some very surprising picks, because I feel we get surprised by the NFL every year, and there are always a few teams that are almost the complete opposite of what we expect.  Anyway, here are my predicted NFL standings!  Wild cards will have asterisks.

AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills: 11-6
2. Miami Dolphins: 10-7*
3. New York Jets: 9-8
4. New England Patriots: 7-10
The Bills still have the most talented roster in the AFC East, but it's tightening fast.  I wouldn't be surprised if they had to fight for a wild card, but I still put them as division winners because Miami and the Jets are still missing a few pieces.  The Patriots remain competitive under Belichick, but remain mediocre at best.

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens: 10-7
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-9
4. Cleveland Browns: 6-11
Call this the battered and blue division because these teams are going to beat each other up this season.  I don't see any team losing or winning more than 4 in-division games.  And I hate predicting injuries, but I have a bad feeling about Joe Burrow.  His pre-season calf injury worries me and makes me think that might linger or he might suffer a different minor injury that knocks him out for a few games and costs the Bengals the division.  The Steelers and Browns remain competitive, but it's hard to do much better in a very tough AFC.  And yes, I have Mike Tomlin suffer his first losing season as head coach.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts: 9-8
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-9
3. Tennessee Titans: 8-9
4. Houston Texans: 5-12
Here's one of my surprising predictions: The Colts winning the AFC South.  Anthony Richardson has a solid/borderline rookie of the year campaign and leads the Colts to the playoffs.  The Jags return back to Earth a bit and realize they've still got a few holes.  The Titans are just... there.  The Texans still have a ways to go, but surprise some people. Ha!  Try all of us.  What I thought would be the Colts ended up being the Texans.  

AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5
2. Denver Broncos: 11-6*
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 7-10
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 2-15
The Chiefs are good, as expected, and retain the AFC's #1 seed.  It's only with a record of 12-5, though, due to the competitiveness of the AFC.  The Broncos are another of my surprise teams, and they claim the top wild-card spot.  Russell Wilson mostly returns to form thanks to the help of new head coach Sean Payton. The Chargers get outcoached in many games and Brandon Staley likely loses his job at the end of the season.  The Raiders stink with Jimmy G (who likely gets hurt, again) and Josh Jacobs shows his displeasure.  If they can afford it, they fire McDaniels.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6
2. New York Giants: 10-7*
3. Washington Commanders: 9-8
4. Dallas Cowboys: 6-11
Hard to believe that we haven't had a repeat NFC East champion in almost 20 years.  I think that ends here.  The Eagles are too talented.  The Giants will make it close, however.  The Commanders, no longer having the worst owner in professional sports, play inspired football and almost make the postseason.  The Cowboys have a down year, due to not having much depth behind skill players Ceedee Lamb and Tony Pollard.

NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings: 13-4
2. Detroit Lions: 10-7*
3. Chicago Bears: 8-9
4. Green Bay Packers: 6-11
The Vikings with the best record in the NFL?  You heard it here first.  Kirk Cousins is now the best QB in his division (although Goff is close).  The Vikings will put together a 7 or 8 game win streak, and go 6-4 or 5-4 in their other 10 or 9 games.  The Lions don't win the division, but they do snag a wild-card playoff spot.  The Bears are slightly improved, but Fields can only do so much.  The Packers regress heavily after losing Aaron Rodgers, and Jordan Love leads the Packers' front office to quickly try to find the next heir apparent.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints: 10-7
2. Carolina Panthers: 7-10
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-11
4. Atlanta Falcons: 5-12
Derek Carr and the Saints claim the division title, thanks to Carr easily being the best QB in the division.  The Panthers surprise a bit, and Bryce Young does enough to win rookie of the year.  The Bucco's switch to Kyle Trask after Mayfield struggles.  The Falcons are just there.

NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
2. Los Angeles Rams: 11-6*
3. Seattle Seahawks: 8-9
4. Arizona Cardinals: 3-14
The Niners repeat as division champs, likely with multiple QB's starting games for them.  The Rams bounce back and claim the top wild card spot thanks to Matthew Stafford's resurgence.  My Seahawks do okay for most of the year, but they lose too many close games, due to either the defense allowing a late score or Geno Smith not being able to engineer a game-winning drive.  The Cardinals are expected to not be very good, and they won't be.

Here are the playoff seedings: 
AFC
1. Kansas City (12-5)
2. Buffalo (11-6)
3. Baltimore (10-7)
4. Indianapolis (9-8)
5. Denver (11-6)
6. Cincinnati (10-7)
7. Miami (10-7)

NFC
1. Minnesota (13-4)
2. San Francisco (12-5)
3. Philadelphia (11-6)
4. New Orleans (10-7)
5. Los Angeles Rams (11-6)
6. New York Giants (10-7)
7. Detroit (10-7)

Here's how I think the playoffs would go:
AFC Wild Card
(7) Dolphins at (2) Bills: Dolphins win
In a rematch of last year's wild card, the Dolphins get the upper hand this time.
(6) Bengals at (3) Ravens: Bengals win
Another rematch, this time with the Ravens as the higher seed, but it still doesn't matter.
(5) Broncos at (4) Colts: Broncos win
The Broncos' leadership (Payton/Wilson) has plenty of playoff experience, and it proves valuable.
NFC Wild Card
(7) Lions at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
I'd be rooting for the Lions like crazy, but it would just be too tough for them, just like it was for my Seahawks last season.
(6) Giants at (3) Eagles: Eagles win
Divisional showdown!  Eagles come out on top easily.
(5) Rams at (4) Saints: Rams win
The Rams prove too much for Carr and the Saints.

AFC Divisional Round:
(7) Dolphins at (1) Chiefs: Chiefs win
Tyreke Hill returns to Kansas City!  But he loses, due to the KC pressure being too much for Tua.
(6) Bengals at (5) Broncos: Bengals win
The Bengals have a more well-rounded roster in terms of talent and experience, which proves to be the difference.

NFC Divisional Round:
(5) Rams at (1) Vikings: Vikings win
The home field advantage proves too much for the Rams, who also cannot figure out a way to shutdown Justin Jefferson.
(3) Eagles at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
In a rematch of last year's NFC Championship game, the 49ers get the upper hand due to home field advantage, but also having a healthy quarterback this time.

Conference Championships:
(6) Bengals at (1) Chiefs: Bengals win
For the third year in a row, this is the AFC Championship game matchup.  And it goes back to Cincy.  The Bengals have an up and down season, but they catch fire at the end of the season, which is all that matters.
(2) 49ers at (1) Vikings: Vikings win
Whoever is under center for the 49ers is going to struggle under the lights and noise, and the Vikings win a close, hard-fought game.  

Super Bowl LVIII: Vikings vs. Bengals: Bengals win
The Bengals enter as very slight underdogs but emerge victorious.  In a matchup of two teams, each who has yet to win a Super Bowl, the Bengals come out on top.  It's an electrifying Super Bowl, filled with plenty of lead changes.  Joe Burrow wins Super Bowl MVP.  

There you have it.  The Cincinnati Bengals are my Super Bowl pick. Yikes!  Couldn't have done worse, lol.  However, my conference championship losers ended up being the Super Bowl, so there's that. Despite me thinking they'll have a down regular season, I think they'll do well late and in the playoffs.  They were so close last year to returning to the Super Bowl, and this year I think they do and win it.  Before I go, here are the coaches who I think get fired or leave by season's end: 

Bill Belichick, Patriots (retires) Didn't retire, but he's done anyway
Mike Vrabel, Titans Yep
Brandon Staley, Chargers Yep
Josh McDaniels, Raiders Yep
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers Nope
Other possibilities: Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals), Arthur Smith (Falcons) Yep, Matt LaFleur (Packers), Pete Carroll (Seahawks, retire?) Yep, Ron Rivera, Commanders (retire?) Yep

The firing I did not consider: Frank Reich (first year!)

2023 Outlook for Seattle Mariners Players

 The 2023 MLB season starts this Thursday, and while I've already made my predictions for the season, I have yet to talk in-depth about my favorite team, the Seattle Mariners.  I'm going to go through each of the players expected to make the Opening Day Roster and say what I expect from them.  I'm later going to use these expectations and give them grades at the All-Star break and at the end of the season.  

PITCHERS
Matt Brash: 
I expect Brash to have an improved 2023, becoming one of our more dominant relievers.  I'd love to see him either be THE guy we use to face tough bats, or be a guy we can stretch out to 2 innings if need be.

Luis Castillo:
Luis will be in his first full season as a Mariner, and he'll be our #1.  I expect Luis to keep us in a lot of low-scoring ball games (think that extra innings game against the Yankees last year).  I would love to see an All-Star nod for him, but not making it wouldn't be the biggest disappointment, either.

Diego Castillo: 
All I want is control from Diego from start to finish.  Now he's going to get wild at times, but his games where he loses control need to be few and far between.  And we cannot afford him to go on streaks (like he did at the start of last year) where his ERA is in the double digits.

Matt Festa:
Festa's a good, all-around reliever and I hope he stays that way.  He's like Brash but without as nasty of stuff.  I'd love to see him close a game or two.  

Chris Flexen: 
It looks like Flexen will start the year in the pen, but will fill in as a starter when necessary (double-headers, injuries, etc.). This will be HUGE.  As long as Flex doesn't let when or how he's pitching affect him, I'd look for him to be one of our more important pitchers this season.  He could also be a very valuable trade piece at the deadline.

Logan Gilbert:
Logan started out red-hot last April.  I was thinking Cy Young.  But alas, he cooled off.  I'm not expecting Logan to be THAT good, but to be near it and to be near it for longer would be ideal.  Imagine if Logan shows some overall signs of improvement, and is only the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on our team?  Wow...

Marco Gonzales: 
Because of the acquisition of pitching and promoting through the minors, Marco has gone from our #1 to our #5 in just three seasons.  Crazy.  And he's handled it like the ultimate professional.  I expect Marco to be one of the league's best #5 starters, consistently putting out quality (or near quality) starts of 6IP, 3 runs or less.  

Trevor Gott: 
I'm not expecting a ton from Gott, a newcomer.  I just don't want him to suck.  Be on par with Festa and Castillo, and I'll be happy.

George Kirby:
Kirby arrived after Gilbert, but his ceiling is higher.  I expect George to improve on 2022 and be our second best pitcher (if not best) in his first FULL season (he started in May last season).  I wouldn't be surprised to see an All-Star nod for George, which would be reason to give him an A at the break.  

Andres Munoz: 
It'll be interesting to see how Servais handles Munoz this season.  Hopefully he doesn't put too much on him, like he seemed to do in the playoffs.  If Munoz's stuff can be just as lethal as last season, I'll be happy.

Penn Murfee:
Unfortunately Penn had the distinction of being the pitcher that allowed the Astros go-ahead home run in the 18th inning of game 3 of the ALDS.  I don't think too many fans hold a grudge against him.  I hope he can shake that and that it doesn't affect how he pitches in 2023.

Robbie Ray:
Robbie has been working on a new pitch, I believe.  We need him to have a better 2023 than he did 2022.  He doesn't need to be a Cy Young candidate, just someone good enough to be in our Top 3 starters (which he wasn't last year).  

Paul Sewald: 
Sewald was our defacto closer last season, and he wasn't perfect, but he was solid.  I hope some of the burden is taken off of his shoulders and he's given some lower-impact innings.


CATCHERS
Tom Murphy: 
The Murph is back!  He was our starter, but now he'll be backing up The Big Dumper.  I expect Murph to put up solid numbers and start at least 40-60 games, hopefully.  

Cal Raleigh:
The Big Dumper had such a great 2022 season, the highlight of course being his playoff-clinching walk-off home run.  If he can improve his average slightly and still hit dingers, I'll be happy.

INFIELDERS
J.P. Crawford:
J.P. has had up-and-down seasons the last few years.  I hope his average can climb (with the ban of the shift) and he can hit well from the bottom of the lineup.  I hope he hits well enough for Servais to consider moving him up to 1 or 2, but I won't hold my breath.  I also want his defense to improve well enough to earn him a Gold Glove nomination.

Ty France:
Let's have a season where Ty plays fully healthy, ok?  The bigger bases will help with avoiding collisions.  I do expect Ty to have a great year if he can stay healthy.  A repeat All-Star appearance would be great, but the Mariners haven't had many of those in recent memory.  

Eugenio Suarez:
Suarez had as great of season as we could've hoped in 2022.  I hope him playing in the WBC doesn't mean he tires out at the end of the year.  If he can continue to be a force in the middle of our lineup, I'll be happy.

Kolten Wong: 
Wong is more of a defensive player than an offensive powerhouse, so I won't be counting on his bat too much.  But I would love to see his average jump a bit from last season.  I'm also looking forward to all the sweet double plays he and J.P. will turn.  

OUTFIELDERS
Sam Haggerty: 
"Swaggerty" was a vital tool for Servais last season, and I hope he continues to be.  We will likely see him take over for Hernandez in the outfield late in games (like he did for Winker last year).  I also hope to see him play some more second base, a position he is capable of handling.

Teoscar Hernandez:
Teoscar will hopefully be a force in the middle of our lineup, much like Suarez last season.  I'm looking forward to seeing him playing alongside his DR countryman in Julio.  Hopefully his defense won't be a liability and we'll see some clutch knocks from him.

Jarred Kelenic: 
Listen, JK seems to be as ready as ever.  He had a FANTASTIC spring.  He seems focused and locked in.  We know he has speed, defense, and a cannon arm.  If he can hit above .200 (.220+?) and hit dingers, (on pace for 20-30), he will be a consistent starter.  There's nothing more Mariner fans want than to see JK succeed in a big way.  

AJ Pollock: 
AJ will likely start against lefties in left field, giving Kelenic a breather every now and then.  He also might get a start at DH if no one else needs it.  I hope he can provide a veteran bat, hit somewhat decently, and give Servais a reason to keep him in the lineup.

Julio Rodriguez: 
Man, what a year he had last season.  Can we expect bigger things in 2023?  Why not?  Julio is the face of this team, and we are counting on him to be an even bigger force in 2023.  Provided he plays decently, a repeat 2023 All-Star appearance is a given, considering he is now a household name.  

Well, there you have it.  I know I didn't get too much into numbers, but I didn't want to just to get disappointed.  I know I also didn't predict them to make the playoffs, but if most of these guys can meet my reasonable expectations for them, I see no reason why they cannot prove me wrong.  I'm stoked and I'm looking forward to a great 2023 season.  GO MARINERS!!!!

My 2023 MLB Predictions

 It's about that time of year!  The MLB season officially gets underway later this month, so I got to get my predictions out.  

Like last year, I'm going to predict the order of each division (no win or loss totals), the wild card teams, and I'll run through the playoffs.  Last year, I correctly picked the Mariners to end their playoff drought, and I even got their playoff seeding right (#5)!  I'll also pick the team leaders for statistical categories and All-Stars.  Let's hope I do better in that department this year.  Just a refresher: I had Frazier leading in average, JP leading in stolen bases, Ray leading in ERA, and Winker, Haniger, and Ray as All-Stars.  Oops!  Without further ado, the 2023 MLB predicted standings:

NL EAST
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies*
3. New York Mets*
4. Miami Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
Comment: In the highly competitive NL East (at least with the first three teams), I have the Braves winning the division.  They lost Dansby Swanson but still have a great core with Riley, Acuna, and Harris.  The Phillies will be a strong wild-card team after acquiring Trea Turner.  The Mets did get Verlander, but he shows his age, and the Mets take a small step back.  

NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Comment: This is likely the worst division in baseball.  The Brewers and Cardinals will fight for the division, but the Cards have too much firepower with Goldschmidt and Arenado.  The retirements of Pujols and Yadi will open up spots for younger players to emerge.  The Cubs will be slightly better, and could possibly challenge for a wild card spot. 

NL WEST
1. San Diego Padres
2. Los Angeles Dodgers*
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Comment: My biggest surprise pick (standing-wise) is the Padres winning the NL West over the Dodgers.  The Dodgers will hold the division for most of the season, but a combination of a late Padres run and a Dodgers late collapse results in the Padres winning the division.  The Dodgers will still get a wild card.  The Giants will be decent again, but like the Cubs may still be a year away.

AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays*
3. Baltimore Orioles*
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Boston Red Sox
Comment: The Yankees win the division... again.  The Blue Jays again claim the top wild-card seed.  The Orioles leapfrog the Rays and claim the final wild-card spot.  The Orioles have a young core that will only get better.  The Red Sox lost Bogearts and well... they need to rebuild.

AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Guardians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Comment: The Guardians have a solid young core and aren't going anywhere.  The Twins should compete and will challenge for a wild card spot, but it won't be enough.  The White Sox will feel the loss of Jose Abreu.  

AL WEST
1. Houston Astros
2. Texas Rangers*
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: I hate to say it, but the Mariners are missing the playoffs.  I hope I'm wrong.  I think the Rangers signing DeGrom and getting Bruce Bochy as manager were huge.  I don't think the Mariners did enough this offseason, and it will come back to bite them.  Of course, the Astros aren't going anywhere, unfortunately.

So, the 2023 playoffs!  Perhaps a few surprise teams?  No Mariners... let's hope if they miss the playoffs (like I'm predicting) that it doesn't start a new drought for the team.

NL WILD CARD
(6) Mets at (3) Cardinals: Cardinals win
(5) Phillies at (4) Dodgers: Phillies win

AL WILD CARD 
(6) Orioles at (3) Guardians: Guardians win
(5) Rangers at (4) Blue Jays: Blue Jays win

NL DIVISIONAL ROUND
(5) Phillies at (1) Braves: Braves win
(3) Cardinals at (2) Padres: Padres win

AL DIVISIONAL ROUND
(4) Blue Jays at (1) Astros: Astros win
(3) Guardians at (2) Yankees: Guardians win

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Padres vs. Braves: Braves win
Guardians vs. Astros: Guardians win

WORLD SERIES
Guardians vs. Braves: Braves win in 7

Yep, a rematch of the 1995 World Series, 28 years later.  The Braves win again.  Now, who I think will lead certain categories for the M's:

Average: JP Crawford (resurgent season)
Home Runs: Julio Rodriguez
RBI: Ty France
Stolen Bases: Julio Rodriguez
Wins: Luis Castillo
Strikeouts: Robbie Ray
ERA: George Kirby
Saves: Paul Sewald
All-Stars: Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby

I'm going to do a further look at the M's, what I expect from each player, and perhaps go in depth as to why I think they'll miss the playoffs (barely).  Look for that soon!

So this is Brian from late 2023, the MLB season is now in the playoffs and I wanted to point out the biggest things I got right and the biggest things I got wrong:

Biggest things I got right:
- Mariners missing the playoffs.  I wish I wasn't right on this...!  Sigh.
- The Texas Rangers finishing 2nd to the Astros and snagging a wild card, along with two other AL East teams.  
- The Baltimore Orioles making the playoffs--although I did not see them winning the East!
- The Dodgers losing their first playoff series--again.  Although, I had them losing the wild card instead of losing in the divisional round.

Biggest things I got wrong: 
- Guardians winning their division and the AL Pennant--Whoops!
- Cardinals winning the NL Central--but I wasn't the only one to get this wrong
- The Padres winning the NL West over the Dodgers.  Hey, they lost a lot of close games, if you switch those, you basically get what I predicted.
- The Yankees winning the AL East while the Rays finish 4th.  Basically switch those two. 

Ten Survivor Season Ideas

With Survivor 44 just around the corner, I thought it'd be fun to do another Survivor blog post.  I know Survivor is in a new era, and so far, it seems like they're solely focusing on newbie casts only with no themes.  I think they're going to have to return to either returnee or themed seasons (or both) again someday, just to increase intrigue for seasons.  Constantly continuing with newbie casts and numbered seasons is not going to keep Survivor fresh, and fans are going to tire of it quickly.  So, here are five returnee player seasons and five themed casts for newbie seasons that I'd suggest they use.  I won't do any "sequels" to a returnee player season, such as "Second Chances 2", because that would be too easy.


Returnee Player Seasons

1. Old School vs. New School
It would be interesting to see a New School vs. Old School season.  The Old School Survivors wouldn't have to all be from older seasons, because we've had some Old School type players in fairly recent seasons.  Same applies for some New School players from some older seasons.  Or alternatively, they could have this be players from seasons before Season 40 vs. players from seasons after Season 40.

2. One Last Chance
All of these players playing this season would verbally commit to saying this is their final season, whether it be their 2nd time playing or their 3rd or 4th.  Like Winners at War, it would give a lot of legends (Cirie?  Ozzy?  Russell Hantz?) a chance to bid farewell to the show.  I'd much prefer this over a season simply titled "Legends".  At least with this, we can get some closure on some Survivor legends for sure.

3. Pre-Merge vs. Post-Merge
If they want to stick to picking returning players from just the 40s, one idea they could do is to have a tribe of pre-merge boots against a tribe of post-merge boots.  Just two seasons into this new format and we already have a handful of possible pre-merge boot returnee players such as Brad, JD, Daniel, Jenny, and Zach.  Two more seasons, and we'll have enough for an entire tribe.  Also, this would be titled something else (such as Second Chance 2), but the tribes would be divided based on where people got voted out their first time playing.

4. Social vs. Strategy
This is kind of a lame idea and needs some help with regards to marketing, but my idea is to put one tribe of players that relied on social games--Michele Fitzgerald, Cirie, Tommy, etc. against a tribe of players that focused on advantages and strategy, such as Drea, Jesse, and Devens.  It would be interesting to see the strategy tribe fight for advantages and see how well the social tribe gets along.  And of course, it would be interesting which "strategy" would come out on top.

5. Rivals
This has been talked about for a long time, but a rivals season is definitely a possibility.  Rather than split the rivals up on separate tribes, I think you put them on the same tribe.  Putting them on separate tribes only increases the chance that we won't have many rival pairs left come the merge.  Also, these rivalries would have to have some sort of requirement, such as one player had to have voted out the other.  Think Chris and Dom, Jay and Michaela, etc.  It would be interesting to see if the rival pairs would set aside their differences and work together or if they would target each other immediately. 


Themed Cast for Newbie Seasons

1. Teachers vs. Students
Survivor loves it's "_____ vs. ____" type-seasons, such as "David vs. Goliath" and "Millennials vs. Gen X".  Those two have been two of their more successful seasons in the past 10 years.  I'd suggest a Teachers vs. Students season.  The Teachers tribe wouldn't have to be fully comprised of people that are in a teaching profession (Although I'd recommend about half).  They could also be comprised of people that train others for a living (managers, bosses, etc.).  The Students tribe also wouldn't be fully comprised of actual students currently enrolled in school, but it could be people learning a profession or people who are apprentices or new to their occupation.  Yes, the Teachers tribe would generally be older, but I'm sure they could find some older students and younger teachers to help even things out.

2. Salute to Armed Forces
Survivor should do a season comprised entirely of veterans from various branches of the military.  I think it would add some intrigue, and maybe some alliances of people from the same branch.  They've cast many veterans throughout the years.  My one concern is whether they would have enough female veteran applicants.  They might have to do a bit of recruiting.  One idea I had is this could be a captain-type season, with maybe Ben Driebergen leading one tribe, and Angela from Ghost Island leading the other tribe.

3. Celebrity Edition
I've wanted a Celebrity Edition of Survivor for so long.  I'd be okay if they were given a decent amount of food and habitable living conditions, especially if each celebrity was playing for charity.  Who wouldn't want to see celebrities lie, scheme, and betray each other?  I know they did "Beyond the Edge," which had celebrities, but that wasn't Survivor.  There are plenty of celebrity Survivor fans that would be willing to do this.

4. Kids vs. Parents
I know Survivor loves to lean into the Blood vs. Water storylines, so why not fully?  Why not have a season where one tribe is a tribe of parents and the other tribe is their kids?  This could maybe even be where they lower the age restriction a bit (to 16 or 17).  But the kids' tribe would have to have some older "kids". Otherwise, they would struggle to build a camp and get food.

5. Connections to the Past
Think Blood vs. Water, but without returning players.  Each player cast is someone related to a former Survivor player.  I would love it if they did this but then didn't tell the players that anyone else is related to a Survivor player.  The hard part would be getting 16-20 players who don't recognize each other, as former players often hang out, share photos, etc.  But imagine someone letting slip they're related to a former Survivor player, and then someone else confessing to them, etc.  Bonds or rivalries could form over this.  It would be very interesting to see how and when players would reveal their connections.  

Well, those are the 10 theme suggestions I have for Survivor; hopefully they use one of these someday!  I might come back and comment on it if they do.  

2022: A Successful Season for the Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners 2022 season ended in disappointment.  But for 29 MLB teams, that is always the case.  However, this 2022 season was remarkable.  The Mariners ended their postseason drought of 20 years and finally made it back to the playoffs.  

What's even more impressive is the wild card series the Mariners had.  They took care of business in game 1, and then in game 2, they came back from a seven-run deficit to win 10-9 in one of the greatest postseason comebacks in baseball history.  This was all done on the road in Toronto, a harsh environment to play in.  That series showed that this team can never be counted out.  

Because of the Mariners' Wild Card Series win, they were able to advance to the Divisional Series against the Houston Astros and play at least one home playoff game.  Unfortunately, one home playoff game is all they would get as they got swept in three games.  The Mariners lost the three-game series by a total of 4 runs.  They just couldn't get luck back on their side.

I said a month ago I'd consider this a successful season if the Mariners got to the divisional round and got to play at least one home playoff game, and that they did.  They were in each of the three games against the Astros.  They held a lead in the first two, which they unfortunately could not hold.  They went 18 innings against the Astros in game 3, only to lose on a fluke home run by the Astros.  They were close to winning all three games, yet lost all three.  

What seems so disappointing is that this team seemed to be on a run.  In game 1, the Mariners held a 4-run lead and seemed to be on their way to their third straight playoff victory and a huge game 1 win.  Instead, the bullpen folded, the Astros hit a walk-off homer, and the Mariners could never fully recover.  The Mariners only scored 2 runs in the final 27 innings of the series.

The big obstacle in the Mariners' way is the Houston Astros.  They have made it to six straight ALCS's, won 5 of 6 AL West division titles, and are always tough for the Mariners to beat.  They are the Goliath to the Mariners' David, and the Mariners will either have to best them in the regular season or beat them in the playoffs if they want to do any better in future years.  

Maybe the 2023 Mariners can win the AL West outright.  That'd certainly seem to be the most straightforward plan.  The Mariners are still in a 21-year division title drought.  Every other AL West team has won the division since the Mariners last won it.  

So let's hope the Mariners' front office makes the right moves this offseason to upgrade the team.  Moves need to be made so that this team can finally get past the Astros.  A couple bats, and a bullpen arm, and they might just be there.  It is imperative that the Mariners make progress in 2023 and not take a step back.

Twenty-One Years in the Making

 The 2022 Mariners, barring the most miraculous finish by Baltimore and the most epic of collapses by them, will make the playoffs for the first time in twenty-one years.  The playoff drought for this team will not see its 21st birthday if you count from the last playoff game in Mariner's history, which was October 22, 2001.  Just one more win by the Mariners and one more loss from the Baltimore Orioles will make it so it is impossible for Baltimore (or any team behind them, for that matter) can supplant the Mariners from a Wild Card playoff spot.

I have waited twenty-one long and painful years for this.  As a Mariner fan, I have endured ineptitude, horrible trades and free agent acquisitions and have always been disappointed by September at the latest.  It's going to be weird.  The Mariners in the playoffs seems so abnormal in today's world, like seeing someone still using an iPod shuffle or a Microsoft Zune.  But the Mariners making the playoffs has to become a new fad or trend, and one that will hopefully stick around longer than the Zune did.

It's hard to express my emotions right now.  To be honest, part of me is half-expecting to wake up and realize this was a dream and see the 2022 Mariners with a losing record.  So it might take a while for it to sink in with me.  

What would also help is having a home playoff game.  Playoff baseball in Seattle is like no other.  Unfortunately, there hasn't been enough of it in MLB history.  But playoff baseball in Seattle is, for lack of a better term, electric.  The Kingdome rocked in the 1990s with pennant fever.  T-Mobile park has shown signs of what the players have dubbed "The electric factory."  But imagine if the Mariners did damage and won a playoff series at home.  

Unfortunately, with the way the playoffs are currently designed, the Mariners would have to get the top wild card spot in order to guarantee themselves home playoff games.  Otherwise, they'd have to win their wild card series on the road, likely against Cleveland or Toronto.  Neither is an easy task.  So while the Mariners may end their playoff drought, they still might not get to host a playoff game, and that streak could continue.  

But I'm sure many Mariners fans, myself included, would take this situation in a heartbeat.  After twenty-one years, you'll just take any modicum of success your team can achieve.  To have the Mariners in a playoff series, even if it's entirely on the road, is something I've dreamed about for twenty-one years.  When I watch them play in the playoffs, it's going to feel so surreal, on the verge of feeling unreal, almost.  

I'm so stoked these guys are on the verge of ending this drought, and I wish them the absolute best for the rest of the season and in the playoffs.  Regardless of the finish (provided we clinch the playoffs), this 2022 season will always be looked back at fondly.  The playoff drought now is longer than the one this team endured to start its existence.  And you know what?  It's about damn time we made the playoffs.  Go Mariners.

What Constitutes a Successful Season at this Point for the 2022 Mariners

 The 2022 Seattle Mariners season has been quite the roller coaster.  From being 10 games under .500 to going on a 14-game winning streak, this team has really experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.  The Mariners currently sit at 82-67, guaranteed their first consecutive back-to-back winning seasons since 2002 and 2003.  But the team's sights are set on the postseason, to make their first trip there in 21 years.  

The Mariners are currently nearing the end of a three-city road trip, a road trip that has gone about as bad as it could for a contending team.  They salvaged the final games in each series so far from the Angels and A's, two teams that have no shot at the postseason.  They also seem to have lost Julio Rodriguez, their star player, for at least a few games.  Even if the Mariners sweep the Royals, they cannot have a winning road trip.

I'm left wondering what constitutes a successful season at this point.  The worst realistic scenario would be this hitting slump continues, injuries mount, and the Mariners limp into the #6 wild card spot and promptly lose two games in Cleveland.  That to me would not constitute a successful season given where the Mariners once stood.  

I'd say the bare minimum for the Mariners is they need to win a playoff game.  I could argue the Mariners need to host a playoff game, which would mean either claiming the top wild card spot or winning their wild card series.  I'll say this: If the Mariners can host a playoff game, it will definitely be a successful season, regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes.  If they cannot, it'll definitely be left up to the determination of their fans.

This recent stretch of losing and poor hitting is certainly concerning.  But if the Mariners can enter the postseason on a hot streak, good things can happen.  They'll need to use their final homestand to get right.  They'll need to use it to figure out which hitters will be on the postseason roster and to break some hitters out of slumps.  

Of course, the Mariners have not clinched anything yet.  The postseason is not guaranteed.  But a collapse of that proportion would be too much for most Mariners fans, myself included, to handle.  We have put up with too much heartbreak in the last two decades, and a collapse of that nature would put me over the edge as a Mariners fan.  

Once the season is over, I will make another post recapping and say if it was a successful season or not.  It'll be hard to say it's not a successful season if the Mariners make the playoffs, ending a 21-year postseason drought.  But if the Mariners limp in, promptly lose both games and fail to even host a playoff game, it'll be equally hard to call it a successful season.

2022 NFL and Seahawk Predictions

 The 2022 NFL season is almost here, and with that comes my annual NFL predictions.  Now, with the trade of Russell Wilson, expectations are much lower for the Seahawks.  Also, my excitement for watching the NFL this season is tempered, since my team is no longer a contender.  However, that still will not stop me from predicting records, division winners, playoff game winners, and a Super Bowl Champion.  

I will also predict each game of the Seahawks regular season after that.  An asterisk denotes a wild card team.  Here we go!

AFC EAST
1. Buffalo Bills: 13-4
2. Miami Dolphins: 10-7*
3. New England Patriots: 8-9
4. New York Jets: 6-11

Some people see the Jets making strides, but with all the news surrounding Zach Wilson, I don't.  I think the Dolphins have a fairly dynamic offense with Tyreek Hill, but not as much as they'd hope.  The Patriots are mediocre.  The Bills win the division fairly easily.

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens: 11-6
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
4. Cleveland Browns: 6-11

The Ravens have a bounceback year, as they always do after a disappointing one.  The Bengals regress a bit, I think part of their success last year was catching teams off guard.  The Steelers are competitive but without a true franchise QB this is the best they can be.  The Browns have way too much drama and an inexperienced coach like Stefanski won't be able to handle it too well.  They also won't have the services of Watson all season.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts: 10-7
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-9
3. Tennessee Titans: 7-10
4. Houston Texans: 5-12

A bit of a surprise here, eh?  Keep in mind, we see surprising results at the end of the year we didn't really expect in August.  The Colts should be good enough to win a bad division with veteran Matt Ryan.  The Jaguars take a huge step forward and T-Law looks much better.  The Titans struggle as Henry shows age and Tannehill is too mistake-prone.  The Texans still have a ways to go, but upset some teams.

AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6*
3. Denver Broncos: 9-8
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9

To sum up, they're going to beat each other up.  I doubt any team will have a division record better than 4-2.  The Chiefs win the tiebreaker over the Chargers.  Meanwhile, the Broncos narrowly miss the playoffs as Russ takes too long to acclimate to a new team.  The Raiders are extremely competitive but lose too many close games.

NFC EAST
1. Washington Commanders: 9-8
2. Dallas Cowboys: 8-9
3. New York Giants: 7-10
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 5-12

This division is a total crapshoot.  They haven't had a repeat division winner since the Eagles did it 2003-2004.  I think that trend continues.  The Cowboys lost too much, while Carson Wentz has a semi-resurgence in DC.  The Giants and Danny Dimes make strides but not enough.  The Eagles fall apart (hey, at least one team that isn't expected to does every season).

NFC NORTH
1. Minnesota Vikings: 12-5
2. Green Bay Packers: 10-7*
3. Detroit Lions: 9-8
4. Chicago Bears: 4-13

The Vikings win the division with new coach Kevin O'Connell helping spur Kirk Cousins to an amazing season.  The Packers regress without Davante Adams, and Aaron Rodgers either gets hurt or seems to lose interest.  The Lions have a resurgent season, but it's not enough.  The Bears are just bad and Fields looks lost.

NFC SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11-6
2. Carolina Panthers: 9-8*
3. New Orleans Saints: 7-10
4. Atlanta Falcons: 5-12

The Bucs get 5 or 6 of their wins in-division (meaning they are 5-6 or 6-5 outside the division), showing they can beat up their division still but not other teams too much.  The Panthers have a surprisingly good season with Baker Mayfield proving to be a capable starter.  The Saints are a shell of themselves without Brees and Payton, but still have some talent.  The Falcons, meanwhile, can surprise some teams but not a ton.

NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams: 13-4
2. San Francisco 49ers: 9-8*
3. Arizona Cardinals: 7-10
4. Seattle Seahawks: 7-10

The Rams run away with the division, as is almost expected.  The 49ers are decent with Lance but he isn't able to clutch up some wins for them late.  The Cardinals get off to a somewhat decent start (5-2 or so) but then lost 8 of their last 10.  The Seahawks are more competitive than people give them credit for and they win 7 games.

Before we get to the playoffs, here are the coaches I expect to be fired based on these standings:
- Nick Siriani, Eagles
- Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
- Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals
- Kevin Stefanski, Browns

Generally there's 6 or 7 firings, but those are the only coaches I see getting fired based on those standings.  There may be some coaches (Belichick, Reid, Carroll) that may retire.  Also, I can see Matt Rhule getting fired if the Panthers do any worse than what I predicted.  Even if the Titans struggle like I predict, it's hard to see a well-respected guy like Mike Vrabel getting fired.  Also, there are a few coaches that I don't see doing particularly well (Smith-Falcons, Eburflus-Bears, Saleh-Jets, Smith-Texans, Allen-Saints), but I think their teams would give them another year. 

All right, now time for the playoffs!  Here are the seedings as predicted by yours truly: 

AFC
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Miami Dolphins

NFC
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Washington Commanders
5. Green Bay Packers
6. San Francisco 49ers
7. Carolina Panthers

Now for the playoff matchups: 

Wild Card Round
AFC
(7) Dolphins at (2) Ravens: Ravens win
(6) Bengals at (3) Chiefs: Chiefs win
(5) Chargers at (4) Colts: Chargers win

NFC
(7) Panthers at (2) Vikings: Vikings win
(6) 49ers at (3) Buccaneers: 49ers win
(5) Packers at (4) Commanders: Commanders win

Divisional Round
AFC
(5) Chargers at (1) Bills: Bills win
(3) Chiefs at (2) Ravens: Ravens win

NFC
(6) 49ers at (1) Rams: Rams win
(4) Commanders at (2) Vikings: Vikings win

Conference Championships
AFC: Ravens at Bills: Ravens win
NFC: Vikings at Rams: Rams win

Super Bowl LVII: Ravens over Rams

I know, bold, right?  The Ravens seem to have a Super Bowl-caliber season once every 10-12 seasons, and it's getting to the point.  Rams are unable to repeat, just like the Seahawks nine seasons prior.

All right, now time for some award winners: 
MVP: Kirk Cousins, Vikings
OPOY: Justin Jefferson, Vikings
DPOY: TJ Watt, Steelers
OROY: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
DROY: Aidan Hutchinson, Lions
Coach of the Year: Kevin O'Connell, Vikings
Comeback player: Derwin James, Chargers

Now, for my Seahawks.  I will go game by game, predicting wins and losses.  Not going to do scores, way too unpredictable there.

vs. Broncos: L (0-1)
I think we hang with them tough and give Russ fits, but either are unable to come up with a late clutch score or they do.  

@ 49ers: W (1-1)
We always seem to do well against the Niners and I think K9 (Kenneth Walker III) pops off here.

vs. Falcons: W (2-1)
A low-scoring unexciting game results in a narrow win for the Hawks, something like 20-16.  

@ Lions: L (2-2)
I expect the Lions to be tough this season, but not unbeatable.  But too tough for the Hawks.

@ Saints: W (3-2)
Seahawks starting 2-1 on the road?  Yep.  Put that in the win column.  

vs. Cardinals: L (3-3)
Unfortunately, this is early-season Cardinals, so they'll be pretty tough.  

@ Chargers: L (3-4)
I don't see a way we win this at all.  I just hope our defense doesn't get too embarrassed.

vs. Giants: W (4-4)
Danny Dimes struggles against the 12s and the Seahawks win another close, low-scoring game.

@ Cardinals: W (5-4)
I'd like to think that this game starts the downfall for Kliff, Kyler, and the Cards.  

@ Buccaneers in Munich: L (5-5)
Boy this'll be a tough one.  The Bucs don't play many easy games outside of their division, so they will need to take this one.

vs. Raiders: L (5-6)
In what may be a close game, the Seahawks just struggle to defend against Carr, Adams, Waller, and Renfrow.  

@ Rams: L (5-7) 
The Seahawks head to LA hoping to not be on a 3-game skid, but it's just too tall of a task to overcome.  

vs. Panthers: L (5-8)
Rumors swirl about Pete Carroll's job security, but given the team's low expectations he is not fired.

vs. 49ers: W (6-8)
The Hawks beat the 49ers again in what may be a game that saves Pete Carroll's job.  Expect this to be a sloppy back-and-forth game.

@ Chiefs: L (6-9)
The Seahawks finish with a record of 0-4 against the AFC West (unsurprisingly).  But hey, at least they're 6-9.  Nice.

vs. Jets: W (7-9)
The Hawks know Robert Saleh and are able to exploit his tactics.  

vs. Rams: L (7-10)
It depends on if the Rams will actually need to win this game for playoff positioning, but I'll say they do since I have the Vikings on their heels.  The Hawks can't wrap up the season with a W.

There you have it, 7-10.  Do I feel I'm being a bit optimistic?  Sure.  But Pete Carroll teams are always competitive, enough to get 6 or 7 wins.  I think the Hawks surprise some teams and actually do fairly well against their own division (I have them at 3-3 in-division).  

It's interesting to enter a season with low expectations, but hey, it'll be hard to be disappointed, then!  Go Hawks!

The worst and best WAR seasons I have seen for the Mariners

 I thought it'd be fun to make two teams of Mariners players.  One team will be the worst I've ever seen in terms of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and the other team will be the best.  For a player to be considered, they had to have played the most at that position for the Mariners that year.  I'll comment on what I remember and possibly compare them to today's players.  First off, the worst Mariners team:

Catcher: Miguel Olivo, 2005 (-1.0 WAR)
I vaguely remember Olivo, who we obtained in the Freddy Garcia trade along with Jeremy Reed.  He wasn't a great hitter (although he had some pop), and his defense really lacked.

First Base: Richie Sexson, 2007 (-1.1 WAR)
Richie Sexson started out great, but sure fell off quickly.  His average plummeted and the strikeouts skyrocketed.  He just became a huge liability in the lineup.  The 2007 team tied with the Tigers for the best record for a team to not make the playoffs in the AL, so one must wonder if Sexson had been competent this season, would they have made the playoffs?

Second Base: Bret Boone, 2005 (-1.1 WAR)
Already the second member from the 2005 team.  Watching Boonie's downfall was heartbreaking, and watching his press conference after his release was even more so.  

Shortstop: Yuniesky Betancourt, 2009 (-0.6 WAR)
Boy, Betancourt struggled towards the end of his Mariners career.  He had marginal success in Milwaukee afterward.  But his last year or two here were awful, because he was bad at the plate and at defense, which you cannot afford at shortstop.

Third Base: Chone Figgins, 2011 (-0.9 WAR)
Is this any surprise?  Chone Figgins is often regarded as one of the worst free agent signings in Mariners history.  His asset of being able to make solid contact and getting on base vanished once he came to the Mariners.  

Left Field: Brian L. Hunter, 1999 (-1.0 WAR)
I vaguely remember Brian Hunter, but I do know he underperformed here compared to what he did in Detroit.  He no longer was a capable leadoff hitter.  The next closest was current Mariner Jesse Winker, who is on pace to have the worst WAR season since Hunter.  Hopefully, Winker doesn't do that.

Center Field: Jarred Kelenic, 2021 (-1.8 WAR)
Yikes... is all I can say.  Kelenic still has yet to figure it out (at least offensively), and you have to wonder if he ever will.  He's not terrible defensively, but when compared to Julio, Griffey, Cameron, and Gutierrez, he's not in their league.  

Right Field: Wladimir Balentien, 2008 (-0.6 WAR)
This year Ichiro was in center, prompting the M's to trot out a few guys, and the guy who got the most opportunities was Wladimir Balentien.  Boy, did he struggle.  I know he struck out a ton.  I also know he went overseas to play a bit after playing with the M's.

Designated Hitter: Carl Everett, 2006 (-0.6 WAR)
For an organization that had arguably the greatest DH of all time, they sure have had some awful ones in the past 20 years: Everett, but also Jose Vidro, Jesus Montero, Jack Cust, Corey Hart, and Tim Lopes.  So far, Abraham Toro has started the most in 2022 and would be added to that list, but he'll likely be eclipsed by either Kyle Lewis or Carlos Santana, thank goodness.

Total WAR: -8.7 WAR 
Seasons with multiple players: 2005

All right, now for the best (that I have seen)

Catcher: Mike Zunino, 2017 (3.4 WAR)
Mike had an interesting blend of great defense and power.  He just couldn't hit for an average or ever hit anything less than a home run.  But 2017 was a special year for him, one where I think he should've been an All-Star.

First Base: John Olerud, 2001 (5.2 WAR)
John Olerud was a model of consistency.  He had such a great approach at the plate, and I don't recall him ever making an error at first.  

Second Base: Bret Boone, 2001 (8.8 WAR)
We'll be seeing a few from 2001, and Boonie's 2001 campaign is still considered the best by a 2nd baseman in team history.  Robinson Cano gave him a run for his money in 2016, finishing with a 7.3 WAR.

Shortstop: Alex Rodriguez, 2000 (10.4 WAR)
Sure he's not well-liked in Seattle, but what he did before he bolted for the dollar signs was just incredible.  We still haven't seen a shortstop have this great a start to their career in baseball since, although Fernando Tatis Jr. comes close.  

Third Base: Kyle Seager, 2016 (6.7 WAR)
Seager is now considered the best third baseman in team history, so it's no surprise one of his seasons is here.  He had such a great glove (he honestly should have won more than one gold glove) and a sweet lefty pull swing.

Left Field: Raul Ibanez, 2006 (4.5 WAR)
Raul Ibanez had such a weird career.  How weird?  He was more productive in his 40s than in his 20s.  He might be the only hitter ever that you can say that about.  He was in the prime of his career this season, and he had such a great left-handed bat.  His defense... was ok.

Center Field: Franklin Gutierrez, 2009 (6.6 WAR)
Surprised to not see Griffey?  Well, for this list, I'm only going back to 1999, which is far back as I remember watching Mariners games on the regular.  And Griffey's WAR in 1999 was 4.9.  Guti, meanwhile, was such a great defender that almost any fly ball to center was going to land in his glove, and he also hit for a pretty high average, too.  Julio, the M's current centerfielder, has a chance to pass 6.6 WAR this season, but if he doesn't, I'd put money on him doing it in 2023.

Right Field: Ichiro Suzuki, 2004 (9.2 WAR)
We all remember how great Ichiro was this season, setting the all-time single-season hits record.  He carried the 2004 Mariners, although they had their first losing season in 5 years.  

Designated Hitter: Edgar Martinez, 2000 (5.7 WAR)
Of course it's Edgar!  How could it not be?  Edgar had his last two great seasons in 2000 and 2001, and 2000 was slightly better.  Nelson Cruz came close in the mid 2010's to matching Edgar's WAR, but fell short.  And of course, anyone else to be in this spot has just massively struggled.

Total WAR: 60.5 WAR

Seasons with multiple players: 2001, 2000

I think it's safe to say a team of the players first on this list would likely lose 100 games or more, and a team of the players second on this list would likely shatter the 116-win record.  But that's baseball; you don't always get every player at their peak.  But when you get one or two, boy, it sure is special.

My initial thoughts of the Survivor 43 and 44 casts

 With the casts of Survivor's 43 and 44 leaking, I thought I'd give about a one or two sentence thought on each player.  It'll be interesting to come back after each of these seasons and see how close my first impressions were.

43:

Cassidy Clark - Definitely a bombshell, I think someone or a group of people will find her intimidating.  Mid-merge boot at best.  

Cody Assenmacher - He seems like he'll be one of the more interesting characters.  I could easily see him getting blindsided and having an all-time great reaction.

Dwight Moore - Could be a finale goat or a forgettable boot.  I'm not sure if we're supposed to get too attached to him.

Elie Scott - Likely targeted for being the next Parvati, as many women have before her.  Can she lower her threat level?  

Geo Bustamante - He looks like he says "Bro" a lot.  I cannot see him winning.  

Jay Jones - Will he be more Rocksroy or more Deshawn?  If he's more Deshawn I could see him doing well.

Jeanine Zheng - My dark horse for the season, she looks smart and mature for her age and I could see a deep run, if she can survive the pre-merge.

Jesse Lopez - My pre-pre-season winner pick.  He got a great confessional in the preview for the season and no pure Latino man has ever won Survivor.  About time to change that.

Justine Brennan - Anything from a very early boot to a possible finale player.  Hard to tell.

Karla Godoy - Her confessional about her willingness to do anything I think is a bad sign... I think she'll do something that'll bite her in the butt.

Lindsay Carmine - Early boot or finale loser.  She's the Chrissy of this season.

Mike Gabler - He'll either be like Mike from 42 or Brad from 41.  For his sake, hopefully the former.

Morriah Young - I love her colorful personality and I can't see anyone disliking her.  She should get fairly far.

Noelle Lambert - We haven't had contestant missing a limb since 21, so it'll be interesting to see how she is viewed.  So that makes predicting her finish very difficult.

Nneka Ejere - Can't see her gelling too well.  Even if she gets in a sizable alliance, I think she'll be towards the bottom.

Owen Knight - I think he'll be a fan favorite, like a smarter Woo.  

Ryan Medrano - This season's Jonathan, likely a mid-merge boot.

Sami Layadi - Early boot or finale goat.  Nineteen-year-olds cannot win.


My EARLY final 3 prediction is Jesse, Janine, and Dwight.  


Now for 44:

Brandon Cottom - I remember when he played for the Seahawks (he never made a final 53-man roster, but was in training camp three straight years).  I'll be rooting for him, and I do think he'll do pretty well, based on his application video I watched.

Bruce Perreault - Another Eric Abraham?  He's not quite as old, but he's definitely a longshot to win.

Carolyn Wiger - Her personality will determine everything, if she survives the pre-merge, and how well she'll fit in an alliance.

Carson Garrett - He should do better than Zach in 42, but his age will work against him.

Claire Rafson - Not much to say, I'd have to see her more, but she could do well.

Danny Massa - Reminds me of Voce from 41, appearance-wise.  If he can survive the merge, he's got a shot.

Frannie Marin - She reminds me of Kelyn from Ghost Island.  Hopefully she won't be as emotional.

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt - She looks like she's going to want things her way, and that's not a good thing.  

Helen Li - Erika 2.0?  She'll likely be a social/strategic threat at some point.

Jaime Lynne Ruiz - I followed her on TikTok; she has good content.  I hope she does well, too.  I think she could.

Dr. Joshua Wilder - Hard to say how well he'll do... don't have much of a read on him.

Kane Fritzler - No exact age, from Saskatchewan... I have a feeling he'll have a tough time fitting in.

Lauren Harpe - I get Shan vibes from her, but not as assertive, which is a good thing.  She could do well.

Maddy Pomilla - Either a great player or early boot.  No in between.

Matthew Grinstead-Mayle - He will rub someone the wrong way.  Or multiple people.  I can't see him doing too well.

Matt ??? - No picture, age, or occupation, just his name and location of San Francisco.  I get the feeling we're not supposed to get too attached to him (like Rocksroy).

Sarah Wade - She'll be an early merge boot, following in the steps of Sydney, Tori, and Lydia.

Yamil "Yam Yam" Arocho - He's like Ricard, Naseer, and Omar rolled into one person.  Could he have all of their good qualities?  Hopefully.  But if he does, he'll be a huge threat.


It looks like Survivor cast very well again, and I'm looking forward to these seasons.  I might come back after these seasons have aired and see how my first impressions were.  

2022 MLB Predictions

 I'm not going to lie, there was a part of me that thought the 2022 MLB season might not happen.  The lockout seemed to go on forever, but fortunately the two sides came together and reached an agreement.  

I'm going to quickly predict the order of each division, knowing in all likelihood I will be wrong about most.  But hey, it's still fun to do.  But I'm not going to pick Wins and Losses like I've done in the past, because all that matters is the order and who makes the playoffs.  Wild card teams will have an * by their name.

NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Miami Marlins
Comment: No wild card teams here as this remains the weakest division in the NL.  

NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals*
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Cincinnati Reds
Comment: The poor Reds are clearly selling farm and rebuilding.

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants*
3. San Diego Padres*
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Comment: It's an even year, so the Giants will have some success.

AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. New York Yankees*
3. Toronto Blue Jays*
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
Comment: This is going to be a crazy division, any of the top 4 could win the division,

AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Cleveland Guardians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals
Comment: This division isn't ripe with talent but I could see the non-division winners making a run at the wild card, at the very least.

AL West
1. Houston Astros
2. Seattle Mariners*
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Texas Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: This should be a fun division, as any team could surprise.  I feel hesitant putting the Athletics so low, because when I underestimate them, they surprise.  They did trade away Chapman and Olson, however.

Yep, that's right, I have my Seattle Mariners ending their 21 year postseason drought!  Thanks to the expanded playoffs, although I don't think they'd be the 6 seed in the AL.  Maybe 5.  Let's go through the playoffs:

NL Wild Card
(6) Padres vs. (3) Brewers: Padres win
(5) Cardinals vs. (4) Giants: Giants win

AL Wild Card
(6) Blue Jays vs. (3) White Sox: Blue Jays win
(5) Mariners vs. (4) Yankees: Mariners win

NL Divisional
(6) Padres vs. (2) Braves: Braves win
(4) Giants vs. (1) Dodgers: Dodgers win

AL Divisional
(6) Blue Jays vs. (2) Rays: Rays win
(5) Mariners vs. (1) Astros: Mariners win

League Championship Series
(2) Braves vs. (1) Dodgers: Dodgers win
(5) Mariners vs. (2) Rays: Rays win

World Series: Dodgers in 5

Well, my Mariners made the playoffs and made it to the league championship series!  Where yet again, they were denied their first ever trip to the World Series.  Oh well.  Here's who I predict will lead certain categories for the Mariners:

Average: Adam Frazier
Home Runs: Mitch Haniger
RBI: Mitch Haniger
Stolen Bases: JP Crawford
Wins: Marco Gonzales
Strikeouts: Robbie Ray
ERA: Robbie Ray
Saves: Paul Sewald
All-Stars: Jessie Winker, Mitch Haniger, Robbie Ray

Ten Things that went wrong for the Hawks in 2021

 The 2021 season was not an ideal one for the Seattle Seahawks.  After 17 weeks and just one game left, they sit with a record of 6-10 and no shot at the playoffs.  This is the first losing season of Russell Wilson's career and only the second time the Hawks have missed the playoffs since he became the starting quarterback.  So, what went wrong?  I have compiled a list of ten things that went wrong and, for good measure, I gave them a rating of 1-5 on how worried we should be that this may affect the Hawks going into next year, with 1 being not at all worried and 5 being extremely worried.  

1. Russell Wilson's finger injury
Worry scale: 2
It's safe to say that if not for Russ's finger injury, the season would be a lot different.  Russ came back and his finger was clearly still trying to heal, as we saw in his first two or three games back, causing the offense to be downright anemic.  Before this season, Russ had not missed a single start, so there's not much concern here, although there will be more if he gets hurt again next season (provided he stays in Seattle, of course).

2. Having historically bad time of possession
Worry scale: 5
The Hawks had a nagging problem throughout 2021 that, for too long, they were unable to fix.  That is the time of possession battle.  You generally want to hold onto the ball on offense more than your opponent, and the Hawks were historically bad at doing this.  This stems from the combination of the offense not being able to put together long, sustained drives, and the defense being unable to get off the field when they needed to.  This led to the defense wearing out at the end of the game and, in some games, the offense still showing signs of rust going into the 4th quarter.  This is definitely concerning, as this issue concerns both sides of the ball and the fundamentals regarding them.

3. Adjusting to a first-year offensive coordinator
Worry scale: 2
Shane Waldron was hired in the offseason, and for a team that wants to win now, he may not have been the wisest hire.  He had never been an offensive coordinator before, and that certainly showed at times this season.  The last two OC hires, Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, had previously been OC's before coming to Seattle.  Hopefully, Shane has learned a bit from this season and will improve as an OC going into 2022.

4. Injuries to too many notable players
Worry scale: 1
Injuries are a part of NFL football and always will be.  But sometimes you suffer an irregularly high amount of injuries, which hurts your season.  The Hawks not only lost Russ to injury for a few games, but stars and leaders Chris Carson and Jamal Adams suffered season-ending injuries, and the Hawks also had to deal with a number of players missing games due to COVID.  But this shouldn't be any cause for concern for the future as teams generally don't suffer through two consecutive injury-plagued seasons in a row.

5. Jason Myers' off year
Worry scale: 3
Myers made every field goal in 2020, so expectations were high for 2021.  However, he missed a few too many crucial field goals and several PAT's.  He was bound for at least a slightly down year, but his regression to the mean was far too severe.  Hopefully, he'll bounce back next season and look more like 2020 Myers, and hopefully, 2021 wasn't a sign of things to come for him.

6. Ken Norton Jr's schemes aren't working
Worry scale: 3
Sad to say, I think I would need more than two hands to count the number of times the Seahawks put a defensive tackle into coverage this season.  Ken Norton Jr, the Seahawks defensive coordinator, may take pride in the fact his team didn't give up a ton of points, but as of the time of this post, the Hawks had the 2nd worst pass defense in the NFL.  They consistently allow receivers to get open, afraid of possibly allowing the big plays.  As a defense, you need to tighten up and risk allowing big plays, because otherwise teams go up and down the field on you.  Ken Norton Jr. has not realized this, and we can only hope Pete Carroll will swallow his pride and decide to move on from KNJ.  The worry scale is at a 3 because he may or may not get fired, and I worry slightly that we won't move on from him.

7. No clutch factor this season
Worry scale: 2
The Hawks have been one of the luckier teams of the past 5-10 years, largely because their offense and defense were known for making big plays when the game was on the line.  That was not the case this season.  On multiple occasions, the offense was unable to come up with a game-winning drive, and the defense was unable to stop the opposition when it mattered.  This is highly unusual for the Hawks, who in years past thrived in close games.  Yet the Hawks are 0-5 in games decided by 6 points or less.  Just changing two of those five outcomes gives the Hawks a record of 8-8 going into the final week.  Also, two of those five close games were started by Geno Smith, and who knows if Russ would've been able to lead us to victories in those games, but our odds certainly would have been better with him.

8. No established running back until late
Worry scale: 2
The Seahawks are definitely better when they have an established back take the bulk of the carries and stay healthy for at least most of the season.  That was not the case this season.  Chris Carson started the season as the starter, but then a neck injury derailed his season.  Alex Collins took over, but he too got injured after several games.  Fortunately, Rashaad Penny emerged, but it was too little too late.  The Hawks likely won't have a running back even get 700 yards this season.  Although to be fair, the Hawks did not have a running back get 700 yards last year, either.

9. Poor offseason additions
Worry scale: 2
Gerald Everett was easily the best addition the Hawks made in the past offseason.  Gabe Jackson was solid, if unspectacular.  The 2021 draft class, meanwhile, leaves a lot to be desired.  Of course, there were only three draft picks, but Eskridge was hurt and under-utilized, Tre Brown showed signs of promise but got hurt, and Stone Forsythe barely saw the field.  There was not enough added in the past offseason.  The Hawks could have used another cornerback and edge rusher for sure. 

10. Pete Carroll
Worry scale: 3
This reason is simply Pete Carroll.  Is his "rah rah" style of coaching wearing thin?  Possibly.  It certainly isn't the best coaching style for a team that is struggling.  He's the oldest coach in the league, and his schemes and philosophies seem to be a bit dated by now.  I think he could still do well as an NFL executive, but it's time for him to retire from coaching duties.  This was certainly a trying year for him, and one could argue his worst coaching performance in Seattle.  

2021 was definitely a trying year for the Hawks.  I am in the boat that the Hawks do not need to rebuild this coming offseason.  Going into Week 18, they have a +21 point differential despite their 6-10 record.  They are a few close games from quite a different story this season.  If they can focus on the lines, draft smartly, and keep Russ (but maybe make a change at head coach or DC), they can quickly go back to being perennial contenders again in 2022.