2022 NFL and Seahawk Predictions

 The 2022 NFL season is almost here, and with that comes my annual NFL predictions.  Now, with the trade of Russell Wilson, expectations are much lower for the Seahawks.  Also, my excitement for watching the NFL this season is tempered, since my team is no longer a contender.  However, that still will not stop me from predicting records, division winners, playoff game winners, and a Super Bowl Champion.  

I will also predict each game of the Seahawks regular season after that.  An asterisk denotes a wild card team.  Here we go!

AFC EAST
1. Buffalo Bills: 13-4
2. Miami Dolphins: 10-7*
3. New England Patriots: 8-9
4. New York Jets: 6-11

Some people see the Jets making strides, but with all the news surrounding Zach Wilson, I don't.  I think the Dolphins have a fairly dynamic offense with Tyreek Hill, but not as much as they'd hope.  The Patriots are mediocre.  The Bills win the division fairly easily.

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens: 11-6
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
4. Cleveland Browns: 6-11

The Ravens have a bounceback year, as they always do after a disappointing one.  The Bengals regress a bit, I think part of their success last year was catching teams off guard.  The Steelers are competitive but without a true franchise QB this is the best they can be.  The Browns have way too much drama and an inexperienced coach like Stefanski won't be able to handle it too well.  They also won't have the services of Watson all season.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts: 10-7
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-9
3. Tennessee Titans: 7-10
4. Houston Texans: 5-12

A bit of a surprise here, eh?  Keep in mind, we see surprising results at the end of the year we didn't really expect in August.  The Colts should be good enough to win a bad division with veteran Matt Ryan.  The Jaguars take a huge step forward and T-Law looks much better.  The Titans struggle as Henry shows age and Tannehill is too mistake-prone.  The Texans still have a ways to go, but upset some teams.

AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6*
3. Denver Broncos: 9-8
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9

To sum up, they're going to beat each other up.  I doubt any team will have a division record better than 4-2.  The Chiefs win the tiebreaker over the Chargers.  Meanwhile, the Broncos narrowly miss the playoffs as Russ takes too long to acclimate to a new team.  The Raiders are extremely competitive but lose too many close games.

NFC EAST
1. Washington Commanders: 9-8
2. Dallas Cowboys: 8-9
3. New York Giants: 7-10
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 5-12

This division is a total crapshoot.  They haven't had a repeat division winner since the Eagles did it 2003-2004.  I think that trend continues.  The Cowboys lost too much, while Carson Wentz has a semi-resurgence in DC.  The Giants and Danny Dimes make strides but not enough.  The Eagles fall apart (hey, at least one team that isn't expected to does every season).

NFC NORTH
1. Minnesota Vikings: 12-5
2. Green Bay Packers: 10-7*
3. Detroit Lions: 9-8
4. Chicago Bears: 4-13

The Vikings win the division with new coach Kevin O'Connell helping spur Kirk Cousins to an amazing season.  The Packers regress without Davante Adams, and Aaron Rodgers either gets hurt or seems to lose interest.  The Lions have a resurgent season, but it's not enough.  The Bears are just bad and Fields looks lost.

NFC SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11-6
2. Carolina Panthers: 9-8*
3. New Orleans Saints: 7-10
4. Atlanta Falcons: 5-12

The Bucs get 5 or 6 of their wins in-division (meaning they are 5-6 or 6-5 outside the division), showing they can beat up their division still but not other teams too much.  The Panthers have a surprisingly good season with Baker Mayfield proving to be a capable starter.  The Saints are a shell of themselves without Brees and Payton, but still have some talent.  The Falcons, meanwhile, can surprise some teams but not a ton.

NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams: 13-4
2. San Francisco 49ers: 9-8*
3. Arizona Cardinals: 7-10
4. Seattle Seahawks: 7-10

The Rams run away with the division, as is almost expected.  The 49ers are decent with Lance but he isn't able to clutch up some wins for them late.  The Cardinals get off to a somewhat decent start (5-2 or so) but then lost 8 of their last 10.  The Seahawks are more competitive than people give them credit for and they win 7 games.

Before we get to the playoffs, here are the coaches I expect to be fired based on these standings:
- Nick Siriani, Eagles
- Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
- Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals
- Kevin Stefanski, Browns

Generally there's 6 or 7 firings, but those are the only coaches I see getting fired based on those standings.  There may be some coaches (Belichick, Reid, Carroll) that may retire.  Also, I can see Matt Rhule getting fired if the Panthers do any worse than what I predicted.  Even if the Titans struggle like I predict, it's hard to see a well-respected guy like Mike Vrabel getting fired.  Also, there are a few coaches that I don't see doing particularly well (Smith-Falcons, Eburflus-Bears, Saleh-Jets, Smith-Texans, Allen-Saints), but I think their teams would give them another year. 

All right, now time for the playoffs!  Here are the seedings as predicted by yours truly: 

AFC
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Miami Dolphins

NFC
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Washington Commanders
5. Green Bay Packers
6. San Francisco 49ers
7. Carolina Panthers

Now for the playoff matchups: 

Wild Card Round
AFC
(7) Dolphins at (2) Ravens: Ravens win
(6) Bengals at (3) Chiefs: Chiefs win
(5) Chargers at (4) Colts: Chargers win

NFC
(7) Panthers at (2) Vikings: Vikings win
(6) 49ers at (3) Buccaneers: 49ers win
(5) Packers at (4) Commanders: Commanders win

Divisional Round
AFC
(5) Chargers at (1) Bills: Bills win
(3) Chiefs at (2) Ravens: Ravens win

NFC
(6) 49ers at (1) Rams: Rams win
(4) Commanders at (2) Vikings: Vikings win

Conference Championships
AFC: Ravens at Bills: Ravens win
NFC: Vikings at Rams: Rams win

Super Bowl LVII: Ravens over Rams

I know, bold, right?  The Ravens seem to have a Super Bowl-caliber season once every 10-12 seasons, and it's getting to the point.  Rams are unable to repeat, just like the Seahawks nine seasons prior.

All right, now time for some award winners: 
MVP: Kirk Cousins, Vikings
OPOY: Justin Jefferson, Vikings
DPOY: TJ Watt, Steelers
OROY: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
DROY: Aidan Hutchinson, Lions
Coach of the Year: Kevin O'Connell, Vikings
Comeback player: Derwin James, Chargers

Now, for my Seahawks.  I will go game by game, predicting wins and losses.  Not going to do scores, way too unpredictable there.

vs. Broncos: L (0-1)
I think we hang with them tough and give Russ fits, but either are unable to come up with a late clutch score or they do.  

@ 49ers: W (1-1)
We always seem to do well against the Niners and I think K9 (Kenneth Walker III) pops off here.

vs. Falcons: W (2-1)
A low-scoring unexciting game results in a narrow win for the Hawks, something like 20-16.  

@ Lions: L (2-2)
I expect the Lions to be tough this season, but not unbeatable.  But too tough for the Hawks.

@ Saints: W (3-2)
Seahawks starting 2-1 on the road?  Yep.  Put that in the win column.  

vs. Cardinals: L (3-3)
Unfortunately, this is early-season Cardinals, so they'll be pretty tough.  

@ Chargers: L (3-4)
I don't see a way we win this at all.  I just hope our defense doesn't get too embarrassed.

vs. Giants: W (4-4)
Danny Dimes struggles against the 12s and the Seahawks win another close, low-scoring game.

@ Cardinals: W (5-4)
I'd like to think that this game starts the downfall for Kliff, Kyler, and the Cards.  

@ Buccaneers in Munich: L (5-5)
Boy this'll be a tough one.  The Bucs don't play many easy games outside of their division, so they will need to take this one.

vs. Raiders: L (5-6)
In what may be a close game, the Seahawks just struggle to defend against Carr, Adams, Waller, and Renfrow.  

@ Rams: L (5-7) 
The Seahawks head to LA hoping to not be on a 3-game skid, but it's just too tall of a task to overcome.  

vs. Panthers: L (5-8)
Rumors swirl about Pete Carroll's job security, but given the team's low expectations he is not fired.

vs. 49ers: W (6-8)
The Hawks beat the 49ers again in what may be a game that saves Pete Carroll's job.  Expect this to be a sloppy back-and-forth game.

@ Chiefs: L (6-9)
The Seahawks finish with a record of 0-4 against the AFC West (unsurprisingly).  But hey, at least they're 6-9.  Nice.

vs. Jets: W (7-9)
The Hawks know Robert Saleh and are able to exploit his tactics.  

vs. Rams: L (7-10)
It depends on if the Rams will actually need to win this game for playoff positioning, but I'll say they do since I have the Vikings on their heels.  The Hawks can't wrap up the season with a W.

There you have it, 7-10.  Do I feel I'm being a bit optimistic?  Sure.  But Pete Carroll teams are always competitive, enough to get 6 or 7 wins.  I think the Hawks surprise some teams and actually do fairly well against their own division (I have them at 3-3 in-division).  

It's interesting to enter a season with low expectations, but hey, it'll be hard to be disappointed, then!  Go Hawks!

2021 NFL Predictions! (With basements and ceilings)

The 2021 NFL season is almost upon us, and I thought I'd make my NFL Predictions differently this year.  I usually go division by division, predicting the W-L record of each team.  Instead, I'll go team by team, giving them a ceiling (best they could do) and a basement (worst they could do).  To figure out about my W-L prediction for them, generally, go somewhere in the middle.  I'll try not to have too large a gap between the ceiling and the basement, setting my max at five games.  And in case anyone has forgotten, this is the first season with seventeen games; therefore, we will have some odd W-L records.  Finally, some teams may finish lower than their basement if they lose their starting quarterback (or have multiple significant injuries) for a substantial amount of time; I went with each starting quarterback staying relatively healthy.

Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 6-11
Comment: In a tough division, 11 wins may seem like a stretch, but if one or two teams in the NFC West struggle, then the Cardinals could take advantage of that opportunity.  Alternatively, they could struggle to beat division foes if everyone else is playing decent football.

Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: I figure the Falcons' offense should be enough to carry them to a few wins.  The loss of Julio Jones is offset by drafting Kyle Pitts.  Their defense will be the difference between a 2nd place finish and possibly last place.  I may be more optimistic than most people with the Falcons, but I like the pairing of Arthur Smith and Matt Ryan.  If he can revive Ryan Tannehill's career, think of what he could do with the better arm of Matt Ryan.

Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 9-8
Comment: The Ravens are almost guaranteed a winning record with their talent and dynamic QB, Lamar Jackson, and balanced roster.  How high they fly will be determined by how well they do against the Browns and Steelers.  They got a good shot at winning their division, but they will have to hold off the talented Browns and always competitive Steelers.

Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 14-3
Basement: 10-7
Comment: The Bills are now one of the top-notch teams in the AFC.  They will be able to beat up on the Jets and take AT LEAST one game from each of the Patriots and the Dolphins.  However, I see them tripping up throughout the season a few times.  Their team is still a bit young, but they also remind me of that Chiefs team that lost the AFC Championship Game, but then the following season won the Super Bowl.

Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 9-8
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Panthers will be a scrappy bunch and certainly have some talent, but not enough to challenge Tampa Bay for the division (yet).  Their success will largely depend on how well Sam Darnold adjusts to playing in Carolina and if Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy.  Can Matt Rhule and Sam Darnold become a great coach/QB duo? Time will tell.

Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: If the Bears finish around their basement or lower, Matt Nagy and Ryan Grigson will have to find new jobs.  But I do not think they will.  A switch to Justin Fields could ignite the offense and team, similar to what we saw in San Francisco when they transitioned to Kaepernick in 2011.  They could win the NFC North, or they could plummet and wonder if they will ever find a franchise quarterback.

Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Even if Joe Burrow stays healthy all year, there's too much competition in their division AND conference.  And I could still see them struggling quite a bit, but I think they have enough talent to win a small handful of games, even if they lose Burrow again.  Let's hope Burrow can stay healthy all year to prove what he is capable of accomplishing.

Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Browns are a fickle bunch.  They could continue their rise, fall flat on their face (because let's face it, they're the Browns), or they could be somewhere in-between.  I think they will be somewhere in-between and grab a wild card spot (again).  

Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: These records are if Dak stays relatively healthy all season.  They have the most talent easily in the NFC East, and in my opinion, should win it this year.  If he struggles to stay healthy or the Cowboys struggle to handle their division, they may lose it again.

Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 8-9
Basement: 3-14
Comment: For the Broncos to get close to eight wins, they would need Teddy Two-Gloves to play his best football since Minnesota and make good connections with Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the receivers.  Or he could get hurt, Drew Lock struggles with a lack of confidence, and the Broncos get a top 5 pick.

Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 2-15
Comment: For the Lions to approach their ceiling, they will need another NFC North team to collapse.  Each of those three expects to sweep Detroit.  But it could happen.  Or, new coach Dan Campbell's message could get old fast, and the Lions become the worst team in the NFC.  

Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Aaron Rodgers drama will either affect them a little or a lot.  If it's a little, they will remain division champs and again get a top seed.  If it's a lot, they may lose the division title or maybe a playoff spot altogether.  They have a very talented roster, but Aaron certainly carries them at times.  The Packers currently have a situation where if one bad thing happens, it could lead to a chain reaction of bad things happening, ultimately derailing their entire season.

Houston Texans
Ceiling: 4-13
Basement: 0-17
Comment: It is not very often we see a team come into the season with such low expectations.  The Texans were terrible last year, and somehow they got even worse.  Their coaching hire of David Culley was incredibly uninspired, and who knows if and when Deshaun Watson will play.  When your basement is literally zero wins, you know you're in trouble.

Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Colts' two injuries to two of their most important players makes them hard to predict.  If the injuries don't last too long, they should remain competitive, but I see a ceiling of about 12 wins for them.  On the other hand, they could succumb to the injuries, but there is no way they lose more than ten games if that.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Trevor Lawrence should immediately give them a boost.  Also, the Texans being as awful as they are, should give the Jags one, probably two easy wins.  They do play a last-place schedule, which helps.  However, they lost running back Travis Etienne for the year, and their offensive line does not look good, so I do not expect much from them.  Even if Trevor Lawrence is a football god, there's no way they get to .500 or better.

Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 15-2
Basement: 10-7
Comment: The Chiefs are a borderline dynasty.  If they win the AFC conference championship again, I would argue they are a dynasty.  Even if Mahomes gets a little banged up as he did two years ago, they should still reach double-digit wins.  They are just too talented and too well-coached not to get there.

Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Raiders have some talented players, but I would bet on them finishing with seven wins or fewer if I was betting on them.  They rely a bit too much on Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr, and if either misses significant time, they are SOL.  Jon Gruden doesn't seem to be able to turn this team around.  They may compete or fall flat on their face.  

Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: It is tough to see the Chargers doing worse than seven wins if Herbert stays healthy after they rebuilt their offensive line.  Herbert set rookie records last year with one of the worst offensive lines in football.  New coach Brandon Staley shouldn't face too much challenge, and I bet the Chargers can reach second place.

Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Rams made a significant change at the quarterback position, acquiring former Lions signal-caller Matthew Stafford.  I feel there will be a learning curve, and Stafford will be marginally better than Goff if it all.  They should contend for a wild card spot at the very least, but a division title does not seem as easy as everyone else is predicting.

Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Fins gave Tua some more weapons and help, and he should at least be halfway decent.  They could be as good as a top wild card seed or missing out on the playoffs because the offense cannot come together.  The Bills seem to remain the superior team for the time being.

Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 6-11
Comment: I feel for Mike Zimmer.  His QB refuses to vaccinate.  The Vikings never show enough to escape the middle of the NFC North.  They remind me of the Mariners of the mid-2010s: never awful, some exciting players, but never good enough to do anything of note.  They may surprise and win ten games, or they may suck and lose eleven.  I think it will be somewhere in-between.

New England Patriots
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: We cannot forget that New England is a well-coached, well-run team.  They have an excellent offensive line, and Mac Jones in his rookie season should have a decent amount of success.  They may compete with or even surpass Miami for second place in the division.

New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Saints still have Sean Payton as their head coach, even if Drew Brees retired.  They won't be awful, but they sure will not feel like the same Saints of old.  We'll have to see how they do with Jameis Winston, but I'm guessing he might struggle against some of the more formidable NFC teams.

New York Giants
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: Even if everything goes right, I do not see the Giants taking the league by storm.  The problem is, I do not see everything going right.  The Giants seem like a fragile team that cannot handle even one bad thing going wrong, such as losing Saquon Barkley to injury.  I do like Joe Judge, but a midwest-type team may better suit him.

New York Jets
Ceiling: 6-11
Basement: 2-15
Comment: The Jets, like the Jaguars, are undergoing a slow rebuild.  They could not even lose enough to get the number one overall pick last season.  However, with Zach Wilson, they should be at least a tad better.  If they win close to six games, they should consider it an improvement and a start.

Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 8-9
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Many are predicting the Eagles to be awful, citing their uninspired coaching hire and lack of quality moves in the offseason.  I initially thought they'd be halfway decent, but they will undoubtedly have to undergo a rebuild.  If Jalen Hurts can carry them a la Deshaun Watson with the Texans, they might get 6, 7, or maybe even 8 wins.  But it's more likely they will hit double-digit losses and close to a top-five pick in next year's draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Steelers have somehow never had a losing season in the 14 seasons under Mike Tomlin.  Bill Cowher cannot say the same; he had three losing seasons.  But all good things must come to an end, right?  However, I feel like whenever I or anyone else counts the Steelers out, they have a surprisingly good season.  Therefore, I'm not exactly sure what to expect.  

San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: Last year was a disaster for the 49ers following their Super Bowl loss.  They hope to stay healthier this year.  With an impending QB change looming, how will that affect the team?  I know a lot of 49er players love Jimmy Garoppolo (George Kittle being one).  The 49ers are the one team that could be a Super Bowl contender if everything comes together, or they could have a repeat of last season.  They will be slightly better than last season, but they will have some speed bumps due to not having consistency at QB.

Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 9-8
Comment: The Hawks have never had a losing record in the Russell Wilson era, and it's tough to see that ending this season.  The overall consistency between the offense and the defense will make or break this season for the Hawks.  Can they be at their best at the same time?  If they can, the Hawks should win the division and get a top seed.  If not, they may be battling the Rams or 49ers for the division and may even lose it.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 15-2
Basement: 11-6
Comment: The defending Super Bowl champs return all 22 starters, unheard of in today's NFL.  They should be able to avoid the adjustment period they underwent in the first half of last season.  However, opposing teams will circle them on their schedules, resulting in getting the best from their opposition every week.  They won't go undefeated, but I'd be shocked if they didn't have the division wrapped up by mid-December.  

Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Titans are fortunate to play in a reasonably easy division.  Their success will largely be determined by how well they beat up their division foes.  They'll be in decent shape if they can sweep Houston and Jacksonville and take at least one from Indy.  I'm not counting on huge things from Tennessee this season, even with the addition of Julio Jones.  They will likely be a borderline playoff team.

Washington Football Team
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: WFT somehow won the division last year despite having very inconsistent quarterback play.  They were lucky to arguably have the best defensive line in the entire NFL last season.  And it should remain at least one of the best.  They could challenge for the division crown, but they will need a quarterback, Fitzpatrick or Heinicke, to step up and do enough necessary to win.

Now let's predict the playoffs:
AFC Seedings
1) Kansas City
2) Buffalo
3) Baltimore
4) Indianapolis
5) Tennessee
6) Cleveland
7) New England

NFC Seedings
1) Tampa Bay
2) Seattle
3) Green Bay
4) Dallas
5) Los Angeles Rams
6) San Francisco
7) Chicago

AFC Wild Card Round
(7) New England at (2) Buffalo: Buffalo wins
(6) Cleveland at (3) Baltimore: Cleveland wins
(5) Tennessee at (4) Indianapolis: Tennessee wins

NFC Wild Card Round
(7) Chicago at (2) Seattle: Seattle wins
(6) San Francisco at (3) Green Bay: San Francisco wins
(5) Los Angeles Rams at (4) Dallas: Los Angeles Rams win

AFC Divisional Round
(6) Cleveland at (1) Kansas City: Kansas City wins
(5) Tennessee at (2) Buffalo: Buffalo wins

NFC Divisional Round
(6) San Francisco at (1) Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins
(5) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Seattle: Seattle wins

Conference Championships
AFC: Buffalo at Kansas City: Buffalo wins
NFC: Seattle at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins

Super Bowl LVI: Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins

Award winners:
MVP: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay
OPOY: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
DPOY: TJ Watt, Pittsburgh
OROY: Justin Fields, Chicago
DROY: Micah Parsons, Dallas
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay
Comeback player of the year: Dak Prescott, Dallas

Coaches Fired:
Vic Fangio, Denver
David Culley, Houston
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona
Jon Gruden, Las Vegas

I'll try to come back and see how many of the 32 teams I correctly called their ceiling and basement, making sure to point out any teams that fell outside the range.  See you then!

2020 NFL Predictions

The MLB season is only in it's third month, but the NFL season is less than a week away.  Seems weird.  That's what happens when a global pandemic postpones or cancels different sporting leagues.  

I usually do fairly well with these predictions, so I will continue, going division by division, giving each team a predicted Win/Loss record.  I'll predict the playoffs under the new seven team per conference playoff format, and then some predicted award winners.

I usually go game by game for the Seahawks, but I'm usually way off.  The Hawks will no doubt win some games I predict them to lose, and they will lose a game or two (at least) that I predict them to win.  Instead, I will just talk about the team briefly and what I expect from each position group.  

So without further ado, the NFL win/loss record predictions:

* = Wild Card

AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills, 10-6
3. Miami Dolphins, 9-7*
3. New England Patriots, 7-9
4. New York Jets, 6-10

Summary: For the first time since 2000, Tom Brady does not enter the season as the Patriots starting quarterback.  This is a huge opportunity for anyone else to claim the division, and with Buffalo being a 2019 playoff team, they have the best opportunity.  I think they will be solid, if unspectacular.  The Dolphins surprise a lot of people and make the playoffs, riding a win streak after switching to Tua at QB.  The Patriots aren't awful, but they are a far cry from the team that won the Super Bowl a few years ago.  That leaves the Jets as the odd man out.  Sam Darnold does decently, but the defense falls apart and Adam Gase is fired.  

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens, 14-2
2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-6*
3. Cleveland Browns, 9-7*
4. Cincinnati Bengals, 3-13

Summary: The Ravens enter as clear favorites.  Can Lamar repeat his 2019 regular season success?  Odds are yes.  The Steelers, being a (mostly) veteran team and getting their veteran QB back, return to the playoffs and play solid ball.  The Browns barely make the playoffs, but only because the rest of the AFC is trash. The Bengals tread water but realize they like Burrow; it's just they need to get him help.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts, 11-5
2. Houston Texans, 8-8
3. Tennessee Titans, 7-9
4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1-15

Summary: Probably the weakest division in the AFC (again).  The Colts, with new QB Philip Rivers, claim the title.  The Texans struggle a bit without many offensive weapons.  The Titans realize they shouldn't have handed Ryan Tannehill that contract.  The Jaguars, meanwhile, struggle mightily but are a fun watch with Gardner Minshew, and they win their first game in week 17 against a Colts team whose playoff position is settled at that point.  

AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 12-4
2. Denver Broncos, 8-8
3. Oakland Raiders, 8-8
4. Los Angeles Chargers, 6-10

Summary: This might be the most surprising division I've predicted.  The Chiefs are still clear front-runners, although as defending champs they will be the target of many.  The Broncos aren't able to really make a statement as injuries and opt-outs hurt them.  The Raiders have an up and down season and they are still left with many questions (Is Carr the future?).  The Chargers bad luck rears its ugly head again (they've lost Derwin James to injury already again), and Tyrod Taylor is unable to do anything to right their sinking ship.  Justin Herbert is given the reigns in the later part of the season.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles, 9-7
2. Dallas Cowboys, 7-9
3. Washington Football Team, 6-10
4. New York Giants, 4-12

Summary: The worst division in football again.  The Eagles struggle with injuries and inconsistency again, but are decent enough to win the division.  The Cowboys are fun to watch for the most part, but are clearly missing their once dominant O-Line.  Washington is surprisingly good defensively, with Chase Young breaking Jevon Kearse's rookie sacks record.  The Giants aren't awful, but Daniel Jones has a set back and the Giants start to wonder if he's the future.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers, 11-5
2. Minnesota Vikings, 9-7*
3. Chicago Bears, 7-9
4. Detroit Lions, 7-9

Summary: Hell hath no fury like an Aaron Rodgers scorned.  The Packers as a whole aren't quite as good, but Aaron Rodgers clearly carries them to a few wins, as drafting a possible successor is enough to light a fire under him.  The Vikings keep pace all year but fall a tad short.  The Bears and Lions show flashes, but it's still not enough.  

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints, 13-3
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 10-6*
3. Atlanta Falcons, 6-10
4. Carolina Panthers, 6-10

Summary: The Saints prosper in times of uncertainty, so why not now?  The Bucs with Tom Brady are fun to watch, but lose some games they probably should have won.  The Falcons struggle with the Todd Gurley experiment, and the Panthers aren't awful in Matt Rhule's first year as coach.  

NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers, 11-5
2. Seattle Seahawks, 10-6*
3. Arizona Cardinals, 8-8
4. Los Angeles Rams, 8-8

Summary: In the NFL's most well-rounded division, the 49ers come out on top again.  They prove they are clearly too well-built to be a one-year wonder.  The Seahawks, meanwhile, fall one game short of the division title (again) as they lose in week 17 to those 49ers.  The Cardinals have some bright moments and surprise some teams, while the Rams falter down the stretch and are left scratching their heads.  

Before we get to the playoffs, what happens before the playoffs every year?  Oh yeah, "Black Monday".  The day many coaches get fired.  These are the following coaches I think will be fired by season's end:

Adam Gase, Jets
Doug Marrone, Jaguars
Matt Patricia, Lions
Dan Quinn, Falcons

And one coach resigns/retires...

Bill Belichick, Patriots

That's it.  Usually it's closer to half a dozen, but I feel the rest of the coaches are either a possible future hall of famer (Reid, Carroll, Harbaugh), will have or recently had success, or will be given more time to turn things around (any coaches hired this offseason, Taylor).  But yes, Bill Belichick retires after this season, not wanting to go through a rebuild.

Now the NFL seedings:

AFC
1. Ravens, 14-2
2. Chiefs, 12-4
3. Colts, 11-5
4. Bills, 10-6
5. Steelers, 10-6
6. Dolphins, 9-7
7. Browns, 9-7

NFC
1. Saints, 13-3
2. 49ers, 11-5
3. Packers, 11-5
4. Eagles, 9-7
5. Seahawks, 10-6
6. Buccaneers, 10-6
7. Vikings, 9-7

AFC Wild Card Round
(7) Browns at (2) Chiefs: Chiefs win
Would be a very high-scoring and exciting game, but the Chiefs come out on top, predictably.  The Browns aren't good enough in the back end of their defense to stop Mr. Mahomes.

(6) Dolphins at (3) Colts: Colts win
In a battle of a veteran against a rookie, the veteran usually wins in the playoffs.  That remains the case.  Colts advance.

(5) Steelers at (4) Bills: Steelers win
The Steelers beat the young Bills to prevent them from their first playoff win in 25 years.

NFC Wild Card Round
(7) Vikings at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
In a rematch of last year's divisional round game, the 49ers win again, although perhaps not quite as easily.  

(6) Buccaneers at (3) Packers: Packers win
Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady in the playoffs, does it get better than that?  Rodgers prevails as Brady's old bones can't handle Lambeau's cold.  

(5) Seahawks at (4) Eagles: Seahawks win
Yet another rematch from last year (and at the same locale as well).  The Hawks prevail again, this time with a healthy Carson Wentz under center all game.  Russ goes off, hitting DK and Tyler for long bombs.  

AFC Divisional Round
(5) Steelers at (1) Ravens: Ravens win
Lamar Jackson finally gets his first playoff win in his third try.  The Ravens entire team is too much for the team from Pittsburgh.

(3) Colts at (2) Chiefs: Chiefs win
The Chiefs are too much for the Colts, but it's fairly close.

NFC Divisional Round
(5) Seahawks at (1) Saints: Saints win
Will there even be a crowd (and therefore crowd noise) in this instance?  Either way, I think the Saints beat the Hawks.  I can't remember the last time the Hawks won a playoff game in a dome (if ever).  

(3) Packers at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
The 49ers prove too much for the Packers yet again.  I think this would be a closer contest, but the same result as last year's NFC Conference Championship matchup.

AFC Championship Game
(2) Chiefs (1) Ravens: Ravens win
The Ravens take control early by harassing Patrick Mahomes and claim their first AFC Championship since 2012.

NFC Championship Game
(2) 49ers at (1) Saints: Saints win
Think of last year's matchup between these two teams in the regular season.  Exciting like that, except this time it's in the Saints' favor.  The Saints return to the big dance.  

Super Bowl LV
Ravens vs. Saints: Saints win
In a fantastic matchup, the Saints prevail, giving Drew Brees one more Super Bowl ring before he retires.  He rides off into the sunset a happy man.  

Well, if my Seahawks couldn't win it all, I'd be happy for the Saints and Drew Brees.  Now some award predictions:

MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Offensive PotY: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Defensive PotY: Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers
Offensive RotY: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Defensive RotY: Chase Young, Washington Football Team
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton


Seahawks: 

Well, I know they've made moves to try to reclaim the NFC division title (trading for Jamal Adams), but the 49ers are just going to be a tough hurdle to get over.  Plus, the line play will prevent the Hawks from soaring to heights or even establishing any kind of long winning streak.  Position by position though, here's what I think:

Quarterback - Russ will be magical once again.  He will have to be decisive and quick in his decision-making, and sometimes he won't be.  He'll be in the talks for MVP yet again, but without winning the division it will be difficult to even get votes.

Running back - Can Carson stay healthy all year?  Will we see Rashaad Penny at all?  How will Carlos Hyde be?  All those questions will be answered, and I think we'll get a mixed bag.  Carson will probably do another 1,000 yards or close to.  Deejay Dallas may even see some time and surprise, prompting for us to probably move on from Penny.

Wide Receiver - This may be the best receiving corps we've had in my time watching the Hawks.  We all know about Lockett.  DK should take a giant step forward this year, and hopefully he can hold on to the ball a bit better.  Dorsett should be like a flashier Jaron Brown.  Will we get Josh Gordon back?  Even if we do, he probably won't have a huge impact.

Tight End - This is an interesting group.  As long as either Dissly or Olsen are healthy, we should be fine, although preferably both remain healthy.  Hollister will make a good #3 or 2 if need be.  

Offensive Line - It will be interesting to see.  Can Duane Brown hold up still at his age?  Time will tell, but he might miss some games I feel.  I've never really liked Ethan Pocic, and I think he'll struggle.  Damien Lewis will be interesting to watch as he's a rookie.  As long as this line isn't god awful, the Hawks should be fine.

Defensive Line - Can they get some pressure on the quarterback this year, please?  I don't care who.  It sucks that another rookie lineman is again injured (Taylor), but hopefully Collier proves why we drafted him so high.  I just want the D-Line to be adequate, that's all.

Linebacker - Man what a loaded unit.  This group is so stacked Shaquem Griffin had to go to the practice squad.  Jordyn Brooks will hopefully get some time to shine.  Will Cody Barton get some time as well?  We shall see.

Defensive Backs - My what a stacked unit they've become.  Will Dunbar be able to start all year?  Hopefully.  And Jamal Adams... well I bet his impact will be felt quickly.  Can't forget about Diggs or Griffin, two very capable players. 

Special Teams: Jason Myers, don't miss gimmie field goals.  Mike Dickson, don't shank any punts.  Cover teams, don't allow any return touchdowns.  That's all I ask.  Thanks.

Well, that is it for my 2020 predictions!  Hopefully the Hawks exceed my predictions for them.  If the line play is decent and the rest of the units play to their potential, there's a shot the Hawks could get the division and a top seed.  Should be fun to watch (despite no fans, at least for now).  

2018 MLB and Mariners Predictions!

The 2018 MLB season is fast approaching and Spring Training is underway.  I sometimes wait until right before the MLB (or Mariners) opener to post predictions, but this time I thought I'd get a jump start on it and make my predictions now.  I'm going to predict how each division will go (plus playoffs), and will also predict award winners and go further into detail on how the Seattle Mariners season will go.  Let's just say there will be a few surprises.  I'm going to start with the NL East and move west so that the Mariners and the AL West are last.

* = Wild Card

NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Miami Marlins
Comment: The Nats remain the favorite boasting the best overall roster in the division.  The Mets could make a run but their pitching would have to hold up health-wise, something they haven't really proven to do.  The Phillies should be improved from 2017 as they're a young team on the rise.  The Braves are still a ways a way, and the Marlins are in complete rebuild mode and would surprise no one if they finished with the worst record in MLB.

NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs*
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Cincinnati Reds
Comment: Every so often, the Cardinals surprise everyone and have a great season.  That's what makes them a popular team to root for.  I think that will happen this year.  The Cubs will meanwhile limp into the playoffs as the wild card.  The Brewers will be improved with Cain and Yelich, but it won't be enough to get a playoff spot.  The Pirates traded Andrew McCutcheon and may be heading for a rebuild.  The Reds still are a few pieces away from contending.

NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks*
3. San Francisco Giants
4 .Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Comment: The Dodgers boast the best roster in the NL, if not all of MLB.  The D-Backs will do their best to prove they're not a one-year wonder.  The Giants will be improved, but not the same Giants they used to be.  The Rockies will compete but will be needing pitching help (as usual).  The Padres will be the Padres.

AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Comment: The Red Sox will be knocking the cover off the ball, boasting the best team batting average.  The Blue Jays will compete for a wild card for most of the year but fall short.  The Yankees will have a disappointing season in Aaron Boone's first year as manager, as their expectations become too much.  The Orioles will compete but play in too good of a division.  The Rays will be perhaps the best last placed team in baseball.

AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Comment: The Indians remain the favorites in not a particularly strong division anymore.  The Twins will want to prove last year was not a fluke.  The White Sox should hang around but be missing a few pieces to really go on a run.  The Royals are losing pieces left and right (Cain, Hosmer) and may be headed for a rebuild.  The Tigers proved they're headed for a small rebuild by trading Justin Verlander last season.

AL WEST
1. Houston Astros
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim*
3. Seattle Mariners*
4. Texas Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: The Astros are built for the long haul, and it would be quite the surprise if they didn't compete for the division crown again.  The Angels, after acquiring Shohei Ohtani, will be improved and grab a hold of the Wild Card.  Meanwhile, the Mariners surprise most everyone, and just when people aren't expecting them to do much they go on  a September run and claim the second wild card over the Twins and Blue Jays.  The Rangers have a slightly down season.  The A's continue the churning of their roster but will compete.

So onto the playoffs.  The Wild Card games first.

NL WILD CARD: Cubs at Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks win
The D-Backs win a game they are the underdogs at home in, and relish their first playoff victory in quite some time.

AL WILD CARD: Mariners at Angels: Angels win
In a heated division rival matchup, the Mariners don't muster much offense despite a decent performance from James Paxton.  So the Mariners make the playoffs, but only as a wild card and will still hold the distinction of not HOSTING a playoff game in over 17 years.

Now the divisional round.  Who will have the edge?

NL Divisional Round
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win
Cardinals vs. Nationals: Nationals win

AL Divisional Round
Angels vs. Astros: Astros win
Indians vs. Red Sox: Indians win

Comment: The Dodgers take care of their division rival as do the Astros.  The Nats take care of the Cardinals in a 5 game series.  The Indians/Red Sox series features Terry Francona taking on his former team, and it proves to make a difference as the Indians "upset" the Sox.

NL Championship Series:
Nationals vs. Dodgers: Nationals Win

AL Championship Series:
Indians vs. Astros: Astros Win

Comment: The NL hasn't had a team win the pennant that had won it recently since the Giants, and haven't had a repeat NL Champ since the 08-09 Phillies.  The Dodgers therefore blow it.  Also, with the Nationals making the World Series, the Mariners become the only current franchise to have never won a league pennant.  The Indians/Astros series is a classic, goes to 7 games, and the Astros win Game 7 in walk off fashion thanks to a George Springer double.

World Series: Nationals vs. Astros: Nationals in 7
In a matchup of two teams that have changed names/leagues in the past 20 years (Nationals used to be the Expos, the Astros used to be in the NL), the Nationals come out on top, thanks to a diving catch by Bryce Harper which saves multiple runs from scoring in game 7.  The Nats win their first World Series thanks to World Series MVP Bryce Harper, who hits four homers in the series.

Now, time for some awards:
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, Nationals
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Red Sox
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strausberg, Nationals
AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani, Red Sox
NL Rookie of the Year: Tyler O'Neill, Cardinals (Ouch)
AL Manager of the Year: Scott Servais, Mariners
NL Manager of the Year: Dave Martinez, Nationals

Comment: I usually miss on most or all of these, but it's fun nonetheless.  Mike Trout is always a safe pick for MVP.  His phenom counterpart in the NL, Bryce Harper, is a safe pick for MVP as well.  Chris Sale is another safe pick (I know, I know), and on the Nats, Strausberg, not Scherzer, will be their best pitcher.  Shohei Ohtani has a great rookie campaign and wins ROY.  Tyler O'Neill who last year at this time was in the Mariners farm system, gets called up and becomes a rookie sensation and wins NLROY.  Scott Servais wins Manager of the Year for guiding the Mariners to their first playoffs in 17 years.  Dave Martinez wins the NL award for guiding the Nats to their first World Series championship in club history.


So how will the Mariners get there?  Hard to say.  You can often point at bad luck for being a reason for the Mariners not making the playoffs in a lot of recent seasons, so I'll say this season luck will be on their side.  They will hang around for most of the season, never winning too many or losing too many in a row.  September though, they go on a run and win a lot of close games, with Edwin Diaz at this point being lights out.  I just think that whenever we expect them to do well they disappoint, so this season most fans aren't expecting much, so I'll say they surprise.  Finally, some Mariners awards and stat leaders:

MVP: Robinson Cano
Cy Young: James Paxton
Unsung hero: Dee Gordon
Average: Cano
Homers: Nelson Cruz
Stolen Bases: Gordon
Hits: Cano
Strikeouts: Paxton
Wins: Felix Hernandez
Saves: Edwin Diaz

Movie May 2016!

Well, without much notice (except with my close friends) I completed my 2nd ever Movie May!  For the second time I watched a movie every day in the month of May, the last time I did this being exactly two years ago in 2014.  This time I watched films that totaled 57 hours and 41 minutes, so I watched 2 hours and 45 minutes more of films than last time.  That's like two extra films!  And like last time I didn't always finish the film the same day but I started a new one each day.

Also, I gave them an average rating of 7.35, as compared to 6.67 last time.  Either I saw fewer crappy films or I've become more lenient, or both.  I watched 7 films on Netflix (4 less than last time), 12 films that Amanda or I already owned (6 more than last time), 8 that I rented either from DVD.com (AKA Netflix in the mail) or RedBox/DVDXpress (3 fewer than last time), 2 in theaters (1 less than last time) and 2 that I borrowed from a friend (Thanks Lowen!). 

Without further ado,  the list of movies I watched in order and my short reviews of them:

May 1: The Joneses - 6/10
So these four people are paid to pretend to be a family and try to get people to buy the cool stuff they have.  Is that even legal?  All in all though it was decent.  It did drag on at times, but I enjoyed certain parts.  I always like a recognizable cast which included David Duchovny, Demi Moore, and Amber Heard.  But the cast wasn't enough to keep me interested the whole time.

May 2: Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - 8/10
Tom Cruise has still got it.  There will come a point in time he's too old for the role of Ethan Hunt, but not yet.  The plot did get a bit confusing at times and there were some things that made me shake my head, but all in all it kept me intrigued.  The opening with Tom/Ethan hanging onto the door of the jet is as good as it gets.  And the stunt where he drops into an underwater security vault is incredible.

May 3: Ant-Man - 7/10
While I really enjoyed it and I laughed at least 10 times throughout the film, I didn't find it to be that well-made of a superhero film.  I was skeptical of Paul Rudd as the title character, but I turned out to love the choice.  There were a few head scratchers and plot holes like if Hank Pym has the ability to make anything larger, why does he have trouble doing ANYTHING?  Anyway, this was like a tamer version of Deadpool.  Still funny (maybe not as much so), but the lead character in red and black with a semi-dark past. 

May 4: Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back - 6/10
I don't know what it was... but if a movie that's supposed to be funny doesn't make me laugh, then I don't enjoy it.  It was all right.  I cared for the characters.  It was more amusing than anything.  It's just over the top comedies always fall flat with me.  But I loved all of the cameos and big names in this film, from Mark Hamill and Carrie Fisher to Jason Biggs and James Van Der Beek. 

May 5: Kingsman: The Secret Service - 9/10
Wow, this film certainly did to spy films with Kick Ass did for super hero films.  If you like action movies and don't mind a bit of gore/violence, this film is definitely worth a watch.  Taron Egerton is fantastic in the lead role and the cast was filled out with tremendous talent including Samuel L. Jackson, Colin Firth, Mark Strong, and a small role from Mark Hamill (again!).  I'm very glad to see they're making a sequel.  The camera work and the choreography in this film both top notch.

May 6: Ted 2 - 7/10
I'm not sure if it was as good as the first, but it was close.  I laughed a few times, but not as much as I would've hoped.  Just another typical Seth McFarlane comedy--I tell ya, his humor doesn't surprise me or make me laugh that hard anymore.  Time for some new material, Seth.  But at least with the story I was invested in the characters, for the most part.  They don't need to make a Ted 3 unless Seth has a very clever idea.

May 7: Across the Universe - 8/10
I watched this because 1) I had been meaning to for years and 2) a friend recommended it to me and I gotta say I enjoyed it.  The Beatles covers they did were spot on, and I really felt what it was to be like to be young and in the heart of the Vietnam War era.  My favorite covers were "I Get By with a Little Help from my Friends" "Let it Be" and "Come Together".  I had no idea Joe Cocker played the bum that sang the beginning part of "Come Together". 

May 8: A Teacher - 3/10
I only watched this because I was pressed on time and it was only 75 minutes long.  Fortunately it was only 75 minutes long, because it was not that good.  Everything in the technical categories (Cinematography, editing, music) was poor and it just ends with the teacher being upset that the school found out about her relationship with her student.  Very lackluster film.

May 9: Captain America: Civil War - 9/10
Affectionately called "The Avengers 2.5", CA: CW definitely lived up to the hype.  I don't think it quite exceeded anyone's expectations, but the fight scenes were a delight to watch.  The pacing was a bit off and it was a tad too long, though.  Also, it seemed like just a bit too much of fan service, trying to make the fan of every superhero happy.  But it excelled in the technical aspects and the Russo brothers did another great job.

May 10: Everest - 7/10
Everest was kind of a letdown for me, to be honest.  Although, to be fair, that was mostly because I was expecting more shocking deaths (from falls, avalanches, etc.) than ones were they slowly die from the cold or lack of "O" (oxygen).  It was nice to see that it was based off a true story.  The rating isn't lower because this was the first movie of the month to make me tear up, when Rob (Jason Clarke) was talking to his wife Jan (Keira Knightley) for the final time.  Very well done, great acting.  Although it was puzzling how two of the climber's wives (Rob's wife Jan and Beck's wife Peach) were played by well-known actresses (Peach being played by Robin Wright).  They had small parts and I think could've easily been played by an unknown to save money.

May 11: The Peanuts Movie - 7/10
This was a cute, family-friendly movie.  Hard not to root for Charlie Brown.  But the adventures with Snoopy and his writing/flying just seemed unnecessary and pointless, but how else were they going to include fan-favorite Snoopy into scenes?  Also, the naivety of the characters, especially Charlie Brown, reminded me of the old kids Nickelodeon shows like Rugrats and Hey Arnold, where we see just how much children have to learn about the world. 

May 12: The Bourne Identity - 8/10
Yes, I have never seen any of the "Bourne" films.  The first one was actually pretty good.  It's a good idea to use for a plot to have your main character have amnesia, that way we learn along with him what his name is, what he did, etc.  Chris Cooper again was typecast as the asshole (See also October Sky, American Beauty)--is he even capable of playing a nice guy?  I also didn't understand Clive Owen's character or his motives... like why did he want Mombosi dead?  But good action that kept me engaged, for the most part.

May 13: Beautiful Creatures - 5/10
I only watched this because of Alden Ehrenreich and how he was cast as Han Solo, just like for the last Movie May I watched "Inside Llewyn Davis" for Oscar Isaac and Adam Driver.  Unlike Inside Llewyn Davis, however, this was not that good.  As for Ehrenreich, I think he looks more like a young Jack Nicholson than a young Harrison Ford.  But we'll see.  His acting was good, though.  But the film itself was only so-so at best, as supernatural love stories don't really interest me that much.  Found myself losing interest on multiple occasions.

May 14: The Jungle Book -  8/10
I was impressed with the CGI and voice acting talents in this film.  Neel Sethi played a really good Mowgli as well.  Not sure if it was quite appropriate for kids, but at least they kept the violence to a minimum.  They sang snippets of some of the original's songs, but what's the point if you're not going to do the whole thing?  Anyway, I thoroughly enjoyed this film more than I thought I would and I think they did about as good of a job as they could have with a live action remake.  Some of the voice casts (Bill Murray, Christopher Walken) were PERFECT.

May 15: Lincoln - 7/10
Holy crap was this long.  But I will say Daniel Day-Lewis is well deserving of his Oscar.  To anyone who's seen House of Cards, this was basically like a really, really long House of Cards episode, with Lincoln instead of Underwood.  The pacing was so slow and drawn out, and there wasn't a ton to get excited about.  I guess it gets a 7 for DDL's performance alone.  He was tremendous.

May 16: Peep World - 7/10
As opposed to Lincoln, this film was too short and could have used more depth.  But the cast, fantastic.  Michael C. Hall, Rainn Wilson, Sarah Silverman, Kate Mara, all terrific.  Also, to finish on a sort-of climax was a bit cliché for the 2010's.  Leave it up to our imagination?  Gee, thanks.  Too many loose ends we are left wondering about, but the acting and cast kept me engaged.

May 17: The Bourne Supremacy - 7/10
I didn't like this one quite as much as the first one (Identity), but it was decent nonetheless.  I lost interest a few times and the plot here was more confusing than the first one.  But it had an exciting opening act and the chase scenes, especially the last one in Russia, were very well done. 

May 18: Concussion - 8/10
Will Smith was outstanding as Bennet Omalu, a doctor who emigrated from Nigeria.  There were actually times I forgot it was the former Fresh Prince of Bel-Air.  The only thing that ever gave it away was his appearance.  I wish they had a little more backstory, and the casting of Luke Wilson as Roger Goodell... I mean... seriously?  His brother Owen would've been a (slightly) better choice.  But this is a must watch for any NFL fan. 

May 19: Sex Tape - 6/10
So the premise wasn't too bad, maybe a bit out there, with a couple trying to get back the copies of their sex tape.  But it was a little over the top for me.  And being extorted by a 10 year old?  Give me a break.  But it did have some funny moments and Rob Lowe stole the show, in my opinion.  His bad haircut and narcissism made him quite the character.  But not worth watching again... at least not for a while.

May 20: Raiders of the Lost Ark - 7/10
Like the Bourne movies, I had yet to see an Indiana Jones movie... and I gotta say I wasn't THAT impressed.  The classic Indy theme was easily the best part, and the traps and action scenes may have been ahead of their time, slightly, but I often found myself losing track or losing focus of the film.  I liked the scene where Indy carjacked the truck that had the Ark.  But the plot didn't keep me hooked.  Maybe on future viewings I will like it more.

May 21: Daddy's Home - 5/10
I found myself caring for Brad (Will Ferrell), but once he had his drunken rant and antics at halftime of the basketball game, I was done.  Also, driving a motorcycle through a home (up a set of stairs!?) and out the window, only sustaining a few cuts and bruises?  And the story of how he wasn't able to have children.... even if that was possible for him to lose his fertility that way, wouldn't he be able to sue?  So many head shaking moments, not enough laughs.

May 22: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - 9/10
Boy is this movie trippy.  Basically, Joel (Jim Carrey) is hurt his ex-girlfriend Clementine (Kate Winslet) erased him from her memories and he does the same so he can move on, but in the process regrets his decision and while he is dreaming tries to find some way to get himself to remember her before it's too late.  The things that happens in this dream state are on par with Inception with how freaky and imaginative it is.  I give this film a 9 for that alone.  It was a little hard to follow at times, trying to keep track at what point in their relationship the scene is from, but multiple well-deserved viewings would help.

May 23: Reservoir Dogs - 9/10
Yes, I hadn't seen this Tarantino flick yet (nor the Kill Bill movies), but this marks the fifth of his movies I've seen.  Basically every one of his movies can be summed up like this: Almost everyone dies.  The end.  Anyway, drama and acting phenomenal, and I of course didn't guess the rat right (I was thinking Mr. Pink).  The torture scene with "Stuck in the Middle with You" was iconic and it's too bad this film was only 99 minutes long.  Hard to believe this was QT's first motion picture as director, seems like it was done by an experienced director.

May 24: Groundhog Day - 9/10
A classic Bill Murray/Harold Ramis film I didn't see as a kid, but I'm glad I waited because I know there would be a few things I wouldn't have understood as a kid.  I love the concept--what would you do if you lived the same day over and over, with no tomorrow?  The story arc goes from confusion to contempt to acceptance.  I wish there was some explanation why it happened to him, but it's not a big deal.  I can't imagine anyone else in the lead role.

May 25: White House Down - 7/10
Out of the two White House is under attack films in 2013 I enjoyed this one more (than "Olympus Has Fallen").  The people attacking this time are mostly Americans, upset at the President or country for various reasons.  The explosions/CGI could've used a bit of work, and was Jamie Fox the best casting?  He doesn't seem... authoritative enough.  Will Smith would've been a bit more believable.  But the 2 hour and 11 min film kept me engaged the whole time.

May 26: Captain Phillips - 10/10
Ok, it's not a perfect film, but it had everything I wanted: Drama, action, good acting, a few heartbreaking moments, you name it.  Hanks was brilliant as usual.  It's too bad we didn't get to see Hanks reunite with his wife, but we've seen that in movies before and we know how it goes.  I just remember feeling stuffy as if I were in the lifeboat with Hanks and the Somalis.  Very well made film.  I felt like I was along with the crew (and then just Captain Phillips) the whole time.

May 27: Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom - 7/10
Definitely hard to watch at times, with the burning sacrifice, the eating of the gross things, and many other instances of bad guys dying horrific deaths.  But I enjoyed it just as much as RotLA, maybe even more so.  Instead of Nazis and Egypt it was Chinese and India.  Don't see what Indy sees in "Willie", as she was very high maintenance and not the least bit helpful.  I really liked Short Round, he was a nice and welcome addition.

May 28: Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure - 7/10
I knew going in not to take it too seriously, and I'm glad I didn't because I definitely enjoyed it.  It's too bad Alex Winter hasn't had nearly the career Keanu Reeves had, but at least one of them did.  Not exactly historically accurate or believable, I still found myself rooting for Bill and Ted despite them being a couple of knuckleheads.  George Carlin was really good as their mentor, Rufus.  Too bad he wasn't able to be his usual vulgar self, haha. 

May 29: 2001: A Space Odyssey - 9/10
Yep, I had never seen this.  At first I was thinking of how boring and sometimes uneventful it was, but after reading about the film afterward and understanding what was going on, I gotta say, WOW.  I didn't understand the monoliths at first because they always seemed so out of place, but I guess that was the point.  This is definitely a film you need to watch more than once, but at 2 hours and 29 minutes in length, that's no easy task.  It did get really trippy at times, making me go, "Woah...".  HAL was definitely creepy.  Having seen Star Wars dozens of times, I can say this film has special effects that rival it (and sometimes even surpass it--despite coming out 9 years earlier!).  It was way ahead of its time and didn't do that bad of a job of portraying future technology. 

May 30: It's Such a Beautiful Day - 8/10
Again, another film I watched because I was pressed on time, at only 62 the shortest film of the month.  It's so odd, but good.  A stick figure named Bill has strangely unusual things happen to him.  The film kind of blurs the difference between stick figure and reality to great effect.  The ending for me was the best, though, because it really made me think.  Love movies that do that. 

May 31: Still Alice - 8/10
First off, Julianne Moore definitely deserves her Oscar for this performance.  She was brilliant.  Baldwin and Stewart were very good, too.  But it's pretty depressing and ends abruptly.  Her speech was probably the highlight of the film.  She wasn't suffering, but she was struggling.  This film probably portrays Alzheimer's disease better than any in recent memory. 

And now like last time, I will give out awards based on the films I saw this month!  First are the awards you would see at the Oscars.


First up is Best Picture.  And here are the nominees:
Captain Phillips
Captain America: Civil War
Lincoln
Reservoir Dogs
Kingsman: The Secret Service
Groundhog Day
2001: A Space Odyssey
Still Alice

Every film I rated a 9 or higher is here, with a few that were less (Lincoln, Still Alice) making it thanks to stellar acting performances.  The award goes to....

Reservoir Dogs!  Turns out, none of QT's films have won best picture, so Reservoir Dogs wins despite it not being the highest rated film (Captain Phillips was). 


Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis: Lincoln
Will Smith: Concussion
Bill Murray: Groundhog Day
Jim Carrey: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Tom Hanks: Captain Phillips

Wow, what a great set of actors.  I don't think there's a weak one in the group.  Each actor carried his film.  But the award goes to...

Daniel Day-Lewis!  He won the real life Oscar so he almost wins by default.  Will Smith is a close runner up.

Best Actress:
Evan Rachel Wood: Across the Universe
Sally Field: Lincoln
Kate Winslet: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Julianne Moore: Still Alice
Andie McDowell: Groundhog Day

Good performances, much better female performances than last time.  The award goes to...

Julianne Moore!  Unlike for best actor, this one wasn't that close. 

Best Supporting Actor:
James Spader: Lincoln
Alec Baldwin: Concussion
Samuel L. Jackson: Kingsman: The Secret Service
Barkhad Abdi: Captain Phillips
Steve Buscemi: Reservoir Dogs

Three of these actors were "upstaged" by the lead role actors (Spader, Baldwin, Abdi).  But who will get the award?  It goes to...

Steve Buscemi!  To me, he stole the show, almost.  He wasn't the main character but I almost felt like he was with his command of the scene. 

Best Supporting Actress:
Maggie Gylenhaal: White House Down
Joey King: White House Down
Keira Knightley: Everest
Kirsten Dunst: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Kristen Stewart: Still Alice

Much better female performances in the supporting category than last year, too.   The award goes to...

Keira Knightley!  She didn't even appear in the same country as her co-stars but she was magnificent. 

Best Song:
I Want To Be Like You: Jungle Book (Christopher Walken)
With a Little Help from My Friends: Across the Universe (Ensemble)
Come Together: Across the Universe (Joe Cocker, Ensemble)
Let it Be: Across the Universe (Ensemble)

Yikes, I didn't see many movies with musical numbers, other than Across the Universe.  Anyway, best song goes to...

"Let it Be"!  When I watched this, I teared up.  Watch it here to see why:

Best Direction/Cinematography:
Steven Spielberg: Lincoln
Steven Spielberg: Raiders of the Lost Ark
Paul Greengrass: Captain Phillips
Stanley Kubrick: 2001: A Space Odyssey
Matthew Vaughn: Kingsman: The Secret Service

Spielberg nominated twice, but does he win?  Best Director goes to...

Stanley Kubrick!  Spielberg, despite having a 40% shot, doesn't win.  2001 was just so ahead of its time and innovative.

Best Special Effects:
Ant Man
Captain America Civil War
The Jungle Book
Kingsman: The Secret Service
2001: A Space Odyssey

This is a tough one.  The award for Best Special Effects goes to...

The Jungle Book!  The first real surprise winner!  After reading about how Baloo's hairs and how each FRAME of the film took FIVE HOURS to render the hairs on Baloo's body... just incredible the time and dedication they put in. 

Now for the non-Academy Awards!

Best Action Scene:
Tom Cruise hanging on to an airplane: Mission Impossible Rogue Nation
Colin Firth killing dozens in a church set to "Free Bird": Kingsman: The Secret Service
All of the superheroes fighting: Captain America Civil War
Indy hijacking a truck with the Ark: Raiders of the Lost Ark

All of these had my heart pumping, but the award goes to...

Colin Firth's ass-kicking in Kingsman!  If you're a fan of violence and fighting you have got to see this scene.  INCREDIBLE. 

Funniest Film:
Ant Man
Ted 2
Peep World
Sex Tape
Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure

What was the funniest film to me? It was...

Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure!  Party on Dudes!

Best Death Scene:
Chris Penn, Lawrence Tierney: Reservoir Dogs
Michael Madsen: Reservoir Dogs
Jason Clarke: Everest
Samuel L. Jackson: Kingsman: The Secret Service
James Woods, White House Down

Only one sad death here, but will it win?  Best Death Scene goes to...

Michael Madsen, Reservoir Dogs.  I gotta be honest, I did not see it coming.  Not at all.  Thanks to Tim Roth's character, Madsen was PUT DOWN.  About to burn a cop alive. 

Best Kiss:
David Duchovny and Demi Moore: The Joneses
Matt Damon and Franka Potente: The Bourne Identity
Bill Murray and Andie McDowell: Groundhog Day

Wow, I didn't watch too many films with memorable kisses in them.  Best kiss goes to...

Bill Murray and Andie McDowell in Groundhog Day!  Well, he worked and worked at it but finally was able to get her to fall for him.

Best Couple:
Jude and Lucy in Across the Universe
Joel and Clementine in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Jason and Marie in The Bourne Identity
Phil and Rita in Groundhog Day

Best couple goes to...

Joel and Clementine!  Joel (Jim Carrey) and Clementine (Kate Winslet) realized their mistakes not too late and were fortunately able to salvage something of their almost erased relationship.

Now onto the Razzie style awards.  These dishonor those performances that made me shake my head.

Worst Film:
A Teacher
Beautiful Creatures
Daddy's Home

I didn't see too many bad films this time.  But the one clearly the worst was...

A Teacher.  Next Movie May I'll make this award more of a competition, lol.

Worst Actor:
Will Brittain: A Teacher
Jason Segel: Sex Tape
Mark Wahlberg: Daddy's Home
Mark Wahlberg: Ted 2

Yikes, Marky Mark nominated twice.  Worst actor goes to...

Will Brittain.  At least I cared for Mark's character each time. 

Worst Actress:
Cameron Diaz: Sex Tape
Lindsay Burdge: A Teacher
Amanda Seyfried: Ted 2
Alice Englert: Beautiful Creatures

Can "A Teacher" complete the trifecta?  Worst actress goes to...

Lindsay Burdge!  Yes they can.  I was kind of glad she was miserable at the end.

Worst Special Effects:
White House Down
Beautiful Creatures
Daddy's Home

And now, for worst special effects, and this year they weren't that bad, but the worst of them was...

Daddy's Home.  I know, a comedy. But that one shot of the motorcycle (with Will Ferrell hanging on for dear life) going up the stairs, flying out the house (creating a hole), landing on the car and off... just horrible.  I cringed super hard at that and for that one scene alone that film deserves worst special effects.

Well, that's it for Movie May, 2016!  And a special announcement...

I will be doing Summer Movie Season 2016!  Watching a movie EVERY DAY is tough, sometimes making it hard to make plans with anyone.  So, instead for Summer Movie Season (SMS for short), I will be watching around 2 movies a week.  For 16 weeks starting the week of June 5-11 and ending the week of September 18-24, I will watch 32 movies (perhaps more), averaging two a week.  I realized I still have a lot of DVD's I recently acquired I need to watch (Finishing the Bourne and Indiana Jones series, for one), and since I restarted my Netflix/DVD.com DVD's in mail I'll be getting at least one of those a week.  Also, this summer movie season is packed and I know I'll be hitting the theaters at least 3, 4 times this summer.

There is a week August 21-27 I will be in Southern California for pretty much the whole week on vacation, so I won't watch any that week, but I will make up for it by watching more than 2 films some weeks. 

So, I will check in around September 24, 25, with my reviews of the movies I watched for SMS and of course, my awards!  See you guys then!