Friday, February 23, 2018

2018 MLB and Mariners Predictions!

The 2018 MLB season is fast approaching and Spring Training is underway.  I sometimes wait until right before the MLB (or Mariners) opener to post predictions, but this time I thought I'd get a jump start on it and make my predictions now.  I'm going to predict how each division will go (plus playoffs), and will also predict award winners and go further into detail on how the Seattle Mariners season will go.  Let's just say there will be a few surprises.  I'm going to start with the NL East and move west so that the Mariners and the AL West are last.

* = Wild Card

NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Miami Marlins
Comment: The Nats remain the favorite boasting the best overall roster in the division.  The Mets could make a run but their pitching would have to hold up health-wise, something they haven't really proven to do.  The Phillies should be improved from 2017 as they're a young team on the rise.  The Braves are still a ways a way, and the Marlins are in complete rebuild mode and would surprise no one if they finished with the worst record in MLB.

NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs*
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Cincinnati Reds
Comment: Every so often, the Cardinals surprise everyone and have a great season.  That's what makes them a popular team to root for.  I think that will happen this year.  The Cubs will meanwhile limp into the playoffs as the wild card.  The Brewers will be improved with Cain and Yelich, but it won't be enough to get a playoff spot.  The Pirates traded Andrew McCutcheon and may be heading for a rebuild.  The Reds still are a few pieces away from contending.

NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks*
3. San Francisco Giants
4 .Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Comment: The Dodgers boast the best roster in the NL, if not all of MLB.  The D-Backs will do their best to prove they're not a one-year wonder.  The Giants will be improved, but not the same Giants they used to be.  The Rockies will compete but will be needing pitching help (as usual).  The Padres will be the Padres.

AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Comment: The Red Sox will be knocking the cover off the ball, boasting the best team batting average.  The Blue Jays will compete for a wild card for most of the year but fall short.  The Yankees will have a disappointing season in Aaron Boone's first year as manager, as their expectations become too much.  The Orioles will compete but play in too good of a division.  The Rays will be perhaps the best last placed team in baseball.

AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Comment: The Indians remain the favorites in not a particularly strong division anymore.  The Twins will want to prove last year was not a fluke.  The White Sox should hang around but be missing a few pieces to really go on a run.  The Royals are losing pieces left and right (Cain, Hosmer) and may be headed for a rebuild.  The Tigers proved they're headed for a small rebuild by trading Justin Verlander last season.

AL WEST
1. Houston Astros
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim*
3. Seattle Mariners*
4. Texas Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: The Astros are built for the long haul, and it would be quite the surprise if they didn't compete for the division crown again.  The Angels, after acquiring Shohei Ohtani, will be improved and grab a hold of the Wild Card.  Meanwhile, the Mariners surprise most everyone, and just when people aren't expecting them to do much they go on  a September run and claim the second wild card over the Twins and Blue Jays.  The Rangers have a slightly down season.  The A's continue the churning of their roster but will compete.

So onto the playoffs.  The Wild Card games first.

NL WILD CARD: Cubs at Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks win
The D-Backs win a game they are the underdogs at home in, and relish their first playoff victory in quite some time.

AL WILD CARD: Mariners at Angels: Angels win
In a heated division rival matchup, the Mariners don't muster much offense despite a decent performance from James Paxton.  So the Mariners make the playoffs, but only as a wild card and will still hold the distinction of not HOSTING a playoff game in over 17 years.

Now the divisional round.  Who will have the edge?

NL Divisional Round
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win
Cardinals vs. Nationals: Nationals win

AL Divisional Round
Angels vs. Astros: Astros win
Indians vs. Red Sox: Indians win

Comment: The Dodgers take care of their division rival as do the Astros.  The Nats take care of the Cardinals in a 5 game series.  The Indians/Red Sox series features Terry Francona taking on his former team, and it proves to make a difference as the Indians "upset" the Sox.

NL Championship Series:
Nationals vs. Dodgers: Nationals Win

AL Championship Series:
Indians vs. Astros: Astros Win

Comment: The NL hasn't had a team win the pennant that had won it recently since the Giants, and haven't had a repeat NL Champ since the 08-09 Phillies.  The Dodgers therefore blow it.  Also, with the Nationals making the World Series, the Mariners become the only current franchise to have never won a league pennant.  The Indians/Astros series is a classic, goes to 7 games, and the Astros win Game 7 in walk off fashion thanks to a George Springer double.

World Series: Nationals vs. Astros: Nationals in 7
In a matchup of two teams that have changed names/leagues in the past 20 years (Nationals used to be the Expos, the Astros used to be in the NL), the Nationals come out on top, thanks to a diving catch by Bryce Harper which saves multiple runs from scoring in game 7.  The Nats win their first World Series thanks to World Series MVP Bryce Harper, who hits four homers in the series.

Now, time for some awards:
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, Nationals
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Red Sox
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strausberg, Nationals
AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani, Red Sox
NL Rookie of the Year: Tyler O'Neill, Cardinals (Ouch)
AL Manager of the Year: Scott Servais, Mariners
NL Manager of the Year: Dave Martinez, Nationals

Comment: I usually miss on most or all of these, but it's fun nonetheless.  Mike Trout is always a safe pick for MVP.  His phenom counterpart in the NL, Bryce Harper, is a safe pick for MVP as well.  Chris Sale is another safe pick (I know, I know), and on the Nats, Strausberg, not Scherzer, will be their best pitcher.  Shohei Ohtani has a great rookie campaign and wins ROY.  Tyler O'Neill who last year at this time was in the Mariners farm system, gets called up and becomes a rookie sensation and wins NLROY.  Scott Servais wins Manager of the Year for guiding the Mariners to their first playoffs in 17 years.  Dave Martinez wins the NL award for guiding the Nats to their first World Series championship in club history.


So how will the Mariners get there?  Hard to say.  You can often point at bad luck for being a reason for the Mariners not making the playoffs in a lot of recent seasons, so I'll say this season luck will be on their side.  They will hang around for most of the season, never winning too many or losing too many in a row.  September though, they go on a run and win a lot of close games, with Edwin Diaz at this point being lights out.  I just think that whenever we expect them to do well they disappoint, so this season most fans aren't expecting much, so I'll say they surprise.  Finally, some Mariners awards and stat leaders:

MVP: Robinson Cano
Cy Young: James Paxton
Unsung hero: Dee Gordon
Average: Cano
Homers: Nelson Cruz
Stolen Bases: Gordon
Hits: Cano
Strikeouts: Paxton
Wins: Felix Hernandez
Saves: Edwin Diaz



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