My Thoughts and Grades on the Seahawks 2025 Draft Class and 54-Man Roster Prediction

 The 2025 Draft has concluded, and I think the Seahawks had a very solid draft.  They addressed positions of need, and I think this team will be very competitive this season.  I'm going to go over each draft pick, my brief thoughts, and give a letter grade, and finish with some final thoughts.  I am going to be a bit on the harsher side with my grading, so be forewarned.

Afterwards, I'll predict a rough idea of the 54-man roster.  Likely going to be very wrong in some spots, but I'll do my best.

Round 1 Pick 18: Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
Very solid pick.  It's not particularly exciting nor flashy, but it's what we needed.  We can only hope he adjuts to the NFL and doesn't rack up a ton of penalties.  We need to run the ball more, and Grey will help with that.  I think Grey was projected more as a late first-rounder, so we could've maybe traded down and gotten something from it.
Grade: B-

Round 2 Pick 35: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
My favorite pick of the draft.  He was often mocked as a late first-rounder, so this was a steal.  Smart of John to trade up to snag him here while he was still available.  I can't wait to see the backside defense of Love and Emmanwori.
Grade: A

Round 2 Pick 50: Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami
The first real headscratcher for me.  We already have two very solid tight ends in Fant and Barner.  Perhaps Fant will be a cap casualty in training camp since he is paid over $10 million a season.  I didn't think we particularly needed tight end help, but we'll see.  I've heard decent things, but we already have an emerging stud in Barner.  Perhaps we can have what the Patriots had in the early 2010s with Gronk and Hernandez.  
Grade: C

Round 3 Pick 92: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
It will remain to be seen how good this pick is.  I think it would be foolish of us to think Jalen will match what Russ did in his career, our last QB drafted this high.  Let's hope he can grow and learn from the sidelines and not get pressed into action too early.  I think that's why we got Lock as well.  I'm ok with this pick, but I think the odds are more likely that Jalen doesn't have success with the Hawks than he does.
Grade: C-

Round 5 Pick 142: Rylie Mills, DT, Notre Dame
Don't know too much about him, but I know we always need nose tackle depth.  We'll be hoping Byron Murphy takes a big step in his second year, but Mills is good insurance.  
Grade: C+

Round 5 Pick 166: Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State
One of the two WRs of this draft is going to be a hit and shine in training camp, and I bet it'll be Horton.  WR was definitely a position of need, at least where we needed depth.  
Grade: B

Round 5 Pick 175: Robbie Ouzts, FB/TE, Alabama
Are we going back to old school I formation football?  Perhaps for some plays.  If so, I'm down.  He could also play special teams, so this is a very solid pick.  But the thing is, we already had Brady Russell, who is switching to FB as well.  I think only one can make the roster.
Grade: B-

Round 6 Pick 192: Bryce Cabeldue, G, Kansas
Yes!  More midwestern O-Linemen!  Hey, he might be a steal.  Likely won't outplay Grey, but imagine if they both end up starting.  I will never hate an O-Line pick unless we have too many of them, which will never happen.
Grade: B+

Round 7 Pick 223: Damien Martinez, RB, Miami
This reminds me of another late-round running back, ALSO out of the University of Miami.  That being Travis Homer.  He was a very good special-teams player for a while.  But I think Martinez will be more of a third-string/third-down back.  We'll see.  Can't hate a late running back selection.
Grade: B

Round 7 Pick 234: Mason Richman, OL, Iowa
Our THIRD midwestern offensive lineman!  Love it.  Odds are only one of Cabledue or Richman make the team, unless they maybe push Bradford out (honestly, kinda hope they do).  
Grade: B

Round 7 Pick 238: Ricky White III, WR, UNLV
Like I mentioned with Horton, one of these guys is going to make a splash in training camp, I bet.  It might not be Ricky White, but you never know.  
Grade: B+

Overall Grade/GPA: 2.81 (B- average)

Overall, very solid draft for John Schneider and company.  I didn't hate a single pick.  In all likelihood, maybe 7 or so (out of 11) of them make the team this season, with perhaps 3 or 4 playing multiple significant seasons with the team.  But it's how significant those seasons end up being that will determine how successful this draft truly is.  

Just for funsies, I'll also predict the 54-man roster and possible practice squad:

QB (3): Darnold, Lock, Milroe
RB/FB (6): Walker, Charbonnet, Martinez, McIntosh, Holani, Ouzts
TE (3): Barner, Arroyo, Saubert
WR (5): Kupp, Smith-Njigba, Valdez-Scantling, Horton, Bobo
OL (10): Oluwatimi, Sundell, Cabledue, Richman, Haynes, Laumea, Zabel, Cross, Lucas, Jerrell
26

DL (7): Lawrence, Mills, Williams, Murphy, Reed, Morris, Pili
LB/Edge (7): Hall, Jones, Knight, Mafe, Nwosu, Smith, Sheriff
CB (5): Witherspoon, Woolen, Pritchett, Jobe, Jean-Charles
S (5): Bryant, Love, Emmanwori, Reed, Finley/Bell
24

ST (3): Myers, Dickson, Stoll

Notable cuts: Noah Fant, Dareke Young, Anthony Bradford

Practice Squad candidates: 
Ricky White, WR
Cody White, WR
Hall, CB
Bohanna, DT
Aumavae-Laulu, G
O'Connell, LB
Thomas, LB

I'm probably way off with the numbers regarding positions, but it should be fun for me to see how close I get!  Training camp is still three months away... sigh.  But it should be hear before we know it! :D

My Survivor 50 Cast (Mostly New Era)

 Survivor 50 is scheduled to air around this time next year.  Crazy.  With that said, I thought I'd put together a cast that I would use for Survivor 50.  I'll take into account who production seems to like, and who doesn't want to play again (won't cast them).  Here are some ground rules I put together for myself:

• No more than 2 returning players for one season
• Only using casts from seasons 35-48.  34 was a returning players season, 33 and earlier have at least had a chance to return so far.  48 has not aired yet, but more on that later.
• Trying to cast 1 or more from each of the above seasons.  However, one season, 39, did not make the cut.  I think Survivor at this point is okay with not casting from EVERY season, especially considering what 39 is known for.
• Follow the diversity mandate, meaning half the cast has to be people of color (non-white).  
• No winners allowed.  I considered this a "Second Chance" type cast.  

With that said, I'm going to list the players, why I chose them, and who was close to making it but ultimately didn't.  And then at the end, I'll put together the tribes so that there aren't any players from the same original season on the same tribe.

Survivor 35 (Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers): Chrissy Hofbeck
Only Chrissy makes the cast from here.  She's still talked about with how well she did at challenges, and Survivor owes it to her to give her another chance after how they screwed her over with the surprise fire-making twist that allowed Ben to have another chance.  There wasn't really anyone else here I considered.  I'd like to see Devon Pinto again, but he said he'd only play again with his mom on a "Blood vs. Water" type season.  Ryan Ulrich loses out to a nerd from two seasons later.

Survivor 36 (Ghost Island): Dominic Abbate
Dominic is the only player to lose on a tie-breaking final vote.  How can he not be brought back?  The only other player I somewhat considered was Michael Yerger, who I liked but likely has been forgotten about at this point.  He could be a dark-horse candidate, but the problem is, there's already a ton of white males to choose from.

Survivor 37 (David vs. Goliath): Christian Hubicki and Angelina Keeley
Christian remains one of the game's biggest fan favorites.  Imagine him dissecting strategy with some other All-Stars.  Angelina comes back solely for the memes but also because Jeff loves her.  Let's hope for another Natalie/coat situation or another rice negotiation from Angelina.  I considered Gabby Pascuzzi and John Hennigan, but Christian and Angelina beat them out.

Survivor 38 (Edge of Extinction): Rick Devens
How could he not be brought back?  He was so close to a win, he's great TV, and he's clearly liked by production as he was a co-host of the On Fire podcast.  I also considered Victoria Baamonde, who was a last-minute cut because I needed to abide by the diversity mandate.

Survivor 39 (Island of the Idols): No one
As mentioned above, no one made it from this cast.  Like I said, I think production would be okay to completely ignore this season.  I considered Elaine, who was closest.  I really like Janet, but she was involved with the Dan Spilo incident, albeit not in a bad way, but I know production wants to steer very clear of it.  She's also a bit on the older side.

Survivor 41: Shantel "Shan" Smith
She has her own theme song.  I can see production incorporating that into their promos for 50.  How could they not?  She's made some comments that I don't think production really liked, but she's still talked about in Survivor circles.  I considered Ricard, but there are too many males that I'd want to see more than him.

Survivor 42: Omar Zaheer
I could be wrong, but I think they're more likely to cast strategic and social masterminds rather than physical players, which is why I chose Omar over his Taku tribemate, Jonathan.  I'd love to see Jonathan beast challenges again, but we know he's got zero shot to actually win the game against all-star strategists.  I also considered Mike and Lindsay, who fell short as well.

Survivor 43: Jesse Lopez and Karla Cruz Godoy
I so badly wanted both Jesse AND Cody, but I couldn't fit Cody.  Maybe production can.  But at least I have Jesse, who is my personal favorite strategist of the New Era.  I also included Karla, who I think could learn and improve upon her first game, which started very strong but fizzled out toward the end.  Both also fulfill the diversity mandate.  

Survivor 44: Carolyn Wiger and Lauren Harpe
This is the only time I cast two of the same gender from the same season.  Carolyn is an obvious choice.  Production might not like her ties to Carson or her appearance on The Traitors (on a rival network), but she is on the New Era Mount Rushmore of characters.  And Lauren might seem like a weird pick, which it maybe is, but she was a dark horse on her season who other players said would likely win if she gets to the end (at least against anyone except Yam-Yam).  I also considered Carson, but production doesn't love him anymore.  Plus, I don't need more white males.

Survivor 45: Kaleb Gebrewold and Kellie Nalbandian
Weird how my two picks from this season were the first two jury members.  Kaleb was a fan favorite, had a legendary shot in the dark play, and likely fares better when there are other threats he's playing with.  Kellie might also seem like an odd pick, but she had a pretty legendary blindside, and the Survivor community and production seem to love her.  She's got a good mind for the game, which is what led to her ouster.  She could definitely showcase her strategic chops on a second try.

Survivor 46: Q Burdette
I wanted to include a second, but there was no room.  Q had to make it, being the legendary character he is.  It'd be a big mistake not to bring him back.  I considered Charlie, but as I've said, there were too many white males ahead of him.  I also considered Venus, Hunter, and Tiffany.

Survivor 47: Andy Rueda and Genevieve Mushaluk
I'm pretty sure Jeff hinted to already asking Andy to come back for 50.  So he has to make it.  Gen, meanwhile, was such a great female powerhouse and I think could shine on an all-star cast.   Sure, she didn't get the greatest edit in the world early on, but a lot of great female players didn't.  

Survivor 48: One male, one female
In order to make my complete cast, one man and one woman from this season makes it onto 50.  I'm not sure who.  I'm not going to even fathom a guess at this point.  But in order to abide by the diversity mandate, one has to be a person of color.  I'll update here once 48 is at least close to over.  If I don't like two people enough to be on 50, I'll go back and add someone from a prior season.  

My actual picks from 48: David Kinne and Kamilla Karthigesu
So my picks from this season are David and Kamilla.  I know the rumors are Joe and Sai, but I think I'd rather see David and Kamilla.  David would certainly learn from his first game, and it'd be fun to watch him dominate challenges again.  And Kamilla played a great game but just fell short due to losing at fire-making.

Survivor 49: No one
49 will air in the fall of 2025, and I feel like that's not enough time for production to gauge the reaction of the cast there.  Plus, they probably want to avoid back-to-back seasons, although they've done that several times before when the seasons were 39 days.  But the cast of 50 is very likely going to be announced before we see 49 (or at least, finish 49).  So the players from 49 will have to hope for a returning players season after 50 that they can get a second chance on.

So that makes 18 players.  I know a lot of people think they might up the amount of players to 20 for Season 50, but they seem so infatuated with the three tribe format.  I don't see it changing, even for 50.  Here is my 18-player, 3-tribe cast, keeping duplicates from the same season on different tribes and trying to balance them out for challenge strength:

RED TRIBE
Dominic Abbate, 36
Jesse Lopez, 43
David Kinne, 48
Angelina Keely, 37
Shan Smith, 41
Kellie Nalbandian, 45

BLUE TRIBE
Rick Devens, 38
Omar Zaheer, 42
Kaleb Gebrewold, 45
Karla Cruz Godoy, 43
Carolyn Wiger, 44
Genevieve Mushaluk, 47

GREEN TRIBE
Christian Hubicki, 37
Q Burdette, 46
Andy Rueda, 47
Chrissy Hofbeck, 35
Lauren Harpe, 44
Kamilla Karthigesu, 48

Oh man, what a cast!  I'll be interested to see how this compares to the actual cast of 50.  And again, once 48 is over or close to over, I will put in my two picks from that season here.  

I made a Brant Steele simulation of this season.  Here it is to simulate. https://brantsteele.com/survivor/32/r.php?c=G53zz0Xh

My Preferred 2023 Seahawks Draft (And review of the actual draft)

I did this last year, and I correctly had us selecting Tariq Woolen.  I did not, however, realize he would turn into a star in his first year.  Well anyway, I thought I'd do a mock Seahawks draft again.  I'm using a combination of two things: Walterfootball.com and a document a Seahawks fan put together, measuring draft prospects against guys we typically take.  I'm also going to do this assuming no trades.  It's silly, as the Hawks very likely will trade down at some point, but to guess where and how far would just be a crapshoot.

In BOLD, I say where the player listed ended up getting drafted.  Some of these I was quite far off on.  Oops.

Round 1, Pick 5: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
I think the Cardinals take Will Anderson to help their pass rush (or someone trades up to get him).  I also think Jalen Carter falls a bit in this draft, and I actually believe we pass on him.  Tyree Wilson is a bit of a reach at 5, but that's nothing new to the Hawks.  Charles Cross was a slight reach at 9 as well last year.  Let's just hope whoever we take here does better than the last defensive player we took at least this high, Aaron Curry in 2009.

Tyree ended up going #7 to the Raiders.  We ended up taking Devon Witherspoon.  It'll be interesting to see who has the better career.  I'll say this: Witherspoon is going to the better organization than Wilson.

Round 1, Pick 20: Siaki Ika, NT, Baylor
The Seahawks pass on Jalen Carter, hoping he maybe falls to 20, but he does not.  So instead, they take Siaki Ika from Baylor.  He's heavier than the DT's they usually draft, but he's about the same size as other DT's the Hawks have had over the years, like Bryan Mone and Al Woods.  The Hawks definitely need a nose tackle to replace Al Woods, who was cut, so they likely spend one of their earlier picks on one.  

Oh boy.  I was off.  Siaki ended up going pick 98 in round 3 to the Browns.  I saw he could've been first round talent, and we know the Hawks have reached in the past.  The Hawks ended up taking Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who I'll definitely look forward to all the misspellings of his names by Seahawks fans on Reddit, Facebook, etc.  I prefer the Hawk's actual pick (actually), and I think JSN will have a better career than Ika.

Round 2, Pick 37: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
Yes, even with the signing of Evan Brown, the Seahawks could use another center. And I expect them to take one with one of their 2nd round picks, if not their 20th overall pick.  Better to not wait, so I have them spending the first of their two second-round picks on the highest-graded center, John Michael Schmitz from Minnesota.  Carroll and Schneider still long for the days of Max Unger, so they know they need a good stalwart at center.  They badly missed out on Creed Humphrey, selecting D'Wayne Eskridge instead (Ouch).  They won't make the same mistake (I hope).

The Hawks instead took Derick Hall, defensive end.  I wish we had taken JMS, who ended up going to the Giants at pick 57.  If he becomes an all-pro like Creed Humphrey, I might lose it.  I'm not particularly excited about Hall, seeing as we've yet to really develop an edge rusher... ever.  Ok, Frank Clark is one, but there's an exception to every rule.

Round 2, Pick 52: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State
This is where I could see the Hawks trading down, especially if they've addressed their immediate needs (DL, interior OL/C).  I know Carroll loves his speedy linebackers, and why not take a local kid in Daiyan Henley from WSU?  I know we signed Devin Bush and Bobby Wagner, but I guarantee Bush will have competition.  We'll need depth there, anyway, with Bush's injury history and with Brooks missing the start of the season.

The Hawks instead took Zach Charbonnet, running back.  I wish we had grabbed the local kid in Henley.  The Hawks in fact did not take any pure linebacker in the draft (if you don't count Hall or Morris as one).  Henley went #85 to the Chargers.  So we could've had him, just like Schmitz.

Round 3, Pick 83: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss
Hmmmm... drafting a bigger wide receiver from Ole Miss on Day 2?  Well, it worked out for the Seahawks once before with DK Metcalf, so why not try again?  I'm sure DK would love to work with Mingo and mentor him.  The Hawks have been looking for a legit #3 for years, and I think they'll try to find it in the draft.

We did draft a receiver (JSN), but all the way up at #20.  The Hawks traded down to 108 and took Anthony Bradford, guard.  Mingo went #39 to the Panthers, so we wouldn't have had a shot to get him, at least not here.

Round 4, Pick 123: J.L. Skinner, S, Boise State
Maybe PC/JS are trying to rebuild the Legion of Boom.  They already have their Richard Sherman clone in Woolen.  What about a Kam Chancellor clone?  Granted, Skinner is a bit on the skinny side, but he could bulk up, I bet.  I just bet Carroll would love his 6'4" frame.  We do have Adams and Love, but Adams is injury prone.  And Love is a newcomer, so it's yet to be seen how he'll fit in.  If they are able to get Skinner to bulk up enough, he could move to linebacker.

Instead the Hawks drafted Cameron Young, defensive tackle.  I felt like they should've taken one sooner, but what do I know?  Skinner went all the way at 183 to the Broncos.  So I was off again.

Round 5, Pick 151: Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas
Roschon's vertical isn't particularly ideal, but I think PC/JS might take a running back mid-late in the draft who is larger and can withstand some hits.  Roschon is 6'0" 219 lbs, so he'd be a nice contrast to the smaller Kenneth Walker.  

Roschon went at 115 to the Bears, so earlier than I thought.   Instead of us drafting a mid-round RB, we drafted an early one (#52, Charbonnet) and a late one (#237, McIntosh).  Here we drafted Mike Morris, defensive end.

Round 5, Pick 154: Yaya Diaby, Edge, Louisville
You think PC/JS would be happy with just Tyree Wilson?  Maybe... but I could also see them taking someone else as a project, such as Yaya Diaby.  One, I like his name.  And two, he seems to have all the measurables.  He also just seems like a PC/JS kind of guy based on his name and personality.

Unfortunately, we didn't get Diaby, who I would've love saying the name of.   He went #82 to the Buccaneers, so I was way off.  Instead, we drafted Olusegun Oluwatimi, whose name I'm going to have to learn how to spell correctly without looking up... someday.  I'm totally fine with that change.  Rumor is that the Hawks were thinking about taking Diaby at #83, but the Bucs sniped him away from us, so the Hawks traded down.  

Round 6, Pick 198: Tre Tucker, WR, Cincinnati
The Hawks may draft two receivers (almost a guarantee to draft at least one), and I could see Tre Tucker coming to us.  He's got decent speed, so he could compete with Dee Eskridge for a spot on the roster.  The Hawks could use an underneath speedy guy to emerge.

We did not draft a second WR, but we did draft a safety like I thought.  Just a bit later than I thought.  Tucker ended up going #100 to the Raiders, so again I was way off.  The Hawks went with Jerrick Reed, safety, instead.  I'm okay with that.

Round 7, Pick 237: Cameron Mitchell, CB, Northwestern
The Hawks may take a corner to see if they can one day be our nickel. Mitchell has the speed and measurables that line up.  This could be any position here, but I decided to go with something the Hawks hadn't taken yet.

Funny how the Browns and Raiders took a combined four players that I liked.  Mitchell went at 142 to the Browns, so again just so far off.  We took Kenny McIntosh, who I love and I think has a good chance of making the roster.

I didn't get any players that the Hawks ended up taking (damn).  But I'll say this: I think I prefer the Seahawks draft over the one I had them take.  It's close.  I would've loved John Michael Schmitz, but if Oluwatimi ends up being as good (or better) than JMS, this draft was an absolute win.

Well, there you have it!  I'd be stoked with this draft.  Here's what a 53-man roster would look like with this draft:

QB (2) - Geno Smith, Drew Lock
RB (5) - Kenneth Walker III, Deejay Dallas, Roschon Johnson, FA (Undrafted?), Nick Bellore
WR (6) - Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Jonathan Mingo, Dareke Young, 2 of the 3 of D'Wayne Eskridge/Cade Johnson/Tre Tucker
TE (3) - Noah Fant, Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson
OL (9) - Charles Cross, Abraham Lucas, Jake Curhan, Stone Forsythe, Phil Haynes, Damien Lewis, Evan Brown, John Michael Schmitz, Joey Hunt
DL (5) - Dre'Mont Jones, Bryan Mone, Siaki Ika, Jarran Reed, Myles Adams
Edge (4) - Tyree Wilson, Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor/Yaya Diaby
LB (6) - Bobby Wagner, Devin Bush, Daiyan Henley, Alton Robinson, Tyreke Smith, Vi Jones
CB (5) - Tariq Woolen, Mike Jackson, Coby Bryant, Tre Brown, Cameron Mitchell/Artie Burns
S (5) - Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Julian Love, J.L. Skinner, Joey Blount
ST (3): Jason Myers (K), Michael Dickson (P), Ott/Tinker (LS)

And unlike last year, I'm going to give a quick comment on each position and how they shape up.

QB: Two QB's under contract.  Might bring in someone for pre-season, but they likely get cut.
RB: Hawks almost guaranteed to draft one, they'll need someone to replace Penny/Homer.  Might have a surprise UFA make the team here.
WR: A draft pick, possibly two make the team.  

TE: Same three as last year.
OL: Starting five would be Cross, Lewis, Schmitz, Haynes, and Lucas.  
DL: Ika and Mone are the more traditional nose tackles/run stuffers.  The rest are used in pass situations.
Edge: Three of four likely are first or second round picks (this year or in year's past), plus a big FA last year in Nwosu.
LB: Brooks will be on the shelf early on, so I expect the starting 'backers to be a combo of Bush, Wagner, and a draft pick (Henley?).
CB: Honestly, they'll probably draft a CB higher than what I said, but it is what it is.
S: With Neal seemingly on his way out, we will need a safety, especially if we adopt 3 safety sets like it is rumored.
ST: Same as last year.

So, there you have it!  It'll be interesting to see if we end up taking any of the guys above.  I'll come back after the draft and mention who we took instead and who ended up taking the guy I wanted.

2023 Outlook for Seattle Mariners Players

 The 2023 MLB season starts this Thursday, and while I've already made my predictions for the season, I have yet to talk in-depth about my favorite team, the Seattle Mariners.  I'm going to go through each of the players expected to make the Opening Day Roster and say what I expect from them.  I'm later going to use these expectations and give them grades at the All-Star break and at the end of the season.  

PITCHERS
Matt Brash: 
I expect Brash to have an improved 2023, becoming one of our more dominant relievers.  I'd love to see him either be THE guy we use to face tough bats, or be a guy we can stretch out to 2 innings if need be.

Luis Castillo:
Luis will be in his first full season as a Mariner, and he'll be our #1.  I expect Luis to keep us in a lot of low-scoring ball games (think that extra innings game against the Yankees last year).  I would love to see an All-Star nod for him, but not making it wouldn't be the biggest disappointment, either.

Diego Castillo: 
All I want is control from Diego from start to finish.  Now he's going to get wild at times, but his games where he loses control need to be few and far between.  And we cannot afford him to go on streaks (like he did at the start of last year) where his ERA is in the double digits.

Matt Festa:
Festa's a good, all-around reliever and I hope he stays that way.  He's like Brash but without as nasty of stuff.  I'd love to see him close a game or two.  

Chris Flexen: 
It looks like Flexen will start the year in the pen, but will fill in as a starter when necessary (double-headers, injuries, etc.). This will be HUGE.  As long as Flex doesn't let when or how he's pitching affect him, I'd look for him to be one of our more important pitchers this season.  He could also be a very valuable trade piece at the deadline.

Logan Gilbert:
Logan started out red-hot last April.  I was thinking Cy Young.  But alas, he cooled off.  I'm not expecting Logan to be THAT good, but to be near it and to be near it for longer would be ideal.  Imagine if Logan shows some overall signs of improvement, and is only the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on our team?  Wow...

Marco Gonzales: 
Because of the acquisition of pitching and promoting through the minors, Marco has gone from our #1 to our #5 in just three seasons.  Crazy.  And he's handled it like the ultimate professional.  I expect Marco to be one of the league's best #5 starters, consistently putting out quality (or near quality) starts of 6IP, 3 runs or less.  

Trevor Gott: 
I'm not expecting a ton from Gott, a newcomer.  I just don't want him to suck.  Be on par with Festa and Castillo, and I'll be happy.

George Kirby:
Kirby arrived after Gilbert, but his ceiling is higher.  I expect George to improve on 2022 and be our second best pitcher (if not best) in his first FULL season (he started in May last season).  I wouldn't be surprised to see an All-Star nod for George, which would be reason to give him an A at the break.  

Andres Munoz: 
It'll be interesting to see how Servais handles Munoz this season.  Hopefully he doesn't put too much on him, like he seemed to do in the playoffs.  If Munoz's stuff can be just as lethal as last season, I'll be happy.

Penn Murfee:
Unfortunately Penn had the distinction of being the pitcher that allowed the Astros go-ahead home run in the 18th inning of game 3 of the ALDS.  I don't think too many fans hold a grudge against him.  I hope he can shake that and that it doesn't affect how he pitches in 2023.

Robbie Ray:
Robbie has been working on a new pitch, I believe.  We need him to have a better 2023 than he did 2022.  He doesn't need to be a Cy Young candidate, just someone good enough to be in our Top 3 starters (which he wasn't last year).  

Paul Sewald: 
Sewald was our defacto closer last season, and he wasn't perfect, but he was solid.  I hope some of the burden is taken off of his shoulders and he's given some lower-impact innings.


CATCHERS
Tom Murphy: 
The Murph is back!  He was our starter, but now he'll be backing up The Big Dumper.  I expect Murph to put up solid numbers and start at least 40-60 games, hopefully.  

Cal Raleigh:
The Big Dumper had such a great 2022 season, the highlight of course being his playoff-clinching walk-off home run.  If he can improve his average slightly and still hit dingers, I'll be happy.

INFIELDERS
J.P. Crawford:
J.P. has had up-and-down seasons the last few years.  I hope his average can climb (with the ban of the shift) and he can hit well from the bottom of the lineup.  I hope he hits well enough for Servais to consider moving him up to 1 or 2, but I won't hold my breath.  I also want his defense to improve well enough to earn him a Gold Glove nomination.

Ty France:
Let's have a season where Ty plays fully healthy, ok?  The bigger bases will help with avoiding collisions.  I do expect Ty to have a great year if he can stay healthy.  A repeat All-Star appearance would be great, but the Mariners haven't had many of those in recent memory.  

Eugenio Suarez:
Suarez had as great of season as we could've hoped in 2022.  I hope him playing in the WBC doesn't mean he tires out at the end of the year.  If he can continue to be a force in the middle of our lineup, I'll be happy.

Kolten Wong: 
Wong is more of a defensive player than an offensive powerhouse, so I won't be counting on his bat too much.  But I would love to see his average jump a bit from last season.  I'm also looking forward to all the sweet double plays he and J.P. will turn.  

OUTFIELDERS
Sam Haggerty: 
"Swaggerty" was a vital tool for Servais last season, and I hope he continues to be.  We will likely see him take over for Hernandez in the outfield late in games (like he did for Winker last year).  I also hope to see him play some more second base, a position he is capable of handling.

Teoscar Hernandez:
Teoscar will hopefully be a force in the middle of our lineup, much like Suarez last season.  I'm looking forward to seeing him playing alongside his DR countryman in Julio.  Hopefully his defense won't be a liability and we'll see some clutch knocks from him.

Jarred Kelenic: 
Listen, JK seems to be as ready as ever.  He had a FANTASTIC spring.  He seems focused and locked in.  We know he has speed, defense, and a cannon arm.  If he can hit above .200 (.220+?) and hit dingers, (on pace for 20-30), he will be a consistent starter.  There's nothing more Mariner fans want than to see JK succeed in a big way.  

AJ Pollock: 
AJ will likely start against lefties in left field, giving Kelenic a breather every now and then.  He also might get a start at DH if no one else needs it.  I hope he can provide a veteran bat, hit somewhat decently, and give Servais a reason to keep him in the lineup.

Julio Rodriguez: 
Man, what a year he had last season.  Can we expect bigger things in 2023?  Why not?  Julio is the face of this team, and we are counting on him to be an even bigger force in 2023.  Provided he plays decently, a repeat 2023 All-Star appearance is a given, considering he is now a household name.  

Well, there you have it.  I know I didn't get too much into numbers, but I didn't want to just to get disappointed.  I know I also didn't predict them to make the playoffs, but if most of these guys can meet my reasonable expectations for them, I see no reason why they cannot prove me wrong.  I'm stoked and I'm looking forward to a great 2023 season.  GO MARINERS!!!!

My 2023 MLB Predictions

 It's about that time of year!  The MLB season officially gets underway later this month, so I got to get my predictions out.  

Like last year, I'm going to predict the order of each division (no win or loss totals), the wild card teams, and I'll run through the playoffs.  Last year, I correctly picked the Mariners to end their playoff drought, and I even got their playoff seeding right (#5)!  I'll also pick the team leaders for statistical categories and All-Stars.  Let's hope I do better in that department this year.  Just a refresher: I had Frazier leading in average, JP leading in stolen bases, Ray leading in ERA, and Winker, Haniger, and Ray as All-Stars.  Oops!  Without further ado, the 2023 MLB predicted standings:

NL EAST
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies*
3. New York Mets*
4. Miami Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
Comment: In the highly competitive NL East (at least with the first three teams), I have the Braves winning the division.  They lost Dansby Swanson but still have a great core with Riley, Acuna, and Harris.  The Phillies will be a strong wild-card team after acquiring Trea Turner.  The Mets did get Verlander, but he shows his age, and the Mets take a small step back.  

NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Comment: This is likely the worst division in baseball.  The Brewers and Cardinals will fight for the division, but the Cards have too much firepower with Goldschmidt and Arenado.  The retirements of Pujols and Yadi will open up spots for younger players to emerge.  The Cubs will be slightly better, and could possibly challenge for a wild card spot. 

NL WEST
1. San Diego Padres
2. Los Angeles Dodgers*
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Comment: My biggest surprise pick (standing-wise) is the Padres winning the NL West over the Dodgers.  The Dodgers will hold the division for most of the season, but a combination of a late Padres run and a Dodgers late collapse results in the Padres winning the division.  The Dodgers will still get a wild card.  The Giants will be decent again, but like the Cubs may still be a year away.

AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays*
3. Baltimore Orioles*
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Boston Red Sox
Comment: The Yankees win the division... again.  The Blue Jays again claim the top wild-card seed.  The Orioles leapfrog the Rays and claim the final wild-card spot.  The Orioles have a young core that will only get better.  The Red Sox lost Bogearts and well... they need to rebuild.

AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Guardians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Comment: The Guardians have a solid young core and aren't going anywhere.  The Twins should compete and will challenge for a wild card spot, but it won't be enough.  The White Sox will feel the loss of Jose Abreu.  

AL WEST
1. Houston Astros
2. Texas Rangers*
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: I hate to say it, but the Mariners are missing the playoffs.  I hope I'm wrong.  I think the Rangers signing DeGrom and getting Bruce Bochy as manager were huge.  I don't think the Mariners did enough this offseason, and it will come back to bite them.  Of course, the Astros aren't going anywhere, unfortunately.

So, the 2023 playoffs!  Perhaps a few surprise teams?  No Mariners... let's hope if they miss the playoffs (like I'm predicting) that it doesn't start a new drought for the team.

NL WILD CARD
(6) Mets at (3) Cardinals: Cardinals win
(5) Phillies at (4) Dodgers: Phillies win

AL WILD CARD 
(6) Orioles at (3) Guardians: Guardians win
(5) Rangers at (4) Blue Jays: Blue Jays win

NL DIVISIONAL ROUND
(5) Phillies at (1) Braves: Braves win
(3) Cardinals at (2) Padres: Padres win

AL DIVISIONAL ROUND
(4) Blue Jays at (1) Astros: Astros win
(3) Guardians at (2) Yankees: Guardians win

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Padres vs. Braves: Braves win
Guardians vs. Astros: Guardians win

WORLD SERIES
Guardians vs. Braves: Braves win in 7

Yep, a rematch of the 1995 World Series, 28 years later.  The Braves win again.  Now, who I think will lead certain categories for the M's:

Average: JP Crawford (resurgent season)
Home Runs: Julio Rodriguez
RBI: Ty France
Stolen Bases: Julio Rodriguez
Wins: Luis Castillo
Strikeouts: Robbie Ray
ERA: George Kirby
Saves: Paul Sewald
All-Stars: Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby

I'm going to do a further look at the M's, what I expect from each player, and perhaps go in depth as to why I think they'll miss the playoffs (barely).  Look for that soon!

So this is Brian from late 2023, the MLB season is now in the playoffs and I wanted to point out the biggest things I got right and the biggest things I got wrong:

Biggest things I got right:
- Mariners missing the playoffs.  I wish I wasn't right on this...!  Sigh.
- The Texas Rangers finishing 2nd to the Astros and snagging a wild card, along with two other AL East teams.  
- The Baltimore Orioles making the playoffs--although I did not see them winning the East!
- The Dodgers losing their first playoff series--again.  Although, I had them losing the wild card instead of losing in the divisional round.

Biggest things I got wrong: 
- Guardians winning their division and the AL Pennant--Whoops!
- Cardinals winning the NL Central--but I wasn't the only one to get this wrong
- The Padres winning the NL West over the Dodgers.  Hey, they lost a lot of close games, if you switch those, you basically get what I predicted.
- The Yankees winning the AL East while the Rays finish 4th.  Basically switch those two. 

Survivor 44 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 44 is just around the corner, and just like I did for Survivor 43, I'm going to go through each of the cast and predict where I think they'll land.  As before, I'll give a range of each player on where I expect them to finish.  Hopefully, I do better than the 33% (6/18) I did last season.  And yet again, I'll make a winner pick.  You'll have to wait and see at the end.  And now, here are the players, alphabetically by first name:

Brandon Cottom, 30, Security Specialist from Newtown, PA
Comparables: Danny McCray, Ryan Medrano
I do actually remember Brandon playing for the Seahawks, my favorite team.  Unfortunately, it was only in the preseason, as he never made a final 53-man roster.  I think he'll have a game similar to Danny and/or Ryan, where he gets fairly far, but not the end.  He'll be my favorite and the one I'm rooting for most, so I hope he wins.  But I just can't see it.
Predicted Finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 10th.  Damnit!  Couldn't you have survived one more vote, Brandon?

Bruce Perrault, 46, Insurance Agent from Warwick, RI
Comparables: Eric Abraham, Rocksroy Bailey
I genuinely feel like the best Bruce can do in this game is about Rocksroy's spot, getting eliminated shortly after the merge.  But I think it's more likely he's an early boot, like Eric Abraham.  Also, *SPOILER ALERT*, there's a strong likelihood that Bruce is the one down shown in the preview for 44, and this likely is the first challenge.  Bruce could be a medevac here, and yes, that did factor into my placement for him.
Predicted Finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 18th.  Although I did know that was him being attended to at the challenge, I did not know for sure if he was medically evacuated from the game or not.

Carolyn Wiger, 35, Drug Abuse Counselor from Hugo, MN
Comparables: Lindsay Carmine, Heather Aldret
Carolyn is one of those women who will either be an early boot or get very far.  There's no in-between.  And it's so hard to tell.  Two things: She compared herself to Noura (yikes, but maybe it's good to be that self-aware?), and also she was featured in the promo at the 43 Finale.  So I think she's likely a losing finalist or loses at fire-making like Heather.
Predicted Finish: 7th-2nd
CORRECT, 3rd.  She was indeed a losing finalist!

Carson Garrett, 20, Aerospace Engineering Student from Atlanta, GA
Comparabes: Zach Wurtenberger, Christian Hubicki
Can Carson avoid being an early boot?  On pure appearances alone, I don't think so.  He's going to have a tall task trying to convince his tribe he's older than he is (or more mature than his age).  I think he's got a good head on his shoulders, but I cannot see him getting far.  He's like a younger Christian, which isn't necessarily a good thing.  Also, the next youngest on his starting tribe is 27, so it's going to be tough for him to form bonds.
Predicted Finish: 16th-11th
WRONG.  Carson has already gotten better than 11th.

Claire Rafson, 25, Tech Investor from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Chanelle Howell, Liana Wallace
I see Claire as more of a UTR Liana or a Chanelle that fits in better.  Well, she's got to try to do one of those two things to get far.  I could see it.  Can she accrue just enough agency to get votes at the end and win?  Time will tell.  I think she'll get targeted for being a jury threat in the mid-merge.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 15th.  Claire was robbed!  

Danny Massa, 32, Firefighter from Bronx, NY
Comparables: David Voce, Jonathan Young
Danny is a gym rat who will definitely help his tribe in challenges early on.  But like Voce and Jonathan, I don't see him having too much game acumen.  Like Jonathan, he may slip by just because the others will know he won't win a jury vote or because others might use him as a meat shield.  I can't see him being an early boot due to his kindness and strength.
Predicted Finish: 11th-6th
CORRECT, 7th.  He was more of a strategist and social player than I thought, but he did slip by because people had other targets.

Frannie Marin, 23, Research Coordinator from Cambridge, MA
Comparables: Kellyn Bechtold, Evvie Jagoda
Frannie, the youngest female, may have a story to tell if she gets to the final 3.  It's hard to see her getting there, but it is a possibility.  She's one of several that I feel could literally be anywhere from first boot to a finalist.  But as the youngest female, it's hard to see her winning.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
CORRECT, 8th.  I knew she'd be somewhere in the middle.  Too good socially (and surprisingly good at challenges) to vote out early.

Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt, 42, Engineering Manager from Pittsburgh, PA
Comparables: Marya Sherron, Tiffany Seely
Heidi is another woman in her 40s cast to fulfill an archetype.  Tiffany in 41 has done the best of this archetype so far in the new era, which isn't saying much.  So it's fairly safe to say Heidi could be a pre-merge boot.  Hey, some people have to be.
Predicted Finish: 17th-12th
WRONG.  Heidi has already gotten better than 12th.

Helen Li, 29, Product Manager from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Jeanine Zheng, Erika Casupanan
Unfortunately, Asian women in recent seasons have been targeted for being smart.  Helen will somehow have to lower her threat level at some point.  I could see her being a major player if she survives the pre-merge, which I'm going to guess she will.  But since people on this season have seen Season 41, she'll likely become a target since people may see her as the next Erika.
Predicted Finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 16th.  Helen was robbed!

Jaime Lynn Ruiz, 35, Yogi from Mesa, AZ
Comparables: Elie Scott, Noura Salman
My gut feeling is that Jaime will have a tough time finding her footing in this game and will not be included in the majority alliance/vote.  She has a chance to perhaps make big moves and get far, but I don't see it happening.  Her dual profession of yogi/Tiktoker makes me think she's going to possibly annoy people out there.  She seems like the kind of player others won't feel guilty about betraying.
Predicted Finish: 16th-11th
WRONG.  Jaime Lynn has already gotten better than 11th.

Dr. Joshua Wilder, 34, Podiatrist from Atlanta, GA
Comparables: Dr. Peter Baggenstos, Wendell Holland
I'd recommend Dr. Wilder keep his occupation a secret, as people will think he's too smart, rich, or both.  I think he'll do a good job ingratiating himself, but I see a blindside/downfall episode for him in the post-merge.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 12th.  Not off by too much.  He did try to keep his occupation a secret, though.

Kane Fritzler, 25, Law Student from Saskatoon, SK
Comparables: Daniel Strunk
I only included one comparable because if this guy wasn't cast to be Strunk 2.0, then I'm an alien from outer space.  Both are pale, semi-nerdy-looking lawyers with patchy facial hair and light brown hair.  Hopefully for Kane, he will do better than Daniel, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.  The best case is he makes the merge but gets left out of the majority early on.
Predicted Finish: 15th-10th
WRONG.  Kane has already gotten better than 10th.

Lauren Harpe, 31, Elementary School Teacher from Mount Belvieu, TX
Comparables: Shan Smith, Drea Wheeler
I'm getting Shan vibes from Lauren.  She might play a similar game.  I think she has a chance to play a much more UTR game and has a chance of getting fairly far.  She is the perfect age to play Survivor, after all.  She's a divorced elementary school teacher, so she likely can handle conflict and drama.  I'm here for a deep run for Lauren.
Predicted Finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 5th.  I was pretty spot on in my assessment of Lauren, playing a UTR game.

Maddy Pomilla, 28, Charity Projects Manager from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Natalia Azoqa, Molly Byman
Maddy is another that is so hard to pinpoint.  She looks friendly enough, but like Cassidy in 43, I can't see her winning if she gets to the end.  I think she'll either be voted out shortly before the finale or right at the merge.  I'll lean towards merge.  She also could be a losing finalist like Cassidy.
Predicted Finish: 13th-8th
WRONG, 17th.  She continues the "M" curse for women!  I should've seen this coming.

Matt Blankinship, 27, Security Software Engineer from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Hai Giang, Owen Knight
We oddly didn't have a picture of him when the cast was first leaked.  That was also true of Rocksroy, so it leads me to believe Matthew won't get terribly far, either.  He must not have been as important of a player in 44.  
Predicted Finish: 13th-8th
CORRECT, 11th.  Although he should've gotten farther if not for a dumb twist...

Matthew Grinstead-Mayle, 43, Barbershop Owner from Columbus, OH
Comparables: Ben Driebergen, Mike Gabler
Matthew was featured in the season preview slipping on some rock he was trying to climb, so I wonder how that fall affected him.  I'm gonna go on a limb and say he's supposed to be someone we're supposed to remember.  He'll get far, and that fall will either not be enough to take him out or will occur late in the game.
Predicted Finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 13th.  Although I'd bet he would've made it to at least 7th had he not been med-evac'ed from the game.  Huge shame.

Sarah Wade, 26, Management Consultant from Chicago, IL
Comparables: Sarah Wilson, Cassidy Clark
And yet another female that I cannot pinpoint.  My gut says she's a pre-merge boot, like Justine from 43 or Sarah from 41.  She's just got a forgettable face.  Sorry, Sarah!
Predicted Finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 14th.  Although she played a bit better than I thought she would...

Yamil "Yam-Yam" Arocho, 36, Salon Owner from San Juan, PR
Comparables: Naseer Muttalif, Ricard Foye
Yam Yam was also featured in the preview, and he was featured last (as in he'll be the one we remember most).  He's got to get far, right?  I debated putting him as my winner pick, considering how out of the box the winners have been in this new era.  Could he?
Predicted Finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 1st.  I was so close to picking the winner, too!  Damn, I knew I should've picked Yam-Yam!

All right, based on ALL of that, how would a boot order go based on their predicted finishes?

18th: Bruce Perrault
17th: Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt
16th: Sarah Wade
15th: Carson Garrett
14th: Jaime Lynn Ruiz
13th: Kane Fritzler
12th: Matt Blankinship
11th: Maddy Pomilla
10th: Danny Massa
9th: Frannie Marin
8th: Dr. Joshua Wilder
7th: Claire Rafson
6th: Brandon Cottom
5th: Helen Li
4th: Carolyn Wiger
3rd: Yamil "Yam Yam" Arocho
2nd: Matthew Grinstead-Mayle
1st: Lauren Harpe

Yep, Lauren is my winner pick for 44!  So far, my winner picks in the new era have placed 9th, 1st, and 4th.  Let's hope she doesn't pull a Lindsay Carmine and go from favorite to pre-merge boot.  I decided against Yam-Yam because typically, in Survivor history, people with accents have not done well at the final tribal council (See Tai Trang).  The only winner in Survivor history you could say had a foreign accent was Sandra, which her accent is slightly Puerto Rican, but still very intelligible.  But I will be rooting for Yam Yam along with Brandon and Jaime (Follow her on Tiktok).  Yam Yam would be the first Hispanic male to win if he could.  

As for actual winners, my pre-season placement for them was 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), and 18th (Gabler).  Well, at least if a woman wins, I'm pretty close.  Watch Bruce end up winning now.  

Well, not too bad!  I placed 8/18 (44%) right this time!  And I was soooo close to the winner pick.  Now the people that ended up winning, I placed them 3rd, 1st, 18th, and 3rd again.  And my winner picks have finished 9th, 1st, 4th, and 5th.  This season, I most overestimated Matthew (left with injury, not my fault) and Helen.  I most underestimated Heidi, who went from 2nd boot (my prediction) to 2nd place.  Also Carson, who I thought would be more of a Zach Wurtenberger than a Sami or Xander.

SURVIVOR 43 FOUR WORD GAME AND POWER RANKINGS

 CONTINUED ALL SEASON LONG! (Scroll to the bottom to see new posts)

Before/after each episode I will be giving a four-word description of each player, likely describing what they need to do to improve their game or to avoid getting voted out.  I am going to continue this all season long, as I will be editing this and adding more at the bottom each week.  

So first will be the four-word game.  I will do one now (pre-season) and after each episode.  And for this particular order, I will go in reverse power ranking order, so starting with #18 and going to #1.  In future recaps, I will separate the power rankings and four-word game.  

18. Gabler: Make age non-factor
He obviously can't lie too much about his age, but he can make it a non-factor, by being a force in challenges, by helping around camp, and by doing his best to relate to his younger tribe mates.

17. Jeanine: Just survive the pre-merge
Jeanine is one of those players that if she can survive the pre-merge, she can get far in the game, because I doubt she'll be seen as any kind of threat.  She'll need to do whatever it takes to ensure it isn't her name coming up at Tribal Council in the pre-merge.

16. Sami: Already being counted out
Every Survivor content creator I have seen is predicting Sami to be a pre-merge boot.  So am I.  But he could prove us all wrong.  He's only 19.  He likely has the toughest task in fitting in and getting in the majority.

15. Dwight: Don't overplay your hand
Dwight needs to be extremely careful or he'll go the way of JD.  He needs to not show off his smarts, but instead relate to people and not try to do too much too soon.  If he just lays low early, he can get pretty far.

14. Nneka: Be the tribe's Cirie
Nneka will need to be a calming presence and the most level-headed person on her tribe if she wants to survive the pre-merge.  Anytime there's any drama, she needs to be the one to calm everyone.  She will not survive if she's involved in any drama whatsoever.

13. Karla: May be vastly underestimated
Karla's willing to play a dirty game, so we'll see.  She's a player that could be an early boot or a potential winner, even (like Maryanne last season).  

12. Geo: Don't just sit around
That's what Romeo did last season, a guy who I compare Geo to, both being gay Latino men.  Geo will have to be involved, but not overly involved.

11. Cassidy: Use your charm, looks
Cassidy will have to walk a fine line between using just the right amount of her looks and charm and not too much.  Unfortunately for girls like her, there's a persistent fear that the next Parvati will emerge.  

10. Justine: This season's Lindsay Dolashewich?
She's a bit of a tomboy like Lindsay, playing sports and being athletic.  She may be in a lot of immunity challenges if she can make the merge.  She may have a shot to win, just like Lindsay did.

9. Noelle: Make disability non-factor
Noelle's disability cannot be ignored, but she can downplay it.  She'll need to.  She'll need to find a way to get people thinking of her other than the paraplegic girl.  Like the challenge beast or something.  Now that may put a target on her back, but she'll at least have something else to go by.

8. Cody: Don't be too annoying
I'm getting a bad feeling about Cody, like he could be a pre-merge boot.  He's been featured a lot in the promos, so I'm unsure.  But if he just rubs the wrong person the wrong way, he could get an early boot.  Just be yourself Cody.  Just not too much.

7. Morriah: Possible lack of physicality?
I'm now starting to worry Morriah's lack of fitness may be a liability.  If her tribe struggles, I don't see her surviving until the merge.  She'll need to excel at puzzles or something.

6. Ryan: Everyone's favorite meat shield
Ryan could actually employ a strategy where he is someone's meat shield, like a Geo, Jesse, or Owen.  He then could deflect the target from him on to them, saying they're more strategic (which they likely would be).  

5. James: Cool it with chess
Everyone's thinking he's going to make a bunch of chess metaphors.  I'm just hoping he doesn't tell everyone about his chess prowess because that could put a target on his back.  

4. Owen: Will be a target
I can't imagine Owen getting through this game without being a target at some point.  First, he'll have to avoid it pre-merge, which shouldn't be too difficult.  But then once the merge happens, he'll need to rely upon a combination of allies, advantages, and possibly immunities to get far.

3. Lindsay: Be a secret strategist
Lindsay's strategy should be to downplay her abilities, but behind the scenes making a lot of moves.  It won't be easy, but if she pulls it off right, she could win.  

2. Elie: Targeted for being Aubry
I think Elie will be targeted at some point for being a smart female player similar to Aubry.  She'll need to do her best to avoid that target.

1. Jesse: Study, learn, then act
If my read of Jesse is correct, he will play the game slow at first.  He'll study people, learn their habits, priorities, etc.  Then, come around mid-merge is when he'll start making moves and using everything he has learned.  That's why I pick him as my winner this season.  

Well, that's it for the pre-season!  I will update below with a new four-word game and new power rankings

After Episode 1:

Gabler: Pulled off Zane strategy
It wasn't completely the same, but it was similar to the tactic Zane Knight used in Survivor Philippines, where he asked everyone to vote him out.  This time, Gabler said he would not play his idol and instead go for the shot in the dark and leave it up to chance.  And it worked!  They felt bad for him and switched the target to vote out a potential challenge liability instead.

Jeanine: Very possible next boot
If Jeanine's tribe loses another immunity, she will be a candidate to go home.  First, she only got one confessional in an episode where her tribe went to tribal council, which does not bode well for her future. Secondly, she is now the weak spot on her tribe.  

Sami: Tribe MVP so far
Hard to believe, but 19-year-old Sami is Baka tribe's MVP so far.  He figured out the brain teaser, and he got fire started, something Gabler, a man over twice his age, could not.  He is pulling off being 22 years old, which he lied about.  He needs to tone down the cockiness; it seems like he's being set up for a blind side.

Dwight: Not long for game
Dwight not only failed to get the Idol at the summit, but he didn't seem to build an alliance.  Everyone else in his tribe did.  This could mean Dwight's a very easy target if they lose, or Dwight's a potential swing vote if the two groups turn on each other (girls vs. Cody, Jesse, and Nneka).  I think the former is more likely.

Nneka: Doing better than predicted
Already, I might add.  I was worried she'd be the odd person out on her tribe, but it seems that is Dwight, instead.  She should stick with Jesse and Cody until the merge, as they could protect her.

Karla: Did the right thing
In not risking her vote.  I wouldn't have.  With the risk a vote, you don't automatically get a reward if one other person chooses not to risk their vote.  Instead, you have a game of chance, so your odds are much slimmer.  

Geo: Rare male potential liability
It's rare you see a male early on as a potential liability in challenges, but Geo was, in both the first reward and in the sweat part in which he and Ryan had to dig.  I give Geo a ton of credit for at least doing those two things, something James did not.

Cassidy: Not supposed to remember
I don't think we're supposed to get too attached to Cassidy, as she wasn't shown a ton in the premiere episode.  I think she'll be a boot around the merge, like I predicted.  

Justine: Very good premiere episode
Featured just the right amount with highlights, such as her starting a fire (which she didn't notice at first, ha!).  I hope she gets far.

Noelle: Disability a non-factor
Thank goodness.  And it will likely stay that way.  The showrunners likely avoided using any challenges that would put Noelle at a distinct disadvantage.  I like how she bonded with Justine.

Cody: Very impressed so far
Cody figured out how to get the flint off the bamboo that was at an angle for the first challenge.  He also formed a good alliance with Jesse and Nneka.  He doesn't seem to be too annoying... yet.  

Ryan: Will definitely make merge
Why?  Because Coco would be screwed without him.  The only way he doesn't is if he does something dumb and they know the merge is the very next day.  But if Coco didn't have Ryan, their "muscle" is Geo and James.  Yikes.  

James: Afraid of showing weakness?
James seems to be fairly strong, but didn't compete in either leg of the first challenge, nor did he do the "sweat" part with Ryan (leaving it up to tiny Geo).  He might be afraid of showing his liability in challenges, which I guess is fairly smart.  But if he doesn't show worth to his tribe, he could be an early boot.

Owen: Needs tight bond NOW
Owen became a target of the very first vote because he didn't have any tight bonds.  Sami and Gabler were together, the three girls were, but he wasn't really tight with anyone, it seemed.  He needs to work his way into the guy or girls (or both) as soon as possible, because it's either him or Jeanine if they lose again. 

Lindsay: Need to see more
I'm not sure if it's just me, but I felt like we didn't see enough of Lindsay.  Also, it seems like for the 3rd season in a row that the blue tribe will be the least featured.  Unfortunately, she wasn't able to pull out the first challenge despite being the first one to work on the flint.

Elie: Will be a FACTOR
I don't remember a premiere episode that was this good for one player.  Got a flashback package? Check.  Showed conversing with multiple people?  Check.  Highest number of confessionals?  Check.  Elie is setting up to be a huge player in the merge, likely a winner candidate for a long time.

Jesse: That's my winner pick!
I'm proud of my winner pick for working himself essentially into two alliances, with the two girls and Nneka and Cody.  He'll just need to ensure the two alliances don't come together to turn on him a la Sarah Lacina in Cagayan.

And for our departed player...

Morriah: Drew the short straw
She not only was unlucky in being on the losing tribe, but in being the target on that tribe.  Her tribe featured the oldest AND youngest players in the game, as well as Jeanine who you can't really argue is better at the physical aspect of challenges.  I don't think anyone saw her being the first boot with who else was on her tribe.  Sad to see her go so soon.

All right, now new power rankings!  These rankings factor in both how long I expect them to be in the game as well as their chance of winning.  So I might rank someone a little higher than a finale goat because they have a better chance of winning.  I'll also have a +/- to show how much they rose or fell from the previous episode.

17. Dwight (-2)
16. Jeanine (+1)
15. Gabler (+3)
14. James (-9)
13. Geo (-1)
12. Owen (-8)
11. Cassidy (0)
10. Nneka (+4)
9. Karla (+4)
8. Sami (+8)
7. Lindsay (-4)
6. Ryan (0)
5. Noelle (+4)
4. Cody (+4)
3. Justine (+7)
2. Jesse (-1)
1. Elie (+1)

Biggest rise: Sami (+8), shoutout to Justine for rising 7 and three others for rising 4 (Nneka, Noelle, Cody).
Biggest fall: James (-9), although Owen fell 8 and if you count Morriah's boot spot she'd be minus 11.  

Good to see my top two picks did well and I could keep them there.  We'll be seeing a lot of shuffling these first few episodes. Hopefully, none of my favorites get voted out or drop.  


Episode 2 Four Word Game:

Dwight: Got played, be cool
Dwight seemed hurt after the vote as Jesse didn't keep him in the loop, and they seem to be headed to a falling out.  Jesse has pull with Cody and Nneka, so Dwight has to keep his cool or he could be a goner.  At least this past episode we saw him bond with Jesse, for what it's worth.

Jeanine: Shouldn't have done that
She should not have gone through Gabler's bag.  We see he finds out in the next episode.  She should've just assumed the worst, or paid better attention/asked for clarification when he was reading his idol rules to them.  

Gabler: Health possibly an issue?
Gabler was dealing with bad nausea, so that's a big concern for him.  Also, there was a hint that he might lose the Hawaiian sling, which would cause him to lose favor in his tribe.  

James: Only zero confessional male
I love seeing the confessional count after each episode, and Coco tribe essentially got purpled this episode, which resulted in James being the only male not to get a confessional.  Yikes.

Geo: Romeo-type goat possibly
I'm getting big Romeo vibes from him.  He's gotten a bit more backstory I think (already), so that's bodes better for him, but I would not at all be surprised to see Geo at the end but not get a single vote.

Owen: Feeling a bit better
About Owen's chances, that is.  I don't think he'll win, but I think he can get at least a few votes past the merge, possibly.

Cassidy: I don't know much
About Cassidy.  I just don't.  There's a girl's alliance on Coco, and that's all I know.  They need to focus more on the Coco tribe.  It's Luvu all over again.

Nneka: Bonded with right people
Vesi voted out Justine, their strongest female competitor, over their weakest female competitor, Nneka.  And they did this because Nneka was aligned with Cody (and sorta Jesse), and Justine wasn't.  This goes to show if you are possibly a challenge liability, align with who will save your butt.

Karla: Inexplicably in best spot
Karla's one of the people who looks to be in the worst shape, physically on the show.  She's also on the tribe that's barely been featured.  Yet, I think she might be in the best spot in the entire game.  Their tribe has the numbers advantage, and she can choose between working with the girls and James or Geo and Ryan.  

Sami: Young Boston Rob possibly?
Sami was fairly adamant about not wanting Owen or Gabler to go off and have a side conversation with the girls.  He came off to me like a young Boston Rob.  This doesn't particularly bode well in today's game.  Twenty seasons ago it would.  But not today.

Lindsay: Another mom getting purpled
In 41, Heather got purpled, just as it seems Lindsay is.  Why?  The editors/producers must not think they're as interesting.  I love hearing their stories.  Let's hope this changes, because otherwise, I can't see Lindsay even getting one vote at tribal.  

Ryan: At least he's strong
If Coco goes to Tribal Council, Ryan should survive the vote, because otherwise they'd be screwed without him.  The target would either be Geo or James, likely.  He'll need to form a bond with players on other tribes to get far.

Noelle: Yet another purpled paraplegic
Both Chad and Kelly Bruno weren't featured that much on their seasons, and when they were, it involved their prosthetic legs.  The same case seems to be happening to Noelle.  In a 90 minute episode where they went to tribal council, she only had a couple confessionals and lost her closest ally.  Not good.

Cody: Social suaveness of Tony
Cody getting the beads for the immunity bracelet was eerily reminiscent of Tony getting Fire Tokens to avoid the Extortion advantage.  Cody's social game is sneakily really good, and I think he could easily win if he could just get to the end.

Jesse: Playing too many sides
Playing two or three sides can be both a good and bad thing, and it seems like in Jesse's case, it for now is a bad thing.  He seems to have lost Dwight as an ally.  Fortunately, he can hopefully bond closer to Cody and Nneka.  It's not the end for Jesse, but his chances took a shot.

Elie: Skating on thin ice
I think she'll survive another tribal if Baka goes again, but after that, I'm not sure.  Let's say hypothetically Jeanine goes.  If they lose again, would Elie be able to convince Sami and Owen to target Gabler?  She'd have to or she's a goner.

And now, for our dearly departed player...

Justine: Misread her spot completely
I had her as a long-lasting player in this game and a possible finale competitor.  Oops.  I really didn't think Vesi would vote out their strongest female competitor.  That's twice now that the weakest member was saved.

And new power rankings!  These might surprise, and I'll explain below.

16. Jeanine (0)
15. Gabler (0)
14. Noelle (-9)
13. Dwight (+4)
12. Geo (+1)
11. James (+3)
10.  Sami (-2)
9. Ryan (-3)
8. Owen (+4)
7. Cassidy (+4)
6. Nneka (+4)
5. Jesse (-3)
4. Elie (-3)
3. Lindsay (+4)
2. Cody (+2)
1. Karla (+8)

Yeah, quite a few big movers there.  Biggest fall goes to Noelle, who lost her closest ally in Justine.  Biggest jump goes to Karla, who claims my #1 spot.  Like I said, she's in the best spot on the best tribe.  Also, Coco not getting featured is very reminiscent of Luvu in 41.  And Luvu had the winner on that tribe in Erika, so I'm thinking Karla could be the Erika of that tribe.  

After Episode 3 Four Word Game:

Jeanine: Will regret bag search
So all we got from Baka is the aftermath of Jeanine going through Gabler's bag, which I think she will regret after the boys take her or her ally Ellie out.

Gabler: Health cannot be ignored
That was great of Gabler to play dumb about his Idol, but his health situation cannot be ignored.  He's struggling, and the game will not get any easier.  Fortunately, his tribe won some fruit, so maybe that'll help him, but I think sleeping on bamboo will come back to hurt him... literally.  I think they briefly mentioned Gabler sleeping on the beach, probably for that very reason.

Noelle: Just the episode needed
After losing her closest ally, this was exactly the episode Noelle needed.  She got closer to Dwight, she got a Steal a Vote, and she did very well in the challenge not even using her prosthetic.  She could end up being an endgame player.

Dwight: In a tough spot
If Vesi loses another challenge, Dwight could be in trouble.  Jesse and Cody are fairly tight.  Noelle has her Steal a Vote.  He could side with Noelle and they could target one of the guys.  That would have to be his best option.  But if they win over Noelle, he's screwed.

Geo: Not a single confessional
His confessional count sure has dwindled.  If he suddenly gets a bunch, that likely means he's a goner.  But hey, Coco keeps winning.

James: Idol hunting guilt trip
It was James' birthday, and I can't remember who, but someone on his tribe guilt-tripped him into not hunting for an Idol.  Like why'd they have to say that to him?

Sami: Idea guy yet again
Whenever the guys on Baka come up with an idea, it's almost always Sami.  I think his ability to think on the fly will get noticed come the merge and I do think he'll get targeted then.

Ryan: Tribe provider should survive
Ryan was shown fishing (I believe) when Karla approached him about the beads.  Dude wins them challenges and provides for them.  If they lose a challenge, they should not vote him out.  It is so incredibly hard to go on an immunity run in today's Survivor, that that should not be a worry ever again.

Owen: Slyly playing both sides
Owen is sort of with the girls as he was their "lookout" when Jeanine went through Gabler's bag, and he's with the guys in playing dumb about the Idol's longevity.  Hopefully this doesn't come back to bite him in the butt.

Cassidy: One narrational confessional... yay
Cassidy got a confessional!  About James' birthday, I think.  So it was about another player.  This doesn't bode well for her.  She's setting up to be the one screwed by a twist, I feel.  Like Sydney or Lydia before her.

Jesse: Honestly I was worried
After Noelle got her Steal a Vote, she could've gotten with Dwight and used that against Jesse.  She mentioned possibly stealing his vote.  Fortunately, Jesse and Cody voted out Nneka instead.  But if they have to go to tribal again, I'm worried for Jesse, as Noelle will likely use her Steal a Vote then.

Elie: She's smarter than that
Gabler is fooling her and Jeanine, and I hope that doesn't come back to hurt her.  She's a psychologist and she should know he's playing her.  Maybe's she'll realize next episode.

Lindsay: More confessionals than Heather
I'm comparing Lindsay to Heather from 41: both purpled moms from the blue tribe.  But at least Lindsay isn't being hidden like Heather basically was.  But I still worry for her chances.  

Cody: Did the smart thing
In voting out his ally Nneka.  She was an extreme challenge liability.  It sucks to lose a close ally, but as Cody said, maybe he should've formed a bond with someone stronger (Uh, yeah!).  Instead he had to get all weird about Justine just because she's a salesperson (even though he's one, too!).

Karla: She keeps killing it
Right now she's being set up so extremely well.  She's on the best tribe, with two alliances on that tribe to choose from; she's now got an idol after completing her beware advantage.  She's going to be a threat come late merge.  She's this season's Ricard and Omar.  But can she pull it off unlike the two before her?

And for our dearly departed...

Nneka: Doomed from the start
If you go on to Survivor, you either have to be athletic (enough) or good at puzzles.  She was neither.  Even if she was on the Coco tribe (who hasn't lost immunity), she likely would've cost them a challenge at the puzzle stage anyway.  So Nneka was doomed from the start.  Even though she did what she could and formed a tight bond, they could not ignore her weaknesses in challenges.

New power rankings!  It's hard to rank as I don't know which tribe loses next, but I'll try nonetheless:

15. Jeanine (+1)
14. Gabler (+1)
13. Geo (-1)
12. Dwight (+1)
11. Cassidy (-4)
10. Elie (-6)
9. James (+2)
8. Ryan (+1)
7. Jesse (-2)
6. Sami (+4)
5. Noelle (+9)
4. Lindsay (-1) 
3. Cody (-1)
2. Owen (+6)
1. Karla (0)

Noelle with the biggest rise as she returns to the #5 spot which she was before last week.  Owen's jump of 6 cannot be ignored.  Elie fell 6 spots for me as I'm not a huge fan of what I've seen lately from her.  Karla retains the top spot with her impressive episode.  Also, the people that have been voted out were ranked #7, #3, and #6 as their last ranking.  Let's hope my predictions get a little better.

After Episode 4 Four Word Game:

Jeanine: Mark still on chin
Lack of content from Baka outside of one thing which I'll get to, so... hey she still has that mark on her chin!  It's starting to look better, though.

Gabler: Kindness not appreciated, unfortunately
Sometimes you can have nice intentions in the game of Survivor, but you have to have some social awareness.  The rest of his tribe was sleeping soundly, and Gabler decides to cover them with a palm frond.  It only woke them up.  This doesn't bode well for him.

Geo: Saved by Lindsay's paranoia
Geo was likely the target because he was in the minority and received a vote.  That vote, however, did wonders for his game as he was able to not only survive but so did his closest ally, Ryan.

Dwight: No moment too big
Dwight was put on the "hero" role essentially in both challenges and he came through both times.  He landed the sand bag, and he completed the two puzzles (with the help of his tribe).  His ability to do well under pressure has not gone unnoticed by me.

Cassidy: Pointed out the obvious
After the immunity challenge, Cassidy pointed out that Vesi helped Baka because Coco had yet to go to Immunity.  She took it as a slight when in all fairness, they were trying to keep the tribes even.  Also, I think Cassidy will be a forgetful boot shortly after the merge.

Elie: Tone it down Elie
She's one of the bigger personalities on her tribe with Gabler, and she needs to tone it down.  If they go to tribal and Gabler has the guys on his side, she's a likely target.  And she doesn't have an idol to protect herself... yet.

James: Playing it cool worked
James kept a level head in the hours leading up to tribal, despite Lindsay's paranoia.  This is what people need to do more often.  Trust in your allies and trust in the plan.  Only be paranoid when you notice something distinctly off.

Ryan: Surprisingly struggled in challenges
Ryan struggled in the two challenges, first taking the longest to get the blocks off the archway, and then not being much help in the early stage of the immunity challenge (although he was the biggest force in getting the pieces up the rope crawl).  Therefore, I thought he'd be the target of the vote, but nope.  That bodes well for him.

Jesse: Cody's voice of reason
I think Jesse will be Cody's voice of reason/conscience as they move together in the game.  He was the one who did not want to steal their machete.  We'll see how this dynamic progresses as we move forward.

Sami: Keeping low for now
Sami doesn't have to be his tribe's leader or be very active in discussions.  He should lay low for a while to avoid getting his threat level up there.  Once the mid-merge hits (if he's still in the game), that's when he should turn it back on.

Noelle: Angelina would be proud
Noelle expertly negotiated to get fruit and a tool kit instead of the 10 fish (since they didn't have a fire at the time).  Angelina from DvG would be proud.  This could come in handy come the merge.  Also, she made friends with Baka by helping them with their puzzle, but she also made enemies with Coco.

Cody: Expertly used sales experience
Selling (or bartering) 101 is asking for more than you expect.  Which is exactly what he did.  Cody also dominated that first challenge for them.  He's going to be a force come the merge, but he's also going to have a target on his back, likely from the Coco tribe.  

Owen: Need to do something
Owen will have to make moves in this game to get far and win at the end.  I actually see him in the same boat as Maryanne last season.  She, too, was in a bit of trouble early.  She too, was not really a big contender to win pre-merge.  But she turned it on, made moves, and won the game.  Owen will need to do the same.

Karla: Smartest person in game?
Karla's social awareness is off the charts.  She noticed Cody fooling them when he came to steal an item.  She was the one to tell Lindsay to keep her cool.  She's going to make it far.  

And to our departed...

Lindsay: Paranoia is death.  Always.
We've seen this happen many times before in Survivor.  You get paranoid before a vote, your allies notice, and then they turn the vote on you.  Let this be a lesson to future Survivor players.

All right, new power rankings!  Will there be much change?  

14. Gabler (0)
13. Cassidy (-6)
12. Jeanine (+3)
11. Elie (-1)
10. Geo (+3)
9. Dwight (+3)
8. Ryan (0)
7. Owen (-5)
6. Sami (0)
5. Jesse (+2)
4. Noelle (+1)
3. Cody (0)
2. James (+7)
1. Karla (0)

Biggest rise: James
Biggest fall: Cassidy (followed closely by Owen)

James rose because he handled tribal and the drama leading up to it well.  Cassidy fell for no other reason than me believing that she has no shot of winning this game.  Owen fell because I realized I had him too high last week (for now).  Coco tribe seems to have odds stacked against them as the two other tribes seem to want to work together, so they'll need to find some way to get the odds back in their favor.  And again, someone ranked high got voted out, making it my #7, #3, #6, and now #4 being voted out.  Yikes.

After Episode 5 Four Word Game

Gabler: Just straight kicking himself
For giving Jeanine that bead.  Let this be a lesson, don't give anything to a player you want to vote out.  

Cassidy: Almost pulled a Lindsay
Carla and James almost switched to Cassidy for the very reason they voted out Lindsay.  Fortunately for Cassidy, they did not.  I don't see Cassidy as a huge power player (likely early boot after merge).

Jeanine: ALMOST MVP of Episode
If she had won the KIP advantage instead of Geo, she would've had one of the greatest episodes (in terms of advantages) in the new era of Survivor.  She did a great job of getting the beads.

Elie: Lack of discretion hurt
When you're discussing an Idol or advantage, you have to make sure no one is going to walk up on you, which Owen did.  Oops.  Hopefully, for Elie's sake, she doesn't make a similar mistake after the merge.

Dwight: My poor purpled player
Vesi didn't get any camp content and only Jesse got confessionals since he did that summit.  Dwight is the only player to see his confessionals dwindle every episode.  I don't know much about his gameplay.  We need more!

Ryan: Committed a cardinal sin
In throwing a challenge.  Was he just saying this because of his gaffe?  Possibly.  But if he did throw it, that's something you never want to do unless you're positive you and your alliance are safe (if you have one), which is rare.  Ryan lost his closest ally, and now he'll have to make a new one.

Owen: Right place, right time
Owen found himself at the right place at the right time, because otherwise, he doesn't learn about Jeanine's advantage.  Let this be a lesson: Go on many walks; you never know what you might stumble upon.

Sami: Wants to create chaos
I think Sami told Gabler about Jeanine's idol because he wants to create chaos.  I think he wants everyone to go at each other's throats.  It's a bold strategy, and we'll see if it pays off.

Jesse: Risked for a reason
I thought it wasn't particularly smart for Jesse to risk his vote, but then I realized it was.  First off, his tribe had already won.  Secondly, he must've seen 41 and 42 and noticed the merge would be after the next vote.  Because Jesse doesn't have a vote, people will have to wait for an additional tribal to know where his loyalties lie.  It's actually smart, and you can tell multiple people you would've voted with them (if you had your vote).  

Noelle: So impressive in challenges
Since we didn't get any camp content, all I can say is I am so impressed with how well Noelle has done in challenges.  In the last challenge, how she hopped forward for as long as she did was impressive.

Cody: Will be challenge threat
I'm calling it now: Cody will be a challenge threat.  I think he has an incredible amount of concentration and dexterity.  It's going to be tough for him to get a target off his back.

James: I know his placement
James will finish as either a runner-up in this game or one of the first boots of the finale.  This guy is making it to the finale, but he's not winning.  I could be wrong.  But I think he'll have to take out Karla to boost his resumé to have any shot.

Karla: Still playing flawless game
I've still yet to see a crack in her game.  She's like a more impressive Erika (41).  Although a more impressive Erika in 41 likely gets taken out before Final 3.  We'll see about Karla.

And to our departed...

Geo: Missed Karla's other alliance
It seems like Geo was under the impression that Karla was only aligned with him.  This is why you need to be aware of who your allies might also be allied with.  Cost Geo his game.  

New Power Rankings!  I thought I'd shake it up since we know the merge is coming, and a cross-tribal alliance of Vesi and Baka seems possible.

13. Ryan (-5)
12. Jeanine (0)
11. Gabler (+3)
10. Cassidy (+3)
9. Elie (+2)
8. Dwight (+1)
7. Noelle (-3)
6. Owen (+1)
5. Sami (+1)
4. James (-2)
3. Cody (0)
2. Karla (-1)
1. Jesse (+4)

Biggest Rise: Jesse (+4)
Biggest Fall: Ryan (-5)

3 of the remaining 4 Coco players fell (Cassidy didn't because she couldn't).  I had Jesse rise.  I think he's maybe in the best position.  He has a shield in Cody.  Karla doesn't have a shield.  Will the big names be targeted first?  And what twist will they introduce with the merge this time?  We'll just have to wait and see. 

After Episode 6 Four Word Game

Ryan: Always go with jock
It seems like the stud or the jock's team always wins the merge challenge.  Jonathan's team won the challenge in 42 (before the ridiculous hourglass twist stole it) and now Ryan's team won it here.  Fortunately for Ryan, there was no hourglass twist, otherwise he would've been a candidate to go.

Jeanine: Some good, some bad
Jeanine lost her closest ally in Elie, which is not good.  It's hard to see her swaying a jury after that, but if she plays close to flawlessly the rest of the game, it's possible.  But she can argue she didn't have her vote to help turn the tide and she saved her idol for herself.  Her playing her idol correctly just became even more critical.

Gabler: Only won the battle
He won the battle, but he did not win the war.  Jeanine is likely against him.  Now that Gabler will (likely?) be vulnerable, he may be a spite vote.  Generally now is when threats leave, but other players may decide to get rid of him due to how brash and blunt he is.  No one's going to want to ride to the end with him.

Cassidy: Skirted vote with ease
I don't know how she did it.  Her name was brought up, but she didn't receive a vote.  Instead, her ally, James, did.  I'm becoming more and more impressed with her game.  She's playing a very solid UTR game.

Dwight: Got purpled yet again
This was the second episode in a row he doesn't have a single confessional, and he's only had ONE in the last 3 episodes.  He's getting a Romeo-like edit, meaning I think he'll be a goat that gets dragged to the end.  The dude needs to do something to be featured more.

Noelle: Forcefully given gray rock?
I want to talk about the merge challenge.  The ramp that was part of it looked like something Noelle might not be able to do because of her disability.  Did production make her take the gray rock as a result?  But one would think if they have an amputee on the show, that they'd only include challenges they could reasonably perform.  Or maybe this was the plan all along if she was still in the game.

Owen: Still not liking game
He's just not doing enough.  At best, he's Sami's right-hand man.  He did well in not succumbing to Elie or Gabler's accusations, but he needs to do something besides reacting.  I did like his advantage recap; that was good.

Sami: There is a path
I could see Sami winning.  He'd likely have to go up against a pair like Dwight and Owen or Owen and Jeanine (provided Jeanine's game isn't great).  But he's got a path.  I don't see him beating James, Cody, Jesse, Karla, or Cassidy, so he's got some work to do.

James: Reactions were on point
His reactions to his votes were hilarious; I can't wait to see what he does if and when he's voted out.  He's lucky Elie stirred up too much drama because otherwise, he may have been the boot.

Cody: Social game is spectacular
I'm shocked he didn't get a single vote.  His social game is one of the best we've seen in a while.  I can comfortably say that if he gets to the end (without destroying his game), he is winning.  But the problem is, can he get there?  

Karla: Hopefully hand not hindrance
Karla hurt her hand badly during the challenge.  We know Survivor likes to do a lot of endurance challenges in the individual portion of the game, many of which involve using your hands.  Karla likely won't be winning many individual challenges.  Also, I felt like her lack of strategy shown isn't a particularly good sign here.  

Jesse: Lost vote no harm
Jesse didn't have his vote, but it was no harm, as the person who his closest allies voted for (Elie) was voted out.  He still got a few good confessionals leading me to believe he's at least making mid-merge (F8 or better).

And now to our departed...

Elie: Dug her own grave
Most people couldn't handle Elie's antics, including her own former tribemates in Owen and Sami.  Sure, Gabler threw her under the bus, but she threw out James, Cassady, and Cody.  Way to piss off the two other tribes.  Someone playing a much more subtle and sly game is going to win, as clearly these kinds of moves will not work.

New power rankings! Crazy that there's still 12 people left.

12. Gabler (-1)
11. Ryan (+2)
10. Jeanine (+2)
9. Owen (-3)
8. Noelle (-1)
7. Dwight (+1)
6. James (-2)
5. Sami (0)
4. Karla (-2)
3. Cassidy (+7)
2. Jesse (-1)
1. Cody (+2)

Biggest Rise: Cassidy (+7)
Biggest Fall: Owen (-3)

Cassidy rose for me; as someone who I was sure was going to get votes based on who was immune, the fact that she didn't get any speaks volumes.  She's a legit player and threat.  Owen fell the most because I'm not liking his chances of getting to the end or winning.  Cody claims the top spot, he's to me got the best shot so long as he doesn't make himself a target.

After Episode 7 Four Word Game

Gabler: Yet to see vulnerable
Gabler has had immunity on the two individual votes so far.  Will he be a target when he finally doesn't have immunity?  Or will everyone consider him a joke?  Time will tell.

Ryan: Keeps skirting on by
Ryan is like some odd combination of Jonathan and Romeo from last season.  He's got (near) the challenge ability of Jonathan combined with the lack of play of Romeo.  He's a possible finale goat.

Jeanine: Blindsided last two times
First she loses her closest ally, and now she loses her idol.  Jeanine is not having a good merge (for someone still in the game).  I'm not sure she can recover her game enough to get votes at the end (if she makes it that far).

Owen: Most mid player currently
Owen is the most mid player right now, meaning he is neither a target nor a goat.  He's not being voted out soon, nor do I think he's going far.  He's not invisible in the edit, but he's not the most visible.  He's mid.

Noelle: Can't be too aggressive
Elie was too aggressive, and it cost her the game.  Noelle started being aggressive, and Jesse and Cody turned on her as a result.  Heaven forbid a perceived passive player try making moves.  Yikes.

James: Will his luck continue?
James has gotten votes each of the first two post-merge tribal councils.  Now that they know he has the KIP, he's likely going to remain a target.  Yet, Coco is the one tribe to not have someone voted out post-merge since they have not turned on each other.

Sami: Showed maturity, laid low
First off, when his partner Noelle struggled in the net crawl, Sami showed incredible maturity in not blaming her and being the first to help her out.  No one is going to believe it when he tells them he's 19.  Secondly, he laid low for most of this episode, which is good.  But he's got to be careful Coco doesn't get the numbers by pulling in a few extra players.

Karla: Post-merge surprisingly quiet
For someone visible and active pre-merge, she's been mostly quiet post-merge.  She's also not lost an ally.  I think she's playing it perfectly so far.  She'll need to turn it back on when the time is right, which I'm sure she will.

Cassidy: Back to being invisible
There were a few pre-merge episodes where Cassidy was largely invisible, and she got featured on the Geo boot episode.  But basically since then, she's been invisible.  This last episode she got zero confessionals.  That's usually not a good thing, but Erica was invisible at this point, too. 

Jesse: Tribal lines now blurred
Seems like old tribal lines are gone as Jesse (and Cody) turned on Dwight/Noelle.  He showed his bond with Karla, which is good.  Is there a core group?  There might be, with players like Gabler, Jeanine, Noelle, and Ryan on the verge of being on the outs.

Cody: No progression this episode
There wasn't much for me to think that Cody's chances are improving.  He showed incredible strength and toughness at the challenge.  I'm not sure he should've turned on Vesi just yet, but we'll see the fallout next episode.

And to our departed player...

Dwight: Needed tighter Jesse bond
Dwight and Jesse's bond was definitely fractured, but Dwight needed to mend fences and become close to Jesse (and Cody).  If he had, he likely survives that vote.  He was disposable to them.  Also, his invisibility the last few episodes leads me to believe other invisible players might be the target of future votes.

New power rankings!

11. Jeanine (-1)
10. Ryan (+1)
9. Gabler (+3)
8. Noelle (0)
7. Cassidy (-4)
6. James (0)
5. Owen (+4)
4. Sami (+1)
3. Cody (-2)
2. Jesse (0)
1. Karla (+3)

Biggest Rise: Owen (+4)
Biggest Fall: Cassidy (-4)

The funny thing is, Owen nor Cassidy didn't really do much; my perspective of their games just changed due to how other players are doing in comparison to them.  Karla reclaims the top spot since I like the fact she's laying low, hasn't lost an ally, and still no one knows of her idol.  

After Episode 8 Four Word Game

Ryan: Poor time to fish
I assume they only had 1/2 a day at most to strategize to figure out who to vote for.  Ryan almost had the vote turned on him because he wasn't a part of the talks and went fishing.  Players aren't going to float your name if you're around.  He should've waited to fish until the following day.  Yet another problem with 26 day seasons, as there probably isn't much time to fish.

Gabler: From target to goat?
Gabler was going to be target come the merge, but he got immunity for the first two votes.  He was finally vulnerable, but wasn't even a target.  Looks like the seven aren't considering him a threat, and might turn on each other before taking him out.  Gabler could be a finale goat.  I bet they'll target him if he wins immunity again.

Noelle: Weird spot, morally speaking
Noelle is well-liked by this cast, but she's on the wrong side of the numbers.  Despite this, we did not see her name come up.  I think no one wants to be the one who targets the amputee.  But no one will want to go to the end against her, either.  Someone's going to have to bite the bullet and target her at some point.  

Cassidy: Couldn't get her way
Shockingly, Cassidy was the only one not to vote correctly (other than Jeanine).  She voiced that she wanted a man out, but she couldn't get her way.  This speaks volumes, and I can't see a jury awarding her the title of Sole Survivor over James or Karla (if she goes to the end with them).

James: Building a solid case
James survived the two initial "merge" votes, and now he got most everyone to vote out Jeanine.  He got his way.  He still has Ryan as a "shield" and ally.  But I worry people, namely Cody, Jesse, and/or Sami, will notice this and target him.

Owen: Playing from the bottom
Good on Owen for winning immunity, but unfortunately for him, he'll be playing from the bottom for what seems like the rest of the game.  His best chance is to hope the seven turn on each other and forget about him.  But even then, he'd be a finale goat at best.

Sami: Can't turn back now
Sami was very close to joining the minority, and if he was the sole swing vote, he likely would've.  And it would've been a smart move, too.  But just him wasn't enough.  And now that Jeanine is gone and he couldn't get his way with Ryan, his chances of taking over the game took a shot.

Cody: Going with the flow
Cody is fully embracing the Aloha spirit now, going with the flow and the majority.  I don't dislike this strategy.  He also was the runner-up at the immunity challenge again, so he may get noticed as a challenge threat at some point.

Jesse: Move of the game?
Jesse is not only safeguarding Cody's idol, but he got Dwight to give him Jeanine's idol.  That might be the move of the game, and a move that could sway a jury.  

Karla: Playing flawless game still
Karla wisely listened to Sami's proposal of voting out Ryan instead of instantly shooting him down.  She, like Cody, is also laying a bit low.  And still, no one knows about her idol.

And to our dearly departed....

Jeanine: Unluckiest three tribals ever
Jeanine lost her closest ally in the first "merge" vote, thought she lost her idol (and another close ally), and then got voted out, all back to back to back.  That's a string of tribal councils you rarely see someone have. 

All right, new power rankings!  The majority seven alliance makes up the top 7, of course.

10. Owen (-5)
9. Gabler (0)
8. Noelle (0)
7. Ryan (+3)
6. Cassidy (+1)
5. Sami (-1)
4. James (+2)
3. Cody (0)
2. Karla (-1)
1. Jesse (+1)

Biggest Rise: Ryan (+3)
Biggest Fall: Owen (-5)

Ryan somehow has the biggest rise, despite being the secondary target and receiving a couple of votes.  I feel since he survived that vote, he'll survive for a bit longer.  Owen falls the most as I feel he is likely the next target, considering his immunity win.  Jesse and Karla flip-flop again for the top spot. 

After Episode 9 Four Word Game: 

Owen: Controlling temper is key
Not that Owen has much of a temper, but the reason we've seen so little yelling and arguments in recent seasons is that that's almost a guaranteed way to get yourself voted out.  Fortunately for Owen, the other three felt James was too big of a threat.

Gabler: On a Mike path?
Gabler's game is starting to look more and more like Mike's last season.  At this point, I still don't think Gabler can win at the end.  Especially with Ryan gone, there's not anyone he could sit next to and win.  But I think his chances of getting to the end are pretty good.

Noelle: Such a clever move
That wasn't the Vote Steal's intended use, but man, did Noelle use it cleverly.  She didn't use it to really steal a vote; she used it to give James a sense of security.  Noelle is a dark horse, and there still isn't talk of booting her because of her threat to win at the end.  

Cassidy: Shouldn't have survived vote
Ryan was a goat and someone you want around camp to help get food, tend to the fire, etc.  Cassidy isn't as helpful and she's a social/strategic threat.  Yet Cody and Jesse picked her sticking around over Ryan.  Another perplexing move, especially considering they saw James had been voted out.

Sami: Losing hope for him
Sami's game isn't bad, but it's not a winner's game.  He's like Xander that's playing harder, but not more successfully.  At this point, I don't see Sami winning, and I could see him losing to the likes of Cassidy or Noelle.

Cody: Third time's the charm
For the third time in a row the final two of a challenge was Cody and someone else.  First, he lost to Gabler.  Then he lost to Owen.  Now, he finally outlasted someone in Ryan.  Good for him.  Although, again, I'm perplexed by his and Jesse's decision to vote out Ryan.

Karla: Had to do it
Karla had to turn on James at some point.  Is it a bit early?  Maybe.  But better to turn on your partner in crime a little early rather than too late (and they get you).  Also, kudos to Karla, she killed it in that challenge with a bum finger.

Jesse: Bad feeling about this
You know when in every Star Wars movie they say, "I have a bad feeling about this"?  Well, that's how I feel about Jesse's game.  Of course in the promo next week we got Gabler turning on Jesse and Cody.  We'll see.  But I need to see something from Jesse to assert his place and dominance in the game.  

And to our two departed players...

James: Never become the mafioso
If people think you are running things, they will target you.  That's exactly what happened with James.  I don't know what he could have done differently.  His social game wasn't the best, seeing how he treated Owen.

Ryan: What a good sport
I'll miss Ryan and his upbeat nature.  He definitely did not hold any animosity.  I wish he had stayed, and he should've.  He'd have been a goat to drag to the end, which was maybe his strategy.  

All right, new power rankings!  This is going to be very different.  

8. Owen (+2)
7. Sami (-2)
6. Gabler (+3)
5. Cody (-2)
4. Jesse (-3)
3. Cassidy (+3)
2. Karla (0)
1. Noelle (+7)

Biggest rise: Noelle (+7)
Biggest fall: Jesse (-3)

A new #1!  And all three girls are in the top 3 for me.  I think the big threats are going to get targeted, so that's why Cody and Jesse fell.  Sami's game is just falling flat for me, and I don't think he has a great shot at the end, which is why he fell.  But Noelle... she's low-key playing a great game, and she has really done perfectly since losing her ally in Justine on the second vote of the game.  Also, I put Jesse ahead of Cody simply because Jesse has two idols.  (Has he even given Cody back his idol?  I feel like if he had, we would've seen it).

After Episode 10 Four Word Game: 

Owen: Still at the bottom...
Owen is still a fan favorite, but unfortunately he is still at the bottom, as he was not in on the Noelle boot.  Hard to see him winning.  Against Sami and Gabler, he'd have a shot, but would likely lose if anyone else is in the final 3 with him.

Sami: Slowly became new goat
There's always someone every season who we know if they get to the end, they're getting one vote, max.  That right now might be Sami.  It's a shame; he had such a strong start.

Gabler: Making moves, but... respected?
Gabler has done what Sami should've done.  But can Gabler get the votes and respect at the end to win?  If he's going against the right people, possibly. And I'll say this: He's doing much better than I thought he would at the start of the season.

Cody: From presence to invisible
Cody was one of the largest pre-merge personalities/presences.  But since the merge, he's kind of disappeared.  He's going to need a big episode/big move to regain some swagger.  That big move could be taking out his closest ally in Jesse.

Jesse: Too obvious an edit
Jesse's edit now is bordering on way too obvious.  We haven't seen a winner highlighted this much since Ben in HHH or Tony in Cagayan.  Can Jesse pull it off?   He's dominating, and it would be suicide for anyone to go to the final 3 with him.

Cassidy: Needed that immunity win
The talk was about splitting the vote between her and Karla before the challenge.  Who knows if they still would've switched to Noelle had she not won?  Cassidy's in a precarious spot, being both a target and someone I can't see winning at the end (at least not against Jesse, Karla, or perhaps Cody).

Karla: Didn't get big moves-itis
Karla was likely tempted to play her idol, but she smartly saved it, trusting in Jesse and Cody.  She didn't feel the need to try to make a big move... yet.  But if she can play it successfully to take out Jesse or Cody, she's got smooth sailing the rest of the way.

And to our departed player...

Noelle: Wasn't UTR long enough
It's very hard to play UTR (Under the Radar), but if Noelle was able to a bit longer, she would've been in a great spot.  I put stock in her chances too soon.  Also, what a weird episode for Noelle to go from winning that reward challenge that way to getting blindsided.  

All right, new power rankings!  

7. Sami (0)
6. Owen (+2)
5. Cassidy (-2)
4. Cody (+1)
3. Gabler (+3)
2. Karla (0)
1. Jesse (+3)

Biggest rise: Gabler and Jesse (+3)
Biggest fall: Cassidy (-2)

Technically, Noelle had the biggest fall, going from 1st to 8th.  Yikes.  Also, yes, I have Gabler third.  I do think he could win against Cody or Cassidy at a Final 3, but he would need to have a good FTC.  We don't see many his age doing that in recent memory.  Jesse reclaims the top spot with one of the best edits for a single player in recent history.  His three-step plan to a blind side is not something you see from someone who finishes 7th or loses at FTC.

After Episode 11 Four Word Game

Owen: Becoming the finale goat
I hate to say it, but Owen is becoming a finale goat.  Everyone realizes he's been on the wrong side of the vote (except this last vote).  I could definitely see him getting to the end, but I'd be surprised if he got more than one vote, if that.

Cassidy: Keeps sliding on by
Somehow she keeps doing it.  She's been linked to Karla for a while, and it seems likely one of them will go soon.  The smarter move (for everyone else) would be to get rid of Karla, but she does still have an idol...

Cody: Factor in the finale
Cody's going to factor into the finale someway somehow and something he does will help determine the winner.  He might set up his buddy Jesse for a win, or completely remove him from contention.  I have a feeling also since Cody said he wouldn't want to do firemaking against Sami that Cody will be doing the Final 4 firemaking challenge against someone.

Gabler: The Mike this season
I think Gabler's going to the final 3.  I think he'll be the Mike (from 42) of this season.  He'll have a shot at the end, but someone, either Karla, Jesse, or Cody (Or even Cassidy?) will beat him.  

Karla: Probably needed that immunity
Otherwise, she likely uses her idol, Sami still goes, and she goes into the Final 6 with no safety.  She's virtually guaranteed Final 5 because of her idol.  She might still use it to save Cassidy as a sign of power, and to drag Cassidy to the end.  

Jesse: Sitting pretty... too pretty?
I believe he technically still has two idols.  Will either get played?  Or will the people with them just target the people without them?  It seems like in this new era, idols are more of a shield than a weapon.  People are too scared to go after someone with an idol.  

And to our departed player...

Sami: Strategy wasn't the best
Sami showed his lack of maturity/age with his poor strategy post-merge.  He flip-flopped and never really formed tight bonds.  He should've become Gabler or Owen's sidekick and then made a move on them or someone around Final 6.  

New power rankings!  2nd to last of the season!

6. Cassidy (-1)
5. Owen (+1)
4. Gabler (-1)
3. Cody (+1)
2. Karla (0)
1. Jesse (0)

Biggest Rise: Cody and Owen
Biggest Fall: Cassidy and Gabler

I didn't see much reason to move anyone significantly, seeing as there are only so many spots left.  Cassidy drops to the bottom, because I think she's next to go.  The idols in the game protect my top 3.  I guess it could also be one of the other 2 in Owen or Gabler, but Cassidy is viewed as more of a threat.  We shall see. 

After Episode 12 Four Word Game
Heads up, these will focus more on their end games, not the past episode.

Cassidy: Only one victorious path?
With Cassidy, there may be only one path to victory: getting Karla out at 5 and Jesse at 4.  I think she could beat Gabler and Owen.  But that's going to be a tough task, and will also require her to be immune for the votes at 4 and/or 5.

Owen: Likability could help, hinder
Owen is likable and I'm sure everyone knows it.  This could help him get votes at the end, or it could be the reason he is sent to fire-making.  Owen's a bit of a longshot, but I wouldn't fully count him out.

Gabler: Not looked at seriously
Gabler's got a decent shot of getting to the end, but will the jury look at him seriously if he does?  He seems like someone that'll be lucky to get a vote or two.

Karla: Fate in Jesse's hands
If Jesse wants to keep her around as someone he can beat at challenges (fire-making or otherwise), he can do that since he still has an idol.  But the question is: Will he?

Jesse: Set up to win
We haven't seen someone set up to win this much since Tony in WaW.  If Jesse cannot get to the end, it'll prove the game is still a bit flawed, as he has clearly played the best game.  

And to our departed....

Cody: Must play Survivor again
How can you not bring someone like Cody back?  He's perhaps the best character in this new era and is a great player.  He got blindsided in epic fashion, and it'd be interesting to see how he treats his closest allies if he were given the chance to play again.

Final Power Rankings of the Season!

5. Gabler (-1)
4. Owen (+1)
3. Karla (-1)
2. Cassidy (+4)
1. Jesse (0)

Biggest Rise: Cassidy (+4)
Biggest Falls: Gabler and Karla (-1)

I keep Karla fairly high, because she wins if she gets to the end against virtually anyone (Jesse would be tough, but doable).  Her chance of being the next boot is very high though, however.  Gabler and Owen clog the bottom, both are 1-vote finalists (at most) if they get to the end.  Cassidy's got a fairly good shot of getting to the end and a somewhat decent shot of winning, especially if the next two boots are Karla and Jesse.

Well, with the finale a week away, I'm going to list the jurors and their preferences with regards to the Final 5.  This isn't factual, but what I believe to be their preference on who wins (from most to least): 

Jeanine: Karla, Cassidy, Jesse, Owen, Gabler
James: Jesse, Owen, Cassidy, Karla, Gabler
Ryan: Karla, Gabler, Jesse, Owen, Cassidy
Noelle: Karla, Jesse, Owen, Cassidy, Gabler 
Sami: Jesse, Karla, Owen, Cassidy, Gabler
Cody: Jesse, Karla, Gabler, Owen, Cassidy

So, with 5 points being someone's favorite, 4 being someone's second favorite, here are the standings:

Jesse: 25
Karla: 25
Owen: 16
Cassidy: 13
Gabler: 11

So, a tie between Jesse and Karla.  Now let's see how each of the final 5 would view the rest of the 4.

Jesse: Karla, Owen, Gabler, Cassidy
Karla: Jesse, Cassidy, Owen, Gabler
Owen: Jesse, Karla, Gabler, Cassidy
Cassidy: Karla, Owen, Jesse, Gabler
Gabler: Jesse, Owen, Karla, Cassidy

Now each of those rankings get added to the ones above.  The max here is 4, then 3, then 2, and 1.  They have slightly less of an impact since 3 of those will be in the final 3, anyway.

Jesse: 39 (+14)
Karla: 38 (+13)
Owen: 27 (+11)
Cassidy: 19 (+6)
Gabler: 17 (+6)

Still VERY close between Jesse and Karla, but Jesse has the slight edge.  Finally, here are my rankings of Final 3's, from least likely to most likely to occur:

Jesse - Karla - Cassidy
Jesse - Karla - Owen
Jesse - Karla - Gabler
Karla - Cassidy - Owen
Karla - Cassidy - Gabler
Cassidy - Owen - Gabler
Jesse - Cassidy - Owen
Jesse - Cassidy - Gabler
Jesse - Gabler - Owen

My money is on Jesse to win.  He has an idol to get to 4.  Unless he wins final 4 immunity, he'll need to win final 4 firemaking or somehow convince the winner to take him (unlikely).  And the best part is, he was my preseason winner pick.  If he falls short, hopefully Owen or Karla can take it home.  

After the Finale Four Word Game:

Karla: Should've shown her value
I think Karla could've been valuable to Jesse.  She could've been someone he used as a shield at 4.  And knowing now the final 4 challenge, Karla likely doesn't win due to her injuries.  

Jesse: Legendary fallen angel player
There have been a lot of great fallen angel players in Survivor history (the player eliminated right before the Final Tribal Council).  There's been Kathy, Cirie, Terry, Ozzy, David, and now Jesse.  Like I said above, Jesse should've used Karla as a shield.  Sure, there's a chance he loses to her at the end if they both make it, but that's a much better chance than trying to beat Gabler or Owen at fire.

Owen: Greatest zero vote finalist?
Owen is certainly up there.  He owned up to his game, unlike most zero vote finalists.  I think Owen is up there with Spencer and Fischbach as one of the best.  

Cassidy: Winning immunity her downfall
First, I don't see a path for Cassidy starting at 5 for her to win.  Anyway, her winning Final 4 immunity was the end of her game.  Only one person has won final 4 immunity (since the introduction of forced firemaking) and kept it and won the game, and that was Nick Wilson.  Everyone else has lost, from Dominic to Noura to Natalie to Xander to Romeo.

Gabler: Ultimate zero to hero
Who saw this guy, who after the first challenge, almost pulled a Zane Knight-type move, winning the game?  It's crazy.  It goes to show how much people can change in the game.  And kudos to Gabler; it definitely seemed like no one suffered as much as him on the island (due to his age).  

Well, that's all I have!  My pre-season winner pick, Jesse, was one fire-making challenge away from winning the game.  We still have not had a full Hispanic man win Survivor.  But at least we had our first old guy winner since Bob.  See you for Season 44 in March.  I'll do a pre-season predictions post in February.