2023 NFL Predictions

 Hard to believe, but another NFL season is almost upon us.  I might be doing this a tad early, but I'd rather do it now when I have time.  Anyway, I will go division by division, predicting win/loss records and then the playoffs for each conference.  Normally, I'd go further in detail to my Seahawks, but I don't think I will this time.  I don't know what it is; I'm not particularly excited about this upcoming season.  I feel like we outperformed last year, so I'm expecting some regression this year.  Also, I'm going to make some very surprising picks, because I feel we get surprised by the NFL every year, and there are always a few teams that are almost the complete opposite of what we expect.  Anyway, here are my predicted NFL standings!  Wild cards will have asterisks.

AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills: 11-6
2. Miami Dolphins: 10-7*
3. New York Jets: 9-8
4. New England Patriots: 7-10
The Bills still have the most talented roster in the AFC East, but it's tightening fast.  I wouldn't be surprised if they had to fight for a wild card, but I still put them as division winners because Miami and the Jets are still missing a few pieces.  The Patriots remain competitive under Belichick, but remain mediocre at best.

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens: 10-7
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-9
4. Cleveland Browns: 6-11
Call this the battered and blue division because these teams are going to beat each other up this season.  I don't see any team losing or winning more than 4 in-division games.  And I hate predicting injuries, but I have a bad feeling about Joe Burrow.  His pre-season calf injury worries me and makes me think that might linger or he might suffer a different minor injury that knocks him out for a few games and costs the Bengals the division.  The Steelers and Browns remain competitive, but it's hard to do much better in a very tough AFC.  And yes, I have Mike Tomlin suffer his first losing season as head coach.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts: 9-8
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-9
3. Tennessee Titans: 8-9
4. Houston Texans: 5-12
Here's one of my surprising predictions: The Colts winning the AFC South.  Anthony Richardson has a solid/borderline rookie of the year campaign and leads the Colts to the playoffs.  The Jags return back to Earth a bit and realize they've still got a few holes.  The Titans are just... there.  The Texans still have a ways to go, but surprise some people. Ha!  Try all of us.  What I thought would be the Colts ended up being the Texans.  

AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5
2. Denver Broncos: 11-6*
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 7-10
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 2-15
The Chiefs are good, as expected, and retain the AFC's #1 seed.  It's only with a record of 12-5, though, due to the competitiveness of the AFC.  The Broncos are another of my surprise teams, and they claim the top wild-card spot.  Russell Wilson mostly returns to form thanks to the help of new head coach Sean Payton. The Chargers get outcoached in many games and Brandon Staley likely loses his job at the end of the season.  The Raiders stink with Jimmy G (who likely gets hurt, again) and Josh Jacobs shows his displeasure.  If they can afford it, they fire McDaniels.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6
2. New York Giants: 10-7*
3. Washington Commanders: 9-8
4. Dallas Cowboys: 6-11
Hard to believe that we haven't had a repeat NFC East champion in almost 20 years.  I think that ends here.  The Eagles are too talented.  The Giants will make it close, however.  The Commanders, no longer having the worst owner in professional sports, play inspired football and almost make the postseason.  The Cowboys have a down year, due to not having much depth behind skill players Ceedee Lamb and Tony Pollard.

NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings: 13-4
2. Detroit Lions: 10-7*
3. Chicago Bears: 8-9
4. Green Bay Packers: 6-11
The Vikings with the best record in the NFL?  You heard it here first.  Kirk Cousins is now the best QB in his division (although Goff is close).  The Vikings will put together a 7 or 8 game win streak, and go 6-4 or 5-4 in their other 10 or 9 games.  The Lions don't win the division, but they do snag a wild-card playoff spot.  The Bears are slightly improved, but Fields can only do so much.  The Packers regress heavily after losing Aaron Rodgers, and Jordan Love leads the Packers' front office to quickly try to find the next heir apparent.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints: 10-7
2. Carolina Panthers: 7-10
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-11
4. Atlanta Falcons: 5-12
Derek Carr and the Saints claim the division title, thanks to Carr easily being the best QB in the division.  The Panthers surprise a bit, and Bryce Young does enough to win rookie of the year.  The Bucco's switch to Kyle Trask after Mayfield struggles.  The Falcons are just there.

NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
2. Los Angeles Rams: 11-6*
3. Seattle Seahawks: 8-9
4. Arizona Cardinals: 3-14
The Niners repeat as division champs, likely with multiple QB's starting games for them.  The Rams bounce back and claim the top wild card spot thanks to Matthew Stafford's resurgence.  My Seahawks do okay for most of the year, but they lose too many close games, due to either the defense allowing a late score or Geno Smith not being able to engineer a game-winning drive.  The Cardinals are expected to not be very good, and they won't be.

Here are the playoff seedings: 
AFC
1. Kansas City (12-5)
2. Buffalo (11-6)
3. Baltimore (10-7)
4. Indianapolis (9-8)
5. Denver (11-6)
6. Cincinnati (10-7)
7. Miami (10-7)

NFC
1. Minnesota (13-4)
2. San Francisco (12-5)
3. Philadelphia (11-6)
4. New Orleans (10-7)
5. Los Angeles Rams (11-6)
6. New York Giants (10-7)
7. Detroit (10-7)

Here's how I think the playoffs would go:
AFC Wild Card
(7) Dolphins at (2) Bills: Dolphins win
In a rematch of last year's wild card, the Dolphins get the upper hand this time.
(6) Bengals at (3) Ravens: Bengals win
Another rematch, this time with the Ravens as the higher seed, but it still doesn't matter.
(5) Broncos at (4) Colts: Broncos win
The Broncos' leadership (Payton/Wilson) has plenty of playoff experience, and it proves valuable.
NFC Wild Card
(7) Lions at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
I'd be rooting for the Lions like crazy, but it would just be too tough for them, just like it was for my Seahawks last season.
(6) Giants at (3) Eagles: Eagles win
Divisional showdown!  Eagles come out on top easily.
(5) Rams at (4) Saints: Rams win
The Rams prove too much for Carr and the Saints.

AFC Divisional Round:
(7) Dolphins at (1) Chiefs: Chiefs win
Tyreke Hill returns to Kansas City!  But he loses, due to the KC pressure being too much for Tua.
(6) Bengals at (5) Broncos: Bengals win
The Bengals have a more well-rounded roster in terms of talent and experience, which proves to be the difference.

NFC Divisional Round:
(5) Rams at (1) Vikings: Vikings win
The home field advantage proves too much for the Rams, who also cannot figure out a way to shutdown Justin Jefferson.
(3) Eagles at (2) 49ers: 49ers win
In a rematch of last year's NFC Championship game, the 49ers get the upper hand due to home field advantage, but also having a healthy quarterback this time.

Conference Championships:
(6) Bengals at (1) Chiefs: Bengals win
For the third year in a row, this is the AFC Championship game matchup.  And it goes back to Cincy.  The Bengals have an up and down season, but they catch fire at the end of the season, which is all that matters.
(2) 49ers at (1) Vikings: Vikings win
Whoever is under center for the 49ers is going to struggle under the lights and noise, and the Vikings win a close, hard-fought game.  

Super Bowl LVIII: Vikings vs. Bengals: Bengals win
The Bengals enter as very slight underdogs but emerge victorious.  In a matchup of two teams, each who has yet to win a Super Bowl, the Bengals come out on top.  It's an electrifying Super Bowl, filled with plenty of lead changes.  Joe Burrow wins Super Bowl MVP.  

There you have it.  The Cincinnati Bengals are my Super Bowl pick. Yikes!  Couldn't have done worse, lol.  However, my conference championship losers ended up being the Super Bowl, so there's that. Despite me thinking they'll have a down regular season, I think they'll do well late and in the playoffs.  They were so close last year to returning to the Super Bowl, and this year I think they do and win it.  Before I go, here are the coaches who I think get fired or leave by season's end: 

Bill Belichick, Patriots (retires) Didn't retire, but he's done anyway
Mike Vrabel, Titans Yep
Brandon Staley, Chargers Yep
Josh McDaniels, Raiders Yep
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers Nope
Other possibilities: Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals), Arthur Smith (Falcons) Yep, Matt LaFleur (Packers), Pete Carroll (Seahawks, retire?) Yep, Ron Rivera, Commanders (retire?) Yep

The firing I did not consider: Frank Reich (first year!)