The Mariners have already reached their peak, at least with this front office and ownership

Hey, this is Brian from Oct. 2023, the regular text is what I wrote towards the end of July.  It was right before the Mariners went on their amazing run in August.  Unfortunately, they followed it up with a stinker of a month in September.  I thought I'd go through and make any additional comments to what I previously said.  I'll save them for after the paragraph (if I have a comment), so I'm not interrupting too often.  

 I haven't done a mid-season review of the Mariners, but I think it's obvious why I haven't.  This year's team, the 2023 team, is painfully mediocre.  They capitalized last year on a lot of players finding success, and most of those same players have not been able to replicate last year's success, for the most part.  I believe last year was their peak, and they will not reach any higher heights with this front office and ownership.  I think this season is more of a regression to the mean.  I think the average amount of wins you will get with these kinds of teams is 80-90.  They're slightly better than average, on average.  This year, they're just average.

The Mariners finished with 88 wins, right where I said.  90 wins is about their ceiling.  They may get lucky and get 92, 93, 94 wins, but a division title is unlikely given the competition from Texas and Houston.

One reason why this team will never eclipse 90 or so wins or win the division or even get to the ALCS is because ownership has restricted spending.  Take a look at the last couple of big contracts they dished out: Robinson Cano and Robbie Ray.  It's safe to say that so far they have not been worth the money spent.  Cano did have a couple great years, but he was unable to help us get to the playoffs.  I think ownership and John Stanton are extremely hesitant to give Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander the green light on doling out a contract worth $100m or more, mainly because the last few haven't quite panned out.  They aren't the cheapest ownership group in sports, but they're cheaper than the average ownership group.  

Another reason why this team will never reach a higher peak is because hitting just cannot be developed in a consistent manner.  How many hitters have come through the Mariners' minor league system and had a successful career with them?  Not many.  Kyle Seager is basically the only one in the last 20 years.  Julio and Cal Raleigh can perhaps join that list, but both have had down years after great first full years in 2022.  For whatever reason, this team and organization can develop pitchers as well as anyone, but they cannot develop hitters.  The most baffling thing to me is how they preach "Control the Zone", yet the Mariners are consistently near the top of the league in strikeouts.  

Julio's massive August really boons his season, and I think it's safe to say he's a rare success story coming out of the minors.  Cal is borderline.  But Julio had so much upside it was hard for him not to pan out.  Also, the Mariners finished 2nd in the AL in strikeouts, behind only Minnesota.  But Minnesota was 4th in the AL in OPS, while the Mariners were barely above league average.  

The one thing I can fault the front office for most is the construction of the roster, namely the position players.  A team built on pitching doesn't need to be complemented by power hitters who strike out a lot.  They need consistent on-base guys that have speed, get around the bases, and play small ball to support the pitching.  It is a lot easier to play small ball and manufacture runs than it is to rely upon the home run ball.  Relying upon the home run ball is just asking for spurts of bad offense, which will ultimately result in losses.  Acquiring guys like Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez were not the smartest moves, because this team already had high strikeout guys in Julio, Kelenic, and Raleigh coming up through the system.  It's like having a football team with a great defense, but an offense that cannot run the ball nor has a short passing game.

One thing I am always quick to point the finger at during losses is coaching, namely manager Scott Servais.  But Servais is not an awful manager.  However, I do not believe he is the type of manager that can elevate a team with average talent.  He's great at motivating young guys, and would probably have a surprising amount of success on a team like Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Colorado.  And he'd probably do ok managing elite talent-level teams, like the Dodgers and Astros (which is true of most managers).  His in-game management and decisions leave a lot to be desired, such as his reliance on having a left/right advantage with the opposition.  Often, he will remove a better hitter for a worse hitter just to get that advantage.  He doesn't seem to have a good game feel, relying on colder bats in clutch moments than hot ones.  I don't think he's the biggest reason for this team's inability to do better than 2022, but he's certainly a contributing factor.  I think Servais, once he leaves the Mariners, will likely be mostly remembered for his decision to put in Robbie Ray against Yordan Alvarez in Game 1 of the ALDS.  If he goes with Swanson or someone else, the Mariners likely win the game, and who knows how that series turns out.    

I will always root for the Mariners, but it is extremely disheartening being as confident as I am that this team will never eclipse 2022 with its current front office, management, and likely, ownership.  In fact, I am willing to bet on it.  If the Mariners win the World Series under Dipoto/Hollander/Servais, I will get a tattoo of the Mariners logo and the words "____ World Series Champions", with the year they won it at the beginning.  I don't like the idea of permanently scarring my body with tattoos, but that just shows how confident I am that this team will not do any better than last season.  I could say I'd get a tattoo if they reach the ALCS or the World Series, but a tattoo saying "2024 ALCS representative" sounds pretty lame to me.  If they get to the ALCS or World Series under this regime, I will spend the combination of wins and team batting average on Mariners merchandise.  So if they win 95 games and have a team batting average of .250, I will buy $345 dollars worth of Mariners merchandise.

I'm sticking to this.  So long as Jerry, Justin, and Scott are with the Mariners, if the Mariners win a World Series, I will get that tattoo.  And I'll stand by what I said about spending money on merch, too.  I am that confident that this team will not do better than a borderline wild card/ALDS loser.  Last year, 2022, was their peak.

I hope I am wrong about all of this and the team surprises me.  But I have watched enough baseball, specifically Mariners baseball, to know that this team is still shackled by its ownership, front office, management, and roster construction.  They will have plenty of great moments and may once again sneak into the playoffs, but I will be beyond shocked if this team plays like one of the league's absolute best for any significant amount of time under this regime.  In my opinion, there are too many things that would need to change about this team and organization in order to consistently become one of MLB's best.  Simply firing Servais wouldn't do it.  Acquiring a contact bat: same thing.  But I can still enjoy their good moments when they come, despite the fact that I will be wishing they were more frequent.

Update, 2024: Well, the Mariners fired Servais, so I'm taking the tattoo offer off the table.  I'll still spend money on the Mariners if they at least make the ALCS under Dipoto.  But I knew Servais wasn't the guy to take us to the World Series.  But perhaps Wilson or someone else is.