Survivor 45 Preview and Predictions

 Survivor 45 is just a few days away, so with that, I have to make my predictions for the season.  Just like in past seasons, I'm going to go through each cast member and pick a short range (range of 6 spots, so 14-9, 10-5, etc.). Last season, I placed 8/18 correct, which was two better than the previous season.  I hope to improve yet again; let's try to get at least half!  As always, I'll go in alphabetical order by first name, and I'll give some comparables to each Survivor, both new and old era.  Finally, I wanted to add this time that what I use to base these opinions and predictions on are just their answers to their questionnaire and what Survivor content creators have said about them so far.  I don't even watch their video interviews.  So with that, let's get started.

Austin Li Coon, 26, Grad Student from Chicago, IL
Comparables: Owen Knight, Malcolm Freberg
A lot of people are high on Austin, and while I understand where they're coming from, I don't particularly agree.  I'd be shocked if he didn't make the merge, but I'll be almost as surprised if he wins.  He'll likely be a mid-merge boot or perhaps even a losing finalist like Owen.  He does, after all, see himself like Owen.  I'm just not envisioning a winning game from him.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 2nd.  So close!  I really felt like Jake deserved more votes, but it is what it is.

Brandon "Brando" Meyer, Software Developer from Seattle, WA
Comparables: Hai Giang, Yul Kwon
An Asian in the tech field, seems fairly soft-spoken, so I can't say I see him winning, although Yul did.  But that was a very different era.  I could see Brando as someone people don't want to target, but I can't see him grabbing the title of sole Survivor.  He even could be an early boot if he doesn't fit in well with his tribe, which is a real possibility.  I'll try to split the difference.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
CORRECT, 14th.  But barely.  He might've only gotten as far as he did because his tribe kept winning immunity.

Brandon Donlon, Content Creator from Sicklerville, NJ
Comparables: Jacob Derwin, Zeke Smith
Brandon's one of those types of guys that we all know someone like in real life, it seems.  I think he's got surprising amount of variance to his game, meaning I feel he could be an early boot, like a Jacob Derwin or Daniel Strunk.  His personality will have to shine through to people, and I'm worried it won't.  But since he was featured so much in the promo for this season, I have to lean more towards him lasting far.  Maybe he's our loser at firemaking?
Predicted finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 17th. He was an early boot after all.  Couldn't handle the game physically.

Bruce Perrault, 47, Insurance Agent from Warwick, RI
Comparables: Rocksroy Bailey, Bruce Perrault
Hey, he's our first returning player of the new era, who better to compare him to than himself?  Anyway, I again don't see Bruce doing particularly well, although I will admit I think he has a better shot with this cast than 44's.  If Bruce is to win, he'd have to pull off a game like Mike Gabler's.  Make one move, go underwater, and then emerge at the end.  But I can't see it happening.  Bruce will get further than he did on 44 (how could he not?), but not much further.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th
CORRECT, 8th.  Although barely.  But in my defense, he'd have gone sooner without those immunity wins.

Dee Valladares, 26, Entrepeneur from Miami, FL
Comparables: Tori Meehan, Victoria Baamonde
If any woman is going to be a villainess this season, it's likely Dee.  She wants to play like Jesse and Tony, and I feel like there is going to be a vote where she gets found out and left out.  I like her chances of making the merge(atory), but I don't like her chances of getting much further.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
WRONG, 1st.  Whoops!  Also, she was not really a villainess.

Drew Basile, 23, Grad Student from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Ryan Ulrich, Zach Wurternberger
Nerdy, skinny white guy, we've never had that on Survivor!  We've only had one winner of this archetype in Cochran, and I don't think that's changing anytime soon.  Drew has a good enough head on his shoulders that I think and hope he uses enough to survive the first vote or two, but I can't see him forming too many or too close of bonds out there.  Sorry, Drew.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th
WRONG, 6th.  I did not see him fitting in with a tight alliance like the Reba 4.  But I knew he wasn't going to win.

Emily Flippen, 28, Investment Analyst from Laurel, MD
Comparables: Aubry Bracco, Frannie Marin
Scratch that about Dee, if any woman is going to be a villainess it's going to be Emily.  She compares herself to Chaos Kass, and describes herself as off-putting.  When the cast first got leaked, I really wanted to make Emily my winner pick, but I can't see us having an off-putting winner.  In fact, due to the string of women (especially young) being booted early in recent seasons, I think I have to pick her going early as well.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
WRONG, 7th.  Although you gotta say, Kaleb saved her from the fate I had predicted for her.

Hannah Rose, 33, Therapist from Baltimore City, MD
Comparables: Kelley Wentworth, Lindsey Cascaddan
I can't say I see Hannah doing too well.  She's 33, so she's actually older than over half the cast, although she is the perfect age for a winner.  But she just comes off to me kinda weird.  Like a less likable Carolyn.  I also think Hannah is between a rock and a hard place.  If she plays too well, she'll be taken out for being a threat.  If she doesn't play well enough, she'll just be a losing finalist.  That's if she makes the merge, which I'm gonna say she probably won't.
Predicted finish: 16th-11th
WRONG, 18th.  I did not see her essentially quitting.  Dang.  At least I correctly predicted her likely not making the merge.

Jake O'Kane, 26, Attorney from Boston, MA
Comparables: Kane Fritzler, Adam Klein
I'm going on a limb, sort of.  I think Jake will do very well.  If he doesn't win, he'll be like a Jesse or Omar and be a huge threat to win.  I think he'll be able to downplay his threat level, at least until the end.  I really like how much he was featured in the promo.  An early boot, he should not be.
Predicted finish: 5th-1st
CORRECT, 3rd.  He didn't exactly do "very well", he was more the Owen of the season that I thought Austin would be.  Still, got his placement correct.

Janani "J.Maya" Krishnan Jha, 24, Singer from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: Swati Goel, Sara Wilson
How long before she annoys her tribe with her singing?  For whatever reason, Indian women (Swati, Karishma) have not done particularly well on Survivor, and I can't see J.Maya doing much better.  There's the culture difference and just the egotism solo singers tend to have.  I hate to say it, but I don't envision a long run in this game for her.  In fact, it could be extremely short.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 13th.  Barely.  But I'd argue she'd have been more in the middle if her tribe went to a pre-merge tribal before the swap.

Julie Alley, 49, Estate Attorney from Brentwood, TN
Comparables: Lindsay Carmine, Heather Aldrete
Another older blonde lady.  But I don't think we should write this one off so fast.  I like how she works with both estates and in the legal field, meaning she is very good at dealing with people.  If she can downplay her age and not cost her tribe in challenges, she has a legitimate shot.  Well, to at least be a runner-up.  Denise from Philippines is still the oldest female winner at 41.  
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
CORRECT, 5th.  She did well at downplaying her threat level for a while, but it did catch up to her.  She did just as well as I thought she would, honestly.

Kaleb Gebrewold, 29, Software Salesman from Vancouver, BC
Comparables: Jeremy Collins, Bill Posley
Kaleb seems to be someone who might play at least a slightly villainous game, and I'm here for it.  So with that, I think he'll do somewhere in between Jeremy's 2nd chance game and Bill's game.  I only chose Bill for the hair.  Anyway, I think he might have an epic elimination at a tribal council and be a huge stamp on someone's resume.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 11th.  So close!  He should've made it, damnit!

Katurah Topps, 35, Civil Rights Attorney from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Drea Wheeler, Nneka Ejere
Katurah to me is like if you took some of Drea's athleticism and gave her more likability.  Or if you made Nneka better at challenges.  Either way, I think Katurah's in it for the long haul.  I think she'll blend in but not be seen as a major threat.  But she may be seen as a threat late, or she may be beaten by someone late who played a better game.  Hard to say.  But I'd be very surprised if she flamed out early.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
CORRECT, 4th.  She kinda was what I described.  She was not seen as a major threat.

Kellie Nalbandian, 30, Critical Care Nurse from New York, NY
Comparables: Ellie Scott, Sydney Segal
A lot of people are high on Kellie, and I don't blame them.  But people have been oh so wrong before.  I remember hearing Ellie was going to be a major player, and she became the first merge boot.  Same goes for Sydney.  I think the same fate may be in store for Kellie.  I'll lean more towards the side of her at least making the merge, but I get this feeling a group is going to form to take her out.  A Parvati 2.0, we can never have.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
CORRECT, 10th.  Right in the middle!  Although, it was looking like she'd get further until her blindside.  She wasn't a Parvati, more of a Sophie.

Kendra McQuarrie, 31, Bartender from Steamboat Springs, CO
Comparables: Tiffany Seely, Alison Raybould
I have a bad feeling about Kendra.  I don't think people will like her as much as she thinks they will.  She compares herself to Carolyn, but I'm guessing people will not find her quirks as endearing as they found Carolyn's.  She could be a very early boot, or someone people get tired of during the merge portion of the game.  I'm leaning toward the former, but I'll go somewhere in the middle.
Predicted Finish: 14th-9th
CORRECT, 9th.  Although barely, but hey, it still counts.

Nicholas "Sifu" Alsup, 30, Gym Owner from O'Fallon, IL
Comparables: Ryan Medrano, Jonathan Young
We have this season's token challenge beast.  Historically, both recent and distant past, these types of players haven't done particularly well on the show.  Their lack of a social game ends up costing them.  I do think Sifu will have a better social game than Ryan or Jonathan.  I mean, how could you not?  But I don't think it'll match his physical game.  He'll certainly be kept around for the pre-merge, but after that, it's anyone's guess.
Predicted Finish: 11th-6th
WRONG, 12th. So close again!  

Sabiyah Broderick, 28, Truck Driver from Jacksonville, NC
Comparables: Cirie Fields, Claire Rafson
I struggled with the comparables on this one, clearly.  I ended up using who she compared herself to in Cirie.  Anyway, Sabiyah's a hard one to place.  She grew up with four brothers, served in the Marine Corps, and is now a truck driver.  She's probably the toughest person that'll be out there, man or woman.  I like her to get past the merge, as I highly doubt she'll be a liability in challenges, but after that, it's anyone's guess.  I'll go on a limb and say people will like her and her story and toughness will resonate with people.  I can't see people thinking she's a huge strategic threat.  But I can see people liking her story at the end.
Predicted Finish: 5th-1st
WRONG, 16th.  This one hurts...

Sean Edwards, 35, School Principal from Provo-Orem, UT
Comparables: Romeo Escobar, Gio Bustamante
Sean is one of those very high-variance players like Romeo or Gio.  Romeo got good control of his starting tribe, and he laid low and was able to get all the way to the end.  Gio thought he had control but did not and it cost him.  I think Sean will more likely suffer a fate similar to Gio's, although if he was a losing finalist, that wouldn't surprise me, either.  If Sean is on the outs early, he'll be in huge trouble.  
Predicted Finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 15th.  And right in the middle, too!

With that, let's make a boot order based on those placements!

18th: J.Maya
17th: Sean
16th: Emily
15th: Hannah
14th: Drew
13th: Kendra
12th: Brando
11th: Kellie
10th: Bruce
9th: Dee
8th: Sifu
7th: Kaleb
6th: Brandon
5th: Austin
4th: Katurah
3rd: Julie
2nd: Jake
1st: Sabiyah

Going with another African queen in Sabiyah!  She'll be my third black female as my winner pick in the new era, after Maryanne (42) and Lauren (44).  My winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, and 5th.  That's an average placement of 4.75, not too shabby.  I just love her story, how she's blue collar, and her background in the Marines.  My next closest winner pick was Jake, but I feel like he won't get enough votes at the end against certain people.  Granted, I have yet to see any of them play, but just a gut feeling.  

As for actual winners, my preseason placement for them has been 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), 18th (Gabler), and 3rd (Yam-Yam).  Hmmm, 3rd twice, that could be a good sign for Julie.  

I will update as this season goes along as each person gets voted out.  Again, let's try to do better than 8/18 last season!

TOTAL: 9/18.  Hey, I did better than 8/18!  Even small wins are wins!  However, my winner pick in Sabiyah flamed out so early, but that's why your winner pick should come from a strong tribe, and not one of the worst in Survivor history.  I do wonder how she would've done if she was on Belo or Reba.  Oh well.