What the Seahawks should do at the QB Position

The Seahawks are coming to a crossroads regarding their starting quarterback, Geno Smith.  He's about to enter the final year of his contract, and the team is going to have to make a tough decision regarding his future.  They have to, first and foremost, look out for the team's best interests.  I'm going to go over the possible scenarios and rank them from 1 to 5, with 1 being the best and 5 being the worst.

1. The Seahawks don't extend Geno, but find a different option to learn under him and possibly take over for him.  
This is what I hope the Hawks will do.  First off, as the team's starting quarterback and leader, he shouldn't hold out if they decide not to extend him.  Even if he decides to hold out, the Hawks should try to find someone out there who can take over, worst-case scenario.  They have Sam Howell, but they need to bring someone else in to compete with Howell, at least for the backup spot.  It could be through the draft, or it could be a QB in free agency like Justin Fields or Daniel Jones.  Clearly, it would depend on who they hire to be the new offensive coordinator, and who that OC likes.

2. The Hawks pull a Pittsburgh Steelers and bring in two new QB's
Last offseason, the Steelers jettisoned both Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph and got Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.  Imagine if the Hawks did something like that.  Who knows who the two QBs would be, but it would certainly inspire hope that the Hawks are trying to find the next franchise QB. 

3. The Seahawks trade Geno Smith and have a QB competition with Howell and another QB brought in.
We have likely seen Geno's ceiling.  He's not getting any younger, and his TD/INT ratio took a huge hit in 2024.  Perhaps Macdonald and the new OC will want to start with someone new and build them up.  Sure, there's Sam Howell, but he would need some competition for the starting job after trading Geno.  It could be another trade like the Hawks did with Russell Wilson, where they got Drew Lock in return, among other players and picks.  Possible teams the Hawks could look to trade Geno to: Raiders, Browns, Titans, or Giants.

4. The Seahawks stay with the same two QB's, possibly extending Geno
This wouldn't inspire much confidence in wanting to improve at the QB position.  Could Geno win with a Super Bowl roster like the Hawks had in 2013-2014?  Sure.  But so could a lot of QBs.  Also, extending him ties up our cap space a lot to our QB position.  When you do that, unless you have a worldly talent like Mahomes, Allen, or Jackson, you're not winning too much.  I mostly want some kind of change.  But not any kind of change, as you'll see below.

5. The Hawks draft a QB at #18, regardless of who is currently on the roster
After Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward, there's a bit of a drop-off, so I'd be surprised if the #18 pick was a QB, especially if Geno is still here.  The next best options are Quinn Ewers and Jalen Milroe.  The Seahawks haven't taken a QB in the first round since 1993 with Rick Mirer.  I don't think that will change after the 2025 draft.  

It'll be interesting to see what they do this off-season.  I'll try to update here once it seems settled.  My dad, for one, is tired of Geno Smith as the Seahawks quarterback.  I can't say I blame him too much.  Sure, Geno can help the Hawks to winning seasons, but it does not appear he will be able to lead them to a Super Bowl.  It's time to start rebuilding at the position so the Hawks can hopefully, someday, have another star QB.

Wow, color me surprised.  They went with option #2 (bolded, above).  I definitely am on board with the decisions made.  Sam Darnold had a much better 2024 than Geno and is younger.  We also brought back Drew Lock, who not only is familiar with the Hawks, but he's familiar with Sam Darnold.  Who knew?  And not only that, but we drafted an electric fast-moving QB in Jalen Milroe.  I'm excited to see him in the pre-season, for sure.  I am not upset at all about moving on from Geno--we saw his ceiling.  Teams had started to adjust to him, and I guarantee he will not have as good of a season with the Raiders as he did in 2022 with us.  He's a bridge QB for the Raiders at best, just like he was with us.

What's Wrong with the Seahawks?

The Seahawks are 4-5, which isn't too bad, but when you consider they started 3-0 and have lost 5 of 6, and four straight at home, you realize there are some problems with the team.  Clearly, they were buoyed by their easy start, which involved facing: A rookie QB in his first game, a rebuilding Patriots team they barely beat, and a Dolphins team on their 3rd string QB.  Most competent teams would go 3-0 in that stretch, just as the Seahawks did.  But when they finally started facing teams built to win now, they started losing.  They even lost to a Giants team at home that still only has one other win, over the struggling Browns.

So, what's the issue?  On offense, it's pretty clear the offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL.  Geno Smith has one of the highest pressure rates and total number of pressures in the NFL, and it's not because he's always holding onto the ball too long, although I will admit he does that on occasion.  But I think the bigger issue is not being able to establish a running game.  To establish a running game, you need four things: A good running back, an offensive line that can create holes, a run-blocking scheme and coaching that will allow this to happen, and an offensive coordinator who will not abandon the run too quickly.  The Seahawks have the first one.  But they are largely missing the other three.  The offensive line has been unable to open holes in the A or B gaps.  Most of Kenneth Walker's big runs have been outside the tackles, where he has used his speed to get around the edge.  The run-blocking scheme also seems to be largely not there.  The Seahawks recently faced a 4th and 1 in Overtime against the Rams and could not get one yard.  And lastly, I'm not sure Ryan Grubb is the right fit for an offense that needs to be balanced in today's NFL.  He does seem to abandon the run after it doesn't work in game.

But that's just the offense.  The defense is actually not performing too poorly.  They've certainly shown to be dominant at times.  But they are inconsistent and lacking a bit of discipline.  I think, with time, they can develop into a dominant unit more consistently.  Perhaps not "Legion of Boom" dominant, but maybe close to it.  The pass rush could be improved, but the run defense seems better.  The pass defense is inconsistent, seemingly dependent on the aerial attack they face.  The defense has some above-average players in Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, and Ernest Jones, but that's about it.  They could use a bit more talent.

I must also talk about starting quarterback Geno Smith.  Geno has a lot of people calling him to be benched.  I can see where they're coming from, but our other option is Sam Howell, who led the league in interceptions last season.  Sure, a change at quarterback can spark an offense, but it can also cause division.  Geno has a lot of close friends on the team, namely receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, and his benching would certainly upset them, especially if it's somewhat unwarranted.  We'd also be asking a second-year quarterback to be successful when the Seahawks, as I stated above, have one of the worst pressure rates allowed in the NFL.  It's very likely the people who are calling for Geno to be benched would then be calling for him to come back.  I do not believe Geno will be our quarterback for too much longer, as his age will likely lead to us looking for a younger option soon.  Just not this season.

Safe to say, coach Mike Macdonald has his work cut out for him.  I hate that I'm hearing people calling him to be fired already.  Like, come on, people.  This was not a team ready to make a Super Bowl run when he took over.  Pete was let go because there were struggles with the team that, unfortunately, still exist today.  Therefore, I think the issues with this team are largely due to the construction of the roster by General Manager John Schneider.  I could do an entirely separate post about him, but the point I want to make here is that he's likely been overvalued as a GM and should, therefore, be held accountable for the team's struggles.   He's not been a good GM with trades, he's only had two or three good drafts out of 14, and he overvalues some positions (wide receiver) while undervaluing others (interior OL).  

If the Seahawks really want to make a run at a Super Bowl in a few years, two things need to happen.  One, they need to find the next franchise quarterback.  Geno is a good holdover quarterback, but he will likely start declining soon (if he hasn't already), and the Hawks will need to find a younger option.  The second thing the Hawks will need to do is either replace John Schneider, or he has to change his philosophy on roster construction.  I don't see the latter happening, as people that high on teams don't tend to be malleable and are set in their ways.  Yes, he put together a team that won us a Super Bowl in 2014.  However, the NFL has changed in the last ten years, and I think he's failed to realize this.  I still like Schneider as a team-builder more than Jerry Dipoto on the Mariners, but it's starting to get close.  Like Dipoto, I feel a championship might not be possible under his reign.  

The thing Seahawks fans most have to understand is this is a team in transition.  We aren't going to make a Super Bowl run this year or even next.  Some legitimate holes on this team still need to be filled, and Macdonald still has to install his system and way of doing things.  This team still feels like it has remnants of Carroll's philosophy, so that needs to change.  Nothing against Carroll, but he's not the coach anymore.  This is Macdonald's team now, whether fans like it or not.  Let's all be patient.

Condensed 2024 NFL Predictions!

 I will, at the very least, keep up my tradition of predicting the NFL season, even though I'm always wrong about many things.  But hey, it's fun.  I'm going to get straight to it, the predicted records, the playoff predictions, and then, a short bit about the Seahawks, my favorite team.  A heads up, I'm going to try to predict a few surprises, so some of these records may surprise you.  After all, we always see several surprisingly good and bad teams each season.

* = Wild Card

AFC EAST
1. Miami Dolphins 11-6
2. Buffalo Bills 10-7*
3. New England Patriots 8-9
4. New York Jets 6-11
Comment: The Dolphins win a mediocre at best division as the Bills have a few setbacks.  The Patriots and Drake Maye surprise some people.  Aaron Rodgers either struggles or gets hurt and the Jets are, well, the Jets.

AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati Bengals 12-5
2. Baltimore Ravens 11-6*
3. Cleveland Browns 8-9
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-10
Comment: The Bengals are back on top and Burrow plays all season.  The Ravens regress slightly, most notably on defense after losing Mike Macdonald.  The Browns are okay, but Watson proves to not stay healthy or consistent.  The Steelers regress without a solid QB as both Wilson and Fields struggle against the tough defenses of the AFC North.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts 11-6
2. Houston Texans 10-7*
3. Tennessee Titans 9-8
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-11
Comment: Yep, you heard it here.  The Colts surge with a healthy Anthony Richardson.  The Texans are still decent, but slightly lose their grasp on the division.  The Titans surprise people with their underrated D and Will Levis competing his butt off.  The Jaguars again struggle to find consistency.

AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs 10-7
2. Los Angeles Chargers 9-8
3. Denver Broncos 7-10
4. Las Vegas Raiders 4-13
Comment: The Chiefs win the worst division in the AFC despite a bit of a Super Bowl hangover.  The Chargers show flashes under new coach Jim Harbaugh, but look like they'll take a year to make a big stride.  The Broncos are competitive, and Bo Nix establishes himself as the starter.  The Raiders struggle mightily, even under Minshew.

NFC EAST
1. Dallas Cowboys 10-7
2. Philadelphia Eagles 8-9
3. Washington Commanders 8-9
4. New York Giants 7-10
Comment: In a very mediocre division, Dallas remains on top.  The Eagles struggle and continue their slide from last season.  The Commanders show some flashes but it's not enough.  The Giants aren't terrible, but are missing a star QB.

NFC NORTH
1. Detroit Lions 12-5
2. Chicago Bears 9-8*
3. Green Bay Packers 7-10
4. Minnesota Vikings 5-12
Comment: The Lions win the division two years in a row thanks to the best roster in the division.  The Bears surprise people and Caleb Williams looks like the real deal.  Jordan Love shows a bit that last year was a bit of an abberration.  The Vikings struggle without JJ McCarthy and having to go with Darnold.

NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons 10-7
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-10
3. New Orleans Saints 6-11
4. Carolina Panthers 6-11
Comment: The Falcons win a very winnable division thanks to the addition of Cousins.  The Bucs struggle in year 2 under Mayfield.  The Saints and Panthers have different stories: The Saints suffer massive disappointment while the Panthers remain optimistic under new head coach Dave Canales.

NFC WEST
1. San Francisco 49ers 13-4
2. Seattle Seahawks 10-7*
3. Los Angeles Rams 10-7*
4. Arizona Cardinals 6-11
Comment: The 49ers remain very tough and win a formidable division.  My Seahawks surprise people and win 10 games, largely thanks to an improved defense.  The Rams also win ten games, but more on the back of their offense.  The Cardinals aren't awful, but struggle to beat any somewhat decent teams.

Before I get to the playoffs, here are the coaches in this scenario I'd expect to get fired:
Robert Saleh, Jets
Doug Pederson, Jaguars
Antonio Pierce, Raiders
Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers
Dennis Allen, Saints

With Mike Tomlin as an outside possibility (possibly steps down instead of getting fired).  

Now onto the NFL Playoffs!  Who is my prediction for Super Bowl LIX?

AFC WILD CARD
(7) Texans at (2) Dolphins: Dolphins win
(6) Bills at (3) Colts: Bills win
(5) Ravens at (4) Chiefs: Chiefs win

NFC WILD CARD
(7) Bears at (2) Lions: Lions win
(6) Rams at (3) Cowboys: Rams win
(5) Seahawks at (4) Falcons: Seahawks win

AFC DIVISIONAL
(6) Bills at (1) Bengals: Bengals win
(4) Chiefs at (2) Dolphins: Chiefs win

NFC DIVISIONAL
(6) Rams at (1) 49ers: 49ers win
(5) Seahawks at (2) Lions: Lions win

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC: Chiefs at Bengals: Bengals
NFC: Lions at 49ers: 49ers

SUPER BOWL LIX
Bengals vs 49ers: 49ers win, 23-17

Yup, I hate to admit it, but the 49ers finally win another Super Bowl.  Turns out, third time is the charm for Kyle Shanahan, at least as a head coach.  

And now, my Seahawks.  I don't want to predict each game, because I'll be wrong about some wins and I'll be wrong about some losses.  I'll just go over three aspects of the team:

Offense: Slow start, but shows more explosiveness than last season.  There's not a ton of consistency with the offense.  Some games they may score 30+, others less than 20.  Geno has a bit of a bounce back season.  The lack of quality tight end depth hurts.  The run game could still be improved and show more consistency, as K9 breaks a few home run type runs but struggles to gain consistent yardage.

Defense: The defense is improved without the secondary of Diggs and Adams dragging them down.  The loss of Wagner's leadership is felt, but a few young players emerge, such as Derick Hall and of course, Byron Murphy.  The D-Line proves to be a Top 10 D-Line in the NFL.  The linebackers have their ups and downs, while the secondary is mostly decent.  

Coaching: I expect the growing pains that usually come with a rookie head coach/new coaching staff, but I do expect a new energy in this team.  I think they'll be in the middle of the league in terms of penalties (perhaps still bottom half) but I expect the Time of Possession to improve, largely due to the defense getting off the field, rather than the offense sustaining drives.  All in all, I expect a solid first season with a bright future in front of us.

Well, that does it for my 2024 NFL Predictions.  I'll take the Hawks having a good first year under Mike Macdonald, even if it means a 49ers Super Bowl... I guess.  But it should be a fun season.  Go Hawks!