Thursday, May 9, 2019

Over/Under Wins for Each NFL Team

The NFL on Fox posted the Over/Under on wins for each NFL team, according to Odd Shark.  I'm going to predict whether each team will get more wins, fewer, or the same.  It'll be fun to come back after the season to see how well I did predicting these teams.  If I get more right than wrong, I did better than Odd Shark.  So, listed is the amount of wins each team was predicted to get in 2019, and I will give my best reasoning why I think it's wrong (or right in some cases).

Arizona Cardinals: 5.5 wins
Prediction: More
New head coaches with new QB's tend to do better than people expect because people don't have game tape or a game plan for them.  Expect Murray to have a modicum of success.  I'll say 6 or 7 wins.

Atlanta Falcons: 9 wins
Prediction: Less
Hard to say.  The Falcons certainly have talent, but they don't always play to their ability or they suffer from injuries.  I almost said the same, but they just haven't been the same since their SB loss.  I'll say less.  8 wins.

Baltimore Ravens: 8 wins
Prediction: Less
Lamar Jackson is taking a slight step back in his sophomore season.  They also lost Weddle, Suggs, and Moseley.  None of those guys are easy to replace.  I'll say a down season for the black birds.  7 wins

Buffalo Bills: 6.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I predict Josh Allen will be among the three sophomore QB's (Jackson and Rosen the others) who doesn't really take a step forward in year 2.  He's gonna find out it's extremely tough to win in Buffalo. 4 or 5 wins.

Carolina Panthers: 8 wins
Prediction: More
I once watched a Jon Bois video (If you haven't heard of him, look him up on YouTube, he's AMAZING) about the parity of NFL teams.  It ranked how consistent teams are year to year with their win totals.  Carolina was dead last.  Meaning, they go from a bad season to a good season to a bad season, etc.  They had a fairly down year last year so I expect better things this year.  9 wins.

Chicago Bears: 9.5 wins
Prediction: Less
Teams are going to figure out Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky.  They're still a decent team, but won't live up to last year's run.  8 or 9 wins.

Cincinnati Bengals: 6 wins
Prediction: Same
I honestly don't know.  I haven't watched the majority of a Bengals game in so long.  They could be awful, but I won't say that.  6 wins is good.

Cleveland Browns: 9 wins
Prediction: Less
To go from a winless season to just two years later predicted to have the most wins in your division?  That's some turnaround.  Too bad for the Browns it won't be THAT fast of a turnaround.  They'll be improved and be more fun to watch, but will be too inconsistent and may have too many big ego's (at least on offense).  8 wins.

Dallas Cowboys: 8.5 wins
Prediction: More
Dallas is one of those fairly inconsistent teams.  They find it hard to string together back-to-back playoff seasons.  They'll do it this year.  They've got the best young core of players in the NFL.  10 wins or so.

Denver Broncos: 7 wins
Prediction: More
Odds are either the Chiefs or Chargers take a step back this year (or both).  When that happens, the teams behind them generally do better, it's just how it works in the NFL.  I see the Broncos as around a .500 team, so 8 wins.

Detroit Lions: 7 wins
Prediction: Less
They unfortunately play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, the young and up-and-coming Bears, and the well-constructed Vikings.  Someone's gotta lose a bunch of games.  5 or 6 wins

Green Bay Packers: 9.5 wins
Prediction: Less
A lot of people on the post which inspired this said the Packers had too many predicted wins.  I'd have to agree.  First year head coach and too many new faces.  Will take a year to adjust.  7 or 8 wins.

Houston Texans: 8.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I like Deshaun Watson, but I don't like the Texans as an organization.  Offense will struggle without a ton of help.  7 or 8 wins

Indianapolis Colts: 9.5 wins
Prediction: More
I think Indy will prove they're in it for the long haul.  They won't be quite as dominant as some of those Peyton Manning teams from the 2000s but still will be quite good.  10-12 wins

Jacksonville Jaguars: 8 wins
Prediction: Less
Nick Foles has only had success in his career in Philly under a keen offensive mind.  There's no way him alone can take the Jaguars back to a winning record... right?  7 wins, give or take.

Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 wins
Prediction: Less
Maybe Patrick Mahomes is the next elite quarterback.  Hard to say.  But the Chiefs more than likely won't have Tyreke Hill due to his off the field issues.  They don't have a running back with Kareem Hunt's talent.  Moreover, their defense went through a TON of turnover.  They'll still be good, but not THAT good.  9 or 10 wins.

Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 wins
Prediction: More
This was one of the toughest calls for me.  I could see it going either way.  On one hand, the Chargers aren't an organization known for sustaining success.  But on the other hand, they have one of the best young rosters in the NFL.  I'll say more, but I'm not entirely sure.  10 wins.

Los Angeles Rams: 10.5 wins
Prediction: Less
You heard it here first, I am predicting a Super Bowl hangover for these guys.  One, the division as a whole will be tougher, and two, they're playing another first place schedule.  Can't see them being awful, but they take a step back.  I hate calling injuries... but they might suffer a significant one.  8 wins.

Miami Dolphins: 5 wins
Prediction: More
Just when you think the "Fins" are gonna have a "tank" year, they go out and trade for Josh Rosen.  They still have a few talented youngsters.  I can see them competing yet again to get near .500.  6 or 7 wins

Minnesota Vikings: 9 wins
Prediction: Same
I'm sure Kirk Cousins is pretty peeved with all the talk of him not living up to his contract.  But I think he'll settle in, now that he's in a system for a 2nd year.  I don't see the Vikings quite doing as well as 2017, but they should be just as good or better than last year.  I'll say same, maybe one win more.

New England Patriots: 11 wins
Prediction: More
Ugh, these guys again.  At what point does winning become boring?  I think the Dolphins will still be decent and I see the Jets improving, but they still won't match up to these Goliaths.  12 or 13 wins.

New Orleans Saints: 10.5 wins
Prediction: Less
If I had to bet real money on one of these predictions, it would be this one.  They're coming off back-to-back heartwrenching playoff losses.  They lost quite a few players, notably their starting center Max Unger.  And their division is going to be TOUGH to win in, with improvements expected from all.  7 to 9 wins.

New York Giants: 6 wins
Prediction: Less
I honestly feel bad for Giants fans.  Their GM Dave Gettleman just makes moves that don't make sense.  They finally draft a QB of the future at #6 overall, and he could've been had in the second round.  He'll be another Blake Bortles or Christian Ponder.  And they're not a very complete team, still.  5 wins.

New York Jets: 7 wins
Prediction: More
Sam Darnold SHOULD take a big step forward in year 2.  Two years ago Goff came onto the scene.  Last year it was Mahomes and Trubisky.  Who will it be this year?  Best bet is Darnold.  They also added a bunch of talent, a lot on defense.  They'll be a borderline wild card.  8 or 9 wins.

Oakland Raiders: 6.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I'm starting to feel this "experiment" with Jon Gruden as coach and Mike Mayock as GM won't turn out well.  Too much flash, not enough sizzle.  Gruden's gonna realized Derek Carr may not be THE guy after all.  5 or 6 wins.

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I could be wrong but I'm in the minority thinking the Cowboys will win the division and not the Eagles.  I'm fearing Carson Wentz may be one of those guys that can just never stay fully healthy.  They'll be good because the talent's there, but not good enough.  8 or 9 wins.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 wins
Prediction: More
If there's one division I think is overrated, it's the AFC North.  And not because of the Steelers (although they missed the playoffs last year).  As I said earlier, I expect the Ravens to have a down year and the Browns won't be as good as they look on paper.  As for the Steelers, they won't miss the playoffs two years in a row, and without the distraction of Antonio Brown they just play hard, distraction-free football.

San Francisco 49ers: 8 wins
Prediction: Less
This could go either way.  Depends on the luck they have.  Last year they were not lucky (as I predicted), even though most  predicted them to succeed.  So as long as Garropolo stays healthy, they should be decent.  But the problem is I don't think Garropolo is that great of a QB; he still hasn't proven much.  7 wins.

Seattle Seahawks: 8.5 wins
Prediction: More
This could be a long one.  I think this year's team has the best all around depth in years.  Sure, we lost Baldwin and Clark and Thomas, but we've filled in a ton of holes with draft picks (Metcalf, Collier, Blair) and free agents (Iupati, Ansah, Taylor, Myers).  Depending on how the rest of the division does, the Hawks could very well win it (even though a lot are predicting us to battle Arizona for 3rd!).  The Hawks have a great blend of young players with veteran presences.  9 to 11 wins. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I debated on this one.  When it came down to it, I don't think the Bruce Arians experiment will work.  I think Jameis is a lost cause and they play in a tough division.  I hate to say it, but I think the next team to have 2 or fewer wins will be the Buccaneers.  Although I don't necessarily think it will be next season.  4-6 wins.

Tennessee Titans: 8.5 wins
Prediction: Less
They're a tough team that's not easy to beat.  However, they just don't have that player that can take over a game, or that player that can make a few clutch plays late.  I'm mainly referring to their QB, but other players as well.  They won't roll over, but they won't go on any winning streaks, either.  7 or 8 wins.

Washington Redskins: 6 wins
Prediction: More
Boy, when are the Redskins going to get it together?  Maybe Haskins will end up being their guy.  I'll bet money he gets some starts this year, and he could even do well.  I could see them stealing some wins.  7 wins.

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