The Seattle Mariners are in the process of a rebuild. There's no getting around it. That's what it is. They are not expected to contend this year, and even asking for a playoff run next year may be too early. But the youth movement is here and it is also the future. Gone are Cano, Cruz, and now Felix Hernandez. Seager and Gordon are close to gone. Haniger could join them.
The 2020 season is for the young guys. We get to see Evan White at first base. Barring injury or significant struggles (knock on wood), we get to see full seasons from Shed Long, J.P. Crawford, Kyle Lewis, and Jake Fraley. The 2020 Mariners won't make the playoffs (barring a miracle), but they will be interesting and worth a watch. I'm certainly going to want to say that I watched the start of these young men's careers. Hopefully they'll be leading our team to the playoffs in a few years.
I'm going to go over what I expect from each notable player, including the veterans. Team success isn't quite as important as seeing progress in certain individuals; namely, the youngsters mentioned above. At the end I'll assign them a tier number. These tiers are in reference to their careers as a Mariner from 2020 onwards, so if they already had their success, they might have a surprisingly low tier. Those tiers are:
- Tier 1: I predict them to be a future star with us. I'd be surprised if they never made an All-Star team for us. Might not be quite as iconic as Felix or Ichiro, but will become one of the faces of the franchise.
- Tier 2: They'll be a serviceable starter, maybe borderline All-Star. We've had guys like Jose Lopez, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, and Daniel Vogelbach make the All-Star team just once and anyone in this tier will be like them. Although Vogelbach only had a good half-season.
- Tier 3: They'll have a good season for us or two, but that's it. Nothing all-star worthy.
- Tier 4: They really don't have much to give us and/or they'll be gone by the end of the season.
Catcher
Tom Murphy - With Murphy's emergence as the starting catcher, Omar Narvaez became expendable. Murph will get the bulk of starts behind the dish in 2020. He's not our future at catcher, but he's our starting catcher until Cal Raleigh is ready. Interestingly, Murph is the only pure catcher on the 40 man roster, as Nola is listed as an infielder. I expect Murph to have a similar 2020 as he did 2019, and hopefully he does not drop off (at least not significantly). I'll give him a Tier 3 because I don't expect Murph to be our catcher in two years.
Austin Nola - I'm excited to see him catch more in 2020. He may be used as a super utility player in 2020, going from catcher to first to third and maybe outfield. Nola burst onto the scene in 2019, but he faded down the stretch. Hopefully he can have a more consistent 2020 season. If he rakes, Servais will find a spot for him in the lineup. If he continues to do fairly well, which I hope, I'll give him a Tier 2. I think he has potential to be our All-Star representative this season. He's got to get starts somewhere, though.
First Base/DH
Evan White - I'm more excited to see this kid play defense than I am to see him hit. His defense is constantly raved about, so I bet we'll see a sparkling play from him or two. He doesn't need to absolutely light it up with his bat in 2020, but get at least some timely hits and show some pop. I see him as a Tier 2. I don't see a ton of star power in Evan. I could see him being the next Eric Hosmer.
Daniel Vogelbach - He just completely fell apart last year. After the All-Star break, he couldn't buy a hit, and our lone "All Star" ended up hitting .208 for the year. He needs to have a more consistent 2020 for sure. I do not see him as a regular in our lineup around the end of the season. If he struggles, he'll get cut. If he has success, he could get traded because he's turning 28 later this year and could be dealt for a prospect to a team needed a left-handed bat. But I am very concerned for Vogey; his fall-off last year is concerning, so I while I'd like to give him a Tier 3, I am leaning more towards Tier 4. If he doesn't get off to a decent start, we won't have the patience for him, and we could see Nola take a few of his starts.
Second Base
Shed Long - Apparently Shed will be given the bulk of the opportunities at second base over veteran Dee Gordon. Shed showed some flashes last year with a surprising amount of pop in his 5'8" frame. He needs to get better defensively, however. He struggled mightily early on last year with his glove. I'll give Shed a Tier 2. Like Evan White, has some good qualities but lacks star power.
Dee Gordon - Dee is in a weird spot. He's sort of going to be used as a utility man, spelling Shed and JP and maybe even playing outfield. He'll also, I'm sure, be used as a pinch-runner. But more than likely, Jerry Dipoto will find a suitor for Dee who will want to use his glove, legs, and contact ability. I don't expect Dee to make it past the trade deadline, therefore I won't guess at his stats. I expect Dee gone soon, so he gets a Tier 4.
Shorstop
J.P. Crawford - J.P. would have to really struggle to lose his job. He did start off last season great, but finished kind of slowly (but so did most of the youngsters). I'm sure we'll see quite a few more sparkling defensive plays this year from J.P. as he makes a name for himself in baseball. I just hope he's able to hit for a fairly high average and stay at the top of the lineup. I am torn between tiers 1 and 2 for J.P., but because of his defense I will give him a Tier 1. If he turns out anything like Francisco Lindor, I'll be a very happy man.
Third Base
Kyle Seager - Seags is in a weird spot. We can't really trade him because he has a poison pill in his contract; basically the option in his contract gets converted to another year automatically if he gets traded, and he is making way more than what he's worth at the moment. He's the longest tenured Mariner now, and it'll be interesting to see how much the Mariners front office wants him to play. They'll want him to play to hopefully increase his trade value. But with how much he has put into this organization, I could see him staying for a while to also help mentor the younger players on both hitting and defense. I'll give Seags a Tier 3.
Outfield
Mitch Haniger - Unfortunately Mitch survived another set-back and will miss spring training and probably the start of the season. You might think he's a bit injury-prone. It's unfortunate; his career got off to such a great start with us. Kyle Seager suffered a set-back at the start of last year, so hopefully Mitch has a similar hot streak to Seager's in him. He could be trade bait if that happens. Mitch literally could be any of the tiers, depending on how well he bounces back and if we trade him. I'll go with Tier 3, because we have a lot of outfield talent in our system, and he is injury-prone.
Mallex Smith - I'd prefer him as a 4th outfielder and speed off the bench, but what can you do. He'll probably share time in center with Jake Fraley, Haniger, and maybe even Dee. I just wish he hit a bit more consistently. He could be a potential trade piece if a team needs to replace an injured center-fielder or they need speed on the bench. I'm going with Tier 4 because I expect Mallex to either be benched or traded.
Kyle Lewis - Hard to get off to a better start than Kyle did at the end of last season. It was awesome to watch. Can he carry that over to 2020? Remember, Dustin Ackley got off to a really good start too, and we all remember how that turned out. He's got potential to be a 5 tool player. I am going to give him a Tier 1 because I feel optimistic when it comes to Kyle's chances. He's been in our system a while and he finally gets his first full season to prove himself. And I could see him like an Adam Jones type player.
Jake Fraley - I was not too impressed with Fraley last year. In 40 AB's last year he hit .150 and did not get a home run. He's surprisingly good defensively, but I worry about his bat. He could surprise me this year and go on a tear, but I just don't feel like that will happen. He didn't look wholely comfortable at the plate last year. I know, that could change. I'm going to give him a Tier 3. I could see us trading him in a year or two, especially if Kelenic or Rodriguez come up and go on a tear.
Every other position player: I don't see anyone else having a lengthy or impactful career with the Mariners. Dylan Moore, Tim Lopes, Patrick Wisdom, and Braden Bishop will battle it out for the remaining spots. Haniger will probably start the season on the DL, so that opens a spot for someone, probably Bishop. Usually, teams carry 12 or 13 position players, so there's not a ton of room for other players. Wisdom is the newbie so I'll be most interested to see how he does.
Starting Pitchers
Marco Gonzalez - Marco is our presumed opening day starter since he was last year. He just got a nice new contract as well, which I was happy to see. Marco is a great guy to lead this pitching staff until we get some of the youngsters up, and then hopefully be able to pass on some knowledge to them. I'll give Marco a Tier 2, only because I don't see Marco becoming a true bona fide #1 starter. He could make one All-Star team as our lone representative.
Yusei Kikuchi - Yusei certainly had some moments in 2019, most notably in Cleveland and New York. Otherwise, he mostly struggled. He will need to make significant improvements in 2020, otherwise he won't be with us long. He'll be given plenty of chances because A) We don't have too many starting pitching options and B) We're not expected to make the playoffs. Unless Yusei makes a big jump this year, I give him Tier 3.
Justus Sheffield - Justus didn't really impress me last year, but it was his first significant big league action. He, along with Kikuchi, will need to make an improvement in 2020. I give Justus a better chance due to his age. I really hope he can become at least a serviceable starter, because when we acquired him in the James Paxton trade, he was supposed to be a legit frontline starter. I'll give him a Tier 2, but I feel like I'm being optimistic with that.
Kendall Graveman - I really only know him by name, but I see he struggled a bit with the A's and then underwent Tommy John surgery. He could either surprise us or cost us multiple games. Even if Graveman struggles, Servais will probably be forced to stick with him due to lack of options. I'm giving Graveman a Tier 4 based on recent history.
Justin Dunn - Dunn showed flashes last year in very limited time. I honestly see him as more of a reliever than a starter, but maybe that's just me. I like Dunn, he seems like he'll work hard and compete his butt off, but how well will he really do? Time will tell. I will give him a Tier 3, hoping to be proven wrong.
Bullpen: Much like with the bench, I'm not going to go over the bullpen individually. I think our bullpen is going to see a huge amount of turnover the next few seasons until we find guys that stick. I like Magill and Tuivailala. We also brought in Carl Edwards Jr. and Yoshihisa Hirano, so it will be fun to see how those guys do. There's also Erik Swanson, Brandon Brennan, and Dan Altavilla, who all pitched for us last year, but I don't really like any of them that much.
It's odd how excited I am for this upcoming season. I know at times it won't be pretty, but to see young players develop is fun to watch. This season will remind me of the 2011 Seahawks, who had a lot of bright, young stars but not a lot of experience. They were still really fun to watch, however.
I'll predict a record of 69-93. It's not great, but it's not awful, either. I think there will be just enough talent to avoid 100 or even 95 losses.
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