The 2021 NFL season is almost upon us, and I thought I'd make my NFL Predictions differently this year. I usually go division by division, predicting the W-L record of each team. Instead, I'll go team by team, giving them a ceiling (best they could do) and a basement (worst they could do). To figure out about my W-L prediction for them, generally, go somewhere in the middle. I'll try not to have too large a gap between the ceiling and the basement, setting my max at five games. And in case anyone has forgotten, this is the first season with seventeen games; therefore, we will have some odd W-L records. Finally, some teams may finish lower than their basement if they lose their starting quarterback (or have multiple significant injuries) for a substantial amount of time; I went with each starting quarterback staying relatively healthy.
Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 6-11
Comment: In a tough division, 11 wins may seem like a stretch, but if one or two teams in the NFC West struggle, then the Cardinals could take advantage of that opportunity. Alternatively, they could struggle to beat division foes if everyone else is playing decent football.
Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: I figure the Falcons' offense should be enough to carry them to a few wins. The loss of Julio Jones is offset by drafting Kyle Pitts. Their defense will be the difference between a 2nd place finish and possibly last place. I may be more optimistic than most people with the Falcons, but I like the pairing of Arthur Smith and Matt Ryan. If he can revive Ryan Tannehill's career, think of what he could do with the better arm of Matt Ryan.
Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 9-8
Comment: The Ravens are almost guaranteed a winning record with their talent and dynamic QB, Lamar Jackson, and balanced roster. How high they fly will be determined by how well they do against the Browns and Steelers. They got a good shot at winning their division, but they will have to hold off the talented Browns and always competitive Steelers.
Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 14-3
Basement: 10-7
Comment: The Bills are now one of the top-notch teams in the AFC. They will be able to beat up on the Jets and take AT LEAST one game from each of the Patriots and the Dolphins. However, I see them tripping up throughout the season a few times. Their team is still a bit young, but they also remind me of that Chiefs team that lost the AFC Championship Game, but then the following season won the Super Bowl.
Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 9-8
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Panthers will be a scrappy bunch and certainly have some talent, but not enough to challenge Tampa Bay for the division (yet). Their success will largely depend on how well Sam Darnold adjusts to playing in Carolina and if Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy. Can Matt Rhule and Sam Darnold become a great coach/QB duo? Time will tell.
Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: If the Bears finish around their basement or lower, Matt Nagy and Ryan Grigson will have to find new jobs. But I do not think they will. A switch to Justin Fields could ignite the offense and team, similar to what we saw in San Francisco when they transitioned to Kaepernick in 2011. They could win the NFC North, or they could plummet and wonder if they will ever find a franchise quarterback.
Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Even if Joe Burrow stays healthy all year, there's too much competition in their division AND conference. And I could still see them struggling quite a bit, but I think they have enough talent to win a small handful of games, even if they lose Burrow again. Let's hope Burrow can stay healthy all year to prove what he is capable of accomplishing.
Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Browns are a fickle bunch. They could continue their rise, fall flat on their face (because let's face it, they're the Browns), or they could be somewhere in-between. I think they will be somewhere in-between and grab a wild card spot (again).
Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: These records are if Dak stays relatively healthy all season. They have the most talent easily in the NFC East, and in my opinion, should win it this year. If he struggles to stay healthy or the Cowboys struggle to handle their division, they may lose it again.
Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 8-9
Basement: 3-14
Comment: For the Broncos to get close to eight wins, they would need Teddy Two-Gloves to play his best football since Minnesota and make good connections with Jerry Jeudy and the rest of the receivers. Or he could get hurt, Drew Lock struggles with a lack of confidence, and the Broncos get a top 5 pick.
Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 2-15
Comment: For the Lions to approach their ceiling, they will need another NFC North team to collapse. Each of those three expects to sweep Detroit. But it could happen. Or, new coach Dan Campbell's message could get old fast, and the Lions become the worst team in the NFC.
Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Aaron Rodgers drama will either affect them a little or a lot. If it's a little, they will remain division champs and again get a top seed. If it's a lot, they may lose the division title or maybe a playoff spot altogether. They have a very talented roster, but Aaron certainly carries them at times. The Packers currently have a situation where if one bad thing happens, it could lead to a chain reaction of bad things happening, ultimately derailing their entire season.
Houston Texans
Ceiling: 4-13
Basement: 0-17
Comment: It is not very often we see a team come into the season with such low expectations. The Texans were terrible last year, and somehow they got even worse. Their coaching hire of David Culley was incredibly uninspired, and who knows if and when Deshaun Watson will play. When your basement is literally zero wins, you know you're in trouble.
Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Colts' two injuries to two of their most important players makes them hard to predict. If the injuries don't last too long, they should remain competitive, but I see a ceiling of about 12 wins for them. On the other hand, they could succumb to the injuries, but there is no way they lose more than ten games if that.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 7-10
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Trevor Lawrence should immediately give them a boost. Also, the Texans being as awful as they are, should give the Jags one, probably two easy wins. They do play a last-place schedule, which helps. However, they lost running back Travis Etienne for the year, and their offensive line does not look good, so I do not expect much from them. Even if Trevor Lawrence is a football god, there's no way they get to .500 or better.
Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 15-2
Basement: 10-7
Comment: The Chiefs are a borderline dynasty. If they win the AFC conference championship again, I would argue they are a dynasty. Even if Mahomes gets a little banged up as he did two years ago, they should still reach double-digit wins. They are just too talented and too well-coached not to get there.
Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Raiders have some talented players, but I would bet on them finishing with seven wins or fewer if I was betting on them. They rely a bit too much on Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr, and if either misses significant time, they are SOL. Jon Gruden doesn't seem to be able to turn this team around. They may compete or fall flat on their face.
Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: It is tough to see the Chargers doing worse than seven wins if Herbert stays healthy after they rebuilt their offensive line. Herbert set rookie records last year with one of the worst offensive lines in football. New coach Brandon Staley shouldn't face too much challenge, and I bet the Chargers can reach second place.
Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Rams made a significant change at the quarterback position, acquiring former Lions signal-caller Matthew Stafford. I feel there will be a learning curve, and Stafford will be marginally better than Goff if it all. They should contend for a wild card spot at the very least, but a division title does not seem as easy as everyone else is predicting.
Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Fins gave Tua some more weapons and help, and he should at least be halfway decent. They could be as good as a top wild card seed or missing out on the playoffs because the offense cannot come together. The Bills seem to remain the superior team for the time being.
Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 6-11
Comment: I feel for Mike Zimmer. His QB refuses to vaccinate. The Vikings never show enough to escape the middle of the NFC North. They remind me of the Mariners of the mid-2010s: never awful, some exciting players, but never good enough to do anything of note. They may surprise and win ten games, or they may suck and lose eleven. I think it will be somewhere in-between.
New England Patriots
Ceiling: 11-6
Basement: 7-10
Comment: We cannot forget that New England is a well-coached, well-run team. They have an excellent offensive line, and Mac Jones in his rookie season should have a decent amount of success. They may compete with or even surpass Miami for second place in the division.
New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: The Saints still have Sean Payton as their head coach, even if Drew Brees retired. They won't be awful, but they sure will not feel like the same Saints of old. We'll have to see how they do with Jameis Winston, but I'm guessing he might struggle against some of the more formidable NFC teams.
New York Giants
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: Even if everything goes right, I do not see the Giants taking the league by storm. The problem is, I do not see everything going right. The Giants seem like a fragile team that cannot handle even one bad thing going wrong, such as losing Saquon Barkley to injury. I do like Joe Judge, but a midwest-type team may better suit him.
New York Jets
Ceiling: 6-11
Basement: 2-15
Comment: The Jets, like the Jaguars, are undergoing a slow rebuild. They could not even lose enough to get the number one overall pick last season. However, with Zach Wilson, they should be at least a tad better. If they win close to six games, they should consider it an improvement and a start.
Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 8-9
Basement: 3-14
Comment: Many are predicting the Eagles to be awful, citing their uninspired coaching hire and lack of quality moves in the offseason. I initially thought they'd be halfway decent, but they will undoubtedly have to undergo a rebuild. If Jalen Hurts can carry them a la Deshaun Watson with the Texans, they might get 6, 7, or maybe even 8 wins. But it's more likely they will hit double-digit losses and close to a top-five pick in next year's draft.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: The Steelers have somehow never had a losing season in the 14 seasons under Mike Tomlin. Bill Cowher cannot say the same; he had three losing seasons. But all good things must come to an end, right? However, I feel like whenever I or anyone else counts the Steelers out, they have a surprisingly good season. Therefore, I'm not exactly sure what to expect.
San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 7-10
Comment: Last year was a disaster for the 49ers following their Super Bowl loss. They hope to stay healthier this year. With an impending QB change looming, how will that affect the team? I know a lot of 49er players love Jimmy Garoppolo (George Kittle being one). The 49ers are the one team that could be a Super Bowl contender if everything comes together, or they could have a repeat of last season. They will be slightly better than last season, but they will have some speed bumps due to not having consistency at QB.
Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 13-4
Basement: 9-8
Comment: The Hawks have never had a losing record in the Russell Wilson era, and it's tough to see that ending this season. The overall consistency between the offense and the defense will make or break this season for the Hawks. Can they be at their best at the same time? If they can, the Hawks should win the division and get a top seed. If not, they may be battling the Rams or 49ers for the division and may even lose it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 15-2
Basement: 11-6
Comment: The defending Super Bowl champs return all 22 starters, unheard of in today's NFL. They should be able to avoid the adjustment period they underwent in the first half of last season. However, opposing teams will circle them on their schedules, resulting in getting the best from their opposition every week. They won't go undefeated, but I'd be shocked if they didn't have the division wrapped up by mid-December.
Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 12-5
Basement: 8-9
Comment: The Titans are fortunate to play in a reasonably easy division. Their success will largely be determined by how well they beat up their division foes. They'll be in decent shape if they can sweep Houston and Jacksonville and take at least one from Indy. I'm not counting on huge things from Tennessee this season, even with the addition of Julio Jones. They will likely be a borderline playoff team.
Washington Football Team
Ceiling: 10-7
Basement: 5-12
Comment: WFT somehow won the division last year despite having very inconsistent quarterback play. They were lucky to arguably have the best defensive line in the entire NFL last season. And it should remain at least one of the best. They could challenge for the division crown, but they will need a quarterback, Fitzpatrick or Heinicke, to step up and do enough necessary to win.
Now let's predict the playoffs:
AFC Seedings
1) Kansas City
2) Buffalo
3) Baltimore
4) Indianapolis
5) Tennessee
6) Cleveland
7) New England
NFC Seedings
1) Tampa Bay
2) Seattle
3) Green Bay
4) Dallas
5) Los Angeles Rams
6) San Francisco
7) Chicago
AFC Wild Card Round
(7) New England at (2) Buffalo: Buffalo wins
(6) Cleveland at (3) Baltimore: Cleveland wins
(5) Tennessee at (4) Indianapolis: Tennessee wins
NFC Wild Card Round
(7) Chicago at (2) Seattle: Seattle wins
(6) San Francisco at (3) Green Bay: San Francisco wins
(5) Los Angeles Rams at (4) Dallas: Los Angeles Rams win
AFC Divisional Round
(6) Cleveland at (1) Kansas City: Kansas City wins
(5) Tennessee at (2) Buffalo: Buffalo wins
NFC Divisional Round
(6) San Francisco at (1) Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins
(5) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Seattle: Seattle wins
Conference Championships
AFC: Buffalo at Kansas City: Buffalo wins
NFC: Seattle at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins
Super Bowl LVI: Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wins
Award winners:
MVP: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay
OPOY: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
DPOY: TJ Watt, Pittsburgh
OROY: Justin Fields, Chicago
DROY: Micah Parsons, Dallas
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay
Comeback player of the year: Dak Prescott, Dallas
Coaches Fired:
Vic Fangio, Denver
David Culley, Houston
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona
Jon Gruden, Las Vegas
I'll try to come back and see how many of the 32 teams I correctly called their ceiling and basement, making sure to point out any teams that fell outside the range. See you then!
