The NFL season is still a few days away, and I thought I'd do what I've done a few times before, and that is make 10 bold or surprising predictions for the 2022 NFL season. These are all predictions that odds are, likely won't happen, but I feel they all have a bigger chance of happening than most realize. I'll come back after the season and see how I did.
1. The vaunted AFC West will only have one wild card team
In a highly competitive AFC, some are still saying the AFC West will have two, perhaps even three wild card teams make the playoffs, in addition to the division winner. I think only one wild card team makes the playoffs, with the other two being fairly close but just missing out. My prediction is the Broncos and Raiders just miss out.
After Week 5: This is likely. Denver's struggling, the Raiders got off to a slow start, and the Chargers are inconsistent. Likely only one of those teams will recover to nab a wild card spot.
After Week 12: The Chargers seem like the team that would get a wild card, if any, although I wouldn't count out the Raiders just yet. This is still a likely possibility, but they have to watch out for the beastly AFC East.
After Week 18: I was correct! However, the other two, the Raiders and Broncos, weren't fairly close and did not just miss out. At least I predicted the correct teams. Full point.
2. There will be a 1 point safety in the NFL for the first time
You heard it here first. Here's how it'll happen: A team will score a touchdown late (less than 30 seconds remaining) to take a one-point lead, such as 27-26 or 30-29. They will then go for a 2-point conversion to try to make it a 3-point game. The opposing team will intercept a pass, take it out of the end zone, and lateral it to a teammate (or fail to lateral, and it becomes a fumble in the end zone that they recover). Why would they lateral? Because they are down by a point, and losing 1 point makes no difference, and it's worth it to go all out for 2 points with less than 30 seconds left. Is it likely to happen? No. But it's certainly possible under the right circumstances.
After Week 5: Nothing yet, but I'm still hopeful.|
After Week 12: Still nothing...
After Week 18: Nope, did not happen. Still could happen some day. I can dream... (No points)
3. We will have a surprising MVP this season
Whether it be a non-quarterback or a surprising quarterback, I think we'll be surprised by who has an MVP season and takes home the award. My pick is Kirk Cousins. I know, I know. It could also perhaps be Derek Carr, which would surprise people. Most would expect a Rodgers threepeat or someone like Brady, Mahomes, or Josh Allen to win it. Or maybe Russell Wilson. But not Cousins or Carr.
After Week 5: Well it's not going to be Carr or Cousins. It still could be someone unlikely, but it's more likely to be someone like Allen or Mahomes.
After Week 12: It looks like Mahomes, which wouldn't be a surprise MVP to me. Although, if Tua or Hurts plays really well to finish the year, they could get it, and that would qualify as a surprising MVP to me.
After Week 18: Nope. Mahomes won MVP. I'd have given myself a point if it was Hurts, as he wasn't expected to be that good. At least Mahomes ended the MVP curse.
4. Only 3 or 4 head coaches will be fired by season's end
Usually, we have 6 or 7 head coaches fired, but I don't think we'll have that many this season. Of the teams that will likely struggle, they're either led by a newer head coach (Jets-Saleh, Falcons-Smith, Texans-Smith) or a very long-tenured one (Seahawks-Carroll). The likeliest candidates are Mike McCarthy of the Cowboys and Matt Rhule of the Panthers, but I don't see either of those two teams struggling that much.
After Week 5: Well we've already had one in Matt Rhule. But I'm struggling to find two or three others. Will Tomlin after the legacy he built? Will Reich? Will Hackett or McDaniels after just one season?
After Week 12: We've now had two, counting Frank Reich as well. I've heard rumblings about Hackett; I think he's gone. But McDaniels is safe according to Mark Davis. Who else could be fired? Possibly Kingsbury. I think Tomlin and Stefanski are safe based on past success. So I'm thinking at least 3, possibility for 1 more. We'll see.
After Week 18: Rhule, Reich, Hackett, Kingsbury, and Smith makes five. Staley could still be gone, but I doubt it. Anyway, 5 is just over what I said. No points.
5. We will see a game in which both teams score 50+ points
In 2018, we saw the Rams and Chiefs battle to a score of 54-51. I think we see another one of those types of games this season, perhaps involving the Chiefs again. It will be a scorigami and it will be an amazing game. Hopefully, it'll be a nationally televised game.
After Week 5: We almost had it with the Seahawks-Lions game which ended 48-45. The season is still young.
After Week 12: Still nothing, although the Cowboys have put up a couple 40-spots, including 49 against the Bears.
After Week 18: Nope. A few close calls, but I don't think a single team eclipsed 50. No points.
6. The Cardinals and Cowboys both miss the playoffs
Both are 2021 playoff teams that lost to NFC West teams in their first playoff game last year. Well, both are now missing the playoffs. We see a lot of turnover in NFL playoff teams from year to year, and I'm picking both of these teams to be on the downward trend.
After Week 5: Cardinals very possible, but the Cowboys are looking good so far. We'll see.
After Week 12: The Cowboys are likely making the playoffs, making this prediction wrong. Oh well, at least I'll get the Cardinals prediction right.
After Week 18: The Cowboys made the playoffs. Can't give myself a point.
7. There will be multiple ties this season
Predicting just one tie is not bold enough. Nope, I'm predicting two ties. Two different games will end in a tie. And one of them will be a tie after both teams get field goals to start overtime.
After Week 5: Already have one! And we've come close to a couple others (game-winning field goals in the final minute of OT that if they had missed would've resulted in a tie).
After Week 12: Still only one, but we've had a few OT games go late (Packers-Patriots, Packers-Cowboys, Seahawks-Raiders, etc.)
After Week 18: The Commanders and Giants tied, making this prediction correct! Neither game had both teams getting a field goal in OT, but I still get a point.
8. We will almost have an 0-17 team (or we'll have a team start at least 0-13).
Now my 2022 NFL Predictions don't reflect this, but I think there will be a team that almost goes winless. I'm also calling their sole victory doesn't come until late in the season, somewhere in weeks 14-16. Likely candidates that could pull this off include the Falcons, the Texans, and my Seahawks.
After Week 5: Well this is my worst prediction so far, as the Texans just won making it so there are no winless teams through 5 weeks. Oops...
After Week 12: Again, oops. I should've realized there's more parity in the NFL. The Texans may end up finishing 1-15-1, which is close.
After Week 18: Nope. The Texans won three games, same as the Bears. Oh well.
9. Russell Wilson will have growing pains, be only halfway decent, and fail to get a single MVP vote. Again.
Maybe this prediction isn't that bold, but I think it is. Anyway, I think Russ will have an up-and-down season with the Broncos. His season as a whole will be all right but a tad disappointing to Broncos fans. And he will again fail to get a single MVP vote.
After Week 5: Nailed it. More downs than ups, and it has gone even worse than I thought it would.
After Week 12: Uh, how about not even halfway decent? Dude is a shell of his former self.
After Week 18: I should've predicted even more boldly here. I had no idea it would be this bad. But I still get a point.
10. The Detroit Lions will have a W/L record that is just as good as or better than all of these teams: The Cowboys, Cardinals, Browns, and Patriots.
I think the Lions will be one of the NFL's most improved teams in 2022. Maybe that's partially because they're on Hard Knocks, but I like what I've seen. They've got heart and grit. I think Jarred Goff shows a bit of what we saw in his Super Bowl season with the Rams.
After Week 5: Oops. After their 1-1 start it was looking possible, but now they're three games behind the Cowboys. At least the other teams aren't doing particularly well.
After Week 12: Well, they're looking a bit better, and could finish better with a record better than all, except the Cowboys. I was close.
After Week 18: Only the Cowboys finished with a better record. I was so close. Oh well. I'll give myself half a point since 3 out of 4 of the teams were worse.
Well, there you have it! I'll be back in January or so to see how these predictions turned out. Wish me luck!
Well, I got 3 and 1/2 right. That's about on par for these predictions. I'd like to try again next season, maybe going even more boldly, as we see some crazy things in the NFL every year.
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