Thoughts on Castillo Trade, M's Future

Just a few days ago, I warned the Mariners and Jerry Dipoto not to give up too much for a player like Juan Soto.  Unfortunately, they gave up a lot, and not even for Juan Soto.  They sent four prospects (3 of the top 5 in the Mariners' system) to the Cincinnati Reds for Luis Castillo, an All-Star pitcher.  He's a borderline top 10 starter in the game and still should have plenty of productive years left.  He is only signed through 2023, so the Mariners may only get a season and a half out of him.  Was this an overpay?  It will all depend on how things shake out.

I understand that you have to give up a lot to get star players.  But man, losing 3 of your top 5 prospects does hurt.  The winner of this trade will be determined by how much Castillo can help the Mariners toward a playoff birth and run and how well those prospects do with the Reds.  

I get it.  The Mariners are desperate for a playoff berth.  I am desperate for that, too.  But if the Mariners make the playoffs once or twice, each followed by early playoff exits, and another drought ensues, was it worth it?  I'd say it hardly was.  However, Castillo will solidify a very good rotation even further for at least the next year and a half, and as the saying goes, you can never have too much good pitching.

The good thing is that 99.9% of prospects are not a sure thing.  We weren't even sure Julio Rodriguez was a sure thing going into this season.  Jarred Kelenic was a highly rated prospect and has still not panned out, and he might never.  At this point, I wish Jerry Dipoto had traded him earlier while his value was still high.  That's what he did with our prospects he sent for Castillo.  He sent them away while their value was still high.  

Obviously, if you trade a prospect that becomes a perennial All-Star or Hall of Famer and don't get the value in return, it becomes an awful trade and one of the worst in franchise history.  But that's the risk you take with trades in MLB.  Every team in the majors has made a huge trade that they regret.  

As Mariner fans, we can only hope Castillo leads us to the playoffs, and we go on a playoff run, and the prospects we sent away only have marginally successful careers at best.  If we aren't able to end the playoff drought and the prospects have great careers with the Reds helping them get to the playoffs, that's going to be too much for us Mariner fans to handle.  We've seen this happen too many times before.  

I hope to look back on this trade and not feel remorse like I do so many other trades in Mariner history.  I often wonder what Mariners' history would've been like if we had held on to the likes of Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe, David Ortiz, and Adam Jones.  

Before I fail to mention, the first full game played after the announcement of this trade, Julio Rodriguez went down with a hand injury and went on the 10-day IL the day after.  The need for hitting became even more apparent.  But Jerry Dipoto decided to go with pitching.  I'm not wholely against that idea because pitching often wins in the playoffs, but if the bats go quiet due to a lack of depth and injuries, that's going to really hurt the M's chances of even making the playoffs.  

We will know in 2 months whether this trade is starting to be worth it or it's looking like another dud trade to add to the list in Mariners history.  Let's hope for the former.