Thursday, February 1, 2024

NFL Coaching Hirings Grades and Thoughts

It's now the 2026 NFL offseason, so I thought I'd go back and re-grade these and look back and see how close my grades were to what they are now.   Any of these updates will be in this blue font.

 With my Seahawks in the process of hiring a new head coach, I'm more invested in the NFL teams hiring head coaches than ever.  So, I thought I'd react and grade each head coach hiring, including the Seahawks', which I will go more in-depth on than other teams.  In order, chronologically:

Patriots hire Jerod Mayo: B-
NFL Linebackers have done well as NFL coaches in recent history.  Vrabel was good in Tennessee up until his last few seasons.  Demeco Ryans did fantastic in his first year in Houston.  Antonio Pierce did well as an interim coach (see below).  This is what you call a very safe move.  Mayo will keep the team from chaos, futility, and disorder, but I definitely think he may be a bridge coach.  The roster is one of the worst in the NFL and one offseason won't fix it.  Mayo learned from Belichick as a player and a coach, so for the players that remain it will be a fairly easy transition.  Maybe, if they make the right moves in the next couple of offseasons, they can return to contention around 2025-2026, but that is my optimistic view for them.

Wow, this was not a great hire.  I thought Mayo would be like Demeco Ryans, but he was not.  He only lasted one season before the Patriots smartly moved on to Mike Vrabel, who (so far) has them in the AFC Championship game in his first year after two back-to-back 13 loss seasons.

Retrospective Grade: F

Raiders hire Antonio Pierce: B+
Could they have done better?  Maybe.  But you had their best player, Maxx Crosby, publicly state if they didn't stick with Pierce that he'd likely request a trade.  That speaks volumes.  Pierce definitely seems like an excellent motivator, but we haven't seen too much of him as an in-game strategist or decision-maker.  It'll be interesting to see.  I could certainly see the Raiders as a potential wild card next year under Pierce.  He's certainly better than McDaniels, and it's good to see Mark Davis learned his lesson.  

Another one that didn't last long.  Yikes.  Pierce was quickly replaced by Pete Carroll, who was also gone after one full season.  Raiders need to find their long term option at coach!  I think the Raiders failed Pierce more than he failed them.

Retrospective Grade: D-

Titans hire Brian Callahan: B
I'm always lukewarm on coaches who have never been head coaches before unless they have an amazing pedigree, but Brian Callahan has a few things going for him.  One, he is the son of a coach and obviously learned a bit from him.  Two, he coordinated one of the league's best offenses in Cincinnati, and even made Jake Browning look decent.  But again, I am skeptical on new coaches, but as far as new coaches go, Callahan is a pretty darn good one.

And we have our third coach who could not complete a second year with the team.  Yikes.  Brian Callahan may have benefited from some nepotism, as his dad, Bob, led the Raiders to the Super Bowl in 2002.  But I think most people know it was a team Bob inherited from Gruden.  And Brian certainly wasn't up for the task in Tennessee.  But again, would any coach have had success?

Retrospective grade: D

Chargers hire Jim Harbaugh: A
Harbaugh has had success wherever he has gone as a head coach.  He went from bowl success with Stanford, to making the Super Bowl with the 49ers, to winning a national title with Michigan.  Next, Super Bowl win with the Chargers?  Hard to be upset with this hire unless you're a Chiefs, Raiders, or Broncos fan.  I can't give it an A+ because Harbaugh has been away from the NFL for a few years, and it has changed in that time.  We've seen coaches away from the NFL game struggle on a return *cough* Jon Gruden *cough*.  I doubt it'll be Harbaugh, but that is a possibility.  

Harbaugh so far has led the Chargers to the playoffs twice, but two first-round exits.  Very uninspiring.  But it's impressive considering the reign of the Chiefs and the recent resurgence of the Broncos.  He should've chosen a different division.  I don't think this is an "A" hire anymore, but not too far off.

Retrospective grade: B

Panthers hire Dave Canales: C
I don't know why this hire doesn't sit particularly well with me.  You have to give Canales some credit for helping revive the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield.  Can he do the same for Bryce Young?  We will see.  Here's the thing: The Seahawks' offense in 2022 and the Buccaneers' offense in 2023 weren't exactly lighting up scoreboards, and had great receiver talent already in place that helped, and both teams barely snuck into the playoffs.  Does Canales get this job if one thing goes wrong for the Hawks in 2022 or the Bucs in 2023 to prevent them from reaching the playoffs?  And he was an OC for only 1 season.  This is a boom or bust hire, so either Canales will join the ranks of McVay, Shanahan, and LeFleur, or he will get fired in a few seasons.  Good luck.  

Oops, read this one kind of wrong.  I think this has been a good hire for the Panthers, as Canales has gotten them from bottom-dweller to a playoff team this year, although they did have a losing record.  Next season will be hugely telling for Canales, whether this team keeps rising or takes a step back.

Retrospective grade: B+

Falcons hire Raheem Morris: D+
I can't wrap my mind around this.  This is a guy who was in the Falcons' organization a bit over 3 years ago, and he was even their interim head coach after they fired Dan Quinn, and they easily could've shed the interim tag and made him full-time.  Instead, they went out and got Arthur Smith, which turned out to be a mistake.  Now they've gone full circle and re-hired Morris.  I just don't get it.  I think Arthur Blank, the Falcons' owner, panicked and hired the guy he was most familiar with.  This is an incredibly safe and low-risk hire.  But I can almost guarantee the Falcons won't do any better than a borderline playoff team under Morris, and possibly a weak division winner if the division sucks (like Tampa Bay this year).  There's no way they'll do better than that.  And more realistically, they'll likely hover around 6-8 wins, just like they did with Smith.

I think I nailed this one.  I knew Raheem wasn't the best choice, and I was right.  Sure, he had some bad luck with Penix's injuries, and he also had to deal with the team drafting a first-round QB after signing Kirk Cousins to a large multi-year deal.  And neither was able to be a long-term starter for them, at least not yet.  The new coach has his work cut out for him at that position, but at least they'll have plenty of weapons with London, Pitts, and of course, Bijan.  

Retrospective grade: D+ (No change)

Seahawks hire Mike Macdonald: A+
A young coach being installed in a place with a support system and decent owners?  That usually works out.  The only time it really hasn't was with Brandon Staley and the Chargers, although you could argue the "decent owner" front.  Let's hope we don't have another Brandon Staley, but something tells me we don't.  I love John Schneider's willingness to go young, and I wonder (we will never likely know) who his plan B would've been.  Macdonald had some amazing defenses in Baltimore, and he made stars out of Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey.  I think he fits in very well in Seattle, and I, as well as many fans, will be willing to give him time.  I'm betting we'll see a quick turnaround on our defense, but the offense might be a work in progress, depending on who he picks for offensive coordinator.  I fully believe he was chosen due to the success his defense had against the NFC West last season, and JS is hoping he replicates that with the Hawks.

Absolutely nailed this one as well.  Macdonald so far has been an A+ hire.  He instantly got this team competitive on his own terms, and in his second year has gotten them the NFC West title, the #1 seed, and to the NFC Championship.  This wasn't a team that needed a ton of help, and in this year's coaching cycle was probably the best spot for a prospective coach.  We had just gotten stale with Carroll's mantra and the same ol' 9-8 type seasons.  Boy was this a great move.

Retrospective grade: A+ (No change)


Commanders hire Dan Quinn: C-
His defenses have done very well in recent years, and I'll say this: we have seen coaches have success when given a 2nd or 3rd shot.  Look at Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick (although, to be fair, DQ is no Carroll or Belichick).  I can see why Commanders' fans would not be too happy.  But hey, they poached him from a division rival, so DQ is certainly familiar with the opposing offenses in the division.  The key to his success will be the OC hire and if they can get a star quarterback.  Sam Howell is a fairly capable starter, but defensive-minded coaches need star QBs, which Howell is not.  This hiring can end up being a success, but so can all of these.  DQ will need to prove he can win without Kyle Shanahan as his OC.

DQ has had mixed results.  He got them all the way to the NFC Championship game in his first year, but had a very disappointing 2025.  I don't really fault him, however.  He was given an aging roster with several holes, and his star QB was hurt for most of the year.  I expect a bit of a bounce back in 2026.  But so far, not too bad.  Commanders fans need to be patient.  He's a good coach.

Retrospective grade: B-

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