Survivor 49 FOUR WORD GAME

Survivor 49 has had its premiere, and I think we're in for another good season.  Like past seasons, I'm going to give each player remaining in the game (and the booted player) four words to describe the current state of their game, what they need to do, what I noticed, and anything that might stand out about them to me.  I'll then elaborate a tiny bit on that, especially only a little early on, considering I have a lot of players to get through.  

As always, I'll be starting with my lowest-ranked player, then going sequentially to my highest-ranked player.  This first week is based on my pre-season rankings from my other Survivor 49 post.  Let's go!

EPISODE 1 FOUR WORD GAME

Matt: WAY off on him
I don't know why I thought he'd be an even kookier Gabler, but I did.  But no, Matt seems to be very well-prepared for Survivor, at least physically.  His biggest obstacle will be connecting with players 20+ years younger than him.  But he seems grounded and 

Steven: Tribe gushing over him
Another I think I may have been way off on is Steven.  His whole tribe seemed to gush over him: Matt, Jason, and MC.  That is HUGE.  I can no longer see him as a pre-merge boot.  He may have a long run in him.  We shall see.

Shannon: Connecting better than expected
Shannon seemed to form a duo with Savannah.  And you know what, that's EXACTLY what I thought would happen when first seeing the tribe divisions.  But I allowed other people's predictions for her to infiltrate my mind.  I gotta go with my gut more.

Nate: Call him Papa Cool
At least, that's what I would if I was on his tribe, even though Nate is less than 6 years older than me... sigh.  He seemed to immerse himself well on his tribe, connecting with Savannah.  

Sage: Too weird for Survivor
She's mentioned collecting pimples (pre-season interview), peeing off the boat and showing her butt, and that she likes poop.  There is no way she will be taken seriously if she gets to the final tribal.  I did like how she connected with Shannon, but I get this feeling Shannon would turn on her if she had to.

Jason: This season's puzzle master
We've had some puzzle masters in the New Era (Evie, Carson, Kamilla), and I think Jason could join their ranks.  He dominated the cube puzzle in the first challenge.  

Kristina: Cirie style of edit?
Cirie's first ever episode of Survivor showed her afraid of bugs and leaves and how she's a couch potato.  VERY similar of edit and story for Kristina.  I 100% believe they are trying to recreate a New Era Cirie.  Whether or not they are successful, I'm not sure.  I'm surprised we didn't see an instant connection between her and MC, but perhaps their personalities are too different.

Alex: Set up to fail
Not just in the one-on-one challenge against Rizo, but the edit is setting him up to be blindsided.  At least that's how it feels to me.  But in the challenge, man, how could he have 15 extra minutes of digging and not find the shipwheel before Rizo?  I like his connection to Jake, and he tried to make one with Annie before she threw his name out.  

MC: Physically perfect for Survivor
She seems in great shape.  I don't think we got much of her game socially or strategically.  One note I'll make here: She sounds a lot like Sydney (Ayo Edibiri) from the TV show "The Bear".  They have similar voices.  Would love to see more next week from MC.

Jawan: Not a great start
He seemed to really be into the fact that Nate worked on a Spider-Man film, but we never saw Jawan and him connect much.  Then, he tries to start a fire, and it gets to him both physically and mentally, and Savannah takes notice.  Just not a great start for him.  Savannah DID like him, but after his fire-making debacle, she might be willing to just let him go.

Sophi: Have to be careful
And what I mean by that is if people notice you're making too many connections, they will target you.  See Swati in 42.  But the way it was portrayed, it didn't seem too bad.  I think she's in a great spot, since Annie would prefer to go with her and Jeremiah over Jake and Alex.

Jeremiah: That damn annoying laugh...
My word.  I don't know if I can take a full season of it.  Here's hoping we have a few episodes without it.  I do like his positioning in the game and the connection he made with Sophi.  He seemed to also get along with Jake, a fellow Canadian.  Socially, he seems to be there, unless people realize they can no longer put up with his annoying laugh.

Jake: Too much bro energy
He's just too much.  I do like his connection with Alex, but I am foreseeing a blindside on him shortly after the merge.  He should survive the pre-merge unless their tribe is dumb and wants to lose 3+ pre-merge challenges.  

Annie: Doesn't have it socially
She literally said she's never done a competition with a social element before.  RED FLAG.  She also threw Alex's name out AFTER making an alliance with him.  She also went off on her own and didn't connect to too many other people (Sophi, kind of).  

Rizo: Will be featured player
He's definitely going to finish at or near the top for confessionals, no doubt.  Sure, the one-on-one challenge helped since they make players narrate it, but he still would've been in the top half without it I think.  He also seems to have ingratiated himself well into his tribe.  His tribe seems to like him.  

Sophie: Did well guiding challenge
I really don't recall any camp life stuff with her, so this is all I have.  She seems to remain calm under pressure, which is good.  But I feel if she was a major player this season, she would have had more in the premiere episode.  Plus, we don't know of any alliance for her.  So I am a bit concerned.

Savannah: Exactly how I predicted
I had a good feeling that Savannah would form good bonds early.  She would be the one person on her tribe I would most be surprised to be blindsided.  We saw her perspective on a few different things, which always bodes well for a potential winner.  

And to our departed player...

Nicole: Not for this show
Physically she wasn't handling it well.  Socially, she spit in Jeremiah's face to help clear the mud out of his eyes, which I'm sure rubbed him at least a little the wrong way.  And lastly, she couldn't detect that her tribemates were lying to her.  She just wasn't cut out for Survivor, unfortunately.

First official power rankings!  There is obviously going to be a LOT of movement early from my pre-season rankings.  Some players I think I already got massive misreads on.  

17th: Jawan (-9)
16th: Annie (-12)
15th: Sophie (-13)
14th: Sage (-1)
13th: Kristina (-2)
12th: Alex (-2)
11th: Shannon (+4)
10th: Jake (-5)
9th: Jason (+3)
8th: Matt (+10)
7th: Sophi (0)
6th: MC (+3)
5th: Nate (+9)
4th: Jeremiah (+2)
3rd: Steven (+14)
2nd: Rizo (+1)
1st: Savannah (0)

Big risers: Matt (+10), Nate (+9), Steven (+14!)
Big fallers: Jawan (-9), Annie (-12), Sophie (-13)

Comment: Jawan falls the hardest for me and to #17.  I'm going to predict we don't quite have a disaster tribe this season and both red and yellow go to tribal pre-merge.  I worry for Jawan if red goes.  I'd like to put Annie higher, but socially, she just doesn't seem to be quite there.  I also thought that about Gabler, so maybe she has a Gabler-style run in her.  Then we have a bunch of players we didn't see enough strategy from (#15-11), then some who I got good feelings about but still worry a bit (#10-6).  My top 5 I could see going far.  We shall see.  

AFTER EPISODE 2 FOUR WORD GAME

Jawan: Endeared himself to tribe
Interesting how we got Savannah's take on it (again), but Jawan did endear himself to his tribe by not only winning the journey but choosing to help his tribe over himself.  But then that put him in the tough spot of having to alienate an entire tribe.  For that reason alone, I might've chosen to help myself.

Sophie: Somehow connected to group
We saw something, I guess, with her connecting through MC to the main foursome on Hina.  But Sophie undoubtedly will be in trouble if Hina loses a challenge, which after seeing this past immunity, might not happen.

Sage: Oddly sat out challenge
To me, Sage comes across as one of the more physical women on the cast, having served in the military.  Yet she was Uli's first ever sit out.  Not tiny Savannah, not skinny Shannon, and not skinny Rizo.  Her.  Seems like it worked out, though.

Kristina: Should watch allies closely
Especially MC, who seems to maybe not want to be in the group.  We might have a power struggle.  But with how little content we've gotten from Hina, they might not go to a pre-merge tribal.  

Alex: Saving idol smart move
Also was getting Jake to help him.  If Alex had saved Annie, that would have earned her trust but lost Jake's, Sophi's, and Jeremiah's.  He is now the most powerful player in the game, being the only one currently with an idol or advantage.

Shannon: Spiritual stuff must stop
She can't be the Kumbaya leader, even if that makes people happier.  People won't respect her as a Survivor player at the end.  Shannon might get far, but her win equity remains low.

Jake: Shoe bandit must stop

Even if he doesn't get caught, it's contributing to his tribe's low morale.  If he absolutely must do it, he needs to hide his own shoe.  But so far, the person whose shoe he has hidden has been voted out, so that might not be the wisest.

Jason: Still the puzzle king
Hina absolutely killed it at the challenge, and it was largely because of Jason's puzzle prowess.  Even Jeff is starting to take notice.  Let this be a lesson to future Survivor players.  It's more important to be able to do puzzles than to be in top notch physical shape.  Although you do have to be in somewhat good shape.

Matt: Smart to form alliance

And it was an interesting one, with two white males and two black females.  I don't think we have ever had an alliance like that on Survivor.  I think it will largely be on Matt to keep it together and not do anything to cause the women to go with Sophie and pick up Jason.

Sophi: Weirdly close to Jake
I'm getting a weird vibe with how close she seems to be to Jake, but it's not really shown, only told.  Like the producers are cutting stuff out they don't want to show us.  Anyway, Sophi needs to pick it up at puzzles or she could be the next to go.

MC: Absolutely right move made
Not only did she form a foursome, but she connected with Sophie just in case she wanted to make a move against them.  Worst comes to worst, she turns on Sophie pre-merge, which won't hurt her since Sophie wouldn't be on the jury.  

Nate: He's not that old
I'm sorry, but Nate is still a millennial.  He is now the old man on his tribe.  That's crazy to me.  I'm a millennial, so it makes me feel old as well.  At least he's trying to relate to his tribe.

Jeremiah: Next on chopping block?
He might be.  If Kele loses AGAIN, it sure looks like Jeremiah might be the next to go.  He seems the least connected player remaining on his tribe.

Steven: Left out, stock falls
Steven was largely absent from this past episode, so my winner stock in him ultimately has to fall.  I like how he formed that foursome with Matt, MC, and Kristina, and I think even if MC and Kristina turn on them, they're more likely to turn on Matt than Steven... I think.

Rizo: Showing that generational gap 
I think that was Rizo's purpose this past episode.  We saw a bit from Savannah as well, but mostly Rizo.  He was largely devoid of any real game content, so that's a small concern, but I don't believe winners in the New Era get game content EVERY episode.

Savannah: Devious but at top
I'm keeping Savannah here until I see any large evidence to think otherwise.  She's gotten good content the first two episodes and outside of Kele has been the most consistently prominent player.  

And to our departed player...

Annie: Not her ideal season
Switch Annie with Sue Smey from 47.  Does Sue do any better this season?  I don't think she does.  She wouldn't help the tribe more.  My point is, Annie was put on a bad tribe on a less than ideal season.  Timing is everything in Survivor, including what season you get put on.

New power rankings!  Obviously, this early on, there will be a LOT of movement.  I've definitely gone back and forth on multiple players.  Here it is:

16th: Jeremiah (-12)
15th: Sage (-1)
14th: Jawan (+3)
13th: Sophie (+2)
12th: Jason (-3)
11th: Matt (-3)
10th: Alex (+2)
9th: Sophi (-2)
8th: Kristina (+5)
7th: Steven (-4)
6th: MC (0)
5th: Jake (+5)
4th: Nate (+1)
3rd: Shannon (+8)
2nd: Rizo (0)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rise: Shannon (+8)
Biggest fall: Jeremiah (-12)

I'm going all-in on Kele being the disaster tribe and voting out Jeremiah next episode.  Yes, he was included in the promo for 49, but so was Brandon Donlon for 45.  The next few are who I feel are either at the bottom of near the bottom of their tribes, then two of the other Kele and Alex and Sophi, than the remaining Hina members, then Jake, then the power alliance on Uli.  With Kele struggling and Hina not getting screen time, that says to me Uli is the tribe that goes furthest in this game.  That's usually the case.  It's not the disaster tribe (outside of 44), and it's not the tribe ignored in the edit.  We shall see.  

AFTER EPISODE 3 FOUR WORD GAME
Quick side note: I did NOT like this past episode.  Kele lost again, and I am so sick of the current format which almost ensures we have one tribe taking up all the screen time and time at tribal.  It's BEYOND old at this point.  Also, I was VERY tempted to not do a 4WG for some players who barely got any screen time this past episode, but a lot of these will be very short and brief.
 
Sage: Wise to do something
Besides just be on the outs.  Good for Sage to stir something up.

Jawan: Still thinks he's in
The majority, or so it appears.  With a tribe swap coming up, we will never find out.  Thanks, Jeff.  

Sophie: Medevac got her emotional
Sophie was one I noticed was particularly shocked by the news.  

Jason: Jeff making him threat
Jeff keeps pointing out how well Jason is doing at the puzzle portion.  That's not doing Jason any favors.

Matt: Bring in someone else
Whoever is a new tribemate to Matt, Matt needs to bring them into his four.  

Alex: Had to play safe
He had to play his idol, right?  Despite not getting votes from both Sophi and Jeremiah, he would've been kinda silly not to, since he could always find another.  That should be a rule of thumb for future Survivor players: If you have a tribe of 3 and you have an Idol, play it.  

Sophi: Will find new life
The complex content Sophi has gotten leads me to believe she will go fairly far.  Obviously, Alex and Sophi will not be considered threats, as Uli and Hina will be gunning for each other.  

Kristina: Did challenge surprisingly well
I think it's safe to say that Kristina is of a similar build to Cirie, who famously struggled with a water balance beam in Game Changers, so I was pleasantly surprised to see how well Kristina did.

Steven: Social game determines everything 
We know Steven isn't too physically threatening nor weak, which is good.  He can likely strategize.  Him bonding with other players come the tribe swap and merge will determine how far he goes.

MC: Found advantage, good position
To me, MC is the top of the Hina tribe.  She has the beware advantage that seems easy enough to become an idol, and she has connections to the four and Sophie.  She's solid.

Nate: How will age affect?
If not at all, I could see Nate going very far.  If it's a slight issue, it could be the reason he goes.

Shannon: Power position, but vulnerable
Shannon was referred to being in a power position, but I could easily see Savannah casting her aside if she needed to.  I have a feeling that may happen shortly after the merge.

Rizo: Lack of maturity there
It makes me think if Rizo gets to the end, he won't even be 2nd.  I worry about anyone taking him seriously.

Savannah: Must lower threat level
I think her lack of size won't fool many people.  Small can be mighty in the game of Survivor.  

And to our TWO departed players...

Jake: Departure seemed bit off
Like there was still some information we're not getting.  Did his wife communicate to him that he hadn't had their baby, and used this "medevac" as an excuse to go home?  Also, if Jake REALLY wanted to stay in the game, the smart thing would've been to lie and say the snake only brushed up against him, because it appears they did not get it on camera.  But perhaps he was worried for his own safety.  

Jeremiah: Another gay man fifteenth
The last FIVE players to be the fourth boot (or finish in 15th) have ALL been gay men, most of them non-white.  From 45 on, it has been Sean, Bhanu, Kishan, Thomas, and now Jeremiah.  If you're a gay man going to tribal that night, play your idol or shot in the dark!

And our new power rankings... we have a VERY predictable tribe swap next episode, so that'll affect things here a bit.  I'm going to have to go with more of how they're being portrayed rather their current position on their tribes, since I don't know how the tribes will shake out.

14th: Sophie (-1)
13th: Sage (+2)
12th: Kristina (-4)
11th: Jason (+1)
10th: Jawan (+4)
9th: Matt (+2)
8th: Steven (-1)
7th: Nate (-3)
6th: Alex (+4)
5th: MC (+1)
4th: Shannon (-1)
3rd: Rizo (-1)
2nd: Sophi (+7)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rise: Sophi (+7)
Biggest fall: Kristina (-4)

Alex and Sophi take huge jumps as they will no longer be considered threats, and it appears Hina and Uli will be going after each other.  If it was just Alex and Sophie each joining a different tribe (like in Philippines), I would have them much lower, but it appears everyone is dropping their buffs and that is not the case.  Most of Hina is near the bottom, because of the two tribes that have YET to go to tribal STILL, Hina is definitely not getting as much screen time.