Survivor 49 FOUR WORD GAME

Survivor 49 has had its premiere, and ______.  Like past seasons, I'm going to give each player remaining in the game (and the booted player) four words to describe the current state of their game, what they need to do, what I noticed, and anything that might stand out about them to me.  I'll then elaborate a tiny bit on that, especially only a little early on, considering I have a lot of players to get through.  

As always, I'll be starting with my lowest-ranked player, then going sequentially to my highest-ranked player.  This first week is based on my pre-season rankings from my other Survivor 49 post.  Let's go!

EPISODE 1 FOUR WORD GAME

Matt: WAY off on him
I don't know why I thought he'd be an even kookier Gabler, but I did.  But no, Matt seems to be very well-prepared for Survivor, at least physically.  His biggest obstacle will be connecting with players 20+ years younger than him.  But he seems grounded and 

Steven: Tribe gushing over him
Another I think I may have been way off on is Steven.  His whole tribe seemed to gush over him: Matt, Jason, and MC.  That is HUGE.  I can no longer see him as a pre-merge boot.  He may have a long run in him.  We shall see.

Shannon: Connecting better than expected
Shannon seemed to form a duo with Savannah.  And you know what, that's EXACTLY what I thought would happen when first seeing the tribe divisions.  But I allowed other people's predictions for her to infiltrate my mind.  I gotta go with my gut more.

Nate: Call him Papa Cool
At least, that's what I would if I was on his tribe, even though Nate is less than 6 years older than me... sigh.  He seemed to immerse himself well on his tribe, connecting with Savannah.  

Sage: Too weird for Survivor
She's mentioned collecting pimples (pre-season interview), peeing off the boat and showing her butt, and that she likes poop.  There is no way she will be taken seriously if she gets to the final tribal.  I did like how she connected with Shannon, but I get this feeling Shannon would turn on her if she had to.

Jason: This season's puzzle master
We've had some puzzle masters in the New Era (Evie, Carson, Kamilla), and I think Jason could join their ranks.  He dominated the cube puzzle in the first challenge.  

Kristina: Cirie style of edit?
Cirie's first ever episode of Survivor showed her afraid of bugs and leaves and how she's a couch potato.  VERY similar of edit and story for Kristina.  I 100% believe they are trying to recreate a New Era Cirie.  Whether or not they are successful, I'm not sure.  I'm surprised we didn't see an instant connection between her and MC, but perhaps their personalities are too different.

Alex: Set up to fail
Not just in the one-on-one challenge against Rizo, but the edit is setting him up to be blindsided.  At least that's how it feels to me.  But in the challenge, man, how could he have 15 extra minutes of digging and not find the shipwheel before Rizo?  I like his connection to Jake, and he tried to make one with Annie before she threw his name out.  

MC: Physically perfect for Survivor
She seems in great shape.  I don't think we got much of her game socially or strategically.  One note I'll make here: She sounds a lot like Sydney (Ayo Edibiri) from the TV show "The Bear".  They have similar voices.  Would love to see more next week from MC.

Jawan: Not a great start
He seemed to really be into the fact that Nate worked on a Spider-Man film, but we never saw Jawan and him connect much.  Then, he tries to start a fire, and it gets to him both physically and mentally, and Savannah takes notice.  Just not a great start for him.  Savannah DID like him, but after his fire-making debacle, she might be willing to just let him go.

Sophi: Have to be careful
And what I mean by that is if people notice you're making too many connections, they will target you.  See Swati in 42.  But the way it was portrayed, it didn't seem too bad.  I think she's in a great spot, since Annie would prefer to go with her and Jeremiah over Jake and Alex.

Jeremiah: That damn annoying laugh...
My word.  I don't know if I can take a full season of it.  Here's hoping we have a few episodes without it.  I do like his positioning in the game and the connection he made with Sophi.  He seemed to also get along with Jake, a fellow Canadian.  Socially, he seems to be there, unless people realize they can no longer put up with his annoying laugh.

Jake: Too much bro energy
He's just too much.  I do like his connection with Alex, but I am foreseeing a blindside on him shortly after the merge.  He should survive the pre-merge unless their tribe is dumb and wants to lose 3+ pre-merge challenges.  

Annie: Doesn't have it socially
She literally said she's never done a competition with a social element before.  RED FLAG.  She also threw Alex's name out AFTER making an alliance with him.  She also went off on her own and didn't connect to too many other people (Sophi, kind of).  

Rizo: Will be featured player
He's definitely going to finish at or near the top for confessionals, no doubt.  Sure, the one-on-one challenge helped since they make players narrate it, but he still would've been in the top half without it I think.  He also seems to have ingratiated himself well into his tribe.  His tribe seems to like him.  

Sophie: Did well guiding challenge
I really don't recall any camp life stuff with her, so this is all I have.  She seems to remain calm under pressure, which is good.  But I feel if she was a major player this season, she would have had more in the premiere episode.  Plus, we don't know of any alliance for her.  So I am a bit concerned.

Savannah: Exactly how I predicted
I had a good feeling that Savannah would form good bonds early.  She would be the one person on her tribe I would most be surprised to be blindsided.  We saw her perspective on a few different things, which always bodes well for a potential winner.  

And to our departed player...

Nicole: Not for this show
Physically she wasn't handling it well.  Socially, she spit in Jeremiah's face to help clear the mud out of his eyes, which I'm sure rubbed him at least a little the wrong way.  And lastly, she couldn't detect that her tribemates were lying to her.  She just wasn't cut out for Survivor, unfortunately.

First official power rankings!  There is obviously going to be a LOT of movement early from my pre-season rankings.  Some players I think I already got massive misreads on.  

17th: Jawan (-9)
16th: Annie (-12)
15th: Sophie (-13)
14th: Sage (-1)
13th: Kristina (-2)
12th: Alex (-2)
11th: Shannon (+4)
10th: Jake (-5)
9th: Jason (+3)
8th: Matt (+10)
7th: Sophi (0)
6th: MC (+3)
5th: Nate (+9)
4th: Jeremiah (+2)
3rd: Steven (+14)
2nd: Rizo (+1)
1st: Savannah (0)

Big risers: Matt (+10), Nate (+9), Steven (+14!)
Big fallers: Jawan (-9), Annie (-12), Sophie (-13)

Comment: Jawan falls the hardest for me and to #17.  I'm going to predict we don't quite have a disaster tribe this season and both red and yellow go to tribal pre-merge.  I worry for Jawan if red goes.  I'd like to put Annie higher, but socially, she just doesn't seem to be quite there.  I also thought that about Gabler, so maybe she has a Gabler-style run in her.  Then we have a bunch of players we didn't see enough strategy from (#15-11), then some who I got good feelings about but still worry a bit (#10-6).  My top 5 I could see going far.  We shall see.