American Idol Season 11 Top 13 Predictions

Well, I did this last year, and I believe the year before as well, so I will do it again this year. Last year, I was way off, saying Scotty (Who won) would finish 9^th (and no better than 6^th) and Haley (who was 3rd) at 12^th. But I wasn’t too far off on anyone else. Also I will pick one song I’d like to hear each contestant sing the most just like I did last year, and I will try to give them something current to sing, but no guarantees.  This now includes my recap as to how well I predicted (updated May 24, 2012) in RED.  Here we go, in alphabetical order (by last name):

DeAndre Brackensick
DeAndre sort of bugs me. He cannot help but hit his falsetto every few seconds in his performances. Just once, I’d like to hear him sing a song with no falsettos. And America didn’t even vote for him, but he could get far based on his youthfulness and marketability.
Predicted finish: 11^th-5^th
Song he should sing: Ooh Baby Baby by Smokey Robinson & The Miracles (His voice is JUST like Smokey Robinson’s!): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uThnUmWRCCs
Result: 8th - I was right on the money with DeAndre, with 8th being exactly between 11th and 5th place.  I was getting a bit worried when he survived the first few eliminations, but he left at 8.  

Hollie CavanaghI like Hollie. She’s young, good-looking, and fun to watch. She needs to stay away from Christina Aguilera and Britney Spears songs so she doesn’t get compared to them too much. Perhaps she could sing a sort of pop/rock song, sort of like Kelly Clarkson. She is a wild card—could go early or could go far.
Predicted finish: 9^th-3^rd
Song she should sing: Because of You by Kelly Clarkson (And pour her heart out into it, otherwise it won’t work): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biff2Rx5VZw
Result: 4th - Higher than I thought she'd finish, but she did survive some close calls, having been in the bottom 3 or 2 FIVE times prior to her leaving.  She was indeed a wild card, and she got lucky.

Colton DixonColton is my favorite this year. I was a fan of his last year, but he got cut. No one is really as happy as Colton to be in the Top 13. He could sing almost anything, and he’s extremely marketable. If he gets star power, he could REALLY be a contender to win. He’s got a fanbase and a lot of people (ahem—girls) love him. He can sing rock songs as evidenced in his performance of “What About Now” by Daughtry.
Predicted finish: 8^th-1^st
Song he should sing: Light on by David Cook: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DS-movP04Lw
OR
Laid by Matt Nathanson (if it was deemed suitable for TV audiences): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI_6MMIQgac
Result: 7th - Everyone was surprised by his elimination, but he still fell into that range I had him in.  I had a slight inkling that he would be a surprise elimination, seeing as the save was used just before him leaving.

Heejun Han
Heejun is someone I feel made it to the Top 13 based on popularity, and not talent. He’s good, but not great. He will become a Vote for the Worst Pick and get decently far based on his popularity. He has no shot of winning, however.
Predicted finish: 9^th-5^th
Song he should sing: Invisible by Clay Aiken: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYaLwoTRDTQ He could make this a funny performance, haha.
Result: 9th - Still in the range, but barely.  I said he had no shot of winning, yet I said he could get as high as 5th.  My bad.  The talent level was too high for a VFTW pick to get that far.  He was too inconsistent and it cost him.  

Jermaine Jones
I was shocked when he was announced in the Top 10 via America’s votes. He’s got a hugely deep voice, but he really has no shot of winning. However, you look at Melanie Amaro on the X Factor. She was cut, then brought back, and then she won it all. You never know. But my guess is he gets cut somewhat early for a lack of range.
Predicted finish: 12^th-7^th
Song he should sing: Hard to think of one, but I’ll go with Midnight Train to Georgia by Gladys Knight: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4Vfxq7Hs_I so he can put his own spin on it.
Result: 12th (Disqualified) - Well, still in my range, but he would have been much closer to the center of the range had he not been DQ'ed.  Hard to say how far he would have gone--Joshua, another black singer from the South got to 3rd.  

Skylar LaineSkylar is this year’s Lauren Alaina, but perhaps EVEN BETTER. She has the chops, the confidence, the style, and she already knows what genre she is in. She could and should sail far through this competition. If any girl has a shot of ending the string of male winners on this show, it’s her. But I think she’ll fall just short.
Predicted finish: 7^th-2^nd
Song she should sing: Before He Cheats by Carrie Underwood: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUO9Hok7wBY
Result: 5th - Right in my range for her, but she really had tough odds going against all that talent in Phillip, Jessica, and Joshua.  Had she been on season 10, she might've beaten Lauren Alaina, but we'll never know.

Joshua Ledet
Joshua is a wild-card. He’s someone the judges love more than America does. I see him as the Jacob Lusk of this season, really good, but hampered by the lack of real star power. Perhaps Joshua will emerge with some. We shall see. He’s someone that if he had the fewest votes early on, that the judges would save.
Predicted finish: 8^th-3^rd
Song he should sing: It’s a Man’s Man’s Man’s World by James Brown: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwuO2dfqrF4
Result: 3rd - Again in my range but on the very cusp of it.  Much better than Jacob Lusk.  He did "emerge with some [star power]" like I said he might.  And guess what?  He sang the song I picked for him, and not only that, but it ended up being one of his BEST PERFORMANCES!!!  I nailed that song selection.

Shannon MagraneI honestly was a bit surprised to see her make it, but her tall frame kinda stands out, doesn’t it? She has a really good voice, but it doesn’t stand out to me. And she’s only 16… wow. I see her falling through the cracks and suffering an early elimination, especially if she doesn’t make herself stand out… with her voice. She has a little bit of Kelly Clarkson and Katy Perry in her voice…
Predicted finish: 12^th-6^th
Song she should sing: Firework by Katy Perry: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXOfB5m6e28
Result: 11th - She took on WAY too big of songs, especially for only being 16.  There was a 16 year old that could handle songs like that, but it wasn't her.  She needed to sing more relevant pop songs and not those huge ballads, but she never got the chance to.  

Phillip PhillipsAnother one of my favorites is Phillip… Phillips. What a name. He’s got that soulful rocker thing to his voice and, like James Durbin last year, he is one of my picks to make the final two. I think the girls will love him and he will avoid the bottom 3 every week. He has been compared to Dave Matthews.
Predicted finish: 6^th-1^st
Song he should sing: You and Me by the Dave Matthews Band: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kD9CrZODlNA
Result: Made final two?  Yep.  Avoid bottom 3 every week?  Yep.  He did eventually sing a DMB song but it wasn't You and Me.  Oh well.  He won.

Jeremy RosadoAnother wild-card pick of the judges, Jeremy definitely has the voice and the personality. He is just missing star-power and marketability. Jeremy wasn’t put through by America so I don’t see his fanbase being that strong or supportive. But hard not to like this guy.
Predicted finish: 10^th-5^th
Song he should sing: Without You by David Guetta (He needs to sing something current): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lyzEovLOWM
Result: 13th - The FIRST to be outside my range.  Not only did he not have starpower or marketability, but his voice wasn't that great, either.  Likability only gets you so far. 

Jessica SanchezThis is another girl that many people think can win, but I see her as another Thia Megia. Here is what they both have in common: Both young, not white, 16 years old, and both appeared on America’s Got Talent. I think Jessica is slightly better, but we’ll see. She can make it far, but I wouldn’t be shocked if she got a surprise early elimination.
Predicted finish: 8^th-3^rd
Song she should sing: Circle of Life by Elton John (I hear a lot of Jennifer Hudson in her voice, and if they did a Disney songs week, this would be the song for her): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erbr3L2NRo4
Result: 2nd - Just BARELY outside my range for her, but had she NOT been saved, she would have been in my range.  So I blame the judges.  She's definitely better than Thia Megia.  I said I wouldn't be surprised if she got a surprise early elimination, and technically she did, but the judges saved her.  She did get the farthest out of anyone who has ever gotten the save.

Elise TestoneShe’s sort of a no-name, having not seen much of her in the Hollywood rounds. She could be this year’s Pia Toscano, because last year I didn’t know much about Pia. Elise benefited from having a great Top 25 performance and America put her through. Her age (28 years old) works against her, though.
Predicted finish: 11^th-5^th
Song she should sing: The First Cut is the Deepest by Rod Stewart (Sheryl Crow’s version): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dK9eLe8EQps
Result: 6th - In my range, but barely.  She did much better than I thought she would.  She had that bluesy voice that really worked well with certain songs.  I hate to say it, but I underestimated her.
Erika Van PeltIn my opinion, she had a very average wild card performance and the judges put her through based on her desire. I don’t see her generating any sort of a fanbase, so she’s my first pick to go in the Top 13. It wouldn’t shock me if she got halfway through the Top 13, though. She has a husky sort of Cher voice, so she should sing a Cher song at some point. That is if she gets the chance to.
Predicted finish: 13^th-7^th
Song she should sing: It’s in His Kiss (Shoop Shoop Song) by Cher: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwGGZTZ-3pM
Result: 10th - Right in the middle of my range for her.  She should've covered a Cher song somehow... oh well.  Not much else to say about her.  

Ok, using those predictions, this is the order of the Top 13:

(Actual finishers at that place in red--BOLD for correct picks)

13. Erika (Jeremy)
12. Jermaine  (Jermaine--HA!)
11. Shannon (Shannon--HA AGAIN!)
10. DeAndre (Erika)
9. Elise (Heejun)
8. Jeremy (DeAndre)
7. Heejun (Colton)
6. Hollie (Elise)
5. Jessica (Skylar)
4. Joshua (Hollie)
3. Colton (Joshua)
2. Skylar (Jessica)
1. Phillip (Phillip--predicted winner from the start)
Most places off: Jeremy (5 places--finished 13th, predicted 8th)
Fewest places off: Jermaine, Shannon, and Phillip (all correct), Joshua (just 1 spot off)

Well, there you have it. Phillip Phillips beats Skylar Laine in the finals. I instantly have this feeling I did it totally wrong, and I have Hollie and Joshua too high (NOPE, I had them too low!) while having DeAndre, Shannon, and Jermaine too low (only DeAndre was too low of those three). Oh well. Go Colton and Phillip!

My Thoughts on the Arena Situation

In just the past few days a plan has been put forth for a brand new NBA/NHL arena in downtown Seattle. The arena would be funded by private investors mainly, but also a huge chunk coming from taxes generated by the arena. This all started thanks to the efforts of one Chris Hansen, who grew up in Seattle. The arena would be located south of the Safeco Field parking garage. The Seattle Mariners organization expressed concern that it would cause traffic and parking problems, but when the Sonics were here, they hardly ever played at the same time as the Mariners as they only shared ½ of a month (first half of April). But the biggest concern is getting both NBA and NHL teams to call it home, because many feel, myself included, that the arena would not be profitable unless we got both.

Getting just one team won’t be easy, let alone two. The most likely candidates are the NBA’s Sacramento Kings and the NHL’s Phoenix Coyotes. The Kings face a March 1 deadline for their arena proposal, and if nothing adequate is put forth, the team will consider relocation. But I still see the city of Sacramento holding onto them, given their passionate and loyal fans, and seeing as that city has just one professional sports team to begin with. Worst case scenario, I see the Kings moving to Anaheim, giving the Los Angeles metropolitan area three NBA teams. However, I can see the Phoenix Coyotes coming to Seattle pretty easily. There is very little passion for hockey in the entire state of Arizona, and seeing how we embraced the Sounders, we would certainly embrace a hockey team as well. If we somehow got an NBA team, I think then getting an NHL team, most likely the Coyotes, would be fairly easy, so long as the centerpiece in all of this, Chris Hansen, gets a partner to acquire an NHL team.

There were a few reasons the Sonics left. The one used most often by the ownership group lead by Clay Bennett was that Key Arena was no longer suitable as an NBA arena. Now that a plan is in place, if an arena gets built, it will obviously be capable of housing multiple teams, hosting concerts and events (such as graduations) and more. Proving to teams that our arena would be up to standards would not be difficult at all. Proving to teams that we have the fanbase to support the teams shouldn’t be a problem either.

But the one big problem is acquiring two teams, one from each league. Expansion teams are almost out of the question, given the poor state of the NBA (which is closer to contraction than expansion) and the somewhat abysmal American following of the NHL. If we can’t get the Kings, who can we get? The Hornets? New Orleans has already lost one team in its history (the Jazz). All I can say is that it won’t be easy. But part one is done. We’re taking this one step at a time, but now it is time to start on part two. We’ll just have to see if the Kings will relocate. If not, it could be a long time before we see men’s professional basketball again in Seattle.

My Thoughts on the Pineda-Montero Trade

Well, the Mariners have officially made the trade to acquire catcher Jesus Montero and pitcher Hector Noesi from the New York Yankees for pitcher Michael Pineda and pitcher Jose Campos. You might be wondering how I see this trade or what I think of it. Well, I don’t like it, at least right now. If you think about it, we traded an All-Star pitcher, and a good young pitching prospect, for a hitting prospect and a relief pitcher with no outstanding qualities. We traded an All-Star, and we got only “potential” in return. If I was a GM, this is exactly the kind of trade I would never make, especially considering that “All-Star” is still only 23 years old. Another way I look at it is this: You have 9 hitters in your lineup, but only 5 (and it goes down to 3 or 4 in the postseason) starting pitchers. To me, starting pitchers are more valuable than hitters.

But we also must consider Montero’s potential. He is widely considered not only the best catching prospect, but one of the game’s best future hitters. His only concern is if he can handle the position of catcher, given his size. But Montero is one of the surest young hitters, and almost all baseball writers and insiders believe he will be an All-Star someday. He has all the tools to be a .300 avg, 30+ HR and 100+ RBI guy.

But that’s the problem I have with it. Montero COULD and SHOULD be an All-Star someday, but WILL he? You can’t guarantee it. We’ve seen young Mariner hitters struggle coming up from the minor leagues. He also might not like playing in Seattle very much. Even if he does produce, he could want out of here once his contract expires, and then what? We traded an All-Star for a couple of years of a young catcher.

GM Jack Zduriencik made this trade because we had a need: A need for a power hitter at either LF, 3B, 1B/DH, or Catcher. He filled one of those needs. We couldn’t get Fielder, but we got someone with more years left to play. But my problem with this is what we had to give up: Michael Pineda. I can almost guarantee Pineda will end up beating the Mariners, perhaps even in the playoffs. I’d be a little happier with this trade if it was with an NL club, so we wouldn’t have to face Pineda. But Montero was on an AL team, the Yankees, and now the Yankees have added a huge young arm to their rotation, to go along with their monster hitters. And we can’t forget giving up pitcher Jose Campos, who could also turn out to be a decent pitcher.

I’ve witnessed many Mariner trades in my lifetime, from the Big Unit trade, to the Griffey trade, to the Erik Bedard trade. But really none of them made me feel this uncomfortable about our future. This trade will really have an impact on the legacy of “Trader Jack” as GM for the Mariners, just like the Bedard trade did for Bill Bavasi. I just have a feeling we gave up a future Cy Young award winner for a catcher who will sign elsewhere when he can. I’ll just try to assure myself that we will be able to fill Pineda’s spot in the rotation and that Montero will be another young hitter that will help this team get back to the playoffs.

Mariners Don’t Need Fielder

With the Seahawks season over and no basketball team here in Seattle, one of the focuses of the Seattle sports landscape is on the Mariners and their pursuit of Prince Fielder. I’m here to offer my opinion on the matter: It would be better if we didn’t sign Fielder. Yes, he’s only 27, but he is a whopping 285 pounds and has slow speed and very little range at first base. But that’s just the negatives about his playing abilities.

Signing Fielder would really only benefit the Mariners if they were able to sign him to a 2-4 year contract. That way, if he drops off after a couple seasons, the Mariners could then trade him and not lose much or just simply let him go after his contract expires. Investing 7 years and over $200 million in him is extremely risky and would become a huge burden if Fielder were to struggle, which I think he would. The unfortunate thing is, Fielder only wants a contract of around 7 years in length, which makes it tougher to decide.

If Prince Fielder was a Mariner, he would more than likely see a drop in his statistics. One reason being the home park he would play in, Safeco Field, which is known to be a pitcher’s park. Also, he would not be protected by any other bats in the lineup (He had Ryan Braun in Milwaukee). Also, the Mariners certainly have not had recent success with free agents, with all of the following considered to be busts: Chone Figgins, Richie Sexson, and even Adrian Beltre. Those are the three players who have earned the largest Free Agent Contracts from the Mariners in the past decade, and all three underperformed. Two of the three, the two power hitters Sexson and Beltre, came from the National League, which Fielder would be coming from as well. The odds are against Fielder repeating his success.

I’m also worried about the possible signing because of his character. The tattoos don’t bother me too much (Josh Hamilton has a lot and he’s a good player), but he has a bit of a sour attitude, doesn’t get along with his dad (former Major League Cecil Fielder), and he could turn into a sour apple much like Chone Figgins has. I could easily see a mutual hate between the fans and Fielder come to fruition.

Personally, I don’t think we will sign him. Sure, he has a good connection with our GM Jack Zduriencik (Jack used to be the Assistant GM of the Brewers), but he wants to stay in the NL and play for an organization that could win a championship. The Cubs are a trendy pick because of their long history, and the Nationals are building up a lot of good young players, including Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasberg. The Mariners are not appealing enough, especially to a power hitter, and at this point I’d be shocked if he chose the Mariners.

If by some weird outcome the Mariners did sign him, I do think they’d have a real good chance of being competitive. But that’s what we’ve said every year after our big moves, such as signing Beltre, Sexson, Figgins, and when we made trades for Erik Bedard and Cliff Lee. Each of the seasons after acquiring those five players was a huge disappointment. If the Mariners signed Fielder, I really do believe we would have to start the rebuilding process over again, because we’d be tied down to his contract. We’ve done this process over and over. The Mariners need to take things slowly this time. There are a lot of good, young players still developing, and this team needs to continue to draft and sign young players who will have a positive impact. Now is not the time to sign a power bat, especially one that would cost the M’s over $200 million over the next seven years.

I will however say the Mariners need a power bat. It’s obvious. This team is really made up of slappy singles and doubles hitters, with Ichiro being the prime example. But I think the Mariners will have to get a power bat from 3 other methods: 1) Draft/promote someone from the minor leagues, 2) Trade for one, or 3) Wait until the next offseason. Look, the Mariners are not going to be suddenly good in 2012. We don’t have to put all our eggs in one basket. It’s going to take some more time. I think Jack Zduriencik will make a trade for a power hitter at some point, either later this offseason, before the trading deadline (if the Mariners are competitive), or next offseason. Or perhaps Mike Carp, Casper Wells, or someone else will emerge as a power hitter and hit 25 or more home runs.

Next season is not going to be about winning it all, or even getting to the playoffs. The Mariners are still in a rebuilding mode, and like it or not, signing Prince Fielder would be a huge mistake, at least down the road. Fortunately, the Mariners should be close to the end of their rebuilding process soon and should be a competitive team by 2013 at the latest. And let’s not forget, Jack Zduriencik could still surprise us and trade for a big bat before even 2012 starts. Time will tell. Don’t give up hope, M’s fans, even if we don’t get Fielder, because we can live without him.

Seahawks Can't Fly with T-Jack

I have been largely critical of Tarvaris Jackson, the quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks. And let's face it, with all the injuries the Seahawks have sustained, you can't really say the guy has done a poor job. However, there have been many things standing out this season against the guy, the most notable being he failed to lead us on a game-winning drive all season. In the seven Seahawk victories, 2 were games the defense protected the lead just barely, and the rest were blowouts thanks to mainly the efforts of Marshawn Lynch and the defense. And of the 9 losses, 5 were games where he and the offense had the ball in the final quarter with a chance to tie or take the lead. Not once did the offense do that. Good quarterbacks win at least 1 or 2 of those games. But Tarvaris failed each time to lead the team on a game-winning or tying drive.

Now we can't pin this all on Tarvaris, but anyone watching the Seahawks this year has noticed some semi-bonehead moves on his part, such as holding onto the football too long or throwing to checkdown receivers unnecessarily. Folks, there's a reason the Vikings didn't want him anymore. There's a reason tons of Vikings fans didn't like him as their quarterback. He's just not a franchise quarterback. He is not a guy who will ever lead a team to the Super Bowl. So why are we sticking with him?

I understand why the Seahawks signed him this past offseason. There was the lockout, plus the Seahawks were able to get the offensive coordinator Jackson had worked with in Minnesota, Darrell Bevell. He was a short-term fix for losing Hasselbeck. But now what? Scary as it may seem, but head coach Pete Carroll has been saying things like "Tarvaris is our guy", making us wonder if there's something we're not seeing. Tarvaris should be nothing more than a short-term fix.

The Seahawks are in a difficult spot with their quarterback situation. They have two choices. Stick with Tarvaris and hope he can somehow get better in the clutch, or get someone else who will have to learn a new system and a whole new offense. Neither is extremely appealing. But the idea of another unfulfilling season with Jackson at quarterback is extremely depressing. But just look at what ROOKIE Andy Dalton has done with the Bengals. He's in the playoffs, even with the lockout and the fact that he is a rookie. If the Bengals can do it, so can the Seahawks.

Here's what I ask: That the Seahawks draft, sign, or trade for a quarterback this offseason. Charlie Whitehurst's contract will be up and he probably won't be resigned. So, the Seahawks will need a new #2. I want the Seahawks to acquire a quarterback fans like myself can get excited about. Someone like a Matt Flynn, Landry Jones, or a Jimmy Clausen to get us thinking we can be in this for the long haul. The Seahawks won't be in it for the long haul if they stick with Jackson. I'm not asking that we get rid of Jackson, but I don't want to see him declared the #1 starter in training camp like he was this season.

I'm tired of settling. There will be a lot of noise for the Seahawks next season, and not just in CenturyLink Field. And there will be even more noise if the Seahawks acquire a franchise quarterback. My pledge is this: If the Seahawks get a QB that can someday be a franchise quarterback, I will continue to believe and follow in this team. However, if we keep Jackson, and either resign Whitehurst or bring in another ho-hum quarterback, then I am done. I won't follow this team, because I refuse to get let down--again. Your move, Pete, John, and Co. Get us a franchise quarterback, or you can kiss the playoffs in 2012 goodbye.

My Review on Survivor South Pacific and My Predictions

Spoiler alert for anyone who has yet to watch the Survivor: South Pacific season finale. I will discuss how everyone did and compare them to my predictions, as well as look ahead to next season.

Scroll down only if you have watched it...









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As I correctly predicted, Sophie ended up winning Survivor, making me 2-2 in predicting the Survivor winners around Final 7. I had a feeling if she got to the end that she'd get more votes than Coach or Albert or Brandon or Rick, and I guessed right that Ozzy would not make the finals. I did not get right that Albert was in the finals--instead I had Rick. However, again I predicted the winner correctly, but let's see how everyone else did.

John "Cochran" Cochran
Predicted: 8th
Finished: 8th
Cochran failed in Redemption, although he was pretty close. I give him kudos for almost beating the Challenge King. He made a good jury member and ended up being one of the three that threw a vote Coach's way, as I correctly predicted.

Edma Ma
Predicted: 5th
Finished: 7th
I honestly thought Coach would fight for her, but he didn't. At the time, I didn't realize how strong that core 5 was. If I had known that, I would have put her at 7th where she finished.

Brandon Hantz
Predicted: 6th
Finished: 6th
I thought Brandon's dramatics would get him booted somewhat early, but it was more his dumb move of giving up his immunity necklace. Unless you have an idol or an alliance you would trust with your life, you just simply cannot do that.

Rick Nelson
Predicted: 3rd
Finished: 5th
Rick was the odd man out once Ozzy won immunity. It would have been interesting to see if he would have made the Final 3 had Ozzy not won Final 5 immunity. Nonetheless, Rick did not come too close to winning, like I predicted.

Oscar "Ozzy" Lusth
Predicted: 7th
Finished: 4th
Even I underestimated Ozzy. I knew there would be a challenge that would be his downfall, I just didn't know it wouldn't be until Final 4. The sad thing is, had he won that challenge, he would be the Sole Survivor, beating Coach and Albert in the finals.

Albert Destrade
Predicted: 4th
Finished: 3rd
Albert lucked out when Brandon gave him his Immunity Necklace, otherwise, Albert would have left at 6th. Albert got on Rick's bad side, got on Sophie bad's side, and I knew he had VERY little shot of winning, and I came close to predicting where he'd finish.

Coach Wade
Predicted: 2nd
Finished: 2nd
Like Russell Hantz has done so many times, Coach played a runner up game to a T. He gained followers and made promises and alliances he couldn't keep. It got him to the end, but just like Russell, he made too many promises and had to break some. Playing that way is an easy way to get to the finals, but it then becomes extremely hard to get the jury to forgive you and vote for you. Coach finished 2nd, just like I knew he would.

Sophie Clarke
Predicted: 1st
Finished: 1st
Sophie did what she had to. She stayed quiet when she needed to and won a huge challenge at Final 4 when she was probably gonna be out if Ozzy won. I had faith in her and I knew that a lot of the Savaii would see her as the lesser of three evils. Only Jim out of the former Savaii members voted for her. Congrats on winning Survivor, Sophie.

Next season: Survivor - One World
This looks interesting. It will be set in Samoa yet again. I miss having exotic locales like Gabon and China and Fiji. However, the two tribes will be in one camp, so I think a cross-tribe alliance will emerge, sort of like in Tocantins when two people got sent to Exile (one from each tribe) and formed an alliance. There will be no more Redemption Island and no returning players, which is good, because that was getting old. Finally, I hope there will be only ONE Immunity Idol that either tribe can find. Should be fun!

Predicting the Rest of Survivor South Pacific - Final 8

Well folks, I did this for Survivor Nicaragua (I didn’t for Survivor Redemption Island), but I feel like doing it again for Survivor South Pacific. I’m talking about making predictions for the rest of the game around the Final 7 part. When I did this for Survivor Nicaragua, I correctly predicted that Fabio would win the game, but unfortunately I didn’t get a ton else right. Also, the addition of Redemption Island makes this a bit tougher, but I’ll do my best. So like last time, I will discuss each castaway and their chances of winning this game.

- John “Cochran” Cochran
He betrayed his tribe then got betrayed by the tribe he switched to. Stings, doesn’t it? Poor old Cochran got what he had coming to him. He said he didn’t want to put his fate into a “game of chance”, but Survivor, like many games, is about taking risks. He just took the wrong one. As for his current situation, Cochran just downright fails when the pressure is on him, regardless of the challenge, while his opponent, Ozzy, excels. Cochran will be ousted from Redemption Island next.
Predicted finish: 8^th

- Oscar “Ozzy” Lusth
Ozzy has played a risky game so far, voluntarily sending himself to Redemption Island. Then he gets sent again, and has to beat at least 5 or 6 people just to get back in the game. But I don’t think he will. I think his luck will run out. He’ll beat Cochran, but I think he’ll lose to his next competition.
Predicted finish: 7^th

- Brandon Hantz
Brandon has been such a drama queen, to put it plain. First, he swears he won’t tell anyone he’s Russell Hantz’s nephew, but then an episode or two later, he reveals it to his whole tribe. I think the tribe will get sick of his antics and his dramatics and boot him next, maybe even before Edna.
Predicted finish: 6^th

- Edna Ma
She has played a typical coattail rider game, riding along Coach’s coattail the entire time. Coach may fight for her, but nobody else will and Coach will get outnumbered. Sure, she’d be a good person to take to the Final 3 possibly, but you never know with Edna. She’s a little mischievous and could garner some votes if she went to the Finals.
Predicted finish: 5^th

- Albert Destrade
Albert will be next because he’s a threat, not only to get votes, but to win immunity. He has also been a little conniving by almost going through with plans to backstab his allies. I don’t think Coach, Rick, or even Sophie will take him to the finals.
Predicted finish: 4^th

- Rick Nelson
Man has this guy played a quiet game so far. I think he’ll be in the finals with Coach and Sophie by mainly being a non-factor and probably not getting any votes at the Final Tribal Council. He really should have made more of a name for himself. I was rooting for him because he was the “fan’s” pick to be on the show after he submitted a video for the contest, like I did.
Predicted finish: 3^rd

- Coach Wade
I really don’t see any Upolu members trying to take out Coach before the finals—none are gutsy enough. I think Coach will get to the Finals and he will get votes, but I think he will finish as the runner-up. I think too many of the former Savaii tribe members will be pissed that his tribe beat them, and they will vote “against” him because he was their “leader”. It will be close, but I think he’ll just miss the title of Sole Survivor. Perhaps he’ll piss someone off (Brandon, Albert, or Edna).
Predicted finish: 2^nd

- Sophie Clarke
My predicted winner of Survivor South Pacific is Sophie! She has played a really smart game so far, sticking with her alliance but also making sure her voice was heard. She has proved to be a threat in challenges and I think the former Savaii members will see her as the lesser of three evils. One, she’s a girl, and two, she played enough of a game but not too much. Sophie Clarke will be the winner of Survivor South Pacific.
Predicted finish: 1^st

So my predicted finish:
8^th: Cochran
7^th: Ozzy
6^th: Brandon
5^th: Edna
4^th: Albert
3^rd: Rick
2^nd: Coach
1^st: Sophie

Just for good measure, how I predict the jury members to vote:
Jim: Sophie
Keith: Sophie
Dawn: Sophie
Whitney: Sophie
Cochran: Coach
Ozzy: Coach
Brandon: Coach
Edna: Coach
Albert: Sophie

And of course, Rick with no votes. I will review these predictions once the season is over. Go Sophie!