One of the most anticipated seasons of Survivor in recent memory is the upcoming season, season 40, titled "Winners at War". For the first time, the cast will be comprised entirely of players who have won the game before. This has long been rumored to be a season, and for their 40th, Survivor is going all out. And for the first time, they are offering up $2 million as the grand prize for the winner. I'm very excited for this season, the most excited I have been probably since Heroes vs. Villains. I'm going to go over each contestant, their chances, and what I expect from them, and then at the end, give them a range in which I think they'll be voted out. (In parentheses)
First though, I wanted to say I think there will be a divide between new school and old school players. People like Ethan, Rob, Amber, Danni, Yul, Parvati, and Tyson have known each other for many years (at least ten), while newer players like Wendell, Nick, Michelle, Adam, and Sarah haven't known everyone for quite as long. I think the old school people will stick together and the new school people will stick together. I can only hope there's somewhat of a mix when we get far into the game, and the new school people don't just pick them off one by one. By my count, there are eight players who played in a season in the first ten years (up until Heroes vs. Villains), and twelve who did not. If those twelve band together (six per tribe?), they could pick off the older players one by one.
Anyway, here's the list of previous winners on Winners at War, sorted alphabetically by first name:
Adam Klein: Adam is definitely a strong strategic player and may be identified as so early. It's been a trend in recent seasons that strong strategic threats are just as dangerous, if not more so, than strong physical (challenge) threats. He could be an early boot, but if he makes the right alliance could go far. (11-5)
Amber Mariano: One of two Survivors that hasn't played in over 15 years, Amber will instantly be a target, not just because of her and Rob, but because she's won an All-Stars season before. It will be interesting to see how she holds up, as I expect her and Rob will be on opposite tribes at first. I don't expect her to get far, and to be honest I'd be surprised if she made it to the merge. (20-14)
Ben Driebergen: Everyone knows Ben's story. He was saved by a twist in the game, a twist many fans think was put in for the purpose of saving him. He's obviously likable, and I don't see him making it to the final tribal council. I expect him to be voted out near the merge, as he would probably be labeled a threat to win. (13-8)
Danni Boatwright: How will players who haven't played in over a decade fare? Well, Danni is one of them. She, like Amber, has had kids since her season, so that could put her at a disadvantage physically, as well as making her out to be a threat to win. She could be an early boot or make it far, depending on how well she holds up and who she makes alliances with. (18-12)
Denise Stapley: The woman who holds the record for amount of Tribal Councils attended in a season, she'll need to have better luck this time or she will be voted out for people thinking she is bad luck for a tribe. After all, in Heroes vs. Villains, Stephanie was basically voted out for that reason. I think Denise will make it to the merge if her tribe does okay, but after that I'm not sure. (13-8)
Ethan Zohn: The true Survivor. This will be his first time playing since his cancer scare/diagnosis, and he definitely will be a threat to win. I think it will be very hard for him to make it far in this game, as who wouldn't vote for a cancer survivor in the final tribal council? (19-14)
Jeremy Collins: I think Jeremy is the dark horse of the season. People will be so focused on getting other people out that he will slip by. He's a really good all-around player, and people may forget how dangerous he can be late in the game. I think he'll make it far. However, I noticed he is the only male to ever win an "All-Stars" type season, so if people realize that he could be in trouble. (9-4)
Kim Spradlin: Kim is probably the one I remember least, so please forgive me. I think she'll make it further than most females, as she won't be considered a threat for any reason. (10-4)
Michele Fitzgerald: She played five years ago, and is the second most-recent female winner. I think she could make it far, depending on the alliances she forms. I like her chances. (8-2)
Natalie Anderson: For some reason I have a strong feeling she is on the jury. I can't explain it. She could be underestimated, but she could also be an early boot. Hard to say. I'll say somewhere in the middle. (12-6)
Nick Wilson: Will the recent winners be early targets? If they are, Nick could be in trouble. If not, I can see him making it far, perhaps forming an alliance with some more recent winners (Wendell, Michele, Sarah). (7-2)
Parvati Shallow: Like Amber, she's technically won an All-Stars season, so I think she will be an early target. Like Amber and Danni, she's also had kids since the show. People will know she can win over a jury, so I'd be shocked if she got close to the end. (18-12)
Rob Mariano: Survivor's golden boy! Boy, he's gonna have his work cut out for him. If there's a Survivor Mount Rushmore, him and his Red Sox cap are on it. Will this go the way similar to Redemption Island, or Heroes vs. Villains? Oddly, Rob has never been part of a jury, and I would love to see him there. (13-8)
Sandra Diaz-Twine: Now, she's the only two-time winner, but here's what I think her strategy will be: She'll convince people that no one will vote for her in the final tribal council and she won't get any votes. If she isn't able to convince people of that, she'll be an early target. But if she can, she could go far, but I'm sure there will be people who won't want her even sniffing the final tribal. Could go either way, but I think people won't care and will want her gone. (20-14)
Sarah Lacina: The most recent female winner of Survivor (still), Sarah has a good shot to go far, I think. I don't see her being labeled as a threat, at least not early. She's got a real good shot, and if I had to put my money on a handful of Survivors who could win this season, she'd probably be one of them. (7-1)
Sophie Clarke: I honestly think she's one of the weaker winners. She went against Albert and Coach in the final tribal council, neither of whom are deserved winners themselves. But that doesn't mean she can't do well in this season. Nobody is going to consider her a threat, and if she makes the right alliance, she could go far. (8-3)
Tony Vlachos: Tony is the quintessential Survivor target now having won. He also can rub people the wrong way. He and Sarah have an iffy relationship so we'll see how that goes. I don't see him making it far, maybe even a pre-merge boot. (18-12)
Tyson Apostol: Tyson is one of my favorite Survivors ever, and I hope he goes far. I think he will so long as he doesn't get down in numbers. Jury at the least, I bet. (11-6)
Wendell Holland: The only Survivor to win on a tie-breaking vote is this man. He's a good all-around player and I don't see him being a target early. I'd love to see him get far again. Here's hoping he will. (7-1)
Yul Kwon: Yul's smarts and wisdom will make him an early target. I could see him being an early boot or making it fairly far. Hard to say, but I think he'll manage to talk his way out of being voted out at least once. (18-12)
So that's what I think of everyone. Remember, only one male has won an All-Stars type season (Jeremy). The rest have been females (Amber, Parvati, Sandra, Sarah). Will that trend continue or will a man win?
Just for fun, I will predict their boot order, keeping in mind everyone's ranges I gave them. I bet I will be pretty close on a few of these.
20. Amber
19. Ethan
18. Sandra
17. Parvati
16. Tony
15. Yul
14. Danni
13. Ben
JURY
12. Denise
11. Rob
10. Natalie
9. Tyson
8. Kim
7. Adam
6. Jeremy
5. Sophie
4. Michele
FINAL THREE
3. Nick
2. Wendell
1. Sarah
That's right, I have Sarah winning Survivor: Winners at War. I could see an alliance of Sarah, Wendell, Nick and Michele. I think Nick and Wendell would kind of cancel each other out in the final tribal council, allowing Sarah to claim the title of Sole Survivor (again). I also have a lot of the older veteran players as early boots (Amber, Ethan, Sandra, Parvati, Yul), unfortunately.
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