Why the Seahawks Won't Make Anything of Their 2020 Season

After the Seahawks week 13 loss to the New York "Football" Giants, I was pretty darn upset.  Just ask Amanda.  The Seahawks lost by a score of 17-12 in a game they definitely should have won.  It was their first home loss of the season, and their first loss to an opponent with a losing record.  The reason I was so upset is because it has made the path to the Super Bowl so much harder for the Seahawks.  I will explain.

The Seahawks have made the playoffs every year except for one in the past eight seasons.  However, the Seahawks have not made it to the conference championship game nor won consecutive playoff games since the 2014-15 season.  That's six years of being a lower tier playoff team.  And honestly, I'm not content with that anymore.  We have absolute stars at quarterback, linebacker, safety, and one in the making at wide receiver.  We need to take advantage of this while we can.

Obviously, the season is not over.  Anything can happen.  If the Hawks win their last four games, they will win the NFC West and clinch at least the #3 seed, with a slim chance at an even higher seeding.  But I'm a realist, and I'm not expecting that to happen.  

The most likely scenario is the Seahawks will lose to either Washington, the Rams, or the 49ers.  (Don't even get me started on the Jets).  All three of those teams boast pretty good defenses.  And right now, our offense is struggling to get back on track.  The Rams, the Seahawks' biggest competition for the division, have a pretty easy remaining schedule, with games against the Jets and struggling Cardinals remaining, as well as facing the Hawks and Patriots.  If the Hawks lose once (especially if it's against the Rams), the odds of winning a division title aren't great.

We've seen what happens to the Seahawks when they don't win a division title.  They might win a wild card game.  Even if they do, they don't make it past the divisional round.  They always fall apart in the road playoff game against a superior opponent, whether it be Green Bay, Dallas, Atlanta, or Carolina.

That's the worst case scenario.  The best case scenario is the Hawks win out and go into the playoffs on a four game winning streak.  That most likely still results in only a #3 seed.  Green Bay is the Hawks competition for the #2 spot, and their only real tough game remaining is against Tennessee.  So even if the Packers lose that game, they still maintain a better conference record than the Seahawks and win the tiebreaker.

So as a #3 seed, the Hawks would face the #6 seed.  Possibly Tampa Bay or the Rams.  A win there is not guaranteed, but for the sake of argument, let's say the Hawks win.  And assuming the #2 seed wins, the Hawks would then travel to them.  Oh wait, that's Green Bay.  We saw what happened last year.  It was close, but the Hawks still lost.  And I think Green Bay in their second year under Matt LeFleur is even better this year.  They won't finish with a better record than last season, but their point differential of +80 is already better than their +63 point differential of last season.  Assuming they don't completely fall apart to end the year, this Green Bay team is better than last year's team.

The point I'm making is that it would take a near miraculous run for the Hawks to do anything of note this season.  And by "of note", I mean get further than they have the past five seasons.  Unless they get a lot of help, it would take the Hawks winning their last four games, plus a home playoff game against a tough opponent PLUS a road playoff game, probably against the Packers, to do better this season than last.  And based on recent history, why should we expect anything different?

That loss to the Giants has made it very hard for the Seahawks to get the #1 seed and even hard to get the #2 seed.  Those are the only seeds guaranteed at least two home playoff games (if you win the first).  We know the Hawks play better at home, and to ask them to win on the road in January is a monumental task.  

I will say this: The Hawks have the leaders in place to pull off the miraculous.  They have Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, and head coach Pete Carroll.  They've all "been there, done that."  They know what it takes in January.  If I had to pick a potential #3 seed or lower to make a run to the Super Bowl, I'd pick the Hawks.  But in the past decade or so, 90+% of the Super Bowl teams have been #1 or 2 seeds.

It's doable, but I'm not going to hold my breath.  If the Hawks end up even getting to the NFC Championship Game, please call me out and I will apologize and say how wrong I was.  But I don't see that happening.