Organized Thoughts about the Russell Wilson Trade

I'm still in shock from the trade that was announced earlier today: Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos.  It seems like today's a dream that I need to wake up from.  I thought of all the ways I could have put my thoughts into words, and I decided the best way would be to ask myself (and answer) questions regarding this trade and the impact it will have on the future.

Hey there, future Brian here (Nov. 2023).  I thought I'd comment on my takes about this trade now that we've seen 1.5 seasons out of Russ and seen the Seahawks without him.

Who do you think will win this trade in the long run?

Honestly, the Broncos.  Usually, the team that acquires the star player wins the trade.  The times that they don't win the trade are because the star player completely flops on his new team or has off the field issues.  That will not happen with Russell Wilson.  

And given the Seahawks track record for drafting, it's unlikely they'll draft anyone in the next few years that has near the impact that Russ had in Seattle.  And it's unlikely any of the players the Seahawks acquired (Lock, Fant, Harris) will improve their game enough to give the Seahawks an edge.

Yikes!  Well Russ for the most part has "flopped".  And the Seahawks drafting has gotten a lot better in the last couple of years.  We got Charles Cross, Boye Mafe, and Devon Witherspoon out of the draft from those draft picks, among others.  I think the Hawks win this trade now.

How well do you think Russell will do in Denver?

It's hard to say.  I've only ever seen Russell in Seattle.  I don't think he's going to have a crazy amount of success, especially given the division and conference he will play in.  I see him having one, maybe two seasons where he and the Broncos make a legitimate run at a Super Bowl.  But seeing as he will likely command a new contract in a year or two, I don't see the Broncos being able to keep a bunch of talent around him (the problem the Seahawks would have ended up facing).

First off, Russ re-signed with the Broncos before even playing a snap.  Anyway, it's getting harder to see a Super Bowl run from him and the Broncos, especially considering their stiff competition in the AFC.  

What will the Seahawks do at quarterback?

The Seahawks did acquire Drew Lock from the Broncos, but he has been lackluster so far.  He will be given a shot in training camp, but the Hawks will very likely bring another (or two) quarterback in to compete with him.  The Hawks do now have the 9th overall pick, and they could take Kenny Pickett with that selection, or they could wait until next year's draft, when the QB class is supposed to be even better.  

I think the Hawks will acquire a veteran free agent to compete with Lock and try to rely upon the running game in 2022.  

I'm laughing at the idea of the Hawks taking Kenny Pickett with the 9th overall pick last year.  So glad we didn't.  I didn't even mention Geno Smith, who I assumed was leaving and had not re-signed at that point yet.  YIKES again.

Are the players the Seahawks got any good?

Kind of.  As I mentioned, Drew Lock has been lackluster, but was a first round pick who could benefit from a change of scenery.  He's a solid backup at the very least.

Noah Fant is an above average tight end who does a bit of everything pretty well.  He is still young and could develop into one of the better tight ends in the NFC.

Shelby Harris isn't young for an NFL player (30), but he's a borderline pro-bowl defensive lineman who will instantly become a starter and could start for a few seasons.

They've been solid.  Lock hasn't really had much opportunity, but Fant has done well with limited targets.  I wish we'd target him more.  Harris only played one year for us.  

Why did the Hawks trade Wilson?

Was Russ unhappy?  Not really.  But he wasn't the happiest he could be.  Slowly over the past 7-8 years, the Hawks have regressed, particularly on defense and the offensive line.  Russ knew if he had more talent around him, he'd have multiple Super Bowls instead of just the one.  The Hawks front office failed to surround him with even an average offensive line in the last 5-7 seasons and the defense has regressed every year in the past five.  

But the reason the Hawks traded Wilson largely comes down to money.  He had two more years left on his contract, and the rate for a top-flight quarterback was getting extremely steep.  We saw Aaron Rodgers just re-sign with the Packers for $50 million a year.  Russell would have commanded just as much if not more.  I'm not sure if the Hawks currently have the room for that, but they certainly don't have room to keep all of their stars AND Russ.  

Unfortunately, the NFL is a business.  The Hawks, realizing that they were sinking millions into Wilson and not getting championships, decided to cut their losses.  Wilson, essentially, was a sunk cost.  He was a part of a business that was requiring too much money, and the Seahawks decided to trade or "sell" their asset and start over.  I understand the move from a business perspective, but the problem I also see is that Wilson is more than an "asset".  12s everywhere had emotional ties to him, and trading him is more than selling an asset.

I also want to say that I bet Pete, John, Shane, and the rest probably saw the start of Russ regressing.  I think they figured he would not be able to retain his level of play into his mid to late 30's.  They really traded him at the perfect time, because I bet his 2022 season in Seattle, had he not been traded, would not have gone well.

Do the Hawks even have a chance of winning in the near future?

I mean, any team theoretically does.  But the Hawks chances did get slimmer.  The offseason is still very young, and we will have to wait and see what Pete and John do the rest of this offseason, particularly at the quarterback spot.  If they can get a quick fix at the quarterback position, there's hope.  

I'm leaning towards the Hawks not trying too hard to win in 2022 (also known as "tanking") and try to get a high draft pick in 2023 to use on a quarterback.  If Schneider wheels and deals effectively enough, the Hawks could go through a re-build in just a couple years.  They have a lot of trade-able assets that they could get even more draft capital from.  

YIKES again.  Actually, our chances got better in 2022 and we made the playoffs.  We might make it again in 2023.  I keep thinking the Hawks are going to draft a quarterback, when they really don't need to.  Even if Geno gets hurt or struggles, we have Lock, who is at least capable.

What will happen to Pete Carroll?  Is he going to stick it out much longer?

Hard to say as I can't read his mind, but given that he's the oldest coach in the league, he has to be thinking of retirement as a possibility after every season.  He does have the most youthful energy of any coach in their 60s or older, to say the least.

Pete had to have been in on the discussions with Schneider on the trade of Wilson.  And he's likely already thought of how trading Wilson affects his future.  

Don't forget that 2021 was the hardest of Carroll's Seahawks career, and it might depend on how 2022 goes to see if he will even coach one more season after that.  

Pete obviously knew he had a good chunk of years left.  He's found the fountain of youth, at least concerning his energy.  I think he'll coach until he feels he can't summon the energy anymore, which could be into his mid-70s if not late 70s.  

How can John Schneider save his reputation now?  Is there any way his tenure with the Hawks has a happy ending?

If Schneider is in this for the long run, there's definitely a chance.  And if he's in it for the long run, he will likely be tasked with finding Carroll's successor and using this draft capital he just acquired effectively.  

If he can never recover and build the Seahawks into a perennial playoff team like they were with Wilson, he will not have a happy ending.  He would then likely leave the team with many Hawks fans holding resentment towards him stemming back to this trade.  

We can't also forget the Jimmy Graham and Jamal Adams trades, two trades he made that at this point we can safely call failures.  He risked draft capital for star players, and it hurt the Hawks. 

Now he's done the opposite, trading a star player for draft capital.  If he can use that draft capital successfully, that will help the Hawks immensely in the coming years and he could save face and leave with his head held high.  It's all on him.

I think I can say the Wilson trade makes up for the lackluster trades of the past like Harvin, Graham, and Adams.  Schneider's reputation is fine, and whenever he leaves, he'll likely leave having been the most successful front office executive in team history.

What about the rest of the players on the Hawks?  One, are they at risk of being traded, and two, are their morales hurt after this trade?

To answer the first question, it depends on if the Hawks are fully rebuilding or not.  If they are, then one could argue any of them are at risk of being traded.  If Russ can be traded, anyone can.  

To answer the second question, they likely will feel a sting from this, but if Schneider brings in a respectable leader at the quarterback position, morale may not take too big of a hit.  But the ones that have been with Russ the longest (Bobby, Tyler) will certainly not feel the same anymore.

Turns out, Geno's leadership abilities are more than enough.  No one else was really at risk of being traded since they weren't tanking.  

How will we look back on this trade?

It will depend on the outcome for the two teams in the coming years.  I'll go through all four scenarios:

If the Broncos and Hawks both find success in the coming years, it'll be a win-win.  Schneider and the Broncos will both be heralded for the trade, as it will have seemed that Russell Wilson just needed a fresh start, and the Hawks were handicapped by his immense salary.

If the Broncos have success but the Hawks do not, the Broncos will be heavily lauded for the move, and Schneider and the Hawks will be ridiculed.  Everyone will realize that trading star quarterbacks is almost never a wise move, and the Hawks were foolish to do so, even if it saved them money.  Schneider will go down in Seahawks infamy.

If the Seahawks have success but the Broncos do not, Schneider will be considered a genius.  He would have gotten out of an even larger contract with Wilson and would have managed to rebuild the Hawks once again.  Meanwhile, Russ will be looked at the guy that won a Super Bowl while having the Legion of Boom, but couldn't at any point after, definitely lowering his legend status.  

If neither team finds success, the trade will be looked it as a push.  The Broncos will be thought of poorly for mortgaging their future for a QB that couldn't even get back to the NFC championship game after 2014-15, and the Hawks will look bad as well for having traded their star quarterback for a bunch of okay players and draft capital.  

Ultimately, this trade is going to take time.  Time to figure out who won the trade, but first off, time to digest and comprehend what has really happened: that Russell Wilson is no longer a Seahawk.

I think right now the option of the Seahawks having success but the Broncos not is the option we have in reality.  Russ is starting to maybe look like a QB that won a Super Bowl with a legendary defense, but that's it.  Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer also did that.