Determining Through Process of Elimination Who Will Win Survivor 50

 Survivor 50 is just more than a month away, and I thought I'd attempt to determine the winner of this upcoming season by process of elimination.  Basically, I'm slowly going to exclude players in groups or one by one until I'm down to one.  At one point, I will say which group I think the winner will almost assuredly come from, but I will still narrow down all the way to one.  This will be fun to go back to once the season is over to see how close I was, and what metric may have eliminated the winner (when it shouldn't have).

As a refresher, here are the players, in order of first appearance on Survivor:
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty, Colby Donaldson, Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick, Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Coach Wade, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Angelina Keeley, Mike White, Rick Devens, Jonathan Young, Emily Flippen, Dee Valladares, Tiffany Ervin, Q Burdette, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, Joe Hunter, Kyle Fraser, Rizo Velovic, Savannah Louie

Now I'm going to eliminate them based on things that typically winners do not exemplify. 

The first thing I'm going to eliminate is the known final tribal goats.  These players are either laughingstocks or not taken seriously, and haven't necessarily made a final tribal council, but if they did, they got at most 1 vote.  Now, if someone did get to a final tribal council and got 1 or 0 votes, that doesn't necessarily mean they will be kicked out here.  It's based on whether I think they can change.

With that, we will eliminate Stephanie, Angelina, Mike, Jonathan, Q, and Joe.  Considered Chrissy, but I feel like she could make a better FTC case.

That leaves the remaining group at Jenna Lewis-Dougherty, Colby Donaldson, Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Coach Wade, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Rick Devens, Emily Flippen, Dee Valladares, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, Kyle Fraser, Rizo Velovic, and Savannah Louie.

Now I probably should've done this from the start, but the second thing we are eliminating potential winners from is if they were a previous winner.  I can't see a single winner being allowed to get to the end.  And if they did, I can't see a jury re-rewarding them.  So that kicks out Dee, Kyle, and Savannah.  

That leaves us with Jenna Lewis-Dougherty, Colby Donaldson, Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Coach Wade, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Rick Devens, Emily Flippen, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, and Rizo Velovic.

Next we are going to take out players that haven't played too recently.  Here is how many seasons passed between a returning player's win and their previous season: 6, 4, 13, 2, 3, 7, 2, 6, 6.  Sandra was the outlier at 13.  But no one has ever won with more than 13 seasons separating them from their previous season.  However, Survivor has been slack on the returning player seasons in recent years, so I'll be a little lax myself and allow back to 34, Game Changers.  So I am going to have to eliminate Jenna, Colby, and Coach.  

That leaves us with Cirie Fields, Ozzy Lusth, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Christian Hubicki, Rick Devens, Emily Flippen, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, Kamilla Karthigesu, and Rizo Velovic.

I'm going to eliminate Rizo.  People haven't seen his game, and even if he somehow manages to sneak his way to the end (unlikely), he's likely not beating more experienced/likable players.  So we are down to 11.  

In what will perhaps be the hardest round for me personally, I'm going to have to eliminate the final tribal council darlings.  These are players that are just too likable for their own good.  So that will eliminate Cirie, Christian, and Rick Devens.  I recall seeing a video Jeff posted after 50 finished shooting, and he didn't seem too thrilled/excited for the result, which leads me to believe these three did not win.

That leaves us with the 8 of Ozzy Lusth, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Emily Flippen, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, Genevieve Mushaluk, and Kamilla Karthigesu.  

Now I'm going to eliminate those who wouldn't be taken to the end, and can't win fire or immunity easily.  That eliminates Emily and Kamilla.  I don't think either has a good path to get to the end.

We are left with the 6 of Ozzy Lusth, Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, and Genevieve Mushaluk.  

Now I'm going to eliminate Ozzy.  Sorry Ozzy.  One, it's been 16 seasons since he played, and two, he has never shown the strategic or social acumen to win.  He's a likely target around the merge like was in Game Changers.  

That leaves us with Aubry Bracco, Chrissy Hofbeck, Tiffany Ervin, Charlie Davis, and Genevieve Mushaluk.  This is the group I think the winner is almost for sure coming from.  But now I have to make some tough calls.  From this point on, I think I will likely eliminate the winner if I haven't already.  And I'm going to go one by one at this point, with a brief explanation for each.  

Tiffany is out.  Do people want Tiffany to be the Winner of 50?  I can't see it.  

Charlie is next out.  He was the last man standing for me.  He's too big a threat, nearly winning and showing skill in all phases of the game.

Aubry is next out.  She has slowly gotten worse each time playing, and she is a known social/strategic threat.  

That leaves us with Chrissy and Genevieve.  And I'm going to eliminate Chrissy.  She has a great story, but I think she's a bit too old, might be sniped early, etc.  Too many things could go wrong for her.  That leaves Genevieve Mushaluk of Survivor 47 as my winner pick!  Crazy as it might seem, she's going fly under the radar and then make a great case at final tribal.  I'm curious to see if I'll be right on this one.  I'll do my Survivor 50 Preview and Predictions when it gets closer, but it looks like my winner pick will indeed by Genevieve.