We have a new season of Survivor, the most anticipated since Winners at War, and with that, I have to do a new Four Word Game. If you're new, it's where I (in the past) would talk about a player's game in four words, such as "Needs to find idol". I would elaborate on it, however, in case the four words were not clear enough.
For 50, I decided to only do Four Word Games for each tribe rather than each player. It would be a lot to do it for each player each week. I will do two word games for each tribe, and I'll try to mention each player at least once. I will also continue to do four word games for each player who leaves the game. And, I will go back to going over each player once we get to the merge episode, even if we merge at 15 players or so.
And, after this, I will indeed rank all remaining players, even when there are 20+ left in the game. So, without further ado...
AFTER EPISODE ONE FOUR WORD GAME
Cila: Nerd alliance is amazing / Lines not fully clear
The Cila tribe, the one we saw go to Tribal Council, had some interesting groupings. First off, was what I'm calling the "nerd alliance" of Christian, Devens, and Emily. It was too perfect. Plus, seeing Christian and Devens fawn over each other was TV gold. I live for that bromance. But other than that, the alliance lines on this tribe are not fully clear, since the Jenna vote off was unanimous. It seemed like potentially Joe and Savannah were with her, but it appears they decided not to go down sinking with her. So to me, we have the nerd alliance, Joe and Savanah, and Ozzy and Cirie. Which group will be targeted next? Also, I wanted to throw out there, there were two subtle hints to Ozzy possibly hurting his back during the supplies challenge, so that's something to keep an eye on.
Kalo: Cohesion not clear yet / Girls group in trouble
We didn't see too much cohesion in this tribe, with the most notable grouping being the girls alliance, which also happens to be the three minorities on the tribe in Kamilla, Dee, and Tiff. If they're too tight, they could be in huge trouble. We saw Coach bond with Jonathan and Chrissy, Mike bond with the girls, so it'll be interesting to see how the groups shake out once they go to tribal, because with how many boots we need to get through, they are definitely going to tribal council. If the girls can bring in Mike and maybe Charlie, they can run this tribe.
Vatu: Rotten luck for most / Great together, not individually
Vatu is the most interesting tribe to me. Somehow, the five-person alliance of Colby, Steph, Kyle, Q, and Genevieve went from having five votes to two votes in the span of one episode--without EVER having gone to tribal council. Crazy! That's just rotten luck. Colby and Q lost votes, and Kyle got medevaced. Colby will have to bring in Rizo, but their first tribal should be interesting. They seem to be doing very well at the tribe challenges, but individually, they are terrible, with Q and Colby each losing their respective "journeys".
And to our departed players...
Jenna: Too hard too fast
Jenna played too hard too fast, throwing out Cirie's name before they had even competed in an immunity challenge. She should've slow played her game, built bonds with other people than Cirie, and Cirie is a possible first boot. It's a shame the Borneo representative is gone first, but someone had to be.
Kyle: Was positioned so well
It's a shame for Kyle. A lot of fans pegged the winners as early boots, but Kyle was positioned so well on his tribe and did tremendously at the start. I didn't see too much of a sentiment to get winners out, so Kyle was possibly going to be golden. It's a shame what happened to his Achilles. Let's hope he gets a third shot a few years from now.
And now my rankings! So, I didn't officially rank all 24 players before the season started, so I won't have any "movement" from them. But I will say some players have already made jumps for me while others have fallen.
22. Q
21. Rizo
20. Savannah
19. Angelina
18. Chrissy
17. Mike
16. Jonathan
15. Ozzy
14. Coach
13. Stephenie
12. Dee
11. Cirie
10. Charlie
9. Colby
8. Kamilla
7. Tiffany
6. Aubry
5. Joe
4. Devens
3. Emily
2. Christian
1. Genevieve
"What about Genevieve?!" I started with Aubry was my #1, but Genevieve is now my new #1. It worries me she already lost a close ally in Kyle, but I bet she will recover. The nerd alliance makes up the rest of my Top 4. Aubry falls to 6 for me. I think she had a pretty bad premiere episode. Ozzy and Coach aren't too high--I worry about them both physically. There's Ozzy's back, and there was a snippet in the preview for Episode 2 showing Coach struggling.
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Survivor 50 FOUR WORD GAME
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Survivor 50 Preview and Predictions!
Tier one will be winner contenders. These are the players I expect to vie for the 50 crown. I will be fairly surprised if the winner is not in this tier.
Tier two will be somewhat long-shot winner contenders. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the winner came from this tier, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it, either. There is typically one thing with each player in this tier that will hold them back from winning.
Tier three will be the actual longshots. These players are very likely not winning, but if crazy things happened and they played well, you never know.
Tier four will be the no shots. I would bet money on these players not winning 50. It's not necessarily a zero percent shot (as I'd put Gabler here at the start of 43), but 9 times out of 10, these players stand no shot.
I'm going to go alphabetically, quick thought about each player, and then declare their tier. I'll do my best to divide the tiers evenly, but it will likely not be perfectly even with six in each. At the end, I'll pick my true winner pick from tier one.
I will also go back to this after each week of Survivor with a quick word about my prediction and if they were in the correct tier, with that text being in blue.
Angelina Keely
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
I expect Angelina to try to be taken more seriously in an effort to have a chance at winning. Unfortunately for her, I don't see that being enough, and I think a serious Angelina will rub people the wrong way. She's not completely out of it, but I would be surprised.
Tier THREE
Aubry Bracco
Survivor Kaoh Rong (32), Game Changers (34), and Edge of Extinction (38)
I expect Aubry to improve upon her EoE and GC performances. She has set herself up fairly well by lowering her threat level coming into this season. For that, she is in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Charlie Davis
Survivor 46
The big question will be if Charlie will be able to hide behind the perceived target on him due to him almost winning. I think he might be able to. He's a smart dude. And for that, he's in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Chrissy Hofbeck
Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (35)
Chrissy is coming in as the screwed over queen, being the one that had to deal with the surprise forced firemaking. I think she may fly under the radar and I do think she has a shot. She certainly can make a case at the end this time, given her double mastectomy/cancer scare. But can she warm up to people enough to earn the W?
Tier TWO
Christian Hubicki
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Christian is coming into the game as one of the most likable people. It should be enough for him to avoid being an early merge boot, but he may be one of the larger targets come post-merge. We shall see. I still kinda like his chances. He's almost a lock to win if he makes the end, since he just had a baby and could whip that nugget of information out at the final tribal.
Tier ONE
Cirie Fields
Survivor Panama: Exile Island (12), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), Heroes vs. Villains (20), Game Changers (34)
Can she finally do it? Cirie has always left the game a different way, whether it's Advantage-geddon, idoled out, losing in fire, or being the sole vote at final 3. Cirie in her four times playing has yet to be voted out by a simple plurality vote. She's definitely a front-runner for me, but can she do it?
Tier ONE
Coach Wade
Survivor Tocantins (18), Heroes vs. Villains (20), South Pacific (23)
Coach is coming into 50 as a more mature, subdued player, and I think that bodes well for his chances. I think he has some of the best odds for any male, and if he can fit in and not break promises and own his game at the end, he has a shot.
Tier TWO
Colby Donaldson
Survivor: The Australian Outback (2), All-Stars (8), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
Colby is also coming into the game with a new perspective and strategy. I don't know how well he will handle all the idols and advantages, but I do believe people are not going to want to vote him out easily. I just worry about his ability to handle the modern game.
Tier THREE
Dee Valladares
Survivor 45
Dee is not only coming into 50 as a winner, but arguably the strongest known winner. She will have a lot of work to do to get further than the early merge portion of the game. But if anyone can pull it off, it's Dee. Surprisingly, she's not in my bottom tier, but she can't get hire than Tier three due to her winner status.
Tier THREE
Emily Flippen
Survivor 45
Emily will likely have a low threat level, which should work in her favor. But could she win at the end in front of a jury? I'm on the fence with that one. She's definitely going to be a dark horse winner pick for many.
Tier TWO
Genevieve Mushaluk
Survivor 47
Genevieve will have to work hard to build relationships and win people over since she has very few connections coming into 50. That may work for or against her. Time will tell. I really think Genevieve has great potential as a player, as she gives off Kim Spradlin vibes.
Tier ONE
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Survivor Borneo (1) and All-Stars (8)
Jenna is setting the record for the longest gap (42!) between seasons. But she seems like she'll be ok adjusting to the modern game. She was one of the surprising players who adjusted to the game at the time in All-Stars, so she shows great adaptability. But I do feel like it's been too long and she still has that known distinction of being annoying to other players.
Tier THREE
Finish: 24th / All Jenna had to do was target Cirie... AFTER the challenge. But she just couldn't wait. I think she overestimated how fast the modern game moves. It moves fast, but not in the first few days. I was wrong about her adjusting to the modern game, and she played like a Tier four player.
Joe Hunter
Survivor 48
On one hand, Joe doesn't have a big strategic or social threat level, but on the other hand, it doesn't seem like he's willing to adjust his game from 48 in which he was the final tribal council goat. I think he'll have a good shot of being in the mix come post-merge, but then he's got to make a move and then showcase it at the end.
Tier TWO
Jonathan Young
Survivor 42
Jonathan is known for one thing, and if he cannot make himself known for something else, he has zero shot of winning 50. He can beast challenges all he wants, but in order to win, he will have to make friends, strategize, and make a good strategic move or two. I'm not sure he's capable, ESPECIALLY against these returning players.
Tier FOUR
Kamilla Karthigesu
Survivor 48
Kamilla could very well fly under the radar, but if Kyle makes the merge with her, she's screwed. She has to hope he's gone pre-merge. I don't think anyone will believe she and Kyle wouldn't work together again. But if he is gone, she could fly under the radar. The question is if she can do enough to win without him.
Tier TWO
Kyle Fraser
Survivor 48
Why? Why is he back? I mean I like Kyle and all, but the last season everyone saw was his winning one. He's got zero chance. He may make that case in order to keep him around, but no one is going to feel guilty about voting him out.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 23rd / I definitely didn't have Kyle's chances very high, but he instantly formed a majority on his tribe, and was positioned quite well on a tribe that was doing well in tribal challenges. Unfortunately for him, his achilles took him out. So I did have him in the right tier, technically, but only because of his injury, which I knew nothing about going in.
Mike White
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Mike is another person I am wondering why they are here. Mike is a decent player and a great storyteller, but he's yet another with zero chance of winning. I'll at least enjoy his quips while he's on.
Tier FOUR
Ozzy Lusth
Survivor Cook Islands (13), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), South Pacific (23), Game Changers (34)
I can't imagine a scenario where Ozzy wins. I mean... can he? He certainly can survive a pre-merge. But after that... he might as well just cross his fingers. I'm interested to see how he handles a modern game. I guess you never know. He was one vote away in Cook Islands as a 24-year-old.
Tier THREE
Q Burdette
Survivor 46
Q is too crazy to win Survivor. He just is. He's 95% character and 5% player. He's the new Coach. I want to see some Q antics, but I don't think I'll see them for very long.
Tier FOUR
Rick Devens
Survivor: Edge of Extinction (38)
I go back and forth on Devens. On one hand, he's likable and would easily win over a jury AND there are some likable shields for him (Christian, Cirie, etc.). On the other, he was an early boot that had to return via the Edge and still couldn't get to the end. Apparently, he's practiced fire, but hopefully, he's practiced lowering his threat level, too.
Tier TWO
Rizo Velovic
Survivor 49
Rizo is the big unknown to the other players this season (outside of Savannah), so his chances take an immediate blow. Coach compared him to Russell Hantz, who steamrolled everyone else in HvV because they didn't know his game, either. Rizo's get a HUGE uphill battle.
Tier FOUR
Savannah Louie
Survivor 49
Apparently, everyone will know Savannah won 49, but they won't know all the details, so Savannah is another huge threat and target early. Given her sometimes brash personality... that cannot bode well for her.
Tier FOUR
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Survivor Palau (10), Guatemala (11), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
First off, ICK. If you know, you know. Secondly, Steph has not shown any ability that she knows how to play a modern reality TV game. Just watch her performances in Snakes in the Grass or The Traitors. If I'm ranking these players 1-24 on their chances, she's 23rd at best.
Tier FOUR
Tiffany Nicole Ervin
Survivor 46
I would wager Tiff is coming into the game with perhaps the lowest threat level. That typically is a good thing in a returning player season, but if the big threats get together and target the smaller threats, she is toast. But I don't see that happening. I like Tiff's chances.
Tier ONE
Well, that is everyone! Let's see how the tiers shake out
TIER ONE
Aubry
Charlie
Christian
Cirie
Genevieve
Tiffany
TIER TWO
Chrissy
Coach
Emily
Joe
Kamilla
Rick
TIER THREE
Angelina
Colby
Dee
Jenna
Ozzy
TIER FOUR
Jonathan
Kyle
Mike
Q
Rizo
Savannah
Stephenie
All right, now with that, I'm going to reveal my official winner pick for 50. It's obviously someone in Tier One.
And that is...
AUBRY! She has lowered her threat level tremendously coming into 50, and if she can avoid "having a dialogue" with everyone, she's got a really good chance.
I will likely continue my Four Word Game for 50, but to do it for 24 players the first week, 22 the second, and so on will be very tough. I'll figure something out.
Friday, February 13, 2026
Feelings after a Second Super Bowl Title for the Seahawks
I honestly believe that this defense had a better year than the 2013 Seahawks did. They were dominant against the run, and outside of Puka Nacua, no star players had a good game against the Hawks this past year. The 2013 Hawks were hard-hitting and forced turnovers, while this defense just doesn't allow yards or points. I think the latter is overall better, because they didn't have to rely on turnovers to do well.
I'm just mostly stoked we have a competitive team with likable players. Sam Darnold, our quarterback, is one of the most likable quarterbacks in the league after what he has gone through. Geno Smith had a similar arc and story, but he didn't exude likability. We know that if we build a consistent winner here, Sam will do what it takes to agree to a contract extension when the time comes, rather than demand a high amount that would hurt the team to give out.
What's crazy about this #1 defense is that there aren't really any huge stars on it. Sure, there are Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, and Ernest Jones, all of whom have gotten a Pro Bowl nod, at least second-team All-Pro, or both. But they aren't the marketable defensive stars you see on other teams like TJ Watt, Maxx Crosby, Micah Parsons, Sauce Gardner, or Myles Garrett. They're just a bunch of dudes. It's funny that the best defense in the NFL only had one first-team All-Pro in Williams. It shows the depth of this defense and how well-rounded they are. Some defenses are poor against the pass, run, or both. This team is poor against NOTHING. There is not one situation or type of offense that they are weak against. They can play heavy or light, whatever the situation calls for.
I fully expect this team to continue to build, plug in holes when guys leave or retire, and continue to compete each and every year. And if, worst-case scenario, they have a really bad year, general manager and team president John Schneider has shown he can build a team out given a few top picks, and isn't afraid to dish away a star player to help build a new team.
It's crazy how the trades in recent years were mocked and lauded, only for them to work out swimmingly. First, of course, was the Russell Wilson trade, which netted the Hawks multiple firsts and helped them land their stud left tackle in Charles Cross and a stud corner in Devon Witherspoon. Then, just this past off-season, the trades of DK Metcalf and Geno Smith that netted the Hawks a second and third round pick. The second round pick would eventually (after a trade with Tennessee) net them stud safety Nick Emmanwori, who was a vital contributor on the Super Bowl team. The third round pick netted Jalen Milroe, who is a project QB, but I guarantee the Hawks are not going to just let him walk in a year or two.
Do we have a potential dynasty? Possibly. The key will be if they can establish an identity on offense, and either get an offensive coordinator who will stick around, or establish an identity well enough so that it doesn't particularly matter who the OC is, as long as they stick to the script. I think we're going to see a very competitive team from the Seahawks for the next several years, and I would not be surprised in the slightest if we saw another Super Bowl appearance or win. I think best-case scenario we have a borderline dynasty, one that we could argue is a dynasty or not, similar to the Legion of Boom years in the 2010s.
One thing that is potentially looming is the sale of the team. Rumors have started sprouting about the team possibly going for sale. If you have a good ownership situation, you do not want your team sold, but unfortunately, it will have to happen at some point, due to Paul Allen's passing and his sister Jodi serving as the temporary chairperson. If the Hawks can get a good owner or a good ownership group, we should be ok. I worry that the Hawks could go into someone's hands, like Jeff Bezos, who would only want to use the Hawks to further line his pockets and not be emotionally invested in the team. I'll likely most a post about my thoughts when that happens, so I'll worry about that when the time comes.
Ownership aside, I'm excited for the future. Mike Macdonald will likely be our coach for a long time, and we know he's a good one. And he seems like the kind of guy who isn't set in his ways, and is willing to evolve and change as the NFL game evolves and changes. That's not something I could say about his predecessor. And Sam Darnold, our QB, is already one of the top QB's in team history after just one year, so hopefully, he will grow and evolve as well and be a Seahawk for a long time, too.
Monday, February 9, 2026
2026 New NFL Head Coach Hire Grades
I did this two years ago, when the Seahawks were in the market for a head coach for the first time in 14 years, so I thought I'd do it again with so many openings this off-season. I'll go in order of date hired, and grade each from F to A+. I just went back and re-graded the hirings from two years ago. Some, like Macdonald and Morris, I was spot on about. Others, like Canales and Callahan, I was very wrong about. So it'll be interesting to see what I get right or wrong a few years from now.
Giants hire John Harbaugh: B+
It's funny, I gave his brother's team an "A" for hiring him two years ago. I just feel that in this situation, success is not guaranteed. Harbaugh was treading water in Baltimore, and his players lost faith in him. Why should we think he can turn around a struggling Giants organization? Sure, he'll be better than Daboll as a head coach overall, but New York can be a nasty sports city, and any struggles will be harped on early. But, what else is New York going to do? This is their best bet.
Falcons hire Kevin Stefanski: B
Stefanski is a solid coach. He made the most of what he was given in Cleveland. Unfortunately for him, he goes from one mess of a QB room to another. Can he get the most out of Michael Penix? We know he'll be able to get good seasons out of Bijan, Pitts, and Drake London. Just need to have a solid QB season, and of course, improve the defense. The NFC South is potentially wide open, so it's anyone's for the taking.
Dolphins hire Jeff Hafley: D+
I feel like D+ might even be too nice. Hafley is an uninspiring choice, and it's almost guaranteed that the Dolphins' offense is going to struggle in 2026, whoever the QB is. They might have an above-average defense, but try telling that to the Jets. I will be very surprised if Hafley lasts more than three seasons, if two. He may keep them fairly competitive, but with the Patriots having returned to being competitive, the Bills having Josh Allen and a good roster, and the Jets potentially on their way up, the Fins could be in big trouble the next few years.
Titans hire Robert Saleh: C-
I'll give the Titans this: some defensive coaches do well on a second or third stint. Here are a list of defensive-minded coaches who didn't have success until their second or third team: Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, and to some extent, Mike Vrabel. Is Saleh one of those guys, though? I'd have to say probably not. Saleh already struggled in New York, and now he is tasked with turning around a bottom-feeder in Tennessee. How is Cam Ward expected to succeed? He'll need a great OC to help him, and even if they get one, he may get snatched away in a year or two to become a head coach. Really needed an offensive coach here.
Ravens hire Jesse Minter: B-
I guess this shows the Ravens wish they had kept Macdonald and promoted from within, but too late for that. I'm not entirely sold on Minter being a head coach, because not every up-and-coming coordinator has success; see Saleh, Mike McDaniel, and Aaron Glenn to name a few. But Minter's going to a stable, well-run organization with good ownership. I could see this going either way, but considering the Ravens are well-run enough to have only had three head coaches in 30 seasons, I'd say it'll likely work out.
Steelers hire Mike McCarthy: D-
Feels weird to give an extremely stable organization like the Steelers a "D-", but they deserve it for this hire. On one hand, I am happy for McCarthy, who will be able to coach the team he grew up rooting for. On the other hand, there is an almost zero chance that this ends in something other than disappointment. McCarthy won a Super Bowl in Green Bay with a stud, talented QB and a young team around him. McCarthy benefited from having a great team built by their GM. Ever since, he's been unable to get a team back to a Super Bowl. He will almost undoubtedly be the shortest tenured Steelers head coach ever, and not just because he's starting older than the other coaches were when they left. It's because he's this generation's Jeff Fisher, cashing in on one good year for an entire career. The worst part of this all is that there was no one else wanting to hire him, and there was zero hurry to make this move, yet they hurried to make it. They avoid an "F" because McCarthy, like his predecessor before him, will be able to keep the Steelers competitive, but he will also keep them from winning any trophies.
Bills hire Joe Brady: D+
Let me ask this. When is the last time a team promoted from within, and it worked wonders? I can't think of one. This does not feel like a step forward for the Bills. With the Patriots' resurgence, they needed a coach to offset Mike Vrabel, and they did not get it. Now, they'll likely compete for wild cards on Josh Allen's talent alone. Way to go. This grade is a D+ and not any lower because there is a bit of upside to hiring a younger, offensive mind, as we have seen in recent years. But man, I will be shocked if Joe Brady ever leads them to a Super Bowl. He may not even lead them to a playoff win.
Browns hire Todd Monken: C-
I don't absolutely hate this hire, but Monken was marginal at best as an offensive coordinator, despite having Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Also, a first-time head coach at 60? Basically unheard of these days. There's a chance he can make them slightly competitive, but this is a very uninspiring and unsexy hire. I do like that he comes from a stable organization, ironically, the one that used to be the Browns. But how is he an improvement over Kevin Stefanski? It feels like a downgrade. Monken has more experience, but I don't think there are many fans that consider him a brighter offensive mind. Perhaps he'll be better at handling the chaos in Cleveland.
Cardinals hire Mike LaFleur: C
I'm giving this one a 50/50 shot of working, so a C is the right grade. On one hand, LaFleur could not get a struggling Jets offense to function. On the other hand, it WAS the Jets, and he made the Rams offense look good under Sean McVay. But again, he had McVay to guide him, so how will he do without him? He's going to be tasked to find a way to succeed in the stacked NFC West. My best bet is that he will have one good season (maybe his first or second) and then be coasting on that for a while. Think Zac Taylor in Cincinnati, who, coincidentally, is also a McVay protege.
Raiders hire Klint Kubiak: C+
I mostly hate that this forces the Seahawks to go find their fourth coordinator in the past four seasons. I didn't have 100% faith in Klint the whole season, so it will be interesting to see how he does as a head coach. He does have it in his blood, as his dad, Gary, was a head coach for the Texans and Broncos. I think there's a semi-decent chance this works, but like LaFleur with the Cardinals, Kubiak is going to need some other team to take last place. Will the Chiefs continue falling? Will the Chargers or Broncos take a huge step back? I feel like both are unlikely. If they give Klint some time, this may work. He will have weapons to work with. My #1 piece of advice for their front office is to improve their offensive line and get one receiver weapon for their #1 draft pick to throw to.