We have a new season of Survivor, the most anticipated since Winners at War, and with that, I have to do a new Four Word Game. If you're new, it's where I (in the past) would talk about a player's game in four words, such as "Needs to find idol". I would elaborate on it, however, in case the four words were not clear enough.
For 50, I decided to only do two Four Word Games for each tribe rather than each player. It would be a lot to do it for each player each week. I will continue to do four word games for each player who leaves the game. And, I will go back to going over each player once we get to the merge episode, even if we merge at 15 players or so.
And, after this, I will indeed rank all remaining players, even when there are 20+ left in the game. So, without further ado...
AFTER EPISODE ONE FOUR WORD GAME
Cila: Nerd alliance is amazing / Lines not fully clear
The Cila tribe, the one we saw go to Tribal Council, had some interesting groupings. First off, there was what I'm calling the "nerd alliance" of Christian, Devens, and Emily. It was too perfect. Plus, seeing Christian and Devens fawn over each other was TV gold. I live for that bromance. But other than that, the alliance lines on this tribe are not fully clear, since the Jenna vote off was unanimous. It seemed like potentially Joe and Savannah were with her, but it appears they decided not to go down sinking with her. So to me, we have the nerd alliance, Joe and Savanah, and Ozzy and Cirie. Which group will be targeted next? Also, I wanted to throw out there, there were two subtle hints to Ozzy possibly hurting his back during the supplies challenge, so that's something to keep an eye on.
Kalo: Cohesion not clear yet / Girls group in trouble
We didn't see too much cohesion in this tribe, with the most notable grouping being the girls alliance, which also happens to be the three minorities on the tribe in Kamilla, Dee, and Tiff. If they're too tight, they could be in huge trouble. We saw Coach bond with Jonathan and Chrissy, Mike bond with the girls, so it'll be interesting to see how the groups shake out once they go to tribal, because with how many boots we need to get through, they are definitely going to tribal council. If the girls can bring in Mike and maybe Charlie, they can run this tribe. If not, they are in trouble. Either the girls group will prevail from this tribe, or the Coach/Jonathan/Chrissy group will.
Vatu: Rotten luck for most / Great together, not individually
Vatu is the most interesting tribe to me. Somehow, the five-person alliance of Colby, Steph, Kyle, Q, and Genevieve went from having five votes to two votes in the span of one episode--without EVER having gone to tribal council. Crazy! That's just rotten luck. Colby and Q lost votes, and Kyle got medevaced. Colby will have to bring in Rizo, but their first tribal should be interesting. They seem to be doing very well at the tribe challenges, but individually, they are terrible, with Q and Colby each losing their respective "journeys". How will they handle losing Kyle? Hopefully for them, it's not the start of their downfall as a tribe.
And to our departed players...
Jenna: Too hard too fast
Jenna played too hard too fast, throwing out Cirie's name before they had even competed in an immunity challenge. She should've slow-played her game, built bonds with other people, and if she does that, Cirie is a possible first boot. It's a shame the Borneo representative is gone first, but someone had to be.
Kyle: Was positioned so well
It's a shame for Kyle. A lot of fans pegged the winners as early boots, but Kyle was positioned so well on his tribe and did tremendously at the start. I didn't see too much of a sentiment to get winners out, so Kyle was possibly going to be golden. It's a shame what happened to his Achilles. Let's hope he gets a third shot a few years from now.
And now my rankings! So, I didn't officially rank all 24 players before the season started, so I won't have any "movement" from them. But I will say some players have already made jumps for me, while others have fallen.
22. Q
21. Rizo
20. Savannah
19. Angelina
18. Chrissy
17. Mike
16. Jonathan
15. Ozzy
14. Coach
13. Stephenie
12. Dee
11. Cirie
10. Charlie
9. Colby
8. Kamilla
7. Tiffany
6. Aubry
5. Joe
4. Devens
3. Emily
2. Christian
1. Genevieve
"What about Genevieve?!" I started with Aubry was my #1, but Genevieve is now my new #1. It worries me that she already lost a close ally in Kyle, but I bet she will recover. The nerd alliance makes up the rest of my Top 4. Joe somehow makes my Top 5. He seems to be the kingpin of his tribe. Aubry falls to 6 for me. I think she had a pretty bad premiere episode. Ozzy and Coach aren't too high--I worry about them both physically. There's Ozzy's back, and there was a snippet in the preview for Episode 2 showing Coach struggling. And until I see more legitimate gameplay from Q and Rizo, they will stay near the bottom.
AFTER EPISODE TWO FOUR WORD GAME
Cila: Voted out two bookends / Lacking in tribe cohesion
One thing I noticed was that after Savannah's ouster, they voted out the earliest player and the latest player on their tribe. I wonder if that theme will continue? And it looks like they were going to be the disaster tribe, which is funny because most fans thought it would be Vatu. But there will be a tripe swap next episode, so all bets are off. But this tribe just could not find it in them to work together. The majority of them were pretty screwed if the tribe swap never happens, but it looks like the fans voted for a tribe swap.
Kalo: Lacking in game content / Women almost shut out
This tribe is definitely getting the least amount of content among the three tribes, with Coach, Jonathan, and Mike getting most of it. It's a shame we won't get to see the alliance lines tested. And a crazy stat I saw: The women on Kalo combined for ONE confessional in Episode 2, and it was from Dee. And none of them got a ton in episode 1. It makes me think we may have an underdog female winner out of nowhere like we had in All-Stars with Amber, HvV with Sandra, or Game Changers with Sarah, or perhaps none of them win. We shall see.
Vatu: Looked in bag early / Somehow avoided tribal twice
Crazy how nearly everyone except Aubrey was in on looking through Aubrey's bag, and then a short while after, she receives a boomerang idol from Christian. They just looked too early. It's hard to tell how long after they looked that she received the idol, but I can't wait to see the surprise from one of them when Aubrey whips it out, whether it be to build trust or play it. And then, somehow, the tribe always avoided tribal, even though they just lost Kyle. They lost reward, but still managed to come in first in the immunity challenge, thanks to the great teamwork amongst Rizo, Angelina, and Genevieve. Cila on paper is stronger, but Vatu clearly had better communication and teamwork, which is why they won.
And to our departed player...
Savannah: Needed the best fortune
Savannah needed to be on a tribe that won at least one, if not both of the first two immunities. Unfortunately for her, they lost both, through little fault of her own. She knew coming into this season she'd be a long shot, but could not turn down the offer to play on 50. Don't blame her.
And before I get to the rankings, I want to do a new segment. It's called Player of the Week, where I will pick one player I thought had the best episode. I will do this for every episode UP to the finale (but not including the finale, since obviously the winner will be the player of the week). And before I pick this week's player of the week, I want to mention who would have been my player of the week for episode one. That would have been Ozzy. He had the most confessionals, got Q to "sell" his vote, and got the vote on Jenna over his ally, Cirie. He also did great in the challenges.
And now, for my Episode Two player of the week. That will be... Christian! He may have gone to tribal, but in one episode, he crapped his pants, worked with Joe and had both shots of him through the hammock and him rocking Joe in the hammock, and he fell at tribal on purpose, distracting everyone from Rick planting a fake idol. Pure cinema, as Rizo would say.
I will keep track of the total "PotW" as it shall henceforth be known, to see if the player who wins the most of them ends up winning the season.
Now, for the power rankings:
21. Stephenie (-8)
20. Q (+2)
19. Kamilla (-11)
18. Rizo (+3)
17. Angelina (+2)
16. Chrissy (+2)
15. Dee (-3)
14. Tiffany (-7)
13. Mike (+4)
12. Jonathan (+4)
11. Coach (+3)
10. Ozzy (+5)
9. Charlie (+1)
8. Joe (-3)
7. Colby (+2)
6. Cirie (+5)
5. Emily (-2)
4. Devens (0)
3. Genevieve (-2)
2. Aubry (+4)
1. Christian (+1)
Biggest rise: Ozzy and Cirie (+5), also Mike, Jonathan, and Aubry (+4)
Biggest fall: Kamilla (-11), also Stephenie (-8) and Tiffany (-7)
Steph falls for me. She still has not shown a ton of game acumen, and she likely will be away from Colby, so if her tribe loses after the swap, she is in danger. Kamilla falls a ton as well. Skunked in the confessionals (zero in this episode), and that's very telling since we could have gotten a reaction confessional from her about Kyle being medevaced, but we didn't. Tiff also drops; just not high on her chances post-swap. Ozzy and Cirie move up. I didn't like Cila for them, but even if they get separated, I like their chances of making bonds with other players. Aubry moves up after receiving an idol and having a good episode, and Christian being my player of the week has to be #1 now. He is just so likable and I can't see anyone wanting to blindside him, at least not anytime soon.
AFTER EPISODE THREE FOUR WORD GAME
Cila: A rivalry is brewing / They may not lose
Loved the Rizo/Charlie banter and rivalry that is brewing. The thing is, it's a one-sided rivalry as Charlie wants Rizo gone because Rizo told him he didn't vote for his number one. Why would you do that, Rizo? Crazy. And I just want to see more from this tribe, but they are very well-rounded. They have Kamilla for puzzles, Cirie for social strategy, and Jonathan for strength. Everyone here outside of Cirie is fairly athletic. I can't see them losing.
Kalo: A rivalry is reborn / Women outnumber the men
The Genevieve/Aubry rivalry continues, with them staying together on a tribe, although a different one now. Who will emerge victorious? Time will tell. Didn't love how Coach handled Chrissy, that won't bode well for his long term prospects. And the three older, loyal-focused men in Colby, Joe, and Coach, need to remember that the women outnumber them, so they really should be cozying up to them. I could very easily see Chrissy siding with the other women in a vote.
Vatu: Messy, chaotic, disaster tribe / The trio will triumph
This tribe is not going far. I hate to say it for Christian and Ozzy, who have lost every immunity so far, but I don't think they're winning again without ANOTHER swap. They just voted out one of their stronger players. Here's who is remaining: A 50+ pale man, a lazy 30+ mom, a 30-something nerd, an unathletic near 30-year-old woman, a washed-up 40+ man, and a 40+ mom that isn't as good as she used to be. They are screwed. But, fortunately for the David vs. Goliath trio, they have at least a tie against the trio of Ozzy, Steph, and Emily, so if they stick together, they can be the final ones left standing here.
And to our departed player...
Q: Chaos is very volatile
If you play chaotically, your placement in the game is volatile, meaning: you could go early or you could last a long time. It's a very risky game to play, and I'm sure Q is aware of this. But it's nothing if but entertaining, and he absolutely was worth bringing back.
My episode three player of the week isn't as clear. I considered Kamilla, but she didn't do too much outside the challenge. I'm going to go with a possible surprise: Chrissy! She showed some emotion, got some content, and did well guiding her team in the challenge.
So my PotW tally so far is:
Ozzy: 1
Christian: 1
Chrissy: 1
And now my rankings of all 20 remaining players. Man, when are they going to really get people out of the game? I would've thought we'd have a double/split tribal by now.
20. Stephenie (+1)
19. Rizo (-1)
18. Tiffany (-4)
17. Kamilla (+2)
16. Angelina (+1)
15. Joe (-7)
14. Coach (-3)
13. Ozzy (-3)
12. Emily (-7)
11. Chrissy (+5)
10. Dee (+5)
9. Mike (+4)
8. Jonathan (+4)
7. Cirie (-1)
6. Charlie (+3)
5. Colby (+2)
4. Devens (0)
3. Aubry (-1)
2. Christian (-1)
1. Genevieve (+2)
Biggest rise: Chrissy and Dee (+5)
Biggest fall: Joe and Emily (-7)
Steph is likely the next to go on Vatu. Rizo is the odd man out on his tribe. Tiff only has 2 confessionals in 3 episodes, yikes. Joe falls because I worry if they have to go to tribal, that Joe could be picked off by the women. Emily also falls a bit because she's on a bad tribe, and her closest bond is to Christian, but that's it. Chrissy and Dee rise as underdogs for me. Yes, even Dee. No one is talking about her. Charlie jumps a bit with a good episode. And Gen reclaims the #1 spot for me. I can't see her losing the Aubry battle, and she formed bonds with virtually everyone on her tribe.
AFTER EPISODE FOUR FOUR WORD GAME
Cila: Talent show was entertaining / Surprising zero confessional players
Cila didn't get a ton of content this episode, other than the talent show, which is likely why it was included. Why didn't the women compete, too? I guess they needed a set group of judges. Also, there were three players who got zero confessionals this past episode from this tribe, and they surprised me: Jonathan, Devens, and Cirie. A player who receives zero confessionals in an episode has not won since Season 41. Will that streak continue? Time will tell.
Kalo: Overly glazed Zac Brown / And she finds another!
The main talk of the past episode was Zac Brown and how much screentime he took away from other players. I hope Survivor producers take note of the backlash from this. It didn't help that players like Coach and Genevieve glazed him a ton. And speaking of Genevieve, I cannot believe she found another idol. Unfortunately for her, these are idols she has to give away. But if she plays her cards right, she could end up with one or two of them.
Vatu: Chose to be disaster / Not a cohesive unit
I think the Vatu tribe chose to be the disaster tribe after voting out Q. You don't vote out one of your strongest players in the first vote (post-swap). They were not even close in the challenge. And they're not a cohesive unit, either, especially after this last vote. Angelina and Ozzy will be at odds with the rest, most notably Christian, and Emily, queen of chaos, sticks around. Yikes.
And to our departed player...
Mike: Appeased only one ally
Mike did what he could to appease Angelina, and she was with him. But he didn't with Christian. All he did was remind him of Gabby in DvG. In a way, he set him off. Mike should've known Christian better. He needed to be more tactful and graceful with Christian. Oh well. Another entertaining player gone.
And my player of the week this week is... Genevieve! She found another idol, won immunity and reward with her tribe, and seemed (at least to me) to pull ahead of Aubry. We shall see. My PotW tally:
Ozzy: 1
Christian: 1
Chrissy: 1
Genevieve: 1
And now power rankings! We will finally get a double tribal next week. But for now, still 19 players. Definitely have to move some around. I'm going to denote certain players this week with an asterisk (or two), which I'll explain below.
19. Angelina* (-3)
18. Stephenie* (+2)
17. Tiffany** (+1)
16. Kamilla* (+1)
15. Jonathan* (-7)
14. Emily (-2)
13. Rizo (+6)
12. Joe (+3)
11. Ozzy (+2)
10. Chrissy* (+1)
9. Coach (+5)
8. Devens* (-4)
7. Cirie* (0)
6. Colby (-1)
5. Dee (+5)
4. Charlie (+2)
3. Christian (-1)
2. Aubry (+1)
1. Genevieve (0)
Biggest rise: Rizo (+6), also Coach and Dee (+5)
Biggest fall: Jonathan (-7)
So the asterisk means they had a zero confessional episode. In Tiffany's case, she's had two now. Yikes. Therefore I had to rank most of them at or near the bottom. The bottom 5 I all feel have zero win equity at this point. Chrissy, Devens, and Cirie have some, and they would be higher if not for that zero confessional distinction. Dee takes a huge jump for me. Even as a past winner, I think people are forgetting about her. And she has connections (Kamilla, Tiff, Jonathan). I swapped Christian and Aubry because I feel like Christian's chances took a hit. He either is a huge threat now, or he doesn't have enough allies, or both. Gen remains #1 for me.
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Survivor 50 FOUR WORD GAME
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Survivor 50 Preview and Predictions!
Wow, I have somehow almost forgotten to do a post before Survivor 50. Yikes. I'm going to do this one a bit different, since it's a returning player season, but also because it's 24 players instead of 18. I'm going to tier rank the 24 players into just four tiers.
Tier one will be winner contenders. These are the players I expect to vie for the 50 crown. I will be fairly surprised if the winner is not in this tier.
Tier two will be somewhat long-shot winner contenders. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the winner came from this tier, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it, either. There is typically one thing with each player in this tier that will hold them back from winning.
Tier three will be the actual longshots. These players are very likely not winning, but if crazy things happened and they played well, you never know.
Tier four will be the no shots. I would bet money on these players not winning 50. It's not necessarily a zero percent shot (as I'd put Gabler here at the start of 43), but 9 times out of 10, these players stand no shot.
I'm going to go alphabetically, quick thought about each player, and then declare their tier. I'll do my best to divide the tiers evenly, but it will likely not be perfectly even with six in each. At the end, I'll pick my true winner pick from tier one.
I will also go back to this after each week of Survivor with a quick word about my prediction and if they were in the correct tier, with that text being in blue.
Angelina Keely
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
I expect Angelina to try to be taken more seriously in an effort to have a chance at winning. Unfortunately for her, I don't see that being enough, and I think a serious Angelina will rub people the wrong way. She's not completely out of it, but I would be surprised.
Tier THREE
Aubry Bracco
Survivor Kaoh Rong (32), Game Changers (34), and Edge of Extinction (38)
I expect Aubry to improve upon her EoE and GC performances. She has set herself up fairly well by lowering her threat level coming into this season. For that, she is in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Charlie Davis
Survivor 46
The big question will be if Charlie will be able to hide behind the perceived target on him due to him almost winning. I think he might be able to. He's a smart dude. And for that, he's in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Chrissy Hofbeck
Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (35)
Chrissy is coming in as the screwed over queen, being the one that had to deal with the surprise forced firemaking. I think she may fly under the radar and I do think she has a shot. She certainly can make a case at the end this time, given her double mastectomy/cancer scare. But can she warm up to people enough to earn the W?
Tier TWO
Christian Hubicki
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Christian is coming into the game as one of the most likable people. It should be enough for him to avoid being an early merge boot, but he may be one of the larger targets come post-merge. We shall see. I still kinda like his chances. He's almost a lock to win if he makes the end, since he just had a baby and could whip that nugget of information out at the final tribal.
Tier ONE
Cirie Fields
Survivor Panama: Exile Island (12), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), Heroes vs. Villains (20), Game Changers (34)
Can she finally do it? Cirie has always left the game a different way, whether it's Advantage-geddon, idoled out, losing in fire, or being the sole vote at final 3. Cirie in her four times playing has yet to be voted out by a simple plurality vote. She's definitely a front-runner for me, but can she do it?
Tier ONE
Coach Wade
Survivor Tocantins (18), Heroes vs. Villains (20), South Pacific (23)
Coach is coming into 50 as a more mature, subdued player, and I think that bodes well for his chances. I think he has some of the best odds for any male, and if he can fit in and not break promises and own his game at the end, he has a shot.
Tier TWO
Colby Donaldson
Survivor: The Australian Outback (2), All-Stars (8), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
Colby is also coming into the game with a new perspective and strategy. I don't know how well he will handle all the idols and advantages, but I do believe people are not going to want to vote him out easily. I just worry about his ability to handle the modern game.
Tier THREE
Dee Valladares
Survivor 45
Dee is not only coming into 50 as a winner, but arguably the strongest known winner. She will have a lot of work to do to get further than the early merge portion of the game. But if anyone can pull it off, it's Dee. Surprisingly, she's not in my bottom tier, but she can't get hire than Tier three due to her winner status.
Tier THREE
Emily Flippen
Survivor 45
Emily will likely have a low threat level, which should work in her favor. But could she win at the end in front of a jury? I'm on the fence with that one. She's definitely going to be a dark horse winner pick for many.
Tier TWO
Genevieve Mushaluk
Survivor 47
Genevieve will have to work hard to build relationships and win people over since she has very few connections coming into 50. That may work for or against her. Time will tell. I really think Genevieve has great potential as a player, as she gives off Kim Spradlin vibes.
Tier ONE
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Survivor Borneo (1) and All-Stars (8)
Jenna is setting the record for the longest gap (42!) between seasons. But she seems like she'll be ok adjusting to the modern game. She was one of the surprising players who adjusted to the game at the time in All-Stars, so she shows great adaptability. But I do feel like it's been too long and she still has that known distinction of being annoying to other players.
Tier THREE
Finish: 24th / All Jenna had to do was target Cirie... AFTER the challenge. But she just couldn't wait. I think she overestimated how fast the modern game moves. It moves fast, but not in the first few days. I was wrong about her adjusting to the modern game, and she played like a Tier four player.
Joe Hunter
Survivor 48
On one hand, Joe doesn't have a big strategic or social threat level, but on the other hand, it doesn't seem like he's willing to adjust his game from 48 in which he was the final tribal council goat. I think he'll have a good shot of being in the mix come post-merge, but then he's got to make a move and then showcase it at the end.
Tier TWO
Jonathan Young
Survivor 42
Jonathan is known for one thing, and if he cannot make himself known for something else, he has zero shot of winning 50. He can beast challenges all he wants, but in order to win, he will have to make friends, strategize, and make a good strategic move or two. I'm not sure he's capable, ESPECIALLY against these returning players.
Tier FOUR
Kamilla Karthigesu
Survivor 48
Kamilla could very well fly under the radar, but if Kyle makes the merge with her, she's screwed. She has to hope he's gone pre-merge. I don't think anyone will believe she and Kyle wouldn't work together again. But if he is gone, she could fly under the radar. The question is if she can do enough to win without him.
Tier TWO
Kyle Fraser
Survivor 48
Why? Why is he back? I mean I like Kyle and all, but the last season everyone saw was his winning one. He's got zero chance. He may make that case in order to keep him around, but no one is going to feel guilty about voting him out.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 23rd / I definitely didn't have Kyle's chances very high, but he instantly formed a majority on his tribe, and was positioned quite well on a tribe that was doing well in tribal challenges. Unfortunately for him, his achilles took him out. So I did have him in the right tier, technically, but only because of his injury, which I knew nothing about going in.
Mike White
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Mike is another person I am wondering why they are here. Mike is a decent player and a great storyteller, but he's yet another with zero chance of winning. I'll at least enjoy his quips while he's on.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 20th / Another one I correctly had placed low. However, he seemed to have control of his tribe, at least through their first vote post-swap. But Christian managed to turn the tribe against him. Mike was not winning, but I thought he'd get a little bit further.
Ozzy Lusth
Survivor Cook Islands (13), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), South Pacific (23), Game Changers (34)
I can't imagine a scenario where Ozzy wins. I mean... can he? He certainly can survive a pre-merge. But after that... he might as well just cross his fingers. I'm interested to see how he handles a modern game. I guess you never know. He was one vote away in Cook Islands as a 24-year-old.
Tier THREE
Q Burdette
Survivor 46
Q is too crazy to win Survivor. He just is. He's 95% character and 5% player. He's the new Coach. I want to see some Q antics, but I don't think I'll see them for very long.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 21st / Well, I don't think I particularly forsaw Q going early, but he is the type of player who can. Just because he has physicality doens't mean he's a great assets in challenges, camp life, or people want to vote with. It's a shame. He was a joy to watch.
Rick Devens
Survivor: Edge of Extinction (38)
I go back and forth on Devens. On one hand, he's likable and would easily win over a jury AND there are some likable shields for him (Christian, Cirie, etc.). On the other, he was an early boot that had to return via the Edge and still couldn't get to the end. Apparently, he's practiced fire, but hopefully, he's practiced lowering his threat level, too.
Tier TWO
Rizo Velovic
Survivor 49
Rizo is the big unknown to the other players this season (outside of Savannah), so his chances take an immediate blow. Coach compared him to Russell Hantz, who steamrolled everyone else in HvV because they didn't know his game, either. Rizo's get a HUGE uphill battle.
Tier FOUR
Savannah Louie
Survivor 49
Apparently, everyone will know Savannah won 49, but they won't know all the details, so Savannah is another huge threat and target early. Given her sometimes brash personality... that cannot bode well for her.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 22nd / I think I was fairly spot-on with my assessment of Savannah. She bonded fairly well with her tribe, but became the odd person out after they lost the first two immunity challenges.
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Survivor Palau (10), Guatemala (11), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
First off, ICK. If you know, you know. Secondly, Steph has not shown any ability that she knows how to play a modern reality TV game. Just watch her performances in Snakes in the Grass or The Traitors. If I'm ranking these players 1-24 on their chances, she's 23rd at best.
Tier FOUR
Tiffany Nicole Ervin
Survivor 46
I would wager Tiff is coming into the game with perhaps the lowest threat level. That typically is a good thing in a returning player season, but if the big threats get together and target the smaller threats, she is toast. But I don't see that happening. I like Tiff's chances.
Tier ONE
Well, that is everyone! Let's see how the tiers shake out
TIER ONE
Aubry
Charlie
Christian
Cirie
Genevieve
Tiffany
TIER TWO
Chrissy
Coach
Emily
Joe
Kamilla
Rick
TIER THREE
Angelina
Colby
Dee
Jenna
Ozzy
TIER FOUR
Jonathan
Kyle
Mike
Q
Rizo
Savannah
Stephenie
All right, now with that, I'm going to reveal my official winner pick for 50. It's obviously someone in Tier One.
And that is...
AUBRY! She has lowered her threat level tremendously coming into 50, and if she can avoid "having a dialogue" with everyone, she's got a really good chance.
I will likely continue my Four Word Game for 50, but to do it for 24 players the first week, 22 the second, and so on will be very tough. I'll figure something out.
Tier one will be winner contenders. These are the players I expect to vie for the 50 crown. I will be fairly surprised if the winner is not in this tier.
Tier two will be somewhat long-shot winner contenders. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the winner came from this tier, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it, either. There is typically one thing with each player in this tier that will hold them back from winning.
Tier three will be the actual longshots. These players are very likely not winning, but if crazy things happened and they played well, you never know.
Tier four will be the no shots. I would bet money on these players not winning 50. It's not necessarily a zero percent shot (as I'd put Gabler here at the start of 43), but 9 times out of 10, these players stand no shot.
I'm going to go alphabetically, quick thought about each player, and then declare their tier. I'll do my best to divide the tiers evenly, but it will likely not be perfectly even with six in each. At the end, I'll pick my true winner pick from tier one.
I will also go back to this after each week of Survivor with a quick word about my prediction and if they were in the correct tier, with that text being in blue.
Angelina Keely
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
I expect Angelina to try to be taken more seriously in an effort to have a chance at winning. Unfortunately for her, I don't see that being enough, and I think a serious Angelina will rub people the wrong way. She's not completely out of it, but I would be surprised.
Tier THREE
Aubry Bracco
Survivor Kaoh Rong (32), Game Changers (34), and Edge of Extinction (38)
I expect Aubry to improve upon her EoE and GC performances. She has set herself up fairly well by lowering her threat level coming into this season. For that, she is in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Charlie Davis
Survivor 46
The big question will be if Charlie will be able to hide behind the perceived target on him due to him almost winning. I think he might be able to. He's a smart dude. And for that, he's in my top tier.
Tier ONE
Chrissy Hofbeck
Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (35)
Chrissy is coming in as the screwed over queen, being the one that had to deal with the surprise forced firemaking. I think she may fly under the radar and I do think she has a shot. She certainly can make a case at the end this time, given her double mastectomy/cancer scare. But can she warm up to people enough to earn the W?
Tier TWO
Christian Hubicki
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Christian is coming into the game as one of the most likable people. It should be enough for him to avoid being an early merge boot, but he may be one of the larger targets come post-merge. We shall see. I still kinda like his chances. He's almost a lock to win if he makes the end, since he just had a baby and could whip that nugget of information out at the final tribal.
Tier ONE
Cirie Fields
Survivor Panama: Exile Island (12), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), Heroes vs. Villains (20), Game Changers (34)
Can she finally do it? Cirie has always left the game a different way, whether it's Advantage-geddon, idoled out, losing in fire, or being the sole vote at final 3. Cirie in her four times playing has yet to be voted out by a simple plurality vote. She's definitely a front-runner for me, but can she do it?
Tier ONE
Coach Wade
Survivor Tocantins (18), Heroes vs. Villains (20), South Pacific (23)
Coach is coming into 50 as a more mature, subdued player, and I think that bodes well for his chances. I think he has some of the best odds for any male, and if he can fit in and not break promises and own his game at the end, he has a shot.
Tier TWO
Colby Donaldson
Survivor: The Australian Outback (2), All-Stars (8), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
Colby is also coming into the game with a new perspective and strategy. I don't know how well he will handle all the idols and advantages, but I do believe people are not going to want to vote him out easily. I just worry about his ability to handle the modern game.
Tier THREE
Dee Valladares
Survivor 45
Dee is not only coming into 50 as a winner, but arguably the strongest known winner. She will have a lot of work to do to get further than the early merge portion of the game. But if anyone can pull it off, it's Dee. Surprisingly, she's not in my bottom tier, but she can't get hire than Tier three due to her winner status.
Tier THREE
Emily Flippen
Survivor 45
Emily will likely have a low threat level, which should work in her favor. But could she win at the end in front of a jury? I'm on the fence with that one. She's definitely going to be a dark horse winner pick for many.
Tier TWO
Genevieve Mushaluk
Survivor 47
Genevieve will have to work hard to build relationships and win people over since she has very few connections coming into 50. That may work for or against her. Time will tell. I really think Genevieve has great potential as a player, as she gives off Kim Spradlin vibes.
Tier ONE
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Survivor Borneo (1) and All-Stars (8)
Jenna is setting the record for the longest gap (42!) between seasons. But she seems like she'll be ok adjusting to the modern game. She was one of the surprising players who adjusted to the game at the time in All-Stars, so she shows great adaptability. But I do feel like it's been too long and she still has that known distinction of being annoying to other players.
Tier THREE
Finish: 24th / All Jenna had to do was target Cirie... AFTER the challenge. But she just couldn't wait. I think she overestimated how fast the modern game moves. It moves fast, but not in the first few days. I was wrong about her adjusting to the modern game, and she played like a Tier four player.
Joe Hunter
Survivor 48
On one hand, Joe doesn't have a big strategic or social threat level, but on the other hand, it doesn't seem like he's willing to adjust his game from 48 in which he was the final tribal council goat. I think he'll have a good shot of being in the mix come post-merge, but then he's got to make a move and then showcase it at the end.
Tier TWO
Jonathan Young
Survivor 42
Jonathan is known for one thing, and if he cannot make himself known for something else, he has zero shot of winning 50. He can beast challenges all he wants, but in order to win, he will have to make friends, strategize, and make a good strategic move or two. I'm not sure he's capable, ESPECIALLY against these returning players.
Tier FOUR
Kamilla Karthigesu
Survivor 48
Kamilla could very well fly under the radar, but if Kyle makes the merge with her, she's screwed. She has to hope he's gone pre-merge. I don't think anyone will believe she and Kyle wouldn't work together again. But if he is gone, she could fly under the radar. The question is if she can do enough to win without him.
Tier TWO
Kyle Fraser
Survivor 48
Why? Why is he back? I mean I like Kyle and all, but the last season everyone saw was his winning one. He's got zero chance. He may make that case in order to keep him around, but no one is going to feel guilty about voting him out.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 23rd / I definitely didn't have Kyle's chances very high, but he instantly formed a majority on his tribe, and was positioned quite well on a tribe that was doing well in tribal challenges. Unfortunately for him, his achilles took him out. So I did have him in the right tier, technically, but only because of his injury, which I knew nothing about going in.
Mike White
Survivor David vs. Goliath (37)
Mike is another person I am wondering why they are here. Mike is a decent player and a great storyteller, but he's yet another with zero chance of winning. I'll at least enjoy his quips while he's on.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 20th / Another one I correctly had placed low. However, he seemed to have control of his tribe, at least through their first vote post-swap. But Christian managed to turn the tribe against him. Mike was not winning, but I thought he'd get a little bit further.
Ozzy Lusth
Survivor Cook Islands (13), Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites (16), South Pacific (23), Game Changers (34)
I can't imagine a scenario where Ozzy wins. I mean... can he? He certainly can survive a pre-merge. But after that... he might as well just cross his fingers. I'm interested to see how he handles a modern game. I guess you never know. He was one vote away in Cook Islands as a 24-year-old.
Tier THREE
Q Burdette
Survivor 46
Q is too crazy to win Survivor. He just is. He's 95% character and 5% player. He's the new Coach. I want to see some Q antics, but I don't think I'll see them for very long.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 21st / Well, I don't think I particularly forsaw Q going early, but he is the type of player who can. Just because he has physicality doens't mean he's a great assets in challenges, camp life, or people want to vote with. It's a shame. He was a joy to watch.
Rick Devens
Survivor: Edge of Extinction (38)
I go back and forth on Devens. On one hand, he's likable and would easily win over a jury AND there are some likable shields for him (Christian, Cirie, etc.). On the other, he was an early boot that had to return via the Edge and still couldn't get to the end. Apparently, he's practiced fire, but hopefully, he's practiced lowering his threat level, too.
Tier TWO
Rizo Velovic
Survivor 49
Rizo is the big unknown to the other players this season (outside of Savannah), so his chances take an immediate blow. Coach compared him to Russell Hantz, who steamrolled everyone else in HvV because they didn't know his game, either. Rizo's get a HUGE uphill battle.
Tier FOUR
Savannah Louie
Survivor 49
Apparently, everyone will know Savannah won 49, but they won't know all the details, so Savannah is another huge threat and target early. Given her sometimes brash personality... that cannot bode well for her.
Tier FOUR
Finish: 22nd / I think I was fairly spot-on with my assessment of Savannah. She bonded fairly well with her tribe, but became the odd person out after they lost the first two immunity challenges.
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Survivor Palau (10), Guatemala (11), Heroes vs. Villains (20)
First off, ICK. If you know, you know. Secondly, Steph has not shown any ability that she knows how to play a modern reality TV game. Just watch her performances in Snakes in the Grass or The Traitors. If I'm ranking these players 1-24 on their chances, she's 23rd at best.
Tier FOUR
Tiffany Nicole Ervin
Survivor 46
I would wager Tiff is coming into the game with perhaps the lowest threat level. That typically is a good thing in a returning player season, but if the big threats get together and target the smaller threats, she is toast. But I don't see that happening. I like Tiff's chances.
Tier ONE
Well, that is everyone! Let's see how the tiers shake out
TIER ONE
Aubry
Charlie
Christian
Cirie
Genevieve
Tiffany
TIER TWO
Chrissy
Coach
Emily
Joe
Kamilla
Rick
TIER THREE
Angelina
Colby
Dee
Jenna
Ozzy
TIER FOUR
Jonathan
Kyle
Mike
Q
Rizo
Savannah
Stephenie
All right, now with that, I'm going to reveal my official winner pick for 50. It's obviously someone in Tier One.
And that is...
AUBRY! She has lowered her threat level tremendously coming into 50, and if she can avoid "having a dialogue" with everyone, she's got a really good chance.
I will likely continue my Four Word Game for 50, but to do it for 24 players the first week, 22 the second, and so on will be very tough. I'll figure something out.
Friday, February 13, 2026
Feelings after a Second Super Bowl Title for the Seahawks
I realized I hadn't talked about it on here yet, but yes, my Seattle Seahawks are once again Super Bowl Champions! I don't know if it hasn't fully sunk in yet or if I've almost become numb to winning, but I'm not overly ecstatic about this one for some reason. I am, of course, very surprised that in Mike Macdonald's second season EVER as a head coach, he won a Super Bowl with us. He turned us around so quickly. The unfortunate thing for him is that this will be hard for him to live up to. But on the flip side, he will be able to coast on this one for a while, regardless of how the Hawks do in the next few years. I'm going to go over my overall thoughts about this team, what I expect going forward, and if we have a potential dynasty brewing here.
I honestly believe that this defense had a better year than the 2013 Seahawks did. They were dominant against the run, and outside of Puka Nacua, no star players had a good game against the Hawks this past year. The 2013 Hawks were hard-hitting and forced turnovers, while this defense just doesn't allow yards or points. I think the latter is overall better, because they didn't have to rely on turnovers to do well.
I'm just mostly stoked we have a competitive team with likable players. Sam Darnold, our quarterback, is one of the most likable quarterbacks in the league after what he has gone through. Geno Smith had a similar arc and story, but he didn't exude likability. We know that if we build a consistent winner here, Sam will do what it takes to agree to a contract extension when the time comes, rather than demand a high amount that would hurt the team to give out.
What's crazy about this #1 defense is that there aren't really any huge stars on it. Sure, there are Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, and Ernest Jones, all of whom have gotten a Pro Bowl nod, at least second-team All-Pro, or both. But they aren't the marketable defensive stars you see on other teams like TJ Watt, Maxx Crosby, Micah Parsons, Sauce Gardner, or Myles Garrett. They're just a bunch of dudes. It's funny that the best defense in the NFL only had one first-team All-Pro in Williams. It shows the depth of this defense and how well-rounded they are. Some defenses are poor against the pass, run, or both. This team is poor against NOTHING. There is not one situation or type of offense that they are weak against. They can play heavy or light, whatever the situation calls for.
I fully expect this team to continue to build, plug in holes when guys leave or retire, and continue to compete each and every year. And if, worst-case scenario, they have a really bad year, general manager and team president John Schneider has shown he can build a team out given a few top picks, and isn't afraid to dish away a star player to help build a new team.
It's crazy how the trades in recent years were mocked and lauded, only for them to work out swimmingly. First, of course, was the Russell Wilson trade, which netted the Hawks multiple firsts and helped them land their stud left tackle in Charles Cross and a stud corner in Devon Witherspoon. Then, just this past off-season, the trades of DK Metcalf and Geno Smith that netted the Hawks a second and third round pick. The second round pick would eventually (after a trade with Tennessee) net them stud safety Nick Emmanwori, who was a vital contributor on the Super Bowl team. The third round pick netted Jalen Milroe, who is a project QB, but I guarantee the Hawks are not going to just let him walk in a year or two.
Do we have a potential dynasty? Possibly. The key will be if they can establish an identity on offense, and either get an offensive coordinator who will stick around, or establish an identity well enough so that it doesn't particularly matter who the OC is, as long as they stick to the script. I think we're going to see a very competitive team from the Seahawks for the next several years, and I would not be surprised in the slightest if we saw another Super Bowl appearance or win. I think best-case scenario we have a borderline dynasty, one that we could argue is a dynasty or not, similar to the Legion of Boom years in the 2010s.
One thing that is potentially looming is the sale of the team. Rumors have started sprouting about the team possibly going for sale. If you have a good ownership situation, you do not want your team sold, but unfortunately, it will have to happen at some point, due to Paul Allen's passing and his sister Jodi serving as the temporary chairperson. If the Hawks can get a good owner or a good ownership group, we should be ok. I worry that the Hawks could go into someone's hands, like Jeff Bezos, who would only want to use the Hawks to further line his pockets and not be emotionally invested in the team. I'll likely most a post about my thoughts when that happens, so I'll worry about that when the time comes.
Ownership aside, I'm excited for the future. Mike Macdonald will likely be our coach for a long time, and we know he's a good one. And he seems like the kind of guy who isn't set in his ways, and is willing to evolve and change as the NFL game evolves and changes. That's not something I could say about his predecessor. And Sam Darnold, our QB, is already one of the top QB's in team history after just one year, so hopefully, he will grow and evolve as well and be a Seahawk for a long time, too.
I honestly believe that this defense had a better year than the 2013 Seahawks did. They were dominant against the run, and outside of Puka Nacua, no star players had a good game against the Hawks this past year. The 2013 Hawks were hard-hitting and forced turnovers, while this defense just doesn't allow yards or points. I think the latter is overall better, because they didn't have to rely on turnovers to do well.
I'm just mostly stoked we have a competitive team with likable players. Sam Darnold, our quarterback, is one of the most likable quarterbacks in the league after what he has gone through. Geno Smith had a similar arc and story, but he didn't exude likability. We know that if we build a consistent winner here, Sam will do what it takes to agree to a contract extension when the time comes, rather than demand a high amount that would hurt the team to give out.
What's crazy about this #1 defense is that there aren't really any huge stars on it. Sure, there are Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, and Ernest Jones, all of whom have gotten a Pro Bowl nod, at least second-team All-Pro, or both. But they aren't the marketable defensive stars you see on other teams like TJ Watt, Maxx Crosby, Micah Parsons, Sauce Gardner, or Myles Garrett. They're just a bunch of dudes. It's funny that the best defense in the NFL only had one first-team All-Pro in Williams. It shows the depth of this defense and how well-rounded they are. Some defenses are poor against the pass, run, or both. This team is poor against NOTHING. There is not one situation or type of offense that they are weak against. They can play heavy or light, whatever the situation calls for.
I fully expect this team to continue to build, plug in holes when guys leave or retire, and continue to compete each and every year. And if, worst-case scenario, they have a really bad year, general manager and team president John Schneider has shown he can build a team out given a few top picks, and isn't afraid to dish away a star player to help build a new team.
It's crazy how the trades in recent years were mocked and lauded, only for them to work out swimmingly. First, of course, was the Russell Wilson trade, which netted the Hawks multiple firsts and helped them land their stud left tackle in Charles Cross and a stud corner in Devon Witherspoon. Then, just this past off-season, the trades of DK Metcalf and Geno Smith that netted the Hawks a second and third round pick. The second round pick would eventually (after a trade with Tennessee) net them stud safety Nick Emmanwori, who was a vital contributor on the Super Bowl team. The third round pick netted Jalen Milroe, who is a project QB, but I guarantee the Hawks are not going to just let him walk in a year or two.
Do we have a potential dynasty? Possibly. The key will be if they can establish an identity on offense, and either get an offensive coordinator who will stick around, or establish an identity well enough so that it doesn't particularly matter who the OC is, as long as they stick to the script. I think we're going to see a very competitive team from the Seahawks for the next several years, and I would not be surprised in the slightest if we saw another Super Bowl appearance or win. I think best-case scenario we have a borderline dynasty, one that we could argue is a dynasty or not, similar to the Legion of Boom years in the 2010s.
One thing that is potentially looming is the sale of the team. Rumors have started sprouting about the team possibly going for sale. If you have a good ownership situation, you do not want your team sold, but unfortunately, it will have to happen at some point, due to Paul Allen's passing and his sister Jodi serving as the temporary chairperson. If the Hawks can get a good owner or a good ownership group, we should be ok. I worry that the Hawks could go into someone's hands, like Jeff Bezos, who would only want to use the Hawks to further line his pockets and not be emotionally invested in the team. I'll likely most a post about my thoughts when that happens, so I'll worry about that when the time comes.
Ownership aside, I'm excited for the future. Mike Macdonald will likely be our coach for a long time, and we know he's a good one. And he seems like the kind of guy who isn't set in his ways, and is willing to evolve and change as the NFL game evolves and changes. That's not something I could say about his predecessor. And Sam Darnold, our QB, is already one of the top QB's in team history after just one year, so hopefully, he will grow and evolve as well and be a Seahawk for a long time, too.
Monday, February 9, 2026
2026 New NFL Head Coach Hire Grades
I did this two years ago, when the Seahawks were in the market for a head coach for the first time in 14 years, so I thought I'd do it again with so many openings this off-season. I'll go in order of date hired, and grade each from F to A+. I just went back and re-graded the hirings from two years ago. Some, like Macdonald and Morris, I was spot on about. Others, like Canales and Callahan, I was very wrong about. So it'll be interesting to see what I get right or wrong a few years from now.
Giants hire John Harbaugh: B+
It's funny, I gave his brother's team an "A" for hiring him two years ago. I just feel that in this situation, success is not guaranteed. Harbaugh was treading water in Baltimore, and his players lost faith in him. Why should we think he can turn around a struggling Giants organization? Sure, he'll be better than Daboll as a head coach overall, but New York can be a nasty sports city, and any struggles will be harped on early. But, what else is New York going to do? This is their best bet.
Falcons hire Kevin Stefanski: B
Stefanski is a solid coach. He made the most of what he was given in Cleveland. Unfortunately for him, he goes from one mess of a QB room to another. Can he get the most out of Michael Penix? We know he'll be able to get good seasons out of Bijan, Pitts, and Drake London. Just need to have a solid QB season, and of course, improve the defense. The NFC South is potentially wide open, so it's anyone's for the taking.
Dolphins hire Jeff Hafley: D+
I feel like D+ might even be too nice. Hafley is an uninspiring choice, and it's almost guaranteed that the Dolphins' offense is going to struggle in 2026, whoever the QB is. They might have an above-average defense, but try telling that to the Jets. I will be very surprised if Hafley lasts more than three seasons, if two. He may keep them fairly competitive, but with the Patriots having returned to being competitive, the Bills having Josh Allen and a good roster, and the Jets potentially on their way up, the Fins could be in big trouble the next few years.
Titans hire Robert Saleh: C-
I'll give the Titans this: some defensive coaches do well on a second or third stint. Here are a list of defensive-minded coaches who didn't have success until their second or third team: Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, and to some extent, Mike Vrabel. Is Saleh one of those guys, though? I'd have to say probably not. Saleh already struggled in New York, and now he is tasked with turning around a bottom-feeder in Tennessee. How is Cam Ward expected to succeed? He'll need a great OC to help him, and even if they get one, he may get snatched away in a year or two to become a head coach. Really needed an offensive coach here.
Ravens hire Jesse Minter: B-
I guess this shows the Ravens wish they had kept Macdonald and promoted from within, but too late for that. I'm not entirely sold on Minter being a head coach, because not every up-and-coming coordinator has success; see Saleh, Mike McDaniel, and Aaron Glenn to name a few. But Minter's going to a stable, well-run organization with good ownership. I could see this going either way, but considering the Ravens are well-run enough to have only had three head coaches in 30 seasons, I'd say it'll likely work out.
Steelers hire Mike McCarthy: D-
Feels weird to give an extremely stable organization like the Steelers a "D-", but they deserve it for this hire. On one hand, I am happy for McCarthy, who will be able to coach the team he grew up rooting for. On the other hand, there is an almost zero chance that this ends in something other than disappointment. McCarthy won a Super Bowl in Green Bay with a stud, talented QB and a young team around him. McCarthy benefited from having a great team built by their GM. Ever since, he's been unable to get a team back to a Super Bowl. He will almost undoubtedly be the shortest tenured Steelers head coach ever, and not just because he's starting older than the other coaches were when they left. It's because he's this generation's Jeff Fisher, cashing in on one good year for an entire career. The worst part of this all is that there was no one else wanting to hire him, and there was zero hurry to make this move, yet they hurried to make it. They avoid an "F" because McCarthy, like his predecessor before him, will be able to keep the Steelers competitive, but he will also keep them from winning any trophies.
Bills hire Joe Brady: D+
Let me ask this. When is the last time a team promoted from within, and it worked wonders? I can't think of one. This does not feel like a step forward for the Bills. With the Patriots' resurgence, they needed a coach to offset Mike Vrabel, and they did not get it. Now, they'll likely compete for wild cards on Josh Allen's talent alone. Way to go. This grade is a D+ and not any lower because there is a bit of upside to hiring a younger, offensive mind, as we have seen in recent years. But man, I will be shocked if Joe Brady ever leads them to a Super Bowl. He may not even lead them to a playoff win.
Browns hire Todd Monken: C-
I don't absolutely hate this hire, but Monken was marginal at best as an offensive coordinator, despite having Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Also, a first-time head coach at 60? Basically unheard of these days. There's a chance he can make them slightly competitive, but this is a very uninspiring and unsexy hire. I do like that he comes from a stable organization, ironically, the one that used to be the Browns. But how is he an improvement over Kevin Stefanski? It feels like a downgrade. Monken has more experience, but I don't think there are many fans that consider him a brighter offensive mind. Perhaps he'll be better at handling the chaos in Cleveland.
Cardinals hire Mike LaFleur: C
I'm giving this one a 50/50 shot of working, so a C is the right grade. On one hand, LaFleur could not get a struggling Jets offense to function. On the other hand, it WAS the Jets, and he made the Rams offense look good under Sean McVay. But again, he had McVay to guide him, so how will he do without him? He's going to be tasked to find a way to succeed in the stacked NFC West. My best bet is that he will have one good season (maybe his first or second) and then be coasting on that for a while. Think Zac Taylor in Cincinnati, who, coincidentally, is also a McVay protege.
Raiders hire Klint Kubiak: C+
I mostly hate that this forces the Seahawks to go find their fourth coordinator in the past four seasons. I didn't have 100% faith in Klint the whole season, so it will be interesting to see how he does as a head coach. He does have it in his blood, as his dad, Gary, was a head coach for the Texans and Broncos. I think there's a semi-decent chance this works, but like LaFleur with the Cardinals, Kubiak is going to need some other team to take last place. Will the Chiefs continue falling? Will the Chargers or Broncos take a huge step back? I feel like both are unlikely. If they give Klint some time, this may work. He will have weapons to work with. My #1 piece of advice for their front office is to improve their offensive line and get one receiver weapon for their #1 draft pick to throw to.
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