What's Wrong with the Seahawks?

The Seahawks are 4-5, which isn't too bad, but when you consider they started 3-0 and have lost 5 of 6, and four straight at home, you realize there are some problems with the team.  Clearly, they were buoyed by their easy start, which involved facing: A rookie QB in his first game, a rebuilding Patriots team they barely beat, and a Dolphins team on their 3rd string QB.  Most competent teams would go 3-0 in that stretch, just as the Seahawks did.  But when they finally started facing teams built to win now, they started losing.  They even lost to a Giants team at home that still only has one other win, over the struggling Browns.

So, what's the issue?  On offense, it's pretty clear the offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL.  Geno Smith has one of the highest pressure rates and total number of pressures in the NFL, and it's not because he's always holding onto the ball too long, although I will admit he does that on occasion.  But I think the bigger issue is not being able to establish a running game.  To establish a running game, you need four things: A good running back, an offensive line that can create holes, a run-blocking scheme and coaching that will allow this to happen, and an offensive coordinator who will not abandon the run too quickly.  The Seahawks have the first one.  But they are largely missing the other three.  The offensive line has been unable to open holes in the A or B gaps.  Most of Kenneth Walker's big runs have been outside the tackles, where he has used his speed to get around the edge.  The run-blocking scheme also seems to be largely not there.  The Seahawks recently faced a 4th and 1 in Overtime against the Rams and could not get one yard.  And lastly, I'm not sure Ryan Grubb is the right fit for an offense that needs to be balanced in today's NFL.  He does seem to abandon the run after it doesn't work in game.

But that's just the offense.  The defense is actually not performing too poorly.  They've certainly shown to be dominant at times.  But they are inconsistent and lacking a bit of discipline.  I think, with time, they can develop into a dominant unit more consistently.  Perhaps not "Legion of Boom" dominant, but maybe close to it.  The pass rush could be improved, but the run defense seems better.  The pass defense is inconsistent, seemingly dependent on the aerial attack they face.  The defense has some above-average players in Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, and Ernest Jones, but that's about it.  They could use a bit more talent.

I must also talk about starting quarterback Geno Smith.  Geno has a lot of people calling him to be benched.  I can see where they're coming from, but our other option is Sam Howell, who led the league in interceptions last season.  Sure, a change at quarterback can spark an offense, but it can also cause division.  Geno has a lot of close friends on the team, namely receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, and his benching would certainly upset them, especially if it's somewhat unwarranted.  We'd also be asking a second-year quarterback to be successful when the Seahawks, as I stated above, have one of the worst pressure rates allowed in the NFL.  It's very likely the people who are calling for Geno to be benched would then be calling for him to come back.  I do not believe Geno will be our quarterback for too much longer, as his age will likely lead to us looking for a younger option soon.  Just not this season.

Safe to say, coach Mike McDonald has his work cut out for him.  I hate that I'm hearing people calling him to be fired already.  Like, come on, people.  This was not a team ready to make a Super Bowl run when he took over.  Pete was let go because there were struggles with the team that, unfortunately, still exist today.  Therefore, I think the issues with this team are largely due to the construction of the roster by General Manager John Schneider.  I could do an entirely separate post about him, but the point I want to make here is that he's likely been overvalued as a GM and should, therefore, be held accountable for the team's struggles.   He's not been a good GM with trades, he's only had two or three good drafts out of 14, and he overvalues some positions (wide receiver) while undervaluing others (interior OL).  

If the Seahawks really want to make a run at a Super Bowl in a few years, two things need to happen.  One, they need to find the next franchise quarterback.  Geno is a good holdover quarterback, but he will likely start declining soon (if he hasn't already), and the Hawks will need to find a younger option.  The second thing the Hawks will need to do is either replace John Schneider, or he has to change his philosophy on roster construction.  I don't see the latter happening, as people that high on teams don't tend to be malleable and are set in their ways.  Yes, he put together a team that won us a Super Bowl in 2014.  However, the NFL has changed in the last ten years, and I think he's failed to realize this.  I still like Schneider as a team-builder more than Jerry Dipoto on the Mariners, but it's starting to get close.  Like Dipoto, I feel a championship might not be possible under his reign.  

The thing Seahawks fans most have to understand is this is a team in transition.  We aren't going to make a Super Bowl run this year or even next.  Some legitimate holes on this team still need to be filled, and McDonald still has to install his system and way of doing things.  This team still feels like it has remnants of Carroll's philosophy, so that needs to change.  Nothing against Carroll, but he's not the coach anymore.  This is McDonald's team now, whether fans like it or not.  Let's all be patient.

My Top 10 Sitcoms, Dramas, and Animated TV Shows of All Time

I love TV.  I've seen quite a few TV shows throughout my life.  I have compiled a list of my Top 10  Sitcoms, Dramas, and Animated Shows.  I have seen most of these to completion.  I'll denote with an asterisk (*) if I haven't.  And there are a few shows still airing that I haven't included here, but may someday.  I might have to if I ever come back.  

First up, my Top 10 Sitcoms/Comedic Shows.  There are definitely a few that I haven't seen that a lot of people would include such as Seinfeld, Cheers, Frasier, and M*A*S*H.  Perhaps someday I'll watch those.  But for now, these are my top 10, ranked in order, from least favorite (but still like) to most favorite.

10. Rules of Engagement
I thoroughly enjoyed this show.  I caught a few bits and pieces when it was airing and liked what I saw, so I gave it a try.  I never really have been a fan of David Spade but I liked him in the role of Russell.  But I most liked Patrick Warburton and Megyn Price's dynamic as the "main" couple.  Bianca Kajlich and Oliver Hudson were good as well.  I definitely want to watch this again someday.  

9. Two and a Half Men
I'm with everyone else in the thought that it was not the same once Charlie Sheen left the show.  But it was still decent and watchable.  It just didn't have the same charm.  It'd be like if The Big Bang Theory had lost Jim Parsons.  Anyway, I loved Charlie and Allan's brotherly dynamic, and I'd like to think if I had a brother I'd have a similar relationship.  I just don't know if I'd be the Allan or the Charlie.  Probably Allan, lol.

8. The Drew Carey Show
I first got into Whose Line Is It Anyway, which is my favorite Improv show of all time.  But then, when I realized Drew and Ryan were on there, I had to watch.  And I'm glad I did.  There are some slow points and the show does get a little over the top at times, but it's still one of the most underrated sitcoms of all time in my opinion.  I'm actually currently in the middle of rewatching it since it finally got to a streaming service of some kind.  

7. Brooklyn Nine-Nine
I finished watching this for the first time a month or two ago, and boy I"m glad I gave it a shot.  The ensemble cast kills it.  Who'd have thought a police detective department would be this funny?  I never thought I could tolerate a sitcom with Andy Samberg as the lead, since I find him slightly annoying.  His role on Parks and Rec drove me nuts.  But he kills it here.  Especially in the sentimental moments.  It's a little hard to believe he could snag a chick like Amy, but she has her flaws, too.  

6. The Big Bang Theory*
I might have to move this up or do a new list someday since I am currently in the middle of watching it for the first time to completion.  But I am finally doing that and I'm really enjoying it.  The humor in this show is so smart, and the writers clearly do a ton of research to get all the physics stuff in it.  And of course, Sheldon carries the show.  His character is certainly a top 10 sitcom character of all time.  

5. Parks and Rec
It's like the Office, but in some ways, better.  But I do prefer the Office.  Both Parks and Rec and The Office have their lesser quality seasons.  The Office's was at the end, and Parks and Rec's was at the beginning.  But once you hit Season 3, man this show picks up.  The additions of Ben and Chris were the best thing that could've happened to this show.  Adam Scott and Rob Lowe kill it as Ben Wyatt and Chris Traeger.  I have only watched this show all the way through once (with bits and pieces seen as well), but I certainly want to watch it again.

4. Boy Meets World
I'm a little surprised it's this high, too.  But this was my coming-of-age show.  It was a little ahead of where I was in my life, but it taught me lessons I learned for the future.  I related so much to Cory Matthews growing up, and I so badly wanted my own Topanga and Shawn.  I'm currently listening to the rewatch podcast "Pod Meets World" done by Danielle (Topanga), Rider (Shawn) and Will (Eric), and I'm reliving all those memories of watching the show again.  

3. The Office
I have only watched The Office all the way through once.  I've seen chunks of episodes other times, and I've watched more scenes on YouTube than I can count.  Anyway, it's such a good show.  There's a reason a lot of people in my generation and Gen Z have seen this show many times, sometimes watching the series back to back.  The main cast is terrific and the side characters shine when given an opportunity.  It makes everyone watching want to work in a similar office environment, only to realize when we do we'll never work with a Michael Scott, Jim Halpert,  Dwight Schrute, or Pam Beesly. 

2. How I Met Your Mother
Such a well-written show.  There's never been a comedy that has jumped in time as much.  They basically had it planned from the start, and the continuity in this show is insanely good.  Like when they jump in time but manage to match up Lily's hairstyle to what it was at the time.  And the running gags, especially the ones by Barney, are... legen... wait for it...DARY!  This show holds up well and I imagine it will for a long time.  A lot of people criticize the ending, and it does disappoint me that they killed off the mother, but we, as fans, have to realize the show was about Ted's love for Robin all along.  

1. FRIENDS
This is the pinnacle for me.  Nothing will top it.  I've worn out my DVD's watching this show (not literally, but I've watched it a LOT).  I got into it in high school after catching an episode on TV.  It was in one of the later seasons at the time, but I started from the beginning, and boy was I instantly hooked.  It's hard to describe why I and so many others love this show so much.  Personally, I think it's the well-written characters and how they're performed by the six brilliant actors.  

Now for my Top 10 Animated Shows or Cartoons.  Thought I'd save the dramas for last.  A few of these I haven't seen all the way through, but I plan to (at least watch more of them if I haven't caught up).  I love animated shows.  I don't watch them enough.  Some of these are from my childhood, and some are from my adulthood.  It'll probably be easy to tell which is which.  

10. Invincible*
I still need to watch the second season, which somehow, I haven't.  But Invincible was such a good gory, vulgar, superhero show.  Great voice acting by Steven Rhee, J.K. Simmons, and Sandra Oh.  It's good for any adult superhero fan who has always wanted a bit of adult themes in their superhero cartoons.

9. Star Wars: Rebels
I was initially put off by the idea of this show because it aired on "Disney XD" and seemed to be aimed towards kids.  But boy was I mistaken, for the most part.  Yes, it's aimed towards kids, but there are some adult themes from time to time, especially in the later seasons.  Every member of the Ghost crew is lovable, from the main Ezra to Kanan, Sabine, Hera, Zeb, and of course, Chopper.  I've now seen this show twice after introducing it to my girlfriend, and I enjoyed it even more the second time.

8. Rick and Morty*
Such an intelligent, animated show.  I got into the show during its peak and I was hooked.  Once they released new episodes, I never got around to watching them.  Maybe someday.  I was put off by the allegations against Justin Roiland, the actor behind the two mains.  But when I was watching this I got very into it, getting a lot of Rick and Morty merch.

7. Pokemon: The Animated Series*
The show that accompanied the game.  I absolutely loved the first couple of seasons.  I never really got past the Johto region, but the early episodes just hit hard.  I may give them a shot someday.  I remember re-watching a bit of them when I saw them on Netflix a few years ago, but I may have to get myself back into Pokemon, complete with playing the games as well.

6. Doug (Nickelodeon)
I'm only considering the episodes of Doug that aired on Nickelodeon, which I'm sure I've seen all of.  I absolutely loved this show as a kid, relating to Doug quite well.  There's just an aesthetic to the show when it was on Nickelodeon that's just incredibly pleasing.  It's hard to explain.  This is on my shortlist of animated shows to rewatch someday.  

5. Archer*
How'd it get into my Top 5?  I'm currently in the middle of watching this series.  I had initially watched the first 5 or so seasons years ago, not too long after they'd been released.  And now I'm finally getting through the entire series.  I just love the characters: Archer, Lana, Cyril, Pam, Mallory, and yes, even Carol/Cheryl.  It's a bit over the top what Archer (and others) can survive, but that's kinda what makes it fun.  

4. Star Wars: The Clone Wars
Yep, somehow this got here, too.  There's no real cohesive prevalent storyline, but you know these are all short stories (or segments of short stories) that take place during the Clone Wars of Star Wars, between Episodes II and III.  I've only seen most of the episodes once, but someday my girlfriend agreed to give this show a shot, so we'll watch it.  Someday.  

3. Family Guy*
I can say for fairly certain that Family Guy has made me laugh more than any other animated show.  Perhaps any show period.  I discovered Family Guy threw some short clips I watched online many years ago, and I got hooked.  As a Star Wars fan, I especially love their Star Wars specials, and I kinda wish they did the prequel series, too.  Oh well.  I just love the characters, the Griffin family, Peter's friends, and the entire city of Quahog that Seth McFarlane created.  I even played a mobile game for the longest time that was based on this show (Family Guy: Quest for Stuff).  

2. Hey Arnold
I learned so many life lessons from this show.  Arnold, perhaps more than any adult in my life growing up, taught me to be good and always try to do the right thing.  This is definitely a show I want to fully rewatch someday, and introduce to my kids if I have some.  It's just so good.

1. Rugrats*
Who'd have thought a show about babies would be entertaining for basically all ages?  Rugrats still holds up well to this day.  I especially love the earlier episodes and their animation style.  I related a lot to Tommy, of course, and I related his family to my own.  I learned a lot of life lessons from this show as well.  I can't say for certain I've seen ALL of the episodes of Rugrats, especially when it comes to later seasons (or the remake, All Grown Up, etc.) since they didn't seem to have the same charm as the earlier seasons, but it's still enough to make Rugrats my favorite animated show/cartoon of all time.

Now, the best for last (IMO).  The Top 10 Dramas/Action TV shows of all time.  These are scripted shows, typically 40+ minutes in length, that range from the natural to the supernatural.  Some have comedic elements, but none are known as straight up comedies or sitcoms.  Here they are:

10. Californication
I don't even recall why I gave this show a shot, but boy, I'm glad I did.  It's witty, entertaining, and despite Hank Moody (played by David Duchovny) being such a dick, you care for him.  You realize he does have a heart...deep, deep down.  But man he sure thinks with his penis most of the time.  I've thought about giving this show a rewatch soon.  It's also got a very underrated soundtrack.  And, I have to say, at times, this show made me laugh harder than maybe any sitcom on this list.  There were some moments I had to pause for several minutes because I could not stop laughing.  

9. Suits
It's not that high because I only semi-recently finished it, but it deserves to be here.  It's incredibly witty, and we as the audience get to learn about the world of corporate law along with Mike.  I've heard it's not very realistic for corporate law, but if you put that aside, it's so good.  There was a season after Rachel (Megan Markle) and Mike left and the show isn't quite as good, but the mains of Harvey, Louis, and Donna carry the show despite Mike and Rachel's absence.

8. Smallville
I've only seen it once, because I got into a Superman phase (watched all the live action movies), and so I gave Smallville a shot and I'm glad I did.  It certainly delves away from the a lot of Superman lore, but not so much that it's impossible to believe.  The worst of this was definitely when Lana and Lex got together.  Ugh.  But once Lois (Erica Durance) came onto the show, it really took off.  And Tom Welling did such a great job as Clark.

7. Shameless
Another show I've only watched once, but it was so good at its peak.  You want a dysfunctional family where the kids are basically forced to raise themselves?  This is it.  It's extremely vulgar, but it feels realistic for a family of this nature, where the parental figures are largely absent.  The show definitely fell off a bit after Fiona (Emmy Rossum) left, but the next oldest kids Lip, Ian, and Debbie picked up the slack.  And who could forget about their neighbors Kev and V?  They are perhaps the best characters in the show.  I definitely want to watch this again someday.  

6. The Mandalorian
This is the best Star Wars live action show.  I know, Andor is well-made, but I connect more with The Mandalorian, plus this show has three seasons to Andor's one.  The Mandalorian has heart, great action, and adds well to the Star Wars lore.  Each episode could almost be a small mini-Star Wars movie.  I still have only season most episodes once, but I definitely plan on rewatching this someday.  Season 3 wasn't quite as gripping as the first two, but let's hope they get back to form in Season 4.  There's also a movie coming out, which I am looking forward to.

5. Game of Thrones
I'd be hard-pressed to think of a show with a higher peak than Game of Thrones.  Its first four seasons may be the best four seasons to start any show ever.  It's so well-written, made, and acted.  I have seen most episodes twice and there's so much to pick up on in its lore and world.  Also, there has still yet to be a show (IMO) that killed off its main characters as unexpectedly and viciously like Game of Thrones did.  Unfortunately, as we all know, the show did not end on a good note, but at least the first 4-6 seasons were quality TV.

4. The Walking Dead
The show that started it all.  Like Game of Thrones, it started strong and was doing incredibly well its first 4+ seasons.  But also like Game of Thrones, it tapered off in quality the longer it went.  I have fond memories of The Walking Dead: watching it with my friends, and talking about it with them and my family.  Good times.  The show seemed to peak at the Season 6 Finale/Season 7 premiere, when Negan killed both Abraham and Glenn.  That caused massive outrage from fans for two reasons: One, they hated the cliffhanger in not knowing who Negan killed, and two, how they killed off two main characters, mainly Glenn, the way they did.  Because of this outrage, the showrunners and writers really didn't kill off any more main characters for the rest of the show's run, ruining the rest of the show's run.  But I've remained a fan of the universe for a while.  In addition to this original series, I've seen the Dead City, The Ones Who Live, and the Darryl Dixon spin-offs.  I've seen some of "Fear" but not all of it.  I'll need to give that another shot someday.

3. LOST
This was the first drama I really got hooked on.  And boy, did I.  I didn't even watch the first season live.  I remember choosing "North Shore" over LOST, and boy, was that a mistake.  But I got into LOST between the break of Seasons One and Two, and from that point on, I was hooked.  I remember recording each episode on my computer (I had a TV cable and app I could do this with) and watching them first thing in the morning.  I didn't watch them live for some reason.  Anyway, I own all the seasons, I've seen each episode around five times, and it's a show I'll never tire of.  So much mystery and intrigue surrounding the island.  Yes, not every question gets answered, but you know what?  That's life.  And a lot of people think the show didn't finish that well, but I do.  I love it from start to finish.

2. Dexter
I'm gonna make a declaration here.  There is not a single character in television history that was more suited to their actor than Dexter was to Michael C. Hall.  Dude was born to play Dexter.  You could make an argument for the main character in the TV show below, I will say.  Anyway, each season has its own interesting arc, and while the later seasons aren't quite as thrilling as the earlier ones, I still find it massively entertaining.  It's hard to write a character that kills like Dexter and make us root for them, but the Dexter writers succeeded.  I could watch Michael C. Hall as Dexter spending a normal day without any of the killing or drama, and I'd still be incredibly entertained.  The New Blood spin-off was decent, and I'm really looking forward to Original Sin and Resurrection.  

1. Breaking Bad
I had to.  Breaking Bad is the perfect TV show, as I know a lot of people would agree.  It is gripping and well-made from start to finish.  Bryan Cranston absolutely kills it as Walter White.  Who knew the silly dad from Malcolm in the Middle could act like this?  I've seen BB I think three times now, and I know I'll keep rewatching it to the end of my days.  The Better Call Saul spinoff was almost as good, although I didn't want to put a spin-off on this list.  Anyway, Breaking Bad is the perfect TV drama, and it ended at just the right time.  Find a major fault with this show, I dare you.  You can't.  It's virtually flawless.  

SURVIVOR 47 FOUR WORD GAME

 Survivor 47 has had its premiere, and wow, what a shocking first boot (More on that later).  Like past seasons, I'm going to give each player remaining in the game (and the booted player) four words to describe the current state of their game, what they need to do, what I noticed, and anything that might stand out about them to me.  I'll then elaborate a tiny bit on that, especially early on considering I have a lot of players to get through.  

As always, I'll be starting with my lowest-ranked player, then going sequentially to my highest ranked player.  This first week is based off of my pre-season rankings from my other Survivor 47 post.  Let's go!

EPISODE 1 FOUR WORD GAME

Rachel: Smartly kept her distance
Andy tried to really bring in her in, and honestly, I don't know the full extent of what Andy was trying, especially that one time he seemingly woke her up to talk to her.  Is he interested in her romantically?  I doubt it, since she's married.  But Rachel smartly kept her distance from him, and they have an easy target should they go to tribal again.

Sue: Best positioned player--somehow
At least on her tribe.  She made bonds with Gabe and Caroline, and she seems to be in the mix.  She's the only other person to know about Gabe's idol other than Gabe himself.  I was quite surprised Sue wasn't instantly on the outs.

Anika: Leadership prowess a curse
Sometimes people are good at directing others, and Anika couldn't help but allow that part of her in the game.  Well, it got her a vote.  And she might be next to go after Andy, or hey, maybe even before.  She tried deflecting this at tribal, but it was a feeble attempt, in my opinion.

Sol: Wanted to see more
Didn't get a whole lot of Sol.  He wasn't the only one with only one confessional, but he felt like the most invisible player.  I was worried he might be on the bottom, but that appears to be Rome.  But I still think he's on the bottom of the alliance he's in.

Kishan: No strategic ability seen
At least not yet.  He just seems like a guy that's happy to be there and happy to contribute.  I need to see more.

Rome: Too hard too fast
My dude is digging, and not just for the idol.  He's digging himself an early hole.  He better hope his tribe doesn't go to tribal before he can repair what he's done.  I don't think we saw him fully get to the idol yet, so hopefully next episode.

Caroline: Not very memorable, unfortunately
She made a bond with Sue, and that's about it.  They seemed to bond over their mother-daughter relationships in their regular lives, which was nice.  But I need to see more.

Sierra: Well-insulated, terrible tribe
Sierra's pretty well-insulated on her tribe.  I think she would stay before Andy and possibly Anika or Rachel.  She and Sam are the most well-insulated.  I guess it was the right move to get rid of Jon, presuming Andy can help them in challenges.

Genevieve: Connection could doom her
We saw Genevieve make a connection with Rome, who is now on the outs.  We saw Jon go over Andy because Jon wasn't as good in challenges, apparently.  Well, Genevieve probably isn't as good as Rome.  I bet her name will come up if they lose, so she has to distance herself from Rome.

Teeny: Likable, smart, going far
Teeny was smart to want to keep Aysha in the mix despite Aysha being gone on the "journey".  Teeny also seems to be in with Kishan and Sol.  I think Teeny's the best-positioned on the Lavo tribe.  

Sam: Glue guy: Smart play
I like Sam wanting to be the "glue guy".  That's exactly what you want to be on your pre-merge tribe.  He smartly decided not to work with Andy and Jon, although he'll have to make sure if it's just the girls and him left that it's not him.  It shouldn't be.  

TK: Won some favor over
By getting the supplies on his own.  They may have edited it weirdly, but it sure seemed like TK came from behind to find the final key.  He seems to be a good challenge competitor.

Gabe: His idol a curse
I bet it'll be a curse.  I wonder if others will know about its power?  Even if not, he'll have a target on his back once he plays it once.  He almost for sure will go home without using it fully.  I like his play to get it, but now he's gotta work on the social game.

Andy: Almost worst first episode
What an almost terrible start for Andy.  I feel like 9/10 tribes vote him out after what he did.  Fortunately for him, he was on the one tribe that didn't.  But he's going to have to win them some immunities if he wants to make the merge.  

Tiyana: Our next worm queen!
So if I'm not mistaken, that's Jaime Lynn, Kendra, and now Tiyana that have eaten worms.  Hey, this is all I could really remember!  

Kyle: Needs more air time
Didn't see much.  Kyle seemed to make bonds and work well in camp, but that's all I remember.  He mentioned his small town with four traffic signals, but that's really about it.

Aysha: Volunteering almost bad call
If I heard correctly, it seems Aysha volunteered to try to win her tribe supplies.  Rome was right, not very smart to miss out on those first few bonding hours.  Fortunately for her, I don't think that'll hurt her in the long run.

And to our departed player...

Jon: Most surprising first boot
To me, perhaps.  Jeff hyped him up as a great storyteller, Andy was clearly set up all episode to be the guy going, and yet the rest decided on Jon.  Sigh.  He would've been a good narrator for the season.  Someone else will have to step up.  Fortunately, we have four other people who speak into a microphone for a living in Aysha, Gabe, Sam, and Rome.

As Jeff Probst says, "All right!" Time for my new power rankings.  I factor in a lot of things, like who I think has a chance of winning, who I think might be next to go, who is in a bad spot, etc.  And I share how far off they were from my previous ranking, which in this case would be my pre-season ranking, so definitely a few I moved a lot.  And without further ado, here they are!

17. Andy (-12)
16. Rome (-3)
15. Anika (+1)
14. Genevieve (-4)
13. Caroline (-1)
12. Gabe (-6)
11. Sol (+4)
10. Rachel (+8)
9. Kishan (+5)
8. Aysha (-7)
7. Sierra (+4)
6. Sam (+2)
5. TK (+2)
4. Tiyana (-1)
3. Teeny (+6)
2. Kyle (0)
1. Sue (+17!)

Biggest rise: Sue (+17!)
Biggest fall: Andy (-12)

I was way off on Sue, or so I think.  I thought she'd come off as more abrasive, but she's actually been sweet and welcoming to others.  Yes, she'd likely be a huge target mid-merge, but it's still very early.  Andy fell off with his disastrous episode, and he's clearly on the outs of a possible disaster tribe.  There's always a lot of movement early on, so expect a lot of movement next week as well.  See you then!

EPISODE 2 FOUR WORD GAME

Andy: Recovery was okay, considering
Andy could've spiraled further, but I think he recovered okay.  Sure, he could've kept the idol to himself, but he didn't have too many people on his side to help him.  Fortunately for him, there seem to be some cracks within Gata.

Rome: Too much for some
I can see why Survivor cast him.  But Rome is too much to handle at times.  Also, with him losing trust in Teeny for her showing Kishan his idol (box), does he have any close allies?  Is Genevieve even there?

Anika: Impending paranoia extremely likely
Anika was shown accusing Sam and Sierra of being a couple (WTF) and she seems like someone that's going to maybe be the next on Gata to go paranoid.  I don't have a great feeling about her chances with Sam wanting to protect Andy.  At least Sam included her on his idol find.

Genevieve: Invisible lady, not good
Genevieve was the only one not to get a confessional in Ep. 2.  Not good for her chances.  She seems like a forgettable boot, at best early merge.  We need more!

Caroline: Solid alliance, but underling
I believe Caroline will be perceived as Sue's sidekick rather than the other way around.  So it's good Caroline has a tight bond with someone, and she should definitely stick with Sue for a long time, but if she wants to win she'll have to betray Sue before FTC.

Gabe: Right call it seems
Gabe didn't have much of a choice, but he could've aligned with TK, Kyle, and Tiyana and taken out Sue.  But he would've easily been the #4 there.  Now, he's one of the two men who will be counted on for challenge strength.  He lost a shield, but he has people to work with.  And I think it was smart to play the idol in case of a tie.  He wasn't sure where Tiyana was going.  And, it gets the target off his back and he can always find another (Hopefully more stealthily).

Sol: Sifu of this season
Sure, Sifu really only had character moments, but we never really saw any strategy from him and he was the mergatory boot.  I think the same might happen to Sol.  We just aren't getting much.

Rachel: Puzzle gooddess--watch out
Not sure if anyone noticed, but Rachel killed it in the puzzle in the premiere episode in the very first challenge.  Then she kills it in the maze puzzle with the peg.  I think Rachel could be one of the best puzzle players the show has ever seen--up there with Spencer and Rob.  

Kishan: Being included, that's good
Kishan's lone "highlight" was Teeny showing him Rome's idol box.  It seems people want to include him since he's likable.  He'll just have to use that and start being a little more aggressive when the time comes.

Aysha: Quiet episode, slight worry
My winner pick had a quiet episode, but the red Lavo tribe basically all had a quiet episode, outside of Rome.  I do worry about her chances, but a lot of winners have had quiet episodes.  Erika, Gabler, and Maryanne all did.

Sierra: Will get targeted eventually
For being Sam's #2.  It may not be until post-merge, but I think she goes before Sam to weaken him.  Their bond will no doubt be seen by others, and I think Sierra will be a casualty of Sam's game.  Her choice on whether to turn on the girls when the time comes will be interesting to see.

Sam: Sloppy but effective game
Sam's playing a decent but sloppy game, pretty common among those below 27 years of age or so.  It'll be hard for him to win a FTC vote, and it'll be harder for him to get there.  For the most part, I like how's he handling his game, and yes, it's smart to keep Andy because otherwise he's the lone guy and clearly the #4 in the tribe.

Tiyana: Played with emotions, possibly
Tiyana said she wanted to play a game where she could separate her emotions from the game.  But she didn't, as she voted for someone in TK who she didn't like.  But it could also have been strategic.  Had she voted with them, it would've forced a tie, and if she backtracks after that, it only looks worse.  Likely smart move, but I worry this may be a sign of things to come for her.

Teeny: Trustworthiness the biggest key
Teeny lost some trust with Rome after showing Kishan Rome's idol.  It'll be hard for Teeny to win back that trust, but Teeny seems to have it with Aysha, Kishan, and Sol (it seems, at least).  Hard to say where Genevieve stands.  But I like where Teeny stands and I don't see Teeny going anytime soon.

Kyle: Huge blow to game
Losing your closest ally in your first vote is a huge blow to Kyle's game.  I can't remember any winners that has happened to, at least not in the new era.  He's got a long way to go to recover.  And with an episode where they went to tribal and Kyle still didn't have too much to say, I'm not feeling so hot about his chances.

Sue: Gabler type game coming?
I could see it.  Sue, like Gabler, survived the first vote despite their name being out there (Gabler threw his own name out there, but that's beside the point).  She has Caroline and Gabe like Gabler had Sami and Owen.  She'll have to lay low come the merge and strike when the time is right.  I could see it... but I worry about this tribe's strength without TK.

And to our departed player...

TK: Overconfidence a death knell
One thing that cost TK his game was his overconfidence.  He felt he had both Tiyana and Gabe (along with Kyle), when he had neither.  He also didn't vibe too well with his tribe outside of Kyle and him talking on the beach when Tiyana and Sue were trying to rest certainly didn't help.  Doesn't matter if you're the best athlete on your tribe--you have to have a good head on your shoulders.

New power rankings!  Clearly, there's going to be a lot of changes.  I have to consider screen time and which tribe may be going to tribal next (I don't think Red/Lavo is going next week, either).  It's going to be crazy.  Here it is:

16. Anika (-1)
15. Rome (+1)
14. Andy (+3)
13. Genevieve (+1)
12. Sol (-1)
11. Kishan (-2)
10. Kyle (-8)
9. Caroline (+4)
8. Rachel (+2)
7. Aysha (+1)
6. Sierra (+1)
5. Gabe (+7)
4. Tiyana (0)
3. Sue (-2)
2. Teeny (+1)
1. Sam (+5)

Biggest rise: Gabe (+7)
Biggest fall: Kyle (-8)

This is basically broken up into sections.  #16-14 are the ones I'm most worried about leaving.  #13-10 are the invisible bunch.  #9-6 are the sidekicks or people that aren't invisible but we need to see more of.  Gabe and Tiyana are outside winner contenders (would need to do a lot more) with #3-1 being my winner contenders at the moment.  Sam grabs the top spot after a 16 confessional episode (Wow!).  I know he had the idol, but my goodness.  It'll be interesting to see if anyone can hold the top spot for more than one week.  My thoughts are it'll be tough--I'm feeling like changing that spot nearly every week.  We'll see!

EPISODE 3 FOUR WORD GAME

Anika: Clearly her or guys
Anika went on a journey and lied to the tribe about being able to refuse to play and saving her vote, then confided in just the girls the actual truth.  Now, she said she's against Andy, but we can tell she's also against Sam, although they're connected through Sierra.  It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out if they go to tribal again.

Rome: Power saving him--temporarily
Rome's idol and now steal a vote are saving him for the moment.  But you know his tribe would turn on him, even Teeny and Kishan if they had full opportunity to.  He's really becoming a villain, something we haven't had much of in the New Era.  I'm looking forward to his downfall.  I just hope it's not at FTC and he's a zero vote finalist.  That's not satisfying enough.

Andy: Maybe create chaos yourself
Sure, there's some underlying tension in the tribe, mainly between Anika and Sam.  But what Andy could do is create even more tension between them himself.  The most common thing people have done is telling one person what the other said about them.  Andy could really put himself in the driver's seat of the tribe if he did that.

Genevieve: At tribal, still nothing
I feel like I don't know Genevieve at all.  She now has the fewest confessionals of the season, and three episodes in, she still has fewer than Jon got in his one episode.  Make it make sense!  Her tribe goes to tribal and she's barely a part of the talks.  We got affirmation of a core four, with two pairs (Teeny and Kishan, Rome and her), so we know she's still tight with Rome.  But that's it.  We saw her on the sit out bench looking for an idol/advantage, but I really can't recall much else.

Sol: Becoming quiet fan favorite
Killing it in challenges.  Providing a voice for the people at home.  Dude is quietly becoming a fan favorite.  I was really worried for him at the last tribal.  Now there's going to be a clash between him and Rome.  Will they even go to tribal again before mergatory?  I don't think they will.  But perhaps that rift will still be there at that time.

Kishan: Most level-headed member
If there was one person on Lavo I was not worried about in the vote, it was Kishan.  Dude has zero enemies, and even though he struggled a bit (along with Teeny), there was no talk of him name being written down.  He's level-headed and he's got a majority alliance.  He should at least make the jury.

Kyle: Longshot in current tribe
I hate to say it, but after what we saw in Episode 3, I worry about Kyle.  He tried to win Sue back over, but she didn't seem to want to budge at all.  She is going to hold a grudge against him for voting for her until one of them's out of the game, it seems.  And we know Caroline will stick with her.  So, he's going to have to get Gabe and Tiyana on his side, somehow.  Or just hope the four of them turn on each other.

Caroline: Still the number two
Don't know what else to say about her.  Caroline and Sue's bond seems pretty strong.  I believe it was Gabe saying if you have them you have two votes, but he really should be looking at it like they're two that won't turn on each other, so they need to be broken up.

Rachel: Again, carrying her tribe
It's largely gone unnoticed since no one has verbally spoken it on the show, but Rachel is literally carrying Gata in the challenges.  If not for her, they may have gone to three straight tribals.  This last episode, Tuku was ahead in the puzzle, but then Gata got to it and passed them at the puzzle stage, clearly thanks to Rachel.  They cannot vote her out.  Period.

Sierra: Fire clue in intro
I'm not gonna talk too much about the game for Sierra, but instead the intro/theme.  In it, I noticed a machete striking flint right after her name was shown.  Does she maybe go out in fire at Final 4?  I'm going to try to remember that for the future.  I think she could get that far, especially if she sticks with Sam.

Gabe: Needs a number one
Sue and Caroline are each other's number one, it seems.  Who is Gabe's?  Tiyana?  It's not Kyle.  I think he needs a number one, because even if he sticks with Sue and Caroline, they'll turn on him before turning on each other.  

Tiyana: Positive comment, purpled episode
Two things.  One, Tiyana was the only one to not get a confessional in Episode 3.  Not good.  Two, her comment to Kyle for carrying them was awesome to see, and basically the only notable thing she did this episode.  

Sue: Stubbornness could be downfall
It just seems like Sue is one of those stubborn... middle-aged ladies who once they believe something they refuse to go another way.  That's not particularly good in the game of Survivor.  I really hope she can get past Kyle voting for her and move on.  We'll see.  By the way, that was not Sue's "blood" in the preview for next week.  It was too bright and vivid to be blood; more like paint.

Teeny: Strategic leader of tribe
Teeny seems to be the one we hear most of regarding strategy and voting on their tribe.  That's good news.  Teeny is well-insulated and even though they struggled in the challenge, the other members in the tribe decided not to punish Teeny for it.  I still like Teeny's chances.

Sam: Bond will cause target
Way to go, Anika.  She let slip that Sierra and Sam are close, so their bond may be targeted at the mergatory or soon after the merge.  That's not good for Sam.  He'll have a lot of work to do to downplay his threat level.  Also, dude needs to try more foods, lol.

And to our departed player...

Aysha: Journey sunk her game
I honestly think her going on the journey sunk her game.  A foursome formed while she was gone and she could never fully recover.  It sucks.  And this is my second winner pick to not even make the merge.  ARGH!  Coincidentally, both have been African-American women.  I got too hyped up into thinking I was picking the next Maryanne.  Oh well.

New power rankings!  It's crazy how all three boots have been unexpected, from a narrative perspective.  We may eventually get a string of invisible players booted, but we're sure getting our money's worth for the players being voted out.  I might have to change things up.  Here's the list:

15. Genevieve (-2)
14. Kyle (-4)
13. Sol (-1)
12. Rome (+3)
11. Anika (+5)
10. Andy (+4)
9. Caroline (0)
8. Tiyana (-4)
7. Sierra (-1)
6. Gabe (-1)
5. Kishan (+6)
4. Sue (-1)
3. Sam (-2)
2. Rachel (+6)
1. Teeny (+1)

Biggest rise: Kishan and Rachel (+6), Also Anika (+5) and Andy (+4)
Biggest fall: Kyle and Tiyana (-4)

Yet another new #1!  Again, I have my rankings in groups.  15-13 are too invisible (Yes, even Kyle).  12-10 are chaotic and could go in the next vote or last until the end of the game.  Hard to say.  For 9-5, I don't really see a winning game for them, but it's not impossible.  4-1 are my winner contenders.  Yes, Rachel has entered my winner contenders.  She's very smart, and I think she could win over a jury.  If she gets a group and gets to the end, watch out.  Can't make her #1 yet, but perhaps if she has a good episode.  

AFTER EPISODE 4 FOUR WORD GAME

Genevieve: Out of literally nowhere
I'm sure most fans of Survivor were thinking, "Who is this chick?" as Genevieve seemed to come out of nowhere to make a move.  Good on her.  She wasn't happy with Kishawn throwing her name out, and she acted on it.  She'll certainly be jumping up a bit for me.  

Kyle: The next one skunked
The term "skunked" I take from Once Upon an Island and their podcast, and it means when a player gets 0 confessionals in an episode.  No one got skunked episode 1.  But Genevieve was in episode 2, Tiyana in episode 3, and now Kyle in this past episode.  That's never a good sign.  But maybe they're changing things and hiding the true contenders from us early.

Sol: Patience of a saint
Seriously.  How he didn't lash out at Rome, perhaps even physically, is beyond me.  I wouldn't have been able to restrain myself.  I know... physically lashing out at someone is a one-way ticket to getting ejected from the game, but Sol showed true patience and composure.  He even voted the correct way, realizing where the votes were headed.

Rome: Most villainous recent player
Rome went from annoying to straight-up villainous.  We haven't had a villain like this in a long time.  If there's a Heroes vs. Villains 2, he has to be on there.  His ultimatum/threat to Sol severed any chance they had of working together and he better hope Sol doesn't get an army come the merge.  I can't see Rome surviving long past the merge unless he gets completely nerfed and ends up being an afterthought goat.

Anika: "Breadwinners" not particularly smart
I believe(?) it was Anika who came up with the name for their alliance.  You don't really want to do that unless you're in control or the person who you share it with you trust 100%.  It just looks like you're flaunting your alliance.  You want to downplay it always.  Not a very smart thing to do.

Andy: Finale goat best case
Andy's becoming that lovable klutz that isn't threatening, which isn't completely bad for him.  But the down side to it is that no one will think he deserves to win if he gets to the end.  Think Owen 2.0, if you will.  I can see Andy losing at the end.  Also, smart of him to not back down with the amulet.  And this version of the amulet means he or Caroline or Teeny will be targeted come the merge.  Watch out.

Caroline: Amulet play surprisingly smart
Caroline didn't need her vote as much as the other two, yet she stood her ground.  If I had time to think after the scenario for the amulet was revealed, I would've thought Caroline would've caved, not Teeny.  But now she has a small target on her back.  But she did the best she could given the circumstances.

Tiyana: Lacking content since vote
First she was skunked and now she's forgettable.  It's not a good look for Tiyana.  Fortunately, Genevieve came out of nowhere to make a move, and Tiyana can too.  All I can remember is the Sue idol situation.  Good for her to question Sue and not really trust what she was saying.  But she and Kyle alone won't be enough to take on the other 3.

Sierra: Tension in the middle
Sierra is trying to play both sides, and she's starting to get a little heat or tension for it.  She and Sam had a bit of a spat over her telling Andy about her girl's alliance and not him.  Sometimes playing the middle ends up blowing up in people's faces (Sarah in Cagayan, most notably), so she has to be careful.

Gabe: Screen time down consistently
Gabe has gone from 11 confessionals to 7 to 3 to 1, dropping each week.  Not good.  But hey, at least he hasn't been skunked.  Also, I question his apparent blind loyalty to Sue.  I'm not sure I would be that loyal to her.  

Sue: Crazy side coming out
I think as the days go on, the lack of food and sleep is making Sue crazier and crazier.  Yes, she got an idol, but her covering it up was too funny.  Also, her telling Kyle(?) that she's 45 is hilarious.  I wouldn't buy that for a second.  I worry about her being taken seriously later in the game.  She may be a finale goat.  She's becoming like an older Carolyn.

Sam: Shouldn't have accosted quickly
When Andy told Sam about the "Breadwinners" alliance, Sam shouldn't have accosted Sierra so quickly.  He should've kept it in his back pocket.  Maybe pull it out when he decides to turn on the girls.  He could've used that against her later in the game.  Oh well.

Rachel: Puzzle queen reigns supreme!
Yet again.  I don't recall if they got to the puzzle third or second, but Rachel again got Gata in first with her puzzle prowess.  If puzzles were as common in individual challenges, I'd have Rachel pegged as a potential immunity challenge threat, but they are not.  One thing I just realized, the four words for this game have the initials PQRS, which is tough to do, get four in a row in the alphabet.  

Teeny: Down, but not out
Wow.  Not a good episode for Teeny.  First they cave quickly and lose their vote.  Then, Teeny is completely on the outs when Kishawn is voted out and Teeny loses their closest ally.  Yikes.  It's definitely something Teeny can recover from, especially if they rope in Sol and go against Rome and Genevieve.  

And to our departed player...

Kishawn: One tiny fatal mistake
You never want to casually throw someone's name out there, even as a fake target.  You don't know what they're capable of and how they might react when it inevitably gets back to them.  You almost have to play the game as if everyone can hear what you're saying, because no one keeps their mouth shut in Survivor.  

And now our new power rankings!  Crazy how the players who have been voted out I had ranked 4th, 5th, 7th, and 5th, the episode before they left.  Just crazy.  I have no idea who to put at #1... we'll just see how it goes.

14. Sol (-1)
13. Anika (-2)
12. Kyle (+2)
11. Tiyana (-3)
10. Rachel (-8)
9. Rome (+3)
8. Caroline (+1)
7. Andy (+3)
6. Sue (-2)
5. Gabe (+1)
4. Genevieve (+11)
3. Sierra (+4)
2. Teeny (-1)
1. Sam (+2)

Biggest rise: Genevieve (+11!)
Biggest fall: Rachel (-8)

Sam is back to the top spot, somehow.  I don't feel particularly comfortable with that, but it is what it is.  Rome jumps up slightly, but I'm still worried about the ginormous target he's painted on his back.  Genevieve makes a HUGE jump and she's become a dark horse contender for me.  And by the way, the rankings are grouped as such: 14-11: Longshots, potential upcoming targets.  10-5: Not the best winner's chance, but not an upcoming target, either (Or so I think).  4-1: Winner contenders.  Seems weird having Sierra there, but if she turns on Sam at the right time, I could see it.  

AFTER EPISODE 5 FOUR WORD GAME

Sol: Absolutely no winning equity
All of our winners in the new era (minus Gabler) have had winning equity up to the mergatory.  Not Sol.  He's done well in terms of being affable and patient, but hasn't made any moves.  I think he'll either be a mergatory casualty or an easy boot for the majority once they've gotten rid of the legit threats.  I hope the latter for Sol, but fear the former.

Kyle: Targeted for challenge strength?
We still haven't seen much of Kyle's social or strategic game since the TK vote, and that doesn't bode too well for him.  The same thing happened to Hunter last season, who was eventually targeted and voted out at final 9.  I think a similar thing will happen to Kyle.

Tiyana: Keep your mouth shut!
Tiyana only hurt herself by spilling the beans about Gabe, and then lying to him about it later, saying she revealed less than she actually had.  Ugh.  Did she not think Gabe would fact-check with Sue, a known ally of his?  I once thought of Tiyana as a Dee-type player... certainly not anymore.

Rachel: Cross tribal connections vital
After losing Anika, Rachel's connections she made at the reward will be extremely important for her survival in the game.  She made connections with Teeny and Caroline, and they'll have to band together.  If the Tuku tribe comes together and brings in Rachel and Teeny, that would be enough for majority.  Of course, stupid mergatory always has to split them up.

Rome: More human side showing
Wow, he's not complete evil! (Lol JK).  Rome showed emotion after winning immunity, which was a bit surprising to see from him.  Also, I think he handled the chaos after tribal fairly well.  He's still not trusting of Teeny, which is fine.  But he'll have to bond with players on other tribes to get far.

Caroline: Becoming more vocal presence
I think?  Caroline being on the winning reward team helped her build cross-tribal connections, and I'd argue she did the best of almost anyone there.  She has Sue, and Gabe through Sue, plus connections now to Teeny and Rachel.  Not bad.

Andy: Brilliant play, underestimated completely
Andy setting up the "Breadwinners" to feed him a fake plan was brilliant.  Typically, players won't expect to be fed a fake plan, but he was.  He then acted perfectly up until the vote, not acting too desperate, but desperate enough to fool Anika and Rachel.  And in the days leading up to the vote, he proved to Sierra and Sam his loyalty and just did it brilliantly.  How far he's come.

Sue: Not winning, but important
I don't think Sue can win anymore.  I just don't see it.  However, I do think she will play a very important role in determining the winner.  How?  I'm not sure yet.  Maybe her idol will be a part of it.  She handled the Gabe/Tiyana situation fairly well, and I can't see her being a threat for a bit.  Plus, she has numbers.

Gabe: Damage control to do
Gabe will likely be a threat come the mergatory, so he'll have some damage control to do.  He smartly didn't confront Tiyana right away, at least about her lying to him.  I'm sure he'll seek (and likely get) his revenge on her.

Genevieve: Needs control, can't fade
Genevieve's game is at a crossroads, as all players' games are at the merge.  She'll need a move, to control a vote, to make a play, something.  If she just fades into the background and goes with the majority, she has no chance of winning.  This last episode wasn't bad for her, but it wasn't good enough for me to think she's winning... yet.

Sierra: Repairing relationship hugely important
Can Sierra repair her relationship with Rachel?  She took out Rachel's closest ally and turned on their Breadwinners alliance.  Rachel may say they're good, but will they actually be?  Will Sierra be able to see through it?  All questions that will likely get answered.  If it's just her, Sam, and Andy, I don't like their chances.

Teeny: Winner or final boss
I'm still on the fence about what kind of season 47 is.  I keep thinking it might be a 43-type season where we have an unexpected winner and all the threats go out before Final Tribal Council.  Either way, I keep seeing narrative hints that Teeny will play a huge role.  Sure, she's not in the best position, but a lot of winners weren't come the merge, like Yam-Yam, Maryanne, and even Kenzie.

Sam: A smart move regardless
It was smart to take out Anika, and Sam got his way.  Surely Anika would've turned on him come the merge.  But it's good Sam got his way and not Sierra.  But like I said for Sierra, they'll need more than just the three of them.  I don't recall Sam making a big connection, but I could see him maybe picking up Kyle and Tiyana, for starters.

And to our departed player...

Anika: Don't underestimate anyone ever
And that's what she did with Andy.  She assumed he wasn't that smart and would go along with their plan they made up.  Even if people have an outburst, it could be for show.  You never know.  People don't just get on Survivor for being incompetent crazy cooks (well, usually).  Her underestimating Andy and not solidifying herself with both Sierra and Sam cost her.

And now, our pre-merge power rankings.  How are things shaping up right before they come together, only to get split apart again, because... reasons?  Here are my pre-mergatory rankings.

13. Tiyana (-2)
12. Kyle (0)
11. Sol (+3)
10. Sue (-4) 
9. Rachel (+1)
8. Rome (+1)
7. Gabe (-2)
6. Genevieve (-2)
5. Sierra (-2)
4. Caroline (+4)
3. Andy (+4)
2. Sam (-1)
1. Teeny (+1)

Biggest rise: Caroline and Andy (+4)
Biggest fall: Sue (-4)

Tiyana takes my bottom spot due to her opening her big mouth.  And yes, I have 3 of the bottom 4 being Tuku members.  I believe their tribe is about to be demolished come the merge due to lack of cohesion.  Sue falls for me simply because I just thought I had her ranked too high, and honestly everyone in front her stands a better chance of winning in front of a jury.  Remember, she's like an older Carolyn (44).  Caroline and Andy rise; I think they're both in a good spot now.  Caroline didn't make a big move, but she was the center point of the trio that talked outside of the cornhole game.  Teeny and Sam flip flop again.  I might just keep that up for a while.  

AFTER EPISODE 6 FOUR WORD GAME

Tiyana: Laying low then striking
I'm guessing that's her strategy, at least.  Her name was brought up by Rome (technically Kyle, but Rome made it worse).  I think she'll lay low and try not to have a target, then perhaps make a move when the time is right.  Also, what will she do with that information about Sue?  It's pretty clear Sue has the idol from Tiyana's perspective.

Kyle: Calling it, challenge beast
I think Kyle's going to be a challenge beast.  We saw a few hints of it in the pre-merge, such as when Tiyana praised him.  I think that could be his downfall, because once he loses he might be "on the chopping block".

Sol: Won war, now what?
It'll be interesting to see where Sol's mind is now and who he next wants out.  Likely a non-Lavo this time.  Rome did throw his name out, but not one person voted for him.  So it seems like he might be safe for a while.

Sue: Truth can't come out
It really will make or break Sue's game, whether or not the truth about her idol and the red paint comes out.  So far, Caroline knows and Tiyana seems to know as well.  It might behoove Sue to tie up that loose end with Tiyana.

Rachel: Another number... anything more?
Rachel seems to be part of what I'm guessing will be a Lavo/Gata majority, perhaps with a few Tuku members.  She'll likely be in the majority for a while, but what else?  She'll need to do something to make an impact post-merge.

Gabe: Keep target level low
Gabe had a surprisingly quiet mergatory episode.  Guess his name might come up next episode.  If his close ties to Sue go undetected, watch out.  I do worry about Tuku falling apart, but we'll see.

Genevieve: Always check odd things
Survivor has taught us to always check things that are odd, or sticking out, or unusual.  Genevieve did that and it earned her an advantage and food and a chance at immunity.  I wonder if those smarts she showed there will cause someone to think she's a threat.  We'll see.

Sierra: Holding Gata together crucial
There might be the start of some cracks on Gata considering Andy got some votes as the backup target.  He's shown in the preview to be upset about this, possibly turning on Sam and Sierra, which wouldn't be good for them.  I think if anyone is to reel Andy in, it's Sierra, not Sam.  She seems to have the better temperament for it.

Caroline: Smartly kept idol secret
Caroline figured out Sue's idol secret, and she smartly confided in her and (so far) has kept it to herself.  I like the way Caroline's playing, but I also must say it doesn't seem like a winning game... yet.

Andy: Doesn't have winning temperament
I mean, we knew that after episode 1, frankly.  But Andy possibly going after Sam or Sierra would just be foolish and an emotional decision that will cost him the game.  Sure, it's a move to pad his resumé, but who is he going to rely upon to continue to vote with him? 

Sam: Next episode most crucial
For Sam's winning chances.  He's already been talked about as a threat to win.  Everyone knows it.  Now Andy is going to be mad at him for not sticking up for him more, which frankly, Sam could have.  The next episode will sink Sam's chances or he'll remain a legit threat to win.

Teeny: Obvious winner is obvious
I'm sorry, but Teeny almost seems to obvious as a winner at this point.  She's clearly not going to be targeted for a while, if ever.  She clearly has winner clues and is being framed narratively in a positive light.  I might keep her #1 until she does something dumb or the show paints her in a bad light.  

And to our departed player...

Rome: Most entertaining early boot
By far.  Dude was meant for TV.  I don't think he'd be perfect for hosting Survivor, more like a Survivor aftershow or reunion.  If they ever bring back the live reunions, have Rome host them.  Anyway, Rome stirred the pot WAY too much post-merge, and he should've realized people would fact-check.  He treated everyone like they were kids that would instantly believe anything he says.  Good personality, bad Survivor player.

All right, new power rankings!  A shake-up, possibly?  Oh yeah.  There's a few people moving quite a bit!

12. Tiyana (+1)
11. Andy (-8)
10. Sam (-8)
9. Kyle (+3)
8. Rachel (+1)
7. Sue (+3)
6. Sol (+5)
5. Genevieve (+1)
4. Sierra (+1)
3. Gabe (+4)
2. Caroline (+2)
1. Teeny (0)

Biggest rise: Sol (+5)
Biggest fall: Andy and Sam (-8)

Yep, I did that.  I worry about Andy and Sam.  Andy's volatile, and Sam is a huge threat.  This season has had blindside after blindside.  I'm calling either Andy or Sam going next week, or one of them going at a split tribal (whether that be at 12 next episode or 10).  Tiyana is still in a terrible spot so she remains at the bottom.  The rest is a bunch of fluff and I'm just waiting for someone to emerge.  Caroline at #2 is not a typo.  I like her chances.  She is slowly emerging as a very smart player, like Erika did in 41.  Teeny will remain at #1.  

AFTER EPISODE 7 FOUR WORD GAME

Andy: No fact checking, dude?
We didn't even see Andy go to Sam or Sierra to fact-check what Sol told him.  What Sol said was basically a lie.  Sam didn't throw his name out there.  But he also didn't defend him, either.  Andy does seem to be getting more focus but it's unbridled focus, if that makes sense.  Like his game is going to blow up at some point.  But we're getting so much focus on him that it makes me think he may be in the show for a while.

Sam: Connections with others key
Sam seems to have built some connections with Teeny, but we're unsure if he has Rachel and Andy seems to have jumped ship.  He'll need more if he's going to survive the next few votes.

Kyle: Target once he loses
It's pretty clear that once Kyle doesn't win immunity, he's going to be a target.  He's shown himself to be a challenge threat, and I'm sure everyone finds him likable.  I'll be surprised if he survives multiple votes without the necklace, to be honest.  

Rachel: Almost completely screwed over
Thank goodness she wasn't.  She had no chance to save herself, so I wonder if she would've played her SITD.  Maybe she'll answer that in a post-game interview.  Anyway, it seems the Sol-Rachel bridge may form a bond between the old Gata and Lavo tribes to team up on Tuku.  We shall see.

Sue: Becoming just another number
Sometimes there are players that go along with the majority and scoot along each vote without ever being in danger.  That seems to be Sue.  I think she'll last until near the finale, but I don't see much winner equity at this point.  She's clearly in a good spot.  Of four people that could be voted for, she was the only one whose name did not come up.  But she also didn't get any confessionals this last episode, which is not good.

Sol: Becoming fan favorite mastermind
We love a person making moves behind the scenes, putting on a good show and getting us to root for them.  That's Sol for us this season.  Like Genevieve (see below), he may become too likable for his own good, but it'll be fun to root for him until it's his time to go.

Genevieve: She likes chaotic men
Apparently!  First Rome now Andy.  If she successfully dumps Andy, and maybe uses Gabe to her advantage as well, watch out.  She could build a good jury case for herself.  But I'm thinking other players might see this before it's too late.

Sierra: Too invisible post merge
This is what I was worried about for Sierra, that she'd become too invisible post-merge.  However, that is largely due to the focus not being on a vote surrounding her or someone she's targeting, so it's not the worst thing.  We're just not really getting anything from her.

Gabe: Likely an upcoming target
Gabe knows it.  We might see an idol hunt from him.  With Tuku not even able to show they're not that strong of a fivesome, they still had to turn on each other.  And I'm not the most confident that Sue and Caroline will have his back.

Caroline: Her seat warming up
Caroline's Tukus are going to start to get targeted and her name came up this episode... by Gabe!  Someone who she is kind of in an alliance with.  I had her so high because I was so sure she'd be lasting a long time in this game.  Now I'm not so sure.

Teeny: Still in zero danger
It's funny, almost.  We may have a winner whose name never comes up as a threat nor as a target.  Unlikely, but so far that's the case for Teeny.  Can't remember if that's ever happened in Survivor history.

And to our departed player...

Tiyana: Unlucky, but bad positioning
Yes, Tiyana got unlucky with the tribe configurations.  It seemed like only the Tukus would turn on her.  She also got unlucky Rachel was saved.  But she was on the bottom of Tuku since the TK vote essentially, and we saw hints of it way back.  Not entirely luck-based, but it didn't help, either.

New power rankings!  Again, I'm gonna shake things up.  I Gata.  Get it?  Haha.

11. Kyle (-2)
10. Gabe (-7)
9. Caroline (-7)
8. Sam (+2)
7. Sierra (-3)
6. Sue (+1)
5. Rachel (+3)
4. Genevieve (0)
3. Sol (+3)
2. Andy (+9)
1. Teeny (0)

Biggest rise: Andy (+9)
Biggest fall: Gabe and Caroline (-7)

This has been the hardest season for me to pinpoint the next tier of players after my winner pick (Teeny).  I somehow have Andy and Sol top 3.  I think the Tukus are in big trouble, which is why 3 of them make the bottom 3 and Sue isn't too high.  I think Rachel's scare will make her safe for a while, so I'm not too worried about her anymore.  Sam and/or Sierra, though, I feel could get targeted in one of the next few votes.

Top Seven Heartbreaking Sports Defeats for Me

Ah, Sports.  You experience the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.  In this, I am going to go over my top six heartbreaking sports moments and the top ten happiest sports moments.  Why six?  Because only seven have been painful enough to be worthy of being on this list, thankfully.  Some of these left me angry, some left me sad, and some left me depressed.  Let's get to it!

7. Gonzaga gets upset by UCLA in the Sweet 16 - 2006
I remember this game.  I was so upset.  I wanted to cry like Adam Morrison.  Gonzaga should have won.  I had just become a fan of their basketball program.  The way the game ended was just the worst.  Turnovers, poor decisions, and poor defense led to Gonzaga's demise.  Fortunately, they got their revenge 15 years later.  But it was too late to heal the pain.  

6. Seahawks lose divisional round game to the Packers - 2020
Jimmy Graham was short.  I'll stick by that to this day.  Had he been marked short, the Packers would have faced a fourth down, likely resulting in a punt.  Or perhaps a fourth down stop.  The completion to Davante Adams moments before was another dagger to the Hawks chances.  Neither should have happened.  The Hawks were the better team, and I whole-heartedly believe they would have beaten the 49ers in the NFC Championship game the following week, or at least put up a better effort than the Packers did.  I will forever point to this game as the end of the Russell Wilson run, so to speak.  This was, I believe, the last playoff game Wilson played for us.  We didn't make the playoffs the following season, and after that season, Wilson was traded to Denver.

5. Mariners lose Game 3 of the ALDS to the Astros - 2022
The 18-inning marathon did not have the ghost runner rule, so that's why it went so long.  Of course, the Mariners had plenty of chances and had a superb start by George Kirby.  This was the first home playoff game for the Mariners since 2001, and their most recent playoff game as of the time of this post.  The Mariners were already down two games to zero, and would have to have won the next two games to have won the series, which is why it's only #5.  But the Mariners had their chances, and we knew Jeremy Pena's home run in the Top of the 18th was the nail in our coffin.  So to this day, the Mariners still have not scored a run in a home playoff game since 2001.  

4. Mariners lose in the ALCS to the Yankees - 2001
I was only 12 years old, so this moment isn't too vivid.  But the Mariners were supposed to finally get to the World Series.  They won 116 games.  Not getting to the World Series after that kind of regular season is one of the biggest disappointments in MLB history.  And the Mariners have not returned to the ALCS since this series, and it took 21 years just to get back to the playoffs.  I couldn't single out just one game, because none of them stick out to me individually.  Just knowing we should've gone on to the World Series is pain enough.  I think the team was worn out, and I also think they put too much effort into the regular season and matching the Cubs record of 116 wins.

3. Mariners lose Game 1 of the ALDS to the Astros - 2022
Yep, two from this series are on the list.  It stung.  We had the lead going into the bottom of the 9th.  We were on a roll and about to win our third playoff game in a row.  No one was expecting us to win this series, and we were three outs away from taking a 1-0 series lead on our division rivals.  Then, with runners aboard, Scott Servais brings in Robbie Ray to face Yordan Alvarez, who hits a walk-off home run to win it.  Just brutal for all Mariners fans.  Servais will likely be long remembered for this decision.  Like Carroll's decision to run the ball (see below), it was the turning point of the organization.  And not in a good way.  Who knows how the series would have gone if someone like Swanson was brought in instead, and we managed to hold onto the lead in game one.  That 2022 Mariners team was a team of destiny, until they weren't.

2. Seahawks lose Super Bowl XLIX - 2015
You might be surprised that this is not #1.  To me, it helps that the Hawks won the Super Bowl the previous year.  It sucks not being able to repeat, no doubt.  But the thing that bothers me most is that Jermaine Kearse's insane catch which put the Seahawks inside the 10-yard line doesn't have as much impact as it could have.  Kearse's catch, if it or a subsequent play resulted in a game-winning touchdown, would have made that catch one of the greatest of all time.  Greater than David Tyree's helmet catch.  I so wish Kearse could have reacted quicker and gotten in the end zone.  Or, that the Hawks had just given it to Marshawn at the one-yard line, or that Marshawn's final run would've gotten into the end zone.  Also, who knows how the Seahawks do in subsequent years if they win this game.  Maybe they win three in a row or three in four years.  We'll never know.

1. Seahawks lose Super Bowl XL - 2006
I still have not been more upset after a loss than the Seahawks losing Super Bowl XL.  I still hold much disdain for the Steelers, even though it was the referees who largely should be blamed.  I hate that our first Super Bowl was the most poorly officiated one.  I hate that the Super Bowl was played within driving distance of Pittsburgh and the crowd was almost all Steelers fans.  And the #1 seeded Hawks were playing a #6 seeded wild-card Steelers team which was not that good--they relied upon a lot of luck to win their playoff games.  They also had second-year QB Ben Roethlisberger, who had one of the worst statistical games by a starting quarterback in a Super Bowl.  Yet, the Steelers still won.  I remember breaking all of my Steelers toy helmets after the game (those little toy helmets you'd get from the quarter machines) because I was so upset.

Well, let's hope I don't have to add to this list anytime soon.  But sports, like the rest of life, have both good and bad moments.  You go through the bad so you can appreciate the good so much more.  So that leads me to want to do a reverse of this--best sports victories or moments compilation.  So look out for that soon!

Survivor 47 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 47 is almost here and the cast has been released, and as always, I will be making my predictions for the season.  I'll go through each cast member, give them a couple comparable players (who they either remind me of or may play like or have a similar result to), and talk about what I expect from them.  I'll also give them a predicted range of 6 spots, such as 12th-7th, 16th-11th, etc., like I always do.  Last season, I got 9/18 right, which was the same as I did the season before, so I hope to finally break the double-digit barrier and get 10 right for this season.  I'll organize them alphabetically by first name so I can find them easier later on.  I did watch each of their intro packages Survivor CBS posted, so I'll be going off that and their questionnaire.  As of the time of me doing this, there is no solid info online as to what their tribes are, so I'll be going without that for this season.  Wish me luck

Andy Rueda, 31, AI Research Assistant from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Austin Li Coon, Vince Sly
The Austin comparable is fairly obvious, but I unfortunately had to throw in Vince Sly as well.  Remember creepy Vince?  I don't think Andy will come off anywhere near that, but something about his appearance tells me people won't warm up to him as much as they will others.  I think it's the long hair.  Andy doesn't look very tall--my best guess is between 5 and a half feet and 5 foot 8.  And us short guys, well... we shouldn't have long hair.  It doesn't suit us.  I would know.  It's hard to pinpoint where I see him landing.  I think he's certainly smart enough, but I think he'll be missing that social aspect required to do very well.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th

Anika Dhar, 26, Marketing Manager from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: J.Maya, Venus Vafa
I hate to say it, but women with a Persian or Middle Eastern background don't tend to do well on Survivor.  Natalie Anderson is the lone exception.  I don't see the passion that Natalie has in Anika.  But I could be wrong.  But my gut feeling is Anika will be an early casualty, joining the many young women that have been pre-merge boots so far in the New Era of Survivor.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT! 14th.  I was basically spot on with Anika.  She had an alliance... but one (technically two) of them turned on her.

Aysha Welch, 32, IT Consultant from Houston, TX
Comparables: Lauren Harpe, Tiffany Ervin
Aysha may be the complete package.  She's very familiar with social games (She's on RHAP!) and she is the perfect age to win it all.  She's from the same city as Lauren, so I had to throw that comparison in.  Almost every new era season, there's a black woman who could win it all.  So far, only Maryanne has done it.  But will Aysha follow Maryanne?  Or will she go down the path of Shan, Drea, Lauren, Katurah, and Tiffany?  I think we'll have our first black female president, and we may have our 2nd black female winner of the new era.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
WRONG, 16th.  Wow, my second winner pick to not even make the merge.  This doesn't bode well for the rest of the season.

Caroline Vidmar, 27, Strategy Consultant from Chicago, IL
Comparables: Christy Smith, Moriah "Mo" Gaynor
She vaguely resembles Christy from the Amazon, remember her?  So I had to throw her in.  And she may be adventurous but I think the game may be too much for her like it was for Mo last season.  Well, it wasn't really, but Mo was not dominating the game in any way.  Nevertheless, Caroline could be anywhere from an early boot to someone's ride-or-die.  Hard to say.  I'll wing this one.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th

Gabe Ortis, 26, Radio Show Host from Baltimore, MD
Comparables: Kaleb Gebrewold, Randen Montalvo
Oh man is Gabe hard to pinpoint.  He's said he wants to be on the Survivor Mount Rushmore for the New Era, but perhaps he's reaching too high too fast.  I think people will be drawn to him, similarly to Kaleb, but they also may be put off slightly due to his standoffishness, like Randen.  I can't see too many people wanting to trust him and work with him.  I could be wrong.  But I also could see him sliding by, even if he's not in a majority, due to his lack of threat level.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th

Genevieve Mushaluk, 33, Corporate Lawyer from Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Comparables: Kim Spradlin, Lindsay Dolashewich
I really do see a lot of Kim in Genevieve.  The problem is, Kim played against a bunch of terrible Survivor players, while Genevieve certainly won't.  She screams "Alpha Female" to me, so she could potentially win, or be taken out for being a threat, possibly right before the merge.  Hard to say.  I'll say threat.  She did say she would not reveal her occupation, but either she won't be convincing or she'll pick an occupation that's still too intimidating, I think.  
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

Jon Lovett, 42, Podcast Host from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: David Wright, Rick Devens
I could be wrong, but Jon screams "final boss" to me this season.  Likable to the point where he might be prevented from reaching the Final 3.  Or, he could be a Mike White type that may just happy to be there.  He does seem like the type that will use Survivor as a learning experience rather than to actually win the game.  However, I have also realized someone may recognize him and Jon could be targeted for being semi-famous.  But I'll still give him the benefit of the doubt.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 18th.  I really thought Jon would do well since he was in so many of the promos...

Kishan Patel, 28, ER Doctor from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Naseer Mustalif, Yam-Yam Arrocho
At first, I was thinking Kishan has that lovable energy Yam-Yam has.  It's fairly infectious.  But then the more I thought about it, the more I'm worried about his chances.  He doesn't seem to have the outdoorsy-ness nor the killer instinct that Yam-Yam had.  I wouldn't bet on Kishan making the jury, but it wouldn't surprise me if he made it there, either.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 15th.  Right in the middle.  He was actually a more savvy player than I thought he'd be, he just made too big a mistake.

Kyle Ostwald, 31, Construction Worker from Cheboygan, MI
Comparables: Ian Rosenberger, Cody Assenmacher
Oh man does Kyle remind me of Ian from Palau.  They could be brothers.  I could see a similar game from Kyle, provided his tribe does well.  And I see a fun-loving spirit like Cody has.  We have not had a young white male win in the New Era, the only white male winner being Gabler.  Could it be Kyle?  
Predicted finish: 6th-1st

Rachel LaMont, 34, Graphic Designer from Southfield, MI
Comparables: Jess Chong, Kellee Kim
I can't see Rachel doing too well.  The introverted Asian, regardless of gender, never does very well, I'm afraid to say.  See also James Lim.  Anyway, I do think she'll be more game-savvy than Jess from 46, but I can't see her doing much better, placement-wise.  She could be an early challenge liability.  Even if she survives the pre-merge, she'll likely be targeted soon after the merge for being too intellectual.  It's a curse on the introverted.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th

Rome Cooney, 30, E-Sports Commentator from Phoenix, AZ
Comparables: JD Robinson, Tevin Davis
Rome wants to take over for Jeff when he retires.  Interesting.  We'll see if that ever comes up.  Maybe he'll sit out a challenge and Jeff will let him help commentate.  That would be cool.  Anyway, I like Rome.  He seems likable enough to get by.  I do worry he may annoy people out there and that might make people not want to work with him.  He's a bit high variance, just like his comparables were.  I just have this uneasy feeling about him--like he'll annoy the wrong person.  I'd be surprised if he was the first one gone from his tribe, but being 2nd or 3rd gone would not surprise me.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
CORRECT, 13th.  Well, it did come up that he wanted Jeff's job, and even got to sit at his seat at TC.  And he was the 3rd one gone (technically) from his tribe.

Sam Phalen, 24, Sports Reporter from Nashville, TN
Comparables: Sammi Lafedi, Cody Assenmacher
Bro, we got another one of those bro-types, dude.  Like, bro.  I could definitely see Sam as the type to use that type of language.  Yes, he is a sports reporter, but many reporters speak very differently when not on camera.  The thing is Sam won't ever not be on camera.  I like his chances to survive the pre-merge, but like Sammi and Cody, I don't think he'll be able to navigate the tough post-merge and get to the Final Tribal Council.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th

Sierra Wright, 27, Nurse from Phoenixville, PA
Comparables: Jefra Bland, Sierra Reed
I'll say this: Sierra (this season) looks like someone took Jefra from Cagayan and Sierra from Tocantins and merged them together.  So that made the comparables easy.  Anyway, I see this Sierra doing about as well as those two.  About a mid-merge boot.  We've had many young females be pre-merge boots, but I think tribes will target the older players first.  Sorry Sue, Sol, and (possibly) Jon.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

Solomon "Sol" Yi, 43, Medical Device Sales from Norwalk, CT
Comparables: Mike Gabler, Jonas Otsuji
Sol specializes in medical devices just like Gabler, hence that comparison.  And he's funny (and Asian) like Jonas, so there's that one as well.  I could see Sol getting by on his humor and personality, but I have this bad feeling a few of the older people will be targeted early.  I wish I had better news.  I'm certain I'll like Sol and be rooting for him, but I feel his fans will be disappointed.
Predicted finish: 16th-11th

Sue Smey, 59, Flight School Owner from Putnam Valley, NY
Comparables: Heather Aldret, Julie Alley
Another older blonde woman.  It's a tale as old as time.  But Sue is older than both of them.  And I unfortunately feel she won't do as well as they did.  Yes, she may be tough and able to physically handle the game, but socially I wouldn't bet on her doing very well.  Something about her plastic surgery may turn some people off.  They might think that makes her, well... fake.  I hate to say it.  But this grandma won't be making the finale.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th

Teeny Chirichillo, 24, Freelance Writer from Manahawkin, NJ
Comparables: Evie Jagoda, Elaine Stott
First off, interesting name.  Secondly, I'm using comparables Teeny used, so there's that (I only took Elaine from Teeny's questionnaire).  I'm not sure Teeny's pronouns, so that's why I'm using Teeny's name for everything.  Anyway, I think Teeny will do enough pre-merge to form bonds or a majority alliance, but I feel like Teeny will be on the outs come shortly after the merge, just like Evie was.  Writers tend to be more introspective and reserved, so I think there will be someone that things Teeny is up to more than Teeny actually is.  
Predicted finish: 12th-7th

Terran "TK" Foster, 31, Athlete Marketing Manager from Upper Marlboro, MD
Comparables: Q Burdette, Danny McCray
I don't think TK will be as out there as Q, but him using "TK" as his name is an early indication he may be closer to Q than Danny.  All three have a football background, so I know TK is going to play this competitively.  And like Q and Danny, I think TK will be a mid-merge boot.  If I had to put money on someone this season being a juror, I'd put money on TK.
Predicted Finish: 11th-6th
WRONG, 17th.  Well it's a good thing I didn't put money on TK being a juror!  This season has not gotten off to a great start for my predictions... oy.

Tiyana Hallums, 27, Flight Attendant from Aiea, HI
Comparables: Dee Valladares, Noura Salman
Tiyana certainly is someone I considered as a winner pick.  She reminds me so much of Dee--like the Hawaiian version of her.  I can't see her having the strategic dominance of Dee.  I did mention Noura, because I think she'll be a bit kooky and out there like her.  So I could potentially see a losing finalist game from Tiyana.  She works in the hospitality industry, so she knows how to appease all kinds of people.  I like her chances to get far, at least.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 12th.  Well, she didn't have the strategic dominance of Dee, that's for sure.  I overestimated her just because she looks like Dee.


So with that, I will make a boot order that would fit all of those placements:

18th: Rachel
17th: Sue
16th: Anika
15th: Sol
14th: Kishan
13th: Rome
12th: Caroline
11th: Sierra
10th: Genevieve
9th: Teeny
8th: Sam
7th: TK
6th: Gabe
5th: Andy
4th: Jon
3rd: Tiyana
2nd: Kyle
1st: Aysha


There you have it, my winner pick for Survivor 47 is Aysha!  I'm hoping my winner pick is right two times in a row.  My winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 16th, and 1st.  That's an average placement of 6th.  Not bad.  My next winner pick was Kyle, who I think people will really like and not find too threatening.

Actual winners I have placed 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), 18th (Gabler), 3rd (Yam-Yam), 9th (Dee), and 1st (Kenzie).  So a bit all over the place, but mostly good.  Four out of six times correctly predicting finalists is pretty good.

I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range.  Any updates will be in BOLD.  Hoping to improve and finally hit double digits!
  

The future of the Mariners

In April, I discussed how I could have been more excited for the Mariners' upcoming season, their slow-ish start, and who's to blame for the lack of success.  How little I knew then.  Sure, this team went on a hot streak from May into June to get a 10-game lead in the division, but then we all know what happened.  They currently sit five games out, a difference of 15 games over roughly two months.  And the biggest culprit to the Mariners' lack of success is well documented--the hitting or lack thereof.  They currently have an MLB-low .215 team batting average for the year and lead the majors in strikeouts.  The team's hitting approach is easily the worst in the majors.  There is no reason this team should not be hitting at least 25th in the majors and not be #1 in strikeouts with this roster.  

This team has been moving backward for the last three seasons.  They have gone from the playoffs in 2022 to barely missing them in 2023 to likely missing them by a bit more here in 2024.  That is the very definition of trending downward.  We've seen coaches or managers canned after one off year many times.  Sure, Servais has built a reputation and system here, but whatever he's done is clearly not working.  They were supposed to take steps forward after 2022, but instead have only gone backward.  Good coaching takes teams heading in the right direction, not steering them the other way. 

But as I've said, it's not entirely Servais's or the coaching staff's fault.  I guarantee if you could read his mind, you'd hear his grumblings with the lack of talent on the hitting side of things.  Too often he's had to put less than ideal players hitting third or cleanup.  Too often he hasn't had a capable guy to be the bridge from the starter to Munoz. 

So should he go?  I think he has to.  We see coaches and managers let go all the time when it's not entirely their fault.  Or even mostly.  But the Mariners would be smart to emulate what the Seahawks did and bring in an entirely new coaching staff.  Maybe try holding onto pitching coach Pete Woodworth, if possible.  

My biggest gripe with Servais is his lack of emotion.  I grew up with fiery Lou Piniella, so I almost expect it.  Servais, even in the worst of losses, is too robotic and lacks energy.  He does on occasion go out and fight for his players against the umpires, but it's not often enough.  Sure, he's good at making sure this team doesn't get too high or too low, but I really think he lacks in the motivation department.  

I fully expect the Mariners to finish around .500, missing the playoffs by a decent amount of games, and questions begin swirling about the team's future.  I'm going to one game this year (as I've already bought the tickets), but that's it.  I've paid less attention to them this year than any other year in my entire adult life.   How much I invest in them next season depends on how much they change going into 2025.  Will they have a new manager?  Will they finally invest in some quality bats?  Will they possibly even make a change at president or GM?  The more that changes for the better, the more I'll invest.  However, if they merely try to "stay the course", I assure you, they won't be getting much from me next season at all.  Of course, if they make so many changes that it becomes a rebuild, that will not do it for me.  All this disappointment has taken a toll on me, and I'm sick of it.     

Update: Servais was fired on Aug. 22, and the Mariners have done okay since his firing.  Maybe slightly better.  Do I agree with it?  Yes.  He and Bud Black were the only two managers in MLB to have managed for as long as they had without any divisional playoff wins or division titles.  Yes, Bud Black needs to go as well.  I like Dan Wilson, I think he's more relatable for the players.  Servais seemed to have this "my door's always open but not" type energy.  Like, he would come off as affable but you'd realize he wasn't as much.  

The team also announced Jerry Dipoto would be retained, and I'm honestly okay with that.  I know a lot of Mariners fans aren't.  But here's what Jerry has done: Built one of the best pitching rotations in baseball.  Built a farm system that has been ranked near the top often in the last 5 years.  And he's kept us at least as a competitive team, avoiding terrible seasons.  Jack Zduriencik and Bill Bavasi couldn't say that.  Dipoto is at least better than them, and I'd rather not let him go and risk getting another Zduriencik or Bavasi.  

It's hard to say how much of my time and money I'll invest into the Mariners in 2025.  Likely similar to 2024.  I may go to one game.  I'm not paying for cable or Fubo TV to watch them.  I likely won't buy any merchandise.  I'd love to be more invested, but I've got to see some actual championship-type moves made first.

Condensed 2024 NFL Predictions!

 I will, at the very least, keep up my tradition of predicting the NFL season, even though I'm always wrong about many things.  But hey, it's fun.  I'm going to get straight to it, the predicted records, the playoff predictions, and then, a short bit about the Seahawks, my favorite team.  A heads up, I'm going to try to predict a few surprises, so some of these records may surprise you.  After all, we always see several surprisingly good and bad teams each season.

* = Wild Card

AFC EAST
1. Miami Dolphins 11-6
2. Buffalo Bills 10-7*
3. New England Patriots 8-9
4. New York Jets 6-11
Comment: The Dolphins win a mediocre at best division as the Bills have a few setbacks.  The Patriots and Drake Maye surprise some people.  Aaron Rodgers either struggles or gets hurt and the Jets are, well, the Jets.

AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati Bengals 12-5
2. Baltimore Ravens 11-6*
3. Cleveland Browns 8-9
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-10
Comment: The Bengals are back on top and Burrow plays all season.  The Ravens regress slightly, most notably on defense after losing Mike Macdonald.  The Browns are okay, but Watson proves to not stay healthy or consistent.  The Steelers regress without a solid QB as both Wilson and Fields struggle against the tough defenses of the AFC North.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts 11-6
2. Houston Texans 10-7*
3. Tennessee Titans 9-8
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-11
Comment: Yep, you heard it here.  The Colts surge with a healthy Anthony Richardson.  The Texans are still decent, but slightly lose their grasp on the division.  The Titans surprise people with their underrated D and Will Levis competing his butt off.  The Jaguars again struggle to find consistency.

AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs 10-7
2. Los Angeles Chargers 9-8
3. Denver Broncos 7-10
4. Las Vegas Raiders 4-13
Comment: The Chiefs win the worst division in the AFC despite a bit of a Super Bowl hangover.  The Chargers show flashes under new coach Jim Harbaugh, but look like they'll take a year to make a big stride.  The Broncos are competitive, and Bo Nix establishes himself as the starter.  The Raiders struggle mightily, even under Minshew.

NFC EAST
1. Dallas Cowboys 10-7
2. Philadelphia Eagles 8-9
3. Washington Commanders 8-9
4. New York Giants 7-10
Comment: In a very mediocre division, Dallas remains on top.  The Eagles struggle and continue their slide from last season.  The Commanders show some flashes but it's not enough.  The Giants aren't terrible, but are missing a star QB.

NFC NORTH
1. Detroit Lions 12-5
2. Chicago Bears 9-8*
3. Green Bay Packers 7-10
4. Minnesota Vikings 5-12
Comment: The Lions win the division two years in a row thanks to the best roster in the division.  The Bears surprise people and Caleb Williams looks like the real deal.  Jordan Love shows a bit that last year was a bit of an abberration.  The Vikings struggle without JJ McCarthy and having to go with Darnold.

NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons 10-7
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-10
3. New Orleans Saints 6-11
4. Carolina Panthers 6-11
Comment: The Falcons win a very winnable division thanks to the addition of Cousins.  The Bucs struggle in year 2 under Mayfield.  The Saints and Panthers have different stories: The Saints suffer massive disappointment while the Panthers remain optimistic under new head coach Dave Canales.

NFC WEST
1. San Francisco 49ers 13-4
2. Seattle Seahawks 10-7*
3. Los Angeles Rams 10-7*
4. Arizona Cardinals 6-11
Comment: The 49ers remain very tough and win a formidable division.  My Seahawks surprise people and win 10 games, largely thanks to an improved defense.  The Rams also win ten games, but more on the back of their offense.  The Cardinals aren't awful, but struggle to beat any somewhat decent teams.

Before I get to the playoffs, here are the coaches in this scenario I'd expect to get fired:
Robert Saleh, Jets
Doug Pederson, Jaguars
Antonio Pierce, Raiders
Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers
Dennis Allen, Saints

With Mike Tomlin as an outside possibility (possibly steps down instead of getting fired).  

Now onto the NFL Playoffs!  Who is my prediction for Super Bowl LIX?

AFC WILD CARD
(7) Texans at (2) Dolphins: Dolphins win
(6) Bills at (3) Colts: Bills win
(5) Ravens at (4) Chiefs: Chiefs win

NFC WILD CARD
(7) Bears at (2) Lions: Lions win
(6) Rams at (3) Cowboys: Rams win
(5) Seahawks at (4) Falcons: Seahawks win

AFC DIVISIONAL
(6) Bills at (1) Bengals: Bengals win
(4) Chiefs at (2) Dolphins: Chiefs win

NFC DIVISIONAL
(6) Rams at (1) 49ers: 49ers win
(5) Seahawks at (2) Lions: Lions win

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC: Chiefs at Bengals: Bengals
NFC: Lions at 49ers: 49ers

SUPER BOWL LIX
Bengals vs 49ers: 49ers win, 23-17

Yup, I hate to admit it, but the 49ers finally win another Super Bowl.  Turns out, third time is the charm for Kyle Shanahan, at least as a head coach.  

And now, my Seahawks.  I don't want to predict each game, because I'll be wrong about some wins and I'll be wrong about some losses.  I'll just go over three aspects of the team:

Offense: Slow start, but shows more explosiveness than last season.  There's not a ton of consistency with the offense.  Some games they may score 30+, others less than 20.  Geno has a bit of a bounce back season.  The lack of quality tight end depth hurts.  The run game could still be improved and show more consistency, as K9 breaks a few home run type runs but struggles to gain consistent yardage.

Defense: The defense is improved without the secondary of Diggs and Adams dragging them down.  The loss of Wagner's leadership is felt, but a few young players emerge, such as Derick Hall and of course, Byron Murphy.  The D-Line proves to be a Top 10 D-Line in the NFL.  The linebackers have their ups and downs, while the secondary is mostly decent.  

Coaching: I expect the growing pains that usually come with a rookie head coach/new coaching staff, but I do expect a new energy in this team.  I think they'll be in the middle of the league in terms of penalties (perhaps still bottom half) but I expect the Time of Possession to improve, largely due to the defense getting off the field, rather than the offense sustaining drives.  All in all, I expect a solid first season with a bright future in front of us.

Well, that does it for my 2024 NFL Predictions.  I'll take the Hawks having a good first year under Mike Macdonald, even if it means a 49ers Super Bowl... I guess.  But it should be a fun season.  Go Hawks!