SURVIVOR 48 FOUR WORD GAME

Survivor 48 has had its premiere, and what an interesting cast we have so far.  Like past seasons, I'm going to give each player remaining in the game (and the booted player) four words to describe the current state of their game, what they need to do, what I noticed, and anything that might stand out about them to me.  I'll then elaborate a tiny bit on that, especially early on considering I have a lot of players to get through.  

As always, I'll be starting with my lowest-ranked player, then going sequentially to my highest ranked player.  This first week is based off of my pre-season rankings from my other Survivor 48 post.  Let's go!

EPISODE 1 FOUR WORD GAME

Thomas: Not an early boot
Thomas bonding with the men and Bianca proves to me he's likely making the merge.  In fact, one could argue he's one of the most insulated players in the game.  I think I was very wrong on Thomas.  

Shauhin: Male alliance should carry
The ironically named "California Girls" alliance should carry Shauhin for a while.  It's good that Shauhin and Joe are cool with that.  

Bianca: Alliance with men crucial
It may not be the best spot, but being the #4 in the California Girls alliance is better than nothing (although Bianca is from New Jersey).  Trying to turn on them would be dumb.  The men have the control on that tribe.

Cedrek: Must turn if necessary
Cedrek formed an alliance with Sai, and a semi-alliance with Justin and Kevin.  If Justin and Kevin propose it, Cedrek must be willing to turn on her or he'll go down with her.  

Sai: Record setting aggressive machine
Sai is a record-setter as she broke the record for confessionals in one episode with 21!  That largely had to do with her idol find, but wow.  She's also playing very aggressively on a tribe that's likely going to tribal again.  That's extremely risky.  She would be wise to play her idol at the next tribal.  

Mitch: Will be heartbreaking boot
I definitely have a different perception of Mitch now than I did preseason.  Had I actually watched his video, I would've seen how bad his stutter is.  So it'll be interesting to see how other players treat him.  He doesn't seem to be in the best spot (a four-person alliance formed on his tribe without him in it), so it doesn't look great.

Joe: Sacrifices game for Eva?
That comment that he'd rather go home than turn on her spoke volumes, and I believe him.  Joe seems like such a stand-up dude.  He and Eva were definitely framed in a positive light.  Plus, his physical nature is helping his tribe beast challenges so far.  Also, I was very wrong about purple being the disaster tribe.  It's green.

Kamilla: Oddball fitting in okay
Kamilla formed a bond and a four-person alliance with Kyle, David, and Chrissy.  That was good to see for her.  I think others might find her kooky, so while she's fitting in now, don't count on it all season.

Eva: Picked the right person
To confide in.  I think we'll be looking back at that moment towards the end of this season as a huge point in the game.  I think Eva and Joe both make it far.  I don't see people gunning for Eva as a threat, and Joe will be around to protect her.

David: Rubbing people wrong way
He just comes off as one of those macho guys that people don't really get along with unless they too are a macho guy.  The questions he asked were weird, but fortunately for him, he's in an alliance.

Mary: Bottom on bad tribe
The worst spot to be in.  She voted incorrectly at the first tribal, and their tribe looks like they'll likely lose multiple challenges.  Mary's got a lot of work to do to just make the merge.  We could be looking at an Ua 2.0 here, when Shan and Ricard were the only two to make the merge from their tribe (in 41).  

Charity: On outs and quiet
Not great.  She wasn't included in the alliance, some things were said about her to make us think she's going soon, and we didn't get a ton of content from her, anyway.  It's not looking great for Charity.

Justin: Let pizza analogies fly!
I may reference pizza in every one of his Four Word games, just FYI.  Love the pizza analogies and love the pizza shirt.  Unfortunately for Justin, he's on a bad tribe, so hopefully they recover.  Fortunately, though, he and Kevin seem to be in the prime position to decide who goes.

Star: Clearly first to go
On Lagi, anyway.  There's the California Girls (aka the men), and Thomas has a connection to Bianca while Joe has a connection to Eva.  That leaves Star on the outs.  Sucks for her.  

Chrissy: Already see she's lasting
I can already tell from one episode that Chrissy is going to last a while.  Orange likely won't go to too many pre-merge tribals, and if they do, Charity and Mitch are ahead of her in the pecking order.  She could be yet another older lady that loses at the end.

Kyle: Good dude, deserves better
That was awesome of Kyle to help Kevin finish since he was essentially DQ'ed.  Which, I gotta say, why not use less breakable glass?  I hate when the challenge fails the contestant, which is what happened.  I would've argued it so much.  I wish nothing but the best for Kyle.  

Kevin: Shaky situation, not doomed
It's a shaky situation since he's on such a bad tribe it seems, but he's in a good spot, and let's not forget, we've seen multiple winners emerge from bad tribes.  Ricard almost did it, Yam-Yam did it, and Kenzie did it.  Also, weird how they cut out medical looking at his shoulder, since it was in the promo for the season aired at the end of 47.  

And to our departed player...

Stephanie: Drew the short straw
Talk about awful luck.  Put on a terrible tribe.  Each of the other tribes has a really buff dude.  Kevin is fairly buff, but not that buff.  Anyway, Steph just got really unlucky, and couldn't get her shot in the dark to hit.  At least Mary stuck by her.

All right, first rankings of the season (after seeing at least one episode).  The number in parentheses is how much they differ from my previous ranking of them, and in this case, that would be my pre-season ranking from my Survivor 48 Preview and Predictions post.  Here is how I rank the remaining 17:

17. Mary (-9)
16. Charity (-9)
15. Sai (-1)
14. Star (-10)

13. Cedrek (+2)
12. Mitch (+1)
11. Justin (-6)
10. Kamilla (+1)
9. Bianca (+7)
8. David (+1)
7. Shauhin (+10)
6. Thomas (+12)
5. Kyle (-3)
4. Joe (+8)
3. Chrissy (0)
2. Eva (+8)
1. Kevin (0)

Biggest rise: Thomas (+12!) also Shauhin +10, Joe and Eva +8
Biggest fall: Star (-10), also Mary and Charity (-9)

Well, there's always going to be a ton of movement early, and this season is no exception.  I am sticking with my winner pick for now, but I bet we'll get some really good content from someone else in the near future that'll make me pick a new #1.  Crazy how the bottom 4 are women, but those are the four people most in danger of being voted out next episode.  

AFTER EPISODE 2 FOUR WORD GAME
Side note: This is going to be a quicker one (less detailed) because I'm not a fan of how one tribe is getting decimated... plus my winner pick just got voted out early... again.

Mary: Still doomed, I'm sorry
On the worst tribe, they're almost for sure going to lose again after voting out Kevin.

Charity: Like Dee's big toes?
What is Survivor's weird fetish with feet?  First Dee's big toes now Charity's weird foot?  Hard to say.  It's good to see she has a buddy in Mitch, but it's 2 against 4.

Sai: Female Rome this season
Chaotic, advantages, getting into arguments.  She's a female Rome.  That likely means she's not going very far. especially considering what tribe she's on.

Star: Had to include someone
On her beware advantage.  But no one seems that inclined to help her.  But she may have gained a little trust at least.

Cedrek: Low-key worst competitor
Cedrek sucks at challenges.  He's bringing them down.  Safe to say they do much better if they have Stephanie over him.  But at least he has the Kevin move (which he didn't orchestrate).

Mitch: Incredibly wholesome likable dude
That's what Mitch is.  He'll likely make the merge, but his likability will paint a target on his back.

Justin: Extremely risky move made
Turning on Kevin like that... sheesh.  Now he has to hope they have a tribe swap or merge before he gets voted out, because they're likely not winning anything.  

Kamilla: Brains behind her duo
Her and Kyle are quite the underrated duo, and Kamilla showed she's the brains.  

Bianca: Not much content early
She has the fewest confessionals through two episodes with a total of 2, one each episode.  Not great.

David: Play up goofball energy
Seriously.  If he does, people won't take him seriously and he may slip by in this game.  

Shauhin: Handled advantage situation well
Once Joe brought him in, I thought he handled it well, and he was wise to be suspicious of Thomas being sneaky.

Thomas: Evil side to him
Wanting Shauhin to lose the guide that would help Star find the idol.  Not sure if that's allowed.  But man, that shows Thomas is willing to do whatever it takes.  I like that. 

Kyle: Couldn't figure out puzzle?
He got the letters but needed Kamilla's help to solve the word puzzle?  And this dude is a lawyer?  It makes me think she's got much better chance to win than him.

Joe: Everyone goes to him
First Eva now Star.  Shows Joe as being approachable, trustworthy, and likable.  That's huge.

Chrissy: Not enough content yet
Like Bianca, Chrissy's getting not much.  She had the whole deep belly button thing, but it was among Kyle's wart/callous and David's four nipples.

Eva: Needs connection to another
She has a good bond with Joe, but who else?  She would be smart to warm up to Thomas, Bianca, or Shauhin and solidify their fivesome.

And to our departed player...

Kevin: Never run game early
Kevin thought that he was running the game early.  Never think that.  In fact, you can't even think that until like Final 6 or 5.  Even if you're the only muscle on your tribe, your tribemates will turn on you.  Shame.  

New power rankings!  Definitely going to be some shakeups.  Can't believe my #1 got booted episode 2.  Sigh.  Well, here they are:

16. Sai (-1)
15. Mary (+2)
14. Cedrek (-1)
13. Justin (-2)
12. Star (+2)
11. Charity (+5)
10. Mitch (+2)
9. Chrissy (-6)
8. Bianca (+1)
7. Kyle (-2)
6. David (+2)
5. Thomas (+1)
4. Eva (-2)
3. Kamilla (+7)
2. Joe (+2)
1. Shauhin (+6)

Biggest rise: Kamilla (+7), also Shauhin (+6) and Charity (+5)
Biggest fall: Chrissy (-6)

Clearly had to choose a new #1, and it's Shauhin!  I think he's the most insulated on his tribe.  Well it's either him or Joe, and I think Joe may be more of a threat.  Hard to say.  I just really liked how Shauhin handled Star's advantage situation, and I liked how Joe felt the need to include him.  Both males to have won in the New Era had big beards (Gabler and Yam-Yam), and Shauhin is no different.  Kamilla rises for me as well, I think she's a dark horse and I'm liking her more.  The entire Vula tribe is on the bottom for me, for obvious reasons.  They literally could not have done worse in this game, outside of one thing.  They've finished last in each tribe challenge, and Mary was the only one to lose on the journey.  The only thing any of them ever won was when Kevin beat Kyle to get supplies, and even then, they only one because Kyle accidentally broke his jug.  He likely wins if he doesn't.  And the only guy that's ever won anything for them?  They just voted him out.  

My Survivor 50 Cast

 Survivor 50 is scheduled to air around this time next year.  Crazy.  With that said, I thought I'd put together a cast that I would use for Survivor 50.  I'll take into account who production seems to like, and who doesn't want to play again (won't cast them).  Here are some ground rules I put together for myself:

• No more than 2 returning players for one season
• Only using casts from seasons 35-48.  34 was a returning players season, 33 and earlier have at least had a chance to return so far.  48 has not aired yet, but more on that later.
• Trying to cast 1 or more from each of the above seasons.  However, one season, 39, did not make the cut.  I think Survivor at this point is okay with not casting from EVERY season, especially considering what 39 is known for.
• Follow the diversity mandate, meaning half the cast has to be people of color (non-white).  
• No winners allowed.  I considered this a "Second Chance" type cast.  

With that said, I'm going to list the players, why I chose them, and who was close to making it but ultimately didn't.  And then at the end, I'll put together the tribes so that there aren't any players from the same original season on the same tribe.

Survivor 35 (Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers): Chrissy Hofbeck
Only Chrissy makes the cast from here.  She's still talked about with how well she did at challenges, and Survivor owes it to her to give her another chance after how they screwed her over with the surprise fire-making twist that allowed Ben to have another chance.  There wasn't really anyone else here I considered.  I'd like to see Devon Pinto again, but he said he'd only play again with his mom on a "Blood vs. Water" type season.  Ryan Ulrich loses out to a nerd from two seasons later.

Survivor 36 (Ghost Island): Dominic Abbate
Dominic is the only player to lose on a tie-breaking final vote.  How can he not be brought back?  The only other player I somewhat considered was Michael Yerger, who I liked but likely has been forgotten about at this point.  He could be a dark-horse candidate, but the problem is, there's already a ton of white males to choose from.

Survivor 37 (David vs. Goliath): Christian Hubicki and Angelina Keeley
Christian remains one of the game's biggest fan favorites.  Imagine him dissecting strategy with some other All-Stars.  Angelina comes back solely for the memes but also because Jeff loves her.  Let's hope for another Natalie/coat situation or another rice negotiation from Angelina.  I considered Gabby Pascuzzi and John Hennigan, but Christian and Angelina beat them out.

Survivor 38 (Edge of Extinction): Rick Devens
How could he not be brought back?  He was so close to a win, he's great TV, and he's clearly liked by production as he was a co-host of the On Fire podcast.  I also considered Victoria Baamonde, who was a last-minute cut because I needed to abide by the diversity mandate.

Survivor 39 (Island of the Idols): No one
As mentioned above, no one made it from this cast.  Like I said, I think production would be okay to completely ignore this season.  I considered Elaine, who was closest.  I really like Janet, but she was involved with the Dan Spilo incident, albeit not in a bad way, but I know production wants to steer very clear of it.  She's also a bit on the older side.

Survivor 41: Shantel "Shan" Smith
She has her own theme song.  I can see production incorporating that into their promos for 50.  How could they not?  She's made some comments that I don't think production really liked, but she's still talked about in Survivor circles.  I considered Ricard, but there are too many males that I'd want to see more than him.

Survivor 42: Omar Zaheer
I could be wrong, but I think they're more likely to cast strategic and social masterminds rather than physical players, which is why I chose Omar over his Taku tribemate, Jonathan.  I'd love to see Jonathan beast challenges again, but we know he's got zero shot to actually win the game against all-star strategists.  I also considered Mike and Lindsay, who fell short as well.

Survivor 43: Jesse Lopez and Karla Cruz Godoy
I so badly wanted both Jesse AND Cody, but I couldn't fit Cody.  Maybe production can.  But at least I have Jesse, who is my personal favorite strategist of the New Era.  I also included Karla, who I think could learn and improve upon her first game, which started very strong but fizzled out toward the end.  Both also fulfill the diversity mandate.  

Survivor 44: Carolyn Wiger and Lauren Harpe
This is the only time I cast two of the same gender from the same season.  Carolyn is an obvious choice.  Production might not like her ties to Carson or her appearance on The Traitors (on a rival network), but she is on the New Era Mount Rushmore of characters.  And Lauren might seem like a weird pick, which it maybe is, but she was a dark horse on her season who other players said would likely win if she gets to the end (at least against anyone except Yam-Yam).  I also considered Carson, but production doesn't love him anymore.  Plus, I don't need more white males.

Survivor 45: Kaleb Gebrewold and Kellie Nalbandian
Weird how my two picks from this season were the first two jury members.  Kaleb was a fan favorite, had a legendary shot in the dark play, and likely fares better when there are other threats he's playing with.  Kellie might also seem like an odd pick, but she had a pretty legendary blindside, and the Survivor community and production seem to love her.  She's got a good mind for the game, which is what led to her ouster.  She could definitely showcase her strategic chops on a second try.

Survivor 46: Q Burdette
I wanted to include a second, but there was no room.  Q had to make it, being the legendary character he is.  It'd be a big mistake not to bring him back.  I considered Charlie, but as I've said, there were too many white males ahead of him.  I also considered Venus, Hunter, and Tiffany.

Survivor 47: Andy Rueda and Genevieve Mushaluk
I'm pretty sure Jeff hinted to already asking Andy to come back for 50.  So he has to make it.  Gen, meanwhile, was such a great female powerhouse and I think could shine on an all-star cast.   Sure, she didn't get the greatest edit in the world early on, but a lot of great female players didn't.  

Survivor 48: One male, one female
In order to make my complete cast, one man and one woman from this season makes it onto 50.  I'm not sure who.  I'm not going to even fathom a guess at this point.  But in order to abide by the diversity mandate, one has to be a person of color.  I'll update here once 48 is at least close to over.  If I don't like two people enough to be on 50, I'll go back and add someone from a prior season.  

Survivor 49: No one
49 will air in the fall of 2025, and I feel like that's not enough time for production to gauge the reaction of the cast there.  Plus, they probably want to avoid back-to-back seasons, although they've done that several times before when the seasons were 39 days.  But the cast of 50 is very likely going to be announced before we see 49 (or at least, finish 49).  So the players from 49 will have to hope for a returning players season after 50 that they can get a second chance on.

So that makes 18 players.  I know a lot of people think they might up the amount of players to 20 for Season 50, but they seem so infatuated with the three tribe format.  I don't see it changing, even for 50.  Here is my 18-player, 3-tribe cast, keeping duplicates from the same season on different tribes and trying to balance them out for challenge strength:

RED TRIBE
Dominic Abbate, 36
Jesse Lopez, 43
Male player, 48
Angelina Keely, 37
Shan Smith, 41
Kellie Nalbandian, 45

BLUE TRIBE
Rick Devens, 38
Omar Zaheer, 42
Kaleb Gebrewold, 45
Karla Cruz Godoy, 43
Carolyn Wiger, 44
Genevieve Mushaluk, 47

GREEN TRIBE
Christian Hubicki, 37
Q Burdette, 46
Andy Rueda, 47
Chrissy Hofbeck, 35
Lauren Harpe, 44
Female player, 48

Oh man, what a cast!  I'll be interested to see how this compares to the actual cast of 50.  And again, once 48 is over or close to over, I will put in my two picks from that season here.  

I made a Brant Steele simulation of this season, choosing Cedrek and Charity (randomly) from 48 to add to the cast for the 48 spots.  Here it is to simulate. https://brantsteele.com/survivor/32/r.php?c=nodG8zB2
Again, once I update the 48 picks, I'll change them there as well.

Survivor 48 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 48 is a bit less than a month away, and with the official cast release, it's time for my cast review and predictions.  Like I've done in the New Era so far, I will give each player two comparables of who they remind me of, and then give them a placement I think they'll fall into with a range of 6 spots, such as 12th to 7th, 18th to 12th, etc.  Last season I only got 6/18 after routinely getting at least 8 or 9 right.  So I have to return to form this season.  I'll organize them alphabetically by first name so I can find them easier later on.  I'll be updating these as they get voted out to see if I'm right or wrong; those updates will be in BOLD.  Unlike last season, I'm not really going to watch videos of them ahead of time.  Just gonna go off of Entertainment Weekly's article about it done by Dalton Ross, which you can see here.  Also, I will color code these by tribe.  There is CIVA, LAGI, and VULA.  And lastly, I'll put together a boot order given my placements for them at the end of all this.  Without further ado, here's the cast:

Bianca Roses, 33, PR Consultant from Arlington, VA
Comparables: Moriah Gaynor, Sarah Wade
Bianca is one of the most high-variance players this season.  She could be an early boot or make it to the finale, or anywhere in-between.  Then I look at her tribe.  Oh yeah, that's my pick for the disaster tribe.  Therefore, I think I have to say Bianca is an early boot.  Possibly a mergatory or earlier boot, just like Moriah and Sarah were.  Sometimes tribe placement is just awful luck, and I think that'll be the case for Bianca.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th

Cedrek McFadden, 45, Surgeon from Greenville, SC
Comparables: Rocksroy Bailey, Josh Wilder
I chose Rocksroy because of the glasses and Josh because of them both being surgeons.  Neither Josh nor Rocksroy made it terribly far, so I'm leaning towards the same with Cedrek.  He seems to check most boxes, but I just have this feeling he'll either not be in the majority alliance or he'll be blindsided.  If he tries to assume too much of a leadership role and becomes a bit too bossy, the best I could see for him is a Bruce-type run in 45.  But that's unlikely.  I don't think Green will be a disaster tribe, but I do think they'll be going to multiple pre-merge tribals, with Cedrek being one of the casualties.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th

Charity Nelms, 34, Flight Attendant from St. Petersburg, FL
Comparables: Hannah Rose, Sierra Wright
I like how Charity says she doesn't quit, which is more than I can say for her first comparable.  But I don't like how she says her hidden talent is singing.  We saw how Soda's singing in 46 got under some of her tribemates' skins.  I'm not high on any of the women on the Orange tribe, but if I had to pick one, I guess I'd pick Charity.  If she can form a tight duo or trio with any of the men on her tribe, I can see her getting far.  But I do see Charity becoming a casualty of a vote somewhere along the way.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th

Chrissy Sarnowki, 55, Fire Lieutenant, South Side of Chicago, IL
Comparables: Chrissy Hofbeck, Julie Wolfe
Chrissy Hofbeck is a comparable because of the name and Julie because she was also a female firefighter.  Anyway, Chrissy is this season's token older woman, so we know a losing finalist is certainly a possible spot for her.  She could also be an early boot.  But I think she'll be on a strong enough tribe and make a connection.  Someone: Kevin, Mitch, Kamilla, Charity, will want her as their #2.  She's making it fairly far, but not winning.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd

David Kinner, 39, Stunt Performer from Buena Park, CA
Comparables: Jonathan Young, Nick Maiorano
David is definitely a physical tank like Jonathan, but maybe not as much of a tank.  It should be enough to carry him to the merge, unless he's bad socially, which I can't rule out for him.  But here's the thing: If I had to bet on one player NOT winning this game.... I think I'd say David.  Either him or Thomas (see below).  Which is odd, because David would be one of the ones I'm most sure makes the merge.  He will have a ginormous bullseye on his back post-merge.  Even if the group consensus is that David isn't a threat, he'll then not be looked at positively enough, even if he gets to the Final Tribal Council.
Predicted Finish: 10th-5th

Eva Erickson, 24, PhD Candidate from Providence, RI
Comparables: Ashley Nolan, Noelle Lambert
Eva's a spunky former hockey player who is open about her autism.  It'll likely be a reason to root for her, like Noelle's disability was.  Physically, she reminds me of Ashley Nolan, and I believe both Ashley and Noelle were mid-jury boots.  I think Eva will be, too.  She's only 24, so she may get taken advantage of at some point.  I'd be mildly surprised to see her as a pre-merge boot, but I wouldn't rule it out.  I mean, she's on my predicted disaster tribe.  Possibly a casualty around the mergatory, as well.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th

Joe Hunter, 45, Fire Captain from West Sacramento, CA
Comparables: Danny Massa, Mike Turner
Sacramento, CA represent!  Sorry, my GF's from there.  Anyway, Joe is yet another firefighter in the New Era, hence the comparables.  I expect Joe to be kept around for his strength pre-merge, but then once the merge hits, the target gets put on his back, and I can't see Joe being one to shed it.  I also can't see him going on a crazy immunity/idol run.  He may be a fan favorite (possibly Facebook's favorite), but winning this game, Joe likely is not.  As I state perhaps a few times, I think Purple will be a disaster tribe yet again, so Joe has a 50/50 shot at being one of the pre-merge boots, roughly.  
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

Justin Pioppi, 29, Pizzeria Manager from Winthrop, MA
Comparables: Cody Assenmacher, Kyle Ostwald
Justin will likely be at least somewhat of a fan favorite.  But will he be a favorite amongst the castaways?  Maybe not as much.  He's not only worked but managed in the service industry so he knows how to handle tense situations.  I'm sure he's had to calm down an angry customer or two.  I'd be surprised if he was an early boot.  In fact, I think Justin will blend into the background well enough to sneak on by to near the end.  But will he get there?  We'll just have to wait and see.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd

Kamilla Karthigesu, 31, Software Engineer from Foster City, CA
Comparables: Jem Hussain-Adams, Swati Goel
I hate to say it, but since Natalie Anderson, women of South Asian descent do not typically do well on Survivor.  I don't see it changing with Kamilla.  She may surprise me and get fairly far due to tribe strength and/or a strong alliance, but I'd be surprised to see her in the finale.  She seems funny, but also easily irritated.  Almost like a Venus from 46.  
Predicted finish: 12th-7th

Kevin Leung, 34, Finance Manager from Livermore, CA
Comparables: Austin Li Coon, Owen Knight
Yet another Asian male oozing with charisma.  I gotta say, I have a good feeling about this one.  For one, he was the most memorable castaway from the 48 promo that aired at the end of 47.  He seems like a guy no one hates.  Like the kind of guy who hears you're going on vacation and offers to water your plants and pick up your mail for you.  That's why Kevin is in huge consideration to be my winner pick for 48.  Something seriously must go wrong if Kevin is an early boot.  And he seems to me like a player a lot of others will gravitate towards.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
WRONG, 17th.  My goodness how wrong I was.  

Kyle Fraser, 31, Attorney from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Rome Cooney, Nick Brown
Fortunately for Kyle, the similarities to Rome are just physical.  But he personality-wise reminds me more of Nick Brown, another African-American male in the field of law.  Kyle seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and as an attorney, he should be willing to be ruthless if need be.  However, when it comes down to it, can I see him winning a jury vote?  I can't say I can.  He seems too bland and not charming enough.  Possible losing finalist?  
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd

Mary Zheng, 31, Substance Abuse Counselor from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Lucy Huang, Carolyn Wiger
I chose Carolyn since they are in the same profession, if that wasn't obvious.  It's hard to pinpoint Mary.  I see her as another high-variance player.  It really depends on if she's on the outs early or if she joins a majority alliance.  I think she joins a majority alliance.  I could see her joining a group with Kevin, Stephanie, and/or Sai.  Really anyone on her tribe.  I think she becomes a mid-merge boot if I had to guess.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th

Mitch Guerra, 34, PE Coach from Waco, TX
Comparables: Sean Edwards, Sol Yi
Fortunately for Mitch, I don't see him essentially quitting like Sean did.  That wouldn't be a good message for the students in his PE Class.  Although Sean is a principal... Anyway, I see him being on the outs early, like Sol.  Fortunately for Sol, he was able to navigate to the merge but not much further.  I'm going to say Mitch might not even make the merge.  Orange is usually a pretty strong tribe, but I could see Mitch being on the outs or being unlucky.  He seems like the kind of guy that has a smile on his face even when backstabbed and blindsided.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th

Saiounia "Sai" Hughley, 30, Marketing Professional from Simi Valley, CA
Comparables: Soda Thompson, Sabiyah Broderick
Yet another "S" African-American female, and I think Sai will have around the same placements as Soda or Sabiyah.  Somewhere between late pre-merge to early merge.  She just seems like she'll come off in a similar way.  I can't see her pulling a Maryanne like she wants to.  
Predicted finish: 14th-9th

Shauhin Davari, 38, Debate Professor from Costa Mesa, CA
Comparables: Randen Montalvo, Ronnie Bardah
I'm going out on a huge limb here, preparing to be wrong.  But I think Shauhin will flame out early.  I don't know if it's the overconfidence or the beard or perhaps being on the disaster tribe (or all of the above), but I think Shauhin's not long for the game like his comparables weren't.  Again, I could be so incredibly wrong, but my gut is saying that his tribe makes the merge with at most 3 people.  Both Tika and Yanu were purple tribes who made the merge with only 3.  But they each contained the winner of the season.  But that is not Shauhin.  He's more Bhanu than Yam-Yam.  *Quick note, I wanted to add this was TheMeranianReview's winner pick (Check him out on YouTube), so one of us is likely going to be very wrong.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th

Star Toomey, 28, Sales Expert from Augusta, GA
Comparables: Tiffany Ervin, Katurah Topps
Star is a kooky one, I'll give her that.  She's on my disaster tribe pick, so the question is, does she survive it.  And I'm gonna say yes.  Black females tend to survive them.  Shan and Tiffany both survived them.  I think Star will.  And the good news is those that survive disaster tribes tend to make it far.  How far?  Time will tell.  What I didn't particularly like was that Star said she's an introvert and really shy.  That doesn't bode well for a game as social as Survivor.  But I think that'll help her fly under the radar.  Just a hunch.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd

Stephanie Berger, 38, Tech Product Lead from Brooklyn, NY
Comparables: Molly Byman, Lindsay Dolashewich
I wonder if Stephanie will lie about her age to try to fit in better.  She certainly looks like she could pass for younger, unlike a particular 59-year-old last season.  Anyway, Stephanie looks affable and has been in both business and teaching professions, so I think she'll be able to find a majority to fit in, perhaps with Mary, Kevin, and Sai.  However, I lose confidence in her with the merge.  She doesn't seem ruthless enough.  But she is saying a lot of the right things.  
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
WRONG, 18th.  It didn't help she was put on one of the worst tribes ever.

Thomas Krottinger, 34, Music Executive from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: Jon Lovett, Mike White
Ah, the successful white male who has no shot of winning.  Well, he should be a good narrator at least, for as long as he lasts.  So the question is: Is he more Jon Lovett or Mike White?  When I look at the tribes and see he's on my pick for the disaster tribe, it's obvious that Thomas is more likely to be Jon Lovett 2.0.  I could see him as a losing finalist a 'la Mike White if he's able to survive the pre-merge.  But that's a big "if" in the New Era.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th

All right, now a boot order, based on where I predicted them to finish:

18th: Thomas
17th: Shauhin
16th: Bianca
15th: Cedrek
14th: Sai
13th: Mitch
12th: Joe
11th: Kamilla
10th: Eva
9th: David
8th: Mary
7th: Charity
6th: Stephanie
5th: Justin
4th: Star
3rd: Chrissy
2nd: Kyle
1st: Kevin

My winner pick for Survivor 48 is Kevin!  Crazy how he is the first "Kevin" to ever play Survivor.  And I think it's a good sign.  I think perhaps Kevin and Kyle form a tight duo post-merge, bring in Chrissy, and run the table.  So far, my winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 16th, 1st, and 16th.  Let's hope I didn't pick another 16th placer.

I have placed actual winners of the season 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), 18th (Gabler), 3rd (Yam-Yam), 9th (Dee), 1st (Kenzie), and 18th (Rachel).  Either I rank them very high or I've ranked them last.  So, Thomas, you have a shot!

I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range.  Any updates will be in BOLD.  Hoping to improve upon the paltry 6/18 I got last season.  Let's hope for half right again, at least.

What the Seahawks should do at the QB Position

The Seahawks are coming to a crossroads regarding their starting quarterback, Geno Smith.  He's about to enter the final year of his contract, and the team is going to have to make a tough decision regarding his future.  They have to, first and foremost, look out for the team's best interests.  I'm going to go over the possible scenarios and rank them from 1 to 5, with 1 being the best and 5 being the worst.

1. The Seahawks don't extend Geno, but find a different option to learn under him and possibly take over for him.  
This is what I hope the Hawks will do.  First off, as the team's starting quarterback and leader, he shouldn't hold out if they decide not to extend him.  Even if he decides to hold out, the Hawks should try to find someone out there who can take over, worst-case scenario.  They have Sam Howell, but they need to bring someone else in to compete with Howell, at least for the backup spot.  It could be through the draft, or it could be a QB in free agency like Justin Fields or Daniel Jones.  Clearly, it would depend on who they hire to be the new offensive coordinator, and who that OC likes.

2. The Hawks pull a Pittsburgh Steelers and bring in two new QB's
Last offseason, the Steelers jettisoned both Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph and got Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.  Imagine if the Hawks did something like that.  Who knows who the two QBs would be, but it would certainly inspire hope that the Hawks are trying to find the next franchise QB. 

3. The Seahawks trade Geno Smith and have a QB competition with Howell and another QB brought in.
We have likely seen Geno's ceiling.  He's not getting any younger, and his TD/INT ratio took a huge hit in 2024.  Perhaps Macdonald and the new OC will want to start with someone new and build them up.  Sure, there's Sam Howell, but he would need some competition for the starting job after trading Geno.  It could be another trade like the Hawks did with Russell Wilson, where they got Drew Lock in return, among other players and picks.  Possible teams the Hawks could look to trade Geno to: Raiders, Browns, Titans, or Giants.

4. The Seahawks stay with the same two QB's, possibly extending Geno
This wouldn't inspire much confidence in wanting to improve at the QB position.  Could Geno win with a Super Bowl roster like the Hawks had in 2013-2014?  Sure.  But so could a lot of QBs.  Also, extending him ties up our cap space a lot to our QB position.  When you do that, unless you have a worldly talent like Mahomes, Allen, or Jackson, you're not winning too much.  I mostly want some kind of change.  But not any kind of change, as you'll see below.

5. The Hawks draft a QB at #18, regardless of who is currently on the roster
After Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward, there's a bit of a drop-off, so I'd be surprised if the #18 pick was a QB, especially if Geno is still here.  The next best options are Quinn Ewers and Jalen Milroe.  The Seahawks haven't taken a QB in the first round since 1993 with Rick Mirer.  I don't think that will change after the 2025 draft.  

It'll be interesting to see what they do this off-season.  I'll try to update here once it seems settled.  My dad, for one, is tired of Geno Smith as the Seahawks quarterback.  I can't say I blame him too much.  Sure, Geno can help the Hawks to winning seasons, but it does not appear he will be able to lead them to a Super Bowl.  It's time to start rebuilding at the position so the Hawks can hopefully, someday, have another star QB.

My Ten Personal Favorite Christmas Movies/TV Specials of All Time

With it being December and officially the Christmas season, I thought I'd go over my ten personal favorite Christmas movies or TV Specials.  There are a few things I have to say about this, which I'll outline in bullets for organizational purposes:

• These are not what I consider to be the ten best Christmas movies ever.  These are just ten movies (or Christmas specials) that I am very fond of and invoke nostalgia and childhood memories.  These are the ten movies I'd personally pick to watch every Christmas season if I could only choose ten.
• I am allowing sequels as separate entries as some sequels I like while others I don't.  
• These are ranked in order of how much I personally like them, not by how good of a movie I think they are.
• A few of these aren't your typical "theatrical release" style films, and more so TV specials or TV movies.  To me, they're close enough to be considered a movie or film.

With that said, here are my personal 10 favorite Christmas movies, ranked:

10. 'Twas the Night
This is a DCOM (Disney Channel Original Movie), but it's still a movie about Christmas.  Basically, an Uncle who's always getting into trouble (portrayed brilliantly by Bryan Cranston) has to watch over his niece and nephews on Christmas night while his brother and sister-in-law (their parents) have to work.  They accidentally knock out Santa and decide to deliver toys for him.  I won't get into it anymore, but it's a good family Christmas movie with a good message.  You have to suspend disbelief during this film for some parts, and the technology in it has NOT aged well.  But if you can get past those few things, it's really quite enjoyable.

9. Elf
Everyone else loves it, and yes, I have a certain fondness for it as well.  It came out in 2003, and I didn't see it until several years after it came out.  It might've been close to a decade later.  It has rewatchability and it's one of the few roles I enjoy Will Ferrell in, so there's that.  Perhaps I'll have this higher on my list as the years go on, but for now it's only #9 because I haven't seen it quite enough.

8. How the Grinch Stole Christmas (1966 TV special)
Don't get me wrong, I like the Jim Carrey version and the 2018 "The Grinch" film isn't bad, but this is the one that makes me feel all nostalgic.  That classic animation style is just timeless, and I absolutely love the "You're the Mean One, Mr. Grinch" song performed admirably by the legendary Thurl Ravenscroft.  This just never gets old.  

7. Frosty the Snowman
This is one I watched as a small child and have seen it sporadically throughout the years.  It always pulls at my heartstrings.  The Frosty the Snowman song alone is enough to make me emotional.  I also love the animation style and the voice acting is just classic.  I have this on DVD so I can watch it anytime I want during the Christmas season, even if I can't find it on TV/streaming.  

6. Home Alone 2: Lost in New York
This is the one Christmas movie sequel that worked.  The Santa Clause 2 wasn't bad, but it still fell a bit short.  But this one ups the stakes, changes the setting, and recreates the magic of the first.  In some ways, I almost enjoy it more than the first one, but the first one is such a classic.  It's too bad all the rest of the "Home Alones" were not even close to the first two.

5. Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer
Another timeless classic is Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer.  It's another TV special, but at 52 minutes it almost feels like a film.  My favorite thing about this is its songs.  From "Silver and Gold" to "We are Santa's Elves" to "The Most Wonderful Day of the Year", there's a song in here for everybody.  As a kid, I related to Rudolph, in being picked on for something you were born with and couldn't control (for me, it was my lack of height).  I will never stop loving this TV special.

4. Jingle All the Way
The crazy thing is, I almost want to rank this higher.  I've seen it at least a dozen times.  I love Arnie in it.  It's such a simple premise: A father trying to make something up to his son, goes on a hunt to find him a Christmas gift that's nearly impossible to find.  I love all the hijinks and to me, it's entertaining from start to finish.  Yes, a lot of it is a bit cringy and doesn't make logical sense, but you have to suspend belief when watching this.  

3. Home Alone
Of course, it had to be here if Home Alone 2 was here.  And the first just always slaps, as the kids say these days.  I kind of wanted the same thing to happen to me as a kid--be able to eat as much junk as I wanted, stay up as late as I wanted, watch whatever I wanted.  How Kevin learns about and later deals with the burglars is always my favorite part.  And it includes some great Christmas songs from "Walking Around the Christmas Tree" to "Run Run Rudolph".  

2. The Santa Clause
Similar to 'Twas the Night", Santa becomes incapacitated, and the family whose home where this happens has to take over his route.  This one, however, does it a bit better, with Tim Allen assuming the title of Santa Claus because of "The Santa Clause".  As a kid, this movie made me believe Santa Claus was spelled with an "E" at the end.  I've never been the biggest fan of the custody battle between Scott and his ex-wife for Charlie, but it does add another layer to the plot.  Nevertheless, I absolutely love this movie, and I have very fond memories of watching this on ABC with my family shortly after it came out.

1. A Christmas Story
It had to be, right?  And the weirdest thing is that I didn't see this until near adulthood.  I think I only watched it because I was told I resembled the kid (Ralphie) from the movie.  And boy, I'm glad I did.  It's the perfect Christmas movie.  Anyone who's ever wanted that super special Christmas gift can relate to Ralphie's quest for the Red Ryder BB gun.  I sure look forward to watching this each Christmas season.

Good and Bad Things About our New Apartment #2

Four and a half years ago, I did a post on Good and Bad Things About Our New Apartment, and we moved out of that apartment 5 months ago and I still have yet to go over the good and bad things about our current apartment.  I'll be comparing our current to our previous apartment a bit.  I'll start with the bad to get that out of the way.

Bad:
- Less storage space
It's unfortunate, but the way we looked at it, it forced us to get rid of a lot of crap that we didn't need.  I took 2 or 3 trips to Value Village with stuff to get rid of shortly after we moved.  I still have another trip to eventually make.  I'm waiting for Christmas so that I can go through the Christmas things and decide which of those things to get rid of.  But both our outdoor storage and bedroom closet are smaller than our last place.  But fortunately for me, I'm very good at making things fit.  

- Farther commute for myself
I have a part-time job that I work every so often, and our move made my commute a bit further.  I'm ok with it, though, since I don't work 5 times a week there like my girlfriend does at her job (see below).  And there are multiple routes I can take, depending on traffic and if I'm making a stop for gas or groceries on the way home.

- Less free parking
Most of the parking is in the building's underground garage (see below) which is assigned, so outdoor spaces are limited and fill up fast.  Fortunately, we've only encountered one time so far where there were zero free spots available outside at our building when we got home.  But it's bound to happen again someday.

- Nearby street we can hear
Our last two places have been far away from busy streets, so there was no hearing passing traffic, even with windows open.  But here, we can hear traffic.  Fortunately, it's a 25 MPH road, so it's mostly quiet traffic, kind of like a white noise.  This isn't much of a negative, but if I could get rid of it, I probably would.

- Higher floor
Yet again, we do not get a unit on the ground floor.  And the funny thing is, when we were picking our unit, we had it narrowed down to two units at this place, and one of them was the ground floor and we didn't pick it.  I think it had to do with preferring the layout of the one on the third floor, which we chose.  Anyway, we have to go up another flight of stairs (3 rather than 2) to get to our unit, but fortunately, we have an elevator.  Also, going up stairs is good exercise.

- Package locker/leasing office further away
Again, I can look at this as a good thing as it forces us to get more exercise, but if the weather's bad or it's too dark, it just forces us to drive.  I wish the leasing office and package lockers were closer, but it's still not that far.  

And now for the good things:
- Quieter, don't hear neighbors as much
Sure, we still hear them, but it's less than our last place.  There is a neighbor a few doors down that has one of those small dogs that barks... a lot... but when that dog isn't yapping its little face off, it's a very quiet building.  Well insulated.  

- Shorter commute for my girlfriend
I don't commute too much as stated above, but my girlfriend works a typical 9-5 job Monday through Friday, so she commutes five days a week.  One of the biggest reasons for our move was to get her a shorter commute, since she was often getting home over an hour after she got off, even though it wasn't that far of a drive.  

- More open layout and a kitchen island
I've kinda combined two in one, but they go together, I think.  I like our open layout more, which the kitchen connects to the living room, and we have our bedroom and bathroom to the sides of them.  I like how our bathroom has two entrances to it, one from the bedroom and one from the entryway/kitchen.  And we have a kitchen island, which I've used in many different ways already, from holding cooking appliances, preparing foods, and holding our diffuser or record player.  When I start doing puzzles again, I'm going to do them on the island.  

- More secure, indoors, elevator
Not sure what the word is for our type of building, but you need a key fob to get in (or to be buzzed in from the call box), and the hallways are indoors.  We also have smart locks that don't require a key, but a passcode.  I'm still getting used to not using a physical key for our door (and understanding the security behind it).  And we have an elevator for when we're tired or carrying something heavy.  It sure came in handy with our move!

- Ceiling fans and lights in every room
One issue we've had with most of our places is not having ceiling lights in the living room and/or bedroom.  We've had to rely upon lamps for lighting.  Now, we have too much lighting (lol).  Also, we have ceiling fans that work very well in keeping us cool on warmer days.  Unfortunately, the pullstrings on them break OFTEN, which is quite a nuisance.  But maintenance always fixes them fairly quickly.

- Garage for one of us
We have a garage below our building where people park their vehicles in addition to spaces outside.  We have one spot, which we share.  We decided my girlfriend would have it for the colder months (October-March) and I would have it for the warmer months (April-September).  She doesn't like defrosting her car (I don't mind) and she's instantly indoors once she gets home on those dark and cold evenings.  I also don't want my car out there for the pollination season, which starts around April.

- Just as good if not better of service for TV, internet
I'd say our internet signal, which we get wirelessly through Verizon, is just as good as our previous place.  I think the TV antenna signal we get to watch basic channels is better.  There are trees, but they're not as dense nor close.  Haven't had major issues with either.

- Electric fireplace
We also have an electric fireplace for the first time.  It provides a soothing ambience as well as warmth.  I've already used it a little bit, but I can definitely see myself using it a lot more when it really cools down.  It doesn't take long for the warmth to emanate from it, either.

- Close to Target
I have never lived so close to a store that literally has everything you need.  We are a short walk away from Target, so if there's anything we need, it's right there.  I go there a couple of times a month, and I usually walk when I do.  The times I don't are because what I'm getting I can't carry home.  Now they don't have fresh produce per sé, but there's a Haggen not much further away that does.

Well, that's all I have about our new apartment for now, but if I add anything else, I'll be sure to put it in a different color.

Ten Reasons Why Kamala Harris and the Democrats Lost

It sucks that Donald Trump has seemingly won the 2024 Presidential Election, despite so many things working against him.  I, for one, am surprised at the result.  I thought if he were to win, it would have been by the narrowest of margins, but it ended up not being that close.  We will just have to get through those four years as best we can.  January 20, 2029 cannot come quick enough.  But I was wondering why this happened.  Why did Harris lose when it seemed she had momentum and experts picking her to win?  I have my top ten reasons.

10. People got too comfortable
I don't know what demographic in particular, but I think a decent amount of voters felt 2024 would go the same way as 2020 and, therefore, stayed home or didn't mail their ballot.  I really hope the people that fall under this category regret it, and I'm sure they will come 2028.  

9. Some sympathy for Trump
There were 81 million anti-Trump votes in 2020.  There won't be as many in 2024.  I think a few of those people decided they didn't want to vote against him again, feeling perhaps sympathy for him, which could stem from his assassination attempt, his prosecution (which he claims is political), or something else.  Also, in 2020, there was the recent COVID-19 pandemic that was fresh in people's minds and how Trump poorly handled it.  This time, there wasn't anything like that. 

8. Didn't debate Trump enough
At least Kamala didn't.  Only one debate happened between her and Trump.  Yes, she came off better in the one debate they had, but it wasn't enough to sway a large part of the undecided voters.  I really feel like she could have benefited from a second debate against him, closer to the election.  But I believe Trump refused.  Smart of him, I guess.  

7. No catchy campaign slogan
She had "We're Not Going Back" and "A New Way Forward", but they weren't catchy enough.  They don't hook people.  Honestly, they might be a bit too wordy for the American people.  It's hard to compete with the popularity of the "MAGA" slogan.  Obama ran on two words: "Hope" and "Change".  That's all you need.  And he won twice.  Kamala really could've used a simple, catchy campaign slogan that would've possibly appealed to those of lesser intelligence (maybe).  

6. Harris didn't distance herself enough from Biden
I touch on this in the next reason, but I really wanted to emphasize that I don't believe Kamala did enough to distinguish or distance herself from Biden.  Biden didn't have the best approval rating, so while it may not have been easy to do, she should have explained how she would improve upon what Biden had done.  She should've also explained better how her being president gives her powers she didn't have as Vice President and how she'd rally Congress and both parties to work together.  I think too many voters saw that she was part of the Biden regime that they thought caused inflation and high prices, and they didn't want another term of that.  

5. Didn't explain how they'd fix the economy well enough
One criticism I heard of Kamala Harris was that she didn't articulate well enough how she'd reduce the prices of things.  She said she'd go after corporate price gouging, but not how.  Trump's idea of imposing tariffs, while idiotic, at least was articulated and repeated to his voter base.  I think too many people thought of Kamala as a continuation of Biden and that prices would remain high if she were to get elected.  They obviously didn't do their research, but I hope this will be a learning lesson to future Democrats.  You have to spell it out for voters like they're ten years old, because, unfortunately, a lot of American voters have that level of intelligence.

4. The change from Biden to Harris was poorly-timed
What the Democrats should have done was have Biden continue to run for re-election, then, if and when he wins, step down at some point in his second term for health concerns.  He had beaten Trump once, and he could beat him again.  Granted, I think it would've been a lot tougher, but it certainly would've been a better result than what we got.  And I know, back then, we were calling for him to step down, but I think some voters saw the switch to Harris as like a "bait and switch" and didn't approve.  Also, there just wasn't enough time for Harris to build momentum and a substantial voting base.  If Biden had declined to run for reelection, that would've boded better for the Democrats as well.
 
3. More apathy in 2024 than 2020 from Independents/Moderates
I think too many people were apathetic towards the election.  I believe there will be fewer votes in 2024 than 2020, which is saying something, since our country is growing like most other countries.  People were more passionate about their vote in 2020 than they were this year.  This reason may only be third, but it may be the largest reason why Harris lost.

2. Kamala Harris is a woman
I know many people in this country will always refuse to vote for a female president.  Biden selecting her as his running mate may have been a mistake.  It's not that she did a terrible job as VP.  But her being Biden's successor was not the right call.  When Biden stepped down in July, she was the logical replacement as his VP.  But her gender alone could've been enough for a huge handful of voters to not vote for her.  Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, and many point to her being a woman as a reason why she lost.

1. Americans are fucking stupid
We are.  As a whole.  Some of us are smart.  But man, we have a LOT of dumb-dumbs in this country.  Too many of those dumb-dumbs believe Trump's lies and believed he was being prosecuted for political reasons.  And it's not just what they believe, either.  It's the things they seem to forgive, like being a convicted felon, being a sexual abuser, being a morally awful human being.  All because he's on their side of the political spectrum.  I honestly believe if Satan himself ran for the presidency, he'd have a good chance as long as he was a Republican.  

It looks like we've gone from the Democrats and Republicans alternating the presidency every four years rather than every 8 years.  I guess I hope we continue that pattern in 2028, and get back to a Democrat in office.  I believe we will, as I am predicting Trump will either A) Not finish his presidency, or B) Do something during his presidency to lose support.  I feel like A is more likely, as he seems to be able to get away with anything with his supporters.  Let's just hope we can get through the next four years without our country changing too much for the worse.