I know I just did a post with alternative picks for each of the players, but I wanted to take a slightly different approach here. I wanted to explore a scenario they should've considered. Since they're willing to do a 24-player cast, why not do one representative from each pair of seasons? So one player from 1-2, one player from 3-4, and so on. Also, with the flexibility of returning player seasons, you could select a player from their returning season rather than their OG season if you want to get someone else. This way, the entire history of Survivor is represented. Jeff has said "everywhere in between" was represented when he and the rest of production ignored seasons 19-31.
I will pick 12 men and 12 women from every two seasons of Survivor. I'll try to take a member of the 50 cast when possible, to appease Jeff.
Seasons 1 and 2: Colby Donaldson
Clearly, there was mutual interest, so I'll stick with Colby here. Could use Jenna, but we also have All-Stars to consider her for.
Seasons 3 and 4: Sean Rector
Apparently, he was in the running? Haven't heard anything definitive. But he'd have been a joy to have back.
Seasons 5 and 6: Rob Cesternino
We know he was in the running but cut last minute. Shame. Here's his opportunity. I considered Heidi, but I went with someone who was more in the running, it seems.
Seasons 7 and 8: Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Here we have Jenna. That is all.
Seasons 9 and 10: Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick
And now with Steph. Vanuatu unfortunately gets shut out.
Seasons 11 and 12: Cirie Fields
And now Cirie, since she was on Panama.
Seasons 13 and 14: Jonathan Penner
I'm using Penner here since I'll be saving Ozzy for later.
Seasons 15 and 16: Amanda Kimmel-Cooper
She may have been in the running, so here's Amanda. If not, you could also go with Peih-Gee, Courtney, or Natalie Bolton.
Seasons 17 and 18: Coach Wade
And here we have Coach, since his season was 18 (Tocantins).
Seasons 19 and 20: Courtney Merit
We didn't have Courtney above so I include her here. You could swap her and Amanda; it doesn't matter. They each represent the 15-16 and 19-20 pairings.
Seasons 21 and 22: Fabio Birza
Here we have someone who probably wasn't even in the running for 50, but who else would be cast? These seasons started the dark ages for Survivor...
Seasons 23 and 24: Ozzy Lusth
Ozzy represents these seasons since... who else would it be? Yikes.
Seasons 25 and 26: Abi-Maria Gomes
Apparently, she was in the running, so let's include Abi!
Seasons 27 and 28: Spencer Bledsoe
Why not? He might've been in the running, and we know Jeff loves him.
Seasons 29 and 30: Natalie Anderson
She didn't have a great end to 40, so why not? Could also consider Mama C (Carolyn, 30) here.
Seasons 31 and 32: Aubry Bracco
And now we have Aubry. Yay...
Seasons 33 and 34: Hannah Shapiro
I don't know who else it could be, but I like Hannah and I'm a little surprised she hasn't even been mentioned as a possible returning player.
Seasons 35 and 36: Chrissy Hofbeck
As much as I hate to snub Domenick, I have to go with Chrissy since the producers did. Oh well.
Seasons. 37 and 38: Christian Hubicki
Oof, only one choice between Christian, Devens, Angelina, and Mike? Yikes... Guess I'll go with Christian.
Seasons 39 and 40: Yul Kwon
Screw it, bring Yul back. Give him one more chance.
Seasons 41 and 42: Jonathan Young
Have to stick with the original choice.
Seasons 43 and 44: Carolyn Wiger
Obvious choice is obvious. Although I could've gone with Jesse from 43, then I'd only have women to pick from in my last two picks.
Seasons 45 and 46: Q Burdette
He was the most entertaining character of this bunch, so I'll stick with Q.
Seasons 47 and 48: Genevieve Mushaluk
Had to pick a woman based on the totals so far, so it was either her or Kamilla. We saw Kamilla more recently.
So here's how the new cast stacks up. New players in RED.
Men:
Colby Donaldson (1-2)
Sean Rector (3-4)
Rob Cesternino (5-6)
Jonathan Penner (13-14)
Coach Wade (17-18)
Fabio Birza (21-22)
Ozzy Lusth (23-24)
Spencer Bledsoe (27-28)
Christian Hubicki (37-38)
Yul Kwon (39-40)
Jonathan Young (41-42)
Q Burdette (45-46)
Women:
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty (7-8)
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick (9-10)
Cirie Fields (11-12)
Amanda Kimmel (15-16)
Courtney Merit (19-20)
Abi-Maria Gomes (25-26)
Natalie Anderson (29-30)
Aubry Bracco (31-32)
Hannah Shapiro (33-34)
Chrissy Hofbeck (35-36)
Carolyn Wiger (43-44)
Genevieve Mushaluk (47-48)
Look at that, exactly half the cast changes. I think I'd prefer this cast as well. And this way, they could have said we drew from every era of Survivor and meant it. No gaps.
Friday, June 6, 2025
How I would've done Survivor 50's Cast
Friday, May 30, 2025
Alternative Picks for Each of the Survivor 50 Cast
I already gave my thoughts on the Survivor 50 cast, and while it's a decent cast and it should be a fun watch, I would have to say for a large majority of them, there is a player who I'd rather see, and most of those alternatives are people who would actually want to play again. So in other words, I think they mostly got the cast wrong. And I will do my best to pick a player of the same archetype or at least of the same gender, and even from the same era, although I'm going to replace a lot of New Era players with non-New Era players. I'll go through and list an alternative for each player on 50, and then I'll rate it on a scale of 1-5. Here's what the scale means:
1- I actually prefer who the producers chose, but not by a ton.
2- I'm okay either way. Happy to see either choice.
3- I would kind of prefer to see my choice, but I understand.
4- I really prefer my choice. I need an explanation, Jeffrey.
5- WTF why didn't they chose my person instead of theirs I'm so mad.
Player cast: Jenna Lewis-Dougherty - Borneo, All-Stars
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jerri Manthey, Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
Rating: 4
Comment: I'm guessing they really wanted someone from Borneo to have someone bookend 1 and 50, but I'd much rather have Jerri on my screen again than Jenna. Besides, gotta have Jerri to go with Colby!
Player cast: Colby Donaldson - Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Rob Cesternino - Amazon, All-Stars
Rating: 4
Comment: How can they have Colby and not Jerri? Sigh. I know, Colby is one of the biggest names in Survivor history, but Rob Cesternino is up there as well, especially with RHAP.
Player cast: Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick - Palau, Guatemala, Heroes vs. Villains
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Heidi Hamels (nee Strobel) - Amazon
Rating: 3
Comment: Funnily enough, these two both married MLB pitchers. But I'd rather see Heidi, who I know has kept in good shape, since she hasn't returned yet, while Stephenie has twice. But I undestand going for Stephenie as she is the bigger name.
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Amanda Kimmel - China, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains
Rating: 3
Comment: Amanda is the only one of the Black Widow Brigade's F3 that hasn't played in recent years. There were rumors she might return. She did pop up recently with her real estate business in Montana. But I guess she's done with the show.
Player cast: Ozzy Lusth - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, South Pacific, Game Changers
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jonathan Penner - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Philippines
Rating: 4
Comment: Again, if we had to cast someone from Cook Islands and Micronesia, why not Penner? I know he's older, but I know his story about his wife would touch everyone. But Ozzy not being able to dominate in challenges anymore makes him just not as entertaining.
Player cast: Coach Wade - Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains, South Pacific
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Stephen Fishbach - Tocantins, Cambodia: Second Chance
Rating: 2
Coach is the first casting that I probably wouldn't change. But he's in his 50s, and I don't need a senile Coach. Although that'd be entertaining. I know Stephen has stayed in the community, appearing on RHAP, and I'd love to see him play again.
Player cast: Aubry Bracco - Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Edge of Extinction
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Abi-Maria Gomes - Philippines, Cambodia: Second Chance
Rating: 4
Comment: Abi is such an entertaining villainess, and from her social media, we know she wanted to play again and was in the casting process. Aubry to me isn't nearly as entertaining. And we've seen Aubry one more time (now two more times) than Abi.
Player cast: Chrissy Hofbeck - Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Victoria Baamonde - Edge of Extinction
Rating: 3
Comment: Like I said in my previous post, the show basically owes Chrissy, but I think I'd rather see Victoria. Not that she's the same archetype, but I think she's better TV, if slightly. Plus, she's younger and easier on the eyes.
Player cast: Christian Hubicki - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Devon Pinto
Rating: 1
Comment: I even struggled to think of someone for this. Christian is 100% a good casting. Devon, however, would be fun to see back, too.
Player cast: Angelina Keeley - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Hannah Shapiro - Millennials vs. Gen X
Rating: 1
Comment: Again, I'm 100% ok with this casting. Hannah, however, would have been an out of left field casting that I would appreciate.
Player cast: Mike White - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Domenick Abbate - Ghost Island
Rating: 5
Comment: Jeff picking his friend over the only person to lose a tiebreaking FTC vote is certainly a choice. Mike isn't a boring character, at least. But Domenick would be so fun to see.
Player cast: Rick Devens - Edge of Extinction
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Dean Kowalski - Island of the Idols
Rating: 1
Comment: Again, no complaints. Love seeing Devens back. Dean was an underrated character who I was rooting for on his season, so there's that.
Player cast: Jonathan Young - 42
Who I'd maybe cast instead: David Kinne - 48
Rating: 2
Comment: I could go either way with these New Era challenge beasts. Jonathan was more of a pre-merge challenge beast, while David did a little better with post-merge challenges. I like David's strategic game a little more, though. Oh well.
Player cast: Emily Flippen - 45
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Carolyn Wiger - 44
Rating: 4
Comment: I think I'm in the majority in saying Carolyn would be more interesting than Emily, although both are good TV. I just wonder why they chose Emily over Carolyn. Just seems puzzling.
Player cast: Dee Valladares - 45
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Kellie Nalbandian - 45
Rating: 3
First off, why two winners? Feels weird. But I think Kellie was a diamond in the rought (would greatly improve with a second chance), so maybe Kellie should wait for Second Chances 2, if they ever do that.
Player cast: Quintavius "Q" Burdette - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Kaleb Gebrewold - 45
Rating: 2
Q is a great character, so I'm not complaining. But I really want to see Kaleb back, as well. But I will admit Q is a better character. I'd just prefer to see Kaleb's gameplay.
Player cast: Charlie Davis - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Austin Li Coon - 45
Rating: 2
Comment: I really liked 45's cast, I guess! Both these guys lost a final tribal to a young female. But if they were going to bring back Dee, I think they should've brought back Austin.
Player cast: Tiffany Ervin - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Shan Smith - 41
Rating: 5
Comment: Shan is a villain, with her own "Shanthem". What does Tiffany bring? Uh.... she got voted out with an idol? She dealt with Q and Bhanu? She's not a bad character or player, but it certainly is puzzling to say the least.
Player cast: Genevieve Mushaluk - 47
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Karla Cruz Godoy - 43
Rating: 3
Comment: First, 50 needs more queer representation. But secondly, Karla was a more interesting character to me. She wasn't purpled pre-merge like Genevieve was. Plus, add another POC.
Player cast: Kyle Fraser - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jesse Lopez - 43
Rating: 5
Comment: Why did Kyle have to return so soon? Doesn't make a ton of sense. And how they didn't cast Jesse will puzzle me for a long time. I really want to try to understand this, but I can't.
Player cast: Joe Hunter - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Cody Assenmacher - 43
Rating: 4
Comment: Another from 43 I'd love to see again is Cody. And he was more interesting than Joe. As endearing? Maybe not. I just feel like in casting they were too biased towards the recent seasons.
Player cast: Kamilla Karthigesu - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Maryanne Okech, 42
Rating: 2
Comment: Well, if we're going to bring back winners, why not Maryanne? She was a very fun and likable winner. Although I'm interested to see how Kamilla does on a quick second chance.
Player cast: Male 49 returning player
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Hunter McKnight, 46
Rating: 4
Comment: I'm not going to spoil who it is here (look it up if you want to know), but regardless of how that player is, I'd rather see Hunter. I liked him. Why the heck not?
Player cast: Female 49 returning player
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Star Toomey, 48
Rating: 3
Comment: If we're going to bring back players from 48, why not Star? She was entertaining as all get-out, the few times she was on screen. But we'll have to wait and see how a certain someone is on 49.
And now that I've gone over alternate picks, here's an alternate cast of 50. I'm going to replace each player if I gave a 3 or higher. If I gave a 1 or 2, I won't.
Males:
Rob Cesternino
Jonathan Penner
Coach Wade
Christian Hubicki
Domenick Abbate
Rick Devens
Jonathan Young
Q Burdette
Charlie Davis
Jesse Lopez
Cody Assenmacher
Hunter McKnight
Females:
Jerri Manthey
Heidi Strobel
Amanda Kimmel
Abi-Maria Gomes
Victoria Baamonde
Angelina Keeley
Carolyn Wiger
Kellie Nalbandian
Shan Smith
Karla Cruz Godoy
Kamilla Karthigesu
Star Toomey
Now which cast is better, the actual 50 cast or my 50 cast? Obviously, I think my own, but I'm still happy with the one they actually chose. But there sure are some really good ones they missed out on.
Wednesday, May 28, 2025
My Thoughts on Each of the Survivor 50 Players
The Survivor 50 Cast has officially been revealed, and I'm somewhere between whelmed and excited. I guess you could say my excitement is tempered. There are a few things I'd like to comment on now, such as no players whose original season was between Seasons 19-31, and how we got 11 players from seasons 45-49. Definitely some recency bias there. But man, it is going to be so fun seeming some of these players interact. For each player, I'm going to rate them on a scale of 1-5 (5 being the highest) on how much I'm personally clamoring to see them back (which includes how much I'll be rooting for them) and what I think their chances of winning are.
After reviewing each player, I'm going to pick my Top 5 Duos I want to see interact. Each duo will be someone new, so I won't use the same player for any two duos.
Also, there are two rumored players from 49 on 50, but I won't comment on them just yet, since I haven't seen them play. After 49, however, I'll come back and talk about them here.
Here we go, in order of their initial season...
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty - Borneo, All-Stars
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of Winning: 2
They had to have a token Borneo player, and I know people were rooting for Greg, maybe a Colleen or Gervase. But Jenna works, I guess. I kind of expect her run to go similarly to Kelly Wigglesworth's in Second Chances. Possibly a purple edit with no real chance of winning. But, you never know. She will certainly not be a threat. My biggest worry for her is the older players being targeted early, just like they were in Winners at War.
Colby Donaldson - Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 2
I don't think I've even seen what Colby looks like in recent years. Surely he's nowhere near as athletic. But he was the first legitimate star of Survivor, with people naming their kids after him. One thing I've wondered is if he may have had more win equity in HvV than AO. He had Hero pals on the jury. If he can make friends and get to the end, you never know. But like Jenna, I worry about the newbies ganging up on the "oldies".
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick - Palau, Guatemala, Heroes vs. Villains
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 1
Stephanie couldn't win a season she had an edge on as a captain, so I don't think she'll be capable of winning here. I actually expect her to be an early boot, like she was on HvV, as I worry about her ingratiating herself with other tribe members, especially more recent players. Or she could slip on by. It'll depend on what the main driving force will be on a lot of votes.
Cirie Fields - Panama: Exile Island, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains, Game Changers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 4
Anyone else suffering Cirie fatigue? That kinda rhymes. And I didn't even really watch her Traitors season or her international Survivor season. I worry the show may force her too much on us, or may try to hand her the win. I'm okay with Cirie winning if it happens, but I don't want it in any way to be given to her. Honestly, I'm kinda clamoring for her to go out in some way she hasn't gone yet.
Ozzy Lusth - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, South Pacific, Game Changers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
Just... why? I don't quite get it. On Game Changers, we saw he had physically declined and could no longer dominate challenges. That was filmed 9 years before 50 will film. So Ozzy will have to rely on his social and strategic game. IF he gets to the end, I could see it, but he'd have to get to the end. Also, since he got into the adult entertainment industry, I'm surprised they wanted him back. Hmm.
Coach Wade - Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains, South Pacific
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 2
Coach is such a great character, even in his 50s, I'm sure he'll bring something to the show. I wonder who he will say is the "dragon" of this season. There are a lot of choices. And honestly, it'd be smart for a lot of the newer players to bring him along as a potential FTC goat, like Sophie did in SP. I don't think Coach's chances of winning are a "1", as if he plays a similar game to SP and owns up his game at the end (unlike what he did that season), he has a shot... I guess.
Aubry Bracco - Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Edge of Extinction
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 4
Typically, someone fairly smart (often a woman) wins these All-Star-type seasons, like Amber in All-Stars, Parvati in Micronesia, and Sandra in HvV. Aubry could be that this season. Is the fourth time the charm? And yes, I don't really need to see her play again, but it is what it is. I just think she's really going to fade into the background with larger names taking more focus.
Chrissy Hofbeck - Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
The show definitely "owes" Chrissy due to the stupid twist of forced fire-making that surprised the cast of that season. I believe Jeff when he says it was planned (and not just put in because Ben was in danger), but I also believe he likely told Chrissy after the season how he probably felt bad with the way it played out and promised her a chance on a returning player season due to that. Otherwise, her inclusion feels... a bit out of place. She may get purpled, as I think she's one of the less interesting characters on this cast.
Christian Hubicki - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 5
Chances of winning: 3
I have been clamoring for his return for years. Thank goodness. I think Christian's chances are somewhere in the middle. He'll definitely have to keep his threat level low enough into the merge, should he make it that far. If he plays a great game and gets to the end, I could see it. But the problem is, I don't see him making the end.
Angelina Keeley - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 2
It's hard to rank FTC losers higher than a 2 on chances of winning. The only person to win AFTER losing at a FTC is Boston Rob. But I'm fairly excited to see Angelina back. I worry, however, that she won't be as engaging, funny, or meme-worthy. I really hope she tries to negotiate something with Jeff, and the show would be smart to open that opportunity.
Mike White - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 1
Mike is a millionaire already, so he's not going to win. He would have to play the greatest game we've ever seen. However, he may be worth a few funny moments on the show. I just wasn't clamoring to see him, and we know he only got back on due to his friendship with Jeff, and how Jeff very likely told him he'd be on the next non-winners returning players season.
Rick Devens - Edge of Extinction
How much I want to see: 5
Chances of winning: 3
Dude was made for TV, and I'm excited to see him back. He's kept in touch with the show, being the co-host of the On Fire podcast for a season. Like Christian, I'll be rooting for him and hope to see him go far, but I'm worried about his chances of getting to the end.
Jonathan Young - 42
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 1
Yes, I am putting Jonathan's chances of winning at a 1. He has little to no social/strategic game, as we saw on 42. Is there a chance he has some on 50? Sure, but there's no way it'll be enough for him to win. His best shot would be to absolutely dominate the individual challenges and be likable enough along the way to win. But the moment he doesn't win one, he's gone. I'll still be stoked to see him dominate challenges, and whoever gets him on their tribe is going to be very lucky.
Emily Flippen - 45
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 3
She can make good points and I think if she gets to the end in 45 against anyone except Dee, she likely wins. I'm also surprised to see her, as I know she said on social media shortly after 45, that she likely wouldn't play again. Well, I guess we all have to eat our words at some point. There are certain players I know she won't like, such as Coach, Q, and Jonathan, and she's very likely to have someone like that on her starting tribe.
Dee Valladares - 45
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
I almost wanted to put Dee's chances at a 1, but Sandra pulled off the back-to-back wins, and they have similar games, so I could see it. But man, I wish they hadn't cast winners. It'll be interesting to see how she downplays it. I could see her being an early target, or make it very far. High variance player to say the least.
Quintavius "Q" Burdette - 46
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 1
Like Coach, Q is such a great character for TV. I cannot see him winning, however. His problem is that I don't think he'd be taken seriously enough. He's kind of like the male Angelina that way. But he is going to have some interesting interactions with people, I can almost guarantee that.
Charlie Davis - 46
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 3
Charlie is the young white male who's come the closest to winning in the New Era, technically losing by a single vote. I don't think he'll be considered a threat, which is good for him. I wonder if he'll find another Maria on 50, perhaps Jenna, Chrissy, or heck, even Cirie. I'd be down for any of those duos.
Tiffany Ervin - 46
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 3
I'm really perplexed by this one. There are plenty of African-American women in the New Era to choose from, and they go with... Tiff. Here's a list I'd personally rather see: Shan, Drea, Lauren, and Sai, and Star. All to me are either better players or characters. Tiff is a well-rounded Survivor player, but I don't think she excels at anything. Perhaps she'll be the Wentworth of the season and blossom more of a player and character.
Genevieve Mushaluk - 47
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 4
I was a bit surprised by this pick, mostly because Gen was purpled in the pre-merge on her season. I really like her chances, but I worry because of the All-Star cast that she'll get purpled again. If she wins, they better not. There are so many threats that she could sneak by and be the Parvati/Amber of the season.
Kyle Fraser - 48
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 1
Like... why? I don't dislike Kyle at all. As a character, he was mid. Not boring, but not the most engaging, either. As a player, well, he just won, so why? Kyle ties Jenna (6 and 8) and JT (18 and 20) as the players who returned most quickly after winning. Neither of them did particularly well on their returning seasons, although Jenna left of her own accord. I cannot see Kyle doing well, and his target as a winner will either carry him as a goat or be a target for him at some point.
Joe Hunter - 48
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
I just finished his season, so I'm not exactly clamoring to see him back at the moment, especially considering he wasn't the most interesting character. Will he find another Eva this season? There aren't many options for someone of that archetype. I could see him trying to Godfather his way through the season but be on the outs at some point, like Boston Rob was on WaW. He's got almost no shot.
Kamilla Karthigesu - 48
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 4
Yes, I actually want to see Kamilla back, but I wasn't counting on it with Kyle. They'll likely be put on different starting tribes, however, but if they both make it to the merge, Kyle better do everything in his power to help her. Although I could definitely see if they both make the merge, that putting a target on both of their backs. But Kamilla is one of the smarter players in recent history. I could see it. If she did win, she would tie Jeremy Collins (29-31) in the quickest return from the game to a winning season. Boston Rob also won two seasons after he played, but his winning game was his fourth time playing.
And there are two players on 49 who are also on 50, who I did see who they are, but I won't spoil it here. But at this point, I would give each of their "want to see" scores a 1 and a chances of winning also a 1, because no one has won any season playing back-to-back.
And as previously promised, here are 5 duos I'm excited to see interact:
- Christian and Kamilla
Or Christian with anyone smart. I want to see them decode a really tough puzzle together. That'd be fun.
- Coach and Q
Can you imagine the chaos? I bet Coach will make Q his dragon if the opportunity arises.
- Colby and Jonathan
The OG challenge beast and the New Era challenge beast. I know Jonathan must look up to Colby, so this would be cool to see. I know Jonathan is good friends with Boston Rob, so this is a natural fit.
- Cirie and Devens
Or Charlie, Christian, really any likable younger man. I bet she'll bond with someone like that.
- Aubry and Emily
I bet they will form an instant connection if given the chance. Let's hope they are.
And lastly, just for organization's sake, here's everyone ranked by their chances of winning:
1's:
Stephanie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Mike White
Jonathan Young
Q Burdette
Kyle Fraser
2's:
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Colby Donaldson
Ozzy Lusth
Coach Wade
Chrissy Hofbeck
Angelina Keeley
Dee Valladares
Joe Hunter
3's:
Christian Hubicki
Rick Devens
Emily Flippen
Charlie Davis
Tiffany Ervin
4's:
Cirie Fields
Aubry Bracco
Genevieve Mushaluk
Kamilla Karthigesu
And I did not give out any 5's. Well, it's hard to figure out what each player's threat levels are going to be like coming into this. And I didn't really want to hand out any 5's because that's basically giving away my winner pick. Anyway, I'll come back and add the players from 49 once that is over, and probably do another post or two about this cast before the season even airs.
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
My Thoughts and Grades on the Seahawks 2025 Draft Class and 54-Man Roster Prediction
The 2025 Draft has concluded, and I think the Seahawks had a very solid draft. They addressed positions of need, and I think this team will be very competitive this season. I'm going to go over each draft pick, my brief thoughts, and give a letter grade, and finish with some final thoughts. I am going to be a bit on the harsher side with my grading, so be forewarned.
Afterwards, I'll predict a rough idea of the 54-man roster. Likely going to be very wrong in some spots, but I'll do my best.
Round 1 Pick 18: Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
Very solid pick. It's not particularly exciting nor flashy, but it's what we needed. We can only hope he adjuts to the NFL and doesn't rack up a ton of penalties. We need to run the ball more, and Grey will help with that. I think Grey was projected more as a late first-rounder, so we could've maybe traded down and gotten something from it.
Grade: B-
Round 2 Pick 35: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
My favorite pick of the draft. He was often mocked as a late first-rounder, so this was a steal. Smart of John to trade up to snag him here while he was still available. I can't wait to see the backside defense of Love and Emmanwori.
Grade: A
Round 2 Pick 50: Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami
The first real headscratcher for me. We already have two very solid tight ends in Fant and Barner. Perhaps Fant will be a cap casualty in training camp since he is paid over $10 million a season. I didn't think we particularly needed tight end help, but we'll see. I've heard decent things, but we already have an emerging stud in Barner. Perhaps we can have what the Patriots had in the early 2010s with Gronk and Hernandez.
Grade: C
Round 3 Pick 92: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
It will remain to be seen how good this pick is. I think it would be foolish of us to think Jalen will match what Russ did in his career, our last QB drafted this high. Let's hope he can grow and learn from the sidelines and not get pressed into action too early. I think that's why we got Lock as well. I'm ok with this pick, but I think the odds are more likely that Jalen doesn't have success with the Hawks than he does.
Grade: C-
Round 5 Pick 142: Rylie Mills, DT, Notre Dame
Don't know too much about him, but I know we always need nose tackle depth. We'll be hoping Byron Murphy takes a big step in his second year, but Mills is good insurance.
Grade: C+
Round 5 Pick 166: Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State
One of the two WRs of this draft is going to be a hit and shine in training camp, and I bet it'll be Horton. WR was definitely a position of need, at least where we needed depth.
Grade: B
Round 5 Pick 175: Robbie Ouzts, FB/TE, Alabama
Are we going back to old school I formation football? Perhaps for some plays. If so, I'm down. He could also play special teams, so this is a very solid pick. But the thing is, we already had Brady Russell, who is switching to FB as well. I think only one can make the roster.
Grade: B-
Round 6 Pick 192: Bryce Cabeldue, G, Kansas
Yes! More midwestern O-Linemen! Hey, he might be a steal. Likely won't outplay Grey, but imagine if they both end up starting. I will never hate an O-Line pick unless we have too many of them, which will never happen.
Grade: B+
Round 7 Pick 223: Damien Martinez, RB, Miami
This reminds me of another late-round running back, ALSO out of the University of Miami. That being Travis Homer. He was a very good special-teams player for a while. But I think Martinez will be more of a third-string/third-down back. We'll see. Can't hate a late running back selection.
Grade: B
Round 7 Pick 234: Mason Richman, OL, Iowa
Our THIRD midwestern offensive lineman! Love it. Odds are only one of Cabledue or Richman make the team, unless they maybe push Bradford out (honestly, kinda hope they do).
Grade: B
Round 7 Pick 238: Ricky White III, WR, UNLV
Like I mentioned with Horton, one of these guys is going to make a splash in training camp, I bet. It might not be Ricky White, but you never know.
Grade: B+
Overall Grade/GPA: 2.81 (B- average)
Overall, very solid draft for John Schneider and company. I didn't hate a single pick. In all likelihood, maybe 7 or so (out of 11) of them make the team this season, with perhaps 3 or 4 playing multiple significant seasons with the team. But it's how significant those seasons end up being that will determine how successful this draft truly is.
Just for funsies, I'll also predict the 54-man roster and possible practice squad:
QB (3): Darnold, Lock, Milroe
RB/FB (6): Walker, Charbonnet, Martinez, McIntosh, Holani, Ouzts
TE (3): Barner, Arroyo, Saubert
WR (5): Kupp, Smith-Njigba, Valdez-Scantling, Horton, Bobo
OL (10): Oluwatimi, Sundell, Cabledue, Richman, Haynes, Laumea, Zabel, Cross, Lucas, Jerrell
26
DL (7): Lawrence, Mills, Williams, Murphy, Reed, Morris, Pili
LB/Edge (7): Hall, Jones, Knight, Mafe, Nwosu, Smith, Sheriff
CB (5): Witherspoon, Woolen, Pritchett, Jobe, Jean-Charles
S (5): Bryant, Love, Emmanwori, Reed, Finley/Bell
24
ST (3): Myers, Dickson, Stoll
Notable cuts: Noah Fant, Dareke Young, Anthony Bradford
Practice Squad candidates:
Ricky White, WR
Cody White, WR
Hall, CB
Bohanna, DT
Aumavae-Laulu, G
O'Connell, LB
Thomas, LB
I'm probably way off with the numbers regarding positions, but it should be fun for me to see how close I get! Training camp is still three months away... sigh. But it should be hear before we know it! :D
Friday, April 18, 2025
My Votes in Each Round of Survivor 50's Fan Voting
Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans (Lame title, IMO) has started its online voting as they're going to allow fans to have an impact on certain game elements. A lot are cosmetic, but some will impact how the showrunners and producers run the game. Here are the rounds and votes so far, what I said for each, and why.
ROUND 1
Rice or no rice?
I said: Rice
I think Survivors play a more intelligent and well-thought-out game when they aren't nearly starving to death. Operation Italy doesn't happen in 47 without the food reward. Give them rice, I say. Yes, I like Survivor to be tough, but this still allows the game to be tough. They had rice in S2: The Australian Outback, one of the toughest seasons. It also adds a potential layer of drama with someone maybe eating too much rice, them using up too much too soon, or someone not cooking the rice well.
Forced Fire-Making at Final 4?
I said: No Fire-Making
I wish Jeff understood that by introducing Final 4 Firemaking, it only made it so that the threats were taken out even sooner, and we got less time with them. Some say Ben only won HHH because of this, but I say he only won it because of all the idols he kept finding. So if Jeff wants big names like Ben to get to the end, allow Idols to be good through the Final 4. Also, if you're a good enough player, you can stay under the radar, and you'll be a part of the majority at Final 4. Allow firemaking if there's a deadlock at Final 4, sure, but let them have a chance to vote first.
Live Reunion in Los Angeles or Fiji Aftershow?
I said: Live Reunion in Los Angeles
This is a no-brainer. The Fiji aftershow is downright cruel to the final tribal council losers. At least give them time to reflect on their game and prepare themselves for what to say if they lose. Plus, the live reunion allows us to get all players in on it, not just the ones who made the jury. I'm tired of the pre-jurors getting snubbed.
Tribe Colors
I said: Orange, Teal, and Purple
First off, *sigh*, it looks like it's going to be another three tribe season. No way one of the three is the merge tribe. Anyway, it was between this and Blue, Orange, and Green for me. I chose the one I did because we don't see teal enough as a tribe color. But the remaining two options each contained colors that have been used 3+ times in the New Era. My second choice would've been Blue, Orange, and Green, because those are my three favorite colors. I guess I'd also be okay with Red, Green, and Yellow, since those were the colors in the first returning player season ever (All-Stars, Season 8), so it would pay homage to that.
ROUND 2
Final 4 Challenge
I said: Simmotion
What can I say, I love Simmotion. If you don't know, it's the one where you have to constantly catch the balls out of the chutes and put them back on top as they make their way down a mechanism, and you slowly add more balls to it, increasing the difficulty. It really does a good job of showing which Survivors still have the best focus in the game. Plus, it's a classic going back to (at least) S18: Tocantins. I decided against the Final 4 challenge from 46 because pre-game alliances could affect whether someone decides to help another player here. They could abandon their puzzle and help the other player know when to catch their ball. I don't think people want to see that. The third option looked way too similar to dozens of other new era challenges: an obstacle course with a puzzle at the end. Easy one to rule out.
Advantages: How much power?
I said: Minimal power
There is a fine line between too many advantages and not enough. I think the consensus on it is less than what Jeff and production think, which is why I chose "minimal" power. Also, let the players play. They will be legends of the game, after all. And yes, a lot of great game moments have come from an idol or advantage being involved, but typically not multiple, and typically it's a situation not too convoluted or complex to understand. Lastly, there's a good chance a lot of viewers will be returning to the show for the first time in years, likely due to a returning player they like, so they really shouldn't overcomplicate the game for anyone returning after not watching the past dozen seasons or more.
Tribe Swap or No Tribe Swap?
I said: Tribe Swap
This one I debated on. I don't like how the showrunners have only used a tribe swap when a tribe has struggled in the New Era. It should be more random. If they keep it up, players may throw a challenge to avoid a tribe swap. But maybe they want that. Anyway, tribe swaps add a layer of complexity to the game, and especially for a returning player season, we will want to see as many interactions between players as possible. If this were a newbie season we were voting on, I'd likely say "no swap" since I like to see tribal lines tested, not blurred. But again, returning player season. Got to have as many interactions as possible.
ROUND 3
Immunity Necklace Design
I said: Option B (Bird and wingspan make up half of the necklace)
Option A isn't bad, but minus the bird emblem, it looks like dozens of other immunity necklaces. Option B, however, is pretty sick. The literal wingspan of the bird makes up half the necklace. You would look like you literally have a mythical bird on your chest when wearing it. Whereas the other one is relegated to a round emblem on the bottom of it.
Tribe Supplies
I said: Give them Tribe Supplies
This goes with the rice, so I'm sure people will typically have the same answer for this as they did for rice. I said to give them supplies. The "sweat vs. savvy" and the one-on-ones in recent seasons have been underwhelming and a waste of time, frankly. Don't make whether or not they have a pot or machete yet or flint a part of the game. Let the players be the focus. Also, why even have this be a part of the game if they don't even bother to show the tribes struggling when they don't have supplies?
Twists
I said: Keep them straightforward/rare
I'm a big fan of old school Survivor. New School has had its fun with twists, but I fear introducing twists could leave older players in the dust, strategically. Like in Winners at War, I don't want to see all the old school players go early. Give them a chance. Keep the game simple and give them a chance to run their game without having twists they wouldn't have had to worry about on their original season(s).
ROUND 4
Idols or No Idols?
I said: No Idols
A bit disappointing this final round of voting only had one thing for us to vote on. I voted "No Idols", but I could've been convinced to vote the other way. I voted "No Idols" to basically spite Jeff and the producers. The way they word some of these, they think we can't have a good season of Survivor anymore without a bunch of twists and idols and advantages. But here's the other thing: I'd rather have a season with no idols than a season with too many idols. I think this vote will be a bit close and I ultimately think there being Idols will win, but I just wanted to show Jeff and production more of us want a less twist and Idol-heavy season than he may think.
Monday, March 10, 2025
My Thoughts Regarding the Turnover of the Seahawks Offense
In what has been a busy offseason for Seahawks GM John Schneider, the Seahawks have already started completely revamping their offense. Gone are Tyler Lockett, Geno Smith, and DK Metcalf. In is Sam Darnold, and likely a receiver from the draft or free agency (ended up being Cooper Kupp!). I'm going to make some bullet point overriding thoughts I have about these moves for each player, go into further detail, and then talk about the outlook for the Seahawks this coming season, despite the rest of free agency and the draft needing to happen.
- We knew Tyler Lockett was going to be cut
Unfortunately, the NFL is a business, and Lockett was making too much for the production he was providing. It was inevitable. There is still a small chance they bring him back on a team-friendly deal, especially since Tyler's real estate business is centered here. His veteran presence will be missed, but perhaps the Seahawks will bring a cheaper veteran in to training camp. - Geno's gone because he overvalued himself
Sounds like the two sides were far apart in negotiations. Sure, you can try to find a middle, but it seemed like neither side wanted to compromise that much. Geno's TD/Int ratio was only 1.4 last season. That's below league average for a starting quarterback these days. I wonder if there was any chance of waiting until after next season was over. But, the rumor is because they couldn't reach a deal, Geno wanted a deal with someone else, then. I think we had seen Geno's ceiling, which was a winning QB, but not a QB with success in the playoffs. Might as well try something new. - DK Metcalf is a great talent, but has his flaws
Fortunately for the Steelers and Mike Tomlin, DK's problems are primarily mental. He sometimes lets his emotions get the best of him. DK also doesn't have great ball security and occasionally will drop a pass. That stuff can be fixed. The Steelers will either make or break the rest of DK's career. I wish we could've gotten a first for him, but a 2nd will have to do. Hopefully, we can get a good player from it--more of a Bobby Wagner than a Marquise Blair (Both 2nd round picks by the Hawks). I'll miss DK's freakish athleticism, but I won't miss his immature attitude. - Sam Darnold, the next Matt Flynn?
Interesting how history sometimes repeats itself. The Seahawks signed Matt Flynn in 2012 after he had one good game after being mostly a backup. The Seahawks signed Sam Darnold after he had one good season after being a backup for the last few years. Perhaps we will take a QB in the 3rd or 4th round of the draft who may be our next Russell Wilson. I'll certainly be watching out for that. But Darnold likely is the starter at first, regardless of who we take in April's draft. But we also thought that about Flynn after we signed him. I think Darnold will do okay, but the key will be protecting him and establishing the run. So our next focus has to be offensive line.
Thursday, February 27, 2025
SURVIVOR 48 FOUR WORD GAME
Survivor 48 has had its premiere, and what an interesting cast we have so far. Like past seasons, I'm going to give each player remaining in the game (and the booted player) four words to describe the current state of their game, what they need to do, what I noticed, and anything that might stand out about them to me. I'll then elaborate a tiny bit on that, especially early on considering I have a lot of players to get through.
As always, I'll be starting with my lowest-ranked player, then going sequentially to my highest ranked player. This first week is based off of my pre-season rankings from my other Survivor 48 post. Let's go!EPISODE 1 FOUR WORD GAME
Thomas: Not an early boot
Thomas bonding with the men and Bianca proves to me he's likely making the merge. In fact, one could argue he's one of the most insulated players in the game. I think I was very wrong on Thomas.
Shauhin: Male alliance should carry
The ironically named "California Girls" alliance should carry Shauhin for a while. It's good that Shauhin and Joe are cool with that.
Bianca: Alliance with men crucial
It may not be the best spot, but being the #4 in the California Girls alliance is better than nothing (although Bianca is from New Jersey). Trying to turn on them would be dumb. The men have the control on that tribe.
Cedrek: Must turn if necessary
Cedrek formed an alliance with Sai, and a semi-alliance with Justin and Kevin. If Justin and Kevin propose it, Cedrek must be willing to turn on her or he'll go down with her.
Sai: Record setting aggressive machine
Sai is a record-setter as she broke the record for confessionals in one episode with 21! That largely had to do with her idol find, but wow. She's also playing very aggressively on a tribe that's likely going to tribal again. That's extremely risky. She would be wise to play her idol at the next tribal.
Mitch: Will be heartbreaking boot
I definitely have a different perception of Mitch now than I did preseason. Had I actually watched his video, I would've seen how bad his stutter is. So it'll be interesting to see how other players treat him. He doesn't seem to be in the best spot (a four-person alliance formed on his tribe without him in it), so it doesn't look great.
Joe: Sacrifices game for Eva?
That comment that he'd rather go home than turn on her spoke volumes, and I believe him. Joe seems like such a stand-up dude. He and Eva were definitely framed in a positive light. Plus, his physical nature is helping his tribe beast challenges so far. Also, I was very wrong about purple being the disaster tribe. It's green.
Kamilla: Oddball fitting in okay
Kamilla formed a bond and a four-person alliance with Kyle, David, and Chrissy. That was good to see for her. I think others might find her kooky, so while she's fitting in now, don't count on it all season.
Eva: Picked the right person
To confide in. I think we'll be looking back at that moment towards the end of this season as a huge point in the game. I think Eva and Joe both make it far. I don't see people gunning for Eva as a threat, and Joe will be around to protect her.
David: Rubbing people wrong way
He just comes off as one of those macho guys that people don't really get along with unless they too are a macho guy. The questions he asked were weird, but fortunately for him, he's in an alliance.
Mary: Bottom on bad tribe
The worst spot to be in. She voted incorrectly at the first tribal, and their tribe looks like they'll likely lose multiple challenges. Mary's got a lot of work to do to just make the merge. We could be looking at an Ua 2.0 here, when Shan and Ricard were the only two to make the merge from their tribe (in 41).
Charity: On outs and quiet
Not great. She wasn't included in the alliance, some things were said about her to make us think she's going soon, and we didn't get a ton of content from her, anyway. It's not looking great for Charity.
Justin: Let pizza analogies fly!
I may reference pizza in every one of his Four Word games, just FYI. Love the pizza analogies and love the pizza shirt. Unfortunately for Justin, he's on a bad tribe, so hopefully they recover. Fortunately, though, he and Kevin seem to be in the prime position to decide who goes.
Star: Clearly first to go
On Lagi, anyway. There's the California Girls (aka the men), and Thomas has a connection to Bianca while Joe has a connection to Eva. That leaves Star on the outs. Sucks for her.
Chrissy: Already see she's lasting
I can already tell from one episode that Chrissy is going to last a while. Orange likely won't go to too many pre-merge tribals, and if they do, Charity and Mitch are ahead of her in the pecking order. She could be yet another older lady that loses at the end.
Kyle: Good dude, deserves better
That was awesome of Kyle to help Kevin finish since he was essentially DQ'ed. Which, I gotta say, why not use less breakable glass? I hate when the challenge fails the contestant, which is what happened. I would've argued it so much. I wish nothing but the best for Kyle.
Kevin: Shaky situation, not doomed
It's a shaky situation since he's on such a bad tribe it seems, but he's in a good spot, and let's not forget, we've seen multiple winners emerge from bad tribes. Ricard almost did it, Yam-Yam did it, and Kenzie did it. Also, weird how they cut out medical looking at his shoulder, since it was in the promo for the season aired at the end of 47.
And to our departed player...
Stephanie: Drew the short straw
Talk about awful luck. Put on a terrible tribe. Each of the other tribes has a really buff dude. Kevin is fairly buff, but not that buff. Anyway, Steph just got really unlucky, and couldn't get her shot in the dark to hit. At least Mary stuck by her.
All right, first rankings of the season (after seeing at least one episode). The number in parentheses is how much they differ from my previous ranking of them, and in this case, that would be my pre-season ranking from my Survivor 48 Preview and Predictions post. Here is how I rank the remaining 17:
17. Mary (-9)
16. Charity (-9)
15. Sai (-1)
14. Star (-10)
12. Mitch (+1)
11. Justin (-6)
10. Kamilla (+1)
9. Bianca (+7)
8. David (+1)
7. Shauhin (+10)
6. Thomas (+12)
5. Kyle (-3)
4. Joe (+8)
3. Chrissy (0)
2. Eva (+8)
1. Kevin (0)
Biggest rise: Thomas (+12!) also Shauhin +10, Joe and Eva +8
Biggest fall: Star (-10), also Mary and Charity (-9)
Well, there's always going to be a ton of movement early, and this season is no exception. I am sticking with my winner pick for now, but I bet we'll get some really good content from someone else in the near future that'll make me pick a new #1. Crazy how the bottom 4 are women, but those are the four people most in danger of being voted out next episode.
AFTER EPISODE 2 FOUR WORD GAME
Side note: This is going to be a quicker one (less detailed) because I'm not a fan of how one tribe is getting decimated... plus my winner pick just got voted out early... again.
Mary: Still doomed, I'm sorry
On the worst tribe, they're almost for sure going to lose again after voting out Kevin.
Charity: Like Dee's big toes?
What is Survivor's weird fetish with feet? First Dee's big toes now Charity's weird foot? Hard to say. It's good to see she has a buddy in Mitch, but it's 2 against 4.
Sai: Female Rome this season
Chaotic, advantages, getting into arguments. She's a female Rome. That likely means she's not going very far. especially considering what tribe she's on.
Star: Had to include someone
On her beware advantage. But no one seems that inclined to help her. But she may have gained a little trust at least.
Cedrek: Low-key worst competitor
Cedrek sucks at challenges. He's bringing them down. Safe to say they do much better if they have Stephanie over him. But at least he has the Kevin move (which he didn't orchestrate).
Mitch: Incredibly wholesome likable dude
That's what Mitch is. He'll likely make the merge, but his likability will paint a target on his back.
Justin: Extremely risky move made
Turning on Kevin like that... sheesh. Now he has to hope they have a tribe swap or merge before he gets voted out, because they're likely not winning anything.
Kamilla: Brains behind her duo
Her and Kyle are quite the underrated duo, and Kamilla showed she's the brains.
Bianca: Not much content early
She has the fewest confessionals through two episodes with a total of 2, one each episode. Not great.
David: Play up goofball energy
Seriously. If he does, people won't take him seriously and he may slip by in this game.
Shauhin: Handled advantage situation well
Once Joe brought him in, I thought he handled it well, and he was wise to be suspicious of Thomas being sneaky.
Thomas: Evil side to him
Wanting Shauhin to lose the guide that would help Star find the idol. Not sure if that's allowed. But man, that shows Thomas is willing to do whatever it takes. I like that.
Kyle: Couldn't figure out puzzle?
He got the letters but needed Kamilla's help to solve the word puzzle? And this dude is a lawyer? It makes me think she's got much better chance to win than him.
Joe: Everyone goes to him
First Eva now Star. Shows Joe as being approachable, trustworthy, and likable. That's huge.
Chrissy: Not enough content yet
Like Bianca, Chrissy's getting not much. She had the whole deep belly button thing, but it was among Kyle's wart/callous and David's four nipples.
Eva: Needs connection to another
She has a good bond with Joe, but who else? She would be smart to warm up to Thomas, Bianca, or Shauhin and solidify their fivesome.
And to our departed player...
Kevin: Never run game early
Kevin thought that he was running the game early. Never think that. In fact, you can't even think that until like Final 6 or 5. Even if you're the only muscle on your tribe, your tribemates will turn on you. Shame.
New power rankings! Definitely going to be some shakeups. Can't believe my #1 got booted episode 2. Sigh. Well, here they are:
16. Sai (-1)
15. Mary (+2)
14. Cedrek (-1)
13. Justin (-2)
12. Star (+2)
11. Charity (+5)
10. Mitch (+2)
9. Chrissy (-6)
8. Bianca (+1)
7. Kyle (-2)
6. David (+2)
5. Thomas (+1)
4. Eva (-2)
3. Kamilla (+7)
2. Joe (+2)
1. Shauhin (+6)
Biggest rise: Kamilla (+7), also Shauhin (+6) and Charity (+5)
Biggest fall: Chrissy (-6)
Clearly had to choose a new #1, and it's Shauhin! I think he's the most insulated on his tribe. Well it's either him or Joe, and I think Joe may be more of a threat. Hard to say. I just really liked how Shauhin handled Star's advantage situation, and I liked how Joe felt the need to include him. Both males to have won in the New Era had big beards (Gabler and Yam-Yam), and Shauhin is no different. Kamilla rises for me as well, I think she's a dark horse and I'm liking her more. The entire Vula tribe is on the bottom for me, for obvious reasons. They literally could not have done worse in this game, outside of one thing. They've finished last in each tribe challenge, and Mary was the only one to lose on the journey. The only thing any of them ever won was when Kevin beat Kyle to get supplies, and even then, they only one because Kyle accidentally broke his jug. He likely wins if he doesn't. And the only guy that's ever won anything for them? They just voted him out.
AFTER EPISODE THREE FOUR WORD GAME
Sai: Still here, but dangerous
Sai scraped by again by the skin of her teeth. I don't think she's long for the game. She's too aggressive, and with the tribe swap looming, she's going to be on the outs regardless of where she goes. Her best case would be to be swapped with Cedrek (but not Mary) and be with at most, two from another tribe that aren't close.
Mary: SitD hit provides history
Mary played her SitD (Shot in the Dark) and it made history with that tribal council we had, with Cedrek basically having to decide who goes or he would've had to go. Mary is the third to hit on it, after Jaime-Lynn in 44 and Kaleb in 45. She is only the second, however, to negate majority votes with it.
Cedrek: Made his decision poorly
It wasn't which decision Cedrek made that was bad, it was how he made it. First he kept voting for Sai after Mary was safe. Clearly, Cedrek wanted one of the two of them gone and was tired of their antics. Fair enough. But after Sai's arguing and Justin's nonchalance, he decided to vote out Justin. He should've stuck to his guns, and if he was going to turn on Justin, he should've done it after Mary was safe from the SitD.
Star: Not part of bonfire?
I thought it was odd that she wasn't a part of the tribe's bonfire (the only one of Lagi to not be part of it), which seemed to be a bonding moment for the rest. Fortunately for Star, a tribe swap looms so she can maybe make friends elsewhere.
Charity: Bond strengthened with Mitch
Which is good to see. I think she and Mitch are the most underrated duo. I'm kinda rooting for them.
Mitch: Kept calm despite blindfold
All I can really say about Mitch is that he was the blindfolded player on Civa that did the puzzle, and he handled it well, especially once Lagi had finished and they were in danger of losing. Seems like Mitch maybe does well under pressure, despite the speech impediment.
Chrissy: First player skunked, unfortunately
It's not looking great. Chrissy had 0 confessionals, the first and so far only time a player got 0 in an episode this season. She was barely an afterthought in this episode, and the first episode she gets featured in prominently people are going to be wondering who she is.
Bianca: Lost vote, but chose
Sorry for the weird wording, it's the best I could come up with. Bianca lost her vote at the journey in a really dumb game of chance, but at least she chose to go. That's the risk you run in today's game of Survivor. Smart of her to only tell Thomas, as we see not telling your closest ally could bite you.
Kyle: Smaller male bonding moment
Kyle seemed to bond a bit with David over the fact that David lives in a trailer. I don't think what Kyle said about it was meant as a dig. I think he thought it was a choice for David to live in a trailer. Also, him and Mitch bonding was good to see too. Kyle may be the best positioned on Civa.
David: Basically a sob story
Remember the flashbacks we used to get for players, showing pictures from their past? Well what we got from David tonight was basically the same, just updated. It showed a different side of him, one a lot of us at home can relate to. I think that bodes well for David.
Thomas: Sneaky villian of season
Man, Thomas just wants to create chaos. He doesn't want another M/F duo on the tribe, so he might be targeting Eva at some point, but with the tribe swap, he might not be able to until the merge.
Eva: Stock falling since premiere
We'll see, but I'm not liking Eva's chances. She's the youngest out there, and she really has only bonded with Joe. She tried with Star, but to no avail. Tribe swap could help her make new friends.
Kamilla: Handled puzzle very well
Man, I want to be with Kamilla when it's chaotic and we need something done. She's this season's dark horse UTR player. But if someone realizes her intelligence, she could be in trouble.
Joe: Dominated that challenge early
Joe clearly was able to memorize the layout of the challenge and was able to basically carry Lagi to victory. That's all I have on him from this episode.
Shauhin: Laying low, using shields
Shauhin has both a meat shield in Joe and a social/strategic shield in Thomas. Dude is incredibly well-positioned. He might need a really solid #1, though.
And to our departed player...
Justin: Poor decisions, mediocre player
Not telling Cedrek about losing his vote was not great. Also, the lie he told was not very convincing. Then, he didn't fight for himself much at the deadlocked vote. All in all, he's not a great player in the New Era. I'll say this for him though: He got massively screwed over by being forced to go on that journey and forced to risk his vote.
New rankings! Although I can't say there's going to be too much shake-up since we only ever see the same tribe go to tribal. Maybe with one or two players.
15. Sai (+1)
14. Cedrek (0)
13. Mary (+2)
12. Chrissy (-3)
11. Star (+1)
10. Charity (+1)
9. Mitch (+1)
8. Eva (-4)
7. Bianca (+1)
6. Thomas (-1)
5. Kyle (+2)
4. Kamilla (-1)
3. David (+3)
2. Joe (0)
1. Shauhin (0)
Biggest rise: David (+3)
Biggest fall: Eva (-4)
Chrissy falls due to lack of content. I just can't ignore that. Eva falls due to almost being as low on the totem pole as Star, and I worry about her being separated from Joe with the tribe swap. David rises due to the emotional backstory. Crazy, I thought David had close to 0% chance of winning coming in. I don't think that anymore. Joe and Shauhin stay put.
AFTER EPISODE 4 FOUR WORD GAME
Sai: Should be mending fences
With Cedrek. Instead, she's gunning for him, with little to no friends in the game. And the promo doesn't bode well for her long-term game. She's definitely the Rome of the season.
Cedrek: Found new number one
In Mitch. Cedrek should be replacing Justin with Mitch, then come the merge Mitch brings in Charity. It's not much, but perhaps they can work to bring in another group. I liked what I saw from Cedrek this past episode.
Mary: Swapped to good spot
David and Charity want each other out and Star and Eva want each other out. Mary's in a good spot. This bodes well for her, and my rankings will have to reflect it.
Chrissy: No in depth content
Which is unfortunate. We don't get anything from Chrissy that's either personal or in-depth game strategy. Hopefully we will soon. All we know is he bond with David's group. Fortunately she got a couple confessionals this week, at least.
Star: No chance of winning
She joins Chrissy in being the second person with a 0 confessional episode. She also didn't have the most ideal swap, but at least she stayed on Liga beach to get more time to work the idol clue.
Charity: Possibly having terrible perception
She said David was controllable and wasn't going to win, when everything else this season points to the opposite. Not sure if we're supposed to think less of David or of Charity for not being perceptive enough.
Mitch: Nice bonding over stuttering
It was awesome to see Mitch and Cedrek bond over the shared history of stuttering, although clearly Mitch has it worse. But that's a duo I could see making a bit of an impact. We'll see.
Eva: Just survive to merge
Eva wasn't happy with her swap, and I can't say I blame her. But she warmed up to David and found a Joe 2.0 in him. She just has to survive until the merge to get back with Joe (and Shauhin). Perhaps they could form an alliance between David's group and the Lagi group. Either that, or they'll target each other, leaving Eva in the middle.
Bianca: In trouble, needs help
Bianca still doesn't have a vote and she was swapped to a bad spot. Cedrek and Mitch want to work together, and Mitch and Chrissy will work together, almost by default. That's already a majority, even if Bianca gets Sai.
Kyle: Great performance, good play
Kyle's idol play, his acting, his catching on to Kamilla's playing down their bond... all great. He did everything right. Thomas was the devious one and had to go.
Kamilla: Real brains behind operation
Yes, Kyle played the idol and everything, but we've seen Kamilla is the real brains behind their operation. It was her idea to play down their alliance. It was her that said to Kyle to play the idol (and her extra vote) for himself.
David: Long for this game
I think David's long for this game. Yes, he's physically imposing, but I think everyone will realize because of the types of Survivor challenges they have nowadays, he won't be an individual immunity threat. Plus, he has a foursome and now Eva (who could bring along Joe, Shauhin). He's set up pretty well.
Joe: Everyone likes him, apparently
No one ever throws his name out. But someone could realize post-merge how good of a game he's playing. It's hard to say. I think he'll recover from losing Shauhin, but he can't sit on his hands.
Shauhin: Too close for comfort
Thomas was the boot, but Shauhin was the next choice after Kyle and Kamilla debated between the two of them. It easily could've been Shauhin's name they wrote down. It shouldn't hurt Shauhin's chances too much, since a lot of New Era winners have been in trouble early (Rachel, Yam-Yam, Maryanne, Gabler).
And to our departed player...
Thomas: Another screwed over player
Swap-screwed? Not really. He was with two alliance members. But he was screwed in being swapped to someone with an idol, and being swapped to easily the worst beach with no flint. That really bothers me about the swap. The members of Lagi and Civa work so hard to get an advantage and the producers take it away from them. It's almost as if you should never build too big a lead in the pre-merge. I have a feeling we could see Thomas again. He has potential.
New power rankings! With the tribe swap, you KNOW there's going to be a shake up. Of course! Here's my new rankings:
14. Star (-3)
13. Sai (+2)
12. Bianca (-5)
11. Chrissy (+1)
10. Charity (0)
9. Mitch (0)
8. Cedrek (+6)
7. Eva (+1)
6. Mary (+7)
5. Kyle (0)
4. Shauhin (-3)
3. David (0)
2. Kamilla (+2)
1. Joe (+1)
Biggest rise: Mary (+7), also Cederk (+6)
Biggest fall: Bianca (-5)
Ok, so not everyone moved much, but five moved at least 3 spots. With three men gone in a row, surely a woman goes next, right? My bottom 5 are all women 💀. I was so tempted to put Kamilla at one, but Joe barely beats her out. I really hope that tribe doesn't have to go to tribal again next episode.
AFTER EPISODE 5 FOUR WORD GAME
Star: Giving idol smart move
It actually was. Having a publicly known idol is usually more of a curse than a blessing, and with how many people knew, everyone was bound to know eventually. Plus, this built a bridge between her and Eva and shifted the target over to her. Star will be able to get by now without a target.
Sai: Cat with nine lives
She really is. She should have gone home not once, but twice now. And she really has that one journey to thank that caused Justin and Bianca to lose votes. If not for that, Sai is long gone from this game. I have a feeling she won't be long for this game in the merge--I feel she has too much of a Rome-style edit/game to get far.
Chrissy: Smart? Time will tell.
Was it smart of Chrissy to switch her vote from Sai to Bianca? Time will tell. I think she wanted to weaken the original Lagi tribe further, which now puts them at 4 members. However, 6 original Civa members remain, which might put a target on one of their backs.
Charity: A possible upcoming target
As mentioned above, original Civa could be a target since we know the merge/mergatory is about to happen, and Charity would be one of the likelier of them to go. Eva's comment about thinking she's fake I think was thrown in for a reason.
Mitch: Left out first vote
Perhaps there wasn't enough time, but Mitch was left as the only one voting for Sai. He and Chrissy weren't the closest of allies, so we'll see what happens in the merge. I have a feeling he'll be the eventual target.
Cedrek: No rhyme or reason
Does Cedrek want people to tell them they lost their vote or not? Lol. There almost doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to his game. The way he's playing, I can't see him swaying a jury and convincing them he's a good player. I just can't. I also think Sai will gun for him at some point, so he's got to get her out before she gets him.
Eva: Moment bigger than game
Sometimes something happens in Survivor that's bigger than the game. Where the game doesn't matter as much. Eva's breakdown and Joe going to calm her was one of those moments.
Mary: Supportive, likable, in shadows
Kind of a quiet episode for Mary, but we saw her supporting Eva during the challenge. My biggest concern for Mary in the merge is Sai, but if she survives Hurricane Sai, she's golden. She's not a threat, she's likable. Could go far.
Kyle: Connected with Lagi men
That was awesome to see Kyle and Kamilla bond over their parents' histories with Joe and Shauhin. Not much else for Kyle, but hopefully that's an "in" for them. Kyle also will have to be willing to ditch David and Chrissy, if necessary.
Shauhin: Emotional backstory, here awhile
I think Teeny was the only one to get an emotional backstory last season (one that has a picture outside of the game), and Teeny made it to the finale. I think Shauhin is making the finale as well. Will he win? Possibly, but there's a lot of competition this season, which I love.
David: Dude loves his milk
It was funny to see that from David, and I think it's a running joke/trend this season. Outside of that, though, David will have to lower his threat level come the merge. And hope to get Kyle and Kamilla back. They could form a super majority (Lagi 3/4 [if Star joins] and Civa 4).
Kamilla: Still a potential frontrunner
Quiet episode, but not one that dooms Kamilla's chances by any means. I still think she's one of the smartest people in the game. It'll be interesting to see if anyone points it out.
Joe: Willing to sacrifice game
Clearly, Joe would rather sacrifice his game than do anything to not help or hurt Eva and her game. The show has now shown us this twice. Joe is going to have some work to do to help lower Eva's threat level. Also, crazily enough, but Joe joins Chrissy and Star as the people who have been "skunked" this season so far (Getting 0 confessionals in an episode). That doesn't particularly bode well for him.
And to our departed player...
Bianca: Another luck screwed player
I'm going to keep saying it. If a player loses their vote LITERALLY due to chance, and that is a direct result in them being voted out, that is so unfair and they did not deserve to go. Oddly, I think Justin and Bianca should each have done the opposite. Justin, who had built bonds with Cedrek, should have told him, while Bianca, who hadn't quite built bonds with him, shouldn't have. It's all about situational awareness. And Bianca seemingly chose to go on that journey as her tribe got to choose who went, and it seemed she volunteered.
New power rankings! Gotta shake things up, right? Too much happening. Merge is about to happen. Crazy stuff. Here they are, the final pre-merge rankings:
13. Sai (0)
12. Charity (-2)
11. Cedrek (-3)
10. Star (+4)
9. Mitch (0)
8. Chrissy (+3)
7. Kyle (-2)
6. Joe (-5)
5. Eva (+2)
4. David (-1)
3. Mary (+3)
2. Kamilla (0)
1. Shauhin (+3)
Biggest rise: Star (+4), also Chrissy, Mary, and Shauhin (+3)
Biggest fall: Joe (-5)
Star rises due to lowering her threat level and likely won't be an immediate merge target. I had to move Eva in front of Joe. Joe is very likely going to lay down his game for Eva, so my rankings had to reflect that. Mary moves up a bit; I think she's this season's dark horse. Shauhin returns to the #1 spot thanks to his emotional backstory. It's literally anyone's game, and I think anyone 7-1 could win it. We will see.
AFTER EPISODE 6 FOUR WORD GAME
Sai: Going for the record
Sai seems to be going for the record of most votes against one player in one season. I believe that belongs to Karishma (of Season 39, Island of the Idols) with 22. She keeps on skating by. Problem is, no one is going to respect her game at the end, even if she makes it to the end. Also, her being out of the loop and being the only one to vote for Cedrek is so on point.
Cedrek: Game similar to Romeo
From 42. Eventful pre-merge, but I think post-merge Cedrek is going to fade into the background and go along with the majority. He may even get to or near the end when the threats realize they have bigger fish to fry. But like Romeo, he's got no shot of winning.
Star: Rising "star" this season
I couldn't resist. Star is on the rise, at least as a character. Shame she couldn't be shown much earlier. Unless she makes a big move or two, I can't see her winning.
Mitch: Lost in this game
We went from seeing Mitch dismayed that he was left out of the vote to Mitch losing his #1. He clearly has no footing in the game. Poor guy. He'll be a heartbreaking boot, whenever that is.
Chrissy: Another older woman afterthought
Is Survivor capable of casting an older woman and showing her at least as much as half the cast? No? That would just make me not want to apply for the show if I was an older woman.
Kyle: Surprising amount of connections
We know he has Kamilla as his #1, but we also know he's tight with David and Chrissy, his old Vula (post-swap) tribemates in Joe and Shauhin, and now we see Eva as well with him. He's very well-positioned and just won immunity. Hard to tell what his target level is, but next week should be telling.
Joe: Will be on jury
Calling it now. He won't go next week (last spot before jury) and he won't make the F3. Joe I think will go before Eva, leaving her without him. He will be (like Mitch) a very heartbreaking boot.
Eva: Threat level too high
An idol does more harm than good when everyone knows about it. Eva might as well play it, or perhaps give it to someone she wants to build trust with.
David: Milk jokes aren't sour
Yet, at least. I love how much they are running this joke into the ground. He, like Kyle, is also well-positioned, and I like how he wants to have a group of old-school-style players together. We'll have to see if that works.
Mary: Merge episode too quiet
I feel like the winner usually gets a decent amount of content when the tribes come together, but Mary didn't seem to get too much. She's perhaps the darkest of dark horses to win, but she has a shot. Certainly better than her old Vula tribemates Cedrek and Sai.
Kamilla: Still in hidden duo
Crazy how much the show keeps reminding us. It must be a factor late in this game. We know she's smart, and we know Kyle will protect her and not turn on her.
Shauhin: High variance post merge
What I mean is I think Shauhin could be one of the first few jurors or he could be a finalist. He could be a casualty of the power alliance (since he'd be an unlikely target), or he could be one of the last Survivors for not being one of the bigger threats. Time will tell.
And to our departed player...
Charity: Rubbed people wrong way
Somehow, she just did. Made them not like working with her, and there weren't enough people that wanted to save her. She got a weird edit, since there didn't seem to be too much explanation as to why she was basically ostracized from the majority. I have a feeling they cut things out from some episodes which would explain it, but they didn't want them to air, for whatever reason.
New power rankings! I'm gonna shake things up. For real this time. Or so I think. Perhaps just for one week, but I'm starting to kind of get a vibe on this season.
12. Sai (+1)
11. Mitch (-2)
10. Cedrek (+1)
9. Chrissy (-1)
8. Mary (-5)
7. Eva (-2)
6. Star (+4)
5. Joe (+1)
4. David (0)
3. Shauhin (-2)
2. Kyle (+5)
1. Kamilla (+1)
Biggest rise: Kyle (+5), Also Star (+4)
Biggest fall: Mary (-5)
The bottom 4 have virtually zero chance of winning. (Sorry Mitch). The next three (Mary, Eva, Star) are enigmas that would need a really good post-merge to win. The top 5 are my frontrunners. Kyle rises; he had a fantastic merge episode. But I can't put him #1 as he may have put his threat level a bit too high. Kamilla is my new #1. First, I think people are more inclined in the New Era to vote for a woman. And two, she's so smart. I could see it. She might just be #1 for me for one week, but I had to. At least for now.
AFTER EPISODE SEVERAL FOUR WORD GAME
Mitch: The ultimate underdog story?
Now while Mitch survived the last vote he went to, he is still on the outs. He's definitely a long shot to even get far in the game. But he would be the ultimate underdog story. Perhaps he gets forgotten about? That's the best he can hope for..
Chrissy: Don't say wrong thing
Chrissy may have said a bit too much at the last tribal council, showing she might be more aggressive than she appears. That could lead to others targeting her. She has a slim connection to David, but that's about it. Best she can hope for is to be a losing finalist. She can try to be aggressive, but that'll likely lead to her being voted out before the end.
Mary: Heading towards finale goat?
Mary just had a zero confessional episode, joining Chrissy, Star, and Joe. She's had a very quiet post-merge so far. She seems to be content with blending in, which could lead to others forgetting about her and Mary making it to the end.
Eva: Timing huge for idol
When Eva plays her idol (if she does) will likely have a huge impact on her game. She wasn't even a possible target in the last vote, likely due to Star and Joe being with her. But now.... she better watch out.
Star: Going for million... how?
Star reiterated she was there to go for the million dollars, but my question is how is she going to do that? What's her game plan? We don't see it. We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.
Joe: Best positioned player currently
Still a bit skeptical about Joe's winning chances, but he is the best-positioned player in the game. He's got David as a meat shield, Eva as a strategy shield, and Shauhin as someone who is being targeted before him. Joe's not going anytime soon, I think. He just better hope Eva can hold onto her idol and he doesn't have to play a hero for her.
David: Being played by others
We saw Kamilla lie to David about Shauhin having an idol, and I think we're starting to see David played by others in the game. That hurts his winning chances, and David will have to figure out the truth in order to do well in the game.
Shauhin: Target level high now
I'm worried for Shauhin and his target level. His name is out there, and in today's game of Survivor, that's a tough thing to shed. Joe and Eva won't vote him (and probably not David), but that's it. He needs to ensure others are with him (Mary, Mitch, Chrissy, Star, etc.)
Kyle: Jack of all trades
I think Kyle is the jack of all trades in this game. Good at everything, but master of none. So what does that mean? Well, he could win. But people might see him as a good all-around player, the kind of player that wins a lot in the new era.
Kamilla: Mischievousness will determine game
Kamilla is definitely being conniving and mischievous, which is what you have to do in Survivor. But in this season, it will make or break it. If the strong men alliance realize this and get a coalition together, she could be in trouble.
And to our departed players...
Sai: Attitude not for Survivor
Sai doesn't have a particularly bad one, but she tends to rub people the wrong way. That is enough for her to constantly be on the outs and then ultimately be voted out.
Cedrek: Physically not for Survivor
I hate to basically copy what I said above, but it fits here. The same could be said for mentally, too. But physically, you could see in challenges that Cedrek just wasn't cut out for Survivor. Maybe the Traitors?
New power rankings time! Top 10... should be interesting. Not sure how much people will move, but some definitely will.
10. Mitch (+1)
9. Chrissy (0)
8. Mary (0)
7. Star (-1)
6. Shauhin (-3)
5. Eva (+2)
4. David (0)
3. Kyle (-1)
2. Joe (+3)
1. Kamilla (0)
Biggest rise: Joe (+3)
Biggest fall: Shauhin (-3)
My bottom 3 were obvious. Star falls a bit to join the bottom 4. Shauhin falls for now having a target on himself, but I'm not sure he's one of the next to go, so we'll see. Joe rises because he continues to play a solid, fairly quiet game. Although I wish he was more open to talk to people like Sai. And Kamilla remains my number 1. At least until her name starts getting thrown out there. I feel like she could strategize circles around the men in the game. She just needs numbers.
AFTER EPISODE 8 FOUR WORD GAME
Mitch: Not a target anymore?
I guess he's not. It's almost as if he and Star are afterthoughts. Their pairing wasn't even shown before the challenge. Or, they could be setting him up to go soon.
Mary: Controlling David like puppet
She's worked her way into the Strong 5 (now 6) alliance, and she was able to at least get him to try to go Kamilla. Unfortuantely for them, the group decided against it. If Mary can continue to work her magic, she can be a dark horse winner pick again...
Star: Afterthought; it's a shame
Star has a funny and entertaining personality but the show only gives us snippets of it. Almost as if they don't want us to get too attached to her. Clearly, the editors don't want us to get too close to people who get blindsided or are a 0 vote finalist... so it's one of those for Star.
Shauhin: Name keeps coming up
Granted it was just Chrissy this time around, but it does. I feel like Shauhin's in a bit of no-man's land right now. He shouldn't have tried to work with Kamilla. I could see Shauhin as a losing (but not zero vote) finalist.
Eva: Favoritism from the show?
They do the hanging onto a pole challenge, but they ensure that only three others could potentially be there with Eva. Then, they put a clue to an advantage in a chip bowl that was closest to Eva's assigned spot. Just very interesting... Now she'll be able to get a (likely) very helpful advantage in the next episode.
David: Falling from grace hard
Not only is David making himself a bigger target as time goes on, but he's making jury members more likely to not vote for him. If he were to get to the end, he's not getting Cedrek or Chrissy's vote. He'd probably only get a vote from Joe or Eva at this point. David needs to work hard to fix his game, but I fear it might be too late.
Kyle: Somehow cover wasn't blown
His and Kamilla's bond still isn't known. Kyle being that adamant that they don't vote Kamilla should've made Joe and David want to vote for her more. All they needed to do was rope in Chrissy and Mitch and say hey it's one of you or Kamilla. Kyle should've played it more cool and insisted Kamilla wasn't a threat.
Joe: Remained cool under fire
It's funny because he's a fireman. Haha. Anyway, Joe heard his name from Chrissy (via Kyle) and remained calm. I think that'll bode well for him. Unfortunately Chrissy exposed his threat level, but it doesn't appear Joe's three closest allies (David, Eva, and Shauhin) are willing to turn on him. Throw in Mary through her connection to David and Joe should be safe, unless some crazy shenanigans happen.
Kamilla: Built for this game
She was surprised but remained calm when she heard about David and Mary wanting to gun for her. It was Kyle losing it, not her. I don't know if I can keep her as my #1 because her name has legitimately come up, and if Mitch and Star side with the Strong 5/6, she's toast. However, I like her chances due to her ability to work people and the fact Kyle seems to be willing to do anything to save her.
And to our departed player...
Chrissy: Too aggressive too early
Sometimes in the game of Survivor you do need to sit on your hands. Chrissy should've done that until Final 6 or so, then gotten 2 or 3 people to target the biggest threat. She didn't have any numbers and her speaking out cost her.
New power rankings! I've gone from thinking 5 people could win to thinking most can't. So I don't know how I'm going to do this. Oh well, here goes nothing!
9. Star (-2)
8. Mitch (+2)
7. David (-3)
5. Shauhin (+1)
4. Kyle (-1)
3. Kamilla (-2)
2. Eva (+3)
1. Joe (+1)
Biggest rise: Eva (+3), also Mitch and Mary (+2)
Biggest fall: David (-3), also Star and Kamilla (-2)
Star and Mitch seem to be afterthoughts at this point, so if they go with another easy vote next week, it'll be one of them, which is why they're at the bottom. Mitch seems to have an in with Kamilla, which is why I have Star lower, whose "in" (with Eva) doesn't seem to be very strong. David falls, as I feel he could be a target that Joe decides he can no longer try to save. Eva rises, she's well-insulated now and as I've said many times, she's got Joe for a literal shield. Joe goes back to being my #1. Almost everyone's name has been thrown out at this point, and most winners have their name thrown out or are in danger at some point in their seasons. Joe seems to remain calm in any situation, so I have him at #1. He got his biggest detractor in Chrissy out.
AFTER EPISODE 9 FOUR WORD GAME
Star: Only getting character content
Ok maybe not only, but mostly. Her learning to swim content was nice, but it's definitely something we don't get with a 60-minute episode. We did see her strategizing with others (I can't remember who), but she was left out of the vote and it doesn't appear she has any standing in the game.
Mitch: Next week absolutely huge
If Mitch and the stragglers take out Joe, Eva, or someone big, that will be huge for Mitch's game. If not and someone like Star (or of course if he goes), then I don't see Mitch having a shot. I'm feeling better about Mitch's chances, but next week will make or break them.
Mary: Left out and forgotten
Not only was Mary left out of the vote (obviously, considering how close she was to David), but she got zero confessionals. All-around terrible episode for her. But it's not over. But she has a lot of work to do.
Shauhin: Winner or final boss
I'd bet a lot of money Shauhin is either the winner or final boss this season (which technically could be he loses at FTC a la Russell Hantz). His planting of seeds in people's minds about David was reminiscent of the content we got from Jesse in 43. He had to take David out, but he has to be careful to not jettison Joe and Eva too early or in a bad manner.
Kyle: Learning about his story
When the swapped Vula got all their personal content, there was one person missing from notable content, and that was Kyle. Well, he seemed to get it this episode. Maybe they saved it until now so we would remember it better, because perhaps they want us to root for Kyle. Could be...
Kamilla: Too invisible post merge
Now she's not invisible like Star where you wonder where she is sometimes (Eh... kind of), and she's not getting 0 confessional episodes like Mary, but Kamilla to me is too invisible post-merge to be a legit winner contender. I've gone back and forth on Kamilla's chances, but right now I'm not so sure. I don't see her getting David's vote.
Eva: Loaded, but losing ground
Eva now has an idol and a Safety without Power, but to me, she's losing footing in the game. I don't see her winning a jury vote unless the other two against her suck. However, if she can play her advantages correctly and not have to be saved by Joe, she has a chance. But a lot needs to go right at this point.
Joe: Needed to keep David
David was a shield (as much as he'd hate to admit) and David was not going to beat Joe at the end. There was no game reason to vote out David. Joe just didn't like how David slipped up and said Joe went back on his word. You have to be real careful with what you say in the game, and saying one wrong thing can cost you.
And to our departed player...
David: Paranoia got to him
It happens to a lot of booted players. If he played the post-merge like he did the pre-merge, he would've been a legitimate winner contender. He was very calm and collected pre-merge, but not post-merge. Granted, I don't think he went to tribal pre-merge, so perhaps if he had, that would've prepared him for the post-merge. Oh well.
New power rankings! Top 8. Over half the players gone. There's another shake up for me, as we see the power start to shift in the game. This might surprise...
8. Mary (-2)
7. Star (+2)
6. Mitch (+2)
5. Joe (-4)
4. Eva (-2)
3. Kamilla (0)
2. Kyle (+2)
1. Shauhin (+4)
Biggest rise: Shauhin (+4)
Biggest fall: Joe (-4)
The bottom 3 are my non-contenders. Two of them could be finale goats, although Mitch has a shot with a bitter jury. Joe and Eva fall; I really feel like they needed to keep David and get his paranoia down. Kamilla and Kyle's duo not only remains hidden but they get rid of their biggest threat to expose them. And then Shauhin... gotten great content along the way, except for Episode 4, where he looked bad for going through Kyle's bag and not knowing Kyle had an idol. But other than that... he's had a fantastic edit and he's in a great spot.
AFTER EPISODE 10 FOUR WORD GAME
Mary: FTC loser at best
Mary's game has completely sunk, and now the best thing she can hope for is the strong 4 to turn on each other. Unlikely with Joe at the helm. Mary's either the next target or she'll be used as a number for a round or two.
Mitch: Another with zero shot
Mitch is playing to get as far as he can but not win. He should've gotten over the fact that Star and Mary wrote his name down. But he couldn't. Now, he might be in huge trouble. He has a connection to Kamilla, but she can only do so much.
Joe: Immunity saved his butt
Not saying Joe goes home THIS particular round if he doesn't win immunity, but perhaps he loses an ally in Kyle or Shauhin and goes home after. But his immunity was almost treated like a blanket immunity for his entire alliance, and not one of them got a single vote. Joe's pathway went from murky to clear in one episode.
Eva: Not even a mention?
Of being a target, that is. Everyone knows about her idol and advantage, and now, her Safety without Power HAS to be used at Final 7 otherwise it goes unused. With numbers still a bit tight, it actually might be smart not to use it. But it's still surprising how no group has formed to try to flush her idol.
Kamilla: Game agency falling fast
Where is it? She can argue she's been controlling Kyle, but that won't be enough to win, even if the jury believes it. She'll need to get Joe AND Shauhin out somehow if she wants a chance. She may be able to beat Eva and Kyle. But she's got to act quickly or she's a sitting duck.
Kyle: If not now, when?
Kyle seemed hesitant to want to turn on Joe because of the personal things they've shared. But if not then, when? Is he wanting to hand Joe the million dollars? Does he think he can beat him at fire? I'm not sure when Kyle thinks he can take out or beat Joe. I don't think he can beat him at the end. Maybe he's under the delusion that he can.
Shauhin: Coasting or big move?
Shauhin will have a huge decision to make, perhaps around Final 6 or 5. He can coast with Joe and Eva and Kyle, or he can turn on Joe and Eva and try to make a big move. Whatever he decides will make or break his game.
And to our departed player...
Star: Mediocre player, but entertaining
Star kept going on and on about wanting to play hard for the million, but I never really saw much of that. It just didn't materialize for us. But she was certainly entertaining. I wouldn't be opposed to seeing her return.
New power rankings! Final Several. There's a distinct separation this season between the haves and have-nots, but how do they rank?
7. Mary (+1)
6. Mitch (0)
5. Kamilla (-2)
4. Eva (0)
3. Kyle (-1)
2. Joe (+3)
1. Shauhin (0)
Biggest rise: Joe (+3)
Biggest fall: Kamilla (-2)
The strong 4 capture the top 4 of my rankings, unsurprisingly, as each of them can essentially coast to the final 4 if they want to. Kamilla falls due to her lack of game agency. Joe doesn't quite regain the top spot, as I still feel a little better about Shauhin at this point, but that could change next week.
AFTER EPISODE 11 FOUR WORD GAME
Mitch: Just along for ride
I guess? Didn't seem to get too much Mitch gameplay content this past episode. I don't understand his gameplan. If this show continues as it's headed, Mitch is gone next week, and he should've done something at Final 8 or 7.
Kamilla: Hiding duo, reveal when?
I know Kyle and Kamilla are hiding their alliance, but at what point do they make a move? At what point do they reveal how close they've been? Good for Kamilla to win immunity, but she did nothing with it.
Eva: Keeps getting all breaks
Gets the purple rock to go on the journey, gets an easy enough challenge to not lose her vote, gets to go on reward (again). Either the show is trying to set her up for a downfall or they are incorrect in their assumption that Eva's edit would make everyone want her to win.
Kyle: Stop delaying decision, bro
Kyle is so hesitant and putting off deciding between the "Four" and Kamilla. He's procrastinating it as much as possible. How'd this guy get through law school, anyway?
Joe: Hand him million now
Might as well, right? Even when he's safe, they don't take a shot at him despite them knowing he's the biggest threat to win. It'd be like if the casts of 30 and 35 didn't take a shot at Mike and Ben, respectively, when they had a chance.
Shauhin: Has to turn too
Shauhin can't just coast to the end with Joe and Eva and expect to win. He'll need to turn on them as well. Next week would be prime opportunity if decides to join up with Kamilla, Kyle, and Mitch.
And to our departed player..
Mary: Tried to cause chaos
I give Mary credit, she tried to cause chaos on her way out. But her fate was long decided when she didn't win immunity. Even with Joe not winning, they still decided not to make a move on him. Mary would make for an interesting returning player if that ever happens.
New power rankings! I've basically lost hope that they're going to turn on Joe and Eva, BUT, if it happens... well, we'd just have to see. But anyway, not much movement this week, but here they are:
6. Mitch (0)
5. Kamilla (0)
4. Eva (0)
3. Shauhin (-2)
2. Kyle (+1)
1. Joe (+1)
Not going to over biggest rise and fall since those are obvious. Mitch is now a sitting duck, although they might decide to go after Kamilla, instead, unless Kyle can stave off going for her again. Shauhin falls for me because I didn't like what I saw from him this episode. He talked about potentially turning on Joe, saying "This is Survivor", and he just sits on his hands. Kyle moves up, however. I think if he turns on Joe... he's the new frontrunner. Sure he may lose respect of Joe and Eva, but he'd gain respect of everyone else on the jury. Joe is the new number one, because even when he's vulnerable, the rest refuse to vote him out.
AFTER EPISODE 12 FOUR WORD GAME
Mitch: The presumptive finale goat
He has to be at this point, right? With Shauhin gone, he was the glue seemingly holding the two sides together. Now... he's a swing vote at Final 5. That's if Kyle sticks with Kamilla. I think at this point, everyone has bigger fish to fry than Mitch.
Kamilla: Dark horse winner candidate
I'm still not counting Kamilla out. She's got a chance. She needs to get out Joe and establish herself as the dominant one between her and Kyle. Not impossible. She easily wins a Final 3 of her, Eva, and Mitch. She definitely could pull it out. Her going along with the "frame Shauhin" was very well done, I might add.
Eva: Only a Joe stan
I don't think Eva could win over a jury, but she could pull a vote or two to Joe, EVEN if she's in the Final 3 with him. She has yet to distinguish herself from him. She's likely one of the final jurors and a Joe stan on the jury.
Kyle: One big obstacle left
And his name is Joe. Shauhin was an obstacle for Kyle, and if Shauhin is at the end with Kyle with say Mitch, Shauhin possibly wins. Now Kyle just needs to get rid of Joe. He still seems to possibly be under the assumption he can beat him. Maybe he can. But it'd be easier to win at the end if he gets out Joe before then.
Joe: Setting up something big
Tonight's episode is either setting up Joe's dominant win or his fall. He clearly has been the driving force and the main character this season. But the main character doesn't always win. See Russell in Samoa/HvV, Rob in All Stars, and Jesse in 43. He'll either join those as one of the better to never win, or he'll join the ranks of the more dominant winners. Time will tell.
And to our departed player...
Shauhin: Overconfidence remains a killer
In the game of Survivor. We saw the last few weeks how confident Shauhin was of getting far with Joe and Eva. All that needed to happen was have Kyle float a lie about him to Joe and that was it. And unfortunately, without Joe confronting him directly about it, Shauhin didn't really have a way of defending himself. I'd definitely want to see Shauhin on a retuning player season.
Since next week is the finale, and before I rank the remaining players, I'm going to do the thing I do for every season and rank the remaining players on how much I think the jury likes them. 5 points for 1st, 4 points for 2nd, and so on. I could be dead wrong about these, and I know I have been about some in the past, but it's still fun to run through.
Cedrek: Kyle, Joe, Mitch, Kamilla, Eva
Chrissy: Kamilla, Mitch, Joe, Kyle, Eva
David: Kyle, Kamilla, Mitch, Eva, Joe
Star: Joe, Kyle, Kamilla, Eva, Mitch
Mary: Kamilla, Joe, Kyle, Eva, Mitch
Shauhin: Joe, Eva, Kamilla, Kyle, Mitch
That would leave the points at...
Kyle: 22
Joe: 22
Kamilla: 22
Mitch: 13
Eva: 12
Wow, I certainly didn't plan a THREE WAY TIE. Clearly, we're going to have to rank them based on what each remaining player thinks of the rest. Since there are only 4 players that could vote on each player, the points would go 4 for 1st, 3 for 2nd, and so on.
Eva: Joe, Kyle, Mitch, Kamilla
Mitch: Joe, Kyle, Kamilla, Eva
Kamilla: Kyle, Joe, Mitch, Eva
Joe: Eva, Kyle, Kamilla, Mitch
Kyle: Kamilla, Joe, Eva, Mitch
Updated points:
Joe: 36
Kyle: 35
Kamilla: 31
Eva: 20
Mitch: 19
Wow, still VERY close. But obviously, we're very likely not going to have a final 3 of Joe, Kyle, and Kamilla, That'd be insane, though. But if Kyle and Kamilla are both there against Joe, neither is on the jury to help the other, so Joe would likely take it, especially considering Eva would be on the jury. If Eva sits next to Joe and Kyle or Kamilla are there, I could see Kyle or Kamilla winning. I think it could be close, depending on the Final 3. So with that, my final power rankings:
5. Mitch (+1)
4. Eva (0)
3. Kamilla (+2)
2. Kyle (0)
1. Joe (0)
Nearly everyone I've seen online seems to be on the whole "Joe is winning" train, and I'm one of them. He has to be dethroned, and he has one ally in Eva who will NOT turn on him, and one ally in Kyle who has had opportunities to vote him out but hasn't. We will have to see. Should be fun!
AFTER THE FINALE FOUR WORD GAME
This'll be in the order they finished, btw.
Mitch: Needed an earlier move
Mitch just did not put himself in a good position for the finale. He had no close allies, no majority, really no one he could count on. He needed to make a move earlier on Joe when Mary and Star were still in the game.
Kamilla: That close to winning
Kamilla was surprisingly good at arguing and public speaking, so if she got to the end (instead of Kyle), she definitely would've won. Crazy. Fire-making just didn't go her way. She needed fire-making to have a chance, because without it, they all vote her out.
Joe: Didn't do quite enough
In the game and at final tribal council. First, he needed something to wow the jury with, like Kyle did with his alliance with Kamilla and the move they made to get out Shauhin and fool Joe. But Joe still could've perhaps won with a decent FTC performance, which he apparently did not have. He was the presumptive favorite coming into the finale, but he couldn't put it all together.
Eva: Almost pulled it out
I give Eva credit, she went from my firemaking loser to runner-up. She gave a good final tribal council performance, enough for her to garner second place. But I will say, without Joe to comfort her and help her practice fire-making, does she still win? Perhaps, with how much Kamilla struggled.
Kyle: Game improve over time
I think Kyle's game, while it seems good now, will only improve over time as people reflect on it. He successfully played two sides, essentially. He didn't make any enemies. He made close bonds. His move with Kamilla to get out Shauhin will go down as one of the better New Era moves. Kyle is definitely an above-average winner.
Well, that's it! Congratulations to Kyle! Well deserved. He or Kamilla played the best game, and he won immunity when it mattered. I did have him ranked 2nd on my pre-season rankings, so at least there's that. Well, see y'all for 49!