It Hurts

To be one game away from our first World Series appearance... it hurts.  We had not one but two shots at clinching our first ever pennant, and we blew it both times.  We had a chance to even clinch on our home field, if we could just win 2 of 3 at home, but we couldn't.  As a lifelong Mariners fan, you wonder if it will ever truly be your year, your time to shine, and your chance for happiness.  The Mariners have now played 49 seasons.  At most, they've played with 14 other American League teams, so the law of averages would state they would be the final AL team about 3 times so far in their history.  Nope.  Not even once.  The Mariners have now been one step shy of the World Series four times, and all four times have failed.  I think I can begin to relate to how Buffalo Bills fans feel, how they were one step short of a Super Bowl win four times and failed all four times.  It doesn't seem remotely likely, yet it happened.  

I have to remember that after barely missing the playoffs the last two seasons, expectations were tempered for 2025.  Heck, even heading into September this year, the Mariners were at best expected to be a wild card.  But they went out and won the division for the first time in 24 years.  That was one milestone this team was long overdue to accomplish.  And, when they weren't expected to, they went out and did it.  

Now comes a crossroads for this team.  Will they continue to try to improve and take a step forward, or will they take a step back?  This may be the most important offseason in Mariners history.  Expectations are likely going to be high for this team in 2026.  Anything short of back-to-back division titles will likely be a disappointment.  

I think one of the most crucial factors that will determine this team's success next season, and their overall long-term success, is how they handle this heartbreak mentally.  Will they let it haunt them, or will they use it as motivation?  Cal Raleigh is now this team's vocal leader, so he'll need to lead by example, which he has so far done as a big league catcher.  In my mind, he's the MVP for that reason.  

But we have to continue to temper our expectations for the next season.  We expect too much, and disappointment becomes ever more likely.  I want to say this team will continue where they left off in 2025, but we have seen collapses before.  After the Seahawks lost Super Bowl XLIX, they could not handle it all too well, and they struggled out of the gate the following season and still to this day have not even returned to the NFC Championship game.  

But we can also be optimistic.  But I would advise caution.  This is a team that would rank near the bottom in MLB in terms of success vs. the age of the franchise.  They play their 50th season in 2026, and the question is, will it be a memorable one?  I would wager to say yes.  But will it be memorable for the right reasons?  That remains to be seen.  

Survivor 49 FOUR WORD GAME

Survivor 49 has had its premiere, and I think we're in for another good season.  Like past seasons, I'm going to give each player remaining in the game (and the booted player) four words to describe the current state of their game, what they need to do, what I noticed, and anything that might stand out about them to me.  I'll then elaborate a tiny bit on that, especially only a little early on, considering I have a lot of players to get through.  

As always, I'll be starting with my lowest-ranked player, then going sequentially to my highest-ranked player.  This first week is based on my pre-season rankings from my other Survivor 49 post.  Let's go!

EPISODE 1 FOUR WORD GAME

Matt: WAY off on him
I don't know why I thought he'd be an even kookier Gabler, but I did.  But no, Matt seems to be very well-prepared for Survivor, at least physically.  His biggest obstacle will be connecting with players 20+ years younger than him.  But he seems grounded and 

Steven: Tribe gushing over him
Another I think I may have been way off on is Steven.  His whole tribe seemed to gush over him: Matt, Jason, and MC.  That is HUGE.  I can no longer see him as a pre-merge boot.  He may have a long run in him.  We shall see.

Shannon: Connecting better than expected
Shannon seemed to form a duo with Savannah.  And you know what, that's EXACTLY what I thought would happen when first seeing the tribe divisions.  But I allowed other people's predictions for her to infiltrate my mind.  I gotta go with my gut more.

Nate: Call him Papa Cool
At least, that's what I would if I was on his tribe, even though Nate is less than 6 years older than me... sigh.  He seemed to immerse himself well on his tribe, connecting with Savannah.  

Sage: Too weird for Survivor
She's mentioned collecting pimples (pre-season interview), peeing off the boat and showing her butt, and that she likes poop.  There is no way she will be taken seriously if she gets to the final tribal.  I did like how she connected with Shannon, but I get this feeling Shannon would turn on her if she had to.

Jason: This season's puzzle master
We've had some puzzle masters in the New Era (Evie, Carson, Kamilla), and I think Jason could join their ranks.  He dominated the cube puzzle in the first challenge.  

Kristina: Cirie style of edit?
Cirie's first ever episode of Survivor showed her afraid of bugs and leaves and how she's a couch potato.  VERY similar of edit and story for Kristina.  I 100% believe they are trying to recreate a New Era Cirie.  Whether or not they are successful, I'm not sure.  I'm surprised we didn't see an instant connection between her and MC, but perhaps their personalities are too different.

Alex: Set up to fail
Not just in the one-on-one challenge against Rizo, but the edit is setting him up to be blindsided.  At least that's how it feels to me.  But in the challenge, man, how could he have 15 extra minutes of digging and not find the shipwheel before Rizo?  I like his connection to Jake, and he tried to make one with Annie before she threw his name out.  

MC: Physically perfect for Survivor
She seems in great shape.  I don't think we got much of her game socially or strategically.  One note I'll make here: She sounds a lot like Sydney (Ayo Edibiri) from the TV show "The Bear".  They have similar voices.  Would love to see more next week from MC.

Jawan: Not a great start
He seemed to really be into the fact that Nate worked on a Spider-Man film, but we never saw Jawan and him connect much.  Then, he tries to start a fire, and it gets to him both physically and mentally, and Savannah takes notice.  Just not a great start for him.  Savannah DID like him, but after his fire-making debacle, she might be willing to just let him go.

Sophi: Have to be careful
And what I mean by that is if people notice you're making too many connections, they will target you.  See Swati in 42.  But the way it was portrayed, it didn't seem too bad.  I think she's in a great spot, since Annie would prefer to go with her and Jeremiah over Jake and Alex.

Jeremiah: That damn annoying laugh...
My word.  I don't know if I can take a full season of it.  Here's hoping we have a few episodes without it.  I do like his positioning in the game and the connection he made with Sophi.  He seemed to also get along with Jake, a fellow Canadian.  Socially, he seems to be there, unless people realize they can no longer put up with his annoying laugh.

Jake: Too much bro energy
He's just too much.  I do like his connection with Alex, but I am foreseeing a blindside on him shortly after the merge.  He should survive the pre-merge unless their tribe is dumb and wants to lose 3+ pre-merge challenges.  

Annie: Doesn't have it socially
She literally said she's never done a competition with a social element before.  RED FLAG.  She also threw Alex's name out AFTER making an alliance with him.  She also went off on her own and didn't connect to too many other people (Sophi, kind of).  

Rizo: Will be featured player
He's definitely going to finish at or near the top for confessionals, no doubt.  Sure, the one-on-one challenge helped since they make players narrate it, but he still would've been in the top half without it I think.  He also seems to have ingratiated himself well into his tribe.  His tribe seems to like him.  

Sophie: Did well guiding challenge
I really don't recall any camp life stuff with her, so this is all I have.  She seems to remain calm under pressure, which is good.  But I feel if she was a major player this season, she would have had more in the premiere episode.  Plus, we don't know of any alliance for her.  So I am a bit concerned.

Savannah: Exactly how I predicted
I had a good feeling that Savannah would form good bonds early.  She would be the one person on her tribe I would most be surprised to be blindsided.  We saw her perspective on a few different things, which always bodes well for a potential winner.  

And to our departed player...

Nicole: Not for this show
Physically she wasn't handling it well.  Socially, she spit in Jeremiah's face to help clear the mud out of his eyes, which I'm sure rubbed him at least a little the wrong way.  And lastly, she couldn't detect that her tribemates were lying to her.  She just wasn't cut out for Survivor, unfortunately.

First official power rankings!  There is obviously going to be a LOT of movement early from my pre-season rankings.  Some players I think I already got massive misreads on.  

17th: Jawan (-9)
16th: Annie (-12)
15th: Sophie (-13)
14th: Sage (-1)
13th: Kristina (-2)
12th: Alex (-2)
11th: Shannon (+4)
10th: Jake (-5)
9th: Jason (+3)
8th: Matt (+10)
7th: Sophi (0)
6th: MC (+3)
5th: Nate (+9)
4th: Jeremiah (+2)
3rd: Steven (+14)
2nd: Rizo (+1)
1st: Savannah (0)

Big risers: Matt (+10), Nate (+9), Steven (+14!)
Big fallers: Jawan (-9), Annie (-12), Sophie (-13)

Comment: Jawan falls the hardest for me and to #17.  I'm going to predict we don't quite have a disaster tribe this season and both red and yellow go to tribal pre-merge.  I worry for Jawan if red goes.  I'd like to put Annie higher, but socially, she just doesn't seem to be quite there.  I also thought that about Gabler, so maybe she has a Gabler-style run in her.  Then we have a bunch of players we didn't see enough strategy from (#15-11), then some who I got good feelings about but still worry a bit (#10-6).  My top 5 I could see going far.  We shall see.  

AFTER EPISODE 2 FOUR WORD GAME

Jawan: Endeared himself to tribe
Interesting how we got Savannah's take on it (again), but Jawan did endear himself to his tribe by not only winning the journey but choosing to help his tribe over himself.  But then that put him in the tough spot of having to alienate an entire tribe.  For that reason alone, I might've chosen to help myself.

Sophie: Somehow connected to group
We saw something, I guess, with her connecting through MC to the main foursome on Hina.  But Sophie undoubtedly will be in trouble if Hina loses a challenge, which after seeing this past immunity, might not happen.

Sage: Oddly sat out challenge
To me, Sage comes across as one of the more physical women on the cast, having served in the military.  Yet she was Uli's first ever sit out.  Not tiny Savannah, not skinny Shannon, and not skinny Rizo.  Her.  Seems like it worked out, though.

Kristina: Should watch allies closely
Especially MC, who seems to maybe not want to be in the group.  We might have a power struggle.  But with how little content we've gotten from Hina, they might not go to a pre-merge tribal.  

Alex: Saving idol smart move
Also was getting Jake to help him.  If Alex had saved Annie, that would have earned her trust but lost Jake's, Sophi's, and Jeremiah's.  He is now the most powerful player in the game, being the only one currently with an idol or advantage.

Shannon: Spiritual stuff must stop
She can't be the Kumbaya leader, even if that makes people happier.  People won't respect her as a Survivor player at the end.  Shannon might get far, but her win equity remains low.

Jake: Shoe bandit must stop

Even if he doesn't get caught, it's contributing to his tribe's low morale.  If he absolutely must do it, he needs to hide his own shoe.  But so far, the person whose shoe he has hidden has been voted out, so that might not be the wisest.

Jason: Still the puzzle king
Hina absolutely killed it at the challenge, and it was largely because of Jason's puzzle prowess.  Even Jeff is starting to take notice.  Let this be a lesson to future Survivor players.  It's more important to be able to do puzzles than to be in top notch physical shape.  Although you do have to be in somewhat good shape.

Matt: Smart to form alliance

And it was an interesting one, with two white males and two black females.  I don't think we have ever had an alliance like that on Survivor.  I think it will largely be on Matt to keep it together and not do anything to cause the women to go with Sophie and pick up Jason.

Sophi: Weirdly close to Jake
I'm getting a weird vibe with how close she seems to be to Jake, but it's not really shown, only told.  Like the producers are cutting stuff out they don't want to show us.  Anyway, Sophi needs to pick it up at puzzles or she could be the next to go.

MC: Absolutely right move made
Not only did she form a foursome, but she connected with Sophie just in case she wanted to make a move against them.  Worst comes to worst, she turns on Sophie pre-merge, which won't hurt her since Sophie wouldn't be on the jury.  

Nate: He's not that old
I'm sorry, but Nate is still a millennial.  He is now the old man on his tribe.  That's crazy to me.  I'm a millennial, so it makes me feel old as well.  At least he's trying to relate to his tribe.

Jeremiah: Next on chopping block?
He might be.  If Kele loses AGAIN, it sure looks like Jeremiah might be the next to go.  He seems the least connected player remaining on his tribe.

Steven: Left out, stock falls
Steven was largely absent from this past episode, so my winner stock in him ultimately has to fall.  I like how he formed that foursome with Matt, MC, and Kristina, and I think even if MC and Kristina turn on them, they're more likely to turn on Matt than Steven... I think.

Rizo: Showing that generational gap 
I think that was Rizo's purpose this past episode.  We saw a bit from Savannah as well, but mostly Rizo.  He was largely devoid of any real game content, so that's a small concern, but I don't believe winners in the New Era get game content EVERY episode.

Savannah: Devious but at top
I'm keeping Savannah here until I see any large evidence to think otherwise.  She's gotten good content the first two episodes and outside of Kele has been the most consistently prominent player.  

And to our departed player...

Annie: Not her ideal season
Switch Annie with Sue Smey from 47.  Does Sue do any better this season?  I don't think she does.  She wouldn't help the tribe more.  My point is, Annie was put on a bad tribe on a less than ideal season.  Timing is everything in Survivor, including what season you get put on.

New power rankings!  Obviously, this early on, there will be a LOT of movement.  I've definitely gone back and forth on multiple players.  Here it is:

16th: Jeremiah (-12)
15th: Sage (-1)
14th: Jawan (+3)
13th: Sophie (+2)
12th: Jason (-3)
11th: Matt (-3)
10th: Alex (+2)
9th: Sophi (-2)
8th: Kristina (+5)
7th: Steven (-4)
6th: MC (0)
5th: Jake (+5)
4th: Nate (+1)
3rd: Shannon (+8)
2nd: Rizo (0)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rise: Shannon (+8)
Biggest fall: Jeremiah (-12)

I'm going all-in on Kele being the disaster tribe and voting out Jeremiah next episode.  Yes, he was included in the promo for 49, but so was Brandon Donlon for 45.  The next few are who I feel are either at the bottom of near the bottom of their tribes, then two of the other Kele and Alex and Sophi, than the remaining Hina members, then Jake, then the power alliance on Uli.  With Kele struggling and Hina not getting screen time, that says to me Uli is the tribe that goes furthest in this game.  That's usually the case.  It's not the disaster tribe (outside of 44), and it's not the tribe ignored in the edit.  We shall see.  

AFTER EPISODE 3 FOUR WORD GAME
Quick side note: I did NOT like this past episode.  Kele lost again, and I am so sick of the current format which almost ensures we have one tribe taking up all the screen time and time at tribal.  It's BEYOND old at this point.  Also, I was VERY tempted to not do a 4WG for some players who barely got any screen time this past episode, but a lot of these will be very short and brief.
 
Sage: Wise to do something
Besides just be on the outs.  Good for Sage to stir something up.

Jawan: Still thinks he's in
The majority, or so it appears.  With a tribe swap coming up, we will never find out.  Thanks, Jeff.  

Sophie: Medevac got her emotional
Sophie was one I noticed was particularly shocked by the news.  

Jason: Jeff making him threat
Jeff keeps pointing out how well Jason is doing at the puzzle portion.  That's not doing Jason any favors.

Matt: Bring in someone else
Whoever is a new tribemate to Matt, Matt needs to bring them into his four.  

Alex: Had to play safe
He had to play his idol, right?  Despite not getting votes from both Sophi and Jeremiah, he would've been kinda silly not to, since he could always find another.  That should be a rule of thumb for future Survivor players: If you have a tribe of 3 and you have an Idol, play it.  

Sophi: Will find new life
The complex content Sophi has gotten leads me to believe she will go fairly far.  Obviously, Alex and Sophi will not be considered threats, as Uli and Hina will be gunning for each other.  

Kristina: Did challenge surprisingly well
I think it's safe to say that Kristina is of a similar build to Cirie, who famously struggled with a water balance beam in Game Changers, so I was pleasantly surprised to see how well Kristina did.

Steven: Social game determines everything 
We know Steven isn't too physically threatening nor weak, which is good.  He can likely strategize.  Him bonding with other players come the tribe swap and merge will determine how far he goes.

MC: Found advantage, good position
To me, MC is the top of the Hina tribe.  She has the beware advantage that seems easy enough to become an idol, and she has connections to the four and Sophie.  She's solid.

Nate: How will age affect?
If not at all, I could see Nate going very far.  If it's a slight issue, it could be the reason he goes.

Shannon: Power position, but vulnerable
Shannon was referred to being in a power position, but I could easily see Savannah casting her aside if she needed to.  I have a feeling that may happen shortly after the merge.

Rizo: Lack of maturity there
It makes me think if Rizo gets to the end, he won't even be 2nd.  I worry about anyone taking him seriously.

Savannah: Must lower threat level
I think her lack of size won't fool many people.  Small can be mighty in the game of Survivor.  

And to our TWO departed players...

Jake: Departure seemed bit off
Like there was still some information we're not getting.  Did his wife communicate to him that he hadn't had their baby, and used this "medevac" as an excuse to go home?  Also, if Jake REALLY wanted to stay in the game, the smart thing would've been to lie and say the snake only brushed up against him, because it appears they did not get it on camera.  But perhaps he was worried for his own safety.  

Jeremiah: Another gay man fifteenth
The last FIVE players to be the fourth boot (or finish in 15th) have ALL been gay men, most of them non-white.  From 45 on, it has been Sean, Bhanu, Kishan, Thomas, and now Jeremiah.  If you're a gay man going to tribal that night, play your idol or shot in the dark!

And our new power rankings... we have a VERY predictable tribe swap next episode, so that'll affect things here a bit.  I'm going to have to go with more of how they're being portrayed rather their current position on their tribes, since I don't know how the tribes will shake out.

14th: Sophie (-1)
13th: Sage (+2)
12th: Kristina (-4)
11th: Jason (+1)
10th: Jawan (+4)
9th: Matt (+2)
8th: Steven (-1)
7th: Nate (-3)
6th: Alex (+4)
5th: MC (+1)
4th: Shannon (-1)
3rd: Rizo (-1)
2nd: Sophi (+7)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rise: Sophi (+7)
Biggest fall: Kristina (-4)

Alex and Sophi take huge jumps as they will no longer be considered threats, and it appears Hina and Uli will be going after each other.  If it was just Alex and Sophie each joining a different tribe (like in Philippines), I would have them much lower, but it appears everyone is dropping their buffs and that is not the case.  Most of Hina is near the bottom, because of the two tribes that have YET to go to tribal STILL, Hina is definitely not getting as much screen time.  

AFTER EPISODE 4 FOUR WORD GAME

Sophie: Right to criticize food
Finally!  Someone stuck their neck out and criticized production for not giving them food that will temporarily ACTUALLY fill their bellies.  I guess this is why Sophie is getting a bad edit.  

Sage: In temporary bad spot
With her and Shannon being the only two original Uli's, Sage could be in trouble.  The merge is likely after the next vote, so she really only has to survive the next vote, IF they lose.

Kristina: Some in depth content
Good to see some in depth, emotional content for Kristina.  I think that means she at least makes the jury.  I don't think she wins because of her poor edit prior to this, but it's something.

Jason: Tribe has to win
Otherwise, he's a goner, right?  At this point, they would not turn on Nate or Jawan, and Sophi has ingratiated herself well with her new tribe.  Fortunately, odds are it ends in a puzzle since the last one didn't, so that gives them good odds with having Jason.

Jawan: Swap helps resolidify bonds?
Jawan was on the outs of Uli, which he even recognized and pointed out.  Now that they're forced to work together to maintain majority, perhaps he will resolidify his bonds with Savannah and Rizo and Nate?  

Steven: Introduction seen at least
We saw Steven introduce himself, interestingly not as a rocket scientist but as a progammer for a space company.  I wonder if that's actually true and it's considered LIKE a rocket scientist or he is trying to lower his threat level.  Sorry, that's all I remember from him this episode.

Nate: Held firm, stayed cool
Despite him and Matt being against each other, which surprised me.  I'd have thought they would've bonded, given them both being on the older side of things.  Nevertheless, Nate held his ground well.  Including at the challenge lifting both Rizo and Savannah up.

Alex: Finally won a challenge!
Congrats to Alex!  And I thought he did fairly well introducing himself to his new tribe.  I think he'll be fine even if they lose the next challenge.

MC: Challenge MVP of season
Just, wow.  I'm very impressed with MC's athleticism.  The way she was able to lift up players on HER shoulders, usually something reserved for men.  

Shannon: Fortune dropped real fast
She went from a majority alliance to the bottom real fast.  Plus, these meditation things she's doing in the morning MIGHT be cause for the rest to vote her out.  

Rizo: Found idol, now what?
What's his gameplan?  Stick with Savannah and Nate and possibly Jawan?  I want to see him intereact with more than them.

Sophi: Played post swap perfectly
We've seen some impressive post-swap games, but Sophi did hers VERY well.  Connected with basically everyone, but the one that stood out to me was her connection to Savannah.  I think that might last a long time....

Savannah: Still out there dominating
I don't know what to say.  She's the winner.  Unless she gets targeted like Rachel did and is unable to save herself.  

And to our departed player...

Matt: Another twist screwed player
Whether's it's a swap, loss of a vote, advantage, there always seems to be at least one player screwed over in the pre-merge.  I think Matt could've at least made jury if not for this, but alas, it wasn't meant to be.

New rankings!  With the tribe swap, some definitely have to move a bit.  Some might stay about the same.  

13th: Jason (-2)
12th: Sage (+1)
11th: Shannon (-7)
10th: Sophie (+4)
9th: Kristina (+3)
8th: Jawan (+2)
7th: Steven (+1)
6th: Nate (+1)
5th: Alex (+1)
4th: MC (+1)

3rd: Sophi (-1)
2nd: Rizo (+1)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rise: Sophie (+4)
Biggest fall: Shannon (-7)

Sophie rises, mostly because she got swapped to a decent position.  If they do a "fake merge" and re-swap the "tribes", my pick is Sophie to be the one screwed over.  Anyway, it was mostly just Shannon falling and everyone rising a spot.  I swapped Sophi and Rizo, mostly because Rizo has an idol, but I'm also questioning Sophi's winning chances slightly.  

AFTER EPISODE 5 FOUR WORD GAME

Sage: Won over her tribe
By telling them about Rizo's advantage and likely idol.  Honestly, it's probably smart since Sage was not in their core four.  She also was right to clock Shannon for being fake.  

Shannon: Playing way too hard
I give Shannon credit, she is working her tribe, but it seems to be too much and with too many people.  I don't think Shannon would've survived had they lost immunity.

Sophie: Only talks about food
Not saying it's her choice, but she only got to talk about chicken this week after talking about the fruit last week.  Sigh.  It must mean we're not supposed to get too close to her.

Kristina: Handed chicken for nothing
She sat out of the challenge because she's the most out-of-shape player on their tribe, and she does nothing to help prepare the chicken to be eaten.  To top it off, she made an asinine comment in her confessional about being scared of birds but wanting to eat the chicken.  Safe to say I don't like Kristina.  

Jawan: Can't get social foothold
What I mean by that is a solid place in this game socially.  I didn't realize Jawan would struggle this much socially, but it was clear at tribal that it's going to be tough sledding for him.  

Steven: Upcoming social play important
There's going to be ANOTHER tribe swap it appears, and a merge soon after.  How Steven plays those rounds will determine his fate in the game.  I could see him fitting in somewhere or I could see him being a target since he is one of the figureheads of old Hina.

Nate: Incredibly smart journey play
To propose leaving one bag, and then deke MC into thinking there was hardly any time left.  I'm surprised we didn't see her catching on to him.  He prevented her from getting an advantage, which he knew he wouldn't find before her.  He's very aware of people's abilities.

Alex: What is his strategy? 
I'm not exactly sure what Alex's strategy is in this game right now.  Has he bonded with those former Hina members?  Sure, kind of.  But who does he want to to go to the end with?  I'm not exactly sure.  It'll be interesting to see if he can make a bond with Nate (who he apparently gets swapped with) and if Sophi will bring him into that group alongside Rizo and Savannah.

MC: Should have gotten advantage
I think Nate and the journey may have worn her down a bit, but that advantage they had out there was MC's for the taking.  She does still have her beware advantage, but she hasn't been able to search for it because she remains one of SIX players to STILL not have gone to ONE tribal council, now coming up on our sixth episode.  Crazy.

Sophi: Struggling but staying alive
She has been to every tribal council.  Crazy.  Meanwhile, six players in this game have not been to one.  Whatever production needs to do to even those kinds of numbers out in the future, they need to do.  I hope after the swap she's not on the one team that loses next week.  

Rizo: Hero spot but failed
Rizo had the hero spot in the challenge with shooting the baskets but failed and was beaten by Alex.  I don't think that will come up in the future, but you never know.  He also bonked Sophi on the head, which, man, poor Sophi.  

Savannah: Center of the show
I feel like Savannah gets so much focus and time each week.  She is going far in this game, no doubt.  She is either the winner or being set up as the final boss.  Time will tell.

And to our departed player...

Jason: No puzzles cost him
The two challenges post-swap both did not end in a puzzle, which cost Jason the game.  Honestly, it's rotten luck when you combine that with the tribe swap that screwed him.  

New power rankings!  How do things shape up now?   Let's see...

12th: Kristina (-3)
11th: Sophie (-1)
10th: Shannon (+1)
9th: Jawan (-1)
8th: Steven (-1)
7th: Sage (+5)
6th: Alex (-1)
5th: MC (-1)
4th: Nate (+2)
3rd: Sophi (0)
2nd: Rizo (0)
1st: Savannah (0)

Biggest rise: Sage (+5)
Biggest fall: Kristina (-3)

My top remains the same, but some notable movement, although not a ton.  Kristina drops for me.  I just can't stand her at this point.  She has zero of the charm of Cirie, I'm sorry.  So until she redeems herself for me, she might stay at the bottom.  Sage jumps up; I like that she told people about Rizo's advantage.  Nate jumps up as well a tiny bit, I think he's smarter then even he lets on.  

Survivor 49 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 49 is less than a month away, and with the official cast release, it's time for my cast review and predictions.  Like I've done in the New Era so far, I will give each player two comparables of who they remind me of, and then give them a placement I think they'll fall into with a range of 6 spots, such as 12th to 7th, 18th to 13th, etc.  The last two seasons I have gotten 6/18 correct, so I am really hoping to not make it 3 in a row and hopefully improve back to where I used to be, which was around 8 or 9 correct.   So I have to return to form this season.  I'll organize them alphabetically by first name so I can find them easier later on.  I'll be updating these as they get voted out to see if I'm right or wrong; those updates will be in BOLD.  I'll be going off of Entertainment Weekly's article about the cast done by Dalton Ross.  Also, I will color code these by tribe.  Red is for Uli, Blue is for Kele, and Yellow is for Hina.  And I'll put together a boot order given my placements for them at the end of all this.  

Lastly, I wanted to note that I do know the two players from this season who will be returning for Survivor 50, so that does give me a bit of an advantage that I don't normally get.  Since I'm only competing against myself, I will take it.  I won't mention who those players are here or in my comments on them, but do note that they are very likely one of the players that I predict to go far in this game.  Without further ado, the cast:

Alex Moore, 27, Political Comms Director from Washington D.C.
Comparables: Dwight Moore, Jon Lovett
For Alex's comparables, I chose two New Era players whose careers also have to do with politics.  Surprisingly, players in the political field tend to not do so well on Survivor.  And I'm sorry to say that I think the same will be true for Alex.  At best, I think he overplays his hand mid-merge as a possible blindside.  At worst, he's an early boot.  I'll try to give him the tiniest benefit of the doubt.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

Kimberly "Annie" Davis, 49, Musician from Austin, TX
Comparables: Sue Smey, Carolyn Wiger
Annie is a force, having commanded a company and now is a musician, reminding me a lot of Sue Smey in owning her own flight company.  Annie is the oldest woman on the cast, so as always with someone like that, they are very high variance.  Meaning, they could be one of the first boots or they could be a losing finalist, like Sue.  But what usually decides it is tribe strength.  It's heavily reliant on their starting tribe, and I think Annie will be saved by being on a good tribe, skirting on by, possibly all the way to FTC.  But I think it's a safe bet to say she is not winning this season.  
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 17th.  It really comes down to the tribe you're put on.  You switch Annie and Sue Smey, and I guarantee Annie goes far in 47 while Sue gets voted out early in 49.  My mistake was thinking she was on a good tribe (hey, I thought Jake could carry them).

Jake Latimer, 36, Correctional Officer from St. Albert, Alberta, Canada
Comparables: Danny Massa, Jonathan Young
Oh boy, Jake and I are the same age, but man, he has accomplished so much in his life compared to me.  He's like Forrest Gump.  I fully expect Jake to make the merge, barring him doing something dumb.  But I can't see that happening; he has been watching since he was a kid and should know the game well enough to avoid that.  However, I expect his threat level to be a huge issue for him, as I believe others will see and recognize that he could very well win if he gets to the end.  Possible final boss, possible early to mid-merge boot.
Predicted finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 16th.  Although two things, one, who could've seen Kele as the disaster tribe with him on it, and two, of course, medevacs are not predictable in the slightest so I will almost always get players medevaced wrong.

Jason Treul, 32, Law Clerk from Santa Ana, CA
Comparables: Kenny Hoang, Matt Blankinship
I had to take Kenny from Jason's "Who he will most play like", since they also look alike.  They're also both computer/video game nerds who don't get out much.  He also looks like Matt from 44, so I had to add him.  I think Jason is on the disaster tribe, which is usually the Yellow tribe when they do the three primary colors, so even if he's in the power alliance, he's not getting terribly far.  I think he could be screwed by a split tribal when he's perhaps the only Hina tribe member.  
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
CORRECT, 13th.  He was not on the disaster tribe, but he was screwed by a twist in the game, but not a split tribal, but instead a tribe swap.

Jawan Pitts, 28, Video Editor from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: James Jones, Tim Spicer
Jawan definitely seems like the kind of guy who either gets overconfident/overplays like James or he gets forgotten about/purpled like Tim.  I cannot see him getting terribly far, unless he scoots on by like DeShawn did in 41.  I think he'll be fine getting to the merge, but once he gets there, all bets are off.  
Predicted finish: 12th-7th

Jeremiah Ing, 39, Global Events Manager from Toronto, ON, Canada
Comparables: Tai Trang, Yam-Yam Arrocho
Jeremiah was featured in the 49 promo, so possibly good things for him.  Although, so was Brandon in 45, so that doesn't mean everything.  But I do believe he'll link up with a girl or two on his tribe and get by to the merge, possibly even getting far.  But there's just something that tells me he's not making the FTC or maybe not even the finale.  Seems too big for him, perhaps.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 15th.  Yet again, a disaster tribe screws over a player that SHOULD have gone farther.  I was right in saying just because he was featured in the promo, doesn't mean he will go far. 

Kristina Mills, 36, MBA Career Coach from Edmond, OK
Comparables: Taj George, Cirie Fields
Kristina is on my predicted disaster tribe, so the first vote will be crucial.  I bet she links up with MC and possibly brings in another, so her going early is no guarantee.  I could see yellow voting out their physical strength early despite them needing them early, and forcing production to induce a tribe swap, because they always swap when there's a disaster tribe (After 41, that is).  So I could see Kristina being saved by a swap and getting far-ish, but how far?  Hard to say.  I'll say not terribly far.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

Matt Williams, 52, Airport Ramp Agent from St. George, UT
Comparables: Mike Gabler, Brad Reese
Matt's the cooky older white guy, like his comparables.  But like Broccoli Brad and unlike Gabler, I expect Matt to go early.  He's on a bad tribe, and I can't see him surviving multiple early votes.  They'll likely go 3 votes before the swap, and I can't see him making it.  He might even be the first boot.  Sorry, Matt.  I just don't see him being in an alliance with more than one person, who he will likely bring down with him.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 14th.  Phew!  I correctly pegged Matt as an early boot.  But I will say, it was largely due to circumstances outside of his control AKA the tribe swap.

Michelle "MC" Chukwujekwu, 29, Fitness Trainer from San Diego, CA
Comparables: Tiffany Ervin, Drea Wheeler
MC is the athletic chick who will almost for sure make the merge, unless something crazy happens like she gets swap-screwed or plays extremely paranoid.  How far she gets is another story.  I could see her linking up with Kristina and possibly outlasting her... they each are threats, but in different ways.  I'll give MC the slight edge.  
Predicted finish: 12th-7th

Nate Moore, 47, Film Producer from Hermosa Beach, CA
Comparables: Cedrek McFadden. Nick Brown
Now I highly doubt Nate is going to be as wacky and unpredictable in the game as Cedrek.  I expect him to come across calm and laid back like Nick, but I do expect him to be more active than some of the older guys from the past.  I bet Nate will be hiding his occupation, unless he has zero desire to win.  I can't imagine him lasting too too long.  He probably has a multi-million dollar home to go back to.  If Uli goes to a pre-merge tribal, I could easily see Nate being a target and the one who goes.  
Predicted finish: 16th-11th

Nicole Mazullo, 26, Financial Crime Consultant from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Teeny Chirchillo, Lyida Meredith
There aren't many I would put money on being an early boot, but Nicole might be one of them.  She doesn't seem to be in the greatest shape, could cost her tribe a challenge, and seems like someone who could rub others the wrong way.  Best-case scenario is a Teeny-type run where she gets to the finale.  But I don't think Nicole will even do that.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
WRONG, 18th.  I'm so mad that I am 1 spot off.  But it's still off.  I did correctly say I would put money on her being an early boot.  I should've considered her to be a first boot.  My mistake was thinking Blue would win the first immunity.

Rizo Velovic, 25, Tech Sales from Yonkers, NY
Comparables: Xander Hastings, Carson Garrett
A young, confident guy?  Haven't seen that before.  Rizo calls himself the "Rizgod", and oh my word I hope he doesn't use that too much with his tribemates.  Heck, I hope he doesn't use that too much toward us in his confessionals.  Please, no third person.  But he seems like a good kid at heart, and I bet he will surprise some people.  I can't explain why, but he seems like someone who will make the move of the season.  Whether it works or blows up in his face, I don't know.  But he seems like he'd have the balls to do it.  Possibly just for the meme.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd

Sage Ahren-Nichols, 30, Clinical Social Worker from Olympia, WA
Comparables: Kendra McQuarrie, Jennifer Lanzetti
Who collects pimples, honestly?  Sage is certainly a kooky one, and she definitely seems more character than player.  The worst-case scenario would be that she is mostly invisible, and the few times we actually see her speak, she says something crazy.  Honestly... I could see that happening.  I chose Jennifer from Kaoh Rong as a comparable because Sage seems like someone who would stand on her seat at tribal as well.  
Predicted finish: 15th-10th

Savannah Louie, 31, Former Reporter from Atlanta, GA
Comparables: Michele Fitzgerald, Kim Spradlin
Savannah is the complete package.  I see winner written on her forehead.  Not literally, obviously.  That's why I chose two winners as comparables for her.  She's got experience, the right amount of cunning and villainy, and, she's on a good tribe.  I could see her linking with Sage and stabbing her in the back.  I could see her "putting up" with Rizo, and using Nate and Jawan.  She's got it all.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st

Shannon Fairweather, 28, Wellness Specialist from Boston, MA
Comparables: Stephanie Berger, Sarah Wade
I compared Shannon to Stephanie and Sarah, two blondes who got booted before the merge.  She comes off as too spiritual and not a great listener.  She's on what I think will be a good tribe in challenges, but if they lose just 1 challenge, Shannon would be my pick from their tribe to go.  Nate and Jawan are likely together.  Rizo and Savannah seem like they'd be safe.  And they'll need Sage for challenges.  
Predicted finish: 17th-12th

Sophi Ballerdi, 27, Entrepreneur from Miami, FL
Comparables: Dee Valladares, Abi-Maria Gomes
We got another Latina fireball here, everyone.  Sophi is certainly going to try to wiggle her way into some guy'(s) heart(s).  I could easily see her wooing Alex, who mentioned in his intro video he might be looking for love.  And they're the same age.  I could see him crushing on her while she plays along for the game, like Dee and Austin in 45.  Calling it now.  However, their duo will not do as well.  I think Sophi will do better than Alex, but not too much better.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th

Sophie Segreti, 31, Strategy Associate from New York, NY
Comparables: Rachel LaMont, Erika Casupanan
Sophie seems like the perfect Survivor player.  Social, but not too social.  Shows good game acumen but does not come off as intimidating.  That's why I chose two winners for her comparables, who fit that description as well.  Does Sophie, win, however?  You'll have to wait and see.  I would not be the least bit surprised by a Sophie win, I will at least say.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st

Steven Ramm, 35, Rocket Scientist from Denver, CO
Comparables: Danny Massa, David Voce
I hate to say it, but Steven, being on my disaster tribe pick, also doesn't have a ton of lasting power in this season.  I think possibly Matt goes, and then Steven is on the outs.  I could see the two of them aligning, but being in the minority.  Perhaps they won't be as bad of a tribe as I think.  But I think it's more common than not that, in the New Era, one tribe loses a lot more than the other 2.  That was the case in 41, 44, 45, 46, and 48.  That's 5/8, and 4 of the last 5 seasons.  It's a trend that seems likely to continue.  
Predicted finish: 17th-12th

All right, now a boot order, based on where I predicted them to finish:

18th: Matt
17th: Steven
16th: Nicole
15th: Shannon
14th: Nate
13th: Sage
12th: Jason
11th: Kristina
10th: Alex
9th: MC
8th: Jawan
7th: Sophi
6th: Jeremiah
5th: Jake
4th: Annie
3rd: Rizo
2nd: Sophie
1st: Savannah


There you have it, my winner pick for Survivor 49 is Savannah!  She definitely seems like the complete package, and I could see her, Rizo, and Sophie running the game together come the merge.  I mentioned Sophie as having all the traits, but I think Savannah will have more of a killer instinct, which nets her the win over Sophie.  By the way, I have Rizo beating Annie in fire, but it's not enough to get him the win.  

So far, my winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 16th, 1st, and 16th. 17th

Here are my winner picks and how they've done so far:
41 - Evie, 9th
42 - Maryanne, 1st WINNER
43 - Jesse, 4th
44 - Lauren, 5th
45 - Sabiyah, 16th
46 - Kenzie, 1st WINNER
47 - Aysha, 16th
48 - Kevin, 17th

Yikes!  Three bad ones the last 4 times and one good one in correctly picking the winner.  My winner pick averages a placement of 8.6, so at least I have a jury average. 

Here's how where I had the actual winners placed at the start of each season:

41 - Erika: 3rd
42 - Maryanne: 1st
43 - Gabler: 18th (yikes)
44 - Yam-Yam: 3rd
45 - Dee: 9th
46 - Kenzie: 1st
47 - Rachel: 18th (Another yikes)
48 - Kyle: 2nd (So close)

With an average placement of 6.875, so this one's a bit better.  I have a slightly better read on how well the winner actually does than I do picking someone out who will go far and win.  

I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range.  Any updates will be in BOLD.  Hoping to improve upon the paltry 6/18 I have gotten the last two seasons.  Let's hope for half right again!

How I would've done Survivor 50's Cast

 I know I just did a post with alternative picks for each of the players, but I wanted to take a slightly different approach here.  I wanted to explore a scenario they should've considered.  Since they're willing to do a 24-player cast, why not do one representative from each pair of seasons?  So one player from seasons 1-2, one player from 3-4, and so on.  Also, with the flexibility of returning player seasons, you could select a player from their returning season rather than their OG season if you want to get someone else.  This way, the entire history of Survivor is represented.  Jeff has said "everywhere in between" was represented when he and the rest of production completely ignored seasons 19-31.  

I will pick 12 men and 12 women from every two seasons of Survivor.  I'll try to take a member of the 50 cast when possible, to appease Jeff.

Seasons 1 and 2: Colby Donaldson
Clearly, there was mutual interest, so I'll stick with Colby here.  Could use Jenna, but we also have All-Stars to consider her for.

Seasons 3 and 4: Sean Rector
Apparently, he was in the running?  Haven't heard anything definitive.  But he'd have been a joy to have back.

Seasons 5 and 6: Rob Cesternino
We know he was in the running, but cut last minute.  Shame.  Here's his opportunity.  I considered Heidi, but I went with someone who was more in the running, it seems.

Seasons 7 and 8: Jenna Lewis-Dougherty 
Here we have Jenna.  That is all.

Seasons 9 and 10: Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick
And now with Steph.  Vanuatu, unfortunately, gets shut out.

Seasons 11 and 12: Cirie Fields
And now Cirie, since she was on Panama.

Seasons 13 and 14: Jonathan Penner
I'm using Penner here since I'll be saving Ozzy for later.

Seasons 15 and 16: Amanda Kimmel-Cooper
She may have been in the running, so here's Amanda.  If not, you could also go with Peih-Gee, Courtney, or Natalie Bolton.

Seasons 17 and 18: Coach Wade
And here we have Coach, since his season was 18 (Tocantins).

Seasons 19 and 20: Courtney Merit 
We didn't have Courtney above so I include her here.  You could swap her and Amanda; it doesn't matter.  They each represent the 15-16 and 19-20 pairings.

Seasons 21 and 22: Fabio Birza
Here we have someone who probably wasn't even in the running for 50, but who else would be cast?  These seasons started the dark ages for Survivor...

Seasons 23 and 24: Ozzy Lusth 
Ozzy represents these seasons since... who else would it be?  Yikes.

Seasons 25 and 26: Abi-Maria Gomes
Apparently, she was in the running, so let's include Abi!

Seasons 27 and 28: Spencer Bledsoe
Why not?  He might've been in the running, and we know Jeff loves him.

Seasons 29 and 30: Natalie Anderson
She didn't have a great end to 40, so why not?  Could also consider Mama C (Carolyn, 30) here.  

Seasons 31 and 32: Aubry Bracco
And now we have Aubry.  Yay...

Seasons 33 and 34: Hannah Shapiro
I don't know who else it could be, but I like Hannah and I'm a little surprised she hasn't even been mentioned as a possible returning player.

Seasons 35 and 36: Chrissy Hofbeck
As much as I hate to snub Domenick, I have to go with Chrissy since the producers did.  Oh well.

Seasons. 37 and 38: Christian Hubicki
Oof, only one choice between Christian, Devens, Angelina, and Mike?  Yikes... Guess I'll go with Christian.

Seasons 39 and 40: Yul Kwon
Screw it, bring Yul back.  Give him one more chance.  

Seasons 41 and 42: Jonathan Young
Have to stick with the original choice.  

Seasons 43 and 44: Carolyn Wiger
Obvious choice is obvious.  Although I could've gone with Jesse from 43, then I'd only have women to pick from in my last two picks.

Seasons 45 and 46: Q Burdette
He was the most entertaining character of this bunch, so I'll stick with Q.

Seasons 47 and 48: Genevieve Mushaluk
Had to pick a woman based on the totals so far, so it was either her or Kamilla.  We saw Kamilla more recently.  

So here's how the new cast stacks up.  New players in RED.

Men: 
Colby Donaldson (1-2)
Sean Rector (3-4)
Rob Cesternino (5-6)
Jonathan Penner (13-14)
Coach Wade (17-18)
Fabio Birza (21-22)
Ozzy Lusth (23-24)
Spencer Bledsoe (27-28)
Christian Hubicki (37-38)
Yul Kwon (39-40)
Jonathan Young (41-42)
Q Burdette (45-46)

Women: 
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty (7-8)
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick (9-10)
Cirie Fields (11-12)
Amanda Kimmel (15-16)
Courtney Merit (19-20)
Abi-Maria Gomes (25-26)
Natalie Anderson (29-30)
Aubry Bracco (31-32)
Hannah Shapiro (33-34)
Chrissy Hofbeck (35-36)
Carolyn Wiger (43-44)
Genevieve Mushaluk (47-48)

Look at that, exactly half the cast changes.  I think I'd prefer this cast as well.  And this way, they could have said we drew from every era of Survivor and meant it.  No gaps.  

Alternative Picks for Each of the Survivor 50 Cast

I already gave my thoughts on the Survivor 50 cast, and while it's a decent cast and it should be a fun watch, I would have to say for a large majority of them, there is a player who I'd rather see, and most of those alternatives are people who would actually want to play again.  So in other words, I think they mostly got the cast wrong.  And I will do my best to pick a player of the same archetype or at least of the same gender, and even from the same era, although I'm going to replace a lot of New Era players with non-New Era players.  I'll go through and list an alternative for each player on 50, and then I'll rate it on a scale of 1-5.  Here's what the scale means:

1- I actually prefer who the producers chose, but not by a ton.
2- I'm okay either way.  Happy to see either choice.
3- I would kind of prefer to see my choice, but I understand.
4- I really prefer my choice.  I need an explanation, Jeffrey.
5- WTF why didn't they chose my person instead of theirs I'm so mad.

Player cast: Jenna Lewis-Dougherty - Borneo, All-Stars
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jerri Manthey, Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
Rating: 4
Comment: I'm guessing they really wanted someone from Borneo to have someone bookend 1 and 50, but I'd much rather have Jerri on my screen again than Jenna.  Besides, gotta have Jerri to go with Colby!

Player cast: Colby Donaldson - Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Rob Cesternino - Amazon, All-Stars
Rating: 4
Comment: How can they have Colby and not Jerri?  Sigh.  I know, Colby is one of the biggest names in Survivor history, but Rob Cesternino is up there as well, especially with RHAP.  

Player cast: Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick - Palau, Guatemala, Heroes vs. Villains
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Heidi Hamels (nee Strobel) - Amazon
Rating: 3
Comment: Funnily enough, these two both married MLB pitchers.  But I'd rather see Heidi, who I know has kept in good shape, since she hasn't returned yet, while Stephenie has twice.  But I undestand going for Stephenie as she is the bigger name.

Player cast: Cirie Fields - Panama: Exile Island, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains, Game Changers
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Amanda Kimmel - China, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains
Rating: 3
Comment: Amanda is the only one of the Black Widow Brigade's F3 that hasn't played in recent years.  There were rumors she might return.  She did pop up recently with her real estate business in Montana.  But I guess she's done with the show.  

Player cast: Ozzy Lusth - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, South Pacific, Game Changers
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jonathan Penner - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Philippines
Rating: 4
Comment: Again, if we had to cast someone from Cook Islands and Micronesia, why not Penner?  I know he's older, but I know his story about his wife would touch everyone.  But Ozzy not being able to dominate in challenges anymore makes him just not as entertaining.

Player cast: Coach Wade - Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains, South Pacific
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Stephen Fishbach - Tocantins, Cambodia: Second Chance
Rating: 2
Coach is the first casting that I probably wouldn't change.  But he's in his 50s, and I don't need a senile Coach.  Although that'd be entertaining.  I know Stephen has stayed in the community, appearing on RHAP, and I'd love to see him play again.

Player cast: Aubry Bracco - Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Edge of Extinction
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Abi-Maria Gomes - Philippines, Cambodia: Second Chance
Rating: 4
Comment: Abi is such an entertaining villainess, and from her social media, we know she wanted to play again and was in the casting process.  Aubry to me isn't nearly as entertaining.  And we've seen Aubry one more time (now two more times) than Abi.

Player cast: Chrissy Hofbeck - Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Victoria Baamonde - Edge of Extinction
Rating: 3
Comment: Like I said in my previous post, the show basically owes Chrissy, but I think I'd rather see Victoria.  Not that she's the same archetype, but I think she's better TV, if slightly.  Plus, she's younger and easier on the eyes.

Player cast: Christian Hubicki - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Devon Pinto
Rating: 1
Comment: I even struggled to think of someone for this.  Christian is 100% a good casting.  Devon, however, would be fun to see back, too.

Player cast: Angelina Keeley - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Hannah Shapiro - Millennials vs. Gen X
Rating: 1
Comment: Again, I'm 100% ok with this casting.  Hannah, however, would have been an out of left field casting that I would appreciate.

Player cast: Mike White - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Domenick Abbate - Ghost Island
Rating: 5
Comment: Jeff picking his friend over the only person to lose a tiebreaking FTC vote is certainly a choice.  Mike isn't a boring character, at least.  But Domenick would be so fun to see.

Player cast: Rick Devens - Edge of Extinction
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Dean Kowalski - Island of the Idols
Rating: 1
Comment: Again, no complaints.  Love seeing Devens back.  Dean was an underrated character who I was rooting for on his season, so there's that.

Player cast: Jonathan Young - 42
Who I'd maybe cast instead: David Kinne - 48
Rating: 2
Comment: I could go either way with these New Era challenge beasts.  Jonathan was more of a pre-merge challenge beast, while David did a little better with post-merge challenges.  I like David's strategic game a little more, though.  Oh well.

Player cast: Emily Flippen - 45
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Carolyn Wiger - 44
Rating: 4
Comment: I think I'm in the majority in saying Carolyn would be more interesting than Emily, although both are good TV.  I just wonder why they chose Emily over Carolyn.  Just seems puzzling.

Player cast: Dee Valladares - 45
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Kellie Nalbandian - 45
Rating: 3
First off, why two winners?  Feels weird.  But I think Kellie was a diamond in the rought (would greatly improve with a second chance), so maybe Kellie should wait for Second Chances 2, if they ever do that.

Player cast: Quintavius "Q" Burdette - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Kaleb Gebrewold - 45
Rating: 2
Q is a great character, so I'm not complaining.  But I really want to see Kaleb back, as well.  But I will admit Q is a better character.  I'd just prefer to see Kaleb's gameplay.

Player cast: Charlie Davis - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Austin Li Coon - 45
Rating: 2
Comment: I really liked 45's cast, I guess!  Both these guys lost a final tribal to a young female.  But if they were going to bring back Dee, I think they should've brought back Austin.  

Player cast: Tiffany Ervin - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Shan Smith - 41
Rating: 5
Comment: Shan is a villain, with her own "Shanthem".  What does Tiffany bring?  Uh.... she got voted out with an idol?  She dealt with Q and Bhanu?  She's not a bad character or player, but it certainly is puzzling to say the least.

Player cast: Genevieve Mushaluk - 47
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Karla Cruz Godoy - 43
Rating: 3
Comment: First, 50 needs more queer representation.  But secondly, Karla was a more interesting character to me.  She wasn't purpled pre-merge like Genevieve was.  Plus, add another POC.

Player cast: Kyle Fraser - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jesse Lopez - 43
Rating: 5
Comment: Why did Kyle have to return so soon?  Doesn't make a ton of sense.  And how they didn't cast Jesse will puzzle me for a long time.  I really want to try to understand this, but I can't.

Player cast: Joe Hunter - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Cody Assenmacher - 43
Rating: 4
Comment: Another from 43 I'd love to see again is Cody.  And he was more interesting than Joe.  As endearing?  Maybe not.  I just feel like in casting they were too biased towards the recent seasons.

Player cast: Kamilla Karthigesu - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Maryanne Okech, 42
Rating: 2
Comment: Well, if we're going to bring back winners, why not Maryanne?  She was a very fun and likable winner.  Although I'm interested to see how Kamilla does on a quick second chance.

Player cast: Male 49 returning player
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Hunter McKnight, 46
Rating: 4
Comment: I'm not going to spoil who it is here (look it up if you want to know), but regardless of how that player is, I'd rather see Hunter.  I liked him.  Why the heck not?

Player cast: Female 49 returning player
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Star Toomey, 48
Rating: 3
Comment: If we're going to bring back players from 48, why not Star?  She was entertaining as all get-out, the few times she was on screen.  But we'll have to wait and see how a certain someone is on 49.

And now that I've gone over alternate picks, here's an alternate cast of 50.  I'm going to replace each player if I gave a 3 or higher.  If I gave a 1 or 2, I won't.

Males: 
Rob Cesternino
Jonathan Penner
Coach Wade
Christian Hubicki
Domenick Abbate
Rick Devens
Jonathan Young
Q Burdette
Charlie Davis
Jesse Lopez
Cody Assenmacher
Hunter McKnight

Females:
Jerri Manthey
Heidi Strobel
Amanda Kimmel
Abi-Maria Gomes
Victoria Baamonde
Angelina Keeley
Carolyn Wiger
Kellie Nalbandian
Shan Smith
Karla Cruz Godoy
Kamilla Karthigesu
Star Toomey

Now which cast is better, the actual 50 cast or my 50 cast?  Obviously, I think my own, but I'm still happy with the one they actually chose.  But there sure are some really good ones they missed out on.

My Thoughts on Each of the Survivor 50 Players

The Survivor 50 Cast has officially been revealed, and I'm somewhere between whelmed and excited.  I guess you could say my excitement is tempered.  There are a few things I'd like to comment on now, such as no players whose original season was between Seasons 19-31, and how we got 11 players from seasons 45-49.  Definitely some recency bias there.  But man, it is going to be so fun seeming some of these players interact.  For each player, I'm going to rate them on a scale of 1-5 (5 being the highest) on how much I'm personally clamoring to see them back (which includes how much I'll be rooting for them) and what I think their chances of winning are.  

After reviewing each player, I'm going to pick my Top 5 Duos I want to see interact.  Each duo will be someone new, so I won't use the same player for any two duos.   

Also, there are two rumored players from 49 on 50, but I won't comment on them just yet, since I haven't seen them play.  After 49, however, I'll come back and talk about them here.

Here we go, in order of their initial season...

Jenna Lewis-Dougherty - Borneo, All-Stars
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of Winning: 2
They had to have a token Borneo player, and I know people were rooting for Greg, maybe a Colleen or Gervase.  But Jenna works, I guess.  I kind of expect her run to go similarly to Kelly Wigglesworth's in Second Chances.  Possibly a purple edit with no real chance of winning.  But, you never know.  She will certainly not be a threat.  My biggest worry for her is the older players being targeted early, just like they were in Winners at War.

Colby Donaldson - Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 2
I don't think I've even seen what Colby looks like in recent years.  Surely he's nowhere near as athletic.  But he was the first legitimate star of Survivor, with people naming their kids after him.  One thing I've wondered is if he may have had more win equity in HvV than AO.  He had Hero pals on the jury.  If he can make friends and get to the end, you never know.  But like Jenna, I worry about the newbies ganging up on the "oldies".

Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick - Palau, Guatemala, Heroes vs. Villains
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 1
Stephanie couldn't win a season she had an edge on as a captain, so I don't think she'll be capable of winning here.  I actually expect her to be an early boot, like she was on HvV, as I worry about her ingratiating herself with other tribe members, especially more recent players.  Or she could slip on by.  It'll depend on what the main driving force will be on a lot of votes.

Cirie Fields - Panama: Exile Island, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains, Game Changers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 4
Anyone else suffering Cirie fatigue?  That kinda rhymes.  And I didn't even really watch her Traitors season, although I saw her on AU vs. the World.  I worry the show may force her too much on us, or may try to hand her the win.  I'm okay with Cirie winning if it happens, but I don't want it in any way to be given to her.  Honestly, I'm kinda clamoring for her to go out in some way she hasn't gone yet.  

Ozzy Lusth - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, South Pacific, Game Changers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
Just... why?  I don't quite get it.  On Game Changers, we saw he had physically declined and could no longer dominate challenges.  That was filmed 9 years before 50 will film.  So Ozzy will have to rely on his social and strategic game.  IF he gets to the end, I could see it, but he'd have to get to the end.  Also, since he got into the adult entertainment industry, I'm surprised they wanted him back.  Hmm.

Coach Wade - Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains, South Pacific
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 2
Coach is such a great character, even in his 50s, I'm sure he'll bring something to the show.  I wonder who he will say is the "dragon" of this season.  There are a lot of choices.  And honestly, it'd be smart for a lot of the newer players to bring him along as a potential FTC goat, like Sophie did in SP.  I don't think Coach's chances of winning are a "1", as if he plays a similar game to SP and owns up his game at the end (unlike what he did that season), he has a shot... I guess.

Aubry Bracco - Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Edge of Extinction
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 4
Typically, someone fairly smart (often a woman) wins these All-Star-type seasons, like Amber in All-Stars, Parvati in Micronesia, and Sandra in HvV.  Aubry could be that this season.  Is the fourth time the charm?  And yes, I don't really need to see her play again, but it is what it is.  I just think she's really going to fade into the background with larger names taking more focus.

Chrissy Hofbeck - Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
The show definitely "owes" Chrissy due to the stupid twist of forced fire-making that surprised the cast of that season.  I believe Jeff when he says it was planned (and not just put in because Ben was in danger), but I also believe he likely told Chrissy after the season how he probably felt bad with the way it played out and promised her a chance on a returning player season due to that.  Otherwise, her inclusion feels... a bit out of place.  She may get purpled, as I think she's one of the less interesting characters on this cast. 

Christian Hubicki - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 5
Chances of winning: 3
I have been clamoring for his return for years.  Thank goodness.   I think Christian's chances are somewhere in the middle.  He'll definitely have to keep his threat level low enough into the merge, should he make it that far.  If he plays a great game and gets to the end, I could see it.  It would have to be very similar to Cochran's game in Caramoan.  But the problem is, I don't see him making it to the end.  

Angelina Keeley - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 2
It's hard to rank FTC losers higher than a 2 on chances of winning.  The only person to win AFTER losing at a FTC is Boston Rob.  But I'm fairly excited to see Angelina back.  I worry, however, that she won't be as engaging, funny, or meme-worthy.  I really hope she tries to negotiate something with Jeff, and the show would be smart to open that opportunity.  

Mike White - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 1
Mike is a millionaire already, so he's not going to win.  He would have to play the greatest game we've ever seen.  However, he may be worth a few funny moments on the show.  I just wasn't clamoring to see him, and we know he only got back on due to his friendship with Jeff, and how Jeff very likely told him he'd be on the next non-winners returning players season.

Rick Devens - Edge of Extinction
How much I want to see: 5
Chances of winning: 3
Dude was made for TV, and I'm excited to see him back.  He's kept in touch with the show, being the co-host of the On Fire podcast for a season.  Like Christian, I'll be rooting for him and hope to see him go far, but I'm worried about his chances of getting to the end.  

Jonathan Young - 42
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 1
Yes, I am putting Jonathan's chances of winning at a 1.  He has little to no social/strategic game, as we saw on 42.  Is there a chance he has some on 50?  Sure, but there's no way it'll be enough for him to win.  His best shot would be to absolutely dominate the individual challenges and be likable enough along the way to win.  But the moment he doesn't win one, he's gone.  I'll still be stoked to see him dominate challenges, and whoever gets him on their tribe is going to be very lucky.

Emily Flippen - 45
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 3
She can make good points and I think if she gets to the end in 45 against anyone except Dee, she likely wins.  I'm also surprised to see her, as I know she said on social media shortly after 45, that she likely wouldn't play again.  Well, I guess we all have to eat our words at some point.  There are certain players I know she won't like, such as Coach, Q, and Jonathan, and she's very likely to have someone like that on her starting tribe.  

Dee Valladares - 45
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
I almost wanted to put Dee's chances at a 1, but Sandra pulled off the back-to-back wins, and they have similar games, so I could see it.  But man, I wish they hadn't cast winners.  It'll be interesting to see how she downplays it.  I could see her being an early target, or make it very far.  High variance player to say the least.

Quintavius "Q" Burdette - 46
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 1
Like Coach, Q is such a great character for TV.  I cannot see him winning, however.  His problem is that I don't think he'd be taken seriously enough.  He's kind of like the male Angelina that way.  But he is going to have some interesting interactions with people, I can almost guarantee that.

Charlie Davis - 46
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 3
Charlie is the young white male who's come the closest to winning in the New Era, technically losing by a single vote.  I don't think he'll be considered a threat, which is good for him.  I wonder if he'll find another Maria on 50, perhaps Jenna, Chrissy, or heck, even Cirie.  I'd be down for any of those duos.

Tiffany Ervin - 46
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 3
I'm really perplexed by this one.  There are plenty of African-American women in the New Era to choose from, and they go with... Tiff.  Here's a list I'd personally rather see: Shan, Drea, Lauren, and Sai, and Star.  All to me are either better players or characters.  Tiff is a well-rounded Survivor player, but I don't think she excels at anything.  Perhaps she'll be the Wentworth of the season and blossom more of a player and character.  

Genevieve Mushaluk - 47
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 4
I was a bit surprised by this pick, mostly because Gen was purpled in the pre-merge on her season.  I really like her chances, but I worry because of the All-Star cast that she'll get purpled again.  If she wins, they better not.  There are so many threats that she could sneak by and be the Parvati/Amber of the season.

Kyle Fraser - 48
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 1
Like... why?  I don't dislike Kyle at all.  As a character, he was mid.  Not boring, but not the most engaging, either.  As a player, well, he just won, so why?  Kyle ties Jenna (6 and 8) and JT (18 and 20) as the players who returned most quickly after winning.  Neither of them did particularly well on their returning seasons, although Jenna left of her own accord.  I cannot see Kyle doing well, and his target as a winner will either carry him as a goat or be a target for him at some point.

Joe Hunter - 48
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
I just finished his season, so I'm not exactly clamoring to see him back at the moment, especially considering he wasn't the most interesting character.  Will he find another Eva this season?  There aren't many options for someone of that archetype.  I could see him trying to Godfather his way through the season but be on the outs at some point, like Boston Rob was on WaW.  He's got almost no shot.

Kamilla Karthigesu - 48
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 4
Yes, I actually want to see Kamilla back, but I wasn't counting on it with Kyle.  They'll likely be put on different starting tribes, however, but if they both make it to the merge, Kyle better do everything in his power to help her.  Although I could definitely see if they both make the merge, that putting a target on both of their backs.  But Kamilla is one of the smarter players in recent history.  I could see it.  If she did win, she would tie Jeremy Collins (29-31) in the quickest return from the game to a winning season.  Boston Rob also won two seasons after he played, but his winning game was his fourth time playing. 

And there are two players on 49 who are also on 50, who I did see who they are, but I won't spoil it here.  But at this point, I would give each of their "want to see" scores a 1 and a chances of winning also a 1, because no one has won any season playing back-to-back.  

And as previously promised, here are 5 duos I'm excited to see interact:

- Christian and Kamilla
Or Christian with anyone smart.  I want to see them decode a really tough puzzle together.  That'd be fun.  

- Coach and Q
Can you imagine the chaos?  I bet Coach will make Q his dragon if the opportunity arises.

- Colby and Jonathan
The OG challenge beast and the New Era challenge beast.  I know Jonathan must look up to Colby, so this would be cool to see.  I know Jonathan is good friends with Boston Rob, so this is a natural fit.

- Cirie and Devens 
Or Charlie, Christian, really any likable younger man.  I bet she'll bond with someone like that.  

- Aubry and Emily
I bet they will form an instant connection if given the chance.  Let's hope they are.  

And lastly, just for organization's sake, here's everyone ranked by their chances of winning:

1's: 
Stephanie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Mike White
Jonathan Young
Q Burdette
Kyle Fraser

2's: 
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Colby Donaldson
Ozzy Lusth
Coach Wade
Chrissy Hofbeck
Angelina Keeley
Dee Valladares
Joe Hunter

3's: 
Christian Hubicki
Rick Devens
Emily Flippen
Charlie Davis
Tiffany Ervin

4's: 
Cirie Fields
Aubry Bracco
Genevieve Mushaluk
Kamilla Karthigesu

And I did not give out any 5's.  Well, it's hard to figure out what each player's threat levels are going to be like coming into this.  And I didn't really want to hand out any 5's because that's basically giving away my winner pick.  Anyway, I'll come back and add the players from 49 once that is over, and probably do another post or two about this cast before the season even airs.  

My Thoughts and Grades on the Seahawks 2025 Draft Class and 54-Man Roster Prediction

 The 2025 Draft has concluded, and I think the Seahawks had a very solid draft.  They addressed positions of need, and I think this team will be very competitive this season.  I'm going to go over each draft pick, my brief thoughts, and give a letter grade, and finish with some final thoughts.  I am going to be a bit on the harsher side with my grading, so be forewarned.

Afterwards, I'll predict a rough idea of the 54-man roster.  Likely going to be very wrong in some spots, but I'll do my best.

Round 1 Pick 18: Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
Very solid pick.  It's not particularly exciting nor flashy, but it's what we needed.  We can only hope he adjuts to the NFL and doesn't rack up a ton of penalties.  We need to run the ball more, and Grey will help with that.  I think Grey was projected more as a late first-rounder, so we could've maybe traded down and gotten something from it.
Grade: B-

Round 2 Pick 35: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
My favorite pick of the draft.  He was often mocked as a late first-rounder, so this was a steal.  Smart of John to trade up to snag him here while he was still available.  I can't wait to see the backside defense of Love and Emmanwori.
Grade: A

Round 2 Pick 50: Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami
The first real headscratcher for me.  We already have two very solid tight ends in Fant and Barner.  Perhaps Fant will be a cap casualty in training camp since he is paid over $10 million a season.  I didn't think we particularly needed tight end help, but we'll see.  I've heard decent things, but we already have an emerging stud in Barner.  Perhaps we can have what the Patriots had in the early 2010s with Gronk and Hernandez.  
Grade: C

Round 3 Pick 92: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
It will remain to be seen how good this pick is.  I think it would be foolish of us to think Jalen will match what Russ did in his career, our last QB drafted this high.  Let's hope he can grow and learn from the sidelines and not get pressed into action too early.  I think that's why we got Lock as well.  I'm ok with this pick, but I think the odds are more likely that Jalen doesn't have success with the Hawks than he does.
Grade: C-

Round 5 Pick 142: Rylie Mills, DT, Notre Dame
Don't know too much about him, but I know we always need nose tackle depth.  We'll be hoping Byron Murphy takes a big step in his second year, but Mills is good insurance.  
Grade: C+

Round 5 Pick 166: Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State
One of the two WRs of this draft is going to be a hit and shine in training camp, and I bet it'll be Horton.  WR was definitely a position of need, at least where we needed depth.  
Grade: B

Round 5 Pick 175: Robbie Ouzts, FB/TE, Alabama
Are we going back to old school I formation football?  Perhaps for some plays.  If so, I'm down.  He could also play special teams, so this is a very solid pick.  But the thing is, we already had Brady Russell, who is switching to FB as well.  I think only one can make the roster.
Grade: B-

Round 6 Pick 192: Bryce Cabeldue, G, Kansas
Yes!  More midwestern O-Linemen!  Hey, he might be a steal.  Likely won't outplay Grey, but imagine if they both end up starting.  I will never hate an O-Line pick unless we have too many of them, which will never happen.
Grade: B+

Round 7 Pick 223: Damien Martinez, RB, Miami
This reminds me of another late-round running back, ALSO out of the University of Miami.  That being Travis Homer.  He was a very good special-teams player for a while.  But I think Martinez will be more of a third-string/third-down back.  We'll see.  Can't hate a late running back selection.
Grade: B

Round 7 Pick 234: Mason Richman, OL, Iowa
Our THIRD midwestern offensive lineman!  Love it.  Odds are only one of Cabledue or Richman make the team, unless they maybe push Bradford out (honestly, kinda hope they do).  
Grade: B

Round 7 Pick 238: Ricky White III, WR, UNLV
Like I mentioned with Horton, one of these guys is going to make a splash in training camp, I bet.  It might not be Ricky White, but you never know.  
Grade: B+

Overall Grade/GPA: 2.81 (B- average)

Overall, very solid draft for John Schneider and company.  I didn't hate a single pick.  In all likelihood, maybe 7 or so (out of 11) of them make the team this season, with perhaps 3 or 4 playing multiple significant seasons with the team.  But it's how significant those seasons end up being that will determine how successful this draft truly is.  

Just for funsies, I'll also predict the 54-man roster and possible practice squad:

QB (3): Darnold, Lock, Milroe
RB/FB (6): Walker, Charbonnet, Martinez, McIntosh, Holani, Ouzts
TE (3): Barner, Arroyo, Saubert
WR (5): Kupp, Smith-Njigba, Valdez-Scantling, Horton, Bobo
OL (10): Oluwatimi, Sundell, Cabledue, Richman, Haynes, Laumea, Zabel, Cross, Lucas, Jerrell
26

DL (7): Lawrence, Mills, Williams, Murphy, Reed, Morris, Pili
LB/Edge (7): Hall, Jones, Knight, Mafe, Nwosu, Smith, Sheriff
CB (5): Witherspoon, Woolen, Pritchett, Jobe, Jean-Charles
S (5): Bryant, Love, Emmanwori, Reed, Finley/Bell
24

ST (3): Myers, Dickson, Stoll

Notable cuts: Noah Fant, Dareke Young, Anthony Bradford

Practice Squad candidates: 
Ricky White, WR
Cody White, WR
Hall, CB
Bohanna, DT
Aumavae-Laulu, G
O'Connell, LB
Thomas, LB

I'm probably way off with the numbers regarding positions, but it should be fun for me to see how close I get!  Training camp is still three months away... sigh.  But it should be hear before we know it! :D