My 2011 Seattle Mariners Preview and Predictions

The Seattle Mariners enter this season with little hope but all the while trying to remain optimistic. Last year, the Mariners were picked by many to contend for the AL West title, only to fall flat, finish in last place in the division with one of the worst offenses in the DH era. Very little changes were made in the offseason, with the focus on winning three, four, or even five years from now rather than this upcoming season. They did however hire a new manager in former Cleveland Indians skipper Eric Wedge, which in my opinion is a safe pick. Obviously, this is a team in the rebuilding process looking to further stock its farm system and contend a few years from now. However, I believe with the low expectations and the infusion of young talent, this team will surprise. Here’s a look at each of the players expected to make the 25 man roster:

Catchers:
Miguel Olivo – Now entering his 2^nd stint as a Mariner, Miguel Olivo is looking to redeem himself after being labeled a bust following the trade in which the Mariners acquired him almost seven years ago. He was one of the “notable” acquisitions this offseason, but figures to have an average season offensively at best.

Adam Moore – A young, still-developing player, Adam Moore is entering this year the backup after starting the year last season as the starter. He will learn from Olivo and others and try to improve his game. He will be given opportunities to start and hopefully will make progress.

Infielders:
Chone Figgins – Affectionately nicknamed “Figgy”, Chone Figgins makes the switch back to his familiar position of third base following the departure of Jose Lopez. Hopefully his switch to his familiar position will also mean an improvement in his offense, which struggled last year. Perhaps he will get a few leadoff spots this year, especially if Ichiro gets hurt.

Brendan Ryan – Brendan Ryan is the “replacement” for the aforementioned Lopez and he will get the nod at 2^nd base, at least for the start of the season. However, if Ryan struggles and Dustin Ackley, one of the Mariners top prospects, does well in AAA ball, Ackley will take over the position later this season. Brendan Ryan will need to show his versatility as well as consistency in order to stay with the ballclub the entire season.

Justin Smoak – Justin was acquired last season in the blockbuster trade for Cliff Lee and really didn’t show the fans much of what he is capable of. Smoak is an above average glovesman at first base, but his bat will really have to shine in order for him to be our first baseman of the future. If he continues to swing a cold bat, the Mariners will look at other options, which might even include giving utility infielder Matt Tuiasosopo a few starts at first.

Matt Tuiasosopo – Tui this year will be our utility player and will provide spot starts at all infield positions, as well as occasionally in left field. The Mariners will look for him to have a steady bat and decent glovework and be the next Mark McLemore, or even Willie Bloomquist. He will probably also be used on occasion in pinch-running scenarios.

Jack Wilson – Jack is recovering from yet another injury and will be given the starting spot at shortstop yet again. However, this spring, manager Eric Wedge experimented with him at 2^nd base to good results, although Jack has played his entire career at shortstop. I expect Jack to have a decent, but quiet season.

Josh Wilson – Not related to the above, Josh Wilson is another utility player that will get the occasional spot start or so. He actually filled in really nicely last year when others were struggling or were hurt. However, come later in the season, perhaps when Ackley is about to be called up, either Josh Wilson or Tui will have to go to make room.

Outfielders
Milton Bradley – Milton struggled last year with injuries and the media, however, many are looking for him to regain some of the success he had in Texas when he made the All-Star team. I also expect him to get the occasional spot start at Designated Hitter to rest his legs. If he behaves himself and plays well, he will see a lot of action. If he doesn’t, the Mariners will be quick to release him.

Franklin Gutierrez – One of the most gifted outfielders athletically in all of baseball, Franklin Gutierrez is more known for his glovework than his bat, but even his bat is decent. In order for him to truly cement his spot in centerfield, his bat will need to improve even more and even become a leader on this team.

Michael Saunders – Saundy—ok, scratch that nickname—Michael Saunders, I mean to say, is going to compete with Bradley for playing time in left field. He has shown modest hitting in fielding, but he needs to improve a lot more in order to be a part of this team’s future. If he struggles, he could be shipped out in a mid-season deal either this season or next.

Ichiro Suzuki – A consummate professional, Ichiro is as consistent as they come. He’ll probably have his typical April struggles, but he will more than likely turn in another 200 hit season. I even think, with the tragedy that has happened in his home country of Japan that he will be inspired to play even better and will put up great numbers.

Designated Hitter

Jack Cust – Another offseason acquisition, Jack Cust, formerly of the Oakland A’s, will be given most of the time at designated hitter, and I feel he will benefit greatly this season with the help of the short porch in left field. I expect him to put up a 2009 version of Russell Branyan type season and perhaps lead this team in home runs.

Pitchers

Starting Rotation

Felix Hernandez – After winning the Cy Young Award last year, there really is no limit to how great Felix can be. He will undoubtedly have another spectacular season and with more offensive support, should get 15 wins. He should also get his second all-star nod after being snubbed last year.

Jason Vargas – Many see him as a #3-5 starter, but the M’s will be forced to rely on him as the #2 starter. However, Jason did well that season and I think he will fill in nicely as the #2 this year.

Doug Fister – Fister uses his 6’8” frame to his advantage, but his fastball lacks velocity (only tops out in the low 90s at best) and he has struggled with control at times. He should have another solid season, though.

Erik Bedard – Finally healthy again, Erik Bedard looks to finally prove to this organization the trade to get him wasn’t a complete fiasco. Hopefully he can stay healthy, because if he does, he is an above-average pitcher that can go on a hot streak.

Michael Pineda – The Mariners top pitching prospect, Pineda looks to have secured the #5 spot in the rotation and hopefully will give fans a reason to see him in our future rotation. M’s Fans hope he can be the #2 to Felix’s #1 down the line.

Spot Starters/Long Relievers

Luke French/David Pauley/Aaron Laffey – I expect these three to have solid seasons, and one or two may even take a starting rotation spot if one of the above struggles or gets injured. It’s nice to know we have a few guys that can make emergency starts if need be.

Relievers

David Aardsma – Aardsma will start this year hurt, but will more than likely get his closer spot back when he is 100% healthy. However, he will not have as great of a season as years past, given the fact the Mariners tried trading him this past offseason.

Cesar Jimenez – Jimenez will be the lefty in the pen this year used mainly against left-handed bats. However, the Mariners also have Luke French, another lefty, who could fill that role should Jimenez struggle.

Brandon League – Brandon has been known to blow games and give up big hits at the worst times. Despite that, he will be given the closer’s job to start the season and I don’t expect him to do extremely well.

Josh Lueke – He is constantly surrounded by controversy since he was arrested for sexual harassment a while back. However, if fans can put that behind them and focus on his playing ability, they may see a setup man/closer in the making.

Outlook:
With all that said, I expect the Mariners to surprise people this year. They won’t win the AL West, but they will do better than most people expect them to. I predict the AL West will have the smallest amount of games that separate the first place and last place teams. The Mariners will probably finish in last, but might only be 10-15 games back. Here’s my predictions for the AL West:

AL West
Texas Rangers 88-74
Oakland A’s 85-77
Anaheim Angels 81-81
Seattle Mariners 77-85

And now for my entire baseball predictions, including the postseason:
* = Wild Card team

AL West
Texas Rangers
Oakland A’s
Anaheim Angels
Seattle Mariners

AL Central
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers

AL East
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees*
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays

NL West
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants*
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres

NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals

Playoffs:
ALDS:
Red Sox over Rangers
Yankees over Twins
ALCS:
Red Sox over Yankees

NLDS:
Phillies over Giants
Rockies over Cardinals
NLCS:
Phillies over Rockies

World Series:
Red Sox over Phillies in 7

There you have it folks. I hope you enjoyed this nastily exhaustingly long preview and predictions of not only the Mariners, but all of Major League Baseball. I’m looking forward to a fun and exciting season. PLAY BALL!