Survivor 43 Preview and Predictions

I blogged about Survivor's 41 and 42 on another platform, and I thought I'd go here for Survivor 43.  The cast has now been fully revealed, and I definitely have some opinions on them.  I'm going to go through each of the Survivors, picking a range of placement that I think they will fall in.  I'll even provide a few comparables of Survivors I think they'll be like.  I'll come back throughout the season and update each castaway as they're voted out and see if they fell in the range or not.

I will also make a winner pick.  My winner pick for 41 was Evie (eh) and my winner pick for 42 was Maryanne (Spot on!).  So I'm 1 for 2 so far.  

Cassidy Clark, 26, Designer from Austin, TX
Comparables: Sydney Segal, Tori Meehan
Cassidy seems to be another one of those pretty white girls that'll finish around the time of the merge.  Or she could be an early boot if she doesn't integrate herself on her tribe well early.  But I'll lean towards the former.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
WRONG, 2nd
Yikes, I severely underestimated Cassidy, as I'm sure many others did.

Cody Assenmacher, 35, Elevator Salesman from Honolulu, HI
Comparables: Aaron Meredith, Jay Starlett
Cody's definitely got a big personality, and that'll either work for or against him.  I don't see him targeted too soon unless he does something dumb, which I must admit, is a legit possibility.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
CORRECT, 6th
I did not see him being as good of a player as he was, but he was taken out before the end, which I predicted.

Dwight Moore, 22, Graduate Student from Collierville, TN
Comparables: Jacob Derwin, Jairus Robinson
I'm getting early boot vibes from him, hence the above comparables.  I think he's going to have a tough time forming bonds, and if his tribe struggles at all, he could be a goner.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 12th
He did slightly better than I thought he would.  

Elie Scott, 31, Clinical Psychologist from Salt Lake, UT
Comparables: Aubrey Bracco, Angelina Keely
Elie might not want to reveal her occupation as to not seem threatening.  I think she could make it far.  But winning?  That's another story.  Not sure if she seems like the type that can build up enough of a resumé.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 13th
I did not see Elie overplaying and putting herself out there that much.  I thought she'd be a bit sneakier.

Geo Bustamante, 35, Project Manager from Honolulu, HI
Comparables: Romeo Escobar, Joe Mena
Those comparables are quite different, but I think Geo's going to be like a bit of each of them.  He's going to let others make moves like Romeo but be a bit loud like Joe.  Not the best combination.  
Predicted finish: 13th-8th
WRONG, 14th
I was right in that he wasn't going to be the best player, but I actually gave him slightly too much credit.

James Jones, 37, Event Planner from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Rocksroy Bailey, Deshawn Radden
I think James will be a combination of Rocks and Deshawn.  His age is closer to Rocksroy, but I think he's going to ingratiate himself better like Deshawn.  But how will that means he fares?  Probably somewhere in between those two.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 10th
James was in a good spot but should've played a bit quieter early on.  He was seen running the show with Karla when he should've been seen as her right hand man.

Jeanine Zheng, 24, UX Designer from San Francisco, CA
Comparables: Jenny Kim, So Kim
I don't see production/editing wanting us to get too close to her.  Too often, women of Asian descent have gotten an early boot and been screwed over by their tribe.  I could be totally wrong.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
WRONG, 11th
Another one I didn't miss by too much on.  I definitely underestimated her.  I had her and Morriah swapped in terms of how well they did.

Jesse Lopez, 30, Political Science PHD student from Durham, NC
Comparables: Tony Vlachos, Wardog DaSilva
This is my winner pick for 43.  I just have a good feeling about him.  We have never had a Hispanic man win Survivor.  Time for that to change.  As for his comparables, I see him being like Tony but quieter, and like Wardog perhaps in challenges but also with scheming.  
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 4th
And he would have won if he could've made fire even quicker than Gabler.

Justine Brennan, 29, Cyber Security Saleswoman from Marina Del Ray, CA
Comparables: Stephanie Gonzalez, Alexis Maxwell
Justine is one that is hard to place.  She could be a very early boot or a mid-merge boot.  I think the latter, she seems to have a decent head on her shoulders.  
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
WRONG, 17th
I did say she could be a very early boot.  But then I said she could be a mid-merge boot and went with that.  Oops.

Karla Cruz Godoy, 28, Educational Project Manager from Newark, DE
Comparables: Lydia Meredith, Genie Chen
Karla is another LGBTQ player, and we haven't really had one that's done particularly well recently, including Evie (41) and Elaine (IotI).  She could buck the trend, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
WRONG, 5th
I underestimated Karla.  She was great player.  And she did buck the trend.

Lindsay Carmine, 42, Pediatric Nurse from Downington, PA
Comparables: Heather Aldret, Chrissy Hofbeck
Let's hope for Lindsay's sake she doesn't get purpled like Heather did.  I could potentially see her as a losing finalist like Chrissy, but no better.  She'll likely not be a threat to anyone, so if she can survive the pre-merge, she can make it far.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 15th
And she could not survive the pre-merge due to being too paranoid.  I think most Survivor fans had her getting at least somewhat far.

Mike Gabler, 52, Heart Valve Specialist from Meridian, ID
Comparables: Brad Reese, Chicken Morris
Guys like Mike don't tend to last very long, but we saw another "Mike" get all the way to 2nd place last season.  I think that was a bucking of the trend, and I don't think this Mike will last particularly long.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
WRONG, 1st
I could not have been more wrong.  Give it up for the old dudes!  If they can make the merge, nobody considers them threats.  And Gabler did enough at the end to win.

Morriah Young, 28, Teacher from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Chanelle Howell, Lyrsa Torres
Shoutout to Morriah for possibly being the player that I slowly start to think is attractive, like I did with Chanelle.  She seems colorful like Lyrsa, so we'll see how that affects her game.  I think she's around a mid-merge boot.
Predicted finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 18th
Well, I couldn't start developing an attraction because she was the first boot.  Like I said, I had Jeanine and her swapped.

Nneka Ejere, 43, Pharmacist from Weatherford, TX
Comparables: Francesca Hogie, Michaela Bradshaw
Not sure how she'll handle challenges, but if she's at all a liability and her tribe struggles, she won't get to the merge.  It's hard to say with her, but I can't see her getting extremely far.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th
WRONG, 16th
So close, but I give myself a range of 6 spots, so a miss is a miss.  If only Vesi could've done better in challenges early on.  She wasn't in a bad spot.

Noelle Lambert, 25, Paralympian from Manchester, NH
Comparables: Kelly Bruno, Elizabeth Beisel
We've never had a paraplegic get that far on Survivor, but could Noelle be the first?  Kelly Bruno was an early-ish boot, and Chad from Vanuatu was a boot soon after the merge.  We'll see.  She seems cheerful, which could both work for and against her.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th
CORRECT, 8th
Got her right in the middle of my range.  But her disability had little to do with her boot.

Owen Knight, 29, College Admissions Director from New Orelans, LA
Comparables: Woo Hwang, Jonas Otsuji
Owen apparently has applied many times and finally got on.  He also seems to have the support of many past players.  This tells me he will be a fan favorite and do fairly well.  Winning though?  Eh, maybe, but I already predicted Jesse to win.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
CORRECT, 3rd
I did see Owen as a potential losing finalist, so I got that right.  

Ryan Medrano, 24, Warehouse Associate from El Paso, TX
Comparables: Jonathan Young, Danny McCray
Ryan will likely be a physical force and carry his tribe in challenges.  Not as much as Jonathan, but I think even more than Danny.  How will his strategic game play out though?  Hard to say.  Can't see him getting extremely far, though.
Predicted finish: 9th-4th
CORRECT, 9th
I almost gave him too much credit.  He definitely played a game I was expecting, although I thought he'd be slightly more game savvy.

Sami Layadi, 19, Pet Cremator from Las Vegas, NV
Comparables: David Voce, Zach Wurtenberger
Teenagers have not done particularly well in Survivor's history.  They're just too young to adapt.  Sami reminds me of a younger Voce, who himself was an early boot.  If Sami gets really far, I'll be shocked.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
WRONG, 7th
I completely underestimated Sami.  If you can hide your age and play like a 20-year-old, you can get fairly far.

All right, now with those boot ranges, let's put together a boot order that fits everyone's range:

18th: Mike Gabler
17th: Jeanine Zheng
16th: Sami Layadi
15th: Dwight Moore
14th: Nneka Ejere
13th: Carla Cruz Godoy
12th: Geo Bustamante
11th: Cassidy Clark
10th: Justine Brennan
9th: Noelle Lambert
8th: Cody Assenmacher
7th: Morriah Young
6th: Ryan Medrano
5th: James Jones
4th: Owen Knight
3rd: Lindsay Carmine
2nd: Elie Scott
1st: Jesse Lopez

There you have it.  My predicted winner is Jesse.  My backups are Owen and Elie.  Should be a pretty fun season!  Again, I'll come back to this after every episode and update each contestant after they're voted out to see if they fell into my range or not.  I'm generally pretty good at that (right about 60-70% of the time).

Well, I predicted pretty badly for this season.  I only had 6/18 (33%) in their correct range.  Yikes.  Hopefully, I can do better for 44.