2023 Outlook for Seattle Mariners Players

 The 2023 MLB season starts this Thursday, and while I've already made my predictions for the season, I have yet to talk in-depth about my favorite team, the Seattle Mariners.  I'm going to go through each of the players expected to make the Opening Day Roster and say what I expect from them.  I'm later going to use these expectations and give them grades at the All-Star break and at the end of the season.  

PITCHERS
Matt Brash: 
I expect Brash to have an improved 2023, becoming one of our more dominant relievers.  I'd love to see him either be THE guy we use to face tough bats, or be a guy we can stretch out to 2 innings if need be.

Luis Castillo:
Luis will be in his first full season as a Mariner, and he'll be our #1.  I expect Luis to keep us in a lot of low-scoring ball games (think that extra innings game against the Yankees last year).  I would love to see an All-Star nod for him, but not making it wouldn't be the biggest disappointment, either.

Diego Castillo: 
All I want is control from Diego from start to finish.  Now he's going to get wild at times, but his games where he loses control need to be few and far between.  And we cannot afford him to go on streaks (like he did at the start of last year) where his ERA is in the double digits.

Matt Festa:
Festa's a good, all-around reliever and I hope he stays that way.  He's like Brash but without as nasty of stuff.  I'd love to see him close a game or two.  

Chris Flexen: 
It looks like Flexen will start the year in the pen, but will fill in as a starter when necessary (double-headers, injuries, etc.). This will be HUGE.  As long as Flex doesn't let when or how he's pitching affect him, I'd look for him to be one of our more important pitchers this season.  He could also be a very valuable trade piece at the deadline.

Logan Gilbert:
Logan started out red-hot last April.  I was thinking Cy Young.  But alas, he cooled off.  I'm not expecting Logan to be THAT good, but to be near it and to be near it for longer would be ideal.  Imagine if Logan shows some overall signs of improvement, and is only the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on our team?  Wow...

Marco Gonzales: 
Because of the acquisition of pitching and promoting through the minors, Marco has gone from our #1 to our #5 in just three seasons.  Crazy.  And he's handled it like the ultimate professional.  I expect Marco to be one of the league's best #5 starters, consistently putting out quality (or near quality) starts of 6IP, 3 runs or less.  

Trevor Gott: 
I'm not expecting a ton from Gott, a newcomer.  I just don't want him to suck.  Be on par with Festa and Castillo, and I'll be happy.

George Kirby:
Kirby arrived after Gilbert, but his ceiling is higher.  I expect George to improve on 2022 and be our second best pitcher (if not best) in his first FULL season (he started in May last season).  I wouldn't be surprised to see an All-Star nod for George, which would be reason to give him an A at the break.  

Andres Munoz: 
It'll be interesting to see how Servais handles Munoz this season.  Hopefully he doesn't put too much on him, like he seemed to do in the playoffs.  If Munoz's stuff can be just as lethal as last season, I'll be happy.

Penn Murfee:
Unfortunately Penn had the distinction of being the pitcher that allowed the Astros go-ahead home run in the 18th inning of game 3 of the ALDS.  I don't think too many fans hold a grudge against him.  I hope he can shake that and that it doesn't affect how he pitches in 2023.

Robbie Ray:
Robbie has been working on a new pitch, I believe.  We need him to have a better 2023 than he did 2022.  He doesn't need to be a Cy Young candidate, just someone good enough to be in our Top 3 starters (which he wasn't last year).  

Paul Sewald: 
Sewald was our defacto closer last season, and he wasn't perfect, but he was solid.  I hope some of the burden is taken off of his shoulders and he's given some lower-impact innings.


CATCHERS
Tom Murphy: 
The Murph is back!  He was our starter, but now he'll be backing up The Big Dumper.  I expect Murph to put up solid numbers and start at least 40-60 games, hopefully.  

Cal Raleigh:
The Big Dumper had such a great 2022 season, the highlight of course being his playoff-clinching walk-off home run.  If he can improve his average slightly and still hit dingers, I'll be happy.

INFIELDERS
J.P. Crawford:
J.P. has had up-and-down seasons the last few years.  I hope his average can climb (with the ban of the shift) and he can hit well from the bottom of the lineup.  I hope he hits well enough for Servais to consider moving him up to 1 or 2, but I won't hold my breath.  I also want his defense to improve well enough to earn him a Gold Glove nomination.

Ty France:
Let's have a season where Ty plays fully healthy, ok?  The bigger bases will help with avoiding collisions.  I do expect Ty to have a great year if he can stay healthy.  A repeat All-Star appearance would be great, but the Mariners haven't had many of those in recent memory.  

Eugenio Suarez:
Suarez had as great of season as we could've hoped in 2022.  I hope him playing in the WBC doesn't mean he tires out at the end of the year.  If he can continue to be a force in the middle of our lineup, I'll be happy.

Kolten Wong: 
Wong is more of a defensive player than an offensive powerhouse, so I won't be counting on his bat too much.  But I would love to see his average jump a bit from last season.  I'm also looking forward to all the sweet double plays he and J.P. will turn.  

OUTFIELDERS
Sam Haggerty: 
"Swaggerty" was a vital tool for Servais last season, and I hope he continues to be.  We will likely see him take over for Hernandez in the outfield late in games (like he did for Winker last year).  I also hope to see him play some more second base, a position he is capable of handling.

Teoscar Hernandez:
Teoscar will hopefully be a force in the middle of our lineup, much like Suarez last season.  I'm looking forward to seeing him playing alongside his DR countryman in Julio.  Hopefully his defense won't be a liability and we'll see some clutch knocks from him.

Jarred Kelenic: 
Listen, JK seems to be as ready as ever.  He had a FANTASTIC spring.  He seems focused and locked in.  We know he has speed, defense, and a cannon arm.  If he can hit above .200 (.220+?) and hit dingers, (on pace for 20-30), he will be a consistent starter.  There's nothing more Mariner fans want than to see JK succeed in a big way.  

AJ Pollock: 
AJ will likely start against lefties in left field, giving Kelenic a breather every now and then.  He also might get a start at DH if no one else needs it.  I hope he can provide a veteran bat, hit somewhat decently, and give Servais a reason to keep him in the lineup.

Julio Rodriguez: 
Man, what a year he had last season.  Can we expect bigger things in 2023?  Why not?  Julio is the face of this team, and we are counting on him to be an even bigger force in 2023.  Provided he plays decently, a repeat 2023 All-Star appearance is a given, considering he is now a household name.  

Well, there you have it.  I know I didn't get too much into numbers, but I didn't want to just to get disappointed.  I know I also didn't predict them to make the playoffs, but if most of these guys can meet my reasonable expectations for them, I see no reason why they cannot prove me wrong.  I'm stoked and I'm looking forward to a great 2023 season.  GO MARINERS!!!!

My 2023 MLB Predictions

 It's about that time of year!  The MLB season officially gets underway later this month, so I got to get my predictions out.  

Like last year, I'm going to predict the order of each division (no win or loss totals), the wild card teams, and I'll run through the playoffs.  Last year, I correctly picked the Mariners to end their playoff drought, and I even got their playoff seeding right (#5)!  I'll also pick the team leaders for statistical categories and All-Stars.  Let's hope I do better in that department this year.  Just a refresher: I had Frazier leading in average, JP leading in stolen bases, Ray leading in ERA, and Winker, Haniger, and Ray as All-Stars.  Oops!  Without further ado, the 2023 MLB predicted standings:

NL EAST
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies*
3. New York Mets*
4. Miami Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
Comment: In the highly competitive NL East (at least with the first three teams), I have the Braves winning the division.  They lost Dansby Swanson but still have a great core with Riley, Acuna, and Harris.  The Phillies will be a strong wild-card team after acquiring Trea Turner.  The Mets did get Verlander, but he shows his age, and the Mets take a small step back.  

NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Comment: This is likely the worst division in baseball.  The Brewers and Cardinals will fight for the division, but the Cards have too much firepower with Goldschmidt and Arenado.  The retirements of Pujols and Yadi will open up spots for younger players to emerge.  The Cubs will be slightly better, and could possibly challenge for a wild card spot. 

NL WEST
1. San Diego Padres
2. Los Angeles Dodgers*
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Comment: My biggest surprise pick (standing-wise) is the Padres winning the NL West over the Dodgers.  The Dodgers will hold the division for most of the season, but a combination of a late Padres run and a Dodgers late collapse results in the Padres winning the division.  The Dodgers will still get a wild card.  The Giants will be decent again, but like the Cubs may still be a year away.

AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays*
3. Baltimore Orioles*
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Boston Red Sox
Comment: The Yankees win the division... again.  The Blue Jays again claim the top wild-card seed.  The Orioles leapfrog the Rays and claim the final wild-card spot.  The Orioles have a young core that will only get better.  The Red Sox lost Bogearts and well... they need to rebuild.

AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Guardians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Comment: The Guardians have a solid young core and aren't going anywhere.  The Twins should compete and will challenge for a wild card spot, but it won't be enough.  The White Sox will feel the loss of Jose Abreu.  

AL WEST
1. Houston Astros
2. Texas Rangers*
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: I hate to say it, but the Mariners are missing the playoffs.  I hope I'm wrong.  I think the Rangers signing DeGrom and getting Bruce Bochy as manager were huge.  I don't think the Mariners did enough this offseason, and it will come back to bite them.  Of course, the Astros aren't going anywhere, unfortunately.

So, the 2023 playoffs!  Perhaps a few surprise teams?  No Mariners... let's hope if they miss the playoffs (like I'm predicting) that it doesn't start a new drought for the team.

NL WILD CARD
(6) Mets at (3) Cardinals: Cardinals win
(5) Phillies at (4) Dodgers: Phillies win

AL WILD CARD 
(6) Orioles at (3) Guardians: Guardians win
(5) Rangers at (4) Blue Jays: Blue Jays win

NL DIVISIONAL ROUND
(5) Phillies at (1) Braves: Braves win
(3) Cardinals at (2) Padres: Padres win

AL DIVISIONAL ROUND
(4) Blue Jays at (1) Astros: Astros win
(3) Guardians at (2) Yankees: Guardians win

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Padres vs. Braves: Braves win
Guardians vs. Astros: Guardians win

WORLD SERIES
Guardians vs. Braves: Braves win in 7

Yep, a rematch of the 1995 World Series, 28 years later.  The Braves win again.  Now, who I think will lead certain categories for the M's:

Average: JP Crawford (resurgent season)
Home Runs: Julio Rodriguez
RBI: Ty France
Stolen Bases: Julio Rodriguez
Wins: Luis Castillo
Strikeouts: Robbie Ray
ERA: George Kirby
Saves: Paul Sewald
All-Stars: Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby

I'm going to do a further look at the M's, what I expect from each player, and perhaps go in depth as to why I think they'll miss the playoffs (barely).  Look for that soon!

So this is Brian from late 2023, the MLB season is now in the playoffs and I wanted to point out the biggest things I got right and the biggest things I got wrong:

Biggest things I got right:
- Mariners missing the playoffs.  I wish I wasn't right on this...!  Sigh.
- The Texas Rangers finishing 2nd to the Astros and snagging a wild card, along with two other AL East teams.  
- The Baltimore Orioles making the playoffs--although I did not see them winning the East!
- The Dodgers losing their first playoff series--again.  Although, I had them losing the wild card instead of losing in the divisional round.

Biggest things I got wrong: 
- Guardians winning their division and the AL Pennant--Whoops!
- Cardinals winning the NL Central--but I wasn't the only one to get this wrong
- The Padres winning the NL West over the Dodgers.  Hey, they lost a lot of close games, if you switch those, you basically get what I predicted.
- The Yankees winning the AL East while the Rays finish 4th.  Basically switch those two. 

SURVIVOR 44 FOUR WORD GAME

 Just like I did with Survivor 43, I'm going to do a Four Word Game for each player on Survivor 44 after each episode.  These four words will succinctly sum up their previous episode or what they need to accomplish moving forward.  Or it will be a comment on something I noticed about them.  At the end, I re-rank all of the remaining players in terms of how likely they are to win.  

I'll be going in order of their previous rank each week, from lowest to highest, saving the people voted out/eliminated until the end.  In this first one, their order is based on my pre-season ranking. 

After Episode 1 Four Word Game:

Heidi: No ordinary older woman
We haven't seen much from older women on Survivor in terms of skills, but Heidi showed her skills with fire-making.  She's proving to be an asset to her tribe, which is something that definitely helps people survive the pre-merge.  Heidi's definitely getting farther than I thought.

Sarah: Can she cash in?
Sarah earned a new advantage, the Inheritance Advantage, which would mean she would get all Idols and advantages played at a particular tribal council.  If she plays it right, she could really cash in.  My question is does this have to be played before or after all advantages?  I don't recall them saying.  If it's before, and knowledge of this advantage got out, this is a terrible idea because no one would want to play their idol or advantage.  But we'll see if Sarah can cash in.  She definitely showed more game acumen than I thought she'd have.

Carson: In surprisingly good spot
We quickly saw a younger person's alliance form on the Tika tribe with Carson, Helen, and Sarah.  That leaves Yam-Yam and Carolyn on the outs.  Hopefully for Carson's sake that group holds if they go to tribal council.  He's already doing better than I thought.

Jaime Lynn: First successful SID... congrats?
I know, abbreviations are a bit of a cheat... anyway, congrats to Jaime Lynn for going down in Survivor history as the first person to play a successful Shot in the Dark.  Unfortunately, that just makes her look paranoid and someone that can't handle the intensity of voting/tribal council.  

Kane: Damage control to do
Kane voted for Brandon after forming what seemed to be a guy's alliance on the Ratu tribe.  He seems easily swayed, so that doesn't bode well for his game.  We also didn't see much from his perspective.  I can't say this was a great start for him.

Matt B: Unlucky, but also lucky
Matt B had way more confessionals than anyone on his tribe, which I thought was interesting.  He had no luck on "Advantage Island" and drew two lose-a-votes.  Ouch.  However, he seems to have really lucked out in his tribe placement.  Not only did casting put him on the strongest tribe, but he was also put on a tribe with Frannie, with whom he seems to have quite the connection.  

Danny: Challenge success extremely vital
I didn't see Danny form any bonds with anyone.  I'm worried if Soka loses, he'll be on the outs.  If Soka can pull a Luvu (from 41) and not go to tribal in the pre-merge, that would be most ideal for Danny.

Frannie: Showmance means big decision
Frannie seems to be forming a showmance with Matt, which is great for them and great for Survivor.  They're going to have to make a big decision at some point, though.  Either they stick together through thick and thin as long as possible, or they turn on each other.  We'll see.  Also, Frannie got a mat chat, which the three winners of the new era have gotten so far....

Joshua: Purpled podiatrist played perfectly
Not that we saw too much of Joshua, but I couldn't resist the alliteration.  We need to see more of the Soka tribe in general.

Claire: I fear purple edit
Claire didn't get a whole lot of content despite the 2-hour episode.  She seems spunky and capable enough, but forming those bonds will be critical.  Can we even see that, though?

Brandon: An extremely messy start
Wow.  First Brandon flip-flops on showing the key to Maddy.  Then on showing it to the rest of the tribe.  Then he receives the most votes at Tribal, only to save himself with an Idol.  First legitimate successful idol play of the new era.  He needs to cool his game down and lower his threat level.  Form bonds with Kane and either Lauren or Jaime Lynn.  

Helen: Smart queen reigns supreme
Helen dominated the first puzzle of the game, then she dominated the Savvy "ring" puzzle.  She had Carson's help both times, but she seemed to be leading them both times.  I do worry about her becoming a target for being too good at puzzles, but we'll see.

Carolyn: Carolyn the Crazy Lady
Perhaps the elements and lack of food are already having an effect.  She had the very first confessional of the season, so I can't see her leaving too soon.  But how can someone or a group of people work with her and trust her?  She'll certainly need to reign it in...

Yam-Yam: Be a tribe asset
Yam-Yam is technically on the outs, considering there's the younger alliance that he's not in.  However, if he can continue to show his value to the tribe, he can outlast Carolyn and possibly even have the younger alliance turn on each other.

Matthew GM: Got that winner's edit
Mat chat?  Check.  A ton of early confessionals?  Check.  Backstory already?  Check.  Matthew is checking all the boxes for a winner's edit.  He played his Shot in the Dark, which smartly made it so he didn't have to decide on the vote.  It's a very interesting strategy that allows you to see where others are so you can react and choose which side.

Lauren: Recover from the lie
Lauren lied about getting the Bank Your Vote advantage, which Matthew discovered after Claire told him at the challenge.  Hopefully, she can recover and tell Matthew she just didn't take the slip with her.  Or come clean and try to work with him (would probably be a better choice).  I hate that my winner pick was a name brought up at the first tribal council, but she didn't end up getting any votes.

And now, to our departed players...

Bruce: Physical health, safety paramount
Bruce showed what players still need to learn: It's not worth putting your body on the line to win a challenge.  Unless you're absolutely on the bottom and it's an immunity challenge.  However, this was a reward challenge Bruce hurt himself at.  For flint, a pot, and a machete.  Wow.  And all tribes ended up getting it anyway.  It sucks for Bruce to leave that way, but let this be a lesson to future Survivor players: Take care of yourself first, then your tribe.  

Maddy: Careful who you mistrust
Early on, if you and another player don't vibe and don't trust each other.... well, that's not good.  Maddy needed to do damage control with Brandon, especially after he got the Idol.  But she instead focused on targeting him, hoping he wouldn't play it.  Whoops...

All right, now for new power rankings!  This will be interesting.  The parentheses show how much they've risen or fallen from my pre-season power rankings.

16. Jaime Lynn (-2)
15. Kane (-2)
14. Carolyn (-10)
13. Danny (-3)
12. Brandon (-6)
11. Carson (+4)
10. Heidi (+7)
9. Yam-Yam (-6)
8. Lauren (-7)
7. Claire (0)
6. Joshua (+2)
5. Sarah (+11)
4. Matt B (+8)
3. Frannie (+6)
2. Helen (+3)
1. Matthew G.M. (+1)

Biggest Rise: Sarah (+11!)
Biggest Fall: Carolyn (-10)

Well, that shook things up! I somehow got Frannie and Matt B taking their showmance all the way to the finale.  Interesting.  I have to see more of the Soka and Tika tribes to have a clearer picture, but I feel pretty good about this ranking.  I would bet money the next person voted out is someone ranked 16 through 11.  I'll be updating this every week below each post, so keep scrolling down!

After Episode 2 Four Word Game:

Jaime Lynn: Have Kane on outs
Jaime Lynn will do fine on Ratu so long as she lets others be on the outs.  It looks like that that's Kane at the moment.  We didn't really see her ingratiate herself with Brandon or Lauren, but I think she has a tie to Matthew, at least.

Kane: Made the wrong choice
In Kane's position, there are largely one of two choices.  One, you can go look for an Idol, or two, you can try to work your way back in socially.  He chose the former and I think he chose poorly.  He'll definitely be a target at Ratu's next tribal, if they do go again.

Carolyn: Crazy Carolyn must stay
Apparently.  I knew they wouldn't be showcasing Carolyn this much if she was the third eliminated (and 2nd voted out).  She seems like she is going to have one of the most chaotic games of this new era (maybe ever?).  I appreciate her entertainment factor, but I don't respect her as a player.  She first took the idol bag (all of it, dumb).  She then didn't close it up well, and when the rest of the tribe walked up, they could even see the bag slightly swaying.  But the crazy thing is, they didn't even really suspect her!  I think she has done a good job convincing her tribe she sucks at Survivor.  Maybe too good.

Danny: Handled Idol cage perfectly
Danny showed us how to do it right before Carolyn showed us how not to do it.  His tribe didn't suspect a thing.  Now, will we see him hide the key?  Also, I do think his chances of winning went up, but I don't like how much time he spent away from his tribe.

Brandon: Needs more "quiet" episodes
This episode was great for Brandon.  He didn't viciously attack Kane.  He wasn't mad; he just wanted to get to the bottom of it.  Also, winning the challenge certainly helped.  Apparently, he has a bond with Lauren, but we haven't seen much of it.  

Carson: Chose the long game
Carson had a big decision, and I think he chose to vote out Helen because he was thinking long-term.  I guarantee he envisioned a scenario in the Final 3 with Helen but realized she'd be the Erika to his Xander, and he'd lose to her.  He must also have figured her puzzle prowess wasn't enough to keep her.  I still like his spot, but I worry voting out Helen may result in them going to a lot more tribals. 

Heidi: Underestimated Puerto Rican Queen
Did Sandra get this quiet of an edit in Pearl Islands?  I don't think she did... but I do like her spot.  If she can band together with Joshua and Claire to target the showmance of Matt and Frannie, I like her chances.

Yam-Yam: Smarter than he looks
If Yam-Yam had sided with the younger kids and targeted Carolyn, he'd be next on the chopping block.  Instead, he decided to put his eggs in her basket and try to win over Carson, which they did.  Now, he's maybe in the best spot on the tribe.  

Lauren: Now in great spot?
Who is in the best spot on the Ratu tribe?  Probably Matthew, but one could make an argument for Lauren.  She has an extra vote, and Matthew has now been established as a threat.  My winner pick's chances recover a bit, thank goodness.

Claire: Will target the showmance
Claire seems to be a big-time strategist.  She's definitely going to target Matt and Frannie, if Soka ever goes to tribal council.  I like her making the merge, but unless she cools down her strategizing, I think she will be a target shortly thereafter.

Joshua: The purpled podiatrist player
Joshua has gotten very little content the first two episodes.  That's what happens if your tribe keeps winning, I guess (as we saw with Luvu in 41).  Joshua almost threw the challenge, but he recovered, fortunately for them.  And might I say, man is he ripped. 

Sarah: Now on the bottom
Sucks for Sarah; she's now on the bottom, and if they lose again she's an easy target.  Would Carson have sided with them if Sarah had her vote?  He seemed to be aware of it.  This is why forcing players who go to advantage island to lose their vote is incredibly dumb.  Let it be their choice!

Matt: Probably safe, for now
For some reason in showmances (or potential ones), the woman almost always gets targeted first.  And it's not due to tribe strength usually.  I think Matt will be fine if Soka loses, but I still would worry a bit.  

Frannie: Needs bond with another
Frannie formed a great bond with Matt, but she's likely going to be the target unless she can bond with Claire, Heidi, Danny, or Joshua.  She needs to.

Matthew GM: Damn Jeff asking that!
Matthew's episode was on the verge of being perfect until Jeff asked how Matthew did the snake board so quickly.  Matthew should've lied and said he just felt good that day or something.  I worry Matthew has now established himself as a big threat (since the other tribes heard this, too).

And now onto our departed player, who last week I had ranked 2ND... sigh...

Helen: Should've bonded with Carolyn 
She seemed to listen and put up with Carolyn, but didn't want to work with her.  Let that be a lesson.  Both people voted out so far did not want to work with people they were shown talking to.  At least give them the impression you want to work with them.  

All right new power rankings!  There's definitely going to be a shakeup.  

15. Frannie (-12)
14. Sarah (-9)
13. Kane (+2)
12. Matt B (-8)
11. Joshua (-5)
10. Jaime Lynn (+6)
9. Claire (-2)
8. Brandon (+4)
7. Danny (+6)
6. Carson (+5)
5. Carolyn (+9)
4. Lauren (+4)
3. Heidi (+7)
2. Yam-Yam (+7)
1. Matthew G.M. (0)

Biggest Rise: Carolyn (+9)
Biggest Fall: Helen (Finished 16th, -14) and Frannie (-12)

I decided to include the person eliminated as the biggest fall if I had them ranked high previously.  Anyway, like I said, a shakeup.  I definitely changed my perspective on most players.  In fact, 12 of the remaining 15 players moved at least 4 spots, and 8 of them moved at least 6 spots.  I don't like Carolyn's chances of winning, but I do like her chances of getting far.  Matthew retains the top spot for me, but I was considering giving it to Yam-Yam.  I also would love to give it back to Lauren next time she has a good episode.  I really tried to make the ranking so that the people I feel would be next on the chopping block for their tribes are on the bottom, and people who I think are safe for a while at the top.  

After Episode 3:
Well, I HAD typed out a four-word game for Episode 3 (with more in-depth analysis), but somehow it didn't save and I lost it.  Great.  Well, I'll still do it as best as I can from memory, but I'm not going as in-depth.  And I remember the rankings I had at least.

Frannie: Took initiative, so what? - Claire still went, but at least "Fratt" is still alive
Sarah: At bottom, not lost - She's got work to do though.
Kane: Entertaining, if nothing else - Possible finale goat is entertaining.  Can't see a win with Kane.
Matt B: Made to be fool - A fool in love.  Like Kane, I don't see any shot of winning.
Joshua: Will be forgettable boot - Around merge, I bet.  If he was getting far, he'd be getting bigger edit.
Jaime Lynn: Calm down, plant lady! - And she got duped by Matthew's fake idol.
Brandon: Backstory nice, but troubling - Backstory means someone can now be voted out, usually.
Danny: "Idol handled perfectly," Producers - Bet Jeff and production love how Danny handled it. 
Carson: Becoming a front runner - A lot of focus on Carson.  If any 20Y.O. can do it, it's him.
Carolyn: Still a challenge liability - Struggled a bit in challenges, don't expect any indiv. immunities.
Lauren: Friendship with Jaime key - She's forming a bond with her that may benefit her.
Heidi: Not enough focus, unfortunately - If she was Sandra, we would've heard more from her side.
Yam-Yam: Just a snore machine - Hopefully that won't lead to someone not wanting to work with him.
Matthew GM: Still getting winner's edit. - But that doesn't mean I have to keep him at #1.

And to our departed player:
Claire: Another girl voted early - It's crazy.  They need to go back to 2 tribes, 2 challenges an episode, or BOTH.

And my power rankings.  To be honest, they're a bit different than what I first had.  I decided to focus more on the edit and how players are being shown to us.  

14. Sarah (0)
13. Joshua (-2)
12. Matt B (0)
11. Jaime Lynn (-1)
10. Heidi (-7)
9. Kane (+4)
8. Carolyn (-3)
7. Brandon (+1)
6. Frannie (+9)
5. Danny (+2)
4. Lauren (0)
3. Yam-Yam (-1)
2. Matthew GM (-1)
1. Carson (+5)

Biggest Rise: Frannie (+9)
Biggest Fall: Heidi (-7)

I can't decide what to do with Frannie.  I think her showmance with Matthew makes her a target (plus all the young women being voted out), but she seems to have great game acumen.  She at least has more than her partner Matt.  Heidi fell because we're not seeing enough from her perspective.  Anyone 8-14 I don't see winning based on the edit so far.  I'd bet a ton of money at least one (likely two) will be finale goats, though.  As for Carson, I really feel if any 20-year-old can win Survivor, it's him.  We're seeing a lot from his side and the show is making a clear effort to show him.  

After Episode 4 Four Word Game:

Joshua: Finally, some legit content
Even when his tribe went to tribal in the previous episode, we didn't get much content from Josh.  This time, we did.  Josh smartly used his idol, since on a re-vote he's not allowed to play an idol and Carolyn likely flips back and votes him out (although that would hurt her game a tad).

Matt B: The second in command
I am firmly under the belief that Matt is second in command under Frannie, and that her win equity is higher.  However, come the merge that may mean she is targeted first.  I could see Matt skirting on by, being left out of votes, just like Owen last season.

Jaime Lynn: Win equity not high
Still.  She has two "idols", or so she thinks.  One is fake and one was handed to her, so she can't take credit for either one.  I'm not sure of her chances if her tribe loses immunity, but she does have one real idol.  I just don't see much of a path for her to the end/winning.

Heidi: Finale goat arc rising
To me, Heidi is seeming to be more and more like a finale goat.  I'm just not liking Heidi's chances of winning if she gets to the end.  She'll need a move or two to credit to her name.

Kane: Underrated player in challenges
Kane got zero confessionals this past episode, so there's not much to say.  He sat out of the reward challenge (oddly), but he held his own in the immunity challenge.  He did struggle on the balance beam, but hey, so did Chris in Vanuatu.  I think Kane will maybe be a force in particular individual challenges come the merge.

Carolyn: Crazy lady winner's arc
We've never seen a crazy lady win Survivor.  Carolyn's archetype usually gets voted out pre-merge, or they become a finale goat.  I think she's got a legit shot.  She needs to compose herself better at tribal council, though.  I also found her funny for the first time, when she was lambasting her tribe (in her confessional) for using her as a decoy vote again. 

Brandon: My prediction seeming likely
I predicted Brandon to be a mid-merge boot, and I think that'll still happen.  He could be an early merge boot, however.  I think people will think of him as untrustworthy, and I feel his closest ally, Matthew GM, would be willing to turn on him.  

Frannie: Last young female left
Frannie is the last female in the game under 30.  Crazy.  I don't think this spells doom for her, though.  I look at her situation like when Natalie lost her sister in SJDS or Tyson lost his girlfriend in BvW or Jeremy lost his wife in SJDS.  I think Frannie is going to use that as motivation and possibly a reason to get people's votes at the final tribal council.  

Danny: Will be targeted... when?
Danny is for sure going to get a target at some point.  There's no way he doesn't.  I think the show is setting up for a massive downfall.  Some have compared him to Tony, but I see him as a cross between Tony and Joe from HHH.  

Lauren: Redemption at the challenge
Lauren struggled and couldn't reach the key.  Survivor really needs to stop with that challenge as it is a clear disadvantage to short people.  Fortunately for Lauren, my winner pick, she stepped up at the puzzle and Ratu avoided Tribal Council... again.

Yam-Yam: Not a good episode
This was not a good episode for Yam-Yam.  He flubbed at tribal council, and now his bond with Carolyn is frayed.  He was left out of the vote, being the only other person other than Sarah to vote for Josh.  And to top it off, he struggled at the challenge.  

Matthew GM: Worried about his shoulder
Matthew's clearly going to have medical look at his shoulder next episode.  Oddly, Stephanie in HvV and Tyson in BvW both seemed relatively fine after dislocating their shoulders.  There's a strong rumor that there is another med-evac, and I'm worried it's Matthew.  

Carson: Good spot to bad
Carson went from a good spot to a bad spot.  He's now on the bottom when he was on the top.  But he formed a bond with Matthew, but if Matthew leaves, he's screwed.  He does have an idol, however.  Also, if the tribe swap had not happened, I do believe Carson and Tika do win, sending Ratu to tribal.  

And to our departed player...

Sarah: Another young female gone
This is getting absurd.  Only women under 30 have been voted out this season so far (Bruce was a med-evac).  Why?  One argument that could be made is Survivor is casting smarter young women, but that's only leading them to be targeted earlier.  Sarah could not have saved herself with an idol, but she could've maybe found an in with Carolyn and Josh and targeted Yam-Yam.  

All right, new power rankings!  

13. Jaime Lynn (-2)
12. Kane (-3)
11. Heidi (-1)
10. Matt B (+2)
9. Joshua (+4)
8. Brandon (-1)
7. Danny (-2)
6. Yam-Yam (-3)
5. Lauren (-1)
4. Carson (-3)
3. Matthew GM (-2)
2. Carolyn (+6)
1. Frannie (+5)

Biggest Rise: Carolyn (+6)
Biggest Fall: Yam-Yam and Kane (-3)

Crazy, just two weeks ago, I had Frannie ranked 15th and LAST.  Now she's #1, not having done a whole lot, but more me reflecting on her chances.  There is no way the last young female in the game gets targeted soon.  No way.  And Carolyn... well her edit is prime for someone getting very far.  MGM drops due to his shoulder.  The merge portion of this game is going to be VERY good.  

After Episode 5 Four Word Game

Jaime Lynn: Ingratiating herself into Soka
Jaime Lynn seems to fit even better on Soka, reveling in Danny's meditation.  But will Danny want to bring her into his meathead alliance?  Or will Jaime Lynn possibly form her own (with Carolyn, Yam-Yam, etc.) and take them on?

Kane: Nerding out with Carson
I knew this would happen once Carson got swapped to Ratu.  The only question was if they'd show it, and fortunately, they did.  I think Carson is more a driving force in this game, however.

Heidi: Still only one episode
Heidi feels like a guest star on this cast that has only appeared in one episode, the episode where Soka went to tribal and voted out Claire.  Even then, she wasn't the focal point.  I feel bad for Heidi, hopefully she becomes a bigger player come the merge.

Matt B: Relationship won't stay secret
Danny, Heidi, and Joshua are all aware of Matt and Frannie's closeness, so someone is bound to spill the beans, right?  So as much as they may try to hide it come the merge, I do think it will get out.  

Joshua: Was an absolute goner
If we hadn't seen MGM med-evac'ed, Joshua was an absolute goner.  It seemed like Yam-Yam and Carolyn had mended fences and Carolyn was 100% gunning for him.  Joshua's idol also fooled neither of them.  If Joshua gets far in this game, he may be the luckiest player this season.  The timing could not have been better for him.

Brandon: Meathead alliance needs numbers
I think come the merge there will be a big divide, where the meatheads will take on the outcasts.  Joshua even mentioned he wouldn't want to be considered one, so who else are Brandon and Danny going to rope in?  Heidi's likely due to her closeness with Danny, but outside of that, most everyone else is either a nerd (Kane, Carson, Frannie, Matt) or an outcast (Yam-Yam, Carolyn, Jaime Lynn).  

Danny: Blindside coming... but when?
Danny is 100% being set up for a blindside, likely going home with an idol in his pocket.  Who is going to want to join his meathead alliance other than Heidi and Brandon?  He may try to rope in Joshua, Frannie, Matt, but I doubt they'll join.  

Yam-Yam: Social game on point
Yam-Yam was only one of three members seemingly headed to tribal, and the only one without an idol (real or fake).  Yet he was in a position to decide between Carolyn and Joshua, this coming after he was left out of a vote.  I 100% believe Yam-Yam was going to be safe, had they gone to tribal.  Him being able to turn that around is huge.

Lauren: Zero screen time... AGAIN
How can they do this to my winner pick?! Ahhhhh!  It's infuriating.  All we get is her sweeping in the background, lol.  Since the finale, Lauren has gotten 2, 1, 0, and 0 confessionals.  My only thought is maybe they're trying to hide the winner from us, which they kind of have done every season of this new era.  

Carson: Mature beyond his years
It's amazing how easily and how well Carson makes social bonds in this game for his age.  He's bonded with almost every one of his tribemates.  Could he possibly be underrated due to his age and make a late run?  I could see it...

Carolyn: Not a cool kid
At the summit, Carolyn was left out of a lot of the talks, making her feel like one of the "not cool" kids.  Well, that's fine for her since there are more nerds and outcasts in this game than jocks.  Also, I do believe she also would have been safe had they gone to TC.

Frannie: Merge vote huge indication
The merge is coming next episode, and who gets voted out will be hugely telling for her game.  If it's her or Matt, obviously she's screwed.  But if it's a jock like Brandon, Danny, or just someone she's not aligned with, that could spell VERY good things for Frannie.

And to our departed player...

Matthew GM: Most robbed med-evac ever?
Matthew was in a great spot, with many people, myself included, considering him as a potential winner this season.  He's up there with Russell Swan in Samoa as someone that had they not been med-evac'ed, could have won the game.  It also sucked not seeing his tribe's reaction this episode.  Hopefully we see it next week.  Also, Matthew leaving continues the trend of only women (women under 30, as well) that have been voted out.  The two men to have left were med-evac'ed.  

All right, new power rankings!  With the merge coming, there's going to be a bit of a shake up... just a warning...

12. Heidi (-1)
11. Matt B (-1)
10. Brandon (-2)
9. Danny (-2)
8. Kane (+4)
7. Lauren (-2)
6. Jaime Lynn (+7)
5. Joshua (+4)
4. Frannie (-3)
3. Carolyn (-1)
2. Yam-Yam (+4)
1. Carson (+3)

Biggest Rise: Jaime Lynn (+7)
Biggest Fall: Frannie (-3)

Jaime Lynn's rise was mostly due to her likely not being any kind of threat or target now that we're at the merge.  And Frannie's fall is only due to the fact she might be targeted due to her relationship with Matt.  And Carson, he's back as my #1 as I really could see him getting to the end and winning over a jury.  I think that's why Jeff Probst loves this season so much.  Funny, the top 3 are all original Tika members, the only 3 original Tika's left.

After Episode 6 Four Word Game: 

Heidi: Who is this woman?
Heidi, along with Lauren, has been purpled a majority of this season, so when she finally got a confessional, it was like, "Who is this?"  It seems she's formed a quick bond with Lauren, and not only that, but neither were a target of the merge vote despite being vulnerable.

Matt B: Smart, keep relationship secret
It's smart of Matt to keep his relationship secret, and also telling Frannie that he probably won't take her on a reward.  I keep thinking Heidi or Danny are going to expose them, but nope.  Maybe soon?  Matt also seemed to be in a lot of conversations, leading me to believe his winner chances are better than Owen's last season.

Brandon: Potential power player perhaps?
Brandon seemed to be the guy people went to this past episode.  He seems to have already made some inroads and has connections to a few people.  It was smart of him to come clean to Kane when Kane wanted the truth about his name being out there.  Getting caught in a lie wouldn't have been good.  I don't know why Brandon has it out for Kane, though.  Kane's not a threat to him unless Kane can rally some people, which doesn't seem likely.

Danny: Surprisingly quiet at merge
I mean sure, we saw him involved, but I really thought he'd get a larger focus.  He was fine with getting rid of Joshua, but he was also fine with that right before the swap.  It'll be interesting to see what Danny's target level will be at now that he'll likely be vulnerable (although he still has an idol).

Kane: Only Carson can save
Kane's name was thrown out there by Jaime Lynn, who started on the same tribe as him.  I worry for his future as he seems like an easy vote down the line.  Carson, who he's close to, could potentially save him, but we've seen Carson cast an ally to the side before (Helen).

Lauren: Still no confessional... WTF?!
That makes three straight episodes where Lauren does not get a single confessional.  What did she do to piss off producers?  She at least got screen time and got to talk about the upcoming vote.  Fortunately, her name never came up, so that does bode well.  It also seems, based on the preview for next week, that she does finally end her zero confessional streak.  

Jaime Lynn: She's way too overconfident
Jaime Lynn called herself the MVP or something, which I mean... I really think it's more Carson or Danny at this point.  I think her overconfidence and her trust in people will be her downfall.  And probably sooner rather than later.

Frannie: An endgamer, I feel
I have this gut feeling that Frannie is making it to the finale, at least.  She just has that presence.  Will she make it there with Matt?  Hard to say (although I'd wager "yes").  I really like her UTR game and I do feel she could win a final jury vote.  But I worry about firemaking, if she's put to it.

Carolyn: Left out yet again
It's like the rest of the players view Carolyn as this crazy, unstable lady.  Will this be her underdog story or is it just the producers wanting to focus on someone entertaining?  I'm now starting to think the latter.  Her being the only one to vote Kane doesn't bode well, unless that was planned in case both Yam-Yam and Joshua played idols.

Yam-Yam: Not in the majority...
Yam-Yam's fallen quite a bit for me, as it seems he's not a part of the majority.  He said it himself, he has a lot of work to do.  This was an awful merge episode for him, but with Joshua out, maybe that'll change the perspective of the majority.  Plus, with everyone (except who wins immunity) being vulnerable now, a lot more options to choose from.

Carson: Right to tell Kane?
It's hard to say at this point if it was right for Carson to tell Kane that his name was being thrown out there as a potential vote.  I guess that builds trust with the two of them, but if Kane is one of the next votes, what good is that?  Also, of course Carson has done that puzzle challenge before, and I worry his puzzle prowess may put a target on his back at some point.

And to our departed player...

Joshua: Luck finally ran out
Joshua is in the running for being my lucky player of the season.  He lucks out in being swapped when he was the next to go on Soka.  Then he lucks out in Matthew GM leaving the game right before a tribal he would've been voted out at.  But in this past episode, his luck ran out.  Unfortunately, he did not make the jury, and he joins the likes of Sydney, Lydia, and Dwight as the last people voted out before the jury phase of this new era.

All right, new power rankings.  Again, there will be some shake ups!

11. Kane (-3)
10. Jaime Lynn (-4)
9. Heidi (+3)
8. Brandon (+2)
7. Yam-Yam (-5)
6. Danny (+3)
5. Carolyn (-2)
4. Lauren (+3)
3. Matt (+8)
2. Carson (-1)
1. Frannie (+3)

Biggest Rise: Matt (+8)
Biggest Fall: Yam-Yam (-5)

Yep, I now feel confident in Matt's game, and nothing recently has given me reason to think he doesn't make it fairly far in this game.  EDIT: Oops!  Sucks that he was screwed over.  And Yam-Yam falls as this was not a good episode for him.  He and Carolyn are playing such messy games.  I moved Lauren up because I really feel they're potentially trying to hide our winner again.  And Frannie claims the top spot again.  Oddly, I see her game similar to Maryanne's.  Both 23, both on a tribe that dominated in the pre-merge.  Maryanne didn't have a showmance, so we'll see how that affects Frannie going forward.  

After Episode 7 Four Word Game:

Kane: Focus for advantage hunt
It was weird how we got to hear Kane's perspective during the advantage hunt, leading myself and my girlfriend to believe Kane would be the one to find the correct key and get the idol.  Alas, he did not get it, but it wouldn't have made a difference in the end, likely.

Jaime Lynn: UTR or finale goat?
Odd that Jaime Lynn was one of the four people who could be voted for, yet her name never came up.  Hers was the only one that didn't.  Either people consider her a finale goat, or she'll make a great UTR run to the end like Gabler last season.  I'm thinking she's more likely a finale goat, I'm afraid.

Heidi: More like a disadvantage
There are some advantages that you just don't want on Survivor, and this stupid "Control a Vote" is one of them.  First off, everyone on the safe side of things knew she had it.  Secondly, she had to pick someone whose vote she would basically steal, alienating them from her.  Then, she had to publicly announce who she wanted that person to vote for.  I hope the Control a Vote never returns because it seems to have now wrecked Heidi's game.  Or it must get HEAVILY modified.

Brandon: Glue holding Ratu together
Brandon seemed to be the driving force in keeping Jaime Lynn and Lauren together.  Interesting how Danny wants to target Ratu when he also wanted to buddy up with Brandon.  I liked how Brandon flat out said to Matt that he wasn't voting for Lauren.  

Yam-Yam: Keeps dodging those bullets
How many tribal councils is Yam-Yam going to have to survive?  If he keeps staying in danger, I can't see a jury wanting to reward him for that.  Maybe the voters will start to ignore him and he'll get by to the end without much more danger.

Danny: Threatened by strong women
That's the only thing I can think of as to why Danny wants to target Lauren so badly.  An extra vote is not that great.  If he knew Carolyn's story and that she has an idol, he'd likely gun for her instead.  And it's odd that he wanted to work with Brandon yet seems to want to take out Brandon's allies.  

Carolyn: A nice, quiet episode
This is what Carolyn needed: Not as much drama.  If she and the rest of Tika can sneak on by, she has a good shot, especially if she keeps her idol a secret or uses it effectively.  

Lauren: She's not a threat!
I don't get why so many people think she's a huge threat.  Sure, she has an extra vote, but has she been dominating the game strategically or socially yet?  No.  There are bigger fish to fry.  Lauren should've kept her extra vote a secret, and I feel her revealing it may end up being her downfall.  We'll see if Danny can get enough numbers to take her out.  Personally, I hope he can't.

Carson: No, don't get sick!
Carson looks like he's struggling physically based on the preview for next week.  I'm sorry, there wasn't much to talk about with him in this episode.  He did choose correctly which side to align with, which again was dumb.  Why do a 5 on 5 challenge when there are 11 people left?  DUMB!  That's production being cheap and not wanting to design a challenge fit for 11 people.

Frannie: Winning reward that important?
By Frannie winning the challenge, she made Matt vulnerable and it cost him.  She gained favor with six other people, but they're not going to remember what she did for very long.  She had already won, and she should've bowed out so that she and Matt could've been safe.  It would not have been hard to "accidentally" mess up and lose the challenge.

And to our departed player...

Matt: Another twist-screwed player
Matt joins a list of twist-screwed players in this new era.  His fate ended up being similar to Michelle Yi from Fiji (Allies on the other side).  Yes, Survivor involves luck, but in this new era, luck is becoming too big of a factor.  Matt was clearly playing an amazing social game and because of bad luck, he was voted out.  Shame.  I know, the Control a Vote was supposed to help someone like Matt who was playing a good social game, but it clearly didn't work.  Of course, as soon as I move him up, he gets voted out.  *sigh*

All right, new power rankings!  

10. Heidi (-1)
9. Lauren (-5)
8. Kane (+3)
7. Jaime Lynn (+3)
6. Yam-Yam (+1)
5. Danny (+1)
4. Brandon (+4)
3. Carson (-1)
2. Frannie (-1)
1. Carolyn (+4)

Biggest Rise: Brandon and Carolyn (+4)
Biggest Fall: Lauren (-5)

Heidi falls to the bottom with her bad advantage play.  Lauren falls for me because I feel like she's now got a target that'll be hard to shake.  Kane and Jaime Lynn rise by default, essentially.  Brandon rises, although if he were blindsided soon, I would not be surprised.  I do think Danny wouldn't want to target him directly.  Carson and Frannie are still near the top, but Carolyn for the first time is my #1.  I love how she's keeping her idol a secret.  Danny's idol is speculated, but not even Carolyn's is speculated.  She's gonna sneak by because people will underestimate her.  She's Gabler with a hidden idol.  Watch out.  

After Episode 8 Four Word Game:

Heidi: Has a little agency
I need to give Heidi a little more credit, she does have agency in the game.  Is it enough to win at a final tribal council?  At this point, still no, but I would've said that about Gabler at this point last season, too.  She seemed to mend fences with Yam-Yam pretty well, but I didn't see any relationships repaired between her and Ratu, which is huge, as Ratu could make up a huge chunk of the jury.

Lauren: So proud of her
Lauren won individual immunity, something I wasn't counting on her winning.  She clearly needed Danny's help to get to the final round, which is ironic since he was targeting her.  Unfortunately, Lauren lost a close ally in Brandon, but if she's gonna win this game, she'll have to recover in the next episode.

Kane: Still not thinking much
Kane's thinking a lot, but I still don't think much of his game.  He's kinda just there.  He's like a mix of Owen and Sammi from last season, and we could see him as a finale goat if the Tika/Soka majority forgets about him.

Jaime Lynn: Needs buddy/a move
We don't know much about Jaime Lynn's game, do we?  Who is her closest ally?  Is it Lauren?  And what moves has she made?  Not much... Her lack of focus has resulted in me thinking she's an easy forgettable vote or she's a finale goat.  Hey, that rhymed.

Yam-Yam: Now in driver's seat
Yam-Yam and his Three Stooges/Tika alliance are in the driver's seat, since Ratu and Soka are so focused on each other.  And I think Yam-Yam may be in the best spot, seeming to the best social player of the three of them.  Although that puts a target on his back a bit.

Danny: Should have thrown challenge?
It was odd, they got to choose their pairs for the challenge and Danny chose to be with Lauren.  He ends up helping her win immunity.  Maybe he should've thrown at the bridge plank stage.  It's the second week in a row I feel a player would've benefited by not trying so hard to win immunity (Frannie last week).  But his idol play was huge, and Frannie now owes her game to him.  That'll either increase Danny's chances of winning or put a larger target on his back.  

Carson: Losing agency in game?
Yes, he's part of the Three Stooges Alliance, but I feel he's losing agency in the game.  With each week I feel his chances of losing a final tribal council grow larger.  It is just so difficult for someone Carson's age to win the game.  He'll need to make a big move to put on his resumé.  

Frannie: Saved, but at cost
Frannie was saved by Danny's idol, but at a cost.  If she gets to final tribal council, a juror can easily say that she wouldn't be in the final 3 if not for Danny.  She certainly can't go with him to the end.  If she blindsides him, that would help.  

Carolyn: Still in good shape
I'm really seeing Carolyn as the Gabler of this season.  Sure, her game is not particularly respected now, but neither was Gabler's at this point.  It will really all depend on her idol, how she uses it (if she even does).  

And to our departed player...

Brandon: Bookended with idol plays
Brandon's got an interesting Survivor story.  His first and last tribals involve idol plays; one of which saves him and the last which idols him out of the game.  He's got to be the first player in Survivor history that has happened to.  He also did not survive a tribal council while he was eligible to be voted for and didn't play an idol for himself.  Or in other words, he received multiple votes at every tribal council he went to without immunity.  Safe to say his social game was not great.

All right, new power rankings!  Where does everyone stand?

9. Jaime Lynn (-2)
8. Lauren (+1)
7. Kane (+1)
6. Danny (-1)
5. Heidi (+5)
4. Frannie (-2)
3. Carson (0)
2. Yam-Yam (+4)
1. Carolyn (0)

Biggest Rise: Heidi (+5), also Yam-Yam (+4)
Biggest Fall: Jaime Lynn and Frannie (-2)

Jaime Lynn falls, I just see her as a possible upcoming target and someone that doesn't have much shot at the end.  In fact, I have the three remaining original Ratu in the bottom 3, followed by the three remaining Soka, and the three Tika are top 3.  Heidi jumps up because I actually think she's in a pretty good spot, and now I don't see anyone targeting her.  And Carolyn retains the top spot, because I actually believe she beats Carson in a FTC (if she gives good enough arguments) and I think Yam-Yam possibly doesn't make FTC due to being a social threat.

After Episode 9 Four Word Game: 

Jaime (No longer Jaime Lynn): Surprisingly good episode, considering
So Jaime lost an ally in Kane, which is never good.  However, him leaving with her fake idol is a blessing in disguise, because otherwise Jaime might play it and it either costs her the game or it makes her look bad.  She also now can be a UTR threat as she and Lauren are just a 2-some now.

Lauren: An even better episode
Lauren had tied for the 2nd most confessionals tonight, which was a nice change of pace.  She also garnered favor from others by sitting out of a challenge she likely wasn't winning.  And now with her extra vote gone, she'll likely avoid the target for a few votes.  I doubt Lauren and Jaime are getting targeted next; the others have bigger fish to fry.

Danny: Loses yet another "showdown"
Danny lost in another "showdown" as Jeff calls them, whenever an endurance challenge gets down to two people.  Doesn't matter who those two people are, it's always a showdown.  I couldn't think of much more for Danny, but this wasn't a bad episode for him.  But he's got to be careful; we've had a string of men going, and he could be next.

Heidi: Still can't see win
I am having trouble seeing Heidi winning over a jury at this point.  And I hate to say it, but I think it's partly due to the accent/cultural differences.  She found an idol and she said she's going to keep it a secret, but will she really?  Rarely do they actually keep it a secret from everyone.  

Frannie: Noticed Tika playing middle
Frannie wanted to target someone from Tika like Yam-Yam since she noticed they were clearly playing the middle, but she was shot down by Danny since they had to get out one of their largest enemies first in a Ratu member to have a numbers advantage over them.  This will either be great for Frannie's game or Tika will notice and target her instead.

Carson: Playing a quiet merge
Carson has been largely quiet since the merge.  The most we've gotten from him is his illness/stomach issues.  He dominated the pre-merge, but hasn't really gained any traction here in the post-merge.  There's still time, but it's looking like he's following the path of other young guys before him in Xander and Sami.

Yam-Yam: Do not target Yam-Yam
Four in a row have gone that voted for Yam-Yam.  If that stays consistent, he will possibly go after Lauren or Heidi next.  Heidi was the one controlling the vote, so logically it should be her.  If he can keep eliminating players that have targeted him, that is a huge selling point at a final tribal council that could win him the game.

Carolyn: Opened up, gaining respect?
Carolyn was the center of the "getting to know you" part of the episode, where she talked about her addiction and fight to be sober.  I think that's a good way to get respect from people, especially towards the end.  But it does open people's eyes just a bit to the fact that you're a bit of a social threat.

And to our departed player...

Kane: Aware, but unfortunately outnumbered
Kane woke up after the Brandon boot and did his best to avoid elimination, but it wasn't enough.  Ratu was just outnumbered since Tika was wanting to get one of them out, too.  Also, this again proves to people to not sit out of immunity challenges, especially if you're possibly going to be in danger.

All right, new power rankings!  I'm going to change things up a bit...

8. Heidi (-3)
7. Danny (-1)
6. Jaime (+3)
5. Carson (-2)
4. Frannie (0)
3. Lauren (+5)
2. Carolyn (-1)
1. Yam-Yam (+1)

Biggest Rise: Lauren (+5)
Biggest Fall: Heidi (-3)

I really feel a former Soka member is going next.  It just makes sense for Tika to get back with Ratu and target one of them, hence why I put Heidi and Danny at the bottom.  I think it's one of them going next.  Carson falls due to lack of shown gameplay/his illness.  Lauren jumps up, and this was the first episode since the premiere that I feel like she has a chance to win again.  Yam-Yam leapfrogs Carolyn because he's on a warpath and nobody is noticing (it seems).

After Episode 10 Four Word Game:

Heidi: Others are catching on
Namely Carolyn, who wanted to target Heidi and in fact voted for her, but only Frannie was along with her.  Nevertheless, they are starting to see how shrewd and calculating Heidi is.  

Danny: Votes out person saved
It's not very often we see someone vote out someone they saved with an idol in a previous episode.  Danny saves Franny but then 4 days (just 4 days!) later he votes her out.  Shows how crazy this new era is.  Also, Danny has been in most of these individual challenges but has yet to win one.  

Jaime: Show dunking on her
We keep seeing it with the edit every week, that the editors/producers do not care how Jaime comes off.  She's getting what many call the "dodo" edit.  There's no way she wins, right?  Maybe if this was still the pre-merge and she had time to recover, but I don't feel she has that time anymore.  Plus, it doesn't seem like anyone in the game, even Lauren, really respects her game.

Carson: Time to dominate challenges?
Carson's sickness may have come at an opportune time, as it allows him an excuse to not do well in challenges until now.  He killed the puzzle (again), and if many challenges involve puzzles in the future, he could go on an immunity run.  

Lauren: Winning path is narrow
But possible.  I don't see Lauren beating any former Tika members, really.  She'd have to go against Jaime and either Danny or Heidi.  If Jaime gets voted out, Lauren's chances of winning go from a long shot to zero.  I do like how she was the first to throw out Heidi's name, but she's one of the people Lauren could possibly beat at the end.  

Carolyn: Call her combustive Carolyn
Carolyn was left out of the vote plan she made, which just sucks on so many levels.  It shows the jury she wasn't able to control a vote.  She is going to be pissed next episode.  Time for the Three Stooges to turn on one another?

Yam-Yam: Threat level seemingly gone
Remember around the time of the merge Yam-Yam couldn't go a tribal without getting at least one vote?  Now, he's an afterthought in terms of whom others target.  This could be both a good and bad thing for his game.  

And to our departed player...

Frannie: Last young female gone
Yep, the last woman under 30 is gone.  Fortunately, we still have Lauren and Jaime who are both gorgeous.  Frannie now gets to spend time with Matt, and winning them over on the jury will be huge as they'll likely be voting together and they have two votes.  Frannie was also the 2nd of 3 "mat chat" players to leave the game after Matthew GM.  Now only Yam-Yam remains.  

New power rankings!  Boy it's so hard to figure this season out, but I'm gonna try:

7. Jaime (-1)
6. Danny (+1)
5. Heidi (+3)
4. Lauren (-1)
3. Yam-Yam (-2)
2. Carolyn (0)
1. Carson (+4)

Biggest Rise: Carson (+4)
Biggest Fall: Yam-Yam (-2)

Jaime gets the bottom spot again as she is the one I see a 0% chance of winning for.  Danny and Heidi may be at odds now (Heidi voted for him), but I still kinda see them as a pair.  Lauren falls slightly as I feel she has a path to the end, but not necessarily a winning path.  Yam-Yam falls from the #1 spot because I am starting to see him as a losing finalist.  And Carson jumps up, and I feel if he can run to the end with a combination of moves/immunities, this game is his.  

After Episode 11 Four Word Game:

Jaime: Content with being goat
It sure seems like Jaime is content with being a finale goat, if that's what she's going for.  Targeting Heidi is certainly a choice.  Did she envision a final three with her, Lauren, and Danny, possibly?  It could be.  It seems every season there's one person we can rule out of possibly winning at the final 6.  41 had Heather, 42 had Romeo, and 43 had Owen.  This season has Jaime.

Heidi: Lie may earn vote
Heidi lied to Danny about not voting for him at the previous tribal council, which, if she gets to the end, may earn her his vote.  That certainly would make the lie worth it.  However, the truth may come out at the final tribal council, and if it does, that completely blows up her game and she's got no shot.  Heidi's down right now, but not out.  If the Tika 3 are smart, they'll target her next due to her firemaking skills.  Heidi still has her idol, and if she is going to have any shot at winning, she'll need to play it effectively.

Lauren: I have accepted defeat
In regards to Lauren, my winner pick, winning this game.  I just can't see it happening anymore.  If Tika turns on each other and completely blows up, it's still hard to see one of them not making the final 3.  I don't think Lauren beats any of them.  Her choice of targeting Heidi is a peculiar one; one I'm still trying to figure out.

Yam-Yam: Immunity win changed game
Imagine, if Yam-Yam doesn't win immunity, he likely becomes the target of Heidi and Danny.  Do they then get Lauren and Jaime?  Does Carolyn play her idol for him?  Hard to say, but his win was clutch and I do think greatly affected how tribal went.  

Carolyn: Ultimate wild card... winner?
Carolyn is such a wild card, someone who you don't know how they're going to be each week or how they'll vote.  She started to vote for Lauren, but changed to Danny.  She blew up at tribal, losing her cool (a tad), even with Jeff.  I think she's likely making it to FTC.  The question is: Will she earn enough respect to garner at least 4 votes to win?  Time will tell.

Carson: Needs other Tika's gone
The jury likes Carson, but I don't think they'll feel he's worthy of the title of Sole Survivor.  I believe he loses to both Yam-Yam and Carolyn at this point.  Carolyn "saved" him with an idol, so it'll be hard for him to vault his game over hers.  If he somehow gets to the end against two of three of Lauren, Heidi, and Jaime, he does win.  But he's got to turn on the other former Tika members.

And to our departed player...

Danny: Danny gone, pathway clear
The pathway is now (mostly) clear for Tika to get to the end together if they want.  Danny was their next big obstacle, and they cleared it.  Danny was not likely to get to the end as he wasn't too close to any of them (or Ratu).  

New power rankings!  In order of their chances of winning (although I think a Tika member possibly goes next):

6. Jaime (+1)
5. Lauren (-1)
4. Heidi (+1)
3. Carson (-2)
2. Carolyn (0)
1. Yam-Yam (+1)

Jaime remains in last place, no surprise there.  Lauren falls a bit, voting incorrectly.  Heidi now has the only idol in the game, so she moves up a tad.  Carson and Yam-Yam switch as I now feel Yam-Yam beats him in a Final Tribal Council.  And I believe Carolyn beats Carson but not Yam-Yam.  The Tika three have taken over, and it's clear why they were featured so much early on.  But the question is, will they start to turn on each other?  For two of them, they need to (IMO that is Carson and Carolyn).  

After Episode 12 For Word Game:

Lauren: The tiniest of hopes
My winner pick made the finale!  Woo... but... she likely won't win.  In fact, she's got such a small chance, that I'd be shocked if she won.  She would have to take out two of the Tika's (and get credit for them), and make a good case at FTC against whoever is left (Heidi and the remaining Tika).  In that case, she has a shot.  But I don't see it happening.  

Heidi: Overestimating her own chances
Heidi says she wants to win, but she's playing like a zero vote finalist.  She may get one vote.  I'd wager she likely makes FTC, but I'd be shocked if she got multiple votes if she gets there the way I think she'll get there.  She'd have to take a Tika out at 5, win fire at 4 to knock another out... even then, I can't see a win.

Carson: All archetypes love him
Someone pointed out on the Survivor subreddit that most of the remaining archetypes love Carson.  Nerds (Matt, Franny, Kane) love him.  Moms (Carolyn, Heidi, Lauren) love him.  The only people I don't see loving him are Brandon and Danny, but I could see them respecting his game.  I really think Carson may have the best shot, should he get to the end.  I liked how he said a former Ratu would go tonight, and despite Lauren's immunity win, he still got his way.

Carolyn: Not the biggest threat
Carolyn was painted as the biggest threat this episode after her idol play in the previous one, and I gotta say, I don't agree.  I don't think enough of the jury will take her seriously enough.  I can't see her securing the votes of Kane, Brandon, Danny, or Jaime.  I think she's a runner up or fallen angel.

Yam-Yam: The biggest obstacle remaining
Yam-Yam is the biggest obstacle remaining for well... everyone.  He beats Lauren, Heidi, and I believe Carolyn.  He puts up a good fight against Carson.  He can win, but the hard part is getting there.  

Final power rankings!  These shouldn't come as any surprise:

5. Heidi (-1)
4. Lauren (+1)
3. Carolyn (-1)
2. Yam-Yam (-1)
1. Carson (+2)

Carson with the only significant movement, as I think he's the likeliest to win.  I don't think Yam-Yam or Carolyn have noticed his threat level and may instead turn on each other.  Jeff hyped up this season's winner, and her certainly would do that if Carson won.  Heidi's ranked 5th, but keep in mind I ranked Gabler 5th going into the finale last season, so... anything can happen.  But I love how there are three legit threats (plus my winner pick) going into the final episode.  Meaning, I will be happy with 4/5 of these people winning.  Not Heidi, though.

All right, now like last season, I'm going to take each of the jurors and rank the final 5 as I think they see them at this point.  Remember, things can change, and how each does at the final tribal council can sway this too.  This is pure speculation, so I could be totally off on these:

Matt: Carson, Carolyn, Yam-Yam, Heidi, Lauren
Brandon: Lauren, Yam-Yam, Carson, Carolyn, Heidi
Kane: Carson, Lauren, Yam-Yam, Carolyn, Heidi
Frannie: Carolyn, Carson, Yam-Yam, Heidi, Lauren
Danny: Yam-Yam, Heidi, Carson, Carolyn, Lauren
Jaime: Lauren, Yam-Yam, Carson, Carolyn, Heidi

So I'll give 5 points if someone is someone else's favorite, 4 if they're 2nd favorite, and so on.  Here's how they'd stand here:

Carson: 23
Yam-Yam: 22
Carolyn: 17
Lauren: 17
Heidi: 11

Lauren gets boosted by former Ratu members, but even then, she only ties for 3rd place.  And honestly, I think she loses to Carolyn in a final 3 with her (and say, Heidi).  Carson and Yam-Yam both in the final three would make for a very exciting showdown, one I think would be very close.  Now let's see how the final 5 views everyone else there, in case they get voted out before the Final 3:

Carson: Carolyn, Yam-Yam, Heidi, Lauren
Yam-Yam: Carolyn, Carson, Heidi, Lauren
Carolyn: Carson, Yam-Yam, Lauren, Heidi
Lauren: Carson, Carolyn, Yam-Yam, Heidi
Heidi: Yam-Yam, Carolyn, Carson, Lauren

Now using 4 as the favorite and 3 as the 2nd favorite, we add those to their previous scores and get...

Carson: 23 + 13 = 36
Yam-Yam: 22 + 12 = 34
Carolyn: 17 + 14 = 31
Lauren: 17 + 5 = 22
Heidi: 11 + 6 = 17

Carson still retains the edge, but still only slightly.  Carolyn gets a boost because basically everyone remaining in the game loves her.  Lauren, on the other hand, well most of her friends are already on the jury.  Now last season, I ranked all the possible final 3's in their likeliness of happening.  I'm not going to do that this season, because I feel it is just such a crapshoot.  It really depends on immunity winners and if Tika turns on each other or goes to the end together.  Let's say they go to the end together, which would make for an entertaining season based on the edit.  Who gets whose vote?

Matt: Carson
Brandon: Yam-Yam
Kane: Carson
Frannie: Carolyn
Danny: Carolyn (I know I ranked Yam-Yam higher above)
Jaime: Yam-Yam
Heidi: Yam-Yam
Lauren: Carson

We have a 3-3-2 tie.  In this case, how do they break it?  My thought is, the 2 that voted for Carolyn re-vote.  If they tie again, Carolyn becomes the final juror and breaks the tie.  Frannie votes for Carson, and Danny votes for Yam-Yam, resulting in another tie.  Carolyn then casts the deciding vote.  Imagine how much of a wreck she'd be here, lol.  I'd say she votes for Carson.  

There you have it.  Should be a great finale!  I'll be rooting for a miracle from Lauren, but I'll happy with Yam-Yam, Carson, or Carolyn winning as well.  

After Episode 13 (Finale) Four Word Game:

Lauren: Idol was right there!
How did she miss it in that tree?  How did everyone miss it?  Guess they hid it too well.  To be honest, I missed the part when they had to solve a puzzle and then use the answer to the puzzle to find an advantage.  They could've done that with the idol, but they probably didn't want to make it too easy.  Lauren, my winner pick, finishes in 5th, meaning my winner picks in this new era have finished 9th, 1st, 4th, and 5th.  Not bad.

Carson: Tika F3 never happening
Even if a Tika member wins that final immunity challenge, whoever goes to fire against Heidi probably loses, seeing how fast she built hers.  Carson played a great game, but he ends up being a champion for Yam-Yam's game, so Carson losing fire locked in Yam-Yam's win.

Carolyn: Needed different final three
If Carolyn gets to the end against Heidi and Lauren, I think she wins.  She needed to target Yam-Yam at 5 (or earlier).  Her downfall was thinking she had a good shot against him.  Carolyn was such an entertaining character, perhaps the most of this new era, but entertainment alone does not win you Survivor.

Heidi: Could not possibly win
I'll give Heidi credit, she did everything she could to win... but not until the Final 4 immunity challenge.  Like Carolyn, she needed to get out Yam-Yam sooner.  But she likely loses to Carolyn, considering a lot of Yam-Yam's votes would go to her.  She just did too little too late.

Yam-Yam: Helping Carson sealed victory
Yam-Yam likely figured Carson was going to lose fire against either him or Heidi.  And he correctly assumed even if he helped him, it still wouldn't be enough.  It was such a great social move to help him try to practice fire, because Carson championed for him at the final tribal council.  Yam-Yam wins 7-1-0 and becomes perhaps the best winner of this new era.