SURVIVOR 48 FOUR WORD GAME

Survivor 48 has had its premiere, and what an interesting cast we have so far.  Like past seasons, I'm going to give each player remaining in the game (and the booted player) four words to describe the current state of their game, what they need to do, what I noticed, and anything that might stand out about them to me.  I'll then elaborate a tiny bit on that, especially early on considering I have a lot of players to get through.  

As always, I'll be starting with my lowest-ranked player, then going sequentially to my highest ranked player.  This first week is based off of my pre-season rankings from my other Survivor 48 post.  Let's go!

EPISODE 1 FOUR WORD GAME

Thomas: Not an early boot
Thomas bonding with the men and Bianca proves to me he's likely making the merge.  In fact, one could argue he's one of the most insulated players in the game.  I think I was very wrong on Thomas.  

Shauhin: Male alliance should carry
The ironically named "California Girls" alliance should carry Shauhin for a while.  It's good that Shauhin and Joe are cool with that.  

Bianca: Alliance with men crucial
It may not be the best spot, but being the #4 in the California Girls alliance is better than nothing (although Bianca is from New Jersey).  Trying to turn on them would be dumb.  The men have the control on that tribe.

Cedrek: Must turn if necessary
Cedrek formed an alliance with Sai, and a semi-alliance with Justin and Kevin.  If Justin and Kevin propose it, Cedrek must be willing to turn on her or he'll go down with her.  

Sai: Record setting aggressive machine
Sai is a record-setter as she broke the record for confessionals in one episode with 21!  That largely had to do with her idol find, but wow.  She's also playing very aggressively on a tribe that's likely going to tribal again.  That's extremely risky.  She would be wise to play her idol at the next tribal.  

Mitch: Will be heartbreaking boot
I definitely have a different perception of Mitch now than I did preseason.  Had I actually watched his video, I would've seen how bad his stutter is.  So it'll be interesting to see how other players treat him.  He doesn't seem to be in the best spot (a four-person alliance formed on his tribe without him in it), so it doesn't look great.

Joe: Sacrifices game for Eva?
That comment that he'd rather go home than turn on her spoke volumes, and I believe him.  Joe seems like such a stand-up dude.  He and Eva were definitely framed in a positive light.  Plus, his physical nature is helping his tribe beast challenges so far.  Also, I was very wrong about purple being the disaster tribe.  It's green.

Kamilla: Oddball fitting in okay
Kamilla formed a bond and a four-person alliance with Kyle, David, and Chrissy.  That was good to see for her.  I think others might find her kooky, so while she's fitting in now, don't count on it all season.

Eva: Picked the right person
To confide in.  I think we'll be looking back at that moment towards the end of this season as a huge point in the game.  I think Eva and Joe both make it far.  I don't see people gunning for Eva as a threat, and Joe will be around to protect her.

David: Rubbing people wrong way
He just comes off as one of those macho guys that people don't really get along with unless they too are a macho guy.  The questions he asked were weird, but fortunately for him, he's in an alliance.

Mary: Bottom on bad tribe
The worst spot to be in.  She voted incorrectly at the first tribal, and their tribe looks like they'll likely lose multiple challenges.  Mary's got a lot of work to do to just make the merge.  We could be looking at an Ua 2.0 here, when Shan and Ricard were the only two to make the merge from their tribe (in 41).  

Charity: On outs and quiet
Not great.  She wasn't included in the alliance, some things were said about her to make us think she's going soon, and we didn't get a ton of content from her, anyway.  It's not looking great for Charity.

Justin: Let pizza analogies fly!
I may reference pizza in every one of his Four Word games, just FYI.  Love the pizza analogies and love the pizza shirt.  Unfortunately for Justin, he's on a bad tribe, so hopefully they recover.  Fortunately, though, he and Kevin seem to be in the prime position to decide who goes.

Star: Clearly first to go
On Lagi, anyway.  There's the California Girls (aka the men), and Thomas has a connection to Bianca while Joe has a connection to Eva.  That leaves Star on the outs.  Sucks for her.  

Chrissy: Already see she's lasting
I can already tell from one episode that Chrissy is going to last a while.  Orange likely won't go to too many pre-merge tribals, and if they do, Charity and Mitch are ahead of her in the pecking order.  She could be yet another older lady that loses at the end.

Kyle: Good dude, deserves better
That was awesome of Kyle to help Kevin finish since he was essentially DQ'ed.  Which, I gotta say, why not use less breakable glass?  I hate when the challenge fails the contestant, which is what happened.  I would've argued it so much.  I wish nothing but the best for Kyle.  

Kevin: Shaky situation, not doomed
It's a shaky situation since he's on such a bad tribe it seems, but he's in a good spot, and let's not forget, we've seen multiple winners emerge from bad tribes.  Ricard almost did it, Yam-Yam did it, and Kenzie did it.  Also, weird how they cut out medical looking at his shoulder, since it was in the promo for the season aired at the end of 47.  

And to our departed player...

Stephanie: Drew the short straw
Talk about awful luck.  Put on a terrible tribe.  Each of the other tribes has a really buff dude.  Kevin is fairly buff, but not that buff.  Anyway, Steph just got really unlucky, and couldn't get her shot in the dark to hit.  At least Mary stuck by her.

All right, first rankings of the season (after seeing at least one episode).  The number in parentheses is how much they differ from my previous ranking of them, and in this case, that would be my pre-season ranking from my Survivor 48 Preview and Predictions post.  Here is how I rank the remaining 17:

17. Mary (-9)
16. Charity (-9)
15. Sai (-1)
14. Star (-10)

13. Cedrek (+2)
12. Mitch (+1)
11. Justin (-6)
10. Kamilla (+1)
9. Bianca (+7)
8. David (+1)
7. Shauhin (+10)
6. Thomas (+12)
5. Kyle (-3)
4. Joe (+8)
3. Chrissy (0)
2. Eva (+8)
1. Kevin (0)

Biggest rise: Thomas (+12!) also Shauhin +10, Joe and Eva +8
Biggest fall: Star (-10), also Mary and Charity (-9)

Well, there's always going to be a ton of movement early, and this season is no exception.  I am sticking with my winner pick for now, but I bet we'll get some really good content from someone else in the near future that'll make me pick a new #1.  Crazy how the bottom 4 are women, but those are the four people most in danger of being voted out next episode.  

AFTER EPISODE 2 FOUR WORD GAME
Side note: This is going to be a quicker one (less detailed) because I'm not a fan of how one tribe is getting decimated... plus my winner pick just got voted out early... again.

Mary: Still doomed, I'm sorry
On the worst tribe, they're almost for sure going to lose again after voting out Kevin.

Charity: Like Dee's big toes?
What is Survivor's weird fetish with feet?  First Dee's big toes now Charity's weird foot?  Hard to say.  It's good to see she has a buddy in Mitch, but it's 2 against 4.

Sai: Female Rome this season
Chaotic, advantages, getting into arguments.  She's a female Rome.  That likely means she's not going very far. especially considering what tribe she's on.

Star: Had to include someone
On her beware advantage.  But no one seems that inclined to help her.  But she may have gained a little trust at least.

Cedrek: Low-key worst competitor
Cedrek sucks at challenges.  He's bringing them down.  Safe to say they do much better if they have Stephanie over him.  But at least he has the Kevin move (which he didn't orchestrate).

Mitch: Incredibly wholesome likable dude
That's what Mitch is.  He'll likely make the merge, but his likability will paint a target on his back.

Justin: Extremely risky move made
Turning on Kevin like that... sheesh.  Now he has to hope they have a tribe swap or merge before he gets voted out, because they're likely not winning anything.  

Kamilla: Brains behind her duo
Her and Kyle are quite the underrated duo, and Kamilla showed she's the brains.  

Bianca: Not much content early
She has the fewest confessionals through two episodes with a total of 2, one each episode.  Not great.

David: Play up goofball energy
Seriously.  If he does, people won't take him seriously and he may slip by in this game.  

Shauhin: Handled advantage situation well
Once Joe brought him in, I thought he handled it well, and he was wise to be suspicious of Thomas being sneaky.

Thomas: Evil side to him
Wanting Shauhin to lose the guide that would help Star find the idol.  Not sure if that's allowed.  But man, that shows Thomas is willing to do whatever it takes.  I like that. 

Kyle: Couldn't figure out puzzle?
He got the letters but needed Kamilla's help to solve the word puzzle?  And this dude is a lawyer?  It makes me think she's got much better chance to win than him.

Joe: Everyone goes to him
First Eva now Star.  Shows Joe as being approachable, trustworthy, and likable.  That's huge.

Chrissy: Not enough content yet
Like Bianca, Chrissy's getting not much.  She had the whole deep belly button thing, but it was among Kyle's wart/callous and David's four nipples.

Eva: Needs connection to another
She has a good bond with Joe, but who else?  She would be smart to warm up to Thomas, Bianca, or Shauhin and solidify their fivesome.

And to our departed player...

Kevin: Never run game early
Kevin thought that he was running the game early.  Never think that.  In fact, you can't even think that until like Final 6 or 5.  Even if you're the only muscle on your tribe, your tribemates will turn on you.  Shame.  

New power rankings!  Definitely going to be some shakeups.  Can't believe my #1 got booted episode 2.  Sigh.  Well, here they are:

16. Sai (-1)
15. Mary (+2)
14. Cedrek (-1)
13. Justin (-2)
12. Star (+2)
11. Charity (+5)
10. Mitch (+2)
9. Chrissy (-6)
8. Bianca (+1)
7. Kyle (-2)
6. David (+2)
5. Thomas (+1)
4. Eva (-2)
3. Kamilla (+7)
2. Joe (+2)
1. Shauhin (+6)

Biggest rise: Kamilla (+7), also Shauhin (+6) and Charity (+5)
Biggest fall: Chrissy (-6)

Clearly had to choose a new #1, and it's Shauhin!  I think he's the most insulated on his tribe.  Well it's either him or Joe, and I think Joe may be more of a threat.  Hard to say.  I just really liked how Shauhin handled Star's advantage situation, and I liked how Joe felt the need to include him.  Both males to have won in the New Era had big beards (Gabler and Yam-Yam), and Shauhin is no different.  Kamilla rises for me as well, I think she's a dark horse and I'm liking her more.  The entire Vula tribe is on the bottom for me, for obvious reasons.  They literally could not have done worse in this game, outside of one thing.  They've finished last in each tribe challenge, and Mary was the only one to lose on the journey.  The only thing any of them ever won was when Kevin beat Kyle to get supplies, and even then, they only one because Kyle accidentally broke his jug.  He likely wins if he doesn't.  And the only guy that's ever won anything for them?  They just voted him out.  

My Survivor 50 Cast

 Survivor 50 is scheduled to air around this time next year.  Crazy.  With that said, I thought I'd put together a cast that I would use for Survivor 50.  I'll take into account who production seems to like, and who doesn't want to play again (won't cast them).  Here are some ground rules I put together for myself:

• No more than 2 returning players for one season
• Only using casts from seasons 35-48.  34 was a returning players season, 33 and earlier have at least had a chance to return so far.  48 has not aired yet, but more on that later.
• Trying to cast 1 or more from each of the above seasons.  However, one season, 39, did not make the cut.  I think Survivor at this point is okay with not casting from EVERY season, especially considering what 39 is known for.
• Follow the diversity mandate, meaning half the cast has to be people of color (non-white).  
• No winners allowed.  I considered this a "Second Chance" type cast.  

With that said, I'm going to list the players, why I chose them, and who was close to making it but ultimately didn't.  And then at the end, I'll put together the tribes so that there aren't any players from the same original season on the same tribe.

Survivor 35 (Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers): Chrissy Hofbeck
Only Chrissy makes the cast from here.  She's still talked about with how well she did at challenges, and Survivor owes it to her to give her another chance after how they screwed her over with the surprise fire-making twist that allowed Ben to have another chance.  There wasn't really anyone else here I considered.  I'd like to see Devon Pinto again, but he said he'd only play again with his mom on a "Blood vs. Water" type season.  Ryan Ulrich loses out to a nerd from two seasons later.

Survivor 36 (Ghost Island): Dominic Abbate
Dominic is the only player to lose on a tie-breaking final vote.  How can he not be brought back?  The only other player I somewhat considered was Michael Yerger, who I liked but likely has been forgotten about at this point.  He could be a dark-horse candidate, but the problem is, there's already a ton of white males to choose from.

Survivor 37 (David vs. Goliath): Christian Hubicki and Angelina Keeley
Christian remains one of the game's biggest fan favorites.  Imagine him dissecting strategy with some other All-Stars.  Angelina comes back solely for the memes but also because Jeff loves her.  Let's hope for another Natalie/coat situation or another rice negotiation from Angelina.  I considered Gabby Pascuzzi and John Hennigan, but Christian and Angelina beat them out.

Survivor 38 (Edge of Extinction): Rick Devens
How could he not be brought back?  He was so close to a win, he's great TV, and he's clearly liked by production as he was a co-host of the On Fire podcast.  I also considered Victoria Baamonde, who was a last-minute cut because I needed to abide by the diversity mandate.

Survivor 39 (Island of the Idols): No one
As mentioned above, no one made it from this cast.  Like I said, I think production would be okay to completely ignore this season.  I considered Elaine, who was closest.  I really like Janet, but she was involved with the Dan Spilo incident, albeit not in a bad way, but I know production wants to steer very clear of it.  She's also a bit on the older side.

Survivor 41: Shantel "Shan" Smith
She has her own theme song.  I can see production incorporating that into their promos for 50.  How could they not?  She's made some comments that I don't think production really liked, but she's still talked about in Survivor circles.  I considered Ricard, but there are too many males that I'd want to see more than him.

Survivor 42: Omar Zaheer
I could be wrong, but I think they're more likely to cast strategic and social masterminds rather than physical players, which is why I chose Omar over his Taku tribemate, Jonathan.  I'd love to see Jonathan beast challenges again, but we know he's got zero shot to actually win the game against all-star strategists.  I also considered Mike and Lindsay, who fell short as well.

Survivor 43: Jesse Lopez and Karla Cruz Godoy
I so badly wanted both Jesse AND Cody, but I couldn't fit Cody.  Maybe production can.  But at least I have Jesse, who is my personal favorite strategist of the New Era.  I also included Karla, who I think could learn and improve upon her first game, which started very strong but fizzled out toward the end.  Both also fulfill the diversity mandate.  

Survivor 44: Carolyn Wiger and Lauren Harpe
This is the only time I cast two of the same gender from the same season.  Carolyn is an obvious choice.  Production might not like her ties to Carson or her appearance on The Traitors (on a rival network), but she is on the New Era Mount Rushmore of characters.  And Lauren might seem like a weird pick, which it maybe is, but she was a dark horse on her season who other players said would likely win if she gets to the end (at least against anyone except Yam-Yam).  I also considered Carson, but production doesn't love him anymore.  Plus, I don't need more white males.

Survivor 45: Kaleb Gebrewold and Kellie Nalbandian
Weird how my two picks from this season were the first two jury members.  Kaleb was a fan favorite, had a legendary shot in the dark play, and likely fares better when there are other threats he's playing with.  Kellie might also seem like an odd pick, but she had a pretty legendary blindside, and the Survivor community and production seem to love her.  She's got a good mind for the game, which is what led to her ouster.  She could definitely showcase her strategic chops on a second try.

Survivor 46: Q Burdette
I wanted to include a second, but there was no room.  Q had to make it, being the legendary character he is.  It'd be a big mistake not to bring him back.  I considered Charlie, but as I've said, there were too many white males ahead of him.  I also considered Venus, Hunter, and Tiffany.

Survivor 47: Andy Rueda and Genevieve Mushaluk
I'm pretty sure Jeff hinted to already asking Andy to come back for 50.  So he has to make it.  Gen, meanwhile, was such a great female powerhouse and I think could shine on an all-star cast.   Sure, she didn't get the greatest edit in the world early on, but a lot of great female players didn't.  

Survivor 48: One male, one female
In order to make my complete cast, one man and one woman from this season makes it onto 50.  I'm not sure who.  I'm not going to even fathom a guess at this point.  But in order to abide by the diversity mandate, one has to be a person of color.  I'll update here once 48 is at least close to over.  If I don't like two people enough to be on 50, I'll go back and add someone from a prior season.  

Survivor 49: No one
49 will air in the fall of 2025, and I feel like that's not enough time for production to gauge the reaction of the cast there.  Plus, they probably want to avoid back-to-back seasons, although they've done that several times before when the seasons were 39 days.  But the cast of 50 is very likely going to be announced before we see 49 (or at least, finish 49).  So the players from 49 will have to hope for a returning players season after 50 that they can get a second chance on.

So that makes 18 players.  I know a lot of people think they might up the amount of players to 20 for Season 50, but they seem so infatuated with the three tribe format.  I don't see it changing, even for 50.  Here is my 18-player, 3-tribe cast, keeping duplicates from the same season on different tribes and trying to balance them out for challenge strength:

RED TRIBE
Dominic Abbate, 36
Jesse Lopez, 43
Male player, 48
Angelina Keely, 37
Shan Smith, 41
Kellie Nalbandian, 45

BLUE TRIBE
Rick Devens, 38
Omar Zaheer, 42
Kaleb Gebrewold, 45
Karla Cruz Godoy, 43
Carolyn Wiger, 44
Genevieve Mushaluk, 47

GREEN TRIBE
Christian Hubicki, 37
Q Burdette, 46
Andy Rueda, 47
Chrissy Hofbeck, 35
Lauren Harpe, 44
Female player, 48

Oh man, what a cast!  I'll be interested to see how this compares to the actual cast of 50.  And again, once 48 is over or close to over, I will put in my two picks from that season here.  

I made a Brant Steele simulation of this season, choosing Cedrek and Charity (randomly) from 48 to add to the cast for the 48 spots.  Here it is to simulate. https://brantsteele.com/survivor/32/r.php?c=nodG8zB2
Again, once I update the 48 picks, I'll change them there as well.