Survivor 49 is less than a month away, and with the official cast release, it's time for my cast review and predictions. Like I've done in the New Era so far, I will give each player two comparables of who they remind me of, and then give them a placement I think they'll fall into with a range of 6 spots, such as 12th to 7th, 18th to 13th, etc. The last two seasons I have gotten 6/18 correct, so I am really hoping to not make it 3 in a row and hopefully improve back to where I used to be, which was around 8 or 9 correct. So I have to return to form this season. I'll organize them alphabetically by first name so I can find them easier later on. I'll be updating these as they get voted out to see if I'm right or wrong; those updates will be in BOLD. I'll be going off of Entertainment Weekly's article about the cast done by Dalton Ross. Also, I will color code these by tribe. Red is for Uli, Blue is for Kele, and Yellow is for Hina. And I'll put together a boot order given my placements for them at the end of all this.
Lastly, I wanted to note that I do know the two players from this season who will be returning for Survivor 50, so that does give me a bit of an advantage that I don't normally get. Since I'm only competing against myself, I will take it. I won't mention who those players are here or in my comments on them, but do note that they are very likely one of the players that I predict to go far in this game. Without further ado, the cast:
Alex Moore, 27, Political Comms Director from Washington D.C.
Comparables: Dwight Moore, Jon Lovett
For Alex's comparables, I chose two New Era players whose careers also have to do with politics. Surprisingly, players in the political field tend to not do so well on Survivor. And I'm sorry to say that I think the same will be true for Alex. At best, I think he overplays his hand mid-merge as a possible blindside. At worst, he's an early boot. I'll try to give him the tiniest benefit of the doubt.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th
CORRECT, 9th. He kind of did overplay his hand, thinking he could work both sides. I almost gave him too much benefit of the doubt.
Kimberly "Annie" Davis, 49, Musician from Austin, TX
Comparables: Sue Smey, Carolyn Wiger
Annie is a force, having commanded a company and now is a musician, reminding me a lot of Sue Smey in owning her own flight company. Annie is the oldest woman on the cast, so as always with someone like that, they are very high variance. Meaning, they could be one of the first boots or they could be a losing finalist, like Sue. But what usually decides it is tribe strength. It's heavily reliant on their starting tribe, and I think Annie will be saved by being on a good tribe, skirting on by, possibly all the way to FTC. But I think it's a safe bet to say she is not winning this season.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 17th. It really comes down to the tribe you're put on. You switch Annie and Sue Smey, and I guarantee Annie goes far in 47 while Sue gets voted out early in 49. My mistake was thinking she was on a good tribe (hey, I thought Jake could carry them).
Jake Latimer, 36, Correctional Officer from St. Albert, Alberta, Canada
Comparables: Danny Massa, Jonathan Young
Oh boy, Jake and I are the same age, but man, he has accomplished so much in his life compared to me. He's like Forrest Gump. I fully expect Jake to make the merge, barring him doing something dumb. But I can't see that happening; he has been watching since he was a kid and should know the game well enough to avoid that. However, I expect his threat level to be a huge issue for him, as I believe others will see and recognize that he could very well win if he gets to the end. Possible final boss, possible early to mid-merge boot.
Predicted finish: 9th-4th
WRONG, 16th. Although two things, one, who could've seen Kele as the disaster tribe with him on it, and two, of course, medevacs are not predictable in the slightest so I will almost always get players medevaced wrong.
Jason Treul, 32, Law Clerk from Santa Ana, CA
Comparables: Kenny Hoang, Matt Blankinship
I had to take Kenny from Jason's "Who he will most play like", since they also look alike. They're also both computer/video game nerds who don't get out much. He also looks like Matt from 44, so I had to add him. I think Jason is on the disaster tribe, which is usually the Yellow tribe when they do the three primary colors, so even if he's in the power alliance, he's not getting terribly far. I think he could be screwed by a split tribal when he's perhaps the only Hina tribe member.
Predicted finish: 14th-9th
CORRECT, 13th. He was not on the disaster tribe, but he was screwed by a twist in the game, but not a split tribal, but instead a tribe swap.
Jawan Pitts, 28, Video Editor from Los Angeles, CA
Comparables: James Jones, Tim Spicer
Jawan definitely seems like the kind of guy who either gets overconfident/overplays like James or he gets forgotten about/purpled like Tim. I cannot see him getting terribly far, unless he scoots on by like DeShawn did in 41. I think he'll be fine getting to the merge, but once he gets there, all bets are off.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
CORRECT, 8th. I was fairly correct in my assumption of Jawan. I didn't peg him as the type to be aware when the target shifted to him.
Jeremiah Ing, 39, Global Events Manager from Toronto, ON, Canada
Comparables: Tai Trang, Yam-Yam Arrocho
Jeremiah was featured in the 49 promo, so possibly good things for him. Although, so was Brandon in 45, so that doesn't mean everything. But I do believe he'll link up with a girl or two on his tribe and get by to the merge, possibly even getting far. But there's just something that tells me he's not making the FTC or maybe not even the finale. Seems too big for him, perhaps.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 15th. Yet again, a disaster tribe screws over a player that SHOULD have gone farther. I was right in saying just because he was featured in the promo, doesn't mean he will go far.
Kristina Mills, 36, MBA Career Coach from Edmond, OK
Comparables: Taj George, Cirie Fields
Kristina is on my predicted disaster tribe, so the first vote will be crucial. I bet she links up with MC and possibly brings in another, so her going early is no guarantee. I could see yellow voting out their physical strength early despite them needing them early, and forcing production to induce a tribe swap, because they always swap when there's a disaster tribe (After 41, that is). So I could see Kristina being saved by a swap and getting far-ish, but how far? Hard to say. I'll say not terribly far.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th
WRONG, 5th. She did better socially than I thought she would, but also she was not on my predicted disaster tribe.
Matt Williams, 52, Airport Ramp Agent from St. George, UT
Comparables: Mike Gabler, Brad Reese
Matt's the cooky older white guy, like his comparables. But like Broccoli Brad and unlike Gabler, I expect Matt to go early. He's on a bad tribe, and I can't see him surviving multiple early votes. They'll likely go 3 votes before the swap, and I can't see him making it. He might even be the first boot. Sorry, Matt. I just don't see him being in an alliance with more than one person, who he will likely bring down with him.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 14th. Phew! I correctly pegged Matt as an early boot. But I will say, it was largely due to circumstances outside of his control AKA the tribe swap.
Michelle "MC" Chukwujekwu, 29, Fitness Trainer from San Diego, CA
Comparables: Tiffany Ervin, Drea Wheeler
MC is the athletic chick who will almost for sure make the merge, unless something crazy happens like she gets swap-screwed or plays extremely paranoid. How far she gets is another story. I could see her linking up with Kristina and possibly outlasting her... they each are threats, but in different ways. I'll give MC the slight edge.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
CORRECT, 10th. Right in the middle. Although she wasn't really ousted for being a physical threat (although she was), it was more her inexperience and her overplaying.
Nate Moore, 47, Film Producer from Hermosa Beach, CA
Comparables: Cedrek McFadden. Nick Brown
Now I highly doubt Nate is going to be as wacky and unpredictable in the game as Cedrek. I expect him to come across calm and laid back like Nick, but I do expect him to be more active than some of the older guys from the past. I bet Nate will be hiding his occupation, unless he has zero desire to win. I can't imagine him lasting too too long. He probably has a multi-million dollar home to go back to. If Uli goes to a pre-merge tribal, I could easily see Nate being a target and the one who goes.
Predicted finish: 16th-11th
CORRECT, 11th. BARELY. But hey, I take those! He definitely hid his occupation and I'm excited to hear him reveal it in the aftershow. But he was a merge boot moreso than a pre-merge boot.
Nicole Mazullo, 26, Financial Crime Consultant from Philadelphia, PA
Comparables: Teeny Chirchillo, Lyida Meredith
There aren't many I would put money on being an early boot, but Nicole might be one of them. She doesn't seem to be in the greatest shape, could cost her tribe a challenge, and seems like someone who could rub others the wrong way. Best-case scenario is a Teeny-type run where she gets to the finale. But I don't think Nicole will even do that.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
WRONG, 18th. I'm so mad that I am 1 spot off. But it's still off. I did correctly say I would put money on her being an early boot. I should've considered her to be a first boot. My mistake was thinking Blue would win the first immunity.
Rizo Velovic, 25, Tech Sales from Yonkers, NY
Comparables: Xander Hastings, Carson Garrett
A young, confident guy? Haven't seen that before. Rizo calls himself the "Rizgod", and oh my word I hope he doesn't use that too much with his tribemates. Heck, I hope he doesn't use that too much toward us in his confessionals. Please, no third person. But he seems like a good kid at heart, and I bet he will surprise some people. I can't explain why, but he seems like someone who will make the move of the season. Whether it works or blows up in his face, I don't know. But he seems like he'd have the balls to do it. Possibly just for the meme.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
CORRECT, 4th. Right in the middle too! Yes, we saw his softer side at times, and I don't know if he made the move of the season, but his idol bluffs will likely forever be a highlight.
Sage Ahren-Nichols, 30, Clinical Social Worker from Olympia, WA
Comparables: Kendra McQuarrie, Jennifer Lanzetti
Who collects pimples, honestly? Sage is certainly a kooky one, and she definitely seems more character than player. The worst-case scenario would be that she is mostly invisible, and the few times we actually see her speak, she says something crazy. Honestly... I could see that happening. I chose Jennifer from Kaoh Rong as a comparable because Sage seems like someone who would stand on her seat at tribal as well.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th
WRONG, 3rd. I really underestimated Sage. I think I may have had a comparable of Carolyn Wiger from 44 before, and I wish I had kept that, because she ended up getting the same placement as Carolyn.
Savannah Louie, 31, Former Reporter from Atlanta, GA
Comparables: Michele Fitzgerald, Kim Spradlin
Savannah is the complete package. I see winner written on her forehead. Not literally, obviously. That's why I chose two winners as comparables for her. She's got experience, the right amount of cunning and villainy, and, she's on a good tribe. I could see her linking with Sage and stabbing her in the back. I could see her "putting up" with Rizo, and using Nate and Jawan. She's got it all.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
CORRECT, 1st. Yay, another predicted winner! Although to be fair, I did have some insight knowledge from the casting of 50, but it was never guaranteed she was the winner.
Shannon Fairweather, 28, Wellness Specialist from Boston, MA
Comparables: Stephanie Berger, Sarah Wade
I compared Shannon to Stephanie and Sarah, two blondes who got booted before the merge. She comes off as too spiritual and not a great listener. She's on what I think will be a good tribe in challenges, but if they lose just 1 challenge, Shannon would be my pick from their tribe to go. Nate and Jawan are likely together. Rizo and Savannah seem like they'd be safe. And they'll need Sage for challenges.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 12th. Barely! Shannon integrated a lot better than I thought she would (at least at first), but then got separated from her closest allies for too long after multiple swaps.
Sophi Ballerdi, 27, Entrepreneur from Miami, FL
Comparables: Dee Valladares, Abi-Maria Gomes
We got another Latina fireball here, everyone. Sophi is certainly going to try to wiggle her way into some guy'(s) heart(s). I could easily see her wooing Alex, who mentioned in his intro video he might be looking for love. And they're the same age. I could see him crushing on her while she plays along for the game, like Dee and Austin in 45. Calling it now. However, their duo will not do as well. I think Sophi will do better than Alex, but not too much better.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
WRONG, 2nd. Dang it! That Alex/Sophi crush never happened, oops. She did do better than Alex, but I'd say quite a bit better.
Sophie Segreti, 31, Strategy Associate from New York, NY
Comparables: Rachel LaMont, Erika Casupanan
Sophie seems like the perfect Survivor player. Social, but not too social. Shows good game acumen but does not come off as intimidating. That's why I chose two winners for her comparables, who fit that description as well. Does Sophie, win, however? You'll have to wait and see. I would not be the least bit surprised by a Sophie win, I will at least say.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
WRONG, 7th. SO CLOSE! Dang it. Well, it is what it is. She was a good all-around player, but her lack of awareness that she was the target cost her. Not sure what she could've done, however.
Steven Ramm, 35, Rocket Scientist from Denver, CO
Comparables: Danny Massa, David Voce
I hate to say it, but Steven, being on my disaster tribe pick, also doesn't have a ton of lasting power in this season. I think possibly Matt goes, and then Steven is on the outs. I could see the two of them aligning, but being in the minority. Perhaps they won't be as bad of a tribe as I think. But I think it's more common than not that, in the New Era, one tribe loses a lot more than the other 2. That was the case in 41, 44, 45, 46, and 48. That's 5/8, and 4 of the last 5 seasons. It's a trend that seems likely to continue.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
WRONG, 6th. This one I was not close on. Yellow was not the disaster tribe for one, and two, Steven did better socially than I thought he would.
All right, now a boot order, based on where I predicted them to finish:
18th: Matt
17th: Steven
16th: Nicole
15th: Shannon
14th: Nate
13th: Sage
12th: Jason
11th: Kristina
10th: Alex
9th: MC
8th: Jawan
7th: Sophi
6th: Jeremiah
5th: Jake
4th: Annie
3rd: Rizo
2nd: Sophie
1st: Savannah
There you have it, my winner pick for Survivor 49 is Savannah! She definitely seems like the complete package, and I could see her, Rizo, and Sophie (Wrong Sophi, ahh!) running the game together come the merge. I mentioned Sophie as having all the traits, but I think Savannah will have more of a killer instinct, which nets her the win over Sophie. By the way, I have Rizo beating Annie in fire (Oops, Rizo sucks in fire), but it's not enough to get him the win.
So far, my winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 16th, 1st, and 16th. 17th
Here are my winner picks and how they've done so far:
41 - Evie, 9th
42 - Maryanne, 1st WINNER
43 - Jesse, 4th
44 - Lauren, 5th
45 - Sabiyah, 16th
46 - Kenzie, 1st WINNER
47 - Aysha, 16th
48 - Kevin, 17th
Yikes! Three bad ones the last 4 times and one good one in correctly picking the winner. My winner pick averages a placement of 8.6, so at least I have a jury average.
Here's how where I had the actual winners placed at the start of each season:
41 - Erika: 3rd
42 - Maryanne: 1st
43 - Gabler: 18th (yikes)
44 - Yam-Yam: 3rd
45 - Dee: 9th
46 - Kenzie: 1st
47 - Rachel: 18th (Another yikes)
48 - Kyle: 2nd (So close)
With an average placement of 6.875, so this one's a bit better. I have a slightly better read on how well the winner actually does than I do picking someone out who will go far and win.
I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range. Any updates will be in BOLD. Hoping to improve upon the paltry 6/18 I have gotten the last two seasons. Let's hope for half right again!
Well, I got 9/18 again! I believe that's what I was doing before getting 6/18 for 47 and 48. I think that's about my limit unless I get almost all of them right or I have inside knowledge. I'm just happy I improved, even if it was boosted by knowing about Rizo and Savannah being on 50. Which, speaking of, is the next season, which I of course will be doing this again for, but man, that is going to be a complete crapshoot. Be back in February!
Monday, August 25, 2025
Survivor 49 Preview and Predictions
Friday, June 6, 2025
How I would've done Survivor 50's Cast
I know I just did a post with alternative picks for each of the players, but I wanted to take a slightly different approach here. I wanted to explore a scenario they should've considered. Since they're willing to do a 24-player cast, why not do one representative from each pair of seasons? So one player from seasons 1-2, one player from 3-4, and so on. Also, with the flexibility of returning player seasons, you could select a player from their returning season rather than their OG season if you want to get someone else. This way, the entire history of Survivor is represented. Jeff has said "everywhere in between" was represented when he and the rest of production completely ignored seasons 19-31.
I will pick 12 men and 12 women from every two seasons of Survivor. I'll try to take a member of the 50 cast when possible, to appease Jeff.
Seasons 1 and 2: Colby Donaldson
Clearly, there was mutual interest, so I'll stick with Colby here. Could use Jenna, but we also have All-Stars to consider her for.
Seasons 3 and 4: Sean Rector
Apparently, he was in the running? Haven't heard anything definitive. But he'd have been a joy to have back.
Seasons 5 and 6: Rob Cesternino
We know he was in the running, but cut last minute. Shame. Here's his opportunity. I considered Heidi, but I went with someone who was more in the running, it seems.
Seasons 7 and 8: Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Here we have Jenna. That is all.
Seasons 9 and 10: Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick
And now with Steph. Vanuatu, unfortunately, gets shut out.
Seasons 11 and 12: Cirie Fields
And now Cirie, since she was on Panama.
Seasons 13 and 14: Jonathan Penner
I'm using Penner here since I'll be saving Ozzy for later.
Seasons 15 and 16: Amanda Kimmel-Cooper
She may have been in the running, so here's Amanda. If not, you could also go with Peih-Gee, Courtney, or Natalie Bolton.
Seasons 17 and 18: Coach Wade
And here we have Coach, since his season was 18 (Tocantins).
Seasons 19 and 20: Courtney Merit
We didn't have Courtney above so I include her here. You could swap her and Amanda; it doesn't matter. They each represent the 15-16 and 19-20 pairings.
Seasons 21 and 22: Fabio Birza
Here we have someone who probably wasn't even in the running for 50, but who else would be cast? These seasons started the dark ages for Survivor...
Seasons 23 and 24: Ozzy Lusth
Ozzy represents these seasons since... who else would it be? Yikes.
Seasons 25 and 26: Abi-Maria Gomes
Apparently, she was in the running, so let's include Abi!
Seasons 27 and 28: Spencer Bledsoe
Why not? He might've been in the running, and we know Jeff loves him.
Seasons 29 and 30: Natalie Anderson
She didn't have a great end to 40, so why not? Could also consider Mama C (Carolyn, 30) here.
Seasons 31 and 32: Aubry Bracco
And now we have Aubry. Yay...
Seasons 33 and 34: Hannah Shapiro
I don't know who else it could be, but I like Hannah and I'm a little surprised she hasn't even been mentioned as a possible returning player.
Seasons 35 and 36: Chrissy Hofbeck
As much as I hate to snub Domenick, I have to go with Chrissy since the producers did. Oh well.
Seasons. 37 and 38: Christian Hubicki
Oof, only one choice between Christian, Devens, Angelina, and Mike? Yikes... Guess I'll go with Christian.
Seasons 39 and 40: Yul Kwon
Screw it, bring Yul back. Give him one more chance.
Seasons 41 and 42: Jonathan Young
Have to stick with the original choice.
Seasons 43 and 44: Carolyn Wiger
Obvious choice is obvious. Although I could've gone with Jesse from 43, then I'd only have women to pick from in my last two picks.
Seasons 45 and 46: Q Burdette
He was the most entertaining character of this bunch, so I'll stick with Q.
Seasons 47 and 48: Genevieve Mushaluk
Had to pick a woman based on the totals so far, so it was either her or Kamilla. We saw Kamilla more recently.
So here's how the new cast stacks up. New players in RED.
Men:
Colby Donaldson (1-2)
Sean Rector (3-4)
Rob Cesternino (5-6)
Jonathan Penner (13-14)
Coach Wade (17-18)
Fabio Birza (21-22)
Ozzy Lusth (23-24)
Spencer Bledsoe (27-28)
Christian Hubicki (37-38)
Yul Kwon (39-40)
Jonathan Young (41-42)
Q Burdette (45-46)
Women:
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty (7-8)
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick (9-10)
Cirie Fields (11-12)
Amanda Kimmel (15-16)
Courtney Merit (19-20)
Abi-Maria Gomes (25-26)
Natalie Anderson (29-30)
Aubry Bracco (31-32)
Hannah Shapiro (33-34)
Chrissy Hofbeck (35-36)
Carolyn Wiger (43-44)
Genevieve Mushaluk (47-48)
Look at that, exactly half the cast changes. I think I'd prefer this cast as well. And this way, they could have said we drew from every era of Survivor and meant it. No gaps.
Friday, May 30, 2025
Alternative Picks for Each of the Survivor 50 Cast
I already gave my thoughts on the Survivor 50 cast, and while it's a decent cast and it should be a fun watch, I would have to say for a large majority of them, there is a player who I'd rather see, and most of those alternatives are people who would actually want to play again. So in other words, I think they mostly got the cast wrong. And I will do my best to pick a player of the same archetype or at least of the same gender, and even from the same era, although I'm going to replace a lot of New Era players with non-New Era players. I'll go through and list an alternative for each player on 50, and then I'll rate it on a scale of 1-5. Here's what the scale means:
1- I actually prefer who the producers chose, but not by a ton.
2- I'm okay either way. Happy to see either choice.
3- I would kind of prefer to see my choice, but I understand.
4- I really prefer my choice. I need an explanation, Jeffrey.
5- WTF why didn't they chose my person instead of theirs I'm so mad.
Player cast: Jenna Lewis-Dougherty - Borneo, All-Stars
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jerri Manthey, Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
Rating: 4
Comment: I'm guessing they really wanted someone from Borneo to have someone bookend 1 and 50, but I'd much rather have Jerri on my screen again than Jenna. Besides, gotta have Jerri to go with Colby!
Player cast: Colby Donaldson - Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Rob Cesternino - Amazon, All-Stars
Rating: 4
Comment: How can they have Colby and not Jerri? Sigh. I know, Colby is one of the biggest names in Survivor history, but Rob Cesternino is up there as well, especially with RHAP.
Player cast: Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick - Palau, Guatemala, Heroes vs. Villains
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Heidi Hamels (nee Strobel) - Amazon
Rating: 3
Comment: Funnily enough, these two both married MLB pitchers. But I'd rather see Heidi, who I know has kept in good shape, since she hasn't returned yet, while Stephenie has twice. But I undestand going for Stephenie as she is the bigger name.
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Amanda Kimmel - China, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains
Rating: 3
Comment: Amanda is the only one of the Black Widow Brigade's F3 that hasn't played in recent years. There were rumors she might return. She did pop up recently with her real estate business in Montana. But I guess she's done with the show.
Player cast: Ozzy Lusth - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, South Pacific, Game Changers
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jonathan Penner - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Philippines
Rating: 4
Comment: Again, if we had to cast someone from Cook Islands and Micronesia, why not Penner? I know he's older, but I know his story about his wife would touch everyone. But Ozzy not being able to dominate in challenges anymore makes him just not as entertaining.
Player cast: Coach Wade - Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains, South Pacific
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Stephen Fishbach - Tocantins, Cambodia: Second Chance
Rating: 2
Coach is the first casting that I probably wouldn't change. But he's in his 50s, and I don't need a senile Coach. Although that'd be entertaining. I know Stephen has stayed in the community, appearing on RHAP, and I'd love to see him play again.
Player cast: Aubry Bracco - Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Edge of Extinction
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Abi-Maria Gomes - Philippines, Cambodia: Second Chance
Rating: 4
Comment: Abi is such an entertaining villainess, and from her social media, we know she wanted to play again and was in the casting process. Aubry to me isn't nearly as entertaining. And we've seen Aubry one more time (now two more times) than Abi.
Player cast: Chrissy Hofbeck - Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Victoria Baamonde - Edge of Extinction
Rating: 3
Comment: Like I said in my previous post, the show basically owes Chrissy, but I think I'd rather see Victoria. Not that she's the same archetype, but I think she's better TV, if slightly. Plus, she's younger and easier on the eyes.
Player cast: Christian Hubicki - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Devon Pinto
Rating: 1
Comment: I even struggled to think of someone for this. Christian is 100% a good casting. Devon, however, would be fun to see back, too.
Player cast: Angelina Keeley - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Hannah Shapiro - Millennials vs. Gen X
Rating: 1
Comment: Again, I'm 100% ok with this casting. Hannah, however, would have been an out of left field casting that I would appreciate.
Player cast: Mike White - David vs. Goliath
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Domenick Abbate - Ghost Island
Rating: 5
Comment: Jeff picking his friend over the only person to lose a tiebreaking FTC vote is certainly a choice. Mike isn't a boring character, at least. But Domenick would be so fun to see.
Player cast: Rick Devens - Edge of Extinction
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Dean Kowalski - Island of the Idols
Rating: 1
Comment: Again, no complaints. Love seeing Devens back. Dean was an underrated character who I was rooting for on his season, so there's that.
Player cast: Jonathan Young - 42
Who I'd maybe cast instead: David Kinne - 48
Rating: 2
Comment: I could go either way with these New Era challenge beasts. Jonathan was more of a pre-merge challenge beast, while David did a little better with post-merge challenges. I like David's strategic game a little more, though. Oh well.
Player cast: Emily Flippen - 45
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Carolyn Wiger - 44
Rating: 4
Comment: I think I'm in the majority in saying Carolyn would be more interesting than Emily, although both are good TV. I just wonder why they chose Emily over Carolyn. Just seems puzzling.
Player cast: Dee Valladares - 45
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Kellie Nalbandian - 45
Rating: 3
First off, why two winners? Feels weird. But I think Kellie was a diamond in the rought (would greatly improve with a second chance), so maybe Kellie should wait for Second Chances 2, if they ever do that.
Player cast: Quintavius "Q" Burdette - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Kaleb Gebrewold - 45
Rating: 2
Q is a great character, so I'm not complaining. But I really want to see Kaleb back, as well. But I will admit Q is a better character. I'd just prefer to see Kaleb's gameplay.
Player cast: Charlie Davis - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Austin Li Coon - 45
Rating: 2
Comment: I really liked 45's cast, I guess! Both these guys lost a final tribal to a young female. But if they were going to bring back Dee, I think they should've brought back Austin.
Player cast: Tiffany Ervin - 46
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Shan Smith - 41
Rating: 5
Comment: Shan is a villain, with her own "Shanthem". What does Tiffany bring? Uh.... she got voted out with an idol? She dealt with Q and Bhanu? She's not a bad character or player, but it certainly is puzzling to say the least.
Player cast: Genevieve Mushaluk - 47
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Karla Cruz Godoy - 43
Rating: 3
Comment: First, 50 needs more queer representation. But secondly, Karla was a more interesting character to me. She wasn't purpled pre-merge like Genevieve was. Plus, add another POC.
Player cast: Kyle Fraser - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Jesse Lopez - 43
Rating: 5
Comment: Why did Kyle have to return so soon? Doesn't make a ton of sense. And how they didn't cast Jesse will puzzle me for a long time. I really want to try to understand this, but I can't.
Player cast: Joe Hunter - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Cody Assenmacher - 43
Rating: 4
Comment: Another from 43 I'd love to see again is Cody. And he was more interesting than Joe. As endearing? Maybe not. I just feel like in casting they were too biased towards the recent seasons.
Player cast: Kamilla Karthigesu - 48
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Maryanne Okech, 42
Rating: 2
Comment: Well, if we're going to bring back winners, why not Maryanne? She was a very fun and likable winner. Although I'm interested to see how Kamilla does on a quick second chance.
Player cast: Male 49 returning player
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Hunter McKnight, 46
Rating: 4
Comment: I'm not going to spoil who it is here (look it up if you want to know), but regardless of how that player is, I'd rather see Hunter. I liked him. Why the heck not?
Player cast: Female 49 returning player
Who I'd maybe cast instead: Star Toomey, 48
Rating: 3
Comment: If we're going to bring back players from 48, why not Star? She was entertaining as all get-out, the few times she was on screen. But we'll have to wait and see how a certain someone is on 49.
And now that I've gone over alternate picks, here's an alternate cast of 50. I'm going to replace each player if I gave a 3 or higher. If I gave a 1 or 2, I won't.
Males:
Rob Cesternino
Jonathan Penner
Coach Wade
Christian Hubicki
Domenick Abbate
Rick Devens
Jonathan Young
Q Burdette
Charlie Davis
Jesse Lopez
Cody Assenmacher
Hunter McKnight
Females:
Jerri Manthey
Heidi Strobel
Amanda Kimmel
Abi-Maria Gomes
Victoria Baamonde
Angelina Keeley
Carolyn Wiger
Kellie Nalbandian
Shan Smith
Karla Cruz Godoy
Kamilla Karthigesu
Star Toomey
Now which cast is better, the actual 50 cast or my 50 cast? Obviously, I think my own, but I'm still happy with the one they actually chose. But there sure are some really good ones they missed out on.
Wednesday, May 28, 2025
My Thoughts on Each of the Survivor 50 Players
The Survivor 50 Cast has officially been revealed, and I'm somewhere between whelmed and excited. I guess you could say my excitement is tempered. There are a few things I'd like to comment on now, such as no players whose original season was between Seasons 19-31, and how we got 11 players from seasons 45-49. Definitely some recency bias there. But man, it is going to be so fun seeming some of these players interact. For each player, I'm going to rate them on a scale of 1-5 (5 being the highest) on how much I'm personally clamoring to see them back (which includes how much I'll be rooting for them) and what I think their chances of winning are.
After reviewing each player, I'm going to pick my Top 5 Duos I want to see interact. Each duo will be someone new, so I won't use the same player for any two duos.
Also, there are two rumored players from 49 on 50, but I won't comment on them just yet, since I haven't seen them play. After 49, however, I'll come back and talk about them here.
Here we go, in order of their initial season...
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty - Borneo, All-Stars
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of Winning: 2
They had to have a token Borneo player, and I know people were rooting for Greg, maybe a Colleen or Gervase. But Jenna works, I guess. I kind of expect her run to go similarly to Kelly Wigglesworth's in Second Chances. Possibly a purple edit with no real chance of winning. But, you never know. She will certainly not be a threat. My biggest worry for her is the older players being targeted early, just like they were in Winners at War.
Colby Donaldson - Australian Outback, All-Stars, Heroes vs. Villains
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 2
I don't think I've even seen what Colby looks like in recent years. Surely he's nowhere near as athletic. But he was the first legitimate star of Survivor, with people naming their kids after him. One thing I've wondered is if he may have had more win equity in HvV than AO. He had Hero pals on the jury. If he can make friends and get to the end, you never know. But like Jenna, I worry about the newbies ganging up on the "oldies".
Stephenie LaGrossa-Kendrick - Palau, Guatemala, Heroes vs. Villains
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 1
Stephanie couldn't win a season she had an edge on as a captain, so I don't think she'll be capable of winning here. I actually expect her to be an early boot, like she was on HvV, as I worry about her ingratiating herself with other tribe members, especially more recent players. Or she could slip on by. It'll depend on what the main driving force will be on a lot of votes.
Cirie Fields - Panama: Exile Island, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, Heroes vs. Villains, Game Changers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 4
Anyone else suffering Cirie fatigue? That kinda rhymes. And I didn't even really watch her Traitors season, although I saw her on AU vs. the World. I worry the show may force her too much on us, or may try to hand her the win. I'm okay with Cirie winning if it happens, but I don't want it in any way to be given to her. Honestly, I'm kinda clamoring for her to go out in some way she hasn't gone yet.
Ozzy Lusth - Cook Islands, Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites, South Pacific, Game Changers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
Just... why? I don't quite get it. On Game Changers, we saw he had physically declined and could no longer dominate challenges. That was filmed 9 years before 50 will film. So Ozzy will have to rely on his social and strategic game. IF he gets to the end, I could see it, but he'd have to get to the end. Also, since he got into the adult entertainment industry, I'm surprised they wanted him back. Hmm.
Coach Wade - Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains, South Pacific
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 2
Coach is such a great character, even in his 50s, I'm sure he'll bring something to the show. I wonder who he will say is the "dragon" of this season. There are a lot of choices. And honestly, it'd be smart for a lot of the newer players to bring him along as a potential FTC goat, like Sophie did in SP. I don't think Coach's chances of winning are a "1", as if he plays a similar game to SP and owns up his game at the end (unlike what he did that season), he has a shot... I guess.
Aubry Bracco - Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Edge of Extinction
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 4
Typically, someone fairly smart (often a woman) wins these All-Star-type seasons, like Amber in All-Stars, Parvati in Micronesia, and Sandra in HvV. Aubry could be that this season. Is the fourth time the charm? And yes, I don't really need to see her play again, but it is what it is. I just think she's really going to fade into the background with larger names taking more focus.
Chrissy Hofbeck - Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
The show definitely "owes" Chrissy due to the stupid twist of forced fire-making that surprised the cast of that season. I believe Jeff when he says it was planned (and not just put in because Ben was in danger), but I also believe he likely told Chrissy after the season how he probably felt bad with the way it played out and promised her a chance on a returning player season due to that. Otherwise, her inclusion feels... a bit out of place. She may get purpled, as I think she's one of the less interesting characters on this cast.
Christian Hubicki - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 5
Chances of winning: 3
I have been clamoring for his return for years. Thank goodness. I think Christian's chances are somewhere in the middle. He'll definitely have to keep his threat level low enough into the merge, should he make it that far. If he plays a great game and gets to the end, I could see it. It would have to be very similar to Cochran's game in Caramoan. But the problem is, I don't see him making it to the end.
Angelina Keeley - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 2
It's hard to rank FTC losers higher than a 2 on chances of winning. The only person to win AFTER losing at a FTC is Boston Rob. But I'm fairly excited to see Angelina back. I worry, however, that she won't be as engaging, funny, or meme-worthy. I really hope she tries to negotiate something with Jeff, and the show would be smart to open that opportunity.
Mike White - David vs. Goliath
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 1
Mike is a millionaire already, so he's not going to win. He would have to play the greatest game we've ever seen. However, he may be worth a few funny moments on the show. I just wasn't clamoring to see him, and we know he only got back on due to his friendship with Jeff, and how Jeff very likely told him he'd be on the next non-winners returning players season.
Rick Devens - Edge of Extinction
How much I want to see: 5
Chances of winning: 3
Dude was made for TV, and I'm excited to see him back. He's kept in touch with the show, being the co-host of the On Fire podcast for a season. Like Christian, I'll be rooting for him and hope to see him go far, but I'm worried about his chances of getting to the end.
Jonathan Young - 42
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 1
Yes, I am putting Jonathan's chances of winning at a 1. He has little to no social/strategic game, as we saw on 42. Is there a chance he has some on 50? Sure, but there's no way it'll be enough for him to win. His best shot would be to absolutely dominate the individual challenges and be likable enough along the way to win. But the moment he doesn't win one, he's gone. I'll still be stoked to see him dominate challenges, and whoever gets him on their tribe is going to be very lucky.
Emily Flippen - 45
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 3
She can make good points and I think if she gets to the end in 45 against anyone except Dee, she likely wins. I'm also surprised to see her, as I know she said on social media shortly after 45, that she likely wouldn't play again. Well, I guess we all have to eat our words at some point. There are certain players I know she won't like, such as Coach, Q, and Jonathan, and she's very likely to have someone like that on her starting tribe.
Dee Valladares - 45
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
I almost wanted to put Dee's chances at a 1, but Sandra pulled off the back-to-back wins, and they have similar games, so I could see it. But man, I wish they hadn't cast winners. It'll be interesting to see how she downplays it. I could see her being an early target, or make it very far. High variance player to say the least.
Quintavius "Q" Burdette - 46
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 1
Like Coach, Q is such a great character for TV. I cannot see him winning, however. His problem is that I don't think he'd be taken seriously enough. He's kind of like the male Angelina that way. But he is going to have some interesting interactions with people, I can almost guarantee that.
Charlie Davis - 46
How much I want to see: 4
Chances of winning: 3
Charlie is the young white male who's come the closest to winning in the New Era, technically losing by a single vote. I don't think he'll be considered a threat, which is good for him. I wonder if he'll find another Maria on 50, perhaps Jenna, Chrissy, or heck, even Cirie. I'd be down for any of those duos.
Tiffany Ervin - 46
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 3
I'm really perplexed by this one. There are plenty of African-American women in the New Era to choose from, and they go with... Tiff. Here's a list I'd personally rather see: Shan, Drea, Lauren, and Sai, and Star. All to me are either better players or characters. Tiff is a well-rounded Survivor player, but I don't think she excels at anything. Perhaps she'll be the Wentworth of the season and blossom more of a player and character.
Genevieve Mushaluk - 47
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 4
I was a bit surprised by this pick, mostly because Gen was purpled in the pre-merge on her season. I really like her chances, but I worry because of the All-Star cast that she'll get purpled again. If she wins, they better not. There are so many threats that she could sneak by and be the Parvati/Amber of the season.
Kyle Fraser - 48
How much I want to see: 1
Chances of winning: 1
Like... why? I don't dislike Kyle at all. As a character, he was mid. Not boring, but not the most engaging, either. As a player, well, he just won, so why? Kyle ties Jenna (6 and 8) and JT (18 and 20) as the players who returned most quickly after winning. Neither of them did particularly well on their returning seasons, although Jenna left of her own accord. I cannot see Kyle doing well, and his target as a winner will either carry him as a goat or be a target for him at some point.
Joe Hunter - 48
How much I want to see: 2
Chances of winning: 2
I just finished his season, so I'm not exactly clamoring to see him back at the moment, especially considering he wasn't the most interesting character. Will he find another Eva this season? There aren't many options for someone of that archetype. I could see him trying to Godfather his way through the season but be on the outs at some point, like Boston Rob was on WaW. He's got almost no shot.
Kamilla Karthigesu - 48
How much I want to see: 3
Chances of winning: 4
Yes, I actually want to see Kamilla back, but I wasn't counting on it with Kyle. They'll likely be put on different starting tribes, however, but if they both make it to the merge, Kyle better do everything in his power to help her. Although I could definitely see if they both make the merge, that putting a target on both of their backs. But Kamilla is one of the smarter players in recent history. I could see it. If she did win, she would tie Jeremy Collins (29-31) in the quickest return from the game to a winning season. Boston Rob also won two seasons after he played, but his winning game was his fourth time playing.
And there are two players on 49 who are also on 50, who I did see who they are, but I won't spoil it here. But at this point, I would give each of their "want to see" scores a 1 and a chances of winning also a 1, because no one has won any season playing back-to-back.
And as previously promised, here are 5 duos I'm excited to see interact:
- Christian and Kamilla
Or Christian with anyone smart. I want to see them decode a really tough puzzle together. That'd be fun.
- Coach and Q
Can you imagine the chaos? I bet Coach will make Q his dragon if the opportunity arises.
- Colby and Jonathan
The OG challenge beast and the New Era challenge beast. I know Jonathan must look up to Colby, so this would be cool to see. I know Jonathan is good friends with Boston Rob, so this is a natural fit.
- Cirie and Devens
Or Charlie, Christian, really any likable younger man. I bet she'll bond with someone like that.
- Aubry and Emily
I bet they will form an instant connection if given the chance. Let's hope they are.
And lastly, just for organization's sake, here's everyone ranked by their chances of winning:
1's:
Stephanie LaGrossa-Kendrick
Mike White
Jonathan Young
Q Burdette
Kyle Fraser
2's:
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty
Colby Donaldson
Ozzy Lusth
Coach Wade
Chrissy Hofbeck
Angelina Keeley
Dee Valladares
Joe Hunter
3's:
Christian Hubicki
Rick Devens
Emily Flippen
Charlie Davis
Tiffany Ervin
4's:
Cirie Fields
Aubry Bracco
Genevieve Mushaluk
Kamilla Karthigesu
And I did not give out any 5's. Well, it's hard to figure out what each player's threat levels are going to be like coming into this. And I didn't really want to hand out any 5's because that's basically giving away my winner pick. Anyway, I'll come back and add the players from 49 once that is over, and probably do another post or two about this cast before the season even airs.
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
My Thoughts and Grades on the Seahawks 2025 Draft Class and 54-Man Roster Prediction
The 2025 Draft has concluded, and I think the Seahawks had a very solid draft. They addressed positions of need, and I think this team will be very competitive this season. I'm going to go over each draft pick, my brief thoughts, and give a letter grade, and finish with some final thoughts. I am going to be a bit on the harsher side with my grading, so be forewarned.
Afterwards, I'll predict a rough idea of the 54-man roster. Likely going to be very wrong in some spots, but I'll do my best.
Round 1 Pick 18: Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
Very solid pick. It's not particularly exciting nor flashy, but it's what we needed. We can only hope he adjuts to the NFL and doesn't rack up a ton of penalties. We need to run the ball more, and Grey will help with that. I think Grey was projected more as a late first-rounder, so we could've maybe traded down and gotten something from it.
Grade: B-
Round 2 Pick 35: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
My favorite pick of the draft. He was often mocked as a late first-rounder, so this was a steal. Smart of John to trade up to snag him here while he was still available. I can't wait to see the backside defense of Love and Emmanwori.
Grade: A
Round 2 Pick 50: Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami
The first real headscratcher for me. We already have two very solid tight ends in Fant and Barner. Perhaps Fant will be a cap casualty in training camp since he is paid over $10 million a season. I didn't think we particularly needed tight end help, but we'll see. I've heard decent things, but we already have an emerging stud in Barner. Perhaps we can have what the Patriots had in the early 2010s with Gronk and Hernandez.
Grade: C
Round 3 Pick 92: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
It will remain to be seen how good this pick is. I think it would be foolish of us to think Jalen will match what Russ did in his career, our last QB drafted this high. Let's hope he can grow and learn from the sidelines and not get pressed into action too early. I think that's why we got Lock as well. I'm ok with this pick, but I think the odds are more likely that Jalen doesn't have success with the Hawks than he does.
Grade: C-
Round 5 Pick 142: Rylie Mills, DT, Notre Dame
Don't know too much about him, but I know we always need nose tackle depth. We'll be hoping Byron Murphy takes a big step in his second year, but Mills is good insurance.
Grade: C+
Round 5 Pick 166: Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State
One of the two WRs of this draft is going to be a hit and shine in training camp, and I bet it'll be Horton. WR was definitely a position of need, at least where we needed depth.
Grade: B
Round 5 Pick 175: Robbie Ouzts, FB/TE, Alabama
Are we going back to old school I formation football? Perhaps for some plays. If so, I'm down. He could also play special teams, so this is a very solid pick. But the thing is, we already had Brady Russell, who is switching to FB as well. I think only one can make the roster.
Grade: B-
Round 6 Pick 192: Bryce Cabeldue, G, Kansas
Yes! More midwestern O-Linemen! Hey, he might be a steal. Likely won't outplay Grey, but imagine if they both end up starting. I will never hate an O-Line pick unless we have too many of them, which will never happen.
Grade: B+
Round 7 Pick 223: Damien Martinez, RB, Miami
This reminds me of another late-round running back, ALSO out of the University of Miami. That being Travis Homer. He was a very good special-teams player for a while. But I think Martinez will be more of a third-string/third-down back. We'll see. Can't hate a late running back selection.
Grade: B
Round 7 Pick 234: Mason Richman, OL, Iowa
Our THIRD midwestern offensive lineman! Love it. Odds are only one of Cabledue or Richman make the team, unless they maybe push Bradford out (honestly, kinda hope they do).
Grade: B
Round 7 Pick 238: Ricky White III, WR, UNLV
Like I mentioned with Horton, one of these guys is going to make a splash in training camp, I bet. It might not be Ricky White, but you never know.
Grade: B+
Overall Grade/GPA: 2.81 (B- average)
Overall, very solid draft for John Schneider and company. I didn't hate a single pick. In all likelihood, maybe 7 or so (out of 11) of them make the team this season, with perhaps 3 or 4 playing multiple significant seasons with the team. But it's how significant those seasons end up being that will determine how successful this draft truly is.
Just for funsies, I'll also predict the 54-man roster and possible practice squad:
QB (3): Darnold, Lock, Milroe
RB/FB (6): Walker, Charbonnet, Martinez, McIntosh, Holani, Ouzts
TE (3): Barner, Arroyo, Saubert
WR (5): Kupp, Smith-Njigba, Valdez-Scantling, Horton, Bobo
OL (10): Oluwatimi, Sundell, Cabledue, Richman, Haynes, Laumea, Zabel, Cross, Lucas, Jerrell
26
DL (7): Lawrence, Mills, Williams, Murphy, Reed, Morris, Pili
LB/Edge (7): Hall, Jones, Knight, Mafe, Nwosu, Smith, Sheriff
CB (5): Witherspoon, Woolen, Pritchett, Jobe, Jean-Charles
S (5): Bryant, Love, Emmanwori, Reed, Finley/Bell
24
ST (3): Myers, Dickson, Stoll
Notable cuts: Noah Fant, Dareke Young, Anthony Bradford
Practice Squad candidates:
Ricky White, WR
Cody White, WR
Hall, CB
Bohanna, DT
Aumavae-Laulu, G
O'Connell, LB
Thomas, LB
I'm probably way off with the numbers regarding positions, but it should be fun for me to see how close I get! Training camp is still three months away... sigh. But it should be hear before we know it! :D
Friday, April 18, 2025
My Votes in Each Round of Survivor 50's Fan Voting
Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans (Lame title, IMO) has started its online voting as they're going to allow fans to have an impact on certain game elements. A lot are cosmetic, but some will impact how the showrunners and producers run the game. Here are the rounds and votes so far, what I said for each, and why.
I'm here during and after Survivor 50, so I'm chiming in with what the result ended up being and my thoughts.
ROUND 1
Rice or no rice?
I said: Rice
I think Survivors play a more intelligent and well-thought-out game when they aren't nearly starving to death. Operation Italy doesn't happen in 47 without the food reward. Give them rice, I say. Yes, I like Survivor to be tough, but this still allows the game to be tough. They had rice in S2: The Australian Outback, one of the toughest seasons. It also adds a potential layer of drama with someone maybe eating too much rice, them using up too much too soon, or someone not cooking the rice well.
Result: No rice
I find it hard to believe this lost, but I guess there are enough Survivor fans out there that want the show to be tough and not enough that realize that gameplay is better when they have SOME sort of food.
Forced Fire-Making at Final 4?
I said: No Fire-Making
I wish Jeff understood that by introducing Final 4 Firemaking, it only made it so that the threats were taken out even sooner, and we got less time with them. Some say Ben only won HHH because of this, but I say he only won it because of all the idols he kept finding. So if Jeff wants big names like Ben to get to the end, allow Idols to be good through the Final 4. Also, if you're a good enough player, you can stay under the radar, and you'll be a part of the majority at Final 4. Allow firemaking if there's a deadlock at Final 4, sure, but let them have a chance to vote first.
Live Reunion in Los Angeles or Fiji Aftershow?
I said: Live Reunion in Los Angeles
This is a no-brainer. The Fiji aftershow is downright cruel to the final tribal council losers. At least give them time to reflect on their game and prepare themselves for what to say if they lose. Plus, the live reunion allows us to get all players in on it, not just the ones who made the jury. I'm tired of the pre-jurors getting snubbed.
Result: Live Reunion in LA
It hasn't happened yet as of me writing this, but it has been confirmed 50 will have a live reunion and reading of the votes. Thank goodness.
Tribe Colors
I said: Orange, Teal, and Purple
First off, *sigh*, it looks like it's going to be another three tribe season. No way one of the three is the merge tribe. Anyway, it was between this and Blue, Orange, and Green for me. I chose the one I did because we don't see teal enough as a tribe color. But the remaining two options each contained colors that have been used 3+ times in the New Era. My second choice would've been Blue, Orange, and Green, because those are my three favorite colors. I guess I'd also be okay with Red, Green, and Yellow, since those were the colors in the first returning player season ever (All-Stars, Season 8), so it would pay homage to that.
Result: Orange, Teal, and Purple
I'm glad this one, not that it was a big decision or anything.
ROUND 2
Final 4 Challenge
I said: Simmotion
What can I say, I love Simmotion. If you don't know, it's the one where you have to constantly catch the balls out of the chutes and put them back on top as they make their way down a mechanism, and you slowly add more balls to it, increasing the difficulty. It really does a good job of showing which Survivors still have the best focus in the game. Plus, it's a classic going back to (at least) S18: Tocantins. I decided against the Final 4 challenge from 46 because pre-game alliances could affect whether someone decides to help another player here. They could abandon their puzzle and help the other player know when to catch their ball. I don't think people want to see that. The third option looked way too similar to dozens of other new era challenges: an obstacle course with a puzzle at the end. Easy one to rule out.
Advantages: How much power?
I said: Minimal power
There is a fine line between too many advantages and not enough. I think the consensus on it is less than what Jeff and production think, which is why I chose "minimal" power. Also, let the players play. They will be legends of the game, after all. And yes, a lot of great game moments have come from an idol or advantage being involved, but typically not multiple, and typically it's a situation not too convoluted or complex to understand. Lastly, there's a good chance a lot of viewers will be returning to the show for the first time in years, likely due to a returning player they like, so they really shouldn't overcomplicate the game for anyone returning after not watching the past dozen seasons or more.
Result: Dynamic Power
I wish my choice had won, and I find it hard to believe I'm in the minority (again). I've been listening to podcasts and seen videos of people who have been confused by some of the game elements, and this is exactly why I voted for minimal power. Should've made it easy for potential first-time viewers. Now they'll be turned off because the show is too complicated. I know I would be.
Tribe Swap or No Tribe Swap?
I said: Tribe Swap
This one I debated on. I don't like how the showrunners have only used a tribe swap when a tribe has struggled in the New Era. It should be more random. If they keep it up, players may throw a challenge to avoid a tribe swap. But maybe they want that. Anyway, tribe swaps add a layer of complexity to the game, and especially for a returning player season, we will want to see as many interactions between players as possible. If this were a newbie season we were voting on, I'd likely say "no swap" since I like to see tribal lines tested, not blurred. But again, returning player season. Got to have as many interactions as possible.
Result: Tribe Swap
I'm glad my choice won, but it wasn't that great or had that big of an impact. At least this way, there was more fluidity post-merge, although the original Cila tribe members sure have lasted awhile post-merge.
ROUND 3
Immunity Necklace Design
I said: Option B (Bird and wingspan make up half of the necklace)
Option A isn't bad, but minus the bird emblem, it looks like dozens of other immunity necklaces. Option B, however, is pretty sick. The literal wingspan of the bird makes up half the necklace. You would look like you literally have a mythical bird on your chest when wearing it. Whereas the other one is relegated to a round emblem on the bottom of it.
Result: Option B
Again, purely a cosmetic choice for us, but I'm glad the far superior option won.
Tribe Supplies
I said: Give them Tribe Supplies
This goes with the rice, so I'm sure people will typically have the same answer for this as they did for rice. I said to give them supplies. The "sweat vs. savvy" and the one-on-ones in recent seasons have been underwhelming and a waste of time, frankly. Don't make whether or not they have a pot or machete yet or flint a part of the game. Let the players be the focus. Also, why even have this be a part of the game if they don't even bother to show the tribes struggling when they don't have supplies?
Result: No supplies
Why, people? The sweat vs. savvy challenge Coach, Ozzy, and Q did was pretty dumb. Yes, it stirred up some beef between Ozzy and Coach, but it also resulted in Q losing his vote and not getting to vote all game. Boo!
Twists
I said: Keep them straightforward/rare
I'm a big fan of old school Survivor. New School has had its fun with twists, but I fear introducing twists could leave older players in the dust, strategically. Like in Winners at War, I don't want to see all the old school players go early. Give them a chance. Keep the game simple and give them a chance to run their game without having twists they wouldn't have had to worry about on their original season(s).
Result: Keep the game shifting
Just... why? This vote resulted in the "Blood Moon", which was an absolute flop. It also resulted in the dynamic duos twist at the Final 13, and I didn't like how much they deviated from traditional Survivor. Why should someone be punished for being in a group with a terrible player, ESPECIALLY when they didn't know what the pairs meant when they chose them? To me, that wasn't a great twist, either.
ROUND 4
Idols or No Idols?
I said: No Idols
A bit disappointing this final round of voting only had one thing for us to vote on. I voted "No Idols", but I could've been convinced to vote the other way. I voted "No Idols" to basically spite Jeff and the producers. The way they word some of these, they think we can't have a good season of Survivor anymore without a bunch of twists and idols and advantages. But here's the other thing: I'd rather have a season with no idols than a season with too many idols. I think this vote will be a bit close and I ultimately think there being Idols will win, but I just wanted to show Jeff and production more of us want a less twist and Idol-heavy season than he may think.
Result: Idols
Of course. Why wouldn't it be? I wasn't getting my hopes up on this one, but it would've been funny with no idols this season. I doubt they would've allowed that result, honestly.
Overall tally: 4/9 votes went my way. And of the votes that actually affected the game (removing cosmetic choices or where the votes are read), I only got 1/6 to go my way. One out of freaking six. It started to lead me to believe the votes were fixed/rigged, since I have a good pulse on the Survivor fanbase. I feel like had the twists all gone my way, we would've had a much better season.
Monday, March 10, 2025
My Thoughts Regarding the Turnover of the Seahawks Offense
In what has been a busy offseason for Seahawks GM John Schneider, the Seahawks have already started completely revamping their offense. Gone are Tyler Lockett, Geno Smith, and DK Metcalf. In is Sam Darnold, and likely a receiver from the draft or free agency (ended up being Cooper Kupp!). I'm going to make some bullet point overriding thoughts I have about these moves for each player, go into further detail, and then talk about the outlook for the Seahawks this coming season, despite the rest of free agency and the draft needing to happen.
- We knew Tyler Lockett was going to be cut
Unfortunately, the NFL is a business, and Lockett was making too much for the production he was providing. It was inevitable. There is still a small chance they bring him back on a team-friendly deal, especially since Tyler's real estate business is centered here. His veteran presence will be missed, but perhaps the Seahawks will bring a cheaper veteran in to training camp. - Geno's gone because he overvalued himself
Sounds like the two sides were far apart in negotiations. Sure, you can try to find a middle, but it seemed like neither side wanted to compromise that much. Geno's TD/Int ratio was only 1.4 last season. That's below league average for a starting quarterback these days. I wonder if there was any chance of waiting until after next season was over. But, the rumor is because they couldn't reach a deal, Geno wanted a deal with someone else, then. I think we had seen Geno's ceiling, which was a winning QB, but not a QB with success in the playoffs. Might as well try something new. - DK Metcalf is a great talent, but has his flaws
Fortunately for the Steelers and Mike Tomlin, DK's problems are primarily mental. He sometimes lets his emotions get the best of him. DK also doesn't have great ball security and occasionally will drop a pass. That stuff can be fixed. The Steelers will either make or break the rest of DK's career. I wish we could've gotten a first for him, but a 2nd will have to do. Hopefully, we can get a good player from it--more of a Bobby Wagner than a Marquise Blair (Both 2nd round picks by the Hawks). I'll miss DK's freakish athleticism, but I won't miss his immature attitude. - Sam Darnold, the next Matt Flynn?
Interesting how history sometimes repeats itself. The Seahawks signed Matt Flynn in 2012 after he had one good game after being mostly a backup. The Seahawks signed Sam Darnold after he had one good season after being a backup for the last few years. Perhaps we will take a QB in the 3rd or 4th round of the draft who may be our next Russell Wilson. I'll certainly be watching out for that. But Darnold likely is the starter at first, regardless of who we take in April's draft. But we also thought that about Flynn after we signed him. I think Darnold will do okay, but the key will be protecting him and establishing the run. So our next focus has to be offensive line.