It's my favorite time of year... almost. The NFL season is almost upon us and I am as excited for this year as I think I've been for any season. Will this be my most extensive predictions yet? Judge for yourself. Usually I go division by division and discuss how I think the division will shape up, but this time I will go team by team discussing what I think of them. Also new to this year is I do a four word game for each team. I use four words to best describe their outlook on 2019 (and often about the quarterback position). I got the idea from Colin Cowherd, who does a three word game for NFL teams on his show. Look out for the 2nd part in which I discuss the Seahawks Win/Loss Record in more detail, and I go over each game. An asterisk after a team's W/L record means they got a wild card spot.
Edit: With Andrew Luck's abrupt retirement, I had to adjust a few things, mainly the Colts season but also a couple others who are in their division.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots 11-5: Won't stop anytime soon
Is there any question? The Patriots still remain the favorites in the AFC East. Towards the end of last year Brady showed some signs of his age, and I think that'll creep in earlier this year, costing the Patriots a few games down the stretch. They'll still win the AFC East easily, of course because they have a bunch of young, talented players. Not until Brady and Belichick retire will this train stop and they have given zero indications that they will soon. However, for the first time in years they will not have a first round bye.
2. New York Jets, 8-8: Offensive progress or bust
The Jets are many people's dark horse team. Every year we see teams come out of nowhere to claim a playoff spot or division title. I'm unsure if that will be the Jets. They have Bell and C.J. Mosely, and Sam Darnold will be going into his 2nd year and is now under the tutelage of first year head coach Adam Gase. So this offense needs to make strides otherwise it could be a LONG time before the Jets make the playoffs again. Odds are they will, however. This team could go 10-6, but I'll stick with the safe pick of 8-8.
3. Buffalo Bills, 6-10: Old backs, young gun
Josh Allen goes into his second year (hence the young gun), but unlike Mayfield and Darnold won't taste too much success in his sophomore season. The old backs are LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore. The Bills will be competitive and shouldn't get blown out much, but they just don't have enough talent to win many games late.
4. Miami Dolphins, 5-11: Rosen gets screwed... again?
The Fins continue their QB carousel, as they moved on from what they hoped to be the first legit QB since Marino in Ryan Tannehill, but he never could get them over the hump. Now they'll go with a combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen. I expect to see a bit more of Rosen. I'll be honest, the Dolphins could be a team that surprises and wins 8 or 9 games, especially if Rosen breaks out. But if Rosen doesn't and the Fins struggle, they could draft a QB with their first pick next year, meaning Rosen gets screwed over by his team again.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-6: Less entertaining, so what?
First off, I don't expect the AFC North to be that good this season. Too many teams lost significant players. The Steelers were one of them. But they still have a great core of players. They still have James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster, two Pro Bowl caliber players. But their quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, will show signs of age. Despite that, yet again they'll win just enough to secure a division title thanks to lesser competition in their division.
2. Cleveland Browns, 9-7*: Hot start, cool finish
I think the Browns are a bit overhyped. I also think OBJ is a bit of locker room cancer. There's just too many egos on this team, and Mayfield is not the type of leader to keep things level-headed and calm the storm. I think they could get off to a good start and get people thinking Super Bowl (7-2 maybe?) but then come crashing back down to earth and lose a lot of their remaining games to fall to 9-7. This team is built to win early, but not late, but it will just be enough in a bad AFC.
3. Baltimore Ravens, 6-10: Lamar gets figured out
One of my bolder predictions this season is I predict the Ravens to have a bad year, culminating in a losing record. I don't think Lamar Jackson can succeed in the NFL long term. Much like his understudy, RGIII, he will have a disappointing sophomore season. The losses of Suggs and Moseley hurts them, and Earl Thomas probably gets hurt again, showing he just can't stay healthy anymore.
4. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-12: Hurt for Justin Herbert?
The Bengals are considered an afterthought right now. Not many people are going to want to tune in to watch a Bengals game. I don't see them going 2-14 or 1-15 but they are going to find it very difficult to pass any team in their division this year. I expect them to get a high draft pick and pick a QB in the 2020 draft, possibly Justin Herbert. They'll need to find Dalton's successor soon if he struggles at all in 2019, which is to be expected.
AFC South
1. Tennessee Titans, 10-6: Mariota's health is key
This team is just solid. I don't know what else to say. I like Mike Vrabel as a coach and I think the Titans get a few lucky breaks this year. Also, Mariota doesn't put up scoreboard shattering numbers, but he does make a lot of clutch plays late in games to make the Titans organization believe in him even more. But the main concern is his health, and if he can play solid quarterback with few to no injuries, the Titans will have a real good shot at the playoffs.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-8: Strive for mediocre, well...
These cats are mad. They had to be disgusted with themselves, following up a AFC Championship-berth season with 5 win season. However, they will face too much competition in the AFC and will only be average at best. They went out and got Nick Foles, who has yet to prove he can win outside of Philadelphia. He's an average quarterback at best when he's not on the Eagles. So when you strive for average, that's what you get.
3. Indianapolis Colts, 7-9: No More Luck Here
The Colts literally no longer have Luck after his abrupt retirement. You could expect this team to collapse and crumble, but I don't think they will. I think they play mostly inspired football, but without a true franchise quarterback, they'll struggle to win close games. Fortunately for them, Jacoby Brissett is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL, but there's a reason he's a backup.
4. Houston Texans, 6-10: Good luck Deshaun... seriously
You probably weren't expecting the reigning AFC South division champs here, were you? Well, did you expect the Jaguars to go from division champs to 5-11? Probably not. Anyway, my reasoning is something unfortunate that happens in the NFL: Injuries. Namely, I'm talking about an injury to Deshaun Watson. I hate predicting injuries, but with his horrible offensive line, I'm afraid it might happen. I hope I'm wrong. Good luck Deshaun. Also, losing Lamar Miller hurts, and their running game takes a hit as a result.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 13-3: Gotta beat the best
Going into 2018, the Chiefs didn't exactly know what they had in Patrick Mahomes so they weren't sure how to feel about the season. Now that they do, they've got nothing less of Super Bowl aspirations. They added the Honey Badger and former Seahawk Frank Clark. And, I think one of the surprises for 2019, Mecole Hardman. Remember that name. He's a speedster in the mold of Tyreek Hill. And speaking of Hill, boy are the Chiefs lucky he wasn't suspended. There was thought the Chiefs might have to cut him like they did Kareem Hunt. Now, with Hill and Hardman, if teams double Hill, Mahomes will be able to get the ball easily to Hardman. Watch out. In order for this to be a successful season, they'll have to beat the best, which of course is the Patriots. Couldn't do it last year in two opportunities. They'll get at least one shot this year.
2. Los Angeles Chargers, 10-6*: Chiefs in the way
I know this Chargers team expects big things in 2019, with notable young stars like Derwin James and Mike Williams. Barring injuries, they should compete well enough to get a winning record and a wild card spot. Like with Brady and Roethlisberger, however, I think Rivers could show signs of age as well. Hey, someone's bound to. However good they do, the Chiefs will probably do just as well. They'll either need a significant injury or collapse from the Chiefs, or just go on a run in the playoffs.
3. Denver Broncos, 8-8: Stuck in just average
Boy would it suck for Flacco if he lost his job to a rookie two years in a row. Flacco will begin the season as the starter but Drew Lock could take over if the team or Flacco struggle. I think they'll have an up and down season, but ultimately will have to look towards the future with Lock. This team screams average, with only a few notable exceptions like Von Miller.
4. Oakland Raiders, 6-10: Hard Knocks the highlight
Boy will it be fun to watch the Raiders on "Hard Knocks" this season. If Antonio Brown can stay healthy and out of trouble, he should add a spark to the Raiders offense and make them entertaining. But if the Raiders struggle too much, Gruden might have to make a tough decision to move on from Derek Carr and draft a QB in 2020. But more than likely the Raiders will struggle, leaving Hard Knocks as the lone highlight.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-6: Wentz healthy or else
Can Carson Wentz finally stay healthy all year? If he doesn't, Eagles fans will be very concerned for their future at the QB position. The Eagles are a good team, but it's not like their division is going to be really tough, especially the bottom 2. Jordan Howard will prove the Bears should never have let him go. The Eagles have enough talent to succeed, but with Foles no longer available as a security blanket, they'll need Wentz to stay healthy for a successful season.
2. Dallas Cowboys, 9-7: Zeke is not needed
I'm torn on these guys. On one hand, I want to predict a first round bye, but on the other, I want to predict them missing the playoffs entirely. I went with the latter. There's too much drama around this team thanks to Ezekiel Elliot. He's holding out, but the Cowboys don't need him. They're still a very good (if not better) team without him. And Dak Prescott is a very solid QB and improved once he got Amari Cooper. Will Garrett finally get the axe? Maybe Jerry Jones will just figure enough is enough and move on after the season.
3. Washington Redskins, 6-10: Jay Gruden, Sitting Duck
The only reason I'll want to watch a Redskins game this year is if they start Dwayne Haskins. Honestly I just see him as another EJ Manuel/Geno Smith type, but there is potential. Their defense isn't half bad, but I think if these Skins struggle to win games (which they probably will), we could see Jay Gruden shown the door. He's long been on a semi-hot seat, which will only get hotter the more the Skins lose. But we all know the real problem with this team is the owner, Dan Snyder.
4. New York Giants, 5-11: What are they thinking?
Oh, the Giants... boy I would not want to be a fan of them right now. They've drafted a running back and quarterback with their first picks the last two years, but haven't surrounded them with any kind of talent yet. This year will be all about transitioning from Eli Manning to Daniel Jones. So their QB will either be a washed-up has-been or an unpolished rookie. Yikes. And they may end up wasting the best years of one of the best running back talents in years in Saquon Barkley.
NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings, 11-5: Kirk on a mission
I feel like the division champ of the NFC North is usually the one team people don't see coming, excluding the Lions of course (Sorry, Lions fans). Last year it was the Bears. People are sleeping on the Vikings this year and I could see them pulling off some Minnesota magic. Kirk Cousins will be out to prove he can win in this league. Last year was him getting used to a new team, new system, and new teammates. Now that he's got a year under his belt with them, watch out.
2. Chicago Bears, 10-6*: Doink in the past
The Bears are still a well built team and were a kick away from winning a playoff game. Can't forget they have one of the best defensive players in the game in Khalil Mack. I could see the Bears hanging with the Vikes all the way to the end. They'll have to put last year's heartbreaking playoff loss way in the past to have success in 2019.
3. Green Bay Packers, 8-8: New coach, so what?
Aaron Rodgers is going to realize he had it good with Mike McCarthy. I'm not too impressed still with Green Bay's roster compared to Minnesota's and Chicago's. Also, I'm not too sure about the durability of Aaron Rodgers anymore. I hate to say it, but I think Aaron and Green Bay's best days are behind them. Matt LaFleur can only do so much as a rookie head coach, and he won't make that much of a difference.
4. Detroit Lions, 6-10: Someone's got to lose
The Lions aren't a bad team, there's so much competition in the NFC and specifically the NFC North. If they were in the AFC East they'd be 2nd place, easily. I like Patricia as a coach and they've made some solid additions. Just won't be enough... again. If another team in their division collapses they have a shot, but still a small one.
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons, 11-5: LI in the past
The Falcons will finally be able to put Super Bowl LI behind them and make a valiant effort to get back to the "big game". I like their roster and Matt Ryan always seems to be a bit underrated, in my opinion. Julio Jones will have a monster year, but more importantly their defense will have a great year and take big strides. I expect the Falcons to have their best season since their Super Bowl LI season in which... well we all know what happened.
2. New Orleans Saints, 9-7: Heartbreak catches up eventually
I hate to say it, but the Saints aren't making it back to the playoffs. Two heartbreaking playoff losses in a row is just killer. Brees is 40 and will be nearing 41 at season's end. They've got a good team, but they also have a tough schedule and I'm predicting a couple bad breaks for them. Just narrowly missing the playoffs. Heartbreak will catch up to them eventually.
3. Carolina Panthers, 7-9: Stuck with immature Cam
My oh my how far Cam Newton's stock has fallen. Remember when he was MVP? Seems like ages ago. He's now ranked 87th in the NFL's Top 100 after being #1 just THREE YEARS AGO. Yikes. My gut says Cam will not retire a Panther unless he retires early due to health concerns. Meanwhile, I'm still not sold on the Panthers as a team and I think they'll be so-so at best.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6-10: Not so famous Jameis
Will the Bruce Arians experiment work? Hard to say. Perhaps not with Jameis Winston. Like the Lions, Tampa Bay's not a bad team, they just play in a really tough division. I think their defense will be solid, but can Winston lead them to victory enough? Doubtful. I think Jameis' career will follow that of Josh Freeman's, where he ultimately becomes a journeyman backup quarterback, so not as famous.
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams, 12-4: Still too darn good
I hate to say it, but I think the Rams are going to be good again. I know I said in a post two months ago that I think the entire division (minus the Hawks of course) could struggle a bit in 2019. I really want to believe the Super Bowl hangover curse will happen to the Rams. They just have too much talent to go 8-8. They may have another great regular season, but that doesn't always mean they'll have a great postseason as well. Stay tuned.
2. Seattle Seahawks, 10-6*: Patience is a virtue
For the first time ever I reveal what I predict the Hawks record to be in my NFL predictions (usually I keep it in the separate Seahawks predictions). I see another winning season and another playoff berth. The Hawks could really challenge the Rams for the division title, but the Rams may just be too much. They are slowly getting better and better, filling holes left by the departed LOB and guys like Avril, Bennett, and Baldwin. We may not see too much success in 2019, but it's a slow ascent back to Super Bowl contention. For more on the Hawks 2019 season you'll have to see my other post on the Hawks HERE.
3. San Francisco 49ers, 8-8: Still don't like Jimmy
Well many are predicting the 49ers to double their 4 wins from last year and I think they will... barely. I'm still not sold on Garoppolo as a franchise quarterback. Dating a porn star? Also he doesn't seem to be able to stay fully healthy. The 49ers team isn't awful anymore, but will they be good enough to avoid another losing season? I think it'll be close. They'll have to wait another year to try to return to the playoffs.
4. Arizona Cardinals, 4-12: Kyler the right choice?
I'm taking a bit of a risk here and saying Kyler Murray just won't succeed in the NFL. At least not in his rookie season. He's small and unlike Russell Wilson doesn't have the stature to take hits constantly in the NFL. It doesn't help the Cards hopes that they play in a division where two recently made the playoffs and the other team is on its way up and could vie for a playoff spot. Also, I'm not sold on Kliff Kingsbury as a coach, but we'll see.
So those are all of my predicted regular season records in the NFL for 2019. Here's how the playoff seeding shapes up:
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 13-3
2. New England Patriots, 11-5
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-6
4. Tennessee Titans, 10-6
5. Los Angeles Chargers, 10-6
6. Cleveland Browns, 9-7
NFC
1. Los Angeles Rams, 12-4
2. Minnesota Vikings, 11-5
3. Atlanta Falcons, 11-5
4. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-6
5. Seattle Seahawks, 10-6
6. Chicago Bears, 10-6
All right, and how would these playoffs shape up? Let's find out.
WILD CARDS
AFC:
(6) Browns at (3) Steelers: Steelers win
These AFC North rivals face off, and the Steelers prove maturity and experience matters big in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield leads a spirited comeback attempt but comes up short.
(5) Chargers at (4) Titans: Chargers win
First upset of Wild Card weekend is the Chargers upsetting the Titans. Again, the Chargers go on the road and take care of an only somewhat decent division winner.
NFC:
(6) Bears at (3) Falcons: Falcons win
Yet again Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky struggle to win a playoff game. But this time is on the road in a tough environment in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Julio Jones and Matt Ryan's air attack is too much for the Bears.
(5) Seahawks at (4) Eagles: Seahawks win
The battle of the two blue/green birds. The Hawks come out on top late thanks to the defense making a big stand. Eagles fans start to wonder if Carson Wentz can win a playoff game.
DIVISIONAL ROUND
AFC:
(5) Chargers at (1) Chiefs: Chiefs win
I like the Chargers a lot, but they'll be hard-pressed to win at Arrowhead Stadium in January. They got blown out by the Patriots who were just barely able to do it last year.
(3) Steelers at (2) Patriots: Patriots win
The Steelers are still a very solid team, but are nowhere near dynamic or great enough to beat the Patriots on the road in the playoffs. Terrific Tom again makes it to the AFC Championship game.
NFC:
(5) Seahawks at (1) Rams: Rams win
I hate to say it... but Rams take it. I just don't think the Hawks have enough experienced players to win a playoff game against the Rams, especially on the road. In the two divisional matchups between Western division rivals, the home team comes out on top each time.
(3) Falcons at (2) Vikings: Falcons win
I hate to say it, but Vikings fans are so accustomed to heartbreak this should come as no surprise. They probably lose in heartbreaking fashion here in some fashion.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
AFC:
(2) Patriots at (1) Chiefs: Chiefs win
In a rematch of last year's Conference Championship Game, the Chiefs come out on top this time to finally claim the Lamar Hunt trophy. I'd expect a close game yet again, but this time luck swinging in the Chiefs' favor.
(3) Falcons at (1) Rams: Rams win
In another playoff rematch (from 2 years ago), the Rams get revenge from that loss to claim the George Halas trophy. The Falcons put up a tough fight, but ultimately come up short as both #1 seeds make it to the Super Bowl... again.
SUPER BOWL LIV: Chiefs vs. Rams: Chiefs win
In what will be one of the most entertaining Super Bowls ever, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs come out on top to claim the Lombardi trophy. The Rams, meanwhile, become this generation's Buffalo Bills of the 90s as they lose their second Super Bowl in a row.
So my Super Bowl pick is Rams vs. Chiefs, with the Chiefs coming out on top. Who will win the awards? Let's find out:
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Offensive Player: Patrick Mahomes
Defensive Player: Darius Leonard
Coach: Andy Reid
Offensive Rookie: N'Keal Harry
Defensive Rookie: Devin Bush
Comeback Player: Carson Wentz
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes
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