Ten Surprising Predictions for 2022 NFL Season

 The NFL season is still a few days away, and I thought I'd do what I've done a few times before, and that is make 10 bold or surprising predictions for the 2022 NFL season.  These are all predictions that odds are, likely won't happen, but I feel they all have a bigger chance of happening than most realize.  I'll come back after the season and see how I did.

1. The vaunted AFC West will only have one wild card team
In a highly competitive AFC, some are still saying the AFC West will have two, perhaps even three wild card teams make the playoffs, in addition to the division winner.  I think only one wild card team makes the playoffs, with the other two being fairly close but just missing out.  My prediction is the Broncos and Raiders just miss out.
After Week 5: This is likely.  Denver's struggling, the Raiders got off to a slow start, and the Chargers are inconsistent.  Likely only one of those teams will recover to nab a wild card spot.
After Week 12: The Chargers seem like the team that would get a wild card, if any, although I wouldn't count out the Raiders just yet.  This is still a likely possibility, but they have to watch out for the beastly AFC East.
After Week 18: I was correct!  However, the other two, the Raiders and Broncos, weren't fairly close and did not just miss out.  At least I predicted the correct teams.  Full point.

2. There will be a 1 point safety in the NFL for the first time
You heard it here first.  Here's how it'll happen: A team will score a touchdown late (less than 30 seconds remaining) to take a one-point lead, such as 27-26 or 30-29.  They will then go for a 2-point conversion to try to make it a 3-point game.  The opposing team will intercept a pass, take it out of the end zone, and lateral it to a teammate (or fail to lateral, and it becomes a fumble in the end zone that they recover).  Why would they lateral?  Because they are down by a point, and losing 1 point makes no difference, and it's worth it to go all out for 2 points with less than 30 seconds left.  Is it likely to happen?  No.  But it's certainly possible under the right circumstances.
After Week 5: Nothing yet, but I'm still hopeful.|
After Week 12: Still nothing...
After Week 18: Nope, did not happen.  Still could happen some day.  I can dream... (No points)

3. We will have a surprising MVP this season
Whether it be a non-quarterback or a surprising quarterback, I think we'll be surprised by who has an MVP season and takes home the award.  My pick is Kirk Cousins.  I know, I know.  It could also perhaps be Derek Carr, which would surprise people.  Most would expect a Rodgers threepeat or someone like Brady, Mahomes, or Josh Allen to win it.  Or maybe Russell Wilson.  But not Cousins or Carr.
After Week 5: Well it's not going to be Carr or Cousins.  It still could be someone unlikely, but it's more likely to be someone like Allen or Mahomes.
After Week 12: It looks like Mahomes, which wouldn't be a surprise MVP to me.  Although, if Tua or Hurts plays really well to finish the year, they could get it, and that would qualify as a surprising MVP to me.
After Week 18: Nope.  Mahomes won MVP.  I'd have given myself a point if it was Hurts, as he wasn't expected to be that good.  At least Mahomes ended the MVP curse.

4. Only 3 or 4 head coaches will be fired by season's end
Usually, we have 6 or 7 head coaches fired, but I don't think we'll have that many this season.  Of the teams that will likely struggle, they're either led by a newer head coach (Jets-Saleh, Falcons-Smith, Texans-Smith) or a very long-tenured one (Seahawks-Carroll).  The likeliest candidates are Mike McCarthy of the Cowboys and Matt Rhule of the Panthers, but I don't see either of those two teams struggling that much.
After Week 5: Well we've already had one in Matt Rhule.  But I'm struggling to find two or three others.  Will Tomlin after the legacy he built?  Will Reich?  Will Hackett or McDaniels after just one season?
After Week 12: We've now had two, counting Frank Reich as well.  I've heard rumblings about Hackett; I think he's gone.  But McDaniels is safe according to Mark Davis.  Who else could be fired?  Possibly Kingsbury.  I think Tomlin and Stefanski are safe based on past success.  So I'm thinking at least 3, possibility for 1 more.  We'll see.
After Week 18: Rhule, Reich, Hackett, Kingsbury, and Smith makes five.  Staley could still be gone, but I doubt it.  Anyway, 5 is just over what I said.  No points.

5. We will see a game in which both teams score 50+ points
In 2018, we saw the Rams and Chiefs battle to a score of 54-51.  I think we see another one of those types of games this season, perhaps involving the Chiefs again.  It will be a scorigami and it will be an amazing game.  Hopefully, it'll be a nationally televised game.
After Week 5: We almost had it with the Seahawks-Lions game which ended 48-45.  The season is still young. 
After Week 12: Still nothing, although the Cowboys have put up a couple 40-spots, including 49 against the Bears.
After Week 18: Nope.  A few close calls, but I don't think a single team eclipsed 50.  No points.

6. The Cardinals and Cowboys both miss the playoffs
Both are 2021 playoff teams that lost to NFC West teams in their first playoff game last year.  Well, both are now missing the playoffs.  We see a lot of turnover in NFL playoff teams from year to year, and I'm picking both of these teams to be on the downward trend.
After Week 5: Cardinals very possible, but the Cowboys are looking good so far.  We'll see.
After Week 12: The Cowboys are likely making the playoffs, making this prediction wrong.  Oh well, at least I'll get the Cardinals prediction right.
After Week 18: The Cowboys made the playoffs.  Can't give myself a point.  

7. There will be multiple ties this season
Predicting just one tie is not bold enough.  Nope, I'm predicting two ties.  Two different games will end in a tie.  And one of them will be a tie after both teams get field goals to start overtime.
After Week 5: Already have one!  And we've come close to a couple others (game-winning field goals in the final minute of OT that if they had missed would've resulted in a tie).
After Week 12: Still only one, but we've had a few OT games go late (Packers-Patriots, Packers-Cowboys, Seahawks-Raiders, etc.)
After Week 18: The Commanders and Giants tied, making this prediction correct!  Neither game had both teams getting a field goal in OT, but I still get a point.

8. We will almost have an 0-17 team (or we'll have a team start at least 0-13).
Now my 2022 NFL Predictions don't reflect this, but I think there will be a team that almost goes winless.  I'm also calling their sole victory doesn't come until late in the season, somewhere in weeks 14-16.  Likely candidates that could pull this off include the Falcons, the Texans, and my Seahawks.
After Week 5: Well this is my worst prediction so far, as the Texans just won making it so there are no winless teams through 5 weeks.  Oops...
After Week 12: Again, oops.  I should've realized there's more parity in the NFL.  The Texans may end up finishing 1-15-1, which is close.
After Week 18: Nope.  The Texans won three games, same as the Bears.  Oh well.

9. Russell Wilson will have growing pains, be only halfway decent, and fail to get a single MVP vote.  Again.
Maybe this prediction isn't that bold, but I think it is.  Anyway, I think Russ will have an up-and-down season with the Broncos.  His season as a whole will be all right but a tad disappointing to Broncos fans.  And he will again fail to get a single MVP vote.  
After Week 5: Nailed it.  More downs than ups, and it has gone even worse than I thought it would.
After Week 12: Uh, how about not even halfway decent?  Dude is a shell of his former self.  
After Week 18: I should've predicted even more boldly here.  I had no idea it would be this bad.  But I still get a point.

10. The Detroit Lions will have a W/L record that is just as good as or better than all of these teams: The Cowboys, Cardinals, Browns, and Patriots.
I think the Lions will be one of the NFL's most improved teams in 2022.  Maybe that's partially because they're on Hard Knocks, but I like what I've seen.  They've got heart and grit.  I think Jarred Goff shows a bit of what we saw in his Super Bowl season with the Rams.
After Week 5: Oops.  After their 1-1 start it was looking possible, but now they're three games behind the Cowboys.  At least the other teams aren't doing particularly well.
After Week 12: Well, they're looking a bit better, and could finish better with a record better than all, except the Cowboys.  I was close.  
After Week 18: Only the Cowboys finished with a better record.  I was so close.  Oh well.  I'll give myself half a point since 3 out of 4 of the teams were worse.

Well, there you have it!  I'll be back in January or so to see how these predictions turned out.  Wish me luck!

Well, I got 3 and 1/2 right.  That's about on par for these predictions.  I'd like to try again next season, maybe going even more boldly, as we see some crazy things in the NFL every year.

2022 NFL and Seahawk Predictions

 The 2022 NFL season is almost here, and with that comes my annual NFL predictions.  Now, with the trade of Russell Wilson, expectations are much lower for the Seahawks.  Also, my excitement for watching the NFL this season is tempered, since my team is no longer a contender.  However, that still will not stop me from predicting records, division winners, playoff game winners, and a Super Bowl Champion.  

I will also predict each game of the Seahawks regular season after that.  An asterisk denotes a wild card team.  Here we go!

AFC EAST
1. Buffalo Bills: 13-4
2. Miami Dolphins: 10-7*
3. New England Patriots: 8-9
4. New York Jets: 6-11

Some people see the Jets making strides, but with all the news surrounding Zach Wilson, I don't.  I think the Dolphins have a fairly dynamic offense with Tyreek Hill, but not as much as they'd hope.  The Patriots are mediocre.  The Bills win the division fairly easily.

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens: 11-6
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
4. Cleveland Browns: 6-11

The Ravens have a bounceback year, as they always do after a disappointing one.  The Bengals regress a bit, I think part of their success last year was catching teams off guard.  The Steelers are competitive but without a true franchise QB this is the best they can be.  The Browns have way too much drama and an inexperienced coach like Stefanski won't be able to handle it too well.  They also won't have the services of Watson all season.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts: 10-7
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-9
3. Tennessee Titans: 7-10
4. Houston Texans: 5-12

A bit of a surprise here, eh?  Keep in mind, we see surprising results at the end of the year we didn't really expect in August.  The Colts should be good enough to win a bad division with veteran Matt Ryan.  The Jaguars take a huge step forward and T-Law looks much better.  The Titans struggle as Henry shows age and Tannehill is too mistake-prone.  The Texans still have a ways to go, but upset some teams.

AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6*
3. Denver Broncos: 9-8
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9

To sum up, they're going to beat each other up.  I doubt any team will have a division record better than 4-2.  The Chiefs win the tiebreaker over the Chargers.  Meanwhile, the Broncos narrowly miss the playoffs as Russ takes too long to acclimate to a new team.  The Raiders are extremely competitive but lose too many close games.

NFC EAST
1. Washington Commanders: 9-8
2. Dallas Cowboys: 8-9
3. New York Giants: 7-10
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 5-12

This division is a total crapshoot.  They haven't had a repeat division winner since the Eagles did it 2003-2004.  I think that trend continues.  The Cowboys lost too much, while Carson Wentz has a semi-resurgence in DC.  The Giants and Danny Dimes make strides but not enough.  The Eagles fall apart (hey, at least one team that isn't expected to does every season).

NFC NORTH
1. Minnesota Vikings: 12-5
2. Green Bay Packers: 10-7*
3. Detroit Lions: 9-8
4. Chicago Bears: 4-13

The Vikings win the division with new coach Kevin O'Connell helping spur Kirk Cousins to an amazing season.  The Packers regress without Davante Adams, and Aaron Rodgers either gets hurt or seems to lose interest.  The Lions have a resurgent season, but it's not enough.  The Bears are just bad and Fields looks lost.

NFC SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11-6
2. Carolina Panthers: 9-8*
3. New Orleans Saints: 7-10
4. Atlanta Falcons: 5-12

The Bucs get 5 or 6 of their wins in-division (meaning they are 5-6 or 6-5 outside the division), showing they can beat up their division still but not other teams too much.  The Panthers have a surprisingly good season with Baker Mayfield proving to be a capable starter.  The Saints are a shell of themselves without Brees and Payton, but still have some talent.  The Falcons, meanwhile, can surprise some teams but not a ton.

NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams: 13-4
2. San Francisco 49ers: 9-8*
3. Arizona Cardinals: 7-10
4. Seattle Seahawks: 7-10

The Rams run away with the division, as is almost expected.  The 49ers are decent with Lance but he isn't able to clutch up some wins for them late.  The Cardinals get off to a somewhat decent start (5-2 or so) but then lost 8 of their last 10.  The Seahawks are more competitive than people give them credit for and they win 7 games.

Before we get to the playoffs, here are the coaches I expect to be fired based on these standings:
- Nick Siriani, Eagles
- Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
- Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals
- Kevin Stefanski, Browns

Generally there's 6 or 7 firings, but those are the only coaches I see getting fired based on those standings.  There may be some coaches (Belichick, Reid, Carroll) that may retire.  Also, I can see Matt Rhule getting fired if the Panthers do any worse than what I predicted.  Even if the Titans struggle like I predict, it's hard to see a well-respected guy like Mike Vrabel getting fired.  Also, there are a few coaches that I don't see doing particularly well (Smith-Falcons, Eburflus-Bears, Saleh-Jets, Smith-Texans, Allen-Saints), but I think their teams would give them another year. 

All right, now time for the playoffs!  Here are the seedings as predicted by yours truly: 

AFC
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Miami Dolphins

NFC
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Washington Commanders
5. Green Bay Packers
6. San Francisco 49ers
7. Carolina Panthers

Now for the playoff matchups: 

Wild Card Round
AFC
(7) Dolphins at (2) Ravens: Ravens win
(6) Bengals at (3) Chiefs: Chiefs win
(5) Chargers at (4) Colts: Chargers win

NFC
(7) Panthers at (2) Vikings: Vikings win
(6) 49ers at (3) Buccaneers: 49ers win
(5) Packers at (4) Commanders: Commanders win

Divisional Round
AFC
(5) Chargers at (1) Bills: Bills win
(3) Chiefs at (2) Ravens: Ravens win

NFC
(6) 49ers at (1) Rams: Rams win
(4) Commanders at (2) Vikings: Vikings win

Conference Championships
AFC: Ravens at Bills: Ravens win
NFC: Vikings at Rams: Rams win

Super Bowl LVII: Ravens over Rams

I know, bold, right?  The Ravens seem to have a Super Bowl-caliber season once every 10-12 seasons, and it's getting to the point.  Rams are unable to repeat, just like the Seahawks nine seasons prior.

All right, now time for some award winners: 
MVP: Kirk Cousins, Vikings
OPOY: Justin Jefferson, Vikings
DPOY: TJ Watt, Steelers
OROY: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
DROY: Aidan Hutchinson, Lions
Coach of the Year: Kevin O'Connell, Vikings
Comeback player: Derwin James, Chargers

Now, for my Seahawks.  I will go game by game, predicting wins and losses.  Not going to do scores, way too unpredictable there.

vs. Broncos: L (0-1)
I think we hang with them tough and give Russ fits, but either are unable to come up with a late clutch score or they do.  

@ 49ers: W (1-1)
We always seem to do well against the Niners and I think K9 (Kenneth Walker III) pops off here.

vs. Falcons: W (2-1)
A low-scoring unexciting game results in a narrow win for the Hawks, something like 20-16.  

@ Lions: L (2-2)
I expect the Lions to be tough this season, but not unbeatable.  But too tough for the Hawks.

@ Saints: W (3-2)
Seahawks starting 2-1 on the road?  Yep.  Put that in the win column.  

vs. Cardinals: L (3-3)
Unfortunately, this is early-season Cardinals, so they'll be pretty tough.  

@ Chargers: L (3-4)
I don't see a way we win this at all.  I just hope our defense doesn't get too embarrassed.

vs. Giants: W (4-4)
Danny Dimes struggles against the 12s and the Seahawks win another close, low-scoring game.

@ Cardinals: W (5-4)
I'd like to think that this game starts the downfall for Kliff, Kyler, and the Cards.  

@ Buccaneers in Munich: L (5-5)
Boy this'll be a tough one.  The Bucs don't play many easy games outside of their division, so they will need to take this one.

vs. Raiders: L (5-6)
In what may be a close game, the Seahawks just struggle to defend against Carr, Adams, Waller, and Renfrow.  

@ Rams: L (5-7) 
The Seahawks head to LA hoping to not be on a 3-game skid, but it's just too tall of a task to overcome.  

vs. Panthers: L (5-8)
Rumors swirl about Pete Carroll's job security, but given the team's low expectations he is not fired.

vs. 49ers: W (6-8)
The Hawks beat the 49ers again in what may be a game that saves Pete Carroll's job.  Expect this to be a sloppy back-and-forth game.

@ Chiefs: L (6-9)
The Seahawks finish with a record of 0-4 against the AFC West (unsurprisingly).  But hey, at least they're 6-9.  Nice.

vs. Jets: W (7-9)
The Hawks know Robert Saleh and are able to exploit his tactics.  

vs. Rams: L (7-10)
It depends on if the Rams will actually need to win this game for playoff positioning, but I'll say they do since I have the Vikings on their heels.  The Hawks can't wrap up the season with a W.

There you have it, 7-10.  Do I feel I'm being a bit optimistic?  Sure.  But Pete Carroll teams are always competitive, enough to get 6 or 7 wins.  I think the Hawks surprise some teams and actually do fairly well against their own division (I have them at 3-3 in-division).  

It's interesting to enter a season with low expectations, but hey, it'll be hard to be disappointed, then!  Go Hawks!

The worst and best WAR seasons I have seen for the Mariners

 I thought it'd be fun to make two teams of Mariners players.  One team will be the worst I've ever seen in terms of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and the other team will be the best.  For a player to be considered, they had to have played the most at that position for the Mariners that year.  I'll comment on what I remember and possibly compare them to today's players.  First off, the worst Mariners team:

Catcher: Miguel Olivo, 2005 (-1.0 WAR)
I vaguely remember Olivo, who we obtained in the Freddy Garcia trade along with Jeremy Reed.  He wasn't a great hitter (although he had some pop), and his defense really lacked.

First Base: Richie Sexson, 2007 (-1.1 WAR)
Richie Sexson started out great, but sure fell off quickly.  His average plummeted and the strikeouts skyrocketed.  He just became a huge liability in the lineup.  The 2007 team tied with the Tigers for the best record for a team to not make the playoffs in the AL, so one must wonder if Sexson had been competent this season, would they have made the playoffs?

Second Base: Bret Boone, 2005 (-1.1 WAR)
Already the second member from the 2005 team.  Watching Boonie's downfall was heartbreaking, and watching his press conference after his release was even more so.  

Shortstop: Yuniesky Betancourt, 2009 (-0.6 WAR)
Boy, Betancourt struggled towards the end of his Mariners career.  He had marginal success in Milwaukee afterward.  But his last year or two here were awful, because he was bad at the plate and at defense, which you cannot afford at shortstop.

Third Base: Chone Figgins, 2011 (-0.9 WAR)
Is this any surprise?  Chone Figgins is often regarded as one of the worst free agent signings in Mariners history.  His asset of being able to make solid contact and getting on base vanished once he came to the Mariners.  

Left Field: Brian L. Hunter, 1999 (-1.0 WAR)
I vaguely remember Brian Hunter, but I do know he underperformed here compared to what he did in Detroit.  He no longer was a capable leadoff hitter.  The next closest was current Mariner Jesse Winker, who is on pace to have the worst WAR season since Hunter.  Hopefully, Winker doesn't do that.

Center Field: Jarred Kelenic, 2021 (-1.8 WAR)
Yikes... is all I can say.  Kelenic still has yet to figure it out (at least offensively), and you have to wonder if he ever will.  He's not terrible defensively, but when compared to Julio, Griffey, Cameron, and Gutierrez, he's not in their league.  

Right Field: Wladimir Balentien, 2008 (-0.6 WAR)
This year Ichiro was in center, prompting the M's to trot out a few guys, and the guy who got the most opportunities was Wladimir Balentien.  Boy, did he struggle.  I know he struck out a ton.  I also know he went overseas to play a bit after playing with the M's.

Designated Hitter: Carl Everett, 2006 (-0.6 WAR)
For an organization that had arguably the greatest DH of all time, they sure have had some awful ones in the past 20 years: Everett, but also Jose Vidro, Jesus Montero, Jack Cust, Corey Hart, and Tim Lopes.  So far, Abraham Toro has started the most in 2022 and would be added to that list, but he'll likely be eclipsed by either Kyle Lewis or Carlos Santana, thank goodness.

Total WAR: -8.7 WAR 
Seasons with multiple players: 2005

All right, now for the best (that I have seen)

Catcher: Mike Zunino, 2017 (3.4 WAR)
Mike had an interesting blend of great defense and power.  He just couldn't hit for an average or ever hit anything less than a home run.  But 2017 was a special year for him, one where I think he should've been an All-Star.

First Base: John Olerud, 2001 (5.2 WAR)
John Olerud was a model of consistency.  He had such a great approach at the plate, and I don't recall him ever making an error at first.  

Second Base: Bret Boone, 2001 (8.8 WAR)
We'll be seeing a few from 2001, and Boonie's 2001 campaign is still considered the best by a 2nd baseman in team history.  Robinson Cano gave him a run for his money in 2016, finishing with a 7.3 WAR.

Shortstop: Alex Rodriguez, 2000 (10.4 WAR)
Sure he's not well-liked in Seattle, but what he did before he bolted for the dollar signs was just incredible.  We still haven't seen a shortstop have this great a start to their career in baseball since, although Fernando Tatis Jr. comes close.  

Third Base: Kyle Seager, 2016 (6.7 WAR)
Seager is now considered the best third baseman in team history, so it's no surprise one of his seasons is here.  He had such a great glove (he honestly should have won more than one gold glove) and a sweet lefty pull swing.

Left Field: Raul Ibanez, 2006 (4.5 WAR)
Raul Ibanez had such a weird career.  How weird?  He was more productive in his 40s than in his 20s.  He might be the only hitter ever that you can say that about.  He was in the prime of his career this season, and he had such a great left-handed bat.  His defense... was ok.

Center Field: Franklin Gutierrez, 2009 (6.6 WAR)
Surprised to not see Griffey?  Well, for this list, I'm only going back to 1999, which is far back as I remember watching Mariners games on the regular.  And Griffey's WAR in 1999 was 4.9.  Guti, meanwhile, was such a great defender that almost any fly ball to center was going to land in his glove, and he also hit for a pretty high average, too.  Julio, the M's current centerfielder, has a chance to pass 6.6 WAR this season, but if he doesn't, I'd put money on him doing it in 2023.

Right Field: Ichiro Suzuki, 2004 (9.2 WAR)
We all remember how great Ichiro was this season, setting the all-time single-season hits record.  He carried the 2004 Mariners, although they had their first losing season in 5 years.  

Designated Hitter: Edgar Martinez, 2000 (5.7 WAR)
Of course it's Edgar!  How could it not be?  Edgar had his last two great seasons in 2000 and 2001, and 2000 was slightly better.  Nelson Cruz came close in the mid 2010's to matching Edgar's WAR, but fell short.  And of course, anyone else to be in this spot has just massively struggled.

Total WAR: 60.5 WAR

Seasons with multiple players: 2001, 2000

I think it's safe to say a team of the players first on this list would likely lose 100 games or more, and a team of the players second on this list would likely shatter the 116-win record.  But that's baseball; you don't always get every player at their peak.  But when you get one or two, boy, it sure is special.

Thoughts on Castillo Trade, M's Future

Just a few days ago, I warned the Mariners and Jerry Dipoto not to give up too much for a player like Juan Soto.  Unfortunately, they gave up a lot, and not even for Juan Soto.  They sent four prospects (3 of the top 5 in the Mariners' system) to the Cincinnati Reds for Luis Castillo, an All-Star pitcher.  He's a borderline top 10 starter in the game and still should have plenty of productive years left.  He is only signed through 2023, so the Mariners may only get a season and a half out of him.  Was this an overpay?  It will all depend on how things shake out.

I understand that you have to give up a lot to get star players.  But man, losing 3 of your top 5 prospects does hurt.  The winner of this trade will be determined by how much Castillo can help the Mariners toward a playoff birth and run and how well those prospects do with the Reds.  

I get it.  The Mariners are desperate for a playoff berth.  I am desperate for that, too.  But if the Mariners make the playoffs once or twice, each followed by early playoff exits, and another drought ensues, was it worth it?  I'd say it hardly was.  However, Castillo will solidify a very good rotation even further for at least the next year and a half, and as the saying goes, you can never have too much good pitching.

The good thing is that 99.9% of prospects are not a sure thing.  We weren't even sure Julio Rodriguez was a sure thing going into this season.  Jarred Kelenic was a highly rated prospect and has still not panned out, and he might never.  At this point, I wish Jerry Dipoto had traded him earlier while his value was still high.  That's what he did with our prospects he sent for Castillo.  He sent them away while their value was still high.  

Obviously, if you trade a prospect that becomes a perennial All-Star or Hall of Famer and don't get the value in return, it becomes an awful trade and one of the worst in franchise history.  But that's the risk you take with trades in MLB.  Every team in the majors has made a huge trade that they regret.  

As Mariner fans, we can only hope Castillo leads us to the playoffs, and we go on a playoff run, and the prospects we sent away only have marginally successful careers at best.  If we aren't able to end the playoff drought and the prospects have great careers with the Reds helping them get to the playoffs, that's going to be too much for us Mariner fans to handle.  We've seen this happen too many times before.  

I hope to look back on this trade and not feel remorse like I do so many other trades in Mariner history.  I often wonder what Mariners' history would've been like if we had held on to the likes of Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe, David Ortiz, and Adam Jones.  

Before I fail to mention, the first full game played after the announcement of this trade, Julio Rodriguez went down with a hand injury and went on the 10-day IL the day after.  The need for hitting became even more apparent.  But Jerry Dipoto decided to go with pitching.  I'm not wholely against that idea because pitching often wins in the playoffs, but if the bats go quiet due to a lack of depth and injuries, that's going to really hurt the M's chances of even making the playoffs.  

We will know in 2 months whether this trade is starting to be worth it or it's looking like another dud trade to add to the list in Mariners history.  Let's hope for the former.