Over/Under Wins for Each NFL Team

The NFL on Fox posted the Over/Under on wins for each NFL team, according to Odd Shark.  I'm going to predict whether each team will get more wins, fewer, or the same.  It'll be fun to come back after the season to see how well I did predicting these teams.  If I get more right than wrong, I did better than Odd Shark.  So, listed is the amount of wins each team was predicted to get in 2019, and I will give my best reasoning why I think it's wrong (or right in some cases).

Arizona Cardinals: 5.5 wins
Prediction: More
New head coaches with new QB's tend to do better than people expect because people don't have game tape or a game plan for them.  Expect Murray to have a modicum of success.  I'll say 6 or 7 wins.

Atlanta Falcons: 9 wins
Prediction: Less
Hard to say.  The Falcons certainly have talent, but they don't always play to their ability or they suffer from injuries.  I almost said the same, but they just haven't been the same since their SB loss.  I'll say less.  8 wins.

Baltimore Ravens: 8 wins
Prediction: Less
Lamar Jackson is taking a slight step back in his sophomore season.  They also lost Weddle, Suggs, and Moseley.  None of those guys are easy to replace.  I'll say a down season for the black birds.  7 wins

Buffalo Bills: 6.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I predict Josh Allen will be among the three sophomore QB's (Jackson and Rosen the others) who doesn't really take a step forward in year 2.  He's gonna find out it's extremely tough to win in Buffalo. 4 or 5 wins.

Carolina Panthers: 8 wins
Prediction: More
I once watched a Jon Bois video (If you haven't heard of him, look him up on YouTube, he's AMAZING) about the parity of NFL teams.  It ranked how consistent teams are year to year with their win totals.  Carolina was dead last.  Meaning, they go from a bad season to a good season to a bad season, etc.  They had a fairly down year last year so I expect better things this year.  9 wins.

Chicago Bears: 9.5 wins
Prediction: Less
Teams are going to figure out Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky.  They're still a decent team, but won't live up to last year's run.  8 or 9 wins.

Cincinnati Bengals: 6 wins
Prediction: Same
I honestly don't know.  I haven't watched the majority of a Bengals game in so long.  They could be awful, but I won't say that.  6 wins is good.

Cleveland Browns: 9 wins
Prediction: Less
To go from a winless season to just two years later predicted to have the most wins in your division?  That's some turnaround.  Too bad for the Browns it won't be THAT fast of a turnaround.  They'll be improved and be more fun to watch, but will be too inconsistent and may have too many big ego's (at least on offense).  8 wins.

Dallas Cowboys: 8.5 wins
Prediction: More
Dallas is one of those fairly inconsistent teams.  They find it hard to string together back-to-back playoff seasons.  They'll do it this year.  They've got the best young core of players in the NFL.  10 wins or so.

Denver Broncos: 7 wins
Prediction: More
Odds are either the Chiefs or Chargers take a step back this year (or both).  When that happens, the teams behind them generally do better, it's just how it works in the NFL.  I see the Broncos as around a .500 team, so 8 wins.

Detroit Lions: 7 wins
Prediction: Less
They unfortunately play in a division with Aaron Rodgers, the young and up-and-coming Bears, and the well-constructed Vikings.  Someone's gotta lose a bunch of games.  5 or 6 wins

Green Bay Packers: 9.5 wins
Prediction: Less
A lot of people on the post which inspired this said the Packers had too many predicted wins.  I'd have to agree.  First year head coach and too many new faces.  Will take a year to adjust.  7 or 8 wins.

Houston Texans: 8.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I like Deshaun Watson, but I don't like the Texans as an organization.  Offense will struggle without a ton of help.  7 or 8 wins

Indianapolis Colts: 9.5 wins
Prediction: More
I think Indy will prove they're in it for the long haul.  They won't be quite as dominant as some of those Peyton Manning teams from the 2000s but still will be quite good.  10-12 wins

Jacksonville Jaguars: 8 wins
Prediction: Less
Nick Foles has only had success in his career in Philly under a keen offensive mind.  There's no way him alone can take the Jaguars back to a winning record... right?  7 wins, give or take.

Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 wins
Prediction: Less
Maybe Patrick Mahomes is the next elite quarterback.  Hard to say.  But the Chiefs more than likely won't have Tyreke Hill due to his off the field issues.  They don't have a running back with Kareem Hunt's talent.  Moreover, their defense went through a TON of turnover.  They'll still be good, but not THAT good.  9 or 10 wins.

Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 wins
Prediction: More
This was one of the toughest calls for me.  I could see it going either way.  On one hand, the Chargers aren't an organization known for sustaining success.  But on the other hand, they have one of the best young rosters in the NFL.  I'll say more, but I'm not entirely sure.  10 wins.

Los Angeles Rams: 10.5 wins
Prediction: Less
You heard it here first, I am predicting a Super Bowl hangover for these guys.  One, the division as a whole will be tougher, and two, they're playing another first place schedule.  Can't see them being awful, but they take a step back.  I hate calling injuries... but they might suffer a significant one.  8 wins.

Miami Dolphins: 5 wins
Prediction: More
Just when you think the "Fins" are gonna have a "tank" year, they go out and trade for Josh Rosen.  They still have a few talented youngsters.  I can see them competing yet again to get near .500.  6 or 7 wins

Minnesota Vikings: 9 wins
Prediction: Same
I'm sure Kirk Cousins is pretty peeved with all the talk of him not living up to his contract.  But I think he'll settle in, now that he's in a system for a 2nd year.  I don't see the Vikings quite doing as well as 2017, but they should be just as good or better than last year.  I'll say same, maybe one win more.

New England Patriots: 11 wins
Prediction: More
Ugh, these guys again.  At what point does winning become boring?  I think the Dolphins will still be decent and I see the Jets improving, but they still won't match up to these Goliaths.  12 or 13 wins.

New Orleans Saints: 10.5 wins
Prediction: Less
If I had to bet real money on one of these predictions, it would be this one.  They're coming off back-to-back heartwrenching playoff losses.  They lost quite a few players, notably their starting center Max Unger.  And their division is going to be TOUGH to win in, with improvements expected from all.  7 to 9 wins.

New York Giants: 6 wins
Prediction: Less
I honestly feel bad for Giants fans.  Their GM Dave Gettleman just makes moves that don't make sense.  They finally draft a QB of the future at #6 overall, and he could've been had in the second round.  He'll be another Blake Bortles or Christian Ponder.  And they're not a very complete team, still.  5 wins.

New York Jets: 7 wins
Prediction: More
Sam Darnold SHOULD take a big step forward in year 2.  Two years ago Goff came onto the scene.  Last year it was Mahomes and Trubisky.  Who will it be this year?  Best bet is Darnold.  They also added a bunch of talent, a lot on defense.  They'll be a borderline wild card.  8 or 9 wins.

Oakland Raiders: 6.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I'm starting to feel this "experiment" with Jon Gruden as coach and Mike Mayock as GM won't turn out well.  Too much flash, not enough sizzle.  Gruden's gonna realized Derek Carr may not be THE guy after all.  5 or 6 wins.

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I could be wrong but I'm in the minority thinking the Cowboys will win the division and not the Eagles.  I'm fearing Carson Wentz may be one of those guys that can just never stay fully healthy.  They'll be good because the talent's there, but not good enough.  8 or 9 wins.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 wins
Prediction: More
If there's one division I think is overrated, it's the AFC North.  And not because of the Steelers (although they missed the playoffs last year).  As I said earlier, I expect the Ravens to have a down year and the Browns won't be as good as they look on paper.  As for the Steelers, they won't miss the playoffs two years in a row, and without the distraction of Antonio Brown they just play hard, distraction-free football.

San Francisco 49ers: 8 wins
Prediction: Less
This could go either way.  Depends on the luck they have.  Last year they were not lucky (as I predicted), even though most  predicted them to succeed.  So as long as Garropolo stays healthy, they should be decent.  But the problem is I don't think Garropolo is that great of a QB; he still hasn't proven much.  7 wins.

Seattle Seahawks: 8.5 wins
Prediction: More
This could be a long one.  I think this year's team has the best all around depth in years.  Sure, we lost Baldwin and Clark and Thomas, but we've filled in a ton of holes with draft picks (Metcalf, Collier, Blair) and free agents (Iupati, Ansah, Taylor, Myers).  Depending on how the rest of the division does, the Hawks could very well win it (even though a lot are predicting us to battle Arizona for 3rd!).  The Hawks have a great blend of young players with veteran presences.  9 to 11 wins. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6.5 wins
Prediction: Less
I debated on this one.  When it came down to it, I don't think the Bruce Arians experiment will work.  I think Jameis is a lost cause and they play in a tough division.  I hate to say it, but I think the next team to have 2 or fewer wins will be the Buccaneers.  Although I don't necessarily think it will be next season.  4-6 wins.

Tennessee Titans: 8.5 wins
Prediction: Less
They're a tough team that's not easy to beat.  However, they just don't have that player that can take over a game, or that player that can make a few clutch plays late.  I'm mainly referring to their QB, but other players as well.  They won't roll over, but they won't go on any winning streaks, either.  7 or 8 wins.

Washington Redskins: 6 wins
Prediction: More
Boy, when are the Redskins going to get it together?  Maybe Haskins will end up being their guy.  I'll bet money he gets some starts this year, and he could even do well.  I could see them stealing some wins.  7 wins.

My Thoughts on the Seahawks 2019 Draft

I haven't done one of these in a while: A review and recap of the Seahawks draft.  The reason I'm doing it is because I'm pretty stoked about this draft class.  I'll go through each of the picks and give them a letter grade.  The letter grade will be based on when the Seahawks selected the player, and how well I think he fits our team.  Let's go!

Round 1: LJ Collier, DE, TCU
Grade: C
The reason the grade is a C is because he was yet another first round reach for the Hawks.  He could've been taken in the 2nd or maybe even 3rd round.  Nevertheless, he's been described as a Michael Bennett-type D-lineman, able to move along the D-line wherever, depending on the down and distance.  Bruce Irvin was also a first round reach and he didn't turn out half bad.  If LJ is anywhere near Michael Bennett's capability, I'll call this a win.  But for now, I stand pat with a C grade.

Round 2: Marquise Blair, S, Utah
Grade: C+
This was also called a reach.  But Marquise has some upside, many see him as a Kam Chancellor-lite.  He'll probably end up backing up McDougald for the time being and playing special teams.  Hopefully he'll blossom and become a starter for years to come.

Round 2: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
Grade: B+
The first draft pick the Hawks made that I was legitimately excited for.  He's a big-bodied and strong receiver like a Terrell Owens or Josh Gordon, but has speed that beats both of them.  He has the potential to be an elite #1 receiver.  However, he has injury concerns (who doesn't?) and he ran slower cone drills at the combine than Tom Brady.  I kid you not.  So he's not an agile receiver.  But if the Hawks can use him effectively and he stays healthy, he's going to be an elite receiver.

Round 3: Cody Barton, LB, Utah
Grade: B
The Hawks drafted two defensive players from Utah in their first four picks, so Blair and Barton should be able to help each other out and pull for each other in training camp.  Barton will be an excellent special teamer, but could he possibly start if need be?  Time will tell.

Round 4: Gary Jennings Jr., WR, West Virginia
Grade: A-
I just found out Gary Jennings Jr. has known Russell Wilson since childhood as Russ coached him at the YMCA he went to.  That's awesome.  Russ will instantly have a rapport with this guy.  Not only that, but Gary has very few if any glaring weaknesses and has less bust potential than Metcalf.  If I had to pick who has the longer and more consistent career right now (between Metcalf and Jennings), I'd say Jennings.

Round 4: Phil Haynes, G, Wake Forest
Grade: B+
Solid pick who will most likely be groomed to play guard.  With Iupati and Fluker as the current starters, it works out perfectly to have Haynes sit behind them and learn and take over in case of an injury.  Keep in mind we still have Roos, Simmons, and Pocic.  This is the first time in a while I can say I am happy with our O-Line depth.

Round 4: Ugo Amadi, S, Oregon
Grade: C+
He's a bit undersized, but will be used on special teams and in some nickel packages.  Also... he's a Duck... Nevertheless, he's a decent mid-round selection, but my gut says I don't think we'll see him on the team in 3 years.

Round 5: Ben Burr-Kirven, LB, Washington
Grade: B-
Don't think we really needed to draft two middle linebackers, but it certainly doesn't hurt.  And it's a local kid from UW!  I'm excited to see who will do better between Barton and Burr-Kirven, both were Pac-12 middle linebackers.  Good to have depth in case something happens to Bobby *knock on wood*.

Round 6: Travis Homer, RB, Miami
Grade: B+
This kid has the fight and tenacity that Schneider and Carroll love.  He's an-all around back, too, can block, catch passes, can even play special teams.  I would like to see him in the preseason get a bunch of carries to see how he does there.  Could be a dark horse pick that gets some carries in the regular season (Think Phillip Lindsay of Denver last year).

Round 6: DeMarcus Christmas, DT, Florida State
Grade: C+
It's Christmas in Seattle!  Literally.  I'm going to be honest, it could be fairly tough for him to make the roster, but with Shamar Stephen gone there's a chance.  He's like Poona Ford a bit, not quite as short though.  I could see him backing up Ford and Reed when they need a breather on rushing downs.

Round 7: John Ursua, WR, Hawaii
Grade: C+
Good-looking kid, but he'll find it tough making the roster, even if Doug isn't able to play.  Ahead of him are Lockett, Brown, Moore, and the two other Wide Receivers we drafted in Metcalf and Jennings.  If he's able to excel on special teams, he could make the roster, but as a fairly-undersized wide receiver that'll be tough to do.

Overall GPA: 2.77 (+.5) = 3.27 or B+
I gave John and Pete an extra .5 because they started with only four picks (before trading Frank Clark) and ended up with 11.  Wow.  Just the way they were able to trade down and not lose much value was impressive.  So I give their draft a B+ as a whole.  They did well for the most part, but time will tell how well they did based on the careers of these young men.  Hopefully this'll be a draft class like 2011 or 2012 where we can look back on it and say they hit it out of the park.

Star Wars Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker - Five Questions and Predictions

With Avengers Endgame out (and having seen it), the next movie I am REALLY hyped to see is Star Wars Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker.  The teaser trailer and title were announced/released two weeks ago, and I've had some time to dwell on them.  Below are five questions people might have about the film, and I put forth multiple choice possibilities and choose my answer with reasoning.  It'll be interesting to go back here 8 months from now (Yikes!) and see how close I was.

I have now seen the Rise of Skywalker.  For my full thoughts on it, you'll have to see my more recent post here.  *SPOILER ALERT* I will of course be discussing spoilers so this is your warning.

1. So, apparently Palpatine returns, based on his cackle at the end of the teaser trailer.  How is he able to return?
A. He returns as a spirit, much like a Force Ghost (The dark side version of it possibly).  Not able to physically appear but in spirit.
B. A clone was made of him
C. He survived falling down the ventilation shaft.
D. He inhabits the body of someone or something else (Like Voldemort)

Answer: I'm gonna go with A, but neither C nor D would surprise me.  My prediction is that there is a Dark Side way of becoming one with the Force.  Obviously, we'd hear him and he'd be able to influence Kylo Ren and say things like, "Do what your grandfather failed to do."  I only included B because I believe that happened in the Expanded Universe novels, although I doubt they'd take that idea straight from them. Option D would be cool to see, however.  Could we see him inhabit Snoke's body?

The closest actual answer would be C.  He had some assistance, clearly, but never fully died.  

2. What will the relationship of Kylo Ren and Rey be like at the end of Episode IX?
A. Non-existent, as one will be dead.
B. Still enemies
C. Allies, or at least will have a truce
D. Romantic

Answer: I want it to be D, but Rey's parentage is still in question.  Kylo told Rey her parents were nobodies, but he could have been lying (or possibly misled by Snoke).  She still could be his sister or cousin.  I'll go with C as my prediction, but I want it to be D.  They won't kill Rey off, and I don't think JJ Abrams will want to kill Kylo off either, so I don't think it will be A.  And I highly doubt they'll still be enemies; it would just feel like we need another film to resolve their conflict.

Officially it is A 😢, but for a brief moment is was C and D.  I should have known Ben/Kylo would die because this film was billed for it "concluding the Skywalker saga", and if he had survived, the Skywalkers would live on.

3. Speaking of Rey's parentage, what is it?
A. Kylo was telling the truth.  Her parents were nobodies.
B. Luke is her father.  He abandoned her mother, and her mother (And stepfather?) left her on Jakku.
C. Han and Leia are her parents.  She was conceived in secret and hidden on Jakku.
D. She is a manifestation of the Force, much like Anakin.

Answer: I just find it difficult to be B or C.  Wouldn't they know about it and want to tell her?  Also, I've noticed a bit of a conflict between JJ Abrams and Rian Johnson, who directed Episode VIII.  They had different ideas for the films, so I think it might not be A.  I'm leaning more and more to D.  It would be kind of a copy cat origin story, but if they do it differently and uniquely it could work.  So I'll go with D, with A as my second choice.  They have to address this in Ep. IX, at least to some extent.

Wow, none of the above.  Technically A is right, but they were trying to be nobodies in order to protect their daughter from her grandfather.  I had a feeling JJ would decide Rian Johnson's choice wasn't good enough, I just had no idea she would be related to him.


4. What does the title, "The Rise of Skywalker" mean?
A. Skywalker is or becomes a title for Jedi.  Much like "Darth" is for the Sith, Skywalker becomes a title for Jedi as the Jedi rise and Rey (and possibly Kylo/Ben) start a new Jedi order.  So Rey would be "Skywalker Rey".
B. Rey is a Skywalker, and she learns her true identity.
C. Luke's influence as a Force Ghost is critical to the Resistance and he aids in their victory.
D. Luke and Palpatine have a Force Ghost battle and Luke comes out on top.
E. Kylo sheds his name "Kylo Ren" and becomes "Ben Skywalker" (Not Solo).

Answer: It's a pretty vague title.  I got answer "A" from someone's theory on Reddit, which I really liked obviously.  Although you wouldn't see a title called "The Rise of Darth".  But I can see Skywalker referring to a group of people and not just one person.  B is obviously a candidate.  C and D kind of go together and both could be possible.  I know D sounds ludicrous but I could see it happening.  E could mean the title is about Kylo Ren, since he has Skywalker blood.  If he returns to the light he could identify himself "as a Skywalker".  The title of Episode VII referred to Rey (indirectly).  The title of Episode VIII referred to Luke.  I think the title of Episode IX will refer to someone else as well, which leaves only Kylo Ren.  It could be about his redemption and return to the light side, so I'll go with E.  However, most people are figuring this must refer to Luke, so my next best guess would be "C".

The actual answer is kind of a cross between A and B.  Rey assumed the Skywalker name, almost as if it were a title.  My friend even said it was like Luke or Leia adopted her from beyond the grave. 

5. The fates of the following people:
A. Kylo Ren:
                a. Dead
                b. Alive, but still Dark
                c. Alive and turned to Light

Answer: C.  It's gotta be, right?  I touched on this in question in number 3, and I said I don't think they'll kill Kylo off.  At least I hope they don't.  If it was B they would need another film or something to resolve this, wouldn't they?  It would be like leaving Darth Vader alive and still dark side oriented after "Return of the Jedi".

I should have known, like I said above.  He sacrificed himself for Rey and hopefully Rey would respect his memory and tell everyone he was a hero.

B. Captain Phasma:
                a. She died in Episode VIII
                b. She comes back in IX but dies
                c. She comes back in IX and lives
               
Answer: B.  JJ and Rian have an internal conflict going on from what I've gathered.  JJ will want to undo what Rian did and bring back Captain Phasma, only to have her die for real.

Falling that far into a pit of fire on a ship going down is hard to survive, especially for a non-Sith/Jedi.  I think bringing her back would've been a slap in the face to Rian Johnson.

C. General Hux:
                a. Dead
                b. Dead
                c. Dead

Answer: All of the above.  Is there any chance this guy survives?  He clearly has no good in his heart.  The only question is how he will die.

Well, yes, but who saw him helping out the good guys?  Not me!  Kylo clearly got on his bad side, so Hux took action.  Too bad for him General Pryde saw right through him.

                C. a. How  will Hux die?
                                1. Rey kills him
                                2. Finn or Poe kills him
                                3. Kylo turns on him and kills him

Answer: Number 1 wouldn't be satisfying enough.  I'd like to see 2, have a battle between non-Force users.  But I think it will be 3.

I didn't even consider him being a spy and one of the first order generals killing him.  Gotta consider every possibility.

D. Leia:
                a. Alive and present
                b. Alive but gone away/missing
                c. Dead

Answer: I almost forgot about Leia.  Hard to say how much of an impact she'll have, with Carrie Fisher passing before they could film any of Episode IX.  I will say C, and they'll make it as tear-inducing as possible.

I was right.  I was impressed with how much footage they had of Carrie and how they were able to use it.  It was tear-inducing, although I didn't cry myself.  But I felt like it after seeing Chewbacca's reacting to Leia's passing.

Well, there you  have it.  I answered the five (plus) biggest questions about Episode IX.  It's still almost 8 months away and I cannot wait for it to get here! 

Meh, not terrible predictions, but some really caught me off guard.  Click the link above to see my full thoughts on Rise of Skywalker. 🙂

My Belated Thoughts on Russell Wilson's Contract Extension

It's a little late, but better late than never.  The night of April 15, 2019, Russell and his agent signed a contract extension with the Seahawks, a total of 4 years and $140 million.  This makes Russ, for the time being, the NFL's highest paid player.  Does he deserve it?  Should the Hawks have given in?  Will it be worth it?  My answer to all of those: Yes.

First off, he does indeed deserve it.  He has produced a winning season in every year of his career, made it to the playoffs in all but one, and won a playoff game in all but two.  I'd argue if he was given full control and we didn't force the running game in the playoff game against Dallas that we would've won that, as close as it was.  So that would've meant winning a playoff game in all but one season.  Most quarterbacks don't even have multiple seasons of winning a playoff game period, let alone at the start of their careers.  And Russ has done this despite a massive amount of roster turnover, despite an offensive line, that while in transition, was continually graded as one of the worst in the league.  He lost a Pro Bowl running back in Marshawn Lynch, yet still puts up Pro Bowl numbers himself.  His rushing yards may be down, but he continues to be one of the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history.  He's done nothing but succeed since he entered the league.

The Hawks had to give in.  Russell is already on his way to being the greatest quarterback in team history (and some would argue he already is since he's the only one to win a Super Bowl and has the numbers to back it up).  He's the kind of talent and presence that is not easily replaced.  By re-signing Russell, the Hawks put their fans at ease.  We could've worried year after year if Russ was going to leave or get traded, but the organization gets the security of knowing they have a Top 10 (borderline Top 5) quarterback for the next five years at least.  After Brady, Big Ben, and Brees retire Russ could very well be Top 5.  These kinds of quarterbacks stay with their teams for years and years because they are so hard to replace.  Once you get a quarterback of this caliber, you do what it takes to hold on to him.  And with Russ still in his very productive years, the Hawks had to dig deep in their wallet to hold on to their man.

Many fans think his contract will handicap and hurt the team.  I disagree.  I think in the long run it will be worth it.  The Hawks had most of their success between 2013-2015, when a majority of their players were on rookie contracts.  Having a core group of young players succeed on rookie contracts is essential for a team's success in today's NFL.  That hasn't changed.  The Hawks have been a borderline playoff team the last 3 or 4 years because they have not drafted as well as they used to.  Remember when we drafted Malik McDowell?  He'll go down with Aaron Curry as one of the largest busts in Hawks history.  The Hawks still need to draft well in order to have Super Bowl-type success.  Nothing's changed there.  I'll take a borderline playoff team and a potential Super Bowl team if we draft well, rather than losing Russ and being faced with uncertainty and up and down seasons.

The run the Seahawks had from 2012 to 2015 was the best 3 or 4 year run in franchise history.  The last few years haven't been quite as successful, but at least they've been interesting and winning seasons.  I am confident that the Hawks will have another run like 2012-2015 sometime in the future before Russell Wilson's career is up.  We have to hold on to him though.  And the Hawks will have to find a few diamonds in the rough in the draft.  With Russ signed through 2023, the Hawks just increased their odds of making a Super Bowl run in that same time frame.

I Believe the Mariners are Doing the Right Thing (Plus a Condensed Version of my 2019 MLB Predictions)

The Mariners head into the 2019 MLB season having gone through a lot of changes.  Significant players gone are James Paxton, Mike Zunino, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, and Ben Gamel.  And those are just the players who were traded.  In exchange the Mariners received a mix of prospects and a couple veterans.  And to be totally and completely honest, I think general manager Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners organization as a whole are doing the right thing.  Even if the Mariners were going to win with the core of players above, they weren't going to go very far.  They were decent, but not great.  We need to strive for great to finally break this long playoff drought.

As Mariners fans, we've almost become numb to losing and disappointment.  It's not expected, but it's never a surprise, either.  Just like the rain we so often get in the Puget Sound area, it's never welcomed but always a reason for gloominess.  So this 2019 season, the Mariners are not expected to do a ton of winning.  And I am content with that.  This is a transition year.  Mostly, I'm excited to see how new faces do, and see how the youngsters do if and when they're called up from the minors. 

So I thought it would be fun to make a team that may be the core of this roster some day.  It might not look exactly like this, but it will be fun to see how close I come to getting it right. 

C: Nazvaez/Trade Acquisition/Raleigh
1B: White/Healy
2B: Shed Long
SS: JP Crawford
3B: Seager/Trade Acquisition
OF: Some combination of Haniger, Smith, Kelenic, Rodriguez, Bishop, and Lewis.

SP: Sheffield, Kikuchi, Gonzalez, Carlson, Gilbert, FA/Trade
RP: Dunn, Festa, Mills, Rumbelow, Tuivailala, FA/Trade

The could be the roster come 2021 or so.  We'll see.  But having acquired a group of talented youngsters, I'm finally excited for the future of the Seattle Mariners. 

So onto my predictions for 2019.  As I'm not too excited for this baseball season as a whole, I'm just predicting the playoff teams and division winners.  As for the Mariners, I'll predict their record to be 73-89.  Just barely missing 90 losses. 

AL Division Winners: Astros, Twins (you heard it here first), Yankees
Wild Cards: Red Sox and Indians

NL Division Winners: Dodgers, Cardinals, and Phillies
Wild Cards: Cubs and Nationals

Wild Card Winners: Red Sox and Cubs

AL Divisional Matchups:
Yankees vs. Red Sox (What a matchup!): Yankees win... The-e-e-e-e Yankees win!
Twins vs. Astros: Astros win

NL Divisional Matchups:
Dodgers vs. Cubs: Dodgers win
Phillies vs. Cardinals: Cardinals win

ALCS: Yankees beat Astros
NLCS: Dodgers beat Cardinals

World Series: Yankees in six games

So, there you have it, the Yankees winning the World Series.  Just like old times.  Good for James Paxton if that does indeed happen.  As for the Mariners, they will play spoiler and knock the Athletics out of the Wild Card race in the final series of the season.  :) 

Fortnite Appreciation Post

A free to play game that works on virtually every video game console, including PC.  Who would've though that would exist?  Not me.  But it does, and it is called Fortnite, made by Epic Games.  The regular Fortnite Battle Royale games pit 100 players against each other in a fight to the end to see which player or players can outlast all the rest. 

I got into Fornite around the late summer of 2018.  Now Fortnite has what they call "Seasons".  Just like with the rest of the world, Fornite has four seasons per year that change about the same time ours do.  Each season has a different theme, and introduces a significant change in the map.  I got into Fortnite in the middle of Season 5, playing it on the Xbox One. 

The map stays the same for each game, but will get updated every few weeks, and especially with each new season.  This way, players can get accustomed to the map, knowing where best to find loot, hide, and how to navigate it quickly.  Also what's cool is the map is filled with named locations that have alliterative titles, such as "Tilted Towers" and "Dusty Divot" and "Junk Junction".  And with each game there is what's called a "storm".  The storm will start out as a circle that takes up somewhere around 1/3 of the map, but then get smaller and smaller until there are no players left.  If you are outside of the circle in the storm, you take health damage.  Navigating to get inside the circle is something players must do to succeed. 

As for me as a player, well to put it nicely, I am not the best.  I have won squad games (being carried).  And just last season (Season 7), I got my first solo victory.  It was a huge accomplishment, and for the longest time I felt like I was never going to get a solo victory.  It took me over 300 games to get it.  I now have two solo victories, getting another one fairly recently.  The most kills I've ever gotten in a solo game is 4, to my recollection, which was also my second victory.  And the most kills I've gotten in any game was a Team Rumble, 9.  So yes, I'm not too good at Fortnite, but I am totally fine with that. 

There are mainly two strategies you can take with Fortnite.  One, you can be aggressive, attack everyone you come across, and try to get as many kills as possible.  The other one is being sneaky and relying on stealth, hoping those skills will progress you as far as you can before you are forced to engage other players.  I am in the second group.  Not since my high school days playing Halo have I been somewhat decent at killing other human players, I will admit.  But, with experience I have become very good at being sneaky and avoiding other players.  I'm not ashamed to play this way; it gives me satisfaction to know I progressed further in the game and have a better placement in the game than a lot of the more aggressive players. 

My favorite thing to do in the game is completing weekly and daily goals.  These goals can range anywhere from landing at a certain location, to getting a kill with a certain type of weapon, to doing a dance in a certain spot.  Accomplishing these goals unlocks items in the Battle Pass, which includes skins (outfits), emotes, loading screens, and more. 

So I don't think I'll ever be a great Fortnite player, but I'm ok with that.  There are millions of kids and young adults around the world who spend WAY more time on the game with me and do better than me.  I just don't think I'll ever devote THAT much time to the game.  It's just a game and a way for me to relieve stress, which I'll admit sometimes it has the opposite effect. 

My Extensive 2018 NFL Predictions!

For me, it’s hard to believe, but the 2018 NFL season is almost here.  It feels like just recently the Philadelphia Eagles won their first Super Bowl.  With a new season brings optimism to every club.  Heck, even the Browns have reasons to be optimistic.  I honestly cannot remember a season where nearly every team had some reason to be hopeful, a reason to think their season could be a success.  And in doing these predictions for the first time, I made sure all the team records add up to 256-256.  It was not easy, I tell you.  I really wanted to say a lot of teams would do well, but unfortunately for a lot of teams, their season ends in disappointment because of injuries, bad chemistry, or lack of execution.

I have divided this up into FOUR parts.  First part is Ten Surprising predictions.  These are predictions I like to make each year that only have a small chance of happening in hindsight, but last year I got 4/10 right.  The one I was most proud of getting was the Seahawks having a better road record than home record.  I also got right that a well-respected coach got fired before season’s end, that every division winner would have a better record than every wild card team, and that the AFC South would have a wild card team. 

The second part will be my predicted records for each NFL team.  Again, I made sure that all team records add up to a total of 256-256.  The third part is my predictions for each Seahawk’s game, and what I expect to happen in each one.  And lastly, I will predict the NFL playoffs, predict my Super Bowl matchup and ultimate Super Bowl Champion, as well as hand out the end-of-the-year awards.

Firstly, though, is my ten surprising predictions for the 2018 season:

1. The San Francisco 49ers will NOT have the rousing success everyone thinks they will this year, and they will lose more than they win.
The 49ers are everyone’s dark horse team for 2018, but I don’t think they will be much, if it all better this year.  One, I don’t think Jimmy Garoppolo is as good as everyone thinks.  He was a second round and not a first round pick for a reason.  He also is dating a porn star and has already signed his lucrative contract, so he doesn’t have too much more to play for.  Also, aside from Richard Sherman, the 49ers didn’t add a whole lot in the offseason.  I think expectations will be too high and they will go 7-9 at best.

Well, I was right.  But it wasn't all because they weren't ready.  Most blame could be pointed to the Jimmy Garoppolo season-ending injury.  However, I was right, so that's one.

2. No team will lose 13 or more games in 2018
The Browns have been the worst team the last two seasons, but with most expecting them to improve greatly and win a handful of games, there may not be THAT bad of a team this year.  I predict the worst team will go 4-12 in a very competitive league.

I was SOOO close on this one!  Only one team lost 13 or more games, and it was the Arizona Cardinals, and they lost 13.  

3. The team that finishes with the worst record (or tied for worst record) in 2018 will have had a winning record in 2017. 
Speaking of the worst record in the NFL, I’m not going to say who (you’ll have to see below), but the team that finishes with the worst record (and thus gets the #1 overall pick) will be a team that had a winning record in 2017.  That is always a surprise to see.  It doesn’t have to be the team I picked for this to be right, just a team that had a winning record in the 2017 season.

Again, SO CLOSE.  The Cardinals, who had the worst record in 2018, went 8-8 in 2017.  Figures.

4. The AFC representative in the Super Bowl won’t be the Patriots.  Or the Steelers.  In fact, it will be a team who hasn’t made it to the Super Bowl this millennium.
I think the AFC is due for a new Super Bowl contender.  They haven’t had a team represent their conference minus Peyton Manning and Tom Brady since the Ravens made it in 2012.  And they haven’t had a team win the Super Bowl that hadn’t already this millennium since the Colts in 2007.

Welp.  I may have predicted the Patriots demise too early.  For a while my prediction looked good as the Kansas City Chiefs would've made this prediction correct, but they came up so close in the AFC Championship.

5. The Seahawks AGAIN finish with a better road record than home record
I can make the same prediction two years in a row, can’t I?  It’s my predictions.  Just looking at the Seahawks schedule, I’ve noticed most of their tough non-divisional opponents (Dallas, GB, Minnesota, Kansas City) are at home while they face their easier divisional counterparts on the road (Oakland, Denver, Detroit, Chicago).  It would be surprising for this anomaly to happen two years in a row for the Seahawks, but I think it will indeed happen again.

Not this time.  The Seahawks lost winnable road games (San Francisco, Denver) and won some home games against decent opponents (Minnesota, Kansas City, Green Bay).  

6. Neither team in the Super Bowl will have multiple Super Bowl wins
I think we’re going to see a Super Bowl with semi-inexperienced teams.  There are plenty of teams with one or no Super Bowl titles (20 to be exact), but it’s not too likely that both Super Bowl participants will be like that.  So that means no Patriots, no Steelers, no Packers.

If it was any matchup from the conference championship games OTHER than the Patriots, this would have been correct.  The Rams, Saints, and Chiefs all have one Championship.  Damn Patriots.

7. Among QB’s in their rookie or sophomore seasons, Mitch Trubisky will have the best (or tied for best) record
There are a lot of new and young faces at QB in the NFL.  There were five rookie QB’s taken in the first round of this year’s draft, plus Mahomes in KC and Trubisky in Chicago will be playing their first full seasons.  I expect Trubisky among all of those QB’s to have the best record as a starter or tied for the best.

Second one correct!  He tied with Mahomes of the Chiefs for best record among first or second year QB's.  I didn't foresee Mahomes's success but I saw the Bears making a run.

8. The AFC will have multiple divisions with only one team with a winning record. 
Anyone paying attention to the NFL the past few years may have noticed most of the talent resides in the NFC.  The NFC has more talented QB’s and better defenses.  Therefore, I think there will be a couple divisions in the AFC with only one winning team.  There will be a lot of sub-par AFC teams.

Only one division, I'm afraid.  The AFC East only had one.  The next closest was the AFC North, where the Steelers were second best at 9-6-1.  

9. The Offensive Rookie of the Year won’t be one of the five QB’s drafted in the first round.  It won’t even be Saquon Barkley.
I’m not positive on who it is, but I don’t see any of the first-round QB’s having rousing success in their first season (at least not enough to win Offensive ROY).  I also don’t see a ton of success for Saquon Barkley, the first running back drafted.  It will either be a QB drafted in the 2^nd round or later, a different running back, or a different position altogether.  Usually the OROY is a top QB chosen or the best running back, but it won’t be this year.

It was Saquon Barkley.  I knew I was going out on a limb.  The runner up was Baker Mayfield and he wouldn't have made my prediction correct, either.

10. No team will win more than 12 games, and there won’t be more than one team per conference with 12 wins.
There is a ton of parity in the NFL (especially the NFC), and I expect a lot of competitiveness, few blowouts, and a lot of upsets in the league this season.  Therefore, there won’t be a team that runs away with its conference, and the most any team will win is 12 games, and there won’t even be two teams that do that in a conference.  Maybe one per.

Oops.  The Saints AND Rams both won 13, and they are both in the NFC.  The Chiefs also won 12 in the AFC.  Oh wells.

So after those ten bold predictions, you might have some idea as to how the divisions and records shape up.  Here we go, with some comments on each division:

* = Wild Card
AFC EAST
1. Patriots: 10-6
2. Jets: 8-8
3. Dolphins: 6-10
4. Bills: 5-11
Comment: The Patriots have a rebuilt offensive line and very inexperienced receivers, so they’ll take a minor step back more than likely.  But in a weak division, they’ll recapture the AFC East crown barring major injuries.  The Jets should be competitive even though they are starting a 21-year-old rookie in Sam Darnold.  The Fins, however, keep losing stars and Tannehill has a huge uphill climb to make coming back from injury.  The Bills have decided to start Nathan Peterman Week 1, and there’s little chance that goes well.

AFC NORTH
1. Steelers: 12-4
2. Ravens: 8-8
3. Browns: 6-10
4. Bengals: 5-11
Comment: The Steelers beat up on their division, which frankly, I don’t see much competitiveness in outside of the Steel City.  The Ravens do OK but may not play well enough for their head coach to keep his job.  The Browns get off to a decent start and hover around .500 but suffer many losses in late November and December.  The Bengals crash and burn, not being able to play complete and disciplined football.

AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans: 10-6
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-6*
3. Indianapolis Colts: 9-7*
4. Tennessee Titans: 4-12
Comment: This should be one of the more competitive divisions in football and in my opinion, one of the most entertaining.  The Texans get Watson back and he’ll be out to prove he’s no fluke.  The Jags are out to prove last year was not a fluke themselves, and they should still be hungry after last year’s AFC Championship loss.  The Colts get Luck on their side and become more competitive, but Luck will take some time readjusting to NFL game speed.  The Titans have some new cool uni’s and a new coach, but I don’t like Derrick Henry as the sole featured back, and I have a bad feeling last year isn’t a fluke for Mariota and it will constantly be lingering in the back of his mind.

AFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-5
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7
3. Oakland Raiders: 6-10
4. Denver Broncos: 6-10
Comment: The Chargers boast one of the best all-around rosters in the NFL and had a great offseason.  The Chiefs still have a great roster themselves, but made a major QB change, and with Mahomes in his first season as a starter, they will have some hiccups along the way.  The Raiders will compete but their defense and run game will struggle at times; Beast Mode will show his age.  The Broncos will realize Case Keenum was a one-year wonder and must go in search of their future franchise signal caller.

NFC EAST
1. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-8
3. Washington Redskins: 7-9
4. New York Giants: 6-10
Comment: The Cowboys play well and capitalize by winning a lot of games in-division.  The Eagles, who struggled in the preseason, have a letdown season and Carson Wentz has a setback with his injury.  They also struggle with too many players with big egos, such as Michael Bennett.  The Skins will do moderately well with Alex Smith at QB, but struggle against the better NFC teams.  The G-Men will realize Eli Manning needs to be replaced sooner rather than later.

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers: 10-6
2. Minnesota Vikings: 10-6*
3. Chicago Bears: 9-7
4. Detroit Lions: 6-10
Comment: The Vikings and Packers should be in a battle all season long for the NFC North crown, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the lead changed in the last couple weeks.  Aaron Rodgers, fresh off signing the largest contract in NFL history, leads the Pack and has an MVP type season.  The Vikings just have too much talent to not win a bunch of games.  The Bears and their new pass rusher Khalil Mack have a breakthrough season, but still ultimately miss the playoffs, but are optimistic going into 2019.  The Lions become the odd man out in the division, as former Belichick assistants don’t tend to do well as head coaches (See Josh McDaniels, Romeo Crennel). 

NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints: 12-4
2. Atlanta Falcons: 10-6*
3. Carolina Panthers: 7-9
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-12
Comment: The Saints, perhaps more than anyone, should be seething after how last season ended, so I expect them to play their hearts out.  The Falcons still have a good roster all around, and many expect them to make a playoff run again.  The Panthers, however, don’t have a real reliable running back, and a defense that is slowly losing pieces, and they usually don’t have back-to-back playoff seasons, and I still don’t expect them to.  The Bucs aren’t going to have Jameis Winston for their first four games, and even when he gets back they won’t be much better.

NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams: 11-5
2. Seattle Seahawks: ????
3. San Francisco 49ers: 7-9
4. Arizona Cardinals: 6-10
Comment: The Rams may have acquired some headache players like Suh and Marcus Peters but have too much talent to not win the division. As for the Seahawks, you’ll have to wait until my game-by-game predictions for them below.  You know they’ll do at least 7-9 but no better than 11-5, based on their positioning above.  The 49ers won’t be as good as many people think because teams that are this hyped usually don’t live up to the hype, and they have a QB, roster, and coach that haven’t proven anything yet.  The Cardinals should compete, regardless of their quarterback, but their talent just doesn’t match up to most teams in the NFC.


So there you have it for the regular season!  Now on to the Seahawks game by game predictions.  How will they do?  Find out below.

I’m not doing scores, because there’s a very very slim chance they’ll end up correct. 

At Denver Broncos: Win (1-0)
The Hawks come out fighting.  The Broncos show they’re not quite there and Case Keenum struggles at times.  The last time the Hawks won in Denver, it was 2006.  So they are due. 

At Bears: Loss (1-1)
I originally had this game as a win, but I changed it after the Bears traded for Khalil Mack.  I don’t think the Hawks will have too much success against him and the resurgent Bears D.  It’ll be a close and tough defeat.  Possibly low-scoring as well. 

Vs. Cowboys: Loss (1-2)
The 12th Man can’t help the Hawks overcome the Cowboys in their home opener.  The defense has trouble containing Ezekiel Elliott and the running game never gets going against Dallas’ tough front seven, leaving fans worrying about how bad this season will end up being. 

At Cardinals: Win (2-2)
Hard to say which QB will start this game for the Cards, but I don’t think it matters too much.  Again, could be a low-scoring game. 

Vs. Rams: Loss (2-3)
The Hawks start the year with two straight home losses, and people start to wonder if the 12^th Man is losing its touch.  The Hawks go into this game seeking revenge for last year’s embarrassment at home, and while they do succeed in making it a closer game, still ultimately end up falling.

At Raiders in London: Win (3-3)
First game outside of North America for the Seahawks results in a W.  Seahawks fans show up in droves as there appears to be many members of the 12^th Man in the UK. 

At Lions: Win (4-3)
The Hawks, well-rested after their bye, air it out in a shootout against Detroit and come out on top.  Matt Patricia and Pete Carroll, two defensive coaches, end up wishing their D’s had done better.

Vs. Chargers: Win (5-3)
This will be a tough matchup, but the Hawks will have gone into November without a home win.  They won’t allow it to continue.  This will be like the Texans game last year: close, exciting, and the Hawks come out on top at home.

At Rams: Loss (5-4)
The Hawks fail to get 3 games above .500.  They always play the Rams tough in L.A., and after last year’s lucky win I don’t think luck is in their favor this time, as the Rams end up sweeping the Hawks in 2018.

vs. Packers: Loss (5-5)
Aaron Rodgers has too many bad memories at Century Link.  The Fail Mary game where he got sacked at least a half dozen times.  The loss in the NFC Championship game.  He’ll be out to rid himself of those demons.  The Hawks fall to 1-3 at home.

at Panthers: Win (6-5)
There was a period near the beginning of the Seahawks renaissance where the Hawks beat the Panthers three straight years, all games in Carolina.  I think they recapture some of that old magic and win.  I also expect the Panthers to disappoint in 2018.

vs. 49ers: Win (7-5)
This should be a loud and exciting game that I see the Hawks winning in close and dramatic fashion.  Like I said earlier, I don’t expect the 49ers to be as good as a lot of people think.

vs. Vikings: Loss (7-6)
This might be the most important game on the Seahawks schedule, based on its position in the schedule and who they’re playing.  But the Hawks offense does not get much going against the stout Vikings defense, and Janikowski misses a late field goal.

At 49ers: Loss (7-7)
This proves to be a devastating loss towards the Seahawks playoff hopes.  But they can’t stop Jimmy Garoppolo this time.  Not in Santa Clara.

vs. Chiefs: Loss (7-8)
Another devastating loss.  Pat Mahomes airs it out and the Chiefs rack up points on a tired and weary Hawks defense.  This knocks the Hawks out of the playoff race for the second straight year.

vs. Cardinals: Win (8-8)
In what is now a meaningless game, the Hawks come out on top.  They provide some hope for next season, knowing they must fill holes on D and on the offensive line.


So the Seahawks finish 8-8, no playoffs for the 2^nd straight year.  A three game losing streak in December ultimately does them in.  The defense is not bad, but they are inconsistent.  The running game and offensive line shows marginal improvement.  Luck just won’t be on their side this year.  But how does the rest of the NFL do in the playoffs?  Let’s find out!

AFC Wild Card Round:
(6) Colts at (3) Patriots: Patriots win
This was a common playoff matchup in the 2000’s between Manning and Brady.  Now it is Brady and Luck (again) and again Brady comes out on top.  And yes, the Patriots do NOT get a first round BYE.

(5) Jaguars at (4) Texans: Jaguars win
I really like Deshaun Watson and the Texans, but they are not the most complete team in the AFC.  The Jags defense torments Watson relentlessly and secure a trip to the divisional round.

NFC Wild Card Round:
(6) Falcons at (3) Cowboys: Cowboys win
The ‘Boys finally shake off their playoff woes and give fans of “America’s Team” reason to be optimistic.  They win on a bad call by the refs (let’s face it, the NFL wants the Cowboys in as many high-profile games as possible).

(5) Vikings at (4) Packers: Packers win
It's always exciting when these two meet in the regular season.  Add that it’s a playoff game and… woah.  The Pack come out on top in the frigid temps of Green Bay as the Minnesota offense can’t get anything going, while the Green Bay offense does enough.

AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND:
(5) Jaguars at (1) Steelers: Steelers win
The Steelers win the rematch of last year’s AFC divisional matchup.  They will want the game more, simply.

(3) Patriots at (2) Chargers: Chargers win
The Chargers win, with Phillip Rivers having no flashbacks to the 2000’s when they lost to the Patriots in the playoffs.  The Patriots just won’t have as good of a roster.  Coaching and strategy can only get you so far.

NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND:
(4) Packers at (1) Saints: Saints win
The Saints win a close and exciting game between two of the game’s best QB’s.

(3) Cowboys at (2) Rams: Cowboys win
In a battle of Hollywood’s team vs. America’s team, the ‘Boys come out on top because they play slightly more disciplined and hard-nose football.  The Rams start to wonder what it will take to get their team to win a single playoff game.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: (2) Chargers at (1) Steelers: Chargers win
Like I said earlier, the AFC will be represented by someone new.  That will be the Chargers.  They stun the Steelers fans who go home again disappointed.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: (3) Cowboys at (1) Saints: Saints win
In a battle of two underdog QB’s (Prescott vs. Brees), the wily veteran Brees comes out on top.  The Saints crowd proves to be too much for the Cowboys.  The Saints move on to their 2nd Super Bowl.

SUPER BOWL LIII: Chargers vs. Saints: Saints win, 37-34
In a Super Bowl matchup of two bad-luck franchises and two QB’s who used to be teammates, Brees comes out on top.  This ends up being one of the most entertaining Super Bowls, with a late score or defensive stop in the final seconds.  Your 2018 and Super Bowl LIII champions are the New Orleans Saints!

Finally, some awards to hand out:
NFL MVP: Drew Brees (finally!), Saints
Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Defensive Player of the Year: Joey Bosa, Chargers
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Calvin Ridley, Falcons
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Derwin James, Chargers
Coach of the Year: Anthony Lynn, Chargers
Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Thanks for reading all the way through if you did!  I’m very excited for this upcoming season, even if I didn’t predict my Seahawks to make the playoffs.  They still have the potential to surprise a lot of people and prove me wrong by making the playoffs for the 6^th time in 7 seasons.  Here’s to an awesome 2018 NFL season!