Well, I already completed Part 1 of my 2011 NFL Predictions which went through each Seahawk game, now I am going to go through each team, division by division, predict their W-L record, and then go through the playoffs. I have now gone through and reviewed each team and how I did, why I was right or wrong. Those recent parts will be the last section titled "Review".
AFC West
San Diego Chargers: I expect Rivers and Co. to be very hungry this year, especially after barely losing the division last year. People think Rivers is elite, but to me he is just a semi-decent quarterback who puts up good numbers. You don’t become elite until you have success in the playoffs.
Predicted record: 10-6
Odds of winning division: 60%
Review: The Chargers battled inconsistency and injuries. Surprisingly, they didn't fire Norv Turner, but they did fire their GM. I expect them to be back and better next year.
Kansas City Chiefs: I think they will regress this year. They don’t have as much talent as the Chargers and they are still a young team. Cassel and Charles will have good years, but their defense isn’t good enough to win the division for them again.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 25%
Review: The Chiefs regressed more than I thought they would (thanks to injuries), although they did win some impressive games, such as handing the Packers their first loss.
Denver Broncos: Enough with the talk of Tim Tebow. Look, odds are, Tebow won’t even be in the NFL 5 years from now. He’ll probably be a pastor or something. Bottom line is, they are still rebuilding and new head coach John Fox will have to take his time.
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 10% - Oops
Review: Tebowmania! That's all I have to say about him. I also underestimated their defense.
Oakland Raiders: The Raiders lost a BUNCH of talent this offseason: Asomugha, Miller, Gallery, and head coach Tom Cable. They need to start from the ground up and quit trying to rebuild by adding small pieces here and there.
Predicted record: 4-12
Odds of winning division: 5%
Review: Wow, the Raiders did better than I predicted and they still fired their coach. The team did played inspired ball after Al Davis passed but apparently they have high expectations
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have a lot of veterans complemented by young talent (Ngata, Flacco, Rice), which usually is the combination for success in team sports. The Ravens will win the AFC North in 2011 because they will have their best offensive output in their history. I still, however, pick them to lose to the Hawks, though.
Predicted record: 12-4
Odds of winning division: 45% - Spot On
Review: Wow, I was right about their division win AND losing to the Hawks AND their record. Their offense was better, but they were inconsistent.
Cleveland Browns: That’s right. I have the Cleveland Browns at 2nd in the division. They are one of a few teams that has struggled a lot the past decade but is on the upswing (see Detroit Lions). I think Mike Holmgren is steering them in the right direction. They won’t get to the playoffs, but they will have a successful season.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 10%
Review: Oops. Well, I knew one of the Ohio teams would do better, I just got the wrong team.
Pittsburgh Steelers: I predict the Steelers will suffer from the Super Bowl loser curse, or at the very least, I hope they do. Plus, I gotta have at least one surprising pick. Typically the past decade, the Super Bowl loser struggles the following year and usually fails to make the playoffs, the Seahawks being one of the exceptions. I don’t expect the Steelers to be an exception. Perhaps Big Ben will get injured. You’ll see that I’ve given them a 45% chance of winning the division, but I am going out on a limb and saying they won’t.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 45%
Review: No division win - Correct. Loser's curse - Incorrect, somewhat. They did make the playoffs, but lost their first game.
Cincinnati Bengals: This is a team that will be clearly starting the rebuilding process. They will have to try to build around Andy Dalton and Andre Smith. They lost Chad Ochocinco and Carson Palmer has quit on them. I will be shocked if they get more than 5 or 6 wins. They will be one of the teams vying for the #1 pick in the 2012 draft.
Predicted record: 3-13
Odds of winning division: 0% - They had a chance, but I gave them none.
Review: I can't believe I gave them such bad odds, but I totally underestimated Andy Dalton and their defense. Apparently Palmer and Ochocinco were cancers to the team. Good for them.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning will actually benefit from the lockout because he is a veteran and probably still worked on his game in the offseason. That’s why I am picking the Colts to repeat as AFC South champs. They won’t dominate, but they will win the division.
Predicted record: 11-5
Odds of winning division: 50%
Review: This was when we still thought Manning would play this season. Oh well.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans made bold moves by drafting Locker then signing Matt Hasselbeck to be his mentor and start the year for them at QB. They lost Kerry Collins and Vince Young, but neither of those were very good. If Chris Johnson stays healthy and Hasselbeck adjusts to yet another new system for him, the Titans will be hard to beat.
Predicted record: 9-7 (Wild card team)
Odds of winning division: 25%
Review: I predicted their record spot on, but they didn't make the playoffs like I thought they would. CJ struggled, which hurt their chances.
Houston Texans: They had a letdown season last year going 6-10 following their first winning season in history. I expect the Texans to compete, but in the end they will fall short of the playoffs like they usually do. They just need a bit more talent in the secondary and on the lines to get to the next level.
Predicted record: 7-9
Odds of winning division: 15%
Review: I said they needed more talent in their secondary while forgetting they signed Jonathan Joseph in the offseason. And their O-Line, while being a no name O-Line, was very good, which is why they won their division.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Sure, they finished in 2nd place in the division last year, but I don’t see them repeating this year. Last year, they had the struggles of the Titans and Texans to rely on, but this year both of those teams are expected to be better, which means someone has to be worse.
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 10%
Review: I was just one game off, and I used logic for this prediction and it worked.
AFC East
New England Patriots: Many people, including myself, expect the Patriots to benefit from the lockout because they are such an experienced and veteran team. They were dominant last year, going 14-2, and a disappointing playoff loss to the Jets derailed their season. I expect them to be just as good this year (or close) without any playoff slipups. More on that later.
Predicted record: 13-3
Odds of winning division: 60%
Review: Record? Check. No playoff slipups? Check. I couldn't have really predicted any better.
New York Jets: The Jets had a good season last year and were one step away from the Super Bowl. I still think they are another year away from REALLY competing. Hard to compete when you have the Patriots in your own division. Plus, Sanchez is still a long ways from being as good as Brady.
Predicted record: 10-6 (Wild card team)
Odds of winning division: 35%
Review: They lost their identity and were inconsistent, something that's hard to predict.
Miami Dolphins: It’s evident that this division will have two great teams and two bad teams. The Dolphins will be one of the bad teams. They are still a franchise QB and a few key defensive players away from contending. They lost both Ronnie Brown AND Ricky Williams in the offseason, which will hurt them.
Predicted record: 5-11
Odds of winning division: 5%
Review: Just one game off, but losing Brown and Williams didn't hurt them since Reggie Bush stepped up. But losing Chad Henne to injury certainly hurt them.
Buffalo Bills: This team is still in rebuilding mode as slowly the fans in Buffalo are giving up them. Gone are the glory days of Jim Kelly, OJ Simpson, Andre Reed, and Eric Moulds. Not a lot more to be said about this team. They won’t be terrible, but don’t expect a good season from them.
Predicted record: 5-11
Odds of winning division: 0%
Review: No one, not even I, saw that fast start. But they regressed and finished just one game away from my prediction. Still in a rebuilding mode, but we saw signs of promise.
NFC West
St. Louis Rams: Sorry, Hawks fans. We won the tiebreaker last season but I think the Rams will get it this season. I do see the Seahawks and Rams staying neck and neck all the way through, but the Rams will have more success against our division than we will.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 35%
Review: Haha woops! But I certainly wasn't the only one to overestimate the Rams this season.
Seattle Seahawks: It will be odd, having a better record than last year but not making the playoffs. Some will consider that a disappointment but if that happens, I will consider it a positive season. This isn’t the year for the Hawks to try to win it all, so I have semi-low expectations for this team. We will be somewhere near .500, but the Rams will be improved from last year.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 30%
Review: Just two games off, but I was right that we'd miss the playoffs by a little bit and we'd be near .500. The inconsistent offense and penalties really hurt us.
San Francisco 49ers: New coach Jim Harbaugh has a bit of work to do. It’s a pretty similar team to last year’s, but they did add new rookie quarterback Colin Kaepernick. I expect him to get some time on the field this year. The 49ers will eventually win the NFC West again, but not this season. Jim Harbaugh is the right guy for them, but it won’t happen in his first year.
Predicted record: 6-10
Odds of winning division: 20% - Not too bad considering.
Review: Wrong, wrong and more wrong I was. Kaepernick did not factor or play games, they did win it in Harbaugh's first year, and a coach can be the difference.
Arizona Cardinals: They got their man, Kevin Kolb. He will do about as well as Matt Schaub did in his first season with the Texans. The Cardinals won’t be a complete embarrassment, but Kolb is no Kurt Warner. He’ll take some time to lead this team back to the playoffs.
Predicted record: 5-11
Odds of winning division: 15%
Review: Just two games off and pretty spot on with my assessment of Kolb. I, however, did not see John Skelton being the difference maker.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: There is a new dynasty in the NFL, and they are the Green Bay Packers. Last year’s Super Bowl won’t be their only one with Aaron Rodgers as their QB. I expect big things from the Pack again this year, because they have a ton of talent surrounding one of the elite QB’s in the game. It’s hard to believe they had to get into the playoffs last year via the wild card, but the same won’t be said this year.
Predicted record: 12-4
Odds of winning division: 50%
Review: The only thing I missed on was their record; I didn't think they'd be as dominant as they were. But these Packers are here to stay, it seems.
Chicago Bears: I tell you, the NFC North will be one of the best divisions in football, and the Bears will again be competitive. They won the division last year and were one win away from the Super Bowl. I expect them to either get a wild card playoff spot or be very close to one. Jay Cutler will have one of his best seasons, I predict.
Predicted record: 10-6 (Wild Card team)
Odds of winning division: 25%
Review: Hard to see both Cutler and Forte getting hurt. Had they not gotten injured, I think the Bears easily could have been 10-6 and would have kicked the Lions out.
Minnesota Vikings: Hard to tell how good this team will be. They got Donovan McNabb. They still have one of the best running backs in Adrian Peterson. They still have a good offensive line and some good key defensive players. But I can’t see them having too much success playing in a tough division.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 15%
Review: McNabb is done, something I didn't see. This team is now going through a rebuilding process, but they're hoping they have their guy in Christian Ponder.
Detroit Lions: Another team on the upswing is the Detroit Lions. They now have two beasts on their defensive line with Suh and Fairley. Matthew Stafford should be healthy and bounce back (Comeback player of the year, possibly?) They still have a year or two to go, but I expect them to be an improved team. They’ll probably still finish in last, but that is only due to the toughness of their division.
Predicted record: 7-9
Odds of winning division: 10%
Review: Matthew Stafford might very will win Comeback Player like I suggested. But they were much better than I thought.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: They won 13 games last year but had a huge letdown losing to the Packers in the playoffs. I expect them to be good again, but not as dominant in the regular season. I don’t think they will win it all, but they’ll compete and beat a lot of teams.
Predicted record: 11-5
Odds of winning division: 45%
Review: Just one game off their record and I correctly predicted them in the playoffs. The only thing I missed was that they didn't win their division.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs have a young franchise quarterback, an improving defense, and a lot of talent that just needs experience. They will get back to the playoffs starting this season. They barely missed out last year, but not this year.
Predicted record: 10-6 (Wild Card team)
Odds of winning division: 30%
Review: MY BAD. I had a lot of hope for the Bucs and they let me down. I thought they'd be similar to the 2010 Green Bay Packers, but I was wrong.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints will go from Super Bowl champs to losing to the Seahawks in the playoffs to not even making the playoffs. My how the mighty have fallen. They won’t be bad, don’t get me wrong, but too many other teams have gotten better while the Saints have not.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 20% - Again, not a bad prediction.
Review: Haha how wrong I was. I'm just going to say I totally blew this one.
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers will take some time to improve and rebuild, but at least they have two young solid QB’s (Newton and Clausen) to rely on. If one fails, there’s a good chance the other won’t. They don’t have much chance of anything this year due to the toughness of their division and the rest of the NFC, but they will be slightly improved from last year.
Predicted record: 4-12
Odds of winning division: 5%
Review: They were better than I thought, mainly because another team, the Bucs, took over last place.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: They added more talent in the offseason than anyone has really seen in NFL history. I could name them: Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Steve Smith, Vince Young, Jason Babin, the list goes on and on. Their biggest loss was a backup QB. This year their success rests on Michael Vick. If he plays well, they will do well. If he doesn’t, well, you get the picture.
Predicted record: 12-4
Odds of winning division: 45%
Review: I think everyone missed on the Eagles. We all know what happened there.
Dallas Cowboys: They always look good on paper, but always underperform. It’s kinda funny. It gets even funnier when you see Jerry Jones’ disappointed face. Anyway, the Cowboys will have another up and down season, but this year will have more ups than downs. Romo should stay healthy. Jason Garret should be the right coach for them. But they will miss the playoffs.
Predicted record: 9-7
Odds of winning division: 25%
Review: Just one game off the record prediction, but Romo did not stay healthy. They did, however, miss the playoffs like I predicted.
New York Giants: I don’t expect much from the Giants this year. I said in part 1 about the Seahawks that I think Eli Manning will either struggle or get hurt. Then again, I say this a lot about the Giants and then they go on to win the division. We’ll see what happens, but for now, I say a very average season.
Predicted record: 8-8
Odds of winning division: 20%
Review: WHAT DID I JUST SAY. I bolded it to emphasize it. EVERY SINGLE TIME I say they will be average at best, and they do really well. I say they do well and they struggle. Wow.
Washington Redskins: Their QB controversy is Rex Grossman or John Beck. Wow. I can’t see the Redskins even having as many wins as last year, which was only 6. Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him. They have too many holes and not enough talent to compete in another tough division. Many Redskins fans will start wearing paper bags to their games.
Predicted record: 3-13
Odds of winning division: 10%
Review: It wasn't as bad as I predicted, but they did finish in last just like I thought.
Ok, now time for the playoffs! Here are the seedings based on my predicted records:
AFC
1. New England Patriots (13-3)
2. Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
3. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
4. San Diego Chargers (10-6)
5. New York Jets (10-6)
6. Tennesee Titans (9-7)
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
3. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
4. St. Louis Rams (9-7)
5. Chicago Bears (10-6)
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
PLAYOFFS
AFC Wild Card:
(6) Titans at (3) Colts: Colts win Neither team in playoffs
(5) Jets at (4) Chargers: Chargers win Neither team in playoffs
NFC Wild Card:
(6) Buccaneers at (3) Falcons: Buccaneers win Falcons did lose first playoff game.
(5) Bears at (4) Rams: Bears win Neither team in playoffs
AFC Divisional:
(4) Chargers at (1) Patriots: Chargers win Um... oops?
(3) Colts at (2) Ravens: Ravens win Ravens did win first game, which was also the Div. Round
NFC Divisional:
(6) Buccaneers at (1) Packers: Packers win Missed the Packers losing
(5) Bears at (2) Eagles: Eagles win Neither team in playoffs
AFC Championship:
(4) Chargers at (2) Ravens: Ravens win Ravens lost the AFC Champ, but were close.
(2) Eagles at (1) Packers: Packers win Packers missed NFC champ
Super Bowl XLVI:
Packers at Ravens: Packers win, 20-17
There you have it. I’ll probably be totally wrong (Yep!), but hey, it’s fun to do with the NFL season coming up. And it’s fun to look back on it a few months from now to see what teams I was right on the mark with and what teams I totally missed. I can’t wait for this upcoming season, and as always, GO SEAHAWKS!
