Survivor 46 FOUR WORD GAME

 As always, I will be doing my usual Four Word Game, inspired by Colin Cowherd's former game on his show "The Herd" called the Three Word game.  In this, I will briefly summarize in four words each player's week, their outlook, what they need to do to succeed at their current juncture, etc.  Then I'll explain upon it a bit.  Lastly, I'll re-rank each remaining player, which is a combination of where I think they'll finish and how likely they are to win the game.  

And we will always go in ascending order, from lowest ranked to highest ranked the previous week.  The order my first week is based on my pre-season ranking of the players (before I saw any content).  The eliminated player will always be the last one talked about.

After Episode 1 Four Word Game

Moriah: Already off on her
My thought was she would be too nerdy or weird and also a potential challenge liability, so I pegged her as the first boot.  Whoops.  I could definitely see Moriah making the merge now.  Good on her to align with Jem and Maria.

Randen: Doomed from the start
Not a lot of content, already got a player (Venus) not liking him... yeah not a good start for Randen.  If Nami loses a pre-merge challenge, he's very likely a goner.  The thing is though, they look like a very strong tribe.

Soda: Maryanne the second, possibly?
Soda screams Maryanne to me: bubbly personality, annoys some players, and not a physical threat at all.  Like Maryanne, if Soda can survive to the merge, she's got a good chance.  I definitely underestimated her as well.

Bhanu: Emotions may cost him
We've already seen him cry at the first vote, we see him yelling at Jess in the next episode... Bhanu is a much more emotional player than I thought he'd be.  Fortunately for him, he seems to have replaced Jelinsky in the majority alliance, but I wouldn't be shocked if they chose Jess over him next vote.

Ben: All character, no player
Ben was all about "good vibes" and stuff like that, and while that's good for morale early on, I'm not seeing much game-savvyness from him.  He might end up being the first boot on his tribe due to the women's alliance.  When Jeff snuffs his torch, you better believe he'll be smiling and in good spirits.

Charlie: In lose-lose situation
Yes, Charlie is in the middle on his tribe, and whatever he does, I think he loses.  If he goes with the women, he's at the bottom of their alliance and they will jettison him as soon as they can.  If he goes with the men, he'd be hoping for a miracle since Maria has an extra vote.  

Venus: No long-term plans
Granted, it was only episode 1, but Venus doesn't seem to have any long-term plans.  She wants to get out Randen--great.  But if Nami goes to tribal multiple times, she will definitely be on the chopping block.  She's not in the Hunter-Soda-Tevin alliance, so it would be either her or Liz.

Liz: Zero chance of winning
Yep.  Already saying it, after one episode I declare Liz as having zero chance of winning the game.  Well, her, Randen, Jess, all pretty much at or near 0.  But Liz saying she's owned four businesses rubbed Tevin the wrong way, and he's already clearly a power player.  Even if she gets to the end, it'll be as a goat.

Jess: Saved by terrible player
In most seasons, Jess and her lack of her ability to function would easily make her the first boot, but Jelinsky saved her.  Now Jess has a chance to redeem herself, but she has a terribly steep hill to climb.  Not only does she have to hope her tribe doesn't become the Lulu Losers 2.0, but she'll have to work really hard to save herself if they lose just even one more pre-merge challenge.  I'm not liking her chances.

Q: Kaleb of this season
On a terrible tribe?  Check.  Forced to carry tribemates?  Check.  Black charismatic male who will likely get targeted early post-merge?  Check.  Q checks all the boxes for being this season's Kaleb.  However, I do think he's more athletic than Kaleb, although Kaleb has more charm.  

Hunter: Solid start, lay low
Hunter will undoubtedly be a possible target at some point, I mean just look at him.  He had a solid start, agreeing to work with Tevin and Soda despite not being a huge fan of their singing.  He did well with tolerating it.  He'll need to lay low and not make any flashy moves too early, and hope they'll be bigger fish for people to fry.

Maria: Another mom killing it
Just like Julie last season, I have a good feeling about Maria getting fairly far.  We've technically only had one "Mom" of the season ever win, and that was all the way back in Season 2 with Tina.  Could Maria do it?  She birthed three babies without any meds, nothing's too painful or difficult for her.

Tiffany: Advantage and idol queen 
In my pre-season analysis, I compared Tiffany to Drea from 41, who memorably had a crap ton of advantages and idols.  Tiffany already has one idol.  She clearly wanted it, did what it took to get it, and I bet she'll be hungry for more.

Jem: Too quiet a premiere
I can't remember too much of what Jem did in the premiere, and for me, that's too quiet of a start for someone I was considering as a potential winner.  I know she formed an alliance with Maria and Moriah, but that's about it. 

Tevin: Face of the season
When you think "faces" of a season, you think maybe not of the winner but of one of more memorable characters.  Carolyn of 44.  Cody or Jesse of 43.  I think Tevin will be the face of 46.  I fully expect him to at least get near the finale.  He not only was featured in the preview, but got the freaking opening narration this season.  

Tim: In a tough spot
So if his tribe loses, who will be the target?  Likely Ben or Tim.  Unfortunately for Tim, his chances fell significantly for me because his chances of making the merge dropped that much.  I really hope he can somehow find a way to pull through.  Maybe he'll find his tribe's idol?  He might have to go on a search soon.

Kenzie: Still my winner pick
Spoiler alert, I'm going to keep Kenzie at #1.  She had a great premiere, she had a winner-like confessional or two, and she is in the majority alliance easily.  The problem is, she's on a sucky tribe.  But so was Yam-Yam, and we saw how he did.  His tribe was also purple.  If Yam-Yam can do it, Kenzie can.

And to our departed player...

Jelinsky: Worst new era player?
Hard to think of a way Jelinsky could have played worse without actually quitting.  He should not have been so eager to volunteer for both the Sweat challenge and the journey.  Had he played it cool and slow, it would've been Jess going, and not him.  His youthfulness and eagerness for the game cost him.  A wiser, more mature player would've held back on voluntereing, knowing the consequences of failure.  

All right, new power rankings!  Obviously will be a few players moving a lot of spaces after the first week.  Here it is:

17. Jess (-8)
16. Randen (+1)
15. Ben (-1)
14. Bhanu (+1)
13. Tim (-11)
12. Venus (-1)
11. Charlie (+2)
10. Moriah (+8)
9. Liz (+1)
8. Q (0)
7. Soda (+9)
6. Jem (-2)
5. Hunter (+2)
4. Tiffany (+1)
3. Maria (+2)
2. Tevin (+1)
1. Kenzie (0)

Biggest rise: Soda (+9)
Biggest fall: Tim (-11)

Jess and Tim fall significantly, while Soda and Moriah jump up a ton.  Everyone else stayed within 2 spots of my original ranking.   I love the top 5, and if any go pre-merge I will be shocked, although Tiffany and Kenzie are on a terrible tribe.  The first 5 or 6 are who I largely expect at this point to be the pre-merge boots, based on tribe make-ups and alliances. 

After Episode 2 Four Word Game

Randen: Alliance and idol find?!
What a good episode for Randen, which I was not expecting.  He formed an alliance with Venus and has the start of an idol.  I don't know if I would've told Venus that early; it was risky and she easily could've run off and told someone like Soda.  But if they lose, I'm feeling okay about Randen's chances.  Although an idol misplay could happen.

Ben: Endearing, but no bonds
Sure, Ben endeared us and his tribe with his ability to name Metallica songs.  But who is he close to?  He's semi-close to Charlie and Tim, but that's it.  We don't see him personally bonding with any one person.  That's not good.  He's got early merge boot written all over him.  Think Sifu and Danny (44).  

Bhanu: Dude needs to chill
Funnily, we saw him meditating and chanting at the start of the episode, so imagine if he didn't do that.  But Bhanu's emotions are all over the place, and if Yanu loses again, he's in big trouble.

Tim: Capable of surviving early?
It'll all depend on if and how Siga loses and if there's a tribe swap.  But oddly, I think Tim's chances on this tribe may be the worst.  Ben's extremely likable and not a threat, whereas Tim is shadier and more likely to be targeted.  

Venus: Focus setting up run?
She got a ton of focus tonight, which leads me to thinking she's either going to be a force in this game... or the first boot from her tribe.  It's hard to say.  Given Nami won, I'm actually leaning towards the former.  She needs to trust Randen and maybe try to rope in someone else.  Maybe Liz?

Charlie: Best positioned person playing
He might just be.  His alliance with Maria and the girls insulates him quite a bit.  He also won't be turned on by the guys.  He also is on a strong tribe.  And, if Maria and him were targets, she'd likely be targeted first due to her likely being seen as the leader of their duo.  He's in a terrific spot and he's in this game for the long haul.

Moriah: Leaning towards potential blindside
For Moriah, that is.  If Siga loses, I could see Charlie and Maria turning on the girls, and likely Moriah.  I just have that gut feeling.  Funny how she and Liz are so similar and were the two sit-outs.  I'd really hope they could either get on the same tribe or make the merge together.

Liz: The odd woman out
It's strange how on Nami, Liz is the only one who hasn't been shown how she really fits in.  If anything, it's how she doesn't fit in.  I don't like her chances.  I feel like Randen/Venus are likelier targets, but if Randen gets his idol and plays it successfully... watch out.

Q: Made the right choice
In not turning on Kenzie.  It would've been way too soon.  Yes, she kinda turned on him in suggesting to Bhanu and Jess to get out Tiff and Q, but Q had to be the bigger man.  He can worry about taking out Kenzie later.  Jess was a liability and she needed to go.  

Soda: Losing likability, potential blindside
Venus has seemingly lost faith in her, not listening to her during challenges and taking the idol away from her after they won.  I compared her to Maryanne last week, but she's more like a less likable version of her.  Meaning, I don't think Soda can win really.

Jem: Not enough focus, yet
I worry about Jem's winner chances at this point.  Yes, two episodes in.  For having 4 hours, she's gotten very little focus.  I had her as a potential winner coming in, but not anymore.  I also worry she could be a blindside victim if Siga loses.

Hunter: Confessional count crazy low
He only had one confessional this past episode and is tied for the lowest this season.  It's crazy for someone of Hunter's archetype.  I wonder what this means.  Maybe they're trying to hide the winner?  Also, in the intro package, his name was displayed higher than everyone else's, just like Dee's was last season.  Coincidence?  Possibly.  But maybe not.

Tiffany: Smartly kept her cool
I don't think the other tribes will remember how upset she got.  If anything, if I was one of them, I'd have empathy and know she was only that way because of how poorly her tribe was doing.  She's still perhaps the best-positioned player in her tribe, like Shan on Ua in 41.

Maria: Finally another mom powerhouse?
You can probably name the number of moms that have been powerhouse strategic players in Survivor history on one hand.  Tina, Denise... uh... that's all I got.  She may be a target come the merge, but we'll see.  I like her positioning with Charlie.

Tevin: Kaleb if tribe's successful
Most on Tevin's tribe are aware of Tevin's charisma and connections to basically everyone.  So that paints him as a social threat.  Kaleb was in a similar spot last season, but got taken out shortly after the merge due to not having numbers.  We may see what would've happened if he had had numbers and been on a good tribe.

Kenzie: Name being thrown out
I don't like it, since Kenzie was my winner pick.  Q mentioned multiple times that he was likely going to take out Kenzie.  Now it's too late, fortunately.  Although, I still don't like Kenzie's name being thrown out there.  Also, it was not smart of her to throw out turning on Q and Tiff to Bhanu and Jess.  She should've known better.  Now Q will try to get revenge when they merge.

And to our departed player...

Jess: Survivor's not her game
Jess seems like someone who'd be wildly successful at other games, but Survivor is not it.  When she has a lack of sleep and food, she's like a zombie.  She didn't even see the idol that Tiffany almost led her to.  Survivor's not her game, but I enjoyed what we got from Jess in the two episodes we had with her.

All right, new power rankings!  Perhaps even more of a shake-up than last week!  I'm not shy to move a lot of people a lot of spots.  Here they are:

16. Bhanu (-2)
15. Liz (-6)
14. Moriah (-4)
13. Ben (+2)
12. Randen (+4)
11. Tim (+2)
10. Venus (+2)
9. Jem (-3)
8. Kenzie (-7)
7. Q (+1)
6. Soda (+1)
5. Hunter (0)
4. Tiffany (0)
3. Tevin (-1)
2. Maria (+1)
1. Charlie (+10)

Biggest rise: Charlie (+10)
Biggest fall: Kenzie (-7)

Yep, I did that.  Charlie's my new winner pick.  Loved his content this past episode.  His naming of Taylor Swift songs reminded me of Dee's big toe last season.  And of course, showing how insulated he is in the tribe and having a tight #1 in Maria.  Liz and Moriah moved down since they were their tribe's sit-outs, and if either of their tribes loses and they want to focus on challenge strength, they are the likely targets.  Funny how my top 6 stayed largely intact outside of Charlie jumping in and basically replacing Kenzie.  Now, people of Charlie's archetype don't do well at final tribals (see Spencer), but he's in law school and I could see it happen.  You never know.

After Episode 3 Four Word Game

Bhanu: History repeats itself, different?
I had to use this for Bhanu since he was the one most affected, but history sure repeated itself.  In 44, Matthew was pulled from the game, which saved Josh from certain elimination.  Now a very similar thing happens here.  The similarities: The pulled player was from the dominant orange tribe, and the saved player is a gay minority who was certainly going on a struggling purple tribe.  It only saved Josh for a little bit.  Now it's up to Bhanu to see if this can save him further.  But I doubt it.

Liz: Not really on bottom
With Randen's departure, Liz isn't really on the bottom.  Maybe she never really was.  But Venus certainly is with no ties to the rest of the group.  Liz should make it to around the merge, at least.  Although I could see her being an easy vote at some point.

Moriah: Too quiet, fewest confessionals
Moriah is now tied with the fewest confessionals with Jem and Hunter.  That can't be good.  We got good content from Jem and Hunter tonight, but not Moriah.  That doesn't bode well.

Ben: Journey puzzle was doable
Yet Ben couldn't solve it.  He doesn't seem like the puzzle-solving type.  I doubt that lost vote will end up biting him in the butt, but it was a doable puzzle.

Tim: Slowly fading into obscurity
Tim went from 4 to 2 to 0 confessionals from Episodes 1 to 3.  That's not good.  But hey, even Tevin went down to 0.  But Tevin is in a much better spot.  I just worry Tim's not being set up well at all.

Venus: Odds stacked against her
But she's not out.  I have a feeling Venus might do better than most people give her credit for, but I could be wrong.  She really has to work on forming bonds with other people on the tribe.

Jem: Beware advantage perfectly executed
Hid it perfectly, nobody that we know of suspected a thing, and she looked at night.  Just perfectly done.  She's not a long-time Survivor fan, but she knew what to do.  

Kenzie: Bhanu tanked her chances
Bhanu called Kenzie the mastermind to both Ben and Liz, which, I think, just sunk Kenzie's game.  She's going the way of Kaleb I feel.  I do feel she played well this episode, consoling Bhanu, but her stock fell thanks to him.

Q: Some liabilities aren't salvageable
Q keeps trying to improve Bhanu, but eventually, he's going to realize that Bhanu can't keep his big mouth shut.  Why he wants Kenzie out when she's done nothing but vote with him baffles me.  

Soda: Most annoying cheerleader ever
Let's hope she doesn't sit out of another challenge.  That was painful.  Also, I hate to say it, but would she have been able to get over the barrel in the water?  I dunno....

Hunter: Built for Survivor, but...
Not to win.  Hunter is extremely crafty, and we saw how he dominated the bag toss at the challenge.  He was built for this game.  However, his social game seems to lack.  I can't see him winning at the end and earning enough jury votes.  I love Hunter and wish him the best, but he's losing most final 3's.

Tiffany: Most sane Yanu member
Easily.  Kenzie's not bad, but she's definitely getting targeted before Tiff.  I wonder if Yanu gets decimated, will Tiffany be able to slip by or will it be a complete Pagonging?

Tevin: Next episode will reveal
A lot of Tevin's future in this game.  He was shown saying "Soda got to go-da", which is an awesome quote, by the way.  If he can get his way, he'll definitely be a frontrunner.  If not, he might not have as much leverage as I thought.

Maria: Every mom gets purpled
At some point, right?  Happened to Heather, happened to Heidi, happened to Julie, now it's happening to Maria.  One confessional combined in the last two episodes.  And they've had 3.5 hours to work with.  Shameful.

Charlie: Most visible winning player
That is, the most visible player on the two tribes that haven't gone to tribal.  The Yanu tribe obviously gets the most visibility due to going to tribal all the time, but Charlie has the most visibility in terms of confessional count outside them.  That's still good to have.

And to our departed player...

Randen: Not way we predicted
Most Survivor fans predicted Randen to be a pre-merge boot due to how he came off in pre-game press.  But this is not the way we predicted at all.  He was actually doing better than we thought he would.  It's a shame his injury took him out of the game.

New power rankings!  How do things stack up after 3 episodes?

15. Bhanu (+1)
14. Venus (-4)
13. Moriah (+1)
12. Tim (-1)
11. Liz (+4)
10. Kenzie (-2)
9. Q (-2)
8. Ben (+5)
7. Jem (+2)
6. Soda (0)
5. Tiffany (-1)
4. Charlie (-3)
3. Maria (-1)
2. Hunter (+3)
1. Tevin (+2)

Biggest rise: Ben (+5)
Biggest fall: Venus (-4)

Bhanu remains in dead last, and Venus falls due to losing her closest ally.  Liz rises due to Venus falling and being a more obvious target.  Ben rises due to his likability and willingness to share with his camp and pulling off that lie about losing his vote.  Soda stays where she was despite Tevin seemingly wanting to get her next episode, but I think that was either a red herring or Nami won't go to tribal council.  Tevin does take the top spot from Charlie, despite Tevin not having any confessionals last episode.  But I think it was an anomaly.  Charlie is still a top contender for me, but I want to see a tad more.

After Episode 4 Four Word Game

Venus: Saved by bigger target?
Now Venus basically got zero content, but the target seems to maybe be shifting to Soda, which would be huge for Venus.  Hard to say since they still haven't been to trbal.

Moriah: See you can jump!
Granted a big jump was not necessary to succeed in the challenge, but the whole bit about Moriah training on how to jump was unnecessary and could've easily been cut since it didn't factor in the slightest.

Tim: Unknowingly playing awful game
That's not good.  He's now suspected of having the idol and planting the fake (GREAT move by Jem), he struggled in the challenge, and he's only sort of close to Ben.  Not great!

Liz: Go with the flow
That seems what Liz will do.  She seems like someone who will go with whatever the majority decides come the merge, even if it's to take out a Soda or Venus.  She very well could slip by until the end, but she's still not winning.  Possible FTC loser?

Kenzie: Perhaps in larger danger
Yes, Bhanu is gone, but he was kind of like a shield for Kenzie.  Kenzie's going to have to make friends fast or find another shield come the merge, IF she can make it there.

Q: Cut the dead weight
Had to.  I know he wanted to take out Kenzie, but she's a number, and his numbers have dwindled to very little.  If Q is going to succeed, he's going to have to make friends on another tribe.

Ben: Funnily caught in lie
I just thought it was funny how he was one of the main diggers for the "idol" box, and I believe he was the one who voiced that it may have been planted.  He who smelt it dealt it?

Jem: Rising fast for me
Jem is a dark horse winner contender, but perhaps she's even shedding that dark horse mantle.  If she uses Maria and possibly Charlie as shields, she could get very far and do very well.  I like what I've seen the last few episodes from her.

Soda: Fine line, endearing/annoying
Maryanne in 42 walked that line perfectly, and stayed just enough on the side of endearing.  Soda is trying the same thing, but she's not doing as well and is coming off as more annoying.  Even if she makes the end, I can't see her winning, at least against someone decent.  Her name will likely come up if Nami goes to tribal, but I think what we saw in the last episode may have been a bit of a red herring.

Tiffany: Just survive each vote
Tiffany is someone I could see winning a FTC vote, but she's just got to find a way to survive each vote.  It's the name of the game, right?  The odds and numbers are stacked against her, but if anyone can do it, "Tiff" can.

Charlie: Needs more winner content
Don't know what it is specifically he needs, but the more I watch since Ep. 2, the more I think Charlie's now not winning.  He's too much like a Drew or Spencer, good narrator, but almost 0% chance of winning a FTC vote.

Maria: Challenge not on her
The immunity challenge was not all on Maria, who struggled to get her ring off the pole.  It was also on Tim, who struggled to get the key or whatever off the floating platform.  Yet that seemed to get forgotten about.  Maybe we weren't supposed to feel bad for him, but feel bad for her...

Hunter: The quiet challenge beast
We get these sometimes on Survivor.  I'd argue Joe and Jonathan (42) were in this category as well.  Problem is, these players cannot win.  I love Hunter and wish him the best, but his social and strategic game are severely lacking.  He's still yet to have an episode with more than 2 confessionals.  He is the ONLY player you can say that about.  Bhanu has almost 6 times as many confessionals--insane.  I know, it doesn't help Nami hasn't gone to TC, but that's certainly where this season has struggled.

Tevin: No target on him
It's got to be a good thing that no one on their tribe has really targeted him.  I think Venus did for a brief moment, but I could be mistaken.  He's got decent chances, especially if he can get out Soda and call it one of his signature moves.

And to our departed player...

Bhanu: All time terrible player
I feel like I've said that about each of Yanu's vote-offs.  Jalinsky was overconfident, Jess was not cut out, and Bhanu was awful at the game.  Perhaps the producers should've thought better about putting these three on a tribe together.  Bhanu couldn't keep his mouth shut, got overly emotional, and was an all-out terrible player.  May he never grace our screens on Survivor again.


New rankings!  I'm really gonna try to shake it up this week:

14. Tim (-2)
13. Kenzie (-3)
12. Ben (-4)
11. Soda (-5)
10. Moriah (+3)
9. Q (0)
8. Liz (+3)
7. Venus (+7)
6. Hunter (-4)
5. Charlie (-1)
4. Maria (-1)
3. Tevin (-2)
2. Tiffany (+3)
1. Jem (+6)

Biggest rise: Venus (+7), also Jem (+6)
Biggest fall: Soda (-5)

Yep, almost previously unheard of Jem is my #1 this week.  I like to change my #1 around a lot, give a lot of different players a time to shine.  Numbers 13-7 are almost all interchangeable and I could swap any of them anywhere and be fine with it.  Tim for me, though, is the likeliest to go, so long as Yanu somehow avoids tribal, which at this point... they almost have to, right?  Hunter drops due to just not having content.  Tiffany rises because I can see her potential, and if she loses Q and Kenzie, she may be able to slip by as a non-threat without them.  I like her chances.

After Episode 5 Four Word Game

Tim: Still likely going soon
I still believe Tim is likely going soon.  He got skunked so badly the previous two episodes, he's still likely someone we shouldn't get too attached to.  However, he just had a great episode despite failing at the end with the challenge.  Good thing for him is no one seemed to blame him in the slightest.  But the only reason he wasn't the target was because they thought he had the idol.  We could see a split-vote where Tim is the main target in hopes of flushing his "idol".

Kenzie: Prove Bhanu's words disparaging
We are getting the mergatory next episode, so Kenzie will need to go to everyone and convince them Bhanu was throwing her under the bus.  If she does a good job of it, she could still go far.  It was good to see Kenzie also win a challenge, I think she needed it most.

Ben: More Danny than Sifu
For a while I've thought of Ben's arc similar to Sifu's, but I think he's gotten more content than Sifu.  Now I'm thinking he's more a Danny from 44.  He'll likely be a mid-merge if not early merge boot.  But good for him, I now expect him to make the jury phase.  But here's another thing.  He may be kept around because people like him so much for his good vibes. 

Soda: Rubbing people wrong way
I'm sorry, but her calling Venus a stick bug during the challenge is not much better than someone calling her a heavier animal like an elephant or hippo.  I wonder if that'll come up in the future.  I can see her as someone Nima players are willing to turn against even post-merge.

Moriah: Lost ally, now what?
It was not good for Mo who lost her closest ally in Jem, and who I believe was also left out of the vote.  So Charlie's Angels is dissolved since Charlie and Maria chose the boys.  It'll be interesting to see how Mo recovers, but she's likely going to be an easy boot along the way.

Q: Meat shield alliance unlikely
I can't see it holding up or working.  But it was a good idea.  It could end up being the majority group post-merge, but I feel like we saw something like this in recent seasons only for it to be dissolved rather quickly.  Q will need it if he wants to get far, though.

Liz: Ammo for Soda blindside
Liz voiced in Ep. 4 that she wants Soda gone, so if it's Tevin or Hunter leading the charge, she will be extra ammo for them in terms of vote numbers.  But that's all she's gonna be, and she could get dragged to the end, but Liz is not winning.  At least not from what we've seen so far.

Venus: Lay low, find bond
Venus is still seemingly missing a tight bond with another player.  Maybe she can join up with the Yanu 3, maybe she can join up with Siga.  But unless she does, she'll be an easy post-merge boot.  Also, she should've stuck on Hunter a little longer.  Shame for her.  It could've been much later in the day Hunter found the advantage, but it didn't look like it by the sun.  

Hunter: From fewest to most
Confessionals on his tribe, that is.  Crazy how that happened in one episode this close to the merge.  But Hunter got 10 confessionals, helped by the Journey he went on and the fact he was the one to risk his vote.  Awesome of him to also find the Beware Advantage without anyone knowing.  Like Bruce last season, he'll probably be given a chance to find the key before they have to leave.  Or perhaps everyone else'll be coming to Nima beach.  They likely have the best camp.

Charlie: Keep Ben around long
That's what Charlie needs to do.  He's set up well, with Tim and Ben as likelier targets before himself.  Would Maria be a target before him as well?  Hard to say.  Fortunately, Charlie got his way and got to keep his bromance with Ben.

Maria: Why waste extra vote?
It is puzzling.  Her decision to vote out Jem wasn't as much, but her decision to waste her extra vote on her was not as clear.  Will it be clear to the rest of her Siga tribemates that she used her extra vote and not Ben having a vote?  Also, her decision to turn on Jem will loom large and will likely be one of a few that'll make or break her game.

Tevin: Lack of recent content
He had a little bit in the prior episode when he voiced how he wanted Soda out.  But he hasn't gotten too much since Ep. 3.  He had stuff about his dad and cleaning the fish, which was good.  I just worry we're maybe being set up for a potential blindside for him...

Tiffany: Best positioned player left?
She might be.  First off, Yanu will not be looked at as threats come the merge since there'll only be 3 of them.  Second, if a Yanu member is targeted, it'll likely be both Kenzie and Q before her; Kenzie for her social game and Q for his physical game.  Tiffany might be the Yam-Yam of this season...

And to our departed player...

Jem: Couldn't be more off
Last week I was singing Jem's praises, and even made her my #1.  Whoopsie!  That has maybe only happened once before to me.  I'll try not to make the same mistake.  Anyway, Jem way overplayed and didn't foster enough trust with Maria.  She probably in this situation should've shared her idol with Maria and Mo so the target could have shifted to Tim.  The key to surviving the pre-merge is laying low and going with the flow, and Jem played the pre-merge like the post-merge.  Not smart.  Oh well.

New power rankings!  Obviously there'll be a new #1, but what else will change in the order?

13. Tim (-1)
12. Soda (-1)
11. Moriah (-1)
10. Liz (-2)
9. Kenzie (+4)
8. Venus (-1)
7. Q (+2)
6. Ben (+6)
5. Tevin (-2)
4. Maria (0)
3. Charlie (+2)
2. Hunter (+4)
1. Tiffany (+1)

Biggest rise: Ben (+6)
Biggest fall: Liz and Tevin (-2)  Although if Jem was here she'd be minus 13. 

Another week, another new #1.  Hopefully, I'm not starting a curse and I didn't just curse Tiffany.  I like Yanu's players' chances now that the merge is coming, as they all rose this week.  They just need to survive the divided tribes.  I like Ben's chances a lot more.  He's right at that fine line of being too likable to be voted out.  Hunter rises a bit, he'll likely get an idol and hopefully he'll be able to get some immunities through challenges.  And Tiff... well, I like her chances of being able to fly under the radar and avoid the target.  We'll see.

After Episode 6 Four Word Game

Tim: Becoming a bigger player
Tim went from invisible to being a focal point of the game.  I do still worry about his short-term chances, as Yanu could stick with Nami and keep picking off Siga.  Doubtful, but it wouldn't shock me.  It was, however, good to see Tim being more involved.  Although I feel like he should've told Maria about the plus one alliance before Q approached her.  

Soda: Felt bad for orange
During the challenge.  For obvious reasons.  But she and they did surprisingly well, but it wasn't enough.  I was pretty surprised to see Soda's name NOT come up at the vote.  I was thinking some of the Nami would turn on her, but I think they wanted a Siga out first.  Will they be willing to turn on each other now?  Possibly.

Liz: Finale goat in making
Like Heather in 41, Romeo in 42, Heidi in 44, and Jake in 45, Liz is a finale goat in the making.  Sometimes you can just see these players from a mile away.  She was the only player shut out of confessionals for the merge episode, so not good. 

Kenzie: Mastermind not mentioned, yet
We know that Bhanu outed Kenzie as a "mastermind" at the journey he went to with Ben and Liz, yet that didn't seem to come up.  That could be because Kenzie was safe.  I still worry she may become a target, but there is that chance it becomes forgotten about and isn't mentioned again and Kenzie can get by in this game.  My original winner pick still has a shot.

Venus: Cold can't warm up
Venus even mentioned in a confessional she has a cold heart, and while she tried to warm up to Siga and Bhanu players, it didn't seem to work.  Q seemed frustrated with her, and it seems Siga will learn like Nami that she can't be trusted.  She may have survived this past vote, but in the new era, these players don't last long.

Q: Took too much control?
It did seem like Q was almost too much of a focal point, like he's being set up for a downfall.  I don't like it for him.  He had that direct conversation with Mo at tribal and I could see the other non-Yanu players bring his name up, with Tiffany maybe having to debate on whether to play her idol on him.  

Ben: Personable guy largely absent
Ben was maybe the most invisible player this past episode after Liz, which was surprising.  He was featured at the feast, shown being unwilling to throw out a Siga name.  I do still like his chances since there will be larger threats than him, but could he win a jury vote?  Over certain people, maybe...

Tevin: Needs a big move
Doesn't he?  Or at least an episode where he takes control, like orchestrating a blindside of Soda.  It seems like Tevin has just been there.  He's still a frontrunner to win for sure, but he'll need something on his résumé.

Maria: Turned on both women
Two episodes in a row Maria turned on Jem now Mo.  It sure seemed like they were being set up as a power alliance in the first couple episodes, but she's chosen the men.  And honestly, it might actually be the smart move.  I think it'd be easier for Maria to beat Ben and Tim in the finals than Mo or Jem.

Charlie: Name up, not concerning
I knew when Venus threw Charlie's name out that he wasn't going to actually be a serious target.  It's very rare in Survivor when someone's name comes up that late and they end up going or even getting multiple votes.  I'm not sure what Charlie's plan is, which is concerning for his chances.  Is he Siga strong or go with the flow?  He doesn't seem to be a part of the plus one alliance.  But I will say that was smart of him to vote Venus in case Mo's shot in the dark worked.  Someone should've done that last season in the Kaleb SITD vote.

Hunter: Tevin causing threat level
It has now been two episodes in a row that Tevin has made a slight jab at Hunter in the challenge.  He's doing it on purpose so people see Hunter as the bigger threat between the two.  I do believe the editors included these instances on purpose and I believe Hunter's threat level will become an issue, and likely soon.  Good thing he was able to find that idol just in time.  And I think Hunter will know when to or not to play it.

Tiffany: Can't lose allies soon
Tiffany will likely have two shields in Q and Kenzie, unless she gets targeted to make them weaker.  But she cannot afford to lose them too quickly.  It'll be interesting to see if the old Yanu tribe members get targeted next episode or not, with perhaps someone bringing up the Tika 3 from 44.  I would.  

And to our departed player...

Moriah: Bad luck, poor play
Mo got screwed by being on the worst of the two teams for the mergatory challenge.  And the fact her tribe didn't really back her sucked too.  But she played the mergatory pretty poorly, first lying about their past vote and being Siga strong, then attempting to come clean at tribal.  By that point, it was too late, and Siga members took that as a sign that they were making the right move in cutting her loose.  

New Power Rankings!  Double boot next episode, so I kind of have to factor that in.  

12. Tim (+1)
11. Venus (-3)
10. Q (-3)
9. Soda (+3)
8. Liz (+2)
7. Charlie (-4)
6. Kenzie (+3)
5. Ben (+1)
4. Maria (0)
3. Tevin (+2)
2. Tiffany (-1)
1. Hunter (+1)

Biggest rise: Soda and Kenzie (+3)
Biggest fall: Charlie (-4)

The bottom 5 are pretty interchangeable to me, and I feel like Tim, Venus, Q, and Soda are likely next potential targets, with Liz being a dispensable vote at some point.  The next four are also interchangeable, and I just moved Charlie down since his name came up.  Tiffany and Hunter switch, although I like Hunter's chances a tad more.  He may be a bigger target and threat, but he has numbers and he's been showcased a lot in the last two episodes.  I think Q and Tim like him.  Also, I like having new #1's. :)

After Episode Several Four Word Game

Venus: Unliked target somehow surviving
And it's not really through her own doing.  There have been other or bigger fish to fry.  How long Venus lasts will depend on how well the current group is vibing and if they want to turn on each other or just go with the easy vote in Venus.  Her taking credit for Soda's blindside was not smart and will only lead to her being a bigger target.  But everyone knows she can't win, so she's not a threat to win. 

Q: Commanding demeanor overwhelming some
Q has a way of almost demanding votes go a certain way, which is starting to rub people the wrong way, including his former Yanu tribemates in Kenzie and Tiffany.  They obviously want to keep him as a number as he won't turn on them (at least not for a while), but they'll need to cut ties with him if a majority of the rest want him gone.  I can't see Q making it too much further.

Liz: Purpled player this season
I hate to say it, it's Liz.  There's always someone who gets fairly far who does not get enough screen time.  It's been Heather, Romeo, Cassidy (sort of), Lauren, and Julie.  This season it's definitely Liz.  I feel bad for her.  She's a tagalong with no shot of winning.  But I don't think she's there to win.  She's there for the adventure and to her daughter what she could be capable of.

Charlie: Crap hand, great result
Charlie could not have been screwed over more with the way the teams were divided and the fact that Maria won immunity.  However, his name was almost instantly thrown out and not considered.  This could be attributed to the massive cracks on Nima, but I think it's also due to Charlie's social game.  He's playing great.

Kenzie: Crazy good social game
Here's the thing: If Kenzie lost at the finale or was an upcoming boot, they would not have shown the scene where she comforts Ben after his anxiety attack.  That easily could've been cut.  So I think she either wins or is the final boss.  Her social game is crazy good, and even if she loses Q and/or Tiff, I think she'll still be in a great spot.  And my theory about all the new era winners having great smiles would ring true if Kenzie wins.

Ben: That did not rock
Had to quote Ben on this one.  He lost a close ally in Tim and his numbers are dwindling.  However, the silver lining in that is that he's less threatening.  I still think Ben can win, but his odds keep getting slimmer since Siga's numbers keep dwindling.  But he definitely comes off with people better than I thought he would.

Maria: Another unlikely Mom winner
I say "Mom" since older lady takes up two words, but it still applies.  Anyway, I do respect Maria's game, but it's getting harder to envision her winning a jury vote if she gets to the end.  I'm thinking she'll join the likes of Heather, Heidi, and Julie, and either fall short of FTC or lose it at the end.

Tevin: Smart move, save later
Tevin clearly was the one who orchestrated the Soda blindside, yet he voted for Venus.  This keeps his hands clean, although if he wants to take credit for it at a FTC situation, his credibility may be questioned.  Still, I think it was smart and hopefully he keeps his mouth shut about it until the FTC, if he makes it there.

Tiffany: Not enough winner content
I don't know what it is, but I don't think we've gotten enough winner-focused content on Tiffany, if that makes sense.  She's playing a really good game, but she doesn't scream "winner" to me.  A late-merge blindside, possibly.  She'll definitely need to cut Kenzie if she's gonna win.

Hunter: Threat level somehow manageable
If Hunter really had a large level of threat in the game, he likely goes home last night.  Q stated he thinks he can take Hunter in challenges, which honestly, is laughable.  He didn't do any better than Hunter in the tribe portion of the game.  Hunter smartly did not play his idol, but I'm sure he was tempted.  Shows he trusts Q and the Yanu's.  I could see the finale made up of only Yanu's and Nima's.

And to our two departed players...

Tim: Needed more funny moments
Tim showed on occasion he has a good sense of humor, and I wish we could've seen more of it.  But when he got skunked in the pre-merge, we knew it was likely he was the final boot before the jury.  Weird how often it's been a black man.  Dwight, Sifu, now Tim.  

Soda: Fantastic exit, likable player
Over recent weeks I grew to dislike Soda, which was the editors hope, I assume.  But she had a great exit and I felt bad for her.  It made me wish Venus had gone instead.  I'm sure Soda will make for some great reaction moments on the jury; I can't wait.

New power rankings!  Down to the final 10.  I'm going to shake things up again.  I mean, I always do.

10. Q (0)
9. Venus (+2)
8. Liz (0)
7. Ben (-2)
6. Maria (-2)
5. Charlie (+2)
4. Hunter (-3)
3. Tiffany (-1)
2. Tevin (+1)
1. Kenzie (+5)

Biggest rise: Kenzie (+5)
Biggest fall: Hunter (-3)

Oddly, Hunter had the biggest fall, but he had a really good episode, considering.  It's just the two that jumped him had better ones, in my opinion.  To me, Q and Venus are very likely upcoming targets, with the remaining Siga (Ben, Maria, Charlie) in the middle due to me not knowing if they'll be targeted next or forgotten about.  Kenzie rises up and my OG winner pick is back at the #1 spot.

After Episode 8 Four Word Game

Q: Always must get way
Q seems like the kind of guy that always has to get his way.  He's used to it in his professional life, clearly.  As soon as he heard he'd be in the minority, he wanted to throw in the towel because he couldn't get his way.  I was starting to think he may be getting almost a winner's edit this episode, but the ending ruined it.

Venus: Always the second option
It seems like Venus is going to almost always get votes as long as she's in the game, in case the target plays an idol or SITD.  She may set a record of some kind, either for total votes or for consecutive tribals getting votes.  But Tevin was constantly throwing a vote her way and now he's gone.

Liz: Most OOLF move ever
I had to abbreviate, because I had to include this all.  OOLF meaning Out Of Left Field, meaning it came out of nowhere.  Liz was the most invisible character but came out of nowhere to make this blindside.  We haven't seen a move like this ever.  The closest thing would be Erika taking out Shan in 41.  This will definitely make her rise in my rankings, but others may take notice of this move and target her next.  That wouldn't surprise me.

Ben: May get forgotten about
Which is a good thing, at least for him to get further in the game.  I believe Ben's connections to Charlie and Kenzie will keep him safe.  And I am so with him in being done with the tribal council shenanigans.  It was too much.  

Maria: Will be a kingmaker
I don't believe Maria is going to win.  Yes she's very smart and has the chops to do it, but so did Boston Rob in Winners at War.  I think she's going to be someone's kingmaker, whether it be Charlie, Q, or Ben.  I think she'll end up being a kind of sacrifice for one of their winning games.

Charlie: Most level-headed player
This season is pretty crazy.  It's crazy enough that I think a very level-headed player will win.  Someone who can survive and stay calm in the chaos.  That could be Charlie.  Everyone else seems to either get too chaotic or doesn't have enough strategic game acumen.  

Hunter: Not enough strategic acumen
Hunter may become a challenge beast, but a couple clues stood out from this past episode for me that made me realize he probably won't win, even if he gets to the end.  One, Kenzie's comment about being surprised Hunter was strategizing.  And two, him being left out of a majority of the conversations (and the vote) at the live tribal.  He lost his closest ally and it would take an insane social and strategic game from this point for him to win.

Tiffany: Name throwing not terrible
Not like Q made it out to be.  Q blew a ton of things out of proportion this past episode, including the fact that Tiffany threw out Maria's name.  Although, she maybe should've known Q well enough by that point than to do that, since she had been with him since Day 1.  She survived this scare with her name being thrown out there, can she possibly do it again?  And can her relationship with Q be repaired?

Kenzie: Social butterfly floats on
Like Ben, I think Kenzie will get by due to people liking to talk with her and wanting to work with her.  She's not one to act rashly or with too much emotion, although she can get teary-eyed pretty easily.  For her sake, we can only hope she can stay this way and make smart moves going forward.

And to our departed player...

Tevin: Most shocking recent ouster
In my opinion, Tevin's "ouster" was one of the more shocking and out-of-left-field vote outs in quite some time, perhaps in the entire new era.  He had the opening narration, he was featured fairly heavily in the promo for this season, yet... he's an early merge boot.  Guess you can't fully trust those things.  

New power rankings!  Oh man, I have no idea how I'm going to rank them now.  If Tevin can be voted out... yikes.  I have to be careful.

9. Venus (0)
8. Hunter (-4)
7. Q (+3)
6. Liz (+2)
5. Maria (+1)
4. Ben (+3)
3. Tiffany (0)
2. Kenzie (-1)
1. Charlie (+4)

Biggest rise: Charlie (+4), also Ben and Q (+3) and Liz (+2)
Biggest fall: Hunter: (-4)

I had to do it.  I had to move my boy Hunter down to 8.  He was the only other one who didn't vote for Tevin.  Is the Six/Plus One Alliance finished?  Probably.  Charlie shoots up because I feel his law background will really help him stay cool in moments of chaos, and I feel this season is only getting started with the chaos.  Would he beat either of the Yanu women in the final 3?  Maybe not, but who's to say they even get there?  

After Episode 9 Four Word Game

Q: Respect all but gone
Q is going to need some sort of miraculous recovery if he is going to win.  Not only does he lose in most final 3's, but he's also a likely upcoming boot.  Crazier things have happened.  He is a very good persuader.  But no one wanting to talk to him this past episode is very telling.

Venus: She's trying, credit her
I give Venus all the credit in the world--she may be the most active player in the game, or one of them at least.  Problem is, no one respects her.  At least she isn't sitting on her hands like Romeo.  

Liz: Ultimate underdog story there
Sure, she got upset that Q "stole her thunder", but she can still bring it up at the end if she makes it there.  I'm liking her chances a lot more now, but she's been too under-edited to be our likely winner.

Maria: Slightly vocal, still shadowed
Still in Charlie's shadow, so she'll have to take him out before the end if she's gonna have a shot.  We do occasionally get to hear from her, but not enough.  She's still viewed as Charlie's #2.

Ben: Most middling game here
Like Austin last season, Ben is playing a very middling game and could garner a few jury votes.  He'd need the ideal F3, which I'm not sure can include Charlie or Maria.  But I feel he could beat Liz, Venus, or Q.

Tiffany: Target ever still present
She didn't play her idol even though she said she would, but fortunately for her, she didn't even get one vote.  She may be able to slip on by since no one will want to vote for her due to the threat of her idol.

Kenzie: Bhanu was absolutely right
She's the mermaid dragon, just like Bhanu said.  Nice and pretty up front but will get you from behind.  Reminds me a lot of Dee last season.  Will anyone notice and target her, though?

Charlie: Shades of Tommy, perhaps?
Charlie's game is starting to remind me of Tommy's from 39, who of course ended up winning, with Maria being Lauren.  I think that is a more apt comparison than Malcolm and Denise.  No one wants to target Charlie because they like having him around and working with him.

And to our departed player...

Hunter: ALWAYS play your idol!
When you're likely in danger, always play your idol.  He heard his name.  He told people about his idol.  Dude, just play it.  Huge blunder and misplay by Hunter, and honestly, he couldn't have handled it much worse.  It's a shame.

New power rankings!  A lot the same, with a couple changes.

8. Q (-1)
7. Maria (-2)
6. Venus (+3)
5. Liz (+1)
4. Tiffany (-1)
3. Ben (+1)
2. Kenzie (0)
1. Charlie (0)

Biggest rise: Venus (+3)
Biggest fall: Maria (-2)

Maria falls due to her lack of content, although I don't think she'll get targeted anytime soon.  I think the majority are going to let Venus get by since they don't consider her a threat, which is why I moved her up.  Tiffany falls due to being a target, although she still has her idol and likely has more game savvy than Hunter to know when to play it.  Ben moves up because middling games often win if all the threats turn on each other.  

Survivor 46 Preview and Predictions

Survivor 46 is almost here and the cast has been released, and as always, I will be making my predictions for the season.  I'll go through each cast member, give them a couple comparable players (who they either remind me of or may play like or have a similar result to), and talk about what I expect from them.  I'll also give them a predicted range of 6 spots, such as 12th-7th, 16th-11th, etc., like I always do.  Last season, I got 9/18 right, which was an improvement from 8/18 the season before, so I hope to get 10 right for this season.  I'll organize them alphabetically by first name so I can find them easier later on.  And for the first time, I'm going to watch a video of theirs that Survivor posted to get more of a feel for them as a player.  Hopefully, that'll help my accuracy.  And also for the first time, I'll indicate their starting tribe to even further help me narrow down who may be on a weak tribe.

Ben Katzmann, 31, Musician from Miami, FL SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: Benjamin "Coach" Wade, Cody Assenmacher
Ben is certainly "out there", with a personality that will undoubtedly take up television screens.  The question is if he will rub people the wrong way like Coach (also, oddly, named Ben) or if he will fit in like Cody.  I think there will be one person who is annoyed by him like Katurah was with Bruce.  I think that'll be either Jem or Moriah.  But either way, I don't see him gelling as well as Cody or having control over a group like Coach had.  I wouldn't be shocked at an early boot, but I'd be shocked if he won.  
Predicted finish: 14th-9th

Bhanu Gopal, 41, IT Quality Analyst from Acton, MA YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Sean Edwards, Yam-Yam Arocho
Bhanu, like Yam-Yam, is gay with an accent.  But I cannot see him having as much success as Yam-Yam.  I see him having a similar arc to Sean from 45.  I don't expect him to quit at all, but I could see Bhanu being swap-screwed or being left out of a vote.  He is one of the oldest.  If he's with Jess (which I predict) and the other four are against them, he may be in trouble.  But if his tribe is strong, he could make the early part of the merge.  Funny how his first name rhymes with his tribe name.  Wonder if that'll be mentioned.
Predicted finish: 15th-10th
CORRECT, 15th.  Although barely, and I have Randen's med-evac to thank for Bhanu lasting to 15, haha.

Charlie Davis, 26, Law Student from Boston, MA SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: Carson Garrett, Spencer Bledsoe
I swear they only look for certain white guys, and often they have a law background.  Anyway, I don't see Charlie winning; at best I see him as a losing finalist like Jake last season or Spencer in 31.  He may be able to luck his way into a majority alliance, which would certainly help carry him further, but even then I can't see him winning.  I can see him being slightly annoying to his tribemates based on what I saw in his video, so I could see him being a late pre-merge/early merge boot.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

David "Jelinsky" Jelinsky, 22, Slot Machine Salesman from Las Vegas, NV YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Sami Layadi, Will Wahl
Jelinky is a young male from Las Vegas, just like Sami.  He also reminds me a bit of Will Wahl, and I think he'll be likable and personable enough to get by in this game.  Unless he's dumb, he should get to the merge, and as you may see, I think he'll ride the coattail of Kenzie.  I think he's going to think he has more power in the game than he actually does.  He's got a lot of potential for being a big blindside.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th
WRONG, 18th.  Guess he was dumb!  All he needed to do was lay low, not volunteer for things, and if he had to do something (like "Sweat"), give it his all and not give up and he'd still be in the game.

Hunter McKnight, 28, Science Teacher from French Camp, MS NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: Tommy Sheehan, Jake O'Kane
Hunter would have to do something incredibly stupid to get voted out pre-merge.  He's almost too perfect of a player.  His main issue will be lowering his threat level, and if he doesn't, he will be a target come the merge, unless he always finds himself in the majority, which I doubt.  I'll definitely be rooting for him, but I just don't see him getting to the end due to the threat level he will undoubtedly obtain.  He may save himself from the first few pre-merge tribals due to twists, immunity, or having the majority at the time, but I can't see it all the way to the end.
Predicted finish: 10th-5th
CORRECT, 9th.  I was right that his main issue would be lowering his threat level.  Too big a threat to win.

Jemila "Jem" Hussain-Adams, 32, International Brand Mentor from Chicago, IL SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: J.Maya, Sandra Diaz-Twine
She seems like someone who will go with the flow and maybe try to make a big move late, which is certainly a potential recipe for success.  Her biggest obstacle will be surviving the pre-merge, which is never a guarantee for females/weak males.  However, I do not think she is the weakest person in her tribe, and I see her likely making the merge unless her tribe really struggles, which you can never rule out.  But I think she may come across as too likable (and become an eventual target) or she won't make big enough moves to win.
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd
WRONG, 14th.  She overplayed her hand, big time.  Her tribe did not "really struggle", yet she did not survive the pre-merge.  Yikes.

Jessica "Jess" Chong, 37, Software Engineer from San Francisco, CA YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Jenny Kim, Gabby Pascuzzi
She's a software engineer, so she's definitely smart and we'll definitely see her on the puzzle section of challenges.  Her tribe is potentially stacked and well-rounded, so hopefully, for her, they won't be attending too many pre-merge tribals.  I have this nagging feeling that she may demonstrate her smarts or puzzle prowess and it'll put a target on her back shortly after the merge.  But she's got this silliness that may endear her to others and get her to last further.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th 
WRONG.  17th.  I'm laughing at the "potentially stacked and well-rounded" part.  I could not have been more wrong about their tribe.  I also overestimated her ability to handle the game.

Kenzie Petty, 29, Salon Owner from Charlotte, NC YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Carolyn Wiger, Victoria Baamonde
Yes, I'm using those comparables because of the tattoos (Carolyn) and the red hair (Victoria).  Anyway, the more I think about Kenzie's chances, the more I like them.  I get similar game vibes from her as I do Dee last season, someone who can win or if they sit on their hands can still be a losing finalist.  I am strongly considering her as my winner pick.  One thing I've noticed about basically all of the new era winners is that they have a great smile.  Erika?  Check.  Maryanne?  SUPER CHECK.  Gabler?  Eh... better than Owen or Cassidy.  Yam-Yam?  CHECK.  Dee?  SUPER CHECK.  Kenzie?  CHECK!
Predicted finish: 6th-1st

Liz Wilcox, 35, Marketing Strategist from Orlando, FL NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: Aubrey Bracco, Emily Flippen
Liz is one of those zany ladies who is extremely high-variance.  I could see her as a pre-merge boot, a late merge boot (like Emily), or a losing finalist (like Aubrey).  I can't really see her winning, but that's not completely outside the realm of possibility.  I'll pick her to go around the time of the merge, maybe getting lucky enough to get somewhat far in the game.  I have a feeling she'll be outside my range, but the problem is, I don't know which side she'd be on.
Predicted finish: 12th-7th

Maria Shrime Gonzalez, 48, Parent Coach from Dallas, TX SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: Heidi Legares-Greenblatt, Marya Sherron
Maria is another high-variance player.  Again, I could see her as high as a losing finalist or as low as an early boot.  I was torn on her or Moriah on who would be the first female targeted, and I actually think it'll be Moriah, not Maria.  I think Maria will form connections like Julie did in 45; I'm guessing with Tim and/or Jem, at least.  I therefore will pick her to go further than I originally thought, but still not to the end.
Predicted finish: 9th-4th

Moriah Gaynor, 28, Program Coordinator from San Diego, CA SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: Sarah Wade, Aubrey Bracco
I couldn't help but use Aubrey a 2nd time, even Moriah referenced her in her intro video.  I see some potential with Moriah, but I just do not have a good vibe about her as a Survivor player.  Think Justine from 43, or Sarah or Maddie from 44.  I think she will go down as another forgettable pre-merge boot.  But like most of them, there's potential there.  I look at her tribe and it's either her or Charlie/Ben going first, depending on how alliances shake out.
Predicted finish: 18th-13th
CORRECT, 13th.  Although, just barely.  Even a reference to Aubrey in the show, and clearly they didn't want another one of those.

Q Burdette, 29, Real Estate Agent from Memphis, TN YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Danny McRay, Brandon Cottom
Q is someone that should survive the pre-merge, given he's easily the strongest member on his tribe.  But I could easily see him play himself out of the game shortly after the merge.  I'm not envisioning a winning game from him, as for some reason, former athletes don't win or even come that close.  I think he'll be on the jury due to being a physical threat.  He says he'll have the best final tribal council performance we've ever seen if he makes the final 3--problem is, he won't make it there.
Predicted finish: 11th-6th

Randen Montalvo, 41, Aerospace Tech from Orlando, FL NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: Gio Bustamante, Jesse Lopez
Randen may be the most high-variance player ever.  He's a guaranteed early boot or finalist.  Either way, he ain't winning.  His best hope is working behind the scenes and pulling strings, like an Omar or Jesse, but I think he'll be more a Gio and think he has more connections than he actually does.  If I had to place a bet on anyone on this cast being a pre-merge boot, it's Randen.  Even his own family doesn't think he'll do well.  His tribe should do fairly well in the pre-merge, but if they go to any tribals, Randen is in trouble.
Predicted finish: 17th-12th
CORRECT, 16th.  Although it was due to him being medically pulled from the game.  However, I've had people finish outside my predicted range because they were pulled too early, so it's only fair.

Soda Thompson, 27, Special Ed Teacher from Lake Hopatcong, NJ NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: Morriah Young, Katurah Topps
Soda seems too pleasant for the game of Survivor.  She's deathly afraid of butterflies?  Well, Cirie was afraid of leaves... but this is a new era.  If she can survive the first few votes, she might be able to make waves in this game.  However, I simply cannot envision a winning scenario for her.  Her best case scenario would be making the finale like Katurah.  Worst case is sharing the same fate as Morriah from 43.  I'm leaning more towards the latter.  She doesn't scream "Survivor" to me.
Predicted finish: 16th-11th
CORRECT, 11th.  Although barely.  She was more game savvy than I thought she would be, but her social game was similar to what I was imagining.

Tevin Davis, 24, Actor from Richmond, VA NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: JD Robinson, Brice Johnston
First off, Tevin basically got the only on-screen content in the season preview.  That has to mean he is one of the more memorable characters.  Although, to be fair, Brandon last season was featured heavily (along with Jake).  Yam-Yam was featured heavily too, though... but I don't think that means Tevin will win.  I did strongly think about making him my winner pick for the longest time.  But I think he's just slightly too young.  I don't think we'll see a male under 27-ish win in the new era, at least not for a while.
Predicted finish: 7th-2nd
WRONG, 10th.  Wow, I think most people were wrong about Tevin.  He got opening narration and everything, yet... blindsided.

Tiffany Nicole Ervin, 33, Artist from Elizabeth, NJ YANU TRIBE
Comparables: Drea Wheeler, Shan Smith
I gave her the above comparables because I expect Nicole to be a power player.  But the problem is, those kind of powerful women don't even tend to make the final 3 or even the finale.  I'm gonna predict the same for Tiffany.  She's certainly going to be one of the more interesting characters of the season, I predict.  She'll be good for some soundbites/confessionals, and possibly some Sia money.  
Predicted finish: 8th-3rd

Tim Spicer, 31, College Coach from Atlanta, GA SIGA TRIBE
Comparables: Jeremy Collins, Rocksroy Bailey
I gotta say, Tim gives me good vibes.  I love his attitude; he's my kind of funny (dry sense of humor).  I hope he does well, and I think he will.  I love that he put Shamar from 26 as his comparable--guarantee that's never been done before.  I can see him being someone people go to and trust, which is a very good thing, unless they realize he's too good at being that.  I have to consider him as a winner.
Predicted finish: 6th-1st
WRONG, 12th.   I misread Tim.  I definitely thought he'd be a more likable Deshawn type.  I should've realized he was a possible mid-game boot when I used Rocksroy as a comparable.  

Venus Vafa, 24, Data Analyst from Toronto, ON NAMI TRIBE
Comparables: Justine Brennan, Dee Valladares
Our last player is Venus, who is yet another high-variance player, as noted by her above comparables.  She comes off as strong but also a bit bossy, which I think could spell her early doom.  But here's the thing, no Canadian in the new era has not at least made the jury (Kaleb and Kane), and two have won (Erika and Maryanne).  I will give her the slight benefit of the doubt, but barely.
Predicted finish: 13th-8th

So with that, I will make a boot order that would fit all of those placements:

18th: Moriah
17th: Randen
16th: Soda
15th: Bhanu HE WAS 15th!
14th: Ben
13th: Charlie
12th: Jelinsky
11th: Venus
10th: Liz
9th: Jess
8th: Q
7th: Hunter
6th: Maria
5th: Tiffany
4th: Jem
3rd: Tevin
2nd: Tim
1st: Kenzie

There you have it, my winner pick for Survivor 46 is Kenzie!  Let's hope my winner pick does better this season than last (Sabiyah... yikes).  My winner picks have now placed 9th, 1st, 4th, 5th, and 16th.  Still, that's an average placement of 7th.  Not bad.  My next winner pick was Tim, who I think people will really like, but not too much.  

Actual winners I have placed 3rd (Erika), 1st (Maryanne), 18th (Gabler), and 3rd (Yam-Yam), and 9th (Dee).  So a bit all over the place, but mostly good.  

I will update this after each week under each player that gets voted out, saying if I was right or wrong in their placement range.  Any updates will be in BOLD.  Hoping to keep improving; let's shoot for 10/18!
  

NFL Coaching Hirings Grades and Thoughts

 With my Seahawks in the process of hiring a new head coach, I'm more invested in the NFL teams hiring head coaches than ever.  So, I thought I'd react and grade each head coach hiring, including the Seahawks', which I will go more in-depth on than other teams.  In order, chronologically:

Patriots hire Jerod Mayo: B-
NFL Linebackers have done well as NFL coaches in recent history.  Vrabel was good in Tennessee up until his last few seasons.  Demeco Ryans did fantastic in his first year in Houston.  Antonio Pierce did well as an interim coach (see below).  This is what you call a very safe move.  Mayo will keep the team from chaos, futility, and disorder, but I definitely think he may be a bridge coach.  The roster is one of the worst in the NFL and one offseason won't fix it.  Mayo learned from Belichick as a player and a coach, so for the players that remain it will be a fairly easy transition.  Maybe, if they make the right moves in the next couple of offseasons, they can return to contention around 2025-2026, but that is my optimistic view for them.

Raiders hire Antonio Pierce: B+
Could they have done better?  Maybe.  But you had their best player, Maxx Crosby, publicly state if they didn't stick with Pierce that he'd likely request a trade.  That speaks volumes.  Pierce definitely seems like an excellent motivator, but we haven't seen too much of him as an in-game strategist or decision-maker.  It'll be interesting to see.  I could certainly see the Raiders as a potential wild card next year under Pierce.  He's certainly better than McDaniels, and it's good to see Mark Davis learned his lesson.  

Titans hire Brian Callahan: B
I'm always lukewarm on coaches who have never been head coaches before unless they have an amazing pedigree, but Brian Callahan has a few things going for him.  One, he is the son of a coach and obviously learned a bit from him.  Two, he coordinated one of the league's best offenses in Cincinnati, and even made Jake Browning look decent.  But again, I am skeptical on new coaches, but as far as new coaches go, Callahan is a pretty darn good one.

Chargers hire Jim Harbaugh: A
Harbaugh has had success wherever he has gone as a head coach.  He went from bowl success with Stanford, to making the Super Bowl with the 49ers, to winning a national title with Michigan.  Next, Super Bowl win with the Chargers?  Hard to be upset with this hire unless you're a Chiefs, Raiders, or Broncos fan.  I can't give it an A+ because Harbaugh has been away from the NFL for a few years, and it has changed in that time.  We've seen coaches away from the NFL game struggle on a return *cough* Jon Gruden *cough*.  I doubt it'll be Harbaugh, but that is a possibility.  

Panthers hire Dave Canales: C
I don't know why this hire doesn't sit particularly well with me.  You have to give Canales some credit for helping revive the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield.  Can he do the same for Bryce Young?  We will see.  Here's the thing: The Seahawks' offense in 2022 and the Buccaneers' offense in 2023 weren't exactly lighting up scoreboards, and had great receiver talent already in place that helped, and both teams barely snuck into the playoffs.  Does Canales get this job if one thing goes wrong for the Hawks in 2022 or the Bucs in 2023 to prevent them from reaching the playoffs?  And he was an OC for only 1 season.  This is a boom or bust hire, so either Canales will join the ranks of McVay, Shanahan, and LeFleur, or he will get fired in a few seasons.  Good luck.  

Falcons hire Raheem Morris: D+
I can't wrap my mind around this.  This is a guy who was in the Falcons' organization a bit over 3 years ago, and he was even their interim head coach after they fired Dan Quinn, and they easily could've shed the interim tag and made him full-time.  Instead, they went out and got Arthur Smith, which turned out to be a mistake.  Now they've gone full circle and re-hired Morris.  I just don't get it.  I think Arthur Blank, the Falcons' owner, panicked and hired the guy he was most familiar with.  This is an incredibly safe and low-risk hire.  But I can almost guarantee the Falcons won't do any better than a borderline playoff team under Morris, and possibly a weak division winner if the division sucks (like Tampa Bay this year).  There's no way they'll do better than that.  And more realistically, they'll likely hover around 6-8 wins, just like they did with Smith.

Seahawks hire Mike Macdonald: A+
A young coach being installed in a place with a support system and decent owners?  That usually works out.  The only time it really hasn't was with Brandon Staley and the Chargers, although you could argue the "decent owner" front.  Let's hope we don't have another Brandon Staley, but something tells me we don't.  I love John Schneider's willingness to go young, and I wonder (we will never likely know) who his plan B would've been.  Macdonald had some amazing defenses in Baltimore, and he made stars out of Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey.  I think he fits in very well in Seattle, and I, as well as many fans, will be willing to give him time.  I'm betting we'll see a quick turnaround on our defense, but the offense might be a work in progress, depending on who he picks for offensive coordinator.  I fully believe he was chosen due to the success his defense had against the NFC West last season, and JS is hoping he replicates that with the Hawks.

Commanders hire Dan Quinn: C-
His defenses have done very well in recent years, and I'll say this: we have seen coaches have success when given a 2nd or 3rd shot.  Look at Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick (although, to be fair, DQ is no Carroll or Belichick).  I can see why Commanders' fans would not be too happy.  But hey, they poached him from a division rival, so DQ is certainly familiar with the opposing offenses in the division.  The key to his success will be the OC hire and if they can get a star quarterback.  Sam Howell is a fairly capable starter, but defensive-minded coaches need star QBs, which Howell is not.  This hiring can end up being a success, but so can all of these.  DQ will need to prove he can win without Kyle Shanahan as his OC.