Monday, August 24, 2015

My All Inclusive NFL Predictions!!!

In years past, I've often split my NFL predictions up, but this year I decided to combine it all into one giant post.  First off will be NFL predictions, then Seahawks.  Cannot believe the Seahawks play their first regular season game in less than 3 weeks.  It will be here before we know it.  First, my predictions (W/L) for each team and short thoughts on each team:
* = Wild Card
RED = Post-season recap

AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots: 10-6
Even though they're the defending Super Bowl champs, they have a chip on their shoulder.  One, they want to prove they can win it all fair and square, and two, they will have to without Tom Brady for four games who some feel was punished too harshly. 
This was before the Brady suspension was overturned.  Had it not been... who knows

2. Miami Dolphins: 9-7
Their defense will be Top 10 and Tannehill will be in the Top half of starting QB's, but will it be enough?  They'll make the AFC East as interesting as it's been in recent years.  I just don't think they have enough to get a playoff spot.  They're so close, though.
Their defense was not Top 10 (oops)... just a complete letdown from the Fins

3. New York Jets: 6-10
Todd Bowles will help the defense, but how will they score?  Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith aren't going to light up scoreboards.  Another year of disappointment for Jets fans.
I underestimated their offense, Fitzpatrick certainly is adequate.  Just a little short of the playoffs, though.

4. Buffalo Bills: 5-11
I believe that when mediocre teams (at best) get hype like the Bills have been getting, they fall flat on their faces.  And that's exactly what I believe the Bills will do.  They might get 7 or even 8 wins, but they've got no shot at the playoffs (Now watch them win 10+ games).  They just don't have a capable quarterback.  That will have to be their focus next offseason. 
They did win 8 games like I said they might.  Taylor made the pro bowl, but only as a replacement.  He's above average, but only slightly.  They need a better one to take them to the next level.


AFC NORTH
1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5
The offense may not put up as good of numbers this season, but they'll do almost as good, which is definitely good enough.  Their defense has lost Polamalu, but they've got a lot of young talent (plus a new Def. Coordinator) that will surprise. 
Just one game worse, despite losing Bell and Big Ben for a few games.  But they did not win the AFC North like I thought they would.

2. Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7
Andy Dalton is a serviceable quarterback, but I think Cincy may soon give up on him and he'll be a career backup from that point on.  I just don't think the Bengals did enough this offseason to improve. 
Dalton is more than serviceable, but his injury killed their chances of any playoff run.  They need to solidify his spot and maybe get rid of some knuckleheads.

3. Baltimore Ravens: 8-8
I predict a slightly down year for the birds in black.  They'll look good some games but bad in others.  Joe Flacco, already on the decline?  That's not an impossibility. 
Did I say slightly down year?  I meant a BIG down year.  They just lost a lot of close games and had some tough injuries.

4. Cleveland Browns: 6-10
Another year, another losing record.  The Browns MAY surprise this year, but whenever I predict a year to be the Browns' surprise season, they let me down and suck.  So prove me wrong again, Browns!
I wasn't really thinking they'd do even worse, but the Browns always find new levels of suckitude.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts: 12-4
Is there any team you can easily pencil in as the division champs already?  If there is one, it's the Colts.  Every other team in their division is trying to just improve, but it's slow for each of them.  One could surprise and make it tough on the Colts, but I don't see it being that close. 
Whoops.  Oh well.  Who saw this coming, though?

2. Houston Texans: 8-8
Brian Hoyer--while I like his name, I just don't think he's a quality starter in the NFL.  The Texans will compete with their defense and running game but if they fall behind it'll be tough for them to come back.
Just one game better... but not having a legit QB hurt them like I knew it would.

3. Tennessee Titans: 7-9
Marcus Mariota will have his ups and downs, but I think for the most part he'll look like a future star.  He won't be a star quite yet this year but he'll show signs of promise. 
I overestimated Mariota's teammates.  The Titans suck. 

4. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11
I hate to say it (As the Jaguars are my favorite AFC Team), but the Jaguars still won't be able to turn it around.  Gus Bradley might get canned.  I like Blake Bortles, but the defense is still a bit of a question mark as is their O-Line and running game. 
They finished with the record I predicted, Yay....!  Their defense was more than a question mark... they just weren't there.

AFC WEST
1. Denver Broncos: 13-3
If the Denver young O-Line can hold it together for Peyton and the running game, Denver will be VERY tough to beat.  Their defense will be their best in YEARS.  They're going to focus on the run and it should work.  I might be overestimating this team, but I'd be shocked if they didn't make the playoffs.
Only one game worse and they won their division again.  I was so right about their defense.

2. San Diego Chargers: 10-6*
San Diego always seems to be sneaky good--and they'll be that again this year.  Phillip Rivers--it's about time he accomplished something.  (Read below for more info)
Oops again.  Six games off... yikes.  

3. Kansas City Chiefs: 10-6*
Kansas City's defense will be one of the AFC's best, and their offense should be good enough.  I don't think Alex Smith is good enough to get them to the promised land, though.  But yes, three teams from the AFC West in the playoffs.
Nope, only two AFC West teams but one of them was the Chiefs like I predicted.  But after their bad start I was ready to say I was wrong. 

4. Oakland Raiders: 7-9
They just can't break through, can they?  This year it'll be because of too much competition in their division.  You'll see: They'll do MUCH better outside their division than in it.  Derek Carr I think is the real deal but they gotta wait until there's a team in the AFC West (Chiefs, Chargers) willing to take their spot in the basement of the AFC West.
Exact record I predicted.  KC and Denver are too tough... maybe with Peyton probably retiring Oakland can surge?

NFC EAST
1. New York Giants: 9-7
This division gets a lot of attention, but this season they'll suck.  The Giants are a decent team and Eli and Co. will secure a division win.  Barely.
They were half-way decent but not good enough to win a bad division, which I knew this would be.

2. Dallas Cowboys: 8-8
Back to going 8-8, haha!  Jason Garrett gets fired and Romo has to contemplate retirement.  Losing DeMarco Murray will hurt them more than they thought it would. 
Romo's injury set them way back.  While most others predicted playoffs for the Cowboys (Dummies), I knew they wouldn't.  They don't have good back to back seasons.  

3. Philadelphia Eagles: 6-10
They sure made a lot of moves/noise in the offseason and it's going to BACKFIRE.  Tebow will start a game, I predict (Bradford and/or Sanchez hurt/struggling).  Chip Kelley will be another coach on the hot seat.
It did backfire, but Tebow did not start, haha.  Kelley was on the hot seat, as he was fired.  Pretty solid call here.

4. Washington Redskins: 4-12
You ever going to stop sucking, Redskins?  Not this year, I predict.  RGIII thinks he's one of the best but he'll be lucky to be all in one piece at season's end with their shaky O-Line.  Jay Gruden, goodbye.
Oops.  Well, someone had to be halfway decent.  RGIII wasn't their focus, Cousins was.  

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers: 12-4
Losing Jordy Nelson certainly doesn't help, but they'll make do without him.  I think with Aaron Rodgers as your QB a lot of receivers can have success.  They'll be a team on a mission, hungry to make their first Super Bowl in five years.
They did make do without him, but their o-line struggled with injuries.  

2. Minnesota Vikings: 10-6*
They should have some entertaining games with the Pack and getting Peterson back will definitely help.  I am really liking their improving D, which I think will surprise a lot of people.  Teddy Bridgewater, meanwhile, will continue to improve.
Pretty much right about everything.  They did just one game better than I thought they would.

3. Detroit Lions: 7-9
What happened?  Hard to say.  Detroit's not really an organization that's been known for sustaining success, so I see a decline here.  Losing Ndamukong Suh will hurt, and their defense will struggle.
Yep, yep yep.  7 and 9 record, yep.  Couldn't have been more right. 

4. Chicago Bears: 5-11
Good luck John Fox.  Bears fans hate Jay Cutler, the defense needs a rebuild (for the most part) and they are a complete shell of a team that made the playoffs a few seasons ago. 
Just one game better than I thought.  They're getting better, but slowly.

NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints: 10-6
The Saints will benefit from beating their division (6-0 or 5-1 div. record, probably).  I'm not completely enamored with them (They did lose Jimmy Graham, after all), but they still have a capable Drew Brees and a running game that's above average. 
Oops.  Their defense really struggled, something I didn't even think about happening.  

2. Carolina Panthers: 8-8
Losing Kelvin Benjamin hurts for sure.  Funny, this year they'll have a better regular season record but no playoffs.  Who is there to help Cam and the defense?  Not a whole lot.
My bad.  Apparently they have a decent o-line, decent receivers without Benjamin, and of course, Greg Olsen.  

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9
I think they'll be a fun team to watch with Jameis Winston and a healthy Doug Martin.  They are going to upset a few teams that won't think too much of the Bucos. 
Overestimated both rookie QB's teams, but the Bucs came close to 7-9.  

4. Atlanta Falcons: 5-11
Another former Seahawks defensive coordinator goes to a team that's been struggling and won't be able to lead the team out of the basement.  We all wish you luck, Dan Quinn, but outside of a good QB and star receivers your team is lacking talent. 
They had a great start but finished with a dud.  They just benefited from an extremely easy schedule.

NFC WEST
1. Seattle Seahawks (?-?)
Ha!  You're going to have to continue reading to see my Seahawks predicted record!  But I do have them repeating, yet again, as NFC West division champs.  More below on my thoughts on the team. 

2. St. Louis Rams* (9-7)
WHAAAT?  No Cardinals here?  Nope.  The Rams are sneaky good, and Jeff Fisher will find ways to win.  I think I've picked them to surprise with a winning record a few times and each time I do they fail, so I'm doing it yet again. 
And AGAIN the Rams fail to live up to my prediction for them.  They just need a quality QB.  And it wasn't Nick Foles.

3. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
Carson Palmer is fragile and aging.  Their defense is good, but they just lost their defensive coordinator.  The Cardinals still do not scare me. 
My bad.  Palmer still has some in the tank.  Losing your D coordinator shouldn't hurt that much, I should know, looking at the Hawks losing two of them. 

4. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
They're not going to just roll over, but it's hard to see this team winning 8 or more games.  Morale must have taken a hit this offseason. 
Pretty much hit the nail on the head with this one.  

Before I get to the playoffs predictions, here is are Seahawk predictions, game by game (and team leaders!)

Week 1, @ Rams: Win, 23-21 (1-0)
Time for some payback.  The Hawks need a good start, and losing this game going into Green Bay would not be good.  Hawks may fall behind at some point but I could see a last minute Hauschka field goal to win it.
Dang Hawks.... but if Chancellor had played who knows?

Week 2, @ Packers: Loss, 31-23 (1-1)
I think the Hawks will more than likely start 1-1, especially with their first two games on the road.  Most fans would be ok with that, so long as they can generate a winning streak later.  This is a tough matchup and while a win wouldn't shock me, a loss is very possible.
Knew this game would be tough.  

Week 3, vs. Bears: Win, 34-13 (2-1)
Every year it seems the Hawks have a fun, easy win against an inferior opponent, and this year it'll be the Bears.  Can't wait to see the D feast on Jay Cutler and the Bears offense.
Also they played against Jimmy Clausen.  

Week 4, vs. Lions: Win, 33-17 (3-1)
This one won't be too close either.  One, the Hawks are virtually unbeatable in home primetime games.  Two, I predict the Lions to have a drop off this season so they're not exactly the Packers. 
Actually, it was about as close as it gets.  Early offensive struggles caused that.

Week 5, @ Bengals: Loss, 23-16 (3-2)
Ever since the Hawks joined the NFC in 2002, they have lost at least one game to an AFC opponent EVERY SINGLE YEAR.  Even in their 13-3 Super Bowl seasons.  Usually that game's on the road and often it's the first AFC game.  So, it's not about the Hawks not being good enough, it's about following tradition!
Yep... always lose to an AFC team.  Knew it.  Prove me wrong one year, Hawks!

Week 6, vs. Panthers: Win, 20-12 (4-2)
Three kitty mascots in a row, and the Hawks should win a tough "dog" fight here.  The Panthers will be seeking revenge for last year's playoff loss but won't get it. 
They were seeking revenge and they got it... twice.  Ugh. 

Week 7, @ 49ers: Win, 28-17 (5-2)
We might make this closer than it should be or not be able to pull away until late, but I think the Hawks end up on top.  Can't just assume the Niners will roll over.  They remember last year's Thanksgiving scha-lacking we gave them. 
Pretty much what I said.  

Week 8, @ Cowboys: Loss, 28-27 (5-3)
I can't remember the last time the Hawks won in Big D.  It might happen this year, but I can't say it will in my prediction here.  Should be a close and fun game to watch, though.  A lot of our Hawks will remember the loss at home we suffered to the Cowboys last season.
We played a much worse Cowboys team than I thought we would, and BARELY beat them.  But yay, a win in Big D!

Week 9, BYE

Week 10, vs. Cardinals: Win, 16-13 (6-3)
Won't be pretty, but the Hawks should get the job done.  Coming off a bye the Hawks should be rested and ready for possibly their biggest test to get the division crown. 
More of an offensive game than I thought it'd be.... gave up 39 points rather than 13... ouch.

Week 11, vs. 49ers: Win, 30-10 (7-3)
The few 49ers fans that show up at this game, well I tip my cap to them because they've got guts.  These two home games against division foes after a bye are almost both must-wins, regardless of the Hawks record at the time. 
Again, 49ers were what I expected. 

Week 12, vs. Steelers: Win, 31-24 (8-3)
The Steelers offense with the three B's (Ben, Brown, Bell) will probably give the LOB some fits, but I think the Hawks win this.  Hawks haven't beaten the Steelers since 2003, when Russell Wilson was 14!  Three home games in a row should mean three wins, but none of the three are pushovers. 
Offensive game, yep, win by about a touchdown, yep.  

Week 13, @ Vikings: Loss, 27-17 (8-4)
If the Vikings surprise like I predicted, this will be a tough game to win.  I think Peterson could run over us.  Don't see many good things out of this game. 
Haha I love it when the Hawks win when I predict losses, but I love it even more when they blow them out!

Week 14, @ Ravens: Win, 24-16 (9-4)
I think the Hawks will again split the road trip (like Weeks 1 and 2) and you could flip flop which is a win and which is a loss, but I'm gonna say the Hawks beat the Ravens. 
They didn't split the road trip, they actually won both.

Week 15, vs. Browns: Win, 42-10 (10-4)
Ok, it probably won't be that lopsided, but I can dream, can't I?  It might be that lopsided if the Browns have given up on the season and put Johnny Football in at QB.  This game is a must-win, because the Browns should be beatable at CenturyLink.
No, it wasn't that lopsided... Browns put up a fight. 

Week 16, vs. Rams: Win, 23-19 (11-4)
Again, can't look past the Rams, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Hawks lost the game looking ahead to Week 17.  I'll predict they almost let the game get away, but don't.
They did lose... but not because they were looking ahead.  Because the lines (Both D and O) got manhandled. 

Week 17, @ Cardinals: Win, 14-10 (12-4)
I think the Hawks will have the division locked up at this point so their offense won't need to be in fourth gear.  The Cardinals, meanwhile... who knows.  Also, if the Hawks lost this game I'd have them at 3-5 on the road... yikes.
Won in much easier fashion because the Cardinals really had nothing to play for. 

We know who will lead the passing and rushing statistics, but what about receiving and defense?
Receptions: Baldwin YEP
Receiving Yards: Lockett Nope it was Baldwin again, but Lockett was almost 2nd, right behind Kearse
Receiving TD's: Graham Maybe if he hadn't gotten injured... he did get injured right as Russell was finding his groove
Sacks: Bennett YEP
Tackles: Wagner Actually was KJ Wright, but Wagner was just FOUR behind him
Interceptions: Sherman Actually was Thomas, but Sherm was tied for 2nd
Offensive unsung hero: Tyler Lockett Well it was either him or Rawls... good call
Defensive unsung hero: DeShawn Shead He did have a good seeason... but I'd give that award to Lane coming back from injury

So 12-4 is what I predict the record to be!  And based on my predicted records, here are the playoff seedings!
Oh well.  Could've won either St. Louis game, or Carolina/Cincy games.  Coulda shoulda woulda.

afc
1. broncos, 13-3
2. Colts, 12-4
3. Steelers, 11-5
4. Patriots, 10-6
5. Chargers, 10-6
6. Chiefs, 10-6

NFC
1. Packers, 12-4
2. Seahawks, 12-4
3. Saints, 10-6
4. Giants, 9-7
5. Vikings, 10-6
6. Rams, 9-7

And of course you want me to do it!  Playoff predictions!

AFC Wild Card:
(6) Chiefs at (3) Steelers: Steelers win
The Chiefs STILL cannot win a playoff game.  Poor Chiefs.
The Chiefs DID win a playoff game... over the 9-7 Texans.  Steelers won their first game, though.

(5) Chargers at (4) Patriots: Chargers win
UPSET ALERT!   Also... karma's a bitch
Haha my bad.

NFC Wild Card:
(6) Rams at (3) Saints: Rams win
I feel like the better I predict the Rams to do, the worse they'll ACTUALLY do.  I see the Rams as a tougher and more physical team and for that reason I give them the edge.
Two teams who were eliminated from the playoffs in November.  Again, my bad. 

(5) Vikings at (4) Giants: Giants win
The last time I recall the Vikings and Giants playing a playoff game at the Giant's home stadium, it was the 2000 NFC Championship Game and the Giants CRUSHED the Vikings, 41-0.  It'll be the same result, but not as lopsided.
Vikings lost their only playoff game like I predicted.  The NFC East winner did not win a playoff game.  I should've known. 

AFC Divisional:
(5) Chargers at (1) Broncos: Chargers win
UPSET ALERT AGAIN!  WHAAAAAAT?  Peyton Manning contemplates retirement after this game.  Chargers all the way.
My bad, ok?!

(3) Steelers at (2) Colts: Colts win
Tough pick here, but I give the edge to the Colts in what would probably be a shootout. 
Sigh

NFC Divisional:
(6) Rams at (1) Packers: Packers win
Yeah, this is a no-brainer.  I don't see the Packers losing their first playoff game.
Packers did win a playoff game

(4) Giants at (2) Seahawks: Seahawks win
Giants will make it interesting... at first.  Eli Manning has a history of winning road playoff games so the Hawks would have to be careful. 
As did the Seahawks...

AFC Championship Game:
(5) Chargers at (2) Colts: Colts win
Phillip Rivers and the Chargers dream run ends. 
Man way to let me down Chargers and Colts

NFC Championship Game:
(2) Seahawks at (1) Packers: Packers win
I hate to say it.  I really do.  But the Packers will want this game more, I think.  Aaron Rodgers won't lose on his home turf.  Hawks will put up a fight but come up short.  :'(
Seahawks lose on the road... yep.  Lost to a team starting with the letters PA who they beat last year in the playoffs... yep.  Haha.

Super Bowl 50:
Packers over Colts, 31-28

This would be a dream matchup for the NFL.  Two of the faces of the NFL, Rodgers and Luck, facing off in a fun, exciting game.  Packers won the first Super Bowl and they'll win the 50th. 
My bad.  

So there you have it, folks.  I know, I really wanted to pick the Hawks to win the Super Bowl but it was too hard for me to do.  I was trying to be right more than hoping I would be right.  Before I go, lastly is my picks for NFL Awards:

NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Packers Nope, Newton
NFL Offensive POY: Andrew Luck, Colts Newton again
NFL Defensive POY: Luke Kuechly, Panthers How could I forget about JJ Watt?
NFL Offensive ROY: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks He was in the running...
NFL Defensive ROY: Trae Waynes, Vikings I knew it'd be a D-back... good job to Peters
NFL Pepsi ROY: Todd Gurley, Rams He actually got the other ROY award... this one went to Winston

That is all for now, but before I go, two last words:

GO HAWKS!!! 

Saturday, August 22, 2015

How to make sure you never go broke at the slots!

Something I thought of recently is how I play the slots when I go to the casino.  My three favorites are Snoqualmie, Tulalip, and Quil Ceda.  On my 21st birthday, I went to the casino and won over $200!!!  But that was sheer dumb luck, as I accidentally bet four dollars on a single spin and I got a bonus round on a game (Jackpot Party).  I went back to the casino once every few months or so after that, but more often than not I would leave with nothing.  If I brought 60, 80, or even 100 dollars often I would leave with nothing.  I would just keep betting and betting until my money ran out.  But I have recently started using a plan that virtually guarantees I will leave with something, and often I come out ahead.  How, you might ask?  I'll fill you in.

First off, it starts with how much you bring.  I used to bring (and bet) around 60 and lose it all.  Instead, you should bring 100-140.  Bring somewhere around five to eight 20's.

Now if you haven't been to a casino ever or not in years, what they do is if you decide to cash out, they will print you a ticket you can cash at a kiosk or you can put in any machine.  Before, I used to just put a ticket back into a machine regardless of if I had just won a lot or not.  My strategy is this:

- If you're betting and get above $30, cash out.  If you get to around $34 or a few bucks over you can keep pressing your luck, but do not go back under $30.  Get as high as you can, using your judgment based on the machine and your string of luck.

- If you're betting and get to $12, cash out as well.  You can go a hair below, but don't go below $10.  Try to stay at least a buck or two above ten dollars.

- If you cash out at any point, DO NOT reinsert that ticket into a machine.  Instead, hold onto it until it's time to leave and cash out.

So basically, you're converting all of your 20's into tickets.  If you plan to stay awhile, bring a lot of 20's.  Because you don't reinsert any tickets, you need to bring at least five 20's.  I have found this method to be a very safe way to play.  So far I've employed this method my last three trips to a casino, and all three times I came home with about how much I brought (maybe a few bucks under) or I came out ahead.  On average, I'm doing a TON better.  Before, I would just bet and bet and bet until I ran out of money.

Let's do an example.  Say you bring six 20's or $120.  And the most likely scenario is that three are winners and three are losers.  That would mean three tickets of $30 and three tickets of $12.  That would mean you leave with $126, six more dollars than what you came in with.  I know, it's more likely to get to $12 on a slot machine than $30, but even if you have four losing tickets ($12) and only two winners ($30), another likely scenario, you only lose $12.

I know that with this method it's actually kinda hard to win much, but if you go to a casino like me to have fun and enjoy the slots, this is the method for you.  No one likes losing, and while this doesn't increase your odds on average, it does make sure you don't leave with nothing.  Hey, $60 is better than 0 any day!

I know what you're thinking.  This logic doesn't work.  If you have a bad day in my previous method, you lose $60.  And if you have a bad day in this new method (five loser tickets of $12 each) you still lose $60.  But, the odds of having five loser tickets are pretty low.  I've yet to have it.

But the best advice I can give you is know when to quit.  I'm not saying quit every time you get over $30.  Know which machines are best for your betting style.  You don't have to switch machines if you get to one of my suggested amounts, just take the ticket out and put a new one in.  The machine will "think" you're a different person.  I don't know if that actually has any effect, but it doesn't hurt.

So do your best, folks.  That's about all I have.  Oh and don't forget to cash out your tickets before you leave.  That's kinda important.