Monday, April 4, 2016

Who Does Negan Kill? I Weigh the Odds

The sixth season of The Walking Dead is now over, and we are left with what is one of the biggest cliffhangers in TV history.  WHO DID NEGAN KILL?  Well, the good news is that the list of potential victims is finite, and we can pretty much eliminate a few names from the start.  They are (in alphabetical order): Aaron, Abraham, Carl, Daryl, Eugene, Glenn, Maggie, Michonne, Rick, Rosita, and Sasha.  I will go over each one and their chances.


Aaron
Chance: 3.5%
If Negan killed Aaron, it certainly wouldn't have much of an impact.  This particular death would only further enrage fans that we waited 6 months only to see Negan killed a secondary character.  Also, on Talking Dead, Scott M. Gimple talked about how the death of the character Negan kills will have a big impact on the rest of the characters.  I don't see that as a possibility with Aaron.  But if TWD continues its recent tradition of only killing off minor/secondary characters, then Aaron is an option.

Abraham
Chance: 25%
Abraham was my pick... BEFORE I watched the Season 6 finale.  The way Negan says "Taking it like a champ" suggests a tough character, and Abraham certainly is tough.  I feel the writers saved him from dying like Denise (how he did in the comics) to give him a more impactful, hero's death.  But something tells me I might be wrong about that. 

Carl
Chance: 0.000001%
Ok, Carl has basically NO shot of being Negan's victim.  First off, Negan mentioned how if anyone did anything he'd feed Carl's eye to Rick, as if they were separate from Negan and his chosen victim.  Also, if Negan did settle on Carl, I'd be shocked out of my wits if Rick didn't do something to try to stop him.  I'll eat a book if Carl is the one Negan killed.

Daryl
Chance: 17.5%
Why I think it could be Daryl: His death would certainly be impactful, and he would've "taken it like a champ". Why I don't think it could be Daryl: His death would almost be too impactful.  Killing off Daryl would upset way too many fans, and I don't think they're done with him yet.  Also, Daryl was clearly wounded by a gunshot and one hit from Lucille would've done him in more than likely.  So he's got a shot, but I'd be pretty surprised if it was indeed Daryl.

Eugene
Chance: 22%
The more I think about it the more I think it's Eugene.  I think he'd "take it like a champ" despite his apparent lack of toughness; Eugene has shown he has become a lot tougher than when he first made an appearance.  Also, his death would be heartbreaking and would certainly inspire Abraham, Rick, Rosita, and others to retaliate.  AND... with him standing up to Abraham, giving Rick his instructions on how to make bullets, it seems like the writers set him up to die.

Glenn
Chance: 27.5%
Glenn was the one Negan killed in the comics so he's a legitimate candidate here.  Although when Glenn acted out earlier Negan said that was a freebie, as if Glenn was safe.  His death would certainly be impactful as Glenn has strong connections to pretty much everyone else there.  The show does follow the comics a lot, but how much?  Enough as to where Negan's victims are the same?  Possibly.

Maggie
Chance: 0.5%
Maggie being Negan's victim has been speculated by a few but I'd be shocked if it was her.  First off, she wasn't in ANY condition to take a hit from Lucille and not immediately collapse.  Secondly, Negan stayed away from her in the comics (I believe) because she looked forlorn.  I'd be very, VERY surprised if it was her.

Michonne
Chance: 0.05%
Michonne has very, very little shot of being Negan's victim.  Why?  Because her death would upset WAY too many people.  First off, she's a fan favorite.  Second, she is black and would only further the cause that TWD is racist and kills off all its black characters.  She's a main character and while her death would be impactful (especially for Rick), it just won't be her.

Rick
Chance: 0.0000001%
Unless the writers have someone in mind to take Rick's spot as leader, it's not going to be Rick.  Imagine how defeated and broken all of the group would be if it was Rick.  Also, Negan wouldn't want to pick Rick and make him be seen as a martyr.  Finally, the last person Negan is seen pointing his bat at before moving on to his final choice is Rick; he clearly moves on to someone else. 

Rosita
Chance: 1%
Rosita's chances, like many others, are slim, because her death wouldn't be THAT impactful.  Also, I think Abraham would've surrendered himself for her (See Sasha).  I can't imagine it being Rosita at all.  Who could kill such a beautiful girl? 

Sasha
Chance: 2.5%
Sasha, like Michonne, is black and would enrage the people who think TWD is out to get its black characters.  However, her death has been rumored for a while and would have perhaps enough impact, especially with Abraham.  But she'd be such a dark horse, straight out of left field if she was chosen.  However, I will point out this: If Negan was indeed going left to right with his "Eeney meeney miney moe" game, he more than likely went one after Rick  (See Rick).  The person to the right of Rick as seen in an image shortly after Negan is introduced is Sasha (See above).

So, in summary, here they are by category:

Contenders:
Abraham
Daryl
Eugene
Glenn

Longshots:
Aaron
Rosita
Sasha
Michonne
Maggie

No way in hell:
Rick
Carl

Who will it be?  Perhaps TWD writers don't even know.  Unfortunately, we have to wait until October to find out.  The only real legitimate candidates are Abraham, Daryl, Eugene, and Glenn.  Two from the first season, two from Abraham's group.  October cannot get here soon enough.

Bonus: There has been a lot of speculation that perhaps Negan kills of TWO characters.  This would actually make a lot of sense.  Perhaps he kills one person, and then he's like "Nah, that didn't feel good enough" or someone else tries lashing out at him and pays the price.  My guess would be he kills a not so impactful character (Aaron, Sasha, Rosita), and just when we're thinking "Of course they didn't kill off a major character!" Negan goes and kills Glenn, Daryl, Abraham, or Eugene.  Could it be that he kills Rosita, and Abraham, still having feelings for her, tries to attack Negan in retaliation and Negan kills Abraham?  I could see it.

RECAP, SPOILERS: Could I have BEEN more right?!  My top two in terms of percentages (Glenn, 27.5 and Abraham, 25) were both killed off.  My theory that Negan might kill off two to be more impactful was ALSO true!  I thought the more impactful death would come first however, but I know this show too well.  Daryl was the one that lashed out and cost Glenn his life, something he'll have to live with.