Monday, April 10, 2017

Mariners Constantly Making Me Feel Conflicted

The Seattle Mariners have been one of the hard-luck organizations in Major League Baseball.  They're still one of two teams to have never appeared in a World Series, and have the longest playoff drought in baseball at 15 years and counting.  That's not me being negative, those are facts.  However, the roller coaster of emotions we Mariners fans go through in the course of a season is perhaps unlike any other team.  We go from thinking this team is cursed, unlucky, bad, to having glimmers of hope and optimism, thinking the end of futility is near.  It's much akin to being stranded on a deserted island and hearing a plane overhead, but them not seeing you, so you remain stranded. 

This Mariners season of 2017 has not gotten off well and it seems the Mariners are in a very unfortunate pattern of following up hopeful seasons and offseasons with losing seasons.  They have not even had two straight winning seasons since 2002-2003.  The influx of talent of Cano, Cruz, and Seager the past few years has given fans something to cheer for and given them hope.  But two of the past three seasons the team has fallen just short of the playoffs in the final week of the season.  It leaves fans wondering "What if?"  What if the Mariners hadn't gone on that losing streak, what if they hadn't blown the lead in a particular game? 

I think Mariners fans are the most bipolar fans in all of baseball.  When the team is struggling, I see two crowds.  One crowd thinks this team is the worst in baseball, everyone needs to be fired, and perhaps that the organization is cursed.  The other crowd remains optimistic, saying we can't play this bad all year, and we can't have this bad of luck all year.  I have to admit I flitter between both crowds.  I sometimes feel like boycotting this team, not going to games, watching their games on TV, or buying any merchandise, because they are underperforming.  But other times I know I will be rewarded for my loyalty and passion for this team, because whenever they do finally make the playoffs again, it will make it THAT much sweeter. 

I am never going to fully give up on the Mariners.  No matter what they do.  They could trade Felix, Seager, AND Paxton, and I would still call myself a Mariner fan.  They are too engrained in me to ever switch allegiances.  There's just something about MARINERS BASEBALL that makes me want to be root for them until the day I die.  Perhaps it's memories of Martinez, Griffey, Niehaus, and Ichiro.  Perhaps it's that the organization has EVERY reason to fold and just admit they are inferior as a baseball organization but every year do their absolute best to show they are a likeable and fun bunch. 

One thing I never want to be called is a bandwagon fan.  For someone who has stuck through a team's losing seasons, and the team becomes successful and popular and then get called a bandwagon fan is absolutely infuriating.  I will stick through the Mariners lack of playoff success until they finally start making the playoffs again, whether that starts this year, in 5 years, 10 years, or 20 years.  Anyone who ever calls me a bandwagon fan will get directed to this post.  I have been a fan of the Mariners since I started watching sports.  I've followed them through the lean post-2001 years, the disastrous 2004 and 2008 seasons, the horrific hitting seasons of 2010 and 2011.  I remember watching in agony as players like Carl Everett, Jack Cust, Milton Bradley, Scott Spiezio and Corey Hart were brought in watching them STRUGGLE.  I remember watching first round draft picks like Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow, Dustin Ackley, Phillipe Aumont, and (now) Alex Jackson not pan out.  I remember Bill Bavasi and Jack Zduriencik making bad front office decisions.  I remember, because I stuck with the Mariners through it all.

So what is my mood with this team?  Resilient.  Patient.  Determined.  I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic.  Odds are somehow someway this team will make the playoffs some year.  Five American League teams out of fifteen now make the playoffs.  That is exactly one third.  If everyone had the same odds, you should expect your team to make the playoffs once out of every three years.  Odds are, the Mariners will make the playoffs soon.  But that hump they have to get over is huge.  Once they do, they could go on a string of seasons where they make it 3 in a row, 4 out of 6, something like that.  But once they get over that hump, it'll be so worth the wait AND I'll be right there in the middle cheering the Mariners on.  

Sunday, April 2, 2017

My Almost Too Late 2017 MLB and Mariners Predictions

Well the baseball season is underway, but not the Mariners regular season, so technically I'm not too late for this.  Like every year, I will predict an order of finish for each division in baseball, some end of season awards, and Mariners leaders in each category. 

NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
2. New York Mets
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Miami Marlins
5. Philadelphia Phillies
Summary: The Nats are too loaded to not at least get 2nd, and if anyone in the Mets rotation struggles or gets hurt (like last year), it'll be hard for them to win the division.  The Braves are a young team getting better and the Marlins aren't doing much.  The Phillies still aren't making progress.

NL CENTRAL
1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Milwaukee Brewers
Summary: The Cubbies will get a playoff spot, no doubt.  The Cards are almost always in it.  The Buccos will compete but there's too much competition.  It's a toss-up for last between the Brew Crew and the Reds.

NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Summary: I normally pick the Giants to win the division, but they're due for a down year, and if MadBum gets hurt they are in big trouble.  The Dodgers are too talented to not compete for a playoff spot, and the Diamondbacks are a team on the rise.  The Rockies will be a decent team and the Padres will probably finish in last.

AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. New York Yankees
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Summary: The BoSox loaded up  for a championship run, acquiring ace Chris Sale this offseason.  The Blue Jays are a well-built team and will vie for a playoff spot again.  The O's will be decent, but not great.  The Yankees will have pitching issues.  The Rays are relying on guys like Logan Morrison and Brad Miller still. 

AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins
Summary: The Indians are built like the early 2000's Red Sox, who Terry Francona also managed, so they will be a very competitive team.  The Royals still have a bunch of talent and might be motivated to win for the death of Yordano Ventura.  The Tigers are aging and won't be able to play good enough D.  The White Sox lost Sale and are a team without a leader.  The Twins are still the Twins. 

AL WEST
1. Texas Rangers
2. Houston Astros
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5. Oakland Athletics
Summary: The Rangers are loaded and will be motivated by their heartbreaking opening round loss to the Jays last year.  The 'Stros are still young and should play decent, if erratic, ball.  The Mariners meanwhile, well, you'll have to read below.  The Angels and A's will finish like last year. 

NL Wild Cards: Cardinals and Mets
AL Wild Cards: Blue Jays and Royals

MLB PLAYOFFS:
Wild Cards: Cardinals over Mets, Blue Jays over Royals

NL Divisional Round:
Cardinals vs. Cubs: Cardinals win
Nationals vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win

AL Divisional Round:
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox: Red Sox win
Indians vs. Rangers: Indians win

League Championship round:
NL: Cardinals vs. Dodgers: Dodgers win
AL: Red Sox vs. Indians: Red Sox win

World Series:
Dodgers vs. Red Sox: Red Sox win in 6 games

Red Sox are 2017 World Series Champions.  You heard it here first.  The Cubs have a surprising first round exit to their bitter rivals, the Cardinals. 

MLB Awards:
AL MVP: Mookie Betts, Red Sox
NL MVP: Corey Seager, Dodgers
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Red Sox
NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard, Mets
AL Rookie: Tyler O'Neill, Mariners
NL Rookie: Dansby Swanson, Braves
Comment: Betts and Seager signal a new wave of baseball.  Sale and Syndergaard lead their staffs.  O'Neill is a real long shot, but if he gets his shot early enough I could see him emerging.  The Braves are a young team who will be propelled by their young SS Swanson.

SEATTLE MARINERS PREDICTIONS
Record: 79-81
Yep.  for the 5th straight time, the Mariners follow up a winning season with a losing season, although not by much.  The hitting will be fine for the most part, but the rotation is way too shaky.  Felix may well be on the decline.  Iwakuma is old and might be done.  Paxton is inconsistent and injury-prone, and Smyly and Gallardo are barely legit starters.  If multiple starters get hurt, the Mariners are in for a world of hurt.  The bullpen is not much, if any, better.  There's a bunch of no names and unprovens.  Sure, Diaz is electrifying, but he struggled towards the end of last year.  Let's not forget the World Baseball Classic, which Felix and Diaz pitched in, which might cause them to falter down the stretch.

However, there will be some bright spots this year.  A no hitter from Smyly or Paxton?  Seager gets another all-star nod?  But if this team doesn't have a winning record this year, it might be time to start thinking if they're cursed.  At least with a decent enough LOSING record Scott Servais should hold on to his job.

Mariners leaders:
AVG: Robinson Cano
HR: Nelson Cruz
RBI: Kyle Seager
SB: Jarrod Dyson
Wins: Smyly
Saves: Diaz

Mariners team "awards":
Unsung hero: Mitch Hanniger
MVP: Seager
Cy Young: Smyly
Rookie: Tyler O'Neill
Let-down: Zunino
Defensive star: Jarrod Dyson
Out of nowhere: Taylor Motter
Comment: Hanniger has been quoted by Edgar Martinez to be the one Mariner hitter who will surprise us most, so I'm listening to 'Gar.  Seager will play all around fantastic baseball, hopefully getting off to a fast start.  Smyly will benefit from great D, so long as he can stay healthy.  Zunino hopefully will bring his average up a bit and his K's down, but I won't hold my breath.  Dyson will have some highlight reel catches in the outfield.  Motter will be an electric presence off the bench and be involved in some game-winning and crucial plays. 

Let's hope I'm wrong and the M's qualify for their first playoff spot in 16 years.  I would never be more happy to be proven wrong.  All in all, a winning season would be considered successful because the M's haven't had back-to-back winning seasons since '02-'03.  But the playoffs are the goal, even if it's a wild card spot.  There's two of them, so the M's have to do their best to at least snag one of them.  But an AL West championship isn't out of the question.  Again, let's hope I'm wrong.  I am just basing this on history, and feel like I am being optimistic for that.  Go M's, and good luck in 2017!