Top Seven Heartbreaking Sports Defeats for Me

Ah, Sports.  You experience the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.  In this, I am going to go over my top six heartbreaking sports moments and the top ten happiest sports moments.  Why seven?  Because only seven have been painful enough to be worthy of being on this list, thankfully.  Some of these left me angry, some left me sad, and some left me depressed.  Let's get to it!

7. Gonzaga gets upset by UCLA in the Sweet 16 - 2006
I remember this game.  I was so upset.  I wanted to cry like Adam Morrison.  Gonzaga should have won.  I had just become a fan of their basketball program.  The way the game ended was just the worst.  Turnovers, poor decisions, and poor defense led to Gonzaga's demise.  Fortunately, they got their revenge 15 years later.  But it was too late to heal the pain.  

6. Seahawks lose divisional round game to the Packers - 2020
Jimmy Graham was short.  I'll stick by that to this day.  Had he been marked short, the Packers would have faced a fourth down, likely resulting in a punt.  Or perhaps a fourth down stop.  The completion to Davante Adams moments before was another dagger to the Hawks chances.  Neither should have happened.  The Hawks were the better team, and I whole-heartedly believe they would have beaten the 49ers in the NFC Championship game the following week, or at least put up a better effort than the Packers did.  I will forever point to this game as the end of the Russell Wilson run, so to speak.  This was, I believe, the last playoff game Wilson played for us.  We didn't make the playoffs the following season, and after that season, Wilson was traded to Denver.

5. Mariners lose Game 3 of the ALDS to the Astros - 2022
The 18-inning marathon did not have the ghost runner rule, so that's why it went so long.  Of course, the Mariners had plenty of chances and had a superb start by George Kirby.  This was the first home playoff game for the Mariners since 2001, and their most recent playoff game as of the time of this post.  The Mariners were already down two games to zero, and would have to have won the next two games to have won the series, which is why it's only #5.  But the Mariners had their chances, and we knew Jeremy Pena's home run in the Top of the 18th was the nail in our coffin.  So to this day, the Mariners still have not scored a run in a home playoff game since 2001.  

4. Mariners lose in the ALCS to the Yankees - 2001
I was only 12 years old, so this moment isn't too vivid.  But the Mariners were supposed to finally get to the World Series.  They won 116 games.  Not getting to the World Series after that kind of regular season is one of the biggest disappointments in MLB history.  And the Mariners have not returned to the ALCS since this series, and it took 21 years just to get back to the playoffs.  I couldn't single out just one game, because none of them stick out to me individually.  Just knowing we should've gone on to the World Series is pain enough.  I think the team was worn out, and I also think they put too much effort into the regular season and matching the Cubs record of 116 wins.

3. Mariners lose Game 1 of the ALDS to the Astros - 2022
Yep, two from this series are on the list.  It stung.  We had the lead going into the bottom of the 9th.  We were on a roll and about to win our third playoff game in a row.  No one was expecting us to win this series, and we were three outs away from taking a 1-0 series lead on our division rivals.  Then, with runners aboard, Scott Servais brings in Robbie Ray to face Yordan Alvarez, who hits a walk-off home run to win it.  Just brutal for all Mariners fans.  Servais will likely be long remembered for this decision.  Like Carroll's decision to run the ball (see below), it was the turning point of the organization.  And not in a good way.  Who knows how the series would have gone if someone like Swanson was brought in instead, and we managed to hold onto the lead in game one.  That 2022 Mariners team was a team of destiny, until they weren't.

2. Seahawks lose Super Bowl XLIX - 2015
You might be surprised that this is not #1.  To me, it helps that the Hawks won the Super Bowl the previous year.  It sucks not being able to repeat, no doubt.  But the thing that bothers me most is that Jermaine Kearse's insane catch which put the Seahawks inside the 10-yard line doesn't have as much impact as it could have.  Kearse's catch, if it or a subsequent play resulted in a game-winning touchdown, would have made that catch one of the greatest of all time.  Greater than David Tyree's helmet catch.  I so wish Kearse could have reacted quicker and gotten in the end zone.  Or, that the Hawks had just given it to Marshawn at the one-yard line, or that Marshawn's final run would've gotten into the end zone.  Also, who knows how the Seahawks do in subsequent years if they win this game.  Maybe they win three in a row or three in four years.  We'll never know.

1. Seahawks lose Super Bowl XL - 2006
I still have not been more upset after a loss than the Seahawks losing Super Bowl XL.  I still hold much disdain for the Steelers, even though it was the referees who largely should be blamed.  I hate that our first Super Bowl was the most poorly officiated one.  I hate that the Super Bowl was played within driving distance of Pittsburgh and the crowd was almost all Steelers fans.  And the #1 seeded Hawks were playing a #6 seeded wild-card Steelers team which was not that good--they relied upon a lot of luck to win their playoff games.  They also had second-year QB Ben Roethlisberger, who had one of the worst statistical games by a starting quarterback in a Super Bowl.  Yet, the Steelers still won.  I remember breaking all of my Steelers toy helmets after the game (those little toy helmets you'd get from the quarter machines) because I was so upset.

Well, let's hope I don't have to add to this list anytime soon.  But sports, like the rest of life, have both good and bad moments.  You go through the bad so you can appreciate the good so much more.  So that leads me to want to do a reverse of this--best sports victories or moments compilation.  So look out for that soon!

The future of the Mariners

In April, I discussed how I could have been more excited for the Mariners' upcoming season, their slow-ish start, and who's to blame for the lack of success.  How little I knew then.  Sure, this team went on a hot streak from May into June to get a 10-game lead in the division, but then we all know what happened.  They currently sit five games out, a difference of 15 games over roughly two months.  And the biggest culprit to the Mariners' lack of success is well documented--the hitting or lack thereof.  They currently have an MLB-low .215 team batting average for the year and lead the majors in strikeouts.  The team's hitting approach is easily the worst in the majors.  There is no reason this team should not be hitting at least 25th in the majors and not be #1 in strikeouts with this roster.  

This team has been moving backward for the last three seasons.  They have gone from the playoffs in 2022 to barely missing them in 2023 to likely missing them by a bit more here in 2024.  That is the very definition of trending downward.  We've seen coaches or managers canned after one off year many times.  Sure, Servais has built a reputation and system here, but whatever he's done is clearly not working.  They were supposed to take steps forward after 2022, but instead have only gone backward.  Good coaching takes teams heading in the right direction, not steering them the other way. 

But as I've said, it's not entirely Servais's or the coaching staff's fault.  I guarantee if you could read his mind, you'd hear his grumblings with the lack of talent on the hitting side of things.  Too often he's had to put less than ideal players hitting third or cleanup.  Too often he hasn't had a capable guy to be the bridge from the starter to Munoz. 

So should he go?  I think he has to.  We see coaches and managers let go all the time when it's not entirely their fault.  Or even mostly.  But the Mariners would be smart to emulate what the Seahawks did and bring in an entirely new coaching staff.  Maybe try holding onto pitching coach Pete Woodworth, if possible.  

My biggest gripe with Servais is his lack of emotion.  I grew up with fiery Lou Piniella, so I almost expect it.  Servais, even in the worst of losses, is too robotic and lacks energy.  He does on occasion go out and fight for his players against the umpires, but it's not often enough.  Sure, he's good at making sure this team doesn't get too high or too low, but I really think he lacks in the motivation department.  

I fully expect the Mariners to finish around .500, missing the playoffs by a decent amount of games, and questions begin swirling about the team's future.  I'm going to one game this year (as I've already bought the tickets), but that's it.  I've paid less attention to them this year than any other year in my entire adult life.   How much I invest in them next season depends on how much they change going into 2025.  Will they have a new manager?  Will they finally invest in some quality bats?  Will they possibly even make a change at president or GM?  The more that changes for the better, the more I'll invest.  However, if they merely try to "stay the course", I assure you, they won't be getting much from me next season at all.  Of course, if they make so many changes that it becomes a rebuild, that will not do it for me.  All this disappointment has taken a toll on me, and I'm sick of it.     

Update: Servais was fired on Aug. 22, and the Mariners have done okay since his firing.  Maybe slightly better.  Do I agree with it?  Yes.  He and Bud Black were the only two managers in MLB to have managed for as long as they had without any divisional playoff wins or division titles.  Yes, Bud Black needs to go as well.  I like Dan Wilson, I think he's more relatable for the players.  Servais seemed to have this "my door's always open but not" type energy.  Like, he would come off as affable but you'd realize he wasn't as much.  

The team also announced Jerry Dipoto would be retained, and I'm honestly okay with that.  I know a lot of Mariners fans aren't.  But here's what Jerry has done: Built one of the best pitching rotations in baseball.  Built a farm system that has been ranked near the top often in the last 5 years.  And he's kept us at least as a competitive team, avoiding terrible seasons.  Jack Zduriencik and Bill Bavasi couldn't say that.  Dipoto is at least better than them, and I'd rather not let him go and risk getting another Zduriencik or Bavasi.  

It's hard to say how much of my time and money I'll invest into the Mariners in 2025.  Likely similar to 2024.  I may go to one game.  I'm not paying for cable or Fubo TV to watch them.  I likely won't buy any merchandise.  I'd love to be more invested, but I've got to see some actual championship-type moves made first.

Who's to Fault for the Mariners

 I decided against doing an MLB predictions post.  It's kind of my way of protesting the crap uniforms this season.  But mostly, I forgot.  I went into the 2024 season with less excitement than ever for the Mariners and baseball in general.  It's the first MLB season of my life that I won't be able to watch the Mariners on cable, after ditching it late last year.  So far, I've resorted to other methods (Ahoy, mateys!) to watch Mariner games, but I've also enjoyed simply listening on the Seattle sports app on occasion.  

Anyway, the Mariners have gotten off to another slow start, starting as bad as 6-10 but they won their last couple and now sit at 8-10.  But still, not the ideal start.  Just like the last couple of years, this team has gotten off to a slow start, and we may be looking back at this slow start just like we did last year as to why this team maybe barely misses the playoffs again.  

Fortunately, the entire AL West has gotten off to a slow start.  The Astros started even slower than the Mariners, and the defending WS champ Rangers lead the division with a .500 record.  The Mariners only sit one game back.   But we all know someone is bound to go on a run in the middle of the season.  We can only hope it'll be the Mariners, but it'll more likely be the Rangers or Astros.

So who is to blame for all of this?  I got bad news.  It's everyone.  Ownership.  Front office.  Coaching.  Players.  Every single department is to blame.  But as most sports fans know, it starts with ownership.  

The Mariners made a few cost-cutting moves this off-season, such as trading Eugenio Suarez and Robbie Ray.  This to me screams that ownership told the Front Office (Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander) that they could only spend up to a certain amount.  That's not the way to successfully run a team.  The ownership group, headed by John Stanton, handcuffed the Front Office and made their jobs tougher.  

However, the Front Office could have made better decisions, despite being handcuffed.  Was it wise to trade all we did for Jorge Polanco?  The Mariners have an influx of pitching but didn't use any as trade chips, either.  But honestly, I can't fault them too much.  They did what they thought was the best move they could do at the time.  Again, given free rein and virtually unlimited spending, this Mariners team would look better this season.  Think about if the Mariners could spend like the Dodgers.  Ah, if only.

I do also think coaching factors in as well.  I think preaching the same message over and over has gotten old with some players.  I wish I could read the minds of JP Crawford, Cal Raleigh, and Julio Rodriguez, and see if they'd rather have a different manager.  I think they would.  Now, Scott Servais isn't a terrible manager, but he does very little to elevate the team.  No one will ever call him one of the game's best.  Pete Carroll was considered one of football's best.  And he was just let go.  So why should the Mariners hold on to Servais if the team struggles more?  I know, different sport and different circumstances, but Servais has been given an incredibly long leash.  And I personally feel (along with many Mariners fans) that the Mariners success that they've had has been in spite of Servais, not because of him.

But all of this does trickle down to the players.  This still is a team that, if they all play to their capabilities, can win a lot of games.  That's the problem, though.  They don't, at least not early in the season.  So, what gives?  

It does all start at the top with ownership, and what gets them panicking and willing to change things is a loss of sales and money.  So that's why I urge Mariners fans to sail the fine seas with me in order to watch games.  Cut ties with cable.  Do not upgrade to be able to watch Mariners games.  Do not subscribe to Fubo TV.  And for the love of God, do not purchase those awful Fanatics jerseys.  And don't go to a game unless it's a special occasion.  

We really should only reward the team when they succeed.  For now, I'm withholding my money from any Mariners-related purchase until they start really winning.  I urge others to do the same.  If enough of us do it, ownership will get the message.  They are the main ones to blame.  

Mariners Off-Season Outlook after Two Payroll-Shedding Trades

Two big trades have been made so far this off-season for the Mariners; two trades that their fans have ridiculed the front office for making.  First was Eugenio Suarez to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a backup catcher and a reliever.  Then Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, and Evan White were sent to the Atlanta Braves for a AAAA-type pitcher (good in minors, bad in majors) and a solid relief pitching prospect.  Both moves have been seen as ways of shedding payroll.  Why would they do this?  Let me explain.

First off, there is no salary cap in MLB like there is in the NFL.  Owners are free to let their GMs spend as much as they want.  They'll just have to foot the bill for any salaries/bonuses they hand out.  It seems in the Mariners case that ownership has restricted the front office of Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander, who definitely would like to spend on a few big bats, but may have needed to shed some payroll first in order to be under a certain budget.  This isn't what fans of a team want to hear.  You should want your owner to allow your GM to spend as much as they need to in order to field the best team possible.  Limiting them only limits their chances of building a successful team.

But let's look at the good.  We haven't lost a ton.  Eugenio Suarez regressed in 2023 after a very solid 2022.  His OPS was down from .791 to .714, and his league-leading strikeout totals rose further.  He did play gold glove-caliber defense, but his offensive numbers still dropped, especially his power.  Jerry Dipoto made the comment that they wanted to be a more contact-focused offense, but my question is this: Why acquire high strikeout guys in the first place?  Jerry chose to trade for Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, known high-strikeout guys.  Perhaps his focus has changed, but that's not altogether encouraging.  

And of the three players we sent to the Braves, none were really huge impact players.  Yes, Kelenic still has a bit of potential, but he had two and a half seasons to realize it with us and just couldn't.  He had one hot stretch in early 2023, but that's it.  He's been largely a bust offensively.  He also strikes out a lot, like Suarez.  Marco was a back-of-the-rotation starter, who was hurt a huge chunk of 2023.  He was the longest-tenured Mariner, but he had reached his ceiling, and his ceiling quite frankly wasn't good enough for our rotation anymore.  And Evan White battled injuries and offensive inconsistency and lost his job to Ty France.  He wasn't going to regain his spot.  

So, we shed some dead weight, honestly.  Suarez and Hernandez (who left in Free Agency) were occasional good middle-of-the-order hitters, but just struck out too much.  That led to too many times where all we needed was a ball put in play and they struck out.  Marco was a lot of money for little return, and Evan White and Kelenic could never fully figure out hitting with us.  

But now let's look at the bad.  There are a ton of holes on this team.  Both corner outfield spots, DH, third base, and second base all need to be addressed.  There's also the fact we could use another starter with Robbie Ray hurt (*cough cough* Blake Snell! *cough*).  We should not be going into 2024 with our middle-of-the-lineup players being France and Raleigh.  This team, as it stands now, would certainly regress in 2024 if no major additions were made.  

So we can only hope and pray as Mariners fans that Jerry and Justin have a plan.  I'm hoping that they were given the luxury of increasing payroll at least a bit.  Perhaps they did the math and realized the guys they wanted to sign or extend after a trade would require more financial room than they already had.  But just because they have their eyes on a few players, doesn't mean they'll get them.  I worry they may have made this room unnecessarily, and they might strike out on acquiring some big names.  This off-season, simply saying "We tried" is not good enough.  

Our dream, of course, is to see big name after big name acquired by the Mariners.  We want to see the social media posts of "Welcome to Seattle, ____!" for a lot of household names.  We do not want to see it for players along the likes of Tommy LaStella, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock.  Of course, not every good player is available in free agency, and some will require a trade to acquire.  I just hope we don't mortgage our future in the hopes of getting back to the post-season.  That was attempted and failed at too many times from 2002-2021.  

The rest of this off-season will be hugely telling for this team and its future.  Jerry and Justin have their work cut out for them.  I think this is the single most important off-season of their Mariners' careers because a failure this off-season will likely eventually cost them their jobs.  I'm sure they're aware of the magnitude of this off-season.  Simply put, an abysmal showing this off-season, and they should not be surprised if ticket and merch sales drop.  At that point, none of us should spend any extra money on this team.  But a good showing will bring this fanbase back around and instill hope for 2024.

Five Biggest Needs for the Mariners for 2024

 The Mariners finished 2023 88-74, missing the playoffs by 1 game and the division by 2 games.  They failed to follow up their magical 2022 season with a successful step forward.  At best, they took a step sideways.  General Manager Justin Hollander has even admitted their moves this past off-season were not adequate enough.  They acquired Teoscar Hernandez and Kolten Wong in trades, and signed AJ Pollock, Tommy LaStella, and Cooper Hummel.  Only one of those players, Hernandez, was on the big league team at season's end.  It's safe to say they need to do better this off-season.  So I have compiled the five biggest needs for this team, and some possible names who could fill that role.  Ranked, in order from least to most important, here are the five biggest needs this Mariners team needs to address this off-season:

5) Rotation depth
Possible candidates: Vince Velasquez, Jordan Montgomery
It'll be hard to say how the back end of the rotation will look come 2024, but I think one thing the Mariners need is depth at the rotation.  Someone who would potentially be okay signing a minor league deal with an option to make the big league club.  I wouldn't be opposed to either Woo or Miller starting 2024 in the minors, especially if they have a rocky spring.  But one thing that hurt the Mariners this past season was the lack of rotation depth.  They need to sign someone to bolster the rotation.  
Result: No one?  I can't think of anyone the Mariners acquired for rotation depth.  They briefly had Anthony DeSclafani before shipping him out for Jorge Polanco.  Grade: INC.

4) Right-handed/switch-hitting outfielder with range, contact
Possible candidates: Harrison Bader, Jurickson Profar
We absolutely should not be starting Dylan Moore or Sam Haggerty in the outfield while on a playoff run again.  They are bench guys.  Jerry and Justin tried to address this with Pollock and LaStella last off-season but to no avail.  I like Bader, and while he struggled in Cincy, I love his effort on defense.  And Profar is a switch-hitter, but hits better historically right-handed, and he would add even more culture to our locker room, being from Curacao.  
Result: We got Mitch back... yay?  I like Mitch, I just hope he can stay healthy.  But he does not have much range or contact.  We also got Luke Raley, but he's a lefty and he too does not have much range.  Grade: D

3) Infielder that can hit
Possible candidates: Rhys Hoskins, Amed Rosario
Our infield just seemed to be filled with black holes this year, not counting JP.  But it seemed someone was always struggling, whether it was Ty, Geno, or whoever was at second base.  Rhys Hoskins was out all of 2023, but if we shipped Ty for a prospect or in a package, I'd love to have Hoskins instead.  And Rosario still can hit around .250 with solid D.  Our infield just needs to improve.  We still haven't found our answer at second base since trading Cano.
Result: We got Jorge Polanco, and if you want to count him, Mitch Garver, but he's counted more for #1 (see below).  We also got the aforementioned Luke Raley.  Our infield should hit better next season.  But we did have to give up a lot to get Polanco.  Grade: B-

2) Veteran closer/bullpen help
Possible candidates: Will Smith, Craig Kimbrel, Ryne Stanek
With the trade of Sewald and the loss of Penn Murfee to the Mets, our bullpen is in need of help.  Brash was overworked, guys like Topa, Campbell, and Thornton were used in higher-leverage situations than they should be, and it showed.  I would love it if we could bring in a veteran guy to add a presence and help mentor some younger guys.  
Result: We got Gregory Santos, he'd be the closest thing to a "veteran" guy that we acquired.  Hopefully he'll fit right in, but he might take a while to do so since he came to us hurt.  Lovely.  Update: We also signed Ryne Stanek late, a guy who I really like, so I'll raise this a tad.  Grade: B+

1) Full-time legit Designated Hitter
Possible candidates: Shohei Ohtani, Jorge Soler, JD Martinez
The last good full-time DH the Mariners had was Nelson Cruz, in 2018.  Before that, it was Edgar.  This team absolutely should not go into the season with guys like LaStella, Hummel, or Haggerty DH'ing.  Obviously, Shohei would be the ideal choice, with him joining the rotation in 2025 due to injury.  Soler would be a nice substitute if his player option falls through.  And I wanted us to acquire JD Martinez last off-season, but of course, he goes to LA.  I doubt he'd come here, but you never know.  We just need SOMEONE at DH we can count on, someone we can put at 3 or 4 in the order and never have to worry about.  
Result: We got Mitch Garver, our one lone significant free agent signing.  Would it be too much to ask for another Nelson Cruz type hitter?  I guess so.  We'll have to see what Mitch does.  I'm more excited for his bat than Polanco's or Raley's, for what it's worth.  Grade: B

Well, that is my list of the top 5 needs the Mariners have this coming off-season.  Let's hope they address most, if not all, of these.  I feel like if they address most of these adequately, a return to the playoffs in 2024 will be in the cards.  I'm going to come back, perhaps around spring training time, and comment on what they did to address these needs, and if it was good enough.  

The Mariners have already reached their peak, at least with this front office and ownership

Hey, this is Brian from Oct. 2023, the regular text is what I wrote towards the end of July.  It was right before the Mariners went on their amazing run in August.  Unfortunately, they followed it up with a stinker of a month in September.  I thought I'd go through and make any additional comments to what I previously said.  I'll save them for after the paragraph (if I have a comment), so I'm not interrupting too often.  

 I haven't done a mid-season review of the Mariners, but I think it's obvious why I haven't.  This year's team, the 2023 team, is painfully mediocre.  They capitalized last year on a lot of players finding success, and most of those same players have not been able to replicate last year's success, for the most part.  I believe last year was their peak, and they will not reach any higher heights with this front office and ownership.  I think this season is more of a regression to the mean.  I think the average amount of wins you will get with these kinds of teams is 80-90.  They're slightly better than average, on average.  This year, they're just average.

The Mariners finished with 88 wins, right where I said.  90 wins is about their ceiling.  They may get lucky and get 92, 93, 94 wins, but a division title is unlikely given the competition from Texas and Houston.

One reason why this team will never eclipse 90 or so wins or win the division or even get to the ALCS is because ownership has restricted spending.  Take a look at the last couple of big contracts they dished out: Robinson Cano and Robbie Ray.  It's safe to say that so far they have not been worth the money spent.  Cano did have a couple great years, but he was unable to help us get to the playoffs.  I think ownership and John Stanton are extremely hesitant to give Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander the green light on doling out a contract worth $100m or more, mainly because the last few haven't quite panned out.  They aren't the cheapest ownership group in sports, but they're cheaper than the average ownership group.  

Another reason why this team will never reach a higher peak is because hitting just cannot be developed in a consistent manner.  How many hitters have come through the Mariners' minor league system and had a successful career with them?  Not many.  Kyle Seager is basically the only one in the last 20 years.  Julio and Cal Raleigh can perhaps join that list, but both have had down years after great first full years in 2022.  For whatever reason, this team and organization can develop pitchers as well as anyone, but they cannot develop hitters.  The most baffling thing to me is how they preach "Control the Zone", yet the Mariners are consistently near the top of the league in strikeouts.  

Julio's massive August really boons his season, and I think it's safe to say he's a rare success story coming out of the minors.  Cal is borderline.  But Julio had so much upside it was hard for him not to pan out.  Also, the Mariners finished 2nd in the AL in strikeouts, behind only Minnesota.  But Minnesota was 4th in the AL in OPS, while the Mariners were barely above league average.  

The one thing I can fault the front office for most is the construction of the roster, namely the position players.  A team built on pitching doesn't need to be complemented by power hitters who strike out a lot.  They need consistent on-base guys that have speed, get around the bases, and play small ball to support the pitching.  It is a lot easier to play small ball and manufacture runs than it is to rely upon the home run ball.  Relying upon the home run ball is just asking for spurts of bad offense, which will ultimately result in losses.  Acquiring guys like Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez were not the smartest moves, because this team already had high strikeout guys in Julio, Kelenic, and Raleigh coming up through the system.  It's like having a football team with a great defense, but an offense that cannot run the ball nor has a short passing game.

One thing I am always quick to point the finger at during losses is coaching, namely manager Scott Servais.  But Servais is not an awful manager.  However, I do not believe he is the type of manager that can elevate a team with average talent.  He's great at motivating young guys, and would probably have a surprising amount of success on a team like Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Colorado.  And he'd probably do ok managing elite talent-level teams, like the Dodgers and Astros (which is true of most managers).  His in-game management and decisions leave a lot to be desired, such as his reliance on having a left/right advantage with the opposition.  Often, he will remove a better hitter for a worse hitter just to get that advantage.  He doesn't seem to have a good game feel, relying on colder bats in clutch moments than hot ones.  I don't think he's the biggest reason for this team's inability to do better than 2022, but he's certainly a contributing factor.  I think Servais, once he leaves the Mariners, will likely be mostly remembered for his decision to put in Robbie Ray against Yordan Alvarez in Game 1 of the ALDS.  If he goes with Swanson or someone else, the Mariners likely win the game, and who knows how that series turns out.    

I will always root for the Mariners, but it is extremely disheartening being as confident as I am that this team will never eclipse 2022 with its current front office, management, and likely, ownership.  In fact, I am willing to bet on it.  If the Mariners win the World Series under Dipoto/Hollander/Servais, I will get a tattoo of the Mariners logo and the words "____ World Series Champions", with the year they won it at the beginning.  I don't like the idea of permanently scarring my body with tattoos, but that just shows how confident I am that this team will not do any better than last season.  I could say I'd get a tattoo if they reach the ALCS or the World Series, but a tattoo saying "2024 ALCS representative" sounds pretty lame to me.  If they get to the ALCS or World Series under this regime, I will spend the combination of wins and team batting average on Mariners merchandise.  So if they win 95 games and have a team batting average of .250, I will buy $345 dollars worth of Mariners merchandise.

I'm sticking to this.  So long as Jerry, Justin, and Scott are with the Mariners, if the Mariners win a World Series, I will get that tattoo.  And I'll stand by what I said about spending money on merch, too.  I am that confident that this team will not do better than a borderline wild card/ALDS loser.  Last year, 2022, was their peak.

I hope I am wrong about all of this and the team surprises me.  But I have watched enough baseball, specifically Mariners baseball, to know that this team is still shackled by its ownership, front office, management, and roster construction.  They will have plenty of great moments and may once again sneak into the playoffs, but I will be beyond shocked if this team plays like one of the league's absolute best for any significant amount of time under this regime.  In my opinion, there are too many things that would need to change about this team and organization in order to consistently become one of MLB's best.  Simply firing Servais wouldn't do it.  Acquiring a contact bat: same thing.  But I can still enjoy their good moments when they come, despite the fact that I will be wishing they were more frequent.

Update, 2024: Well, the Mariners fired Servais, so I'm taking the tattoo offer off the table.  I'll still spend money on the Mariners if they at least make the ALCS under Dipoto.  But I knew Servais wasn't the guy to take us to the World Series.  But perhaps Wilson or someone else is.  

2023 Outlook for Seattle Mariners Players

 The 2023 MLB season starts this Thursday, and while I've already made my predictions for the season, I have yet to talk in-depth about my favorite team, the Seattle Mariners.  I'm going to go through each of the players expected to make the Opening Day Roster and say what I expect from them.  I'm later going to use these expectations and give them grades at the All-Star break and at the end of the season.  

PITCHERS
Matt Brash: 
I expect Brash to have an improved 2023, becoming one of our more dominant relievers.  I'd love to see him either be THE guy we use to face tough bats, or be a guy we can stretch out to 2 innings if need be.

Luis Castillo:
Luis will be in his first full season as a Mariner, and he'll be our #1.  I expect Luis to keep us in a lot of low-scoring ball games (think that extra innings game against the Yankees last year).  I would love to see an All-Star nod for him, but not making it wouldn't be the biggest disappointment, either.

Diego Castillo: 
All I want is control from Diego from start to finish.  Now he's going to get wild at times, but his games where he loses control need to be few and far between.  And we cannot afford him to go on streaks (like he did at the start of last year) where his ERA is in the double digits.

Matt Festa:
Festa's a good, all-around reliever and I hope he stays that way.  He's like Brash but without as nasty of stuff.  I'd love to see him close a game or two.  

Chris Flexen: 
It looks like Flexen will start the year in the pen, but will fill in as a starter when necessary (double-headers, injuries, etc.). This will be HUGE.  As long as Flex doesn't let when or how he's pitching affect him, I'd look for him to be one of our more important pitchers this season.  He could also be a very valuable trade piece at the deadline.

Logan Gilbert:
Logan started out red-hot last April.  I was thinking Cy Young.  But alas, he cooled off.  I'm not expecting Logan to be THAT good, but to be near it and to be near it for longer would be ideal.  Imagine if Logan shows some overall signs of improvement, and is only the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on our team?  Wow...

Marco Gonzales: 
Because of the acquisition of pitching and promoting through the minors, Marco has gone from our #1 to our #5 in just three seasons.  Crazy.  And he's handled it like the ultimate professional.  I expect Marco to be one of the league's best #5 starters, consistently putting out quality (or near quality) starts of 6IP, 3 runs or less.  

Trevor Gott: 
I'm not expecting a ton from Gott, a newcomer.  I just don't want him to suck.  Be on par with Festa and Castillo, and I'll be happy.

George Kirby:
Kirby arrived after Gilbert, but his ceiling is higher.  I expect George to improve on 2022 and be our second best pitcher (if not best) in his first FULL season (he started in May last season).  I wouldn't be surprised to see an All-Star nod for George, which would be reason to give him an A at the break.  

Andres Munoz: 
It'll be interesting to see how Servais handles Munoz this season.  Hopefully he doesn't put too much on him, like he seemed to do in the playoffs.  If Munoz's stuff can be just as lethal as last season, I'll be happy.

Penn Murfee:
Unfortunately Penn had the distinction of being the pitcher that allowed the Astros go-ahead home run in the 18th inning of game 3 of the ALDS.  I don't think too many fans hold a grudge against him.  I hope he can shake that and that it doesn't affect how he pitches in 2023.

Robbie Ray:
Robbie has been working on a new pitch, I believe.  We need him to have a better 2023 than he did 2022.  He doesn't need to be a Cy Young candidate, just someone good enough to be in our Top 3 starters (which he wasn't last year).  

Paul Sewald: 
Sewald was our defacto closer last season, and he wasn't perfect, but he was solid.  I hope some of the burden is taken off of his shoulders and he's given some lower-impact innings.


CATCHERS
Tom Murphy: 
The Murph is back!  He was our starter, but now he'll be backing up The Big Dumper.  I expect Murph to put up solid numbers and start at least 40-60 games, hopefully.  

Cal Raleigh:
The Big Dumper had such a great 2022 season, the highlight of course being his playoff-clinching walk-off home run.  If he can improve his average slightly and still hit dingers, I'll be happy.

INFIELDERS
J.P. Crawford:
J.P. has had up-and-down seasons the last few years.  I hope his average can climb (with the ban of the shift) and he can hit well from the bottom of the lineup.  I hope he hits well enough for Servais to consider moving him up to 1 or 2, but I won't hold my breath.  I also want his defense to improve well enough to earn him a Gold Glove nomination.

Ty France:
Let's have a season where Ty plays fully healthy, ok?  The bigger bases will help with avoiding collisions.  I do expect Ty to have a great year if he can stay healthy.  A repeat All-Star appearance would be great, but the Mariners haven't had many of those in recent memory.  

Eugenio Suarez:
Suarez had as great of season as we could've hoped in 2022.  I hope him playing in the WBC doesn't mean he tires out at the end of the year.  If he can continue to be a force in the middle of our lineup, I'll be happy.

Kolten Wong: 
Wong is more of a defensive player than an offensive powerhouse, so I won't be counting on his bat too much.  But I would love to see his average jump a bit from last season.  I'm also looking forward to all the sweet double plays he and J.P. will turn.  

OUTFIELDERS
Sam Haggerty: 
"Swaggerty" was a vital tool for Servais last season, and I hope he continues to be.  We will likely see him take over for Hernandez in the outfield late in games (like he did for Winker last year).  I also hope to see him play some more second base, a position he is capable of handling.

Teoscar Hernandez:
Teoscar will hopefully be a force in the middle of our lineup, much like Suarez last season.  I'm looking forward to seeing him playing alongside his DR countryman in Julio.  Hopefully his defense won't be a liability and we'll see some clutch knocks from him.

Jarred Kelenic: 
Listen, JK seems to be as ready as ever.  He had a FANTASTIC spring.  He seems focused and locked in.  We know he has speed, defense, and a cannon arm.  If he can hit above .200 (.220+?) and hit dingers, (on pace for 20-30), he will be a consistent starter.  There's nothing more Mariner fans want than to see JK succeed in a big way.  

AJ Pollock: 
AJ will likely start against lefties in left field, giving Kelenic a breather every now and then.  He also might get a start at DH if no one else needs it.  I hope he can provide a veteran bat, hit somewhat decently, and give Servais a reason to keep him in the lineup.

Julio Rodriguez: 
Man, what a year he had last season.  Can we expect bigger things in 2023?  Why not?  Julio is the face of this team, and we are counting on him to be an even bigger force in 2023.  Provided he plays decently, a repeat 2023 All-Star appearance is a given, considering he is now a household name.  

Well, there you have it.  I know I didn't get too much into numbers, but I didn't want to just to get disappointed.  I know I also didn't predict them to make the playoffs, but if most of these guys can meet my reasonable expectations for them, I see no reason why they cannot prove me wrong.  I'm stoked and I'm looking forward to a great 2023 season.  GO MARINERS!!!!

2022: A Successful Season for the Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners 2022 season ended in disappointment.  But for 29 MLB teams, that is always the case.  However, this 2022 season was remarkable.  The Mariners ended their postseason drought of 20 years and finally made it back to the playoffs.  

What's even more impressive is the wild card series the Mariners had.  They took care of business in game 1, and then in game 2, they came back from a seven-run deficit to win 10-9 in one of the greatest postseason comebacks in baseball history.  This was all done on the road in Toronto, a harsh environment to play in.  That series showed that this team can never be counted out.  

Because of the Mariners' Wild Card Series win, they were able to advance to the Divisional Series against the Houston Astros and play at least one home playoff game.  Unfortunately, one home playoff game is all they would get as they got swept in three games.  The Mariners lost the three-game series by a total of 4 runs.  They just couldn't get luck back on their side.

I said a month ago I'd consider this a successful season if the Mariners got to the divisional round and got to play at least one home playoff game, and that they did.  They were in each of the three games against the Astros.  They held a lead in the first two, which they unfortunately could not hold.  They went 18 innings against the Astros in game 3, only to lose on a fluke home run by the Astros.  They were close to winning all three games, yet lost all three.  

What seems so disappointing is that this team seemed to be on a run.  In game 1, the Mariners held a 4-run lead and seemed to be on their way to their third straight playoff victory and a huge game 1 win.  Instead, the bullpen folded, the Astros hit a walk-off homer, and the Mariners could never fully recover.  The Mariners only scored 2 runs in the final 27 innings of the series.

The big obstacle in the Mariners' way is the Houston Astros.  They have made it to six straight ALCS's, won 5 of 6 AL West division titles, and are always tough for the Mariners to beat.  They are the Goliath to the Mariners' David, and the Mariners will either have to best them in the regular season or beat them in the playoffs if they want to do any better in future years.  

Maybe the 2023 Mariners can win the AL West outright.  That'd certainly seem to be the most straightforward plan.  The Mariners are still in a 21-year division title drought.  Every other AL West team has won the division since the Mariners last won it.  

So let's hope the Mariners' front office makes the right moves this offseason to upgrade the team.  Moves need to be made so that this team can finally get past the Astros.  A couple bats, and a bullpen arm, and they might just be there.  It is imperative that the Mariners make progress in 2023 and not take a step back.

2022 Seattle Mariners Regular Season Grades - Pitchers

The 2022 regular season is almost at a close, and now it's time for me to grade the Mariners pitchers for 2022.  I've already done the hitters, and you can check my previous post to see that.  But how did the pitchers do?  Again, this does factor in expectations for each pitcher.

Starters

Robbie Ray: B-
I can't give Robbie higher than a B.  Has he been good for the most part?  Yes.  But he's had stretches where he gives up a lot of home runs, namely at the beginning and end of the season.  I don't think he's pitched quite well enough to earn his salary, but he has been better than the average #1/2 pitcher.

Luis Castillo: B+
Castillo was a much-needed addition for our playoff push.  He has been mostly great, but he did show a few signs of struggle.  No pitcher is perfect, but I'd have to say Castillo has been about as good as we could hope.  He' just a few bad starts away from a grade in the A's.

Logan Gilbert: A-
Logan had an amazing start, winning pitcher of the month for April.  He cooled off but never had any massive struggles.  He picked it back up late in the season and earned a spot as one of the Top 3 in the rotation for the playoffs.  Logan's first full season in the bigs went about as well as we could've hoped.

Marco Gonzalez: C+
Marco definitely had his ups and downs, which is just a kind way of saying he struggled too much for most people's liking.  Shows how much our rotation has come when Marco, our former #1 starter, is now #5.  I'll give Marco credit: he battled all season and never wavered or caved into pressure.  

George Kirby: A
Kirby's first season went better than we could've even hoped.  He showed impeccable control and went a long stretch without giving up a home run.  George proved he can be a top of the line starter for us, and the future is incredibly bright with him.

Chris Flexen: B-
Flexen pitched as well as a #4 starter could be expected to.  He had his ups and downs, just like Marco.  He handled his "demotion" to the bullpen extremely well and did everything that was asked of him.

Relievers

Diego Castillo: B-
Castillo had an extremely rough start to his season but turned it around.  He still had a hiccup or two after, as almost every reliever does.  But that rough start cannot be ignored.  Hopefully, if he's used in the playoffs, we won't see that side of him again.

Matt Brash: B+
Brash started as the starter instead of George Kirby, which was the wrong choice.  Fortunately, Brash seems to have found his spot in the bullpen.  Brash has some of the nastiest pitches I have ever seen.  And his performance in the 13-inning game was amazing, especially that double play he helped induce.  

Matt Festa: C+
Festa has been pretty good.  We just never know which Festa we'll get daily.  He's either been really good or awful, with no in-between.  I wouldn't want him in a high leverage situation in the playoffs.

Paul Sewald: A-
Sewald has been as good as we could hope, although there have been a few games where he gave up some costly home runs.  But he's still one of Scott's most trusted arms in the pen and rightfully so.

Andres Munoz: A
Munoz has become one of the best relievers in baseball, and that is no exaggeration.  He routinely hits over 100 MPH and has a wicked slider.  He could be an extremely dominant closer in our future.  Munoz's struggles have been few and far between as well.

Penn Murfee: B
Is there a more aptly named reliever in baseball?  Anyway, Murfee wasn't expected to be much this season but has been a very solid reliever.  He has had struggles every now and then, but he's still exceeded expectations.  

Erik Swanson: A-
Swanson, like Brash, is a converted starter that has thrived in the pen.  Swanson's ERA for a large part of the year was UNDER 1.00.  That's insane.  He wasn't perfect and was a bit wild at times, but he did become one of Scott's more trusted relievers.

Ryan Borucki, Matthew Boyd, Drew Steckenrider, Anthony Misiewicz: Incomplete
Not enough from these guys, but Steckenrider and Misiewicz were moved on from due to their struggles.  Boyd has been a solid lefty/long relief out of the pen and Borucki was fairly good out of the pen until his injury.  Borucki's best was definitely pitching multiple innings of relief in an extra inning game against the Blue Jays that resulted in a win.  

That's all I have for grades!  I'll likely do one more post on the Mariners, recapping the season and talking about their performance in the playoffs.  Hopefully it'll be longer than 2 or 3 games in the wild card round.  Go Mariners!

2022 Seattle Mariner Regular Season Grades - Hitters

 The 2022 MLB season is almost finished, and with that, I thought I'd hand out some grades to some Mariner players.  They have clinched a playoff spot for the first time in 21 years.  So for that, I will tend to grade a bit on the kinder side.  However, I must take expectations into account, so if they played great last year but not this year (even if they were on another team), I will have to take that into account.  Here we go:

Starters

Cal Raleigh: A-
Cal has been a godsend for manger Scott Servais.  After his slow start, boy did he pick it up.  Imagine after Raleigh's slow start that someone told you that he would set the record that very year for home runs by a Mariners catcher.  I certainly wouldn't have believed it.  He's also handled the pitching staff like a 10-year vet.  His average still leaves a bit to be desired. So hopefully, that rises next season.

Ty France: B+
Ty had a slightly healthier season and earned his first All-Star nod.  Unfortunately, he battled injuries shortly after the break and his average plummeted.  His defense has been very good, even when he had to play a few games at third with Suarez's injury.  Hopefully, he can stay healthy all of next season.

Adam Frazier: C-
I felt a D+ grade was too harsh, but would it be?  Frazier's average has hovered around .230, .240 for the second half.  He had one small hot spurt for a few weeks, but that's about it.  Not that he was expected to have any power, but that certainly didn't show much.  His defense has been average at best.  Frazier did not do enough to secure 2nd base for the future, leaving the Mariners' front office to possibly look again for a 2nd baseman in the offseason.

JP Crawford: C+
JP's season was quite the mixed bag.  He started out very hot, hitting .300 and even showing power.  He then cooled off considerably, and his defense seems to have regressed.  But I'll give JP this: He works counts and is one of the best "battlers" on the team.  Meaning he fights and works counts as well as anyone on the team.

Eugenio Suarez: A
In the Winker/Suarez trade, Suarez was almost considered an afterthought, a salary dump.  But boy, are Mariners fans glad we got him.  He hasn't hit for the highest average and strikes out a TON, but his home runs have been the most clutch on the team, and he has provided gold glove defense at third base.  The Mariners wouldn't be in the playoffs without him.

Jesse Winker: D
Jesse gets a D for Disappointing.  He hit over .300 last season and was an All-Star.  He's not even close this season (.220 or so).  He avoids a failing grade for his clubhouse leadership and his ability to draw walks.  That's it.  I can't forget to mention his defense, which has been way below average and has definitely cost the Mariners runs.  

Julio Rodriguez: A+
Based on what we expected (or didn't expect) at the start of this season, how can I not give Julio an A+?  A 25-25 season, amazing defense, and likely will lead the team in batting average at the season's end.  I wouldn't have believed it if I had said that to myself in April.  Julio has been everything this team needed and more.  

Carlos Santana: C+
His batting average has been less than ideal, to put it nicely.  But Carlos has hit some extremely clutch home runs and played some surprisingly good defense at first base.  We also cannot forget his clubhouse leadership and his being a role model to young players like Julio.  

Mitch Haniger: D+
It may seem harsh, but I expected a lot from Mitch when he got back.  Unfortunately, he suffered a severe ankle sprain after his first at-bat back and missed several months afterward.  Mitch did hit well immediately after returning but has since cooled off.  His defense has been solid for the most part.  We needed hot Mitch for more of this season.

Bench Players/Role Players

Dylan Moore: B-
I can't give him higher than that, I'm afraid.  Dylan somehow inexplicably leads the Mariners in on-base percentage.  But his average around .210, .220 leaves a lot to be desired.  He strikes out a lot for a speedy contact guy.  However, he has played above-average defense at six positions and has gotten some clutch steals.  

Sam Haggerty: B+
"Swags," or "Swaggerty," as he's called; it's hard to believe that he was a fringe AAA early in the season.  He has played some amazing outfield and was hitting near .300 for a few months.  He's been a player Servais could plug into either corner OF spot, centerfield, or even 2nd base if need be.  

Abraham Toro: D-
Toro could just not get his average above .200.  He did provide some clutch hits, but that's about the only thing keeping him from a failing grade.  His place on the roster is in jeopardy for the future.

Jarred Kelenic: D+
Kelenic also couldn't get his average above .200.  He had three separate stints up, and it wasn't until the 3rd time that he started hitting.  Unfortunately, it was too little too late.  But Kelenic has played some solid outfield and drawn his share of walks.

Luis Torrens: C-
He had some clutch hits, and I do believe his defense has improved.  He could get a lot better at framing pitches, I will say.  But for a guy who is supposedly a "hitting" catcher, he doesn't hit well enough.  We'll see if he'll do enough to earn the job of Raleigh's backup next year.

Everyone else: INCOMPLETE
Guys like Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, Curt Casali, and guys that are no longer in the organization like Jake Lamb, Justin Upton, Steven Souza, and Mike Ford just didn't have enough time for me to grade them.  

That's all for the hitters, look out for grades on the pitchers soon!

Twenty-One Years in the Making

 The 2022 Mariners, barring the most miraculous finish by Baltimore and the most epic of collapses by them, will make the playoffs for the first time in twenty-one years.  The playoff drought for this team will not see its 21st birthday if you count from the last playoff game in Mariner's history, which was October 22, 2001.  Just one more win by the Mariners and one more loss from the Baltimore Orioles will make it so it is impossible for Baltimore (or any team behind them, for that matter) can supplant the Mariners from a Wild Card playoff spot.

I have waited twenty-one long and painful years for this.  As a Mariner fan, I have endured ineptitude, horrible trades and free agent acquisitions and have always been disappointed by September at the latest.  It's going to be weird.  The Mariners in the playoffs seems so abnormal in today's world, like seeing someone still using an iPod shuffle or a Microsoft Zune.  But the Mariners making the playoffs has to become a new fad or trend, and one that will hopefully stick around longer than the Zune did.

It's hard to express my emotions right now.  To be honest, part of me is half-expecting to wake up and realize this was a dream and see the 2022 Mariners with a losing record.  So it might take a while for it to sink in with me.  

What would also help is having a home playoff game.  Playoff baseball in Seattle is like no other.  Unfortunately, there hasn't been enough of it in MLB history.  But playoff baseball in Seattle is, for lack of a better term, electric.  The Kingdome rocked in the 1990s with pennant fever.  T-Mobile park has shown signs of what the players have dubbed "The electric factory."  But imagine if the Mariners did damage and won a playoff series at home.  

Unfortunately, with the way the playoffs are currently designed, the Mariners would have to get the top wild card spot in order to guarantee themselves home playoff games.  Otherwise, they'd have to win their wild card series on the road, likely against Cleveland or Toronto.  Neither is an easy task.  So while the Mariners may end their playoff drought, they still might not get to host a playoff game, and that streak could continue.  

But I'm sure many Mariners fans, myself included, would take this situation in a heartbeat.  After twenty-one years, you'll just take any modicum of success your team can achieve.  To have the Mariners in a playoff series, even if it's entirely on the road, is something I've dreamed about for twenty-one years.  When I watch them play in the playoffs, it's going to feel so surreal, on the verge of feeling unreal, almost.  

I'm so stoked these guys are on the verge of ending this drought, and I wish them the absolute best for the rest of the season and in the playoffs.  Regardless of the finish (provided we clinch the playoffs), this 2022 season will always be looked back at fondly.  The playoff drought now is longer than the one this team endured to start its existence.  And you know what?  It's about damn time we made the playoffs.  Go Mariners.

What Constitutes a Successful Season at this Point for the 2022 Mariners

 The 2022 Seattle Mariners season has been quite the roller coaster.  From being 10 games under .500 to going on a 14-game winning streak, this team has really experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.  The Mariners currently sit at 82-67, guaranteed their first consecutive back-to-back winning seasons since 2002 and 2003.  But the team's sights are set on the postseason, to make their first trip there in 21 years.  

The Mariners are currently nearing the end of a three-city road trip, a road trip that has gone about as bad as it could for a contending team.  They salvaged the final games in each series so far from the Angels and A's, two teams that have no shot at the postseason.  They also seem to have lost Julio Rodriguez, their star player, for at least a few games.  Even if the Mariners sweep the Royals, they cannot have a winning road trip.

I'm left wondering what constitutes a successful season at this point.  The worst realistic scenario would be this hitting slump continues, injuries mount, and the Mariners limp into the #6 wild card spot and promptly lose two games in Cleveland.  That to me would not constitute a successful season given where the Mariners once stood.  

I'd say the bare minimum for the Mariners is they need to win a playoff game.  I could argue the Mariners need to host a playoff game, which would mean either claiming the top wild card spot or winning their wild card series.  I'll say this: If the Mariners can host a playoff game, it will definitely be a successful season, regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes.  If they cannot, it'll definitely be left up to the determination of their fans.

This recent stretch of losing and poor hitting is certainly concerning.  But if the Mariners can enter the postseason on a hot streak, good things can happen.  They'll need to use their final homestand to get right.  They'll need to use it to figure out which hitters will be on the postseason roster and to break some hitters out of slumps.  

Of course, the Mariners have not clinched anything yet.  The postseason is not guaranteed.  But a collapse of that proportion would be too much for most Mariners fans, myself included, to handle.  We have put up with too much heartbreak in the last two decades, and a collapse of that nature would put me over the edge as a Mariners fan.  

Once the season is over, I will make another post recapping and say if it was a successful season or not.  It'll be hard to say it's not a successful season if the Mariners make the playoffs, ending a 21-year postseason drought.  But if the Mariners limp in, promptly lose both games and fail to even host a playoff game, it'll be equally hard to call it a successful season.

The worst and best WAR seasons I have seen for the Mariners

 I thought it'd be fun to make two teams of Mariners players.  One team will be the worst I've ever seen in terms of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and the other team will be the best.  For a player to be considered, they had to have played the most at that position for the Mariners that year.  I'll comment on what I remember and possibly compare them to today's players.  First off, the worst Mariners team:

Catcher: Miguel Olivo, 2005 (-1.0 WAR)
I vaguely remember Olivo, who we obtained in the Freddy Garcia trade along with Jeremy Reed.  He wasn't a great hitter (although he had some pop), and his defense really lacked.

First Base: Richie Sexson, 2007 (-1.1 WAR)
Richie Sexson started out great, but sure fell off quickly.  His average plummeted and the strikeouts skyrocketed.  He just became a huge liability in the lineup.  The 2007 team tied with the Tigers for the best record for a team to not make the playoffs in the AL, so one must wonder if Sexson had been competent this season, would they have made the playoffs?

Second Base: Bret Boone, 2005 (-1.1 WAR)
Already the second member from the 2005 team.  Watching Boonie's downfall was heartbreaking, and watching his press conference after his release was even more so.  

Shortstop: Yuniesky Betancourt, 2009 (-0.6 WAR)
Boy, Betancourt struggled towards the end of his Mariners career.  He had marginal success in Milwaukee afterward.  But his last year or two here were awful, because he was bad at the plate and at defense, which you cannot afford at shortstop.

Third Base: Chone Figgins, 2011 (-0.9 WAR)
Is this any surprise?  Chone Figgins is often regarded as one of the worst free agent signings in Mariners history.  His asset of being able to make solid contact and getting on base vanished once he came to the Mariners.  

Left Field: Brian L. Hunter, 1999 (-1.0 WAR)
I vaguely remember Brian Hunter, but I do know he underperformed here compared to what he did in Detroit.  He no longer was a capable leadoff hitter.  The next closest was current Mariner Jesse Winker, who is on pace to have the worst WAR season since Hunter.  Hopefully, Winker doesn't do that.

Center Field: Jarred Kelenic, 2021 (-1.8 WAR)
Yikes... is all I can say.  Kelenic still has yet to figure it out (at least offensively), and you have to wonder if he ever will.  He's not terrible defensively, but when compared to Julio, Griffey, Cameron, and Gutierrez, he's not in their league.  

Right Field: Wladimir Balentien, 2008 (-0.6 WAR)
This year Ichiro was in center, prompting the M's to trot out a few guys, and the guy who got the most opportunities was Wladimir Balentien.  Boy, did he struggle.  I know he struck out a ton.  I also know he went overseas to play a bit after playing with the M's.

Designated Hitter: Carl Everett, 2006 (-0.6 WAR)
For an organization that had arguably the greatest DH of all time, they sure have had some awful ones in the past 20 years: Everett, but also Jose Vidro, Jesus Montero, Jack Cust, Corey Hart, and Tim Lopes.  So far, Abraham Toro has started the most in 2022 and would be added to that list, but he'll likely be eclipsed by either Kyle Lewis or Carlos Santana, thank goodness.

Total WAR: -8.7 WAR 
Seasons with multiple players: 2005

All right, now for the best (that I have seen)

Catcher: Mike Zunino, 2017 (3.4 WAR)
Mike had an interesting blend of great defense and power.  He just couldn't hit for an average or ever hit anything less than a home run.  But 2017 was a special year for him, one where I think he should've been an All-Star.

First Base: John Olerud, 2001 (5.2 WAR)
John Olerud was a model of consistency.  He had such a great approach at the plate, and I don't recall him ever making an error at first.  

Second Base: Bret Boone, 2001 (8.8 WAR)
We'll be seeing a few from 2001, and Boonie's 2001 campaign is still considered the best by a 2nd baseman in team history.  Robinson Cano gave him a run for his money in 2016, finishing with a 7.3 WAR.

Shortstop: Alex Rodriguez, 2000 (10.4 WAR)
Sure he's not well-liked in Seattle, but what he did before he bolted for the dollar signs was just incredible.  We still haven't seen a shortstop have this great a start to their career in baseball since, although Fernando Tatis Jr. comes close.  

Third Base: Kyle Seager, 2016 (6.7 WAR)
Seager is now considered the best third baseman in team history, so it's no surprise one of his seasons is here.  He had such a great glove (he honestly should have won more than one gold glove) and a sweet lefty pull swing.

Left Field: Raul Ibanez, 2006 (4.5 WAR)
Raul Ibanez had such a weird career.  How weird?  He was more productive in his 40s than in his 20s.  He might be the only hitter ever that you can say that about.  He was in the prime of his career this season, and he had such a great left-handed bat.  His defense... was ok.

Center Field: Franklin Gutierrez, 2009 (6.6 WAR)
Surprised to not see Griffey?  Well, for this list, I'm only going back to 1999, which is far back as I remember watching Mariners games on the regular.  And Griffey's WAR in 1999 was 4.9.  Guti, meanwhile, was such a great defender that almost any fly ball to center was going to land in his glove, and he also hit for a pretty high average, too.  Julio, the M's current centerfielder, has a chance to pass 6.6 WAR this season, but if he doesn't, I'd put money on him doing it in 2023.

Right Field: Ichiro Suzuki, 2004 (9.2 WAR)
We all remember how great Ichiro was this season, setting the all-time single-season hits record.  He carried the 2004 Mariners, although they had their first losing season in 5 years.  

Designated Hitter: Edgar Martinez, 2000 (5.7 WAR)
Of course it's Edgar!  How could it not be?  Edgar had his last two great seasons in 2000 and 2001, and 2000 was slightly better.  Nelson Cruz came close in the mid 2010's to matching Edgar's WAR, but fell short.  And of course, anyone else to be in this spot has just massively struggled.

Total WAR: 60.5 WAR

Seasons with multiple players: 2001, 2000

I think it's safe to say a team of the players first on this list would likely lose 100 games or more, and a team of the players second on this list would likely shatter the 116-win record.  But that's baseball; you don't always get every player at their peak.  But when you get one or two, boy, it sure is special.

Thoughts on Castillo Trade, M's Future

Just a few days ago, I warned the Mariners and Jerry Dipoto not to give up too much for a player like Juan Soto.  Unfortunately, they gave up a lot, and not even for Juan Soto.  They sent four prospects (3 of the top 5 in the Mariners' system) to the Cincinnati Reds for Luis Castillo, an All-Star pitcher.  He's a borderline top 10 starter in the game and still should have plenty of productive years left.  He is only signed through 2023, so the Mariners may only get a season and a half out of him.  Was this an overpay?  It will all depend on how things shake out.

I understand that you have to give up a lot to get star players.  But man, losing 3 of your top 5 prospects does hurt.  The winner of this trade will be determined by how much Castillo can help the Mariners toward a playoff birth and run and how well those prospects do with the Reds.  

I get it.  The Mariners are desperate for a playoff berth.  I am desperate for that, too.  But if the Mariners make the playoffs once or twice, each followed by early playoff exits, and another drought ensues, was it worth it?  I'd say it hardly was.  However, Castillo will solidify a very good rotation even further for at least the next year and a half, and as the saying goes, you can never have too much good pitching.

The good thing is that 99.9% of prospects are not a sure thing.  We weren't even sure Julio Rodriguez was a sure thing going into this season.  Jarred Kelenic was a highly rated prospect and has still not panned out, and he might never.  At this point, I wish Jerry Dipoto had traded him earlier while his value was still high.  That's what he did with our prospects he sent for Castillo.  He sent them away while their value was still high.  

Obviously, if you trade a prospect that becomes a perennial All-Star or Hall of Famer and don't get the value in return, it becomes an awful trade and one of the worst in franchise history.  But that's the risk you take with trades in MLB.  Every team in the majors has made a huge trade that they regret.  

As Mariner fans, we can only hope Castillo leads us to the playoffs, and we go on a playoff run, and the prospects we sent away only have marginally successful careers at best.  If we aren't able to end the playoff drought and the prospects have great careers with the Reds helping them get to the playoffs, that's going to be too much for us Mariner fans to handle.  We've seen this happen too many times before.  

I hope to look back on this trade and not feel remorse like I do so many other trades in Mariner history.  I often wonder what Mariners' history would've been like if we had held on to the likes of Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe, David Ortiz, and Adam Jones.  

Before I fail to mention, the first full game played after the announcement of this trade, Julio Rodriguez went down with a hand injury and went on the 10-day IL the day after.  The need for hitting became even more apparent.  But Jerry Dipoto decided to go with pitching.  I'm not wholely against that idea because pitching often wins in the playoffs, but if the bats go quiet due to a lack of depth and injuries, that's going to really hurt the M's chances of even making the playoffs.  

We will know in 2 months whether this trade is starting to be worth it or it's looking like another dud trade to add to the list in Mariners history.  Let's hope for the former.

The Mariners (and Jerry Dipoto) must be cautious, mostly with regards to Soto

 The trade deadline rapidly approaches for the 2022 MLB season, and as always happens, players' names circulate among the rumor mill.  The Seattle Mariners, in contention after their 14-game winning streak, will likely be looking to add a piece or two.  The biggest name on the market is one Juan Soto, an outfielder for the Washington Nationals.  He's still only 23 and rejected a gigantic contract extension, meaning he wants out of Washington (D.C.).  He's arguably one of the most valuable trade pieces ever on the market.  And the Mariners are rumored to be one of 4 teams strongly interested in him.  I say this to Mariners Team President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and the rest of the Mariners front office: Do not sell the farm for Soto.  He is one player.  What if something happens to him?  

The Mariners must be cautious.  We have built a strong core, one that is as strong as we have seen in the past twenty years.  To sell a huge chunk of it for one player is risky at best and foolish at worst.  What if a health condition is discovered in Juan Soto a year or two from now?  With the news of Mike Trout, it makes you want to be cautious about what you give up for certain stars.  Or what if he decides he doesn't like Seattle?  That would completely derail this rebuild, one that has taken eight years so far.  

Not to mention, the Mariners already have a Dominican young star in Julio Rodriguez.  They also have a plethora of other outfielders, just waiting for a pair to be healthy and playing well simultaneously.  Those outfielders include Jesse Winker, Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic, and Mitch Haniger.  Surely 2 of those could pan out and be very capable players.  Yes, trading for Soto would acquire someone we wouldn't even have to worry about.  But is ownership really willing to pay both Julio and Soto contracts that would total close to a billion dollars?  

The best players in Mariners history almost all come from the draft or they were signed as amateur free agents.  Griffey, A-Rod, and Seager were all drafted.  Felix and Julio were signed as amateur free agents.  Ichiro was brought from Japan.  The one exception being Randy Johnson, but he was not highly touted when the Mariners acquired him from Montreal.  My point is, trades or even free-agent acquisitions hardly have been huge successes in this team's history, especially when acquiring big name stars.  

If the Mariners could somehow get Soto for a handful of mid-range prospects, and maybe Kelenic or Lewis, I'd say go for it. But the Nationals apparently want a team's top 3 or 4 prospects.  Jerry Dipoto and the M's simply cannot afford to blow this up for one player.  Are all the top prospects the Mariners would trade for Soto going to live up to their billing?  Maybe not.  But it's an almost certainty that most of them will be big contributors in a few years.  

I just hope Dipoto is cautious.  I'd rather miss the playoffs barely again this year and go into next year stronger and hungrier than trade for Soto and have a quick playoff exit.  I want to end the playoff drought just as much as any Mariners fan, but not at the cost of our future.  

Grading each Mariner so far in 2022

The 2022 Mariners season is quickly nearing its halfway point, and this season has been less than ideal.  It seems the Mariners have taken a step back, although there have been a lot of things to not go there way.  One is injuries.  Mitch Haniger has missed time with two injuries, Kyle Lewis came back for about a week only to miss significant time with a concussion, and we have been without two relievers we were counting on, Casey Sadler and Ken Giles.  

Although the season is not over nor is it a "lost cause", there's still a lot of reason for concern.  However, there's also reason for optimism.  I'm going to give each player that's seen significant time a letter grade, and assess their overall games based on their expectations coming into 2022.  First off, Lewis, Haniger, and Murphy all get an "incomplete" due to being injured for a majority of the season so far.

Hitters

Cal Raleigh: C+
Cal got off to an extremely slow start offensively, causing him to be sent down.  However, his bat woke up, and he's done a very good job of handling our pitching staff.  A lot of Logan Gilbert's success has to be attributed to Cal.

Luis Torrens: D
He's been ok, his bat seems to very slowly be waking up.  His defense does seem to have improved from last season.  But as of mid-June he is still looking for his first home run of 2022.

Ty France: A+
Could we have asked anything more from Ty?  His defense has been great, and his offense has been even better.  He's been drawing comparisons to Edgar Martinez, and for good reason.  His average has dropped while his strikeouts have ticked up in recent weeks, so he's a borderline A/A+, but he's definitely the one lock to be an All-Star on the roster.

Adam Frazier: D+
He was expected to provide a high avg/OBP bat at the top of the lineup, but he has not.  His average has hung around the .230/.240 range, and we were expecting at least 50 points higher.  He's been riddled with awful luck, hitting straight to defensive players.  His defense has been adequate.  

JP Crawford: A-
JP is one of the bright spots on this team, and he easily could be slumping after signing a contract extension at the start of the year, but he really hasn't.  If anything, his defense has taken a hit, causing him to be near the top in errors by an AL shortstop.  But he's still made some great defensive plays.  

Eugenio Suarez: B
Suarez was almost an afterthought in the trade that netted him and Winker, but he has been definitely the better piece so far.  He's leading the M's in home runs currently and likely will the rest of the year, barring injury.  He's shown a propensity to strike out too much, especially in high-leverage situations.  But his defense has been outstanding, hardly a drop-off (if at all) from Seager.

Jesse Winker: D
Winker, along with Frazier, was acquired due to his ability to hit for a high average.  And also like Frazier, he has struggled.  His average is even lower.  Some worry about his lack of power numbers, but he never has hit too many, only hitting 24 last season.  One good thing has been his eye, as he leads the team in walks.  His defense leaves a lot to be desired, as there have been more than a few fly balls to left that a more athletic outfielder could have gotten to while Jesse did not.

Julio Rodriguez: A-
Julio got off to a slow start, which wasn't wholly unexpected, but that was partly due to the awful strike calls he was getting called against him.  But he heated up in May, coinciding with his first Major League home run.  He has relished hitting in the middle of the lineup.  But the best parts of Julio's game has been his baserunning and defense.  He currently leads the majors in stolen bases and has played great defense in center.

Jarred Kelenic: D-
It's a shame Kelenic wasn't able to produce, because come June the team has definitely needed him.  Fortunately, Trammell has done somewhat decently in his place.  But given that Jarred made his debut last year and had a chance to work on things this offseason, his slow start is concerning.

Abraham Toro: F
Just about every Mariners fan is done with Toro at this point, and I'll be shocked if something doesn't happen to him before the All-Star break (unless he miraculously catches fire).  He's provided some late-inning pop, and yes, if it wasn't for him, we lose that game to the Red Sox where he tied it up with 2 outs.  But so often we have asked him to come through and been let down.  I think Scott's getting tired of Toro's inability to come through.

Dylan Moore: C+
Dylan has been about what we expected.  We did not expect to see him start so much in the outfield, but injuries and Kelenic's struggles have necessitated it.  He's been adequate.  He did have a walk-off hit against the Red Sox.  And his defense and base running has been above average.  

Taylor Trammell: C
Taylor's done well in his short stint, but hasn't really quite broken through yet.  He has played solid D.  It's unfortunate that Servais feels the need to pinch-hit Moore or Toro for him every time he's scheduled to face a lefty.  How's a young left-handed hitter supposed to get better if he is never allowed to face lefties?

Sam Haggerty: C-
Not much to say about Sam, and he's really just a body to have on the Major League roster while we wait for guys to heal up.  He's been good defensively, but his bat leaves a lot to be desired.

Pitchers

Robbie Ray: C-
Given his expectations, we were expecting more from Robbie Ray.  He's given the Mariners length, pitching the most innings this far.  But he's also allowed a lot of home runs, 14, which is 3rd most in the AL.  His last start where he went 7 scoreless is promising after he developed a 2-seam fastball and used that effectively.  

Logan Gilbert: A
Logan has taken a big step forward in year 2.  Imagine if Kelenic, who was called up last year at the same time as Gilbert, looked as good as Gilbert does now.  Anyway, Logan has been mostly dominant, winning AL pitcher of the month for April, and for good reason.  His ERA was under 1 for that month!  

Marco Gonzales: B-
Marco's been fairly inconsistent, but when he's on, he's on.  His maturity and poise have shown.  If he can locate his change-up and get calls from the umpire, he's very hard to hit off of.  

Chris Flexen: C+
If there was ever a guy who was 2-8 who was actually pitching well, it's Flexen.  Flexen has gotten some awful run support, forcing him to leave games barely behind or tied, despite many quality starts. 

Matt Brash: D+
Is it fair to count Brash?  Eh, I'd say so.  He started off fairly well, but then hitters started to figure him out while at the same time he was losing a bit of control.  He also failed to reach 6 innings pitched in each of his 5 starts, something that cannot be said for any other pitcher to start a game this year.

George Kirby: B-
George sure had a nice debut, but unfortunately, it did take him a little while to get his first Major League win.  He definitely looks better than Brash, and hopefully, it won't take him that long to get win #2.

Paul Sewald: C+
I've gone from trusting Paul each time out to waiting with baited breath each time he pitches.  I think Servais shouldn't use him in high-leverage situations for a while, not until he gets his control back.  Seawald has definitely cost us a couple games at least.

Penn Murfee: A
I remember first seeing Penn, first thinking he had a weird name, then thinking, "Well here's a guy that will probably be sent back to Tacoma pretty soon."  Boy, was I wrong.  He has been magnificent, although his most recent outing against the Twins was not pretty.

Diego Castillo: B-
It's certainly been a tale of two seasons for Castillo.  He was looking so bad at one point that I was surprised he wasn't DFA'ed.  But he righted his ship and is now the most dominant arm in the pen.  

Andres Munoz: C
The velocity has been nice, but the control and the amount of hits off of Munoz leave a lot to be desired.  He's still young, so I can't be too harsh, but he's certainly got potential to be a dominant arm in the pen.

Matt Festa: C
Like Castillo, Festa had his struggles early on, but he has quietly become one of the more reliable arms in the pen.  

Erik Swanson: B+
When you have gone 2+ months into a season and you can't think of a time when a reliever has blown a game, you know he's doing at least somewhat well.  Swanson has been a surprising bright spot in the pen.  Shame we lost him for a bit to injury, but fortunately, he's back now.

Sergio Romo: C-
Romo has been wildly inconsistent, with at times looking like his old self and at other times looking like the old guy that no one wanted.  

Drew Steckenrider/Anthony Misiewicz/Ryan Borucki/Roenis Elias/Anyone else: D
I didn't think it was fair to count each of these guys as individual grades, as none of them have been with the big league club all season.  The rest of the bullpen here has been mostly disappointing. 

So with all those grades, what is the team's GPA?  Well I did the math, and the GPA is...

C+.  Well, if the team has a losing record, why do they have an above average grade?  Remember, this is based on expectations for each player, so players like Julio, Penn Murfee, and Erik Swanson have higher grades than if I were to grade their seasons not considering expectations.  I think this is about right, and if I were to wholly grade everyone without taking expectations into consideration, I'd say their grades drop one spot on average (so a B to a B-, for example).  That would mean the team GPA is a C, which makes sense.  Were the Mariners expected to run away with the division?  No.  But some bad luck and injuries have really hurt them, because otherwise this team has a winning record and is in the hunt for a wild card spot.  

I might grade these guys around the end of the season.  Hopefully, we'll have a GPA a bit higher next time.

Resetting my Expectations for the Seattle Mariners

 Boy, I've talked about the Mariners a lot on here, haven't I?  Just do a search for "Mariners" on this blog, and you'll see what I'm talking about.  I care a lot about them; they're one of my top two favorite sports teams.  I've followed them passionately for almost 25 years, and boy has my loyalty been tested.  The 2022 season is about to begin and there's something this team has that they haven't had too often the last 20 years: Expectations.  This team is expected to improve, succeed, and finally end that now 21-year postseason drought.  But I've learned from past experiences to not get my hopes up too high with the Mariners, because I always seem to be let down.

Honestly, I'm torn.  Part of me wants to be super excited, get behind this team, and stay as optimistic as I can.  However, the other part of me knows if I get too excited and optimistic that I will be let down again, and to be let down after being that optimistic is just heartbreaking.  

One thing that makes me not want to be optimistic is the fact that the Mariners outperformed last season.  They relied upon winning a lot of close games, and when they lost, they lost bad.  They ended up with a -51 run differential, meaning they should have won closer to 76 games than the 90 they ended up with.  I fully expect that run differential to improve, but that doesn't mean their win total will.  Many times in sports, teams regress the year following a season they were "lucky".  It happens in the NFL and it happens in Major League Baseball.  

We will learn a lot from this season.  We will learn if this team will continue to be on the rise or if they take a step back.  We'll learn about Jarred Kelenic, and if he is going to make something of himself or not.  We'll get to see Julio Rodriguez and see what he can do.  If anything, I'm just excited to see new faces and see what this team can do with expectations.  

I'll likely write another blog on the Mariners around the mid-way point of the season, giving my thoughts on the team.  I hope to be writing about the amazing start the Mariners have, how they're leading the AL West, and start envisioning a playoff berth for the first time in 21 years.  Should be fun!

2022 MLB Predictions

 I'm not going to lie, there was a part of me that thought the 2022 MLB season might not happen.  The lockout seemed to go on forever, but fortunately the two sides came together and reached an agreement.  

I'm going to quickly predict the order of each division, knowing in all likelihood I will be wrong about most.  But hey, it's still fun to do.  But I'm not going to pick Wins and Losses like I've done in the past, because all that matters is the order and who makes the playoffs.  Wild card teams will have an * by their name.

NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Miami Marlins
Comment: No wild card teams here as this remains the weakest division in the NL.  

NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals*
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Cincinnati Reds
Comment: The poor Reds are clearly selling farm and rebuilding.

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants*
3. San Diego Padres*
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
Comment: It's an even year, so the Giants will have some success.

AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. New York Yankees*
3. Toronto Blue Jays*
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
Comment: This is going to be a crazy division, any of the top 4 could win the division,

AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Cleveland Guardians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals
Comment: This division isn't ripe with talent but I could see the non-division winners making a run at the wild card, at the very least.

AL West
1. Houston Astros
2. Seattle Mariners*
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Texas Rangers
5. Oakland Athletics
Comment: This should be a fun division, as any team could surprise.  I feel hesitant putting the Athletics so low, because when I underestimate them, they surprise.  They did trade away Chapman and Olson, however.

Yep, that's right, I have my Seattle Mariners ending their 21 year postseason drought!  Thanks to the expanded playoffs, although I don't think they'd be the 6 seed in the AL.  Maybe 5.  Let's go through the playoffs:

NL Wild Card
(6) Padres vs. (3) Brewers: Padres win
(5) Cardinals vs. (4) Giants: Giants win

AL Wild Card
(6) Blue Jays vs. (3) White Sox: Blue Jays win
(5) Mariners vs. (4) Yankees: Mariners win

NL Divisional
(6) Padres vs. (2) Braves: Braves win
(4) Giants vs. (1) Dodgers: Dodgers win

AL Divisional
(6) Blue Jays vs. (2) Rays: Rays win
(5) Mariners vs. (1) Astros: Mariners win

League Championship Series
(2) Braves vs. (1) Dodgers: Dodgers win
(5) Mariners vs. (2) Rays: Rays win

World Series: Dodgers in 5

Well, my Mariners made the playoffs and made it to the league championship series!  Where yet again, they were denied their first ever trip to the World Series.  Oh well.  Here's who I predict will lead certain categories for the Mariners:

Average: Adam Frazier
Home Runs: Mitch Haniger
RBI: Mitch Haniger
Stolen Bases: JP Crawford
Wins: Marco Gonzales
Strikeouts: Robbie Ray
ERA: Robbie Ray
Saves: Paul Sewald
All-Stars: Jessie Winker, Mitch Haniger, Robbie Ray

My late MLB and Mariners prediction post

It's April 4, we're three games (plus) into the MLB regular season, and I did not do any post about the upcoming season.  Eh, better late than never, right?  Anyway, I'll still make some predictions for the MLB season.  Similarly to how I do my NFL predictions, I'll talk about each division instead of each team.  Afterwards, I'll talk about the Mariners and make some predictions.  Here we go!

* = Wild Card

NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Washington Nationals*
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets

The NL East has got some good teams and it was hard to decide what order to put them.  I think the Braves have some of the best players in Albies, Acuna, and Freeman, plus a pretty good pitching staff.  The Nationals are only a year removed from winning it all and still boast some great players, most notably Juan Soto.  The Phillies are about an average team for me.  The Marlins are slowly getting better from the rebuild.  The Mets... well... are the Mets.  They have Pete Alonso, but I don't think they have many other notable players.

NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates

This might be the division I pay the least attention to.  I had a tough time blindly trying go figure out the order.  I just have a gut feeling the Brewers are about to have a magical season.  The Cardinals just got Nolan Arenado, so they should be improved.  The Cubs still have some decent players, but aren't on the upswing.  The Reds aren't awful, but there's just always too much competition in the NL Central for them.  The Pirates, I know, are rebuilding and have gotten rid of a lot of great players in recent years, most notably Andrew McCutcheon and Garritt Cole.  

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres*
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

The NL West remains a very tough division.  The Dodgers are the most stacked team in all of baseball, and now boast a pitching staff that can compete with anyone's.  The Padres are young and up and coming and will give the Dodgers fits.  The Giants will not be an easy out for most teams as they have a few good, young players plus notable vets like Crawford, Belt, and Posey.  The D-Backs will be decent, but not great.  The Rockies only real good player is Nolan Arenado, who may want out of town, despite signing a contract extension.  

AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays*
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

The Yankees remain a top team and are the favorites to win the division.  The Blue Jays signed George Springer and have a lot of really good young players like Guerrero and Biggio.  The Red Sox are usually at least somewhat competitive.  The Rays and Orioles won't be awful, but won't be that good, either.

AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers

The White Sox are an up and coming team and I think they take a big jump this season.  The Twinkies remain a solid team, but not solid enough to make the playoffs.  The Indians still have some good pieces, but have also lost a few, most notably Trevor Bauer.  The Royals remain below average, and the Tigers are still rebuilding.

AL West
1. Houston Astros
2. Oakland Athletics*
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Texas Rangers

I hate to say it, but the Astros are probably winning the division again.  They lost Springer, but still have a lot of good players.  Let's just hope fans boo and ridicule them.  The A's are always pesky and competitive.  As for my Mariners, I think they surprise people and remain competitive.  But they fall short of the playoffs for the 20th straight season.  The Angels aren't awful, but the Rangers kind of are.


I haven't said yet, but I believe they're going back to the playoff format they had in 2019 (not using the 2020 expanded playoffs), which would be a one-game playoff for the wild card spot.  Anyway, I'll sim the playoffs below real quick.

NL Wild Card: Padres over Nationals
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays over Athletics

NL Divisional Round
Dodgers over Padres in 5 games
Braves over Brewers in 4 games

AL Divisional Round
Yankees over Blue Jays in 4 games
White Sox over Astros in 5 games

NL Championship Series
Dodgers over Braves in 6 games

AL Championship Series
Yankees over White Sox in 5 games

World Series
Dodgers over Yankees in 7 games

The Dodgers repeat as champions, and they beat the Yankees at their own game of spending a lot to assemble a super team.  

Now, onto the Mariners.  I think they'll win somewhere between 75-85 games, with some ups and downs along the way.  They could maybe even break the .500 mark for the first time since 2018.  

I'm just going to predict who I think will lead the team in each category.  Some may surprise you.

Batting average: Ty France
Home Runs: Kyle Lewis
RBI's: Kyle Seager
Stolen Bases: Dylan Moore
Hits: Ty France
Wins: Marco Gonzales
ERA: Marco Gonzales
Saves: Rafael Montero
K's: Yusei Kikuchi

I'm going to tune into Mariners games all summer long to check on the progress of some players.  I'm looking forward to the debuts of some of the youngsters, such as Kelenic and Gilbert, hopefully.  I really do think this team could remain competitive and perhaps in the race going into middle to late September.  Could make for an interesting summer.  Let's hope it is!