Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts

Monday, December 4, 2023

Mariners Off-Season Outlook after Two Payroll-Shedding Trades

Two big trades have been made so far this off-season for the Mariners; two trades that their fans have ridiculed the front office for making.  First was Eugenio Suarez to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a backup catcher and a reliever.  Then Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, and Evan White were sent to the Atlanta Braves for a AAAA-type pitcher (good in minors, bad in majors) and a solid relief pitching prospect.  Both moves have been seen as ways of shedding payroll.  Why would they do this?  Let me explain.

First off, there is no salary cap in MLB like there is in the NFL.  Owners are free to let their GMs spend as much as they want.  They'll just have to foot the bill for any salaries/bonuses they hand out.  It seems in the Mariners case that ownership has restricted the front office of Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander, who definitely would like to spend on a few big bats, but may have needed to shed some payroll first in order to be under a certain budget.  This isn't what fans of a team want to hear.  You should want your owner to allow your GM to spend as much as they need to in order to field the best team possible.  Limiting them only limits their chances of building a successful team.

But let's look at the good.  We haven't lost a ton.  Eugenio Suarez regressed in 2023 after a very solid 2022.  His OPS was down from .791 to .714, and his league-leading strikeout totals rose further.  He did play gold glove-caliber defense, but his offensive numbers still dropped, especially his power.  Jerry Dipoto made the comment that they wanted to be a more contact-focused offense, but my question is this: Why acquire high strikeout guys in the first place?  Jerry chose to trade for Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, known high-strikeout guys.  Perhaps his focus has changed, but that's not altogether encouraging.  

And of the three players we sent to the Braves, none were really huge impact players.  Yes, Kelenic still has a bit of potential, but he had two and a half seasons to realize it with us and just couldn't.  He had one hot stretch in early 2023, but that's it.  He's been largely a bust offensively.  He also strikes out a lot, like Suarez.  Marco was a back-of-the-rotation starter, who was hurt a huge chunk of 2023.  He was the longest-tenured Mariner, but he had reached his ceiling, and his ceiling quite frankly wasn't good enough for our rotation anymore.  And Evan White battled injuries and offensive inconsistency and lost his job to Ty France.  He wasn't going to regain his spot.  

So, we shed some dead weight, honestly.  Suarez and Hernandez (who left in Free Agency) were occasional good middle-of-the-order hitters, but just struck out too much.  That led to too many times where all we needed was a ball put in play and they struck out.  Marco was a lot of money for little return, and Evan White and Kelenic could never fully figure out hitting with us.  

But now let's look at the bad.  There are a ton of holes on this team.  Both corner outfield spots, DH, third base, and second base all need to be addressed.  There's also the fact we could use another starter with Robbie Ray hurt (*cough cough* Blake Snell! *cough*).  We should not be going into 2024 with our middle-of-the-lineup players being France and Raleigh.  This team, as it stands now, would certainly regress in 2024 if no major additions were made.  

So we can only hope and pray as Mariners fans that Jerry and Justin have a plan.  I'm hoping that they were given the luxury of increasing payroll at least a bit.  Perhaps they did the math and realized the guys they wanted to sign or extend after a trade would require more financial room than they already had.  But just because they have their eyes on a few players, doesn't mean they'll get them.  I worry they may have made this room unnecessarily, and they might strike out on acquiring some big names.  This off-season, simply saying "We tried" is not good enough.  

Our dream, of course, is to see big name after big name acquired by the Mariners.  We want to see the social media posts of "Welcome to Seattle, ____!" for a lot of household names.  We do not want to see it for players along the likes of Tommy LaStella, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock.  Of course, not every good player is available in free agency, and some will require a trade to acquire.  I just hope we don't mortgage our future in the hopes of getting back to the post-season.  That was attempted and failed at too many times from 2002-2021.  

The rest of this off-season will be hugely telling for this team and its future.  Jerry and Justin have their work cut out for them.  I think this is the single most important off-season of their Mariners' careers because a failure this off-season will likely eventually cost them their jobs.  I'm sure they're aware of the magnitude of this off-season.  Simply put, an abysmal showing this off-season, and they should not be surprised if ticket and merch sales drop.  At that point, none of us should spend any extra money on this team.  But a good showing will bring this fanbase back around and instill hope for 2024.


Monday, August 1, 2022

Thoughts on Castillo Trade, M's Future

Just a few days ago, I warned the Mariners and Jerry Dipoto not to give up too much for a player like Juan Soto.  Unfortunately, they gave up a lot, and not even for Juan Soto.  They sent four prospects (3 of the top 5 in the Mariners' system) to the Cincinnati Reds for Luis Castillo, an All-Star pitcher.  He's a borderline top 10 starter in the game and still should have plenty of productive years left.  He is only signed through 2023, so the Mariners may only get a season and a half out of him.  Was this an overpay?  It will all depend on how things shake out.

I understand that you have to give up a lot to get star players.  But man, losing 3 of your top 5 prospects does hurt.  The winner of this trade will be determined by how much Castillo can help the Mariners toward a playoff birth and run and how well those prospects do with the Reds.  

I get it.  The Mariners are desperate for a playoff berth.  I am desperate for that, too.  But if the Mariners make the playoffs once or twice, each followed by early playoff exits, and another drought ensues, was it worth it?  I'd say it hardly was.  However, Castillo will solidify a very good rotation even further for at least the next year and a half, and as the saying goes, you can never have too much good pitching.

The good thing is that 99.9% of prospects are not a sure thing.  We weren't even sure Julio Rodriguez was a sure thing going into this season.  Jarred Kelenic was a highly rated prospect and has still not panned out, and he might never.  At this point, I wish Jerry Dipoto had traded him earlier while his value was still high.  That's what he did with our prospects he sent for Castillo.  He sent them away while their value was still high.  

Obviously, if you trade a prospect that becomes a perennial All-Star or Hall of Famer and don't get the value in return, it becomes an awful trade and one of the worst in franchise history.  But that's the risk you take with trades in MLB.  Every team in the majors has made a huge trade that they regret.  

As Mariner fans, we can only hope Castillo leads us to the playoffs, and we go on a playoff run, and the prospects we sent away only have marginally successful careers at best.  If we aren't able to end the playoff drought and the prospects have great careers with the Reds helping them get to the playoffs, that's going to be too much for us Mariner fans to handle.  We've seen this happen too many times before.  

I hope to look back on this trade and not feel remorse like I do so many other trades in Mariner history.  I often wonder what Mariners' history would've been like if we had held on to the likes of Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe, David Ortiz, and Adam Jones.  

Before I fail to mention, the first full game played after the announcement of this trade, Julio Rodriguez went down with a hand injury and went on the 10-day IL the day after.  The need for hitting became even more apparent.  But Jerry Dipoto decided to go with pitching.  I'm not wholely against that idea because pitching often wins in the playoffs, but if the bats go quiet due to a lack of depth and injuries, that's going to really hurt the M's chances of even making the playoffs.  

We will know in 2 months whether this trade is starting to be worth it or it's looking like another dud trade to add to the list in Mariners history.  Let's hope for the former.

Friday, July 29, 2022

The Mariners (and Jerry Dipoto) must be cautious, mostly with regards to Soto

 The trade deadline rapidly approaches for the 2022 MLB season, and as always happens, players' names circulate among the rumor mill.  The Seattle Mariners, in contention after their 14-game winning streak, will likely be looking to add a piece or two.  The biggest name on the market is one Juan Soto, an outfielder for the Washington Nationals.  He's still only 23 and rejected a gigantic contract extension, meaning he wants out of Washington (D.C.).  He's arguably one of the most valuable trade pieces ever on the market.  And the Mariners are rumored to be one of 4 teams strongly interested in him.  I say this to Mariners Team President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and the rest of the Mariners front office: Do not sell the farm for Soto.  He is one player.  What if something happens to him?  

The Mariners must be cautious.  We have built a strong core, one that is as strong as we have seen in the past twenty years.  To sell a huge chunk of it for one player is risky at best and foolish at worst.  What if a health condition is discovered in Juan Soto a year or two from now?  With the news of Mike Trout, it makes you want to be cautious about what you give up for certain stars.  Or what if he decides he doesn't like Seattle?  That would completely derail this rebuild, one that has taken eight years so far.  

Not to mention, the Mariners already have a Dominican young star in Julio Rodriguez.  They also have a plethora of other outfielders, just waiting for a pair to be healthy and playing well simultaneously.  Those outfielders include Jesse Winker, Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic, and Mitch Haniger.  Surely 2 of those could pan out and be very capable players.  Yes, trading for Soto would acquire someone we wouldn't even have to worry about.  But is ownership really willing to pay both Julio and Soto contracts that would total close to a billion dollars?  

The best players in Mariners history almost all come from the draft or they were signed as amateur free agents.  Griffey, A-Rod, and Seager were all drafted.  Felix and Julio were signed as amateur free agents.  Ichiro was brought from Japan.  The one exception being Randy Johnson, but he was not highly touted when the Mariners acquired him from Montreal.  My point is, trades or even free-agent acquisitions hardly have been huge successes in this team's history, especially when acquiring big name stars.  

If the Mariners could somehow get Soto for a handful of mid-range prospects, and maybe Kelenic or Lewis, I'd say go for it. But the Nationals apparently want a team's top 3 or 4 prospects.  Jerry Dipoto and the M's simply cannot afford to blow this up for one player.  Are all the top prospects the Mariners would trade for Soto going to live up to their billing?  Maybe not.  But it's an almost certainty that most of them will be big contributors in a few years.  

I just hope Dipoto is cautious.  I'd rather miss the playoffs barely again this year and go into next year stronger and hungrier than trade for Soto and have a quick playoff exit.  I want to end the playoff drought just as much as any Mariners fan, but not at the cost of our future.  

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Organized Thoughts about the Russell Wilson Trade

I'm still in shock from the trade that was announced earlier today: Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos.  It seems like today's a dream that I need to wake up from.  I thought of all the ways I could have put my thoughts into words, and I decided the best way would be to ask myself (and answer) questions regarding this trade and the impact it will have on the future.

Hey there, future Brian here (Nov. 2023).  I thought I'd comment on my takes about this trade now that we've seen 1.5 seasons out of Russ and seen the Seahawks without him.

Who do you think will win this trade in the long run?

Honestly, the Broncos.  Usually, the team that acquires the star player wins the trade.  The times that they don't win the trade are because the star player completely flops on his new team or has off the field issues.  That will not happen with Russell Wilson.  

And given the Seahawks track record for drafting, it's unlikely they'll draft anyone in the next few years that has near the impact that Russ had in Seattle.  And it's unlikely any of the players the Seahawks acquired (Lock, Fant, Harris) will improve their game enough to give the Seahawks an edge.

Yikes!  Well Russ for the most part has "flopped".  And the Seahawks drafting has gotten a lot better in the last couple of years.  We got Charles Cross, Boye Mafe, and Devon Witherspoon out of the draft from those draft picks, among others.  I think the Hawks win this trade now.

How well do you think Russell will do in Denver?

It's hard to say.  I've only ever seen Russell in Seattle.  I don't think he's going to have a crazy amount of success, especially given the division and conference he will play in.  I see him having one, maybe two seasons where he and the Broncos make a legitimate run at a Super Bowl.  But seeing as he will likely command a new contract in a year or two, I don't see the Broncos being able to keep a bunch of talent around him (the problem the Seahawks would have ended up facing).

First off, Russ re-signed with the Broncos before even playing a snap.  Anyway, it's getting harder to see a Super Bowl run from him and the Broncos, especially considering their stiff competition in the AFC.  

What will the Seahawks do at quarterback?

The Seahawks did acquire Drew Lock from the Broncos, but he has been lackluster so far.  He will be given a shot in training camp, but the Hawks will very likely bring another (or two) quarterback in to compete with him.  The Hawks do now have the 9th overall pick, and they could take Kenny Pickett with that selection, or they could wait until next year's draft, when the QB class is supposed to be even better.  

I think the Hawks will acquire a veteran free agent to compete with Lock and try to rely upon the running game in 2022.  

I'm laughing at the idea of the Hawks taking Kenny Pickett with the 9th overall pick last year.  So glad we didn't.  I didn't even mention Geno Smith, who I assumed was leaving and had not re-signed at that point yet.  YIKES again.

Are the players the Seahawks got any good?

Kind of.  As I mentioned, Drew Lock has been lackluster, but was a first round pick who could benefit from a change of scenery.  He's a solid backup at the very least.

Noah Fant is an above average tight end who does a bit of everything pretty well.  He is still young and could develop into one of the better tight ends in the NFC.

Shelby Harris isn't young for an NFL player (30), but he's a borderline pro-bowl defensive lineman who will instantly become a starter and could start for a few seasons.

They've been solid.  Lock hasn't really had much opportunity, but Fant has done well with limited targets.  I wish we'd target him more.  Harris only played one year for us.  

Why did the Hawks trade Wilson?

Was Russ unhappy?  Not really.  But he wasn't the happiest he could be.  Slowly over the past 7-8 years, the Hawks have regressed, particularly on defense and the offensive line.  Russ knew if he had more talent around him, he'd have multiple Super Bowls instead of just the one.  The Hawks front office failed to surround him with even an average offensive line in the last 5-7 seasons and the defense has regressed every year in the past five.  

But the reason the Hawks traded Wilson largely comes down to money.  He had two more years left on his contract, and the rate for a top-flight quarterback was getting extremely steep.  We saw Aaron Rodgers just re-sign with the Packers for $50 million a year.  Russell would have commanded just as much if not more.  I'm not sure if the Hawks currently have the room for that, but they certainly don't have room to keep all of their stars AND Russ.  

Unfortunately, the NFL is a business.  The Hawks, realizing that they were sinking millions into Wilson and not getting championships, decided to cut their losses.  Wilson, essentially, was a sunk cost.  He was a part of a business that was requiring too much money, and the Seahawks decided to trade or "sell" their asset and start over.  I understand the move from a business perspective, but the problem I also see is that Wilson is more than an "asset".  12s everywhere had emotional ties to him, and trading him is more than selling an asset.

I also want to say that I bet Pete, John, Shane, and the rest probably saw the start of Russ regressing.  I think they figured he would not be able to retain his level of play into his mid to late 30's.  They really traded him at the perfect time, because I bet his 2022 season in Seattle, had he not been traded, would not have gone well.

Do the Hawks even have a chance of winning in the near future?

I mean, any team theoretically does.  But the Hawks chances did get slimmer.  The offseason is still very young, and we will have to wait and see what Pete and John do the rest of this offseason, particularly at the quarterback spot.  If they can get a quick fix at the quarterback position, there's hope.  

I'm leaning towards the Hawks not trying too hard to win in 2022 (also known as "tanking") and try to get a high draft pick in 2023 to use on a quarterback.  If Schneider wheels and deals effectively enough, the Hawks could go through a re-build in just a couple years.  They have a lot of trade-able assets that they could get even more draft capital from.  

YIKES again.  Actually, our chances got better in 2022 and we made the playoffs.  We might make it again in 2023.  I keep thinking the Hawks are going to draft a quarterback, when they really don't need to.  Even if Geno gets hurt or struggles, we have Lock, who is at least capable.

What will happen to Pete Carroll?  Is he going to stick it out much longer?

Hard to say as I can't read his mind, but given that he's the oldest coach in the league, he has to be thinking of retirement as a possibility after every season.  He does have the most youthful energy of any coach in their 60s or older, to say the least.

Pete had to have been in on the discussions with Schneider on the trade of Wilson.  And he's likely already thought of how trading Wilson affects his future.  

Don't forget that 2021 was the hardest of Carroll's Seahawks career, and it might depend on how 2022 goes to see if he will even coach one more season after that.  

Pete obviously knew he had a good chunk of years left.  He's found the fountain of youth, at least concerning his energy.  I think he'll coach until he feels he can't summon the energy anymore, which could be into his mid-70s if not late 70s.  

How can John Schneider save his reputation now?  Is there any way his tenure with the Hawks has a happy ending?

If Schneider is in this for the long run, there's definitely a chance.  And if he's in it for the long run, he will likely be tasked with finding Carroll's successor and using this draft capital he just acquired effectively.  

If he can never recover and build the Seahawks into a perennial playoff team like they were with Wilson, he will not have a happy ending.  He would then likely leave the team with many Hawks fans holding resentment towards him stemming back to this trade.  

We can't also forget the Jimmy Graham and Jamal Adams trades, two trades he made that at this point we can safely call failures.  He risked draft capital for star players, and it hurt the Hawks. 

Now he's done the opposite, trading a star player for draft capital.  If he can use that draft capital successfully, that will help the Hawks immensely in the coming years and he could save face and leave with his head held high.  It's all on him.

I think I can say the Wilson trade makes up for the lackluster trades of the past like Harvin, Graham, and Adams.  Schneider's reputation is fine, and whenever he leaves, he'll likely leave having been the most successful front office executive in team history.

What about the rest of the players on the Hawks?  One, are they at risk of being traded, and two, are their morales hurt after this trade?

To answer the first question, it depends on if the Hawks are fully rebuilding or not.  If they are, then one could argue any of them are at risk of being traded.  If Russ can be traded, anyone can.  

To answer the second question, they likely will feel a sting from this, but if Schneider brings in a respectable leader at the quarterback position, morale may not take too big of a hit.  But the ones that have been with Russ the longest (Bobby, Tyler) will certainly not feel the same anymore.

Turns out, Geno's leadership abilities are more than enough.  No one else was really at risk of being traded since they weren't tanking.  

How will we look back on this trade?

It will depend on the outcome for the two teams in the coming years.  I'll go through all four scenarios:

If the Broncos and Hawks both find success in the coming years, it'll be a win-win.  Schneider and the Broncos will both be heralded for the trade, as it will have seemed that Russell Wilson just needed a fresh start, and the Hawks were handicapped by his immense salary.

If the Broncos have success but the Hawks do not, the Broncos will be heavily lauded for the move, and Schneider and the Hawks will be ridiculed.  Everyone will realize that trading star quarterbacks is almost never a wise move, and the Hawks were foolish to do so, even if it saved them money.  Schneider will go down in Seahawks infamy.

If the Seahawks have success but the Broncos do not, Schneider will be considered a genius.  He would have gotten out of an even larger contract with Wilson and would have managed to rebuild the Hawks once again.  Meanwhile, Russ will be looked at the guy that won a Super Bowl while having the Legion of Boom, but couldn't at any point after, definitely lowering his legend status.  

If neither team finds success, the trade will be looked it as a push.  The Broncos will be thought of poorly for mortgaging their future for a QB that couldn't even get back to the NFC championship game after 2014-15, and the Hawks will look bad as well for having traded their star quarterback for a bunch of okay players and draft capital.  

Ultimately, this trade is going to take time.  Time to figure out who won the trade, but first off, time to digest and comprehend what has really happened: that Russell Wilson is no longer a Seahawk.

I think right now the option of the Seahawks having success but the Broncos not is the option we have in reality.  Russ is starting to maybe look like a QB that won a Super Bowl with a legendary defense, but that's it.  Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer also did that.  

Monday, July 27, 2020

My Thoughts on the Jamal Adams Trade

The Seahawks recently acquired safety Jamal Adams from the Jets in exchange for two first round picks, a third round pick, and Bradley McDougald.  I have very mixed thoughts on this trade, with my gut telling me we will regret this trade down the line.  I hate that the Hawks basically mortgaged their future just to upgrade at a position, and a position that's not even one of the most important, like quarterback, offensive line, or pass rusher.  

Most consider Jamal Adams the best safety in the NFL.  But you know how often there is a new best player at a position?  About every 2 or 3 years on average.  Some safeties, I will say, have long and lengthy careers that lead them to the Hall of Fame.  Guys like Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu played well into their 30s.  The only way this trade works in the Hawks favor is if Jamal Adams has a career like those guys, and leads the Hawks to at least one Super Bowl.  I wouldn't say the odds of that happening are high.

There is a huge underlying problem with the Hawks which has caused this team to be top-heavy in talent and have a lot of holes on its roster.  John Schneider, Pete Carroll, and the rest of the Seahawks management and scouts can no longer draft well.  They can't.  They have drafted just two players who made the Pro Bowl with the Hawks since 2013, and both (Lockett and Dickson) made it for special teams.  Guys like Germain Ifedi, Malik McDowell, and Ethan Pocic (all first or second round picks) did not pan out.  And there are a ton of doubts with Rashaad Penny and LJ Collier.  

It's because of this lack of ability to find talent in the draft which has forced the Hawks to spend money; to keep their star QB, middle linebacker, and wide receiver.  It's forced them to make these kinds of trades that don't help the team in the long run.  Remember the Percy Harvin trade?  The Hawks did not win a Super Bowl because of that, they won in spite of that.  The Jimmy Graham trade was the start of the dismantling of the offensive line, as Max Unger was traded away.  And then Jadeveon Clowney was acquired for a third round pick (and a couple players), and it's looking like may only get one (injury-plagued) season out of him.  

This trade for Jamal Adams is another transaction in a series of moves that reek of desperation.  The Hawks are still criticized for having one of the worst (if not the worst) combinations of offensive and defensive lines in the NFL.  Pete and John hope that the stellar play of their QB, receivers, running backs, linebackers, and secondary can make up for the struggles the lines will undoubtedly have.  But as the saying goes, "the game is won in the trenches".  And without competent line play, we may just get a lot more of the same thing we've seen the last five years: 9-10 win teams that rely on Russell Wilson magic too much and get knocked out of the playoffs early.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Current Seattle Mariners Issues, Part 2


Last year, I did a blog on issues and questions surrounding the team (see it at http://briguy17-briguy17.blogspot.com/2012/06/current-seattle-mariner-issues.html).  While it may be a bit premature to do one this year, I still feel there are already a ton of questions and issues surrounding this year's team.  Here they are:

Should Wedge be fired?
If the Mariners regress and have fewer wins than last year, then yes.  This team has more talent and experience than last year's team, and if they aren't able to improve, it comes down to coaching.  The only way these guys will get going is if Wedge is able to light a fire under them and keep them motivated and confident.  Wedge seems like a good coach for a team that's already good, but not a good coach for a team trying to improve.  

What if guys like Ackley, Smoak, and Montero don't perform this year?  What should we do with them?
Each of those three players was highly regarded when we acquired them and we gave up a lot to get each.  In Ackley, we used our 2nd overall pick to get him.  The last time the Mariners drafted that high they got Alex Rodriguez.  In Smoak we traded Cliff Lee, and in Montero we traded Michael Pineda who made the All-Star team in his first year as a starter. 

If Ackley struggles (bad enough), I expect him to be sent down to work on his mechanics.  The team won't give up on their 2nd overall pick so easily.  If he can't improve anywhere by the end of the season, I would expect a trade of some sort in the offseason. 

If Smoak struggles, he could be traded before the trade deadline this season.  He could also be benched and only given spot duty for the rest of the season (put Morales at first and Montero at DH).  If he can't improve, he won't be given a shot next season.  He's had his chances.

If Montero struggles, I look for them to move him back to DH so he can focus solely on hitting.  Which means if Montero struggles it could mean the end for Smoak.  If Montero still struggles at DH the team could demote him or trade him in the offseason. 

It would be such a shame to have to do any of those things.  It's also such a shame that none of them have panned out yet.  Hopefully at least one will. 

When should the Mariners call up Mike Zunino?
When he's ready.  He has to understand the game of baseball, get some experience.  It also depends on how Montero and Smoak do in the bigs.  If they struggle and Zunino does really well at Tacoma, we'll have no choice but to promote him.  If come May, those things are true, then promote him.  Don't wait until August. 

Which of the "Big Three" if any, will appear in the majors this year?
Maybe not any.  While they were having success for a while, the pitching trio of Paxton, Walker, and Hultzen have sort of struggled recently.  There's still plenty of time to improve, but I could see Hultzen making his big-league debut with the September call-ups.  Paxton and Walker might take more time.

Is this Jack Zduriencik's last chance?
It just might well be.  Of course, if the team shows improvement, he will remain as GM.  But if the Mariners regress and possibly (heaven forbid) finish behind the Astros, he's probably gone.  If the M's do poorly enough, both he and Wedgie will be shown the door, and the team will start over... AGAIN.

Anyone going to be trade bait this season?
Smoak could be packaged in a deal if he struggles.  If the team struggles and decides to sell, then Brendan Ryan could go to a contender looking for a shortstop.   Gutierrez could be gone if the team decides they can't put up with his injuries anymore.  But the most likely to be traded is Brendan. 

Mariners All-Star(s)?
Obviously Felix, if he pitches like his usual self.   Morse could be a selection if he continues raking like he has.  Stephen Pryor has had a great start and could make it if he is able to continue his dominance into June.  Other than that, anyone else would be a bit of a surprise.

Ok, so how will they do this season?
Too soon to tell.  As I write this, they are 6-8.  Not horrible, because one more win and the team is at .500.  The team has suffered early injuries to Guti, Morse, Saunders AND Pryor, so if they can get healthy and stay healthy, we should be in good shape.  A tough month of May looms, but if they can stay near .500 throughout May, they have a shot... at improvement.  Go Mariners.