Monday, March 17, 2014

2014 MLB and Mariner Predictions

The 2014 Major League Baseball season is almost upon us, and it's time for me to make my annual predictions.  I will of course predict how the Mariners will do this year, but I won't go player by player like other seasons.  Instead, I'll predict how they will do each month, with a final record at the end. 

2014 Standings, predicted:
* = Wild Card

NL East
Washington Nationals 102-60
Atlanta Braves* 99-63
Philadelphia Phillies 82-80
New York Mets 79-83
Miami Marlins 65-97
Summary: Nationals and Braves will fight for the division and it will more than likely go down to the final week of baseball.  Phillies and Mets should be decent enough to avoid 90 losses, while the Marlins won't be so fortunate. 

NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates 92-70
Cincinnati Reds 85-77
St. Louis Cardinals 84-78
Milwaukee Brewers 82-82
Chicago Cubs 70-92
Summary: I definitely see this as a competitive division, not really counting the Cubs.  Any of 4 teams could win the division, but with all the competition, there might not be a wild card from this division.  I don't see the defending NL Champs (Cardinals) having that good of a season.

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 95-67
San Francisco Giants* 89-73
Arizona Diamondbacks 84-78
Colorado Rockies 72-90
San Diego Padres 63-99
Summary: Another pretty competitive division, but Dodgers have too much star power to be overthrown.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Diamondbacks have a breakout season, but I'm predicting the Giants to have a bounce back season and claim a wild card spot.  They did, after all, win championships the past two even-numbered seasons (2010 and 2012). 

AL East
Baltimore Orioles 93-69
Boston Red Sox* 92-70
New York Yankees* 90-72
Tampa Bay Rays 85-77
Toronto Blue Jays 81-81
Summary: I don't know if an entire division has been at .500 or better, but this year the AL East has a shot at it.  This is easily the best division in baseball and may result in two wild card teams from this division, and who could ask for a better wild card matchup than Yankees Red Sox?

AL Central
Cleveland Indians 91-71
Detroit Tigers 86-76
Kansas City Royals 85-75
Chicago White Sox 69-93
Minnesota Twins 67-95
Summary: I just can't see the Detroit Tigers winning the AL Central... again.  I think it's time for the Indians (or hey, maybe even the Royals) to claim the division title.  The Tigers will regret trading Prince Fielder. 

AL West
Texas Rangers 89-73
Oakland Athletics 88-74
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 81-81
Seattle Mariners 69-93
Houston Astros 60-102
Summary: The Rangers are again loaded with talent, and I think this time they win the division.  I don't think anyone in this division will approach 95 or 100 wins.  As for the M's... well, you'll just have to read below.

NL Wild Card:
Giants at Braves: Giants win
Yankees at Red Sox: Red Sox win

NL Divisional:
Pirates at Dodgers: Dodgers
Giants at Nationals: Nationals

AL Divisional:
Red Sox at Orioles: Red Sox
Rangers at Indians: Rangers

NL Championship:
Dodgers at Nationals: Dodgers

AL Championship:
Red Sox at Rangers: Red Sox

World Series:
Dodgers over Red Sox

I mainly winged it when picking the playoff winners, but I like the team the Dodgers have put together.  Dodgers will be the 2014 MLB Champs, continuing the trend of an NL West team winning it all in even-numbered seasons.

SEATTLE MARINERS PREDICTIONS

The Mariners go into the 2014 campaign with a new manager, Lloyd McLendon, and a new superstar in Robinson Cano, who they shoveled out $240 million for.  But, I think it will all be for naught.  McLendon will (and should) survive after the season, but Jack Zduriencik will not.  Here's how I predict, month by month:

March 31/April: 12-15
The season will get off to a meager start, with the M's failing to get a sweep in the first month AGAIN.  They will salvage many series by winning one of the three of four games.
May: 13-16 (After: 25-31)
Another slightly below mediocre month with ownership, management, and coaches starting to press on the players, to no avail.
June: 11-16 (After: 36-47)
I can see a losing skid with road trips to Atlanta and Tampa Bay, followed by a home series against the Yankees.  They could make up ground with a couple series against the Padres, but I don't expect much.
July: 15-10 (After: 51-57)
July will more than likely be the best month for the M's, as they play Houston, the White Sox, the Twins at home, and the Mets at home.  Leaves a bit of optimism for August, but not much.
August: 8-19 (After: 59-76)
August is just BRUTAL to the M's.  Road series at Baltimore, Philly, Detroit, and Boston, with home series vs. the Braves, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Nationals.  This month will make or break the Mariners season, and I predict break.
September: 10-17 (After: 69-93)
September is also really tough for the M's, with 18 of their final 27 games on the road.  I can't imagine a scenario where the M's come away with a winning record in August or September.

Team Leaders:
Wins - Felix Hernandez (14)
Saves - Fernando Rodney (21)
Home Runs - Robinson Cano (24)
RBI - Kyle Seager (92)
Average - Robinson Cano (.292)

I just can't see the M's having success this year.  One man (Cano) cannot turn a team around on his own.  I predict Jack Z to be fired and a new GM brought in and yet even MORE waiting.  Ugh, waiting sucks.