As A Mariner Fan, I'm Pretty Much Done

                The Mariners entered this 2015 season with such high expectations.  Some dreamed of a World Series berth, even.  Most predicted us to make the playoffs.  But the Mariners sit at 42-50, and most Mariners fans would admit this season is probably over.  Is it mathematically and logically possible the Mariners could make a run at a playoff spot?  Sure.  But this team has been fiddled and farted with so much, there is absolutely NOTHING to give us any reason to expect a turnaround.  I for one am very disappointed in this team, and it's an all too familiar feeling I get with this ball club. 
                Four years ago, I said that if the Mariners didn't make the playoffs or LOOK like they'd make the playoffs by 2015, I'd give up on them.  Well, it's 2015 and the playoffs seem like a pipe dream.  I said I'd stop following them and stop buying merchandise and stop going to games and that's exactly what I'm going to do.  I'm slowly going to stop watching their games on TV, and from this point on I will not buy any Mariner merchandise or go to any games.  I refuse to support such a poorly run organization.  It's funny--all they have to do is look across the street to the Seahawks (and Sounders) to see how to run a successful sports franchise. 
                The Mariners are a joke.  Literally.  They've been made fun of on the TV show "How I Met Your Mother", they are constantly lauded and joked about by casual sports fans in Seattle.  You ask a person, any person who knows who the Mariners are and what they think of them, and (unless they've been under a rock the past 15 years) they'll say that they suck (or some variation).  This team has such a bad image problem I'm surprised they managed to lure high-priced free agents in Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz.  Oh that's right, they just threw enough money at them, anything to get someone to be a bobblehead on Bobblehead Night. 
                The amount of things wrong with this team and the reasons they lose more often than they win are too numerous for me to name.  Lloyd and Jack need to go.  In fact, ownership needs to go (but you can't "fire" ownership, sadly).  A lot of the players (while most of them not their fault) have under-performed and need to go.  This team is such a mess not even a GM with OCD would want to take this team on.  This organization had its "fifteen minutes of fame" from 1995-2001, but outside those years this baseball franchise is a complete and udder joke, failure, abomination, and travesty.  Those words may sound harsh, but it's the truth.  In the 32 years outside of 1995-2001, the Mariners have had just 7 WINNING SEASONS, eclipsing 90 wins just TWICE. 
                So I bid my farewell to the Mariners.  I hope your ticket and merchandise sales plummet.  If you're as fed up as I am, please join me in staying away from Safeco and refusing to buy merchandise.  You do one of those two things and all you're doing is encouraging them to continue to do what they're doing and that's building a LOSER.  There is something wrong with this organization, and it's not just the players.  In fact, it's BARELY them.  It's ownership and management.  Unless ownership changes or they take the necessary steps to "reboot" this franchise, I will not be following the Mariners.  I will be more than willing to come back and support this franchise once changes are made.  But until then, Mariners, I bid thee farewell.  

Mariners 2014 Season Recap and 2015 Outlook

                The Mariners just concluded their 2014 season, and for the 13th straight season failed to make the playoffs.  However, not a lot of people picked them to make the playoffs (myself included).  I predicted the M's to lose 93 games, and instead they pleasantly surprised most of us and went 87-75.  However, the Mariners faded towards the stretch, their pitching fell apart while the hitting remained subpar, and they lost 9 of 12 in September before winning their last 4 games, which wasn't enough.  I predicted Jack Zduriencik to be fired, and he probably would have been had the Mariners lost 93 games.  But instead, his contract was extended, and it's not something I agree with.
                The Mariners were a competitive team  around the trade deadline this season for the first time in a while, so general manager Jack Zduriencik tried helping the offense by trading for three hitters: Chris Denorfia, Kendrys Morales, and Austin Jackson.  Not one of them really provided much pop in the lineup.  Denorfia was supposed to hit well off of lefties but didn't.  Morales was supposed to provide a presence at the cleanup spot but would often create an out between Cano and Seager.  And Jackson, while providing a good presence at the top of the lineup, good speed and good defense, didn't do enough to justify the trade nor to be the team's future in centerfield.  Jackson struggled mightily at times with strikeouts, and he is still looking for his first home run as a Mariner.  Despite these inadequate trades, the Mariners ownership decided to extend the contract of general manager Jack Zduriencik, merely because the Mariners remained relevant due to their excellent pitching.
                While the Mariners struggled at times, they did win more games than they lost, and it's because of a handful of players.  Felix Hernandez pitched perhaps his best baseball ever and will likely win his second Cy Young Award.  Hishashi Iwakuma, after coming off an injury, pitched great baseball until late in the season.  Chris Young wins the Surprise Player of the Year award, making the roster and pitching great as well.  And Robinson Cano proved to be worth the $240 million contract, hitting well and providing veteran leadership in the clubhouse.  And Kyle Seager played his best baseball and made the All-Star team, being the first home-grown position player to be an All-Star since Jose Lopez.  And let's not forget Dustin Ackley, who got hot in July and August and single-handedly won us a few ballgames.  Finally, closer Fernando Rodney set a Mariners team record with saves with 47, and the entire Mariners bullpen was just downright dominant.  So this team had some bright spots that hopefully can continue into 2015.
                The theme throughout this year was excellent pitching to go with some (hopefully) timely hitting.  But often times that hitting was simply not there.  This team again struggled with the bats, hitting under .250 as a team for the fifth straight season, despite Robinson Cano and his .314 average.  The hitting will continue to plague this team and prevent them from making the playoffs until it is fixed.  Cano is a good start.  Seager will only get better.  Ackley might be good enough to get his batting average even higher next season.  But who else will complement those guys?  Zunino constantly hit around the Mendoza line, but hopefully he'll improve for 2015.  Who is the answer at DH?  Are Jackson, LoMo, and Taylor the answers at their positions?  Time will tell.  But until the hitting is fixed, this team won't go far.  This team must (and I cannot stress this enough) acquire some decent bats this offseason, and no washed up hitters like Cory Hart or Jack Cust.  They're just never worth it.
                I made a post three and a half years ago saying this team needs to make the playoffs by 2015 or look like a playoff contender by then.  Well, the 2015 season will be here before we know it.  We'll have to see what Jack Zduriencik does in the offseason.  The Mariners obviously need another bat or two, either at an outfield spot, first base, or designated hitter.  The 2015 season will basically be a make-or-break type season for the M's, with Felix and Cano nearing the end of the prime of their playing careers.  They won't be able to put up the same numbers for much longer, so time is running short.  Zduriencik must do everything possible to put together the most competitive team he can for 2015, without selling the farm like his predecessor, Bill Bavasi.  A letdown season in 2015 would be killer and would set the team back another couple years. 
                Let's not forget manager Lloyd McClendon.  Had the Mariners made the playoffs, he'd be in serious contention for manager of the year.  He expected a lot of his players and benched them when necessary.  He fought for his players with umpires and he usually made the right call.  He also did his best to put together the best lineup possible, arranging guys and spots on a daily basis.  McClendon did the best he could with what he was given, and I give him kudos.  He's definitely the right man for the job.  He just needs to be given a bit more to work with.  When he's given the right tools to work with, we'll see how good Lloyd can make this team.  Lloyd's not the type of guy to yell at someone for doing something wrong; instead, you'll know you need to improve and make fewer mistakes just by Lloyd's demeanor and the disappointment he'd show.  If the Mariners collapse in 2015, Lloyd should not be held solely responsible like other managers have been in the past. 
                I'll give the Mariners a shot in 2015, at least at first.  Signing a good free-agent bat (or trading for one) will certainly give me and other Mariners fans reason to believe.  Certain young players that obviously won't have much Major League success should be let go, such as Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero.  They've had their shot; time to just write off their trades as failures and move on.  But in 2015 I am going to be extremely critical of this team and demanding.  For too long the Mariners have teased their fans with a winning season and then losing seasons the next few years after.  The Mariners haven't put together back-to-back winning seasons since 2002-2003.  In fact, the last two times the Mariners had winning seasons (2007 and 2009), the GM screwed up so bad that the following seasons were 100 loss campaigns.  Back to back WINNING seasons is what this team, this fanbase, this organization so desperately needs.  But what they need even more is a playoff team.  Let's put together not just a winning team for 2015, but a playoff- and championship-caliber team!  GO Mariners!

The Mariners Let Me Down... Again (And Z Should Be Fired)

If I were to die suddenly in the next few months, I'd want some of the Seattle Mariners to be my pallbearers, just so they could let me down one last time.  It's the 2014 season and once again, the Mariners let their fans down.  As I'm typing this, the Mariners only sit a 1/2 game out of a wild card spot, but have had a horrible start to the 2nd half.  They've lost 5 of their first 7 to start the 2nd half and lost their wild card spot.  Sure, they're not  far back, but we've seen this before so many times. 

This year felt different.  We had Cano, and Felix is having his best season.  Ever since the 8 game losing streak in late April, the Mariners had been playing really good baseball.  But there are just too many holes in the lineup and on this team to fix overnight.  Currently, there are roles to be filled at shortstop, DH, and ALL outfield positions.  You could almost say catcher as well, because Mike Zunino has struggled mightily at the plate to make contact. 

You would think almost 6 years into being a GM that over half of the team's lineup wouldn't need to be fixed or replaced, but it does.  Jack Zduriencik really has done a poor job of acquiring talent to fill needs.  James Jones is not the answer in centerfield.  He can get on base and wreck havoc, but he has zero power and doesn't play balls in the outfield too well.  He also needs to learn how to take a walk.  Ackley has really done nothing to live up to his #2 overall pick status, and Smoak and Montero continue to flop back and forth between the bigs and minors. 

The hitting on this team the past few seasons has been atrocious.  Since Jack arrived following the 2008 season, the team batting averages have been: .258, .236, .233, .234, .237, and .245 so far this season.  But, if you take out Robinson Cano, easily the team's best hitter and one of the very few competent hitters, the team batting average is just .233 for the year.  Other than Robinson Cano, why can't Jack Zduriencik recruit, find, sign, trade for, or acquire in any way some good hitting? 

Six years is long enough for a GM to put a team together, and the team Jack has put together is not good enough.  If the Mariners continue to slide and he cannot field us a winning (or even exciting) team, then he should be fired.  He has had long enough.  He has lost the faith of many Mariners fans, and he lost my faith long ago, when he signed a utility player to a $36 million contract. 

Hey, I may be wrong to give up on them at this point.  After all, they're only a 1/2 game out.  I could end up looking kinda silly for posting this when they play exciting baseball and maybe even make the playoffs.  But I know the Mariners.  I've watched them year in and year out since the late 90's.  This team is NOT built to win.  I cannot emphasize that enough.  Cano and Felix are elite players, but they are surrounded by cast-offs and minor league all-stars (which isn't a good thing).  Cano is just one man.  He alone cannot give us enough offensive support to stay competitive. 

Maybe help will get here someday with the last two first round picks in DJ Peterson and Alex Jackson.  But that won't be until 2016 at the earliest.  But this team right now is full of hitters who will NEVER be considered above average.  Let's count them, shall we?
Zunino, Sucre, Smoak, Hart, Morrison, Miller, Bloomquist, Romero, Jones, Ackley, Chavez.  That makes 11.  I almost counted Montero, and probably should have, but he's still young and needs to be given another shot.  But the players above are all poor hitters to varying degrees.  How bad, you ask?  Well let's look at their OPS.  A player's OPS is their on-base plus slugging percentage.  It is what I feel best determines a batter's worth to the lineup.  An OPS over .8 is above average, .7 to .8 is average, and under .7 is below average.  The players above have the following OPS's: .665, .364, .630, .626, .615, .599, .643, .557, .638, .653, and .618.  If that many guys are hitting below league average (most of them considerably below), then something is wrong in the front office.  You know what all of those players have in common?  They were all acquired by Jack Zduriencik. 

Unless the Mariners can miraculously start hitting and winning, it's time to fire Jack Zduriencik.  He may have saved our farm system, but he did not save the big league club.  Time for you to go, Jack. 


Update:

9/3/14: The Mariners still aren't out of it, being only 1 and 1/2 games out, but have given Jack Zduriencik a contract extension.  If this comes back to bite them in the bit, I refuse to be a fan of a team that hires boneheads like Z and Bavasi.  But, time will tell.  The Mariners still have issues, including hitting.  They gave Jack an extension just because he got lucky and the team is generating interest.  You wait until the season is over to assess.  If the Mariners slide in September, we'll all be thinking the same thing.  If they make the playoffs somehow, then call me wrong.  But this is not a playoff calibur team.  

2014 MLB and Mariner Predictions

The 2014 Major League Baseball season is almost upon us, and it's time for me to make my annual predictions.  I will of course predict how the Mariners will do this year, but I won't go player by player like other seasons.  Instead, I'll predict how they will do each month, with a final record at the end. 

2014 Standings, predicted:
* = Wild Card

NL East
Washington Nationals 102-60
Atlanta Braves* 99-63
Philadelphia Phillies 82-80
New York Mets 79-83
Miami Marlins 65-97
Summary: Nationals and Braves will fight for the division and it will more than likely go down to the final week of baseball.  Phillies and Mets should be decent enough to avoid 90 losses, while the Marlins won't be so fortunate. 

NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates 92-70
Cincinnati Reds 85-77
St. Louis Cardinals 84-78
Milwaukee Brewers 82-82
Chicago Cubs 70-92
Summary: I definitely see this as a competitive division, not really counting the Cubs.  Any of 4 teams could win the division, but with all the competition, there might not be a wild card from this division.  I don't see the defending NL Champs (Cardinals) having that good of a season.

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 95-67
San Francisco Giants* 89-73
Arizona Diamondbacks 84-78
Colorado Rockies 72-90
San Diego Padres 63-99
Summary: Another pretty competitive division, but Dodgers have too much star power to be overthrown.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Diamondbacks have a breakout season, but I'm predicting the Giants to have a bounce back season and claim a wild card spot.  They did, after all, win championships the past two even-numbered seasons (2010 and 2012). 

AL East
Baltimore Orioles 93-69
Boston Red Sox* 92-70
New York Yankees* 90-72
Tampa Bay Rays 85-77
Toronto Blue Jays 81-81
Summary: I don't know if an entire division has been at .500 or better, but this year the AL East has a shot at it.  This is easily the best division in baseball and may result in two wild card teams from this division, and who could ask for a better wild card matchup than Yankees Red Sox?

AL Central
Cleveland Indians 91-71
Detroit Tigers 86-76
Kansas City Royals 85-75
Chicago White Sox 69-93
Minnesota Twins 67-95
Summary: I just can't see the Detroit Tigers winning the AL Central... again.  I think it's time for the Indians (or hey, maybe even the Royals) to claim the division title.  The Tigers will regret trading Prince Fielder. 

AL West
Texas Rangers 89-73
Oakland Athletics 88-74
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 81-81
Seattle Mariners 69-93
Houston Astros 60-102
Summary: The Rangers are again loaded with talent, and I think this time they win the division.  I don't think anyone in this division will approach 95 or 100 wins.  As for the M's... well, you'll just have to read below.

NL Wild Card:
Giants at Braves: Giants win
Yankees at Red Sox: Red Sox win

NL Divisional:
Pirates at Dodgers: Dodgers
Giants at Nationals: Nationals

AL Divisional:
Red Sox at Orioles: Red Sox
Rangers at Indians: Rangers

NL Championship:
Dodgers at Nationals: Dodgers

AL Championship:
Red Sox at Rangers: Red Sox

World Series:
Dodgers over Red Sox

I mainly winged it when picking the playoff winners, but I like the team the Dodgers have put together.  Dodgers will be the 2014 MLB Champs, continuing the trend of an NL West team winning it all in even-numbered seasons.

SEATTLE MARINERS PREDICTIONS

The Mariners go into the 2014 campaign with a new manager, Lloyd McLendon, and a new superstar in Robinson Cano, who they shoveled out $240 million for.  But, I think it will all be for naught.  McLendon will (and should) survive after the season, but Jack Zduriencik will not.  Here's how I predict, month by month:

March 31/April: 12-15
The season will get off to a meager start, with the M's failing to get a sweep in the first month AGAIN.  They will salvage many series by winning one of the three of four games.
May: 13-16 (After: 25-31)
Another slightly below mediocre month with ownership, management, and coaches starting to press on the players, to no avail.
June: 11-16 (After: 36-47)
I can see a losing skid with road trips to Atlanta and Tampa Bay, followed by a home series against the Yankees.  They could make up ground with a couple series against the Padres, but I don't expect much.
July: 15-10 (After: 51-57)
July will more than likely be the best month for the M's, as they play Houston, the White Sox, the Twins at home, and the Mets at home.  Leaves a bit of optimism for August, but not much.
August: 8-19 (After: 59-76)
August is just BRUTAL to the M's.  Road series at Baltimore, Philly, Detroit, and Boston, with home series vs. the Braves, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Nationals.  This month will make or break the Mariners season, and I predict break.
September: 10-17 (After: 69-93)
September is also really tough for the M's, with 18 of their final 27 games on the road.  I can't imagine a scenario where the M's come away with a winning record in August or September.

Team Leaders:
Wins - Felix Hernandez (14)
Saves - Fernando Rodney (21)
Home Runs - Robinson Cano (24)
RBI - Kyle Seager (92)
Average - Robinson Cano (.292)

I just can't see the M's having success this year.  One man (Cano) cannot turn a team around on his own.  I predict Jack Z to be fired and a new GM brought in and yet even MORE waiting.  Ugh, waiting sucks. 

Why I Am Optimistic About the Mariners and their Future

Oh, the Mariners.  The team I love talking about the most.  Even though the Seahawks are currently doing better, it's hard to decide which team I love more.  I love the excitement the Seahawks bring, but the Mariners have a spot in my heart, because when I was an adolescent, they were good.  I grew up with Griffey, A-Rod, Edgar, Randy, and Ichiro.  I remember the 2001 season very clearly, even though it was half my life ago.  I love these guys, and that is why I talk about them so much.  I love them even when they lose.

So, that brings me to this post.  The Mariners currently sit at 18-20, just a game behind the Oakland A's for 2nd place.  Not too shabby for this part of the season.  We knew the first few months would be tough, with April having almost no days off and May being almost all on the road.  Still have half the month of May to work through, but if these guys can hang around .500 until the end of the month, they'll have a shot.

But it's not this season I am particularly excited about.  It's the future.  I said in a previous blog post that I would honestly and seriously stop caring about this team if they don't contend by 2015 or if they don't have a bright future by then (in other words, a judgment call).  I think I will remain a fan of this team, and here's why.

This team is filled with talent.  We already know about the Big Three (or Four, if you count Maurer).  But there is also some talent in hitting as well.  Nick Franklin could end up being the 2nd base answer we've been looking for if Ackley doesn't pan out.  Carlos Triunfel looks to finally be ready for the bigs and could be the next Miguel Tejada (without the controversy).  I'm excited about Carlos Peguero, who reminds me of a left-handed hitting Sammy Sosa.  And of course, there's the #2 overall pick from last year, catcher Mike Zunino.  Combine those guys with the guys we have now (who may or may not make it), such as Smoak, Ackley, Saunders, Seager, Montero, etc., and I think we'll be very competitive come 2015 or so.

There of course is the disappointment of Smoak, Ackley, and Montero.  Not one of them has performed up to expectations yet.  Each was acquired by Jack Zduriencik at great expense, two coming in costly trades where we gave up a very good pitcher, and one coming as the #2 overall pick.  Not all prospects pan out, of course.  But for every guy that should pan out and don't, there are guys that shouldn't pan out that do.  Tom Wilhelmsen came out of nowhere.  Kyle Seager wasn't expected to be a complete every day third baseman, yet he is.  Michael Saunders was thought to have been mediocre at best, but he keeps getting better.

We also have the makings of the future best bullpen in baseball.  Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps, and Yoervis Medina could all someday be All-Star relievers, with one or more of them being a closer at one point.

I'm excited about the future for this team.  I'll be even more excited if we make a playoff push this season, or finish close to 2nd in the division.  I'm curious as to how our lineup will turn out.  Here's what I predict, come 2015 or so:

1. Brad Miller, SS
2. Carlos Triunfel, 3B
3. Kyle Seager, 1B
4. Michael Morse/Jesus Montero/Kendrys Morales, DH
5. Michael Saunders, CF
6. Mike Zunino, C
7. Free Agent Acquisition, LF/RF
8. Julio Morban/Leon Landry, LF/RF
9. Nick Franklin, 2B

And our rotation:
1. Felix Hernandez, RHP
2. Free Agent LHP/Joe Saunders, LHP
3. Brandon Maurer, RHP
4. Danny Paxton, LHP
5. James Paxton/Taijaun Walker, LHP/RHP

Still a lot to take shape over the next couple years.  You might've noticed I didn't include Ackley or Smoak, and I only included Montero as a possibility.  I just don't see how they can pan out at this point, although if they did, that would certainly be a plus.  All I can see is us trading them for other players.

I'm excited, not just to see us succeed hopefully in the next few seasons, but also excited to see how our team takes shape.  It was such a wonder to see the current Seahawks team take shape.  I think what this team needs most is a hitter that is a leader in the clubhouse.  The team already has a leader and pitcher in Felix Hernandez, but what we really need is a leader and a hitter.  We had tons of those guys in the late 90's and early 2000's.  We might have to get a high profile free agent come 2015 or so, but pair them with the young studs we'll have by then and this team could be very, very good.  I can't wait.